NFL Week 14 Picks: Instant Access

A few weeks ago, I got a DVD that allows you to use your video game machine (in my case, a PS3, because I have a serious weakness for the Grand Theft) to pull down your Netflix queue over the Internet. It's fantastic and awful all at once, in that the timewaste potential from the glass teat just skyrocketed, really. I'm one of those people who can't be bothered to deal with DVRs, because all of the shows aren't on the same television, and watching what you want off a DVD avoids even the minor use of a remote. That's helpful. I could be filling the blog with those hands, or pushing weight, or riding the stationary bike to try to keep my middle agreed spread in check. That, or stuffing food down my maw. Besides, I have a billion remotes that don't work together, and children that don't put them away. Give me voice activated remotes, dammit!

Anyway, back to the access. It's scary how useful it is. You can easily lose the better part of an evening just plowing through a season or two of something that you heard good things about, and hey presto... there's a brand new timewaste, on top of the job and the parenting and the husbanding and the day job. I needed more timewaste the way Andy Reid needs more donuts.

It's also, really, like this stage of the NFL season. Every game is important now, between fantasy games (sixth place in both head to head leagues, fifth place and within striking distance of money in the points league, which means the constant gripping will continue), working over playoff ramifications, and trying to get better on the picks. For the past two weeks, thanks to the presence of New York teams on the Thursday night games, I've been getting just about the maximum number of NFL games, on top of the dual media market position of where I live. Well, who needs sleep, anyway? That might also be the reason why the picks are still under .500 for the year. But that just means I'm due, right? Right?

And with that... on to the picks!

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PITTSBURGH at Cleveland (+10)

Four straight losses for the defending champions, who have become utterly gutless on defense with S Troy Polamalu sidelined. This man should garner MVP votes, really; who knew that without him, the world champions would be gutless kittens who blow fourth quarter leads to Bruce Freaking Gradkowski? Yes, I am a wee bit bitter for blowing a fantasy pick on this defense and special teams. Why not give up another kickoff return, ya mooks? The last time I saw a champion defend its crown with less intensity, Shaquille O'Neal was involved.

Cleveland has shown some spunk recently, and covered late in a don't quit game at home against the Chargers. It's entirely possible that the Steelers just aren't very good this year, and shouldn't be trusted with a double digit road spread against anyone, even a monstrously bad team like the Mangins. But at some point, the Steelers actually have to play up to their talent level. I'm betting it's this week, especially since they still have something to play for. Besides, I still think something of Mike Tomlin, and I'm counting on the Thursday night game, as usual, to stink on ice.

Steelers 31, Browns 13

NEW ORLEANS at Atlanta (NL)

This game was everyone's pick a few weeks ago as the game in which the Saints would finally lose. Road game, loud dome, motivated team against a club that would have nothing but perfection to play for. But after last week's Houdini job on the road in DC, there's a palpable feel that maybe NoLa does go undefeated this year. Besides, the Falcons are still going to be without QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, multiple members of the secondary, and a coaching staff that understands that you don't call fourth down runs into the line after the previous three didn't work. I'll update this pick later depending on what the line does, but in the meantime, I like the Saints to finally show up in the first half, and just don't see the Falcons scoring enough points to keep it close.

Saints 34, Falcons 20

GREEN BAY at Chicago (+3)

The Packers are coming off their big but brutally ugly MNF win over Baltimore, while the Bears stumbled past St. Louis. If you believe in trap games, take the Bears over the Packers, who have rattled off enough semi-quality wins (Dallas, Baltimore) on their recent streak to rekindle hope in Cheese Land. Personally, I don't believe in trap games, and the reason why hope is alive for Green Bay is that QB Aaron Rodgers has enough time to only take two awful sacks a game, rather than six. There's also the fact that the Packers have a very opportunistic defense, which could mean a few more monstrous mistakes for star-crossed QB Jay Cutler and his collection of meek wideouts.

I dislike the MNF home team on the road, but not as much as I dislike the team that's getting close to the Give Up portion of the season, and that's the Bears. They need a RT, a WR, maybe a new coach, a healthy Brian Urlacher and a half dozen other things that they don't have right now.

Packers 34, Bears 17

NY Jets at TAMPA BAY (NL)

A great opportunity for New York, now that the AFC East has gone to the Up For Grabs state, but it's tough to see the road team coming up too big here, especially with starting QB Matt Sanchez hobbling around on two knee braces and clueless Kellen Clemens looming in the background. It's so bad that I'm actually grabbing the Bucs as a fantasy defense in one of my fantasy matchups, which is going to be one of those decisions that I'll regret as soon as I see Thomas Jones ripping off 100-plus yards. But that's not always indicative of a lot of points, really.

For the Bucs, they need to get rookie QB Josh Freeman to stop throwing it to the wrong laundry, and I'd also recommend figuring out some way to keep WR Antonio Bryant healthy. When he is, TE Kellen Winslow Jr. can do some things. Like turn the ball over in the opponent's red zone, rather than their own. This one won't be pretty.

Bucs 17, Jets 16

MIAMI at Jacksonville (-3)

The Jaguars are undergoing the sleepiest wild-card run in AFC history. No one pays attention to them, likes anyone on the team but RB Maurice Jones-Drew, or could even name more than five players. (I was able to get to six, but only because I knew the name of Jones-Drew's handcuff.) Given the economy and the fact that the league should have never put a team on the Flordia panhandle, the team doesn't draw for sour apples, and they are also completely gutless on the road. And yet here they are, in the driver's seat for postseason thanks to the Steeler collapse, and maybe even a winner in the first round, because your division winners this year are going to include three out of four shaky prospects. What a country.

As for Miami, with RB Ronnie Brown on the shelf, the most Wildcatty team ever has gone to a traditional set, with a corresponding bump in production from young guy QB Chad Henne. I still think his WRs are Thrash-Pinkston-esque, but at least his offensive line gives them time to get far enough away from the line of scrimmage that accidental separation from the secondary is possible, and Henne's got the arm to do some things. 2011, when I saw this team ruling the division, might be coming early.

Dolphins 24, Jaguars 16

DETROIT at Baltimore (-13)

Just a relentless barrage of penalties last week in Green Bay for the Carrion, who must hate playing on national television. Five pass interference penalties in one game was the most in the league in eight years. I don't think I've ever seen Charm City in a nationally televised regular season game not take it from the zebras hard, and while I get that this kind of team and defense will always have issues with the stripes, this is just crazed after a while.

But the bigger problem for the Not Colts is that QB Joe Flacco has reverted to a guy with fixation issues. When you watch these guys take the field, it's almost like they get stuck on the repeat button. If TE Todd Heap gets a ball, he get another, then another, then goes back to being an afterthought. They force feed all of the RBs with multiple touches, to the point where I'm calling out the scree to RB Ray Rice before it happens. Same with the deep outs to WR Derrick Mason, who was so thoroughly covered by the Packers Rod Woodson last week that I thought he was trying to get Woodson some MVP votes. It's one thing to have a bad offense; it's another to have a bad offense that's predictable and easy to defend, despite strong elements. Someone's got some 'splaining to do down there.

For Detroit, the Stafford to Johnson connection has finally arrived, and the number here is too big to swing given the Ravens' flag and injury woes. I'm really not seeing the upset, but these Lions can do some things, and don't usually quit.

Ravens 24, Lions 17

SEATTLE at Houston (-6)

The uncertainty here is that Texans QB Matt Schaub is a little questionable, and without the freshly IR'd Steve Slaton (thanks so much, SS, for your murder of my stacked roto league team), plus seven losses and a dead coach walking, will the home team show any heart? On the other hand, Seattle is gutless on the road, has a terrible offensive line, keeps giving the ball to the wrong running back (the execrable Julius Jones, rather than the promising Justin Forsett), and will face a team that routinely puts up numbers against dogs. It also helps that Houston has talent, the best WR in the league, and a home field that looks good a few times a year. This is one of those times, and one of those weeks that sucks people into thinking that the Texans are a team on the rise, rather than a mediocrity that pounds the jobbers, though maybe the tease has gone on too long to convince anyone anymore.

It would also help loads if QB Matt Schaub can go from the start of this one, rather than making everyone look at Sexy Rexy. Ye gads, aren't Brooks Bollinger and JP Losman available? I keep starting WR Nate Burleson in one fantasy league, mostly because I like hurting myself. A lot. Let's go for Seattle to cover, just because when QB Matt Hasselbeck has time to throw, he can still do it.

Texans 24, Seattle 21

Denver at INDIANAPOLIS (-7)

The Broncos come into this game off back to back blowout wins over the Giants and Chiefs, and are next up on the role of seeing who can beat the Colts. While they've got some of the elements that you'd look for -- solid rookie RB, physical WR, pass catching TE, reasonable coverage secondary -- I just can't imagine Kyle Orton going into a loud dome against an undefeated team and having it end in a win. Can you?

For the Colts, the less interesting sister to the Brees Saints, this game does have many of the elements of trap, and if the line were ten, I'd e strongly tempted to go the other way. But it ain't, QB Peyton Manning has built WR Pierre Garcon into the usual #1A WR that the team needed opposite WR Reggie Wayne, and the speed defensive line should be able to have its way on the fast rug. This week, the Broncos will put fingers in the dike to stop the WRs, and get bled to death by the thousand cuts of TE Dallas Clark. That's because Manning truly does not care how he cuts you, so long as you bleed. And bleed. And bleed. At least Bronco Fan has seen worse games than this one in this series.

Colts 34, Broncos 24

BUFFALO at Kansas City (-1)

Two teams going nowhere, with almost no relevance to any larger story. Buffalo is in the midst of the world's slowest and least interesting location shift, as the good people of Toronto welcome them with a mighty shrug. Kansas City is the bad team that no one notices, since they aren't historically bad, interesting, or in any kind of a media hotbed. Both teams are old-time AFC franchises that haven't had interesting players for years now, and most football fans would be hard pressed to name more than five players off either club -- and that's only if you play fantasy.

As for the actual game itself, give me the road Bills, who at least have shown an occasional pulse under interim coach Perry Fewell. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson and Terrell Owens could all put up some numbers here and help to fool the Bills into thinking that they should keep their jobs in 2010. See, Bills Fan, you lose even when you win.

Bills 24, Chiefs 17

CINCINNATI at Minnesota (-7)

Ah, the Brett Favre December collapse. Too much to say about one game? Not if you've actually seen said game. Bad Old Favre, the guy who would throw a near pick and then follow it up with a real pick, was back and in full effect, and with RB Adrian Peterson not looking right (between the fumbles and the injuries, he's rapidly giving back his high fantasy status), the Vikings are starting to look like the vulnerable team in that NFC Championship dream television matchup for the networks.

Meanwhile, the Bengals took care of business against a terrible team and now have to go to a loud road dome and try to keep their push for a high seed alive in the AFC. I don't like them to win -- ever since WR Chris Henry went down, this offense became a whole lot easier to defend, which is what happens when you have no consistent deep threat -- but I do think that RB Cedric Benson can grind out enough first downs against a suddenly depleted Vikings defense to keep it close. Watch for the Bengals to try to exploit Minnesota's banged up LB corps with screens, and to regret not having a pass catching TE in this millennium.

Vikings 24, Bengals 20

Carolina at NEW ENGLAND (-14)

A back-up QB. A team that's playing out the string. An angry Belichick and Brady, and a Pats team that needs the win desperately. And yet the line is just 14, because that's all it has to be now to get even money going in both directions. Oh, how the mighty Massholes have fallen.

While the Pats have certainly reached that red giant star phase -- bloated, untrustworthy and dangerous -- the Panthers are just bad, and won't be able to run the ball so much that they can take the air out of the football. Welcome to the last false summer of the Patriot Empire.

Patriots 34, Panthers 16

WASHINGTON at Oakland (-1)

Take the team that snatched defeat from the jaws of victory with a fold for the ages, or the unlikely upstart that have managed to pull down a handful of stunning winds despite being utterly dysfunctional? Tough call, really. Adding to the fun is that both teams have coaching hires that no other franchise would make, lots of talent (high draft picks for the Raiders, big dollar free agents for the Skins), and mostly unwatchable offenses. Finally, mix in the history (once upon a time, these teams fought for a Super Bowl) and the idea that if you take the home team, you are betting on Bruce Gradkowski and his non-flying circus, or Jason Campbell on the road with his third string running back.

Eenie, meanie, meiny... Redskins. But only because I'm officially sticking a fork into The Asomugha Effect, and the Raiders can't be trusted to win back to back games.

Redskins 17, Raiders 13

St. Louis at TENNESSEE (-13)

How many roto teams limped into the playoffs on the free agent stylings of Vince Young? Untold numbers, really, but they are going to get huge value this week against the woebegone Rams, who are going to stack the box in a hopeless bid to get beaten by people who aren't RB Chris Johnson, then wind up getting taken out by him later. The Titans are probably dead in the playoff race, but don't tell them that; they really did have a puncher's chance against Indy last week, despite not remembering to cover WR Pierre Garcon until he had ran them ragged.

For the Rams, RB Stephen Jackson will keep on keeping on, and if you are wondering why he's still playing so hard when his team has absolutely nothing to recommend it... well, I don't know why either. They'll score some points late, because the Titans' defense really isn't that good, but they'll also probably give up a TAInt, too. In other words, they'll be the 2009 Rams.

Titans 34, Rams 20

SAN DIEGO at Dallas (-3)

I can't tell you how much I enjoy the annual Dallas December collapse. Like Sideshow Bob stepping on a rake, it just doesn't get old. Do we have an inopportune vacation trip for QB Tony Romo that causes old school football people to grumble about priorities? Check. How about owner Jerruh Jones slamming doors, growling at strangers and basically going into Thwarted Supervillian Mode? Got it. A befuddled look on the face of coach Wade Philips, followed up overwrought tough talk that no one will take seriously? Right on schedule. And the only difference between this year and past years is that we (a) can't blame the whole thing on Terrible Owens, and (b) everyone's in on the joke that this happens every year. Somehow, that makes it even funnier!

For the Chargers, the release of WR Chris Chambers seems to have reminded Norvalicious that he's got the best TE in the game in Antonio Gates, who has been going crazy Broadway style for the better part of a month now, after spending much of the year as being just another guy. On the road in Dallas, Norvalicious would also do well to be patient with his running game, which will keep QB Phillip Rivers from making the big mistake that could give Dallas the confidence it needs to stop wrapping its collective throat with its hands. The Chargers have the better line play and secondary depth to beat Dallas on the merits; the trick will be to avoid the sacksu, fumbles and picks that could swing things the other way. Especially in the first half, where the Cowboys usually struggle, especially on offense. I'm kind of hoping that San Diego has this game far enough in command that punter Mike Scifres finally hits the board. It's been one of 2009's real disappointments that this hasn't happened. A lot.

Chargers 34, Dallas 24

PHILADELPHIA at NY Giants (-1)

Six weeks ago in Philadelphia, the Eagles burned the Giants to the ground with a balanced offensive attack, a wilding defense, and Eli Manning going all turnover machine. Ten months ago, in a playoff game in the Meadowlands against a Giants team that had the bye, the Eagles dominated in a 23-11 game that was punctuated by QB Donovan McNabb scrambling for some clinching yards, then picking up a phone on the sideline to ask the Giants front office how his ass tastes. Prior to that game, the Eagles took out the Giants in New Jersey by a score of 20-14, in a game that was notable for Brian Westbrook putting Antonio Pierce in his rear-view mirror, and for Plaxico Burress auto-ejecting himself from non-incarcerated society earlier in the week.

Notable in all three of those games was the fact that New York did not do much at all outside of garbage time, that the final score didn't really show the scope of the domination, and that Eli was an overrated game manager with a noodle arm and a proclivity for game-ending picks. You know, just liked what he seemed to be before this Playoff Season of Luck to end the Perfectriot season. And as we're now looking at 180 minutes of football, with two games in which Big Blue was said to be looking for Big Revenge... well, I'm not going to say anything more for fear of The Jinxing, but let's just say that Tom Coughlin's got a lot more distressing tape to look at these days than Andy Reid.

Look for McNabb to continue to smile his goofy smile and spread the wealth, and for the Eagles secondary to welcome back CB Joselio Hanson just in time to cover a worrisome matchup with third WR Domenik Hixon. The Eagles are erratic enough to lose to anyone, and the power combo of RB Brandon Jacobs, WR Hakeem Nicks and TE Kevin Boss can provide real problems for this defense. But not nearly as much as what Blue faces on the defensive side of the ball, where the line doesn't get to the QB the way they used to do. So long as the Eagles don't put the ball on the ground or fail to protect the QB, I'm seeing them win this game. Fairly handily, even. (And if they don't, yes, it's all my fault for picking them and feeling confident.)

Eagles 31, Giants 16

ARIZONA at San Francisco (+3.5)

The Cardinals just keep coming, don't they? After a decisive win last week against the Vikings, they seem to be hitting on all cylinders, making a late run at the #2 spot and a first round bye, and being a better team than last year's playoff darlings. And so long as they keep QB Kurt Warner in a non-concussed state, and WR Anquan Boldin from recurring ankle injuries, I really do think they can get all the way to the Final Four. Quite a late career for Captain Jebus, really.

For the Niners, they were a road win in Seattle (didn't happen), a Cards loss to the Vikings (really didn't happen) and seven days of local hype away from being convinced that they were playing for the division. Harsh reality like that should happen after the holidays, not before. At least they look like they know who their 2010 weapons are now; quick game manager throws from QB Alex Smith, middle deep balls to the surprising TE Vernon Davis, and slowly getting the ball more to WR Michael Crabtree to support fading but still effective RB Frank Gore. The defense isn't horrible, either. Too bad that the last week went so badly for them, and that the class of the division has the best WR tandem in the league. San Francisco will be far more intriguing in 2010.

Cardinals 27, Niners 17

Last week: 8-8

Year to date: 90-98-3