NFL Picks Week 13: Expansion

More rumblings this week about the seemingly inevitable 18-game regular season, which we will supposedly get when the preseason is eradicated, helmets are improved enough to prevent rampant concussery (um, lots of luck with that, folks), and the Players Association is shown enough money to purchase a relatively well known island.

As a fantasy nerd and picks junkie who watches enough NFL football to consider it a significant lifestyle problem, I should be all for this, and anything that gets rid of the preseason is all right in my book, really. But just keep in mind that when this goes into effect -- and yes, it's a when, because raising the television and ticket revenue by 10% is a win for all concerned -- it won't be a panacea. You will see more players taking off games against weak opponents with dubious injuries, more use of backups in blowouts, and more good teams treating the last four weeks of the year as a de facto exhibition game.

No matter what, it's also going to cause more injuries, more uncertainty, and more disparity, as the good organizations rise over the middling with practice squad winners. And while you think it's going to save you from dull August days, just remember that with a larger schedule comes more from the teams that you don't want to watch, too. Browns and Rams fans probably want to see the season contracted, not expanded.

But at least it would keep 1,000 yard rushers alive in the Age of Committee. We'll need to bump the schedule to 20 in another decade, though.

And with that, on to the picks!

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NY JETS at Buffalo (+3)

A true toss-up game, and a game that's begging for a sudden snowstorm to add some (any?) visual interest. Alas, while there might be flurries, there most likely won't be enough to save this one from dreary. A damn shame; wild amounts of snow, especially in the HD age, makes almost any game entertaining.

The Jets are in full Game Manager mode now with QB Matt Sanchez, to the extent that if the RBs ever see fewer than eight in the box, it's probably a third and long. And while WR Braylon Edwards made a big splash when he came to New York, he's gone back to being the inconsistent drop machine that Browns Fan does not miss. With the other weapons here being Jerricho Cotchery and Dustin Keller, the Jets just don't have enough to wet nurse Sanchez against good defenses. This team misses Leon Washington something terrible; he provided safe and easy yards to keep drives going and a rookie QB confidence high.

The Bills have looked a lot better under interim coach Perry Fewell, who has wisely chosen RB Fred Jackson and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick over RB Marshawn Lynch and QB Trent Edwards, not that Jackson and Ryno are any kind of long-term solution. The moves have given the running game a spark and resurrected WR Terrible Owens, so Buffalo is no longer playing with an abomination of an offense. Combined with the home field and Sanchez being a turnover machine, that would point you to the home team.

But this week, CB Darelle Reavis will make Owens disappear -- the job he did last week on Carolina's Steve Smith was a ball gag short of being illegal in many states -- and the Jets run defense will get it done. When you hold the Panthers' DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart to 75 yards (on 25 carries), I'm not expecting Jackson to do any damage, even at home.

Which leaves us with Jets RB Thomas Jones and the New Yorkers better line play, and my pick of the Jets. In all likelihood, the first team to see QB TAInt wins, but if those cancel out, it's the Jets in a grind.

Jets 16, Bills 10

PHILADELPHIA at Atlanta (+4.5)

The almost completely irrelevant sub-plot: Michael Vick's return to Atlanta. If you had told me at the start of the year that Vick's impact on the Eagles would be three to five mostly pointless plays a week, some occasional third down option conversions, and a contributing factor to the club's overall maddening inconsistency... well, I'd be less than thrilled. I was just hoping for a guy who might be more ready than Kevin Kolb in the event of an injury. But maybe he actually makes some plays this week. If nothing else, it will be intriguing to see if the Falcons crowd cheers, boos, or just sits on their hands when he gets in.

As for the game over the sideshow, I don't enjoy the Eagles being the favorite here. A road team in a dome, especially when they are as wildly inconsistent and beat up as the Birds are (short list: RB Brian Westbrook, WR DeSean Jackson, TE Brent Celek, maybe even WR Jason Avant) is not a wildly appealing team to lay points with.

But at least they aren't alone in their injury misery. Atlanta is likely to miss RB Michael Turner and QB Matt Ryan. They've also got a pretty brutal secondary... but TE Tony Gonzalez is plainly terrifying here, and this offensive line can give QB Chris Redman and RB Jason Snelling some time and space to do things.

I like the Eagles here for just one very big reason: QB Donovan McNabb, who is quietly having one of his best stretches as a pro. (Also, I just don't see Redman pulling this game off, especially with CB Asante Samuel making WR Roddy White disappear. Gonzalez can't do enough to win this game. I hope.)

Eagles 27, Falcons 20

ST. LOUIS at Chicago (-8.5)

Kyle Boller! Jay Cutler! Betting the over on interceptions! It's a game that no one wants to see, and independent of the turnover battle, there's the quietly awesome year being turned in by Rams RB Stephen Jackson. He's going to win some MVP votes, because without him, I think the Rams are folded with Arena Ball.

A month ago, the Cardinals destroyed the Bears on the ground at home, but a week ago in Minnesota, they actually handled RB Adrian Peterson pretty well, so there's no clear pattern there... and for the Bears, RB Matt Forte hasn't been able to get on track all year. There's some guy in an Orlando Pace jersey that's doing horrible things to that guy's reputation.

It also doesn't help either QB that the WRs for both teams are erratic at best. Donnie Avery and Devin Hester would be fine as #3 slot guys, but as #1s, they just can't get consistent separation, and neither is very good at fighting for the ball to prevent picks. I won't pretend that Cutler or Boller are very good this year, but I'm not sure if you put Drew Brees and Peyton Manning in this situation that the won-loss records would look any different.

As for the pick... let's just say that I'm not liking the Rams outdoors. Or indoors. Maybe they'd be better underwater, on in outer space. But expecting Cutler to cover a big number is just slightly less appetizing than expecting Boller to keep it close. Stephen Jackson, you are our only hope.

Bears 24, Rams 20

Detroit at CINCINNATI (-13)

For three straight weeks, the Bengals play a terrible team that they should dominate. Last week, they more or less controlled the Browns, but didn't do enough through the air to put the game away, despite a ton of yards from backup RBs Larry Johnson and Bernard Scott. Meanwhile, Detroit was stumbling through their annual Thanksgiving loss, with QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson looking hobbled by injury, and the rest of the roster looking hobbled by being Detroit Lions.

I suspect that this is the week that RB Cedric Benson comes back to put up serious numbers, and QB Carson Palmer does major damage with WR Chad Ochocinco, because the Lions just can't guard anyone. I'm also just not seeing Stafford being healthy enough, or getting enough time to throw. But the Bengals are good at sleeping on bad teams, so while they should make the cover, don't expect a lot more than that. I'm hoping for a Benson pad the stats late touch to do the deed, really.

Bengals 31, Lions 16

NEW ORLEANS at Washington (+9.5)

Historically, teams with big home wins on MNF tend to struggle the next week, especially when they have to go on the road. This one has trap game written all over it, as the Saints demolished the Patriots to stay undefeated, while the Redskins blew an 8-point fourth quarter lead on the road in Philadelphia.

But I just don't believe in trap games; they are the kind of thing that you always notice when it happens, but never when it doesn't. It's like talking about how a missed extra point always comes back to haunt you. Not always, and when it doesn't happen, you forget all about it.

That's not to sell the Washington defense short. They hit hard (last week, they gave out concussions for DeSean Jackson and ligament damage for Brent Celek), and don't quit. But they can be beaten deep, and so long as Albert Haynesworth is likely to take a miss, they won't be able to keep the Saints from moving the sticks with Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell.

But the real reason why I'm taking the Saints here is the defense. They are opportunistic, get after the QB, and aren't exactly facing the Montana Niners here. And if you hear a large number of Saints fans cheering on their team here, don't be too surprised: Skins Fan likes to sell their tickets to fans of the opposing laundry, and this year, it's hard not to be a fan of this laundry.

Saints 24, Redskins 13

TAMPA BAY at Carolina (-6.5)

Hey, we finally found out what Jake Delhomme had to do to get benched! It's a shame, really: after the last four picks last week against the Jets, Jake's got 18 for the year (against 8 TDs). I was hoping he'd get to 30, really. When you are pursuing greatness, you just have to go for it, really. (The official cause for replacement is a broken finger. Like Jake's really been well served by having ten functioning digits this year. Maybe the broken finger is the one that's been causing all of those picks.)

The road Bucs have alternated between frisky (close but not quite losses to the Falcons and Dolphins) and roadkill (New Orleans), with rookie QB Josh Freeman showing more than a few signs that he's going to be good. It's hard to imagine a 1-10 team really coming through on the road, and there's a reasonable chance that the Panthers just come out with an olly olly oxenfree kind of breakout game now that they've gone to QB by Not Jake. But I just like Freeman to WR Antonio Bryant more than QB Matt Moore to WR Steve Smith for the Bucs. As a matter of fact, it's not even close.

Bucs 24, Panthers 17

HOUSTON at Jacksonville (-1)

Perhaps the two most maddening teams in the NFL, and they share the same division. Jacksonville has been terrible on the road (with the lone exception of the Maurice Jones-Drew sit win in New York). Houston can't put back to back solid performances together, and can't seem to sustain drives with their baffling committee running game (honestly, how bad does Chris Brown have to look to not get touches?). Neither team's defense should be trusted, and while Jacksonville has won at home, it's hard to see why, really.

In a de facto elimination game, I'll take Houston and Matt Schaub, rather than the quietly terrible David Garrard. There's also this: WR Andre Johnson, who really doesn't get nearly enough looks to match his talent. This week, that changes, if for no other reason than this Jacksonville team got torn apart by Alex Smith and Vernon Davis. Schaub and Johnson are a bit better than that, really.

Texans 31, Jaguars 17

Tennessee at INDIANAPOLIS (-7)

Is this the week that the smoke and mirrors cease? Time is getting short for the Colts to actually lose a game this year and give head coach Jim Caldwell the chance to rest his players. With a three game lead over two other teams in the AFC, there's almost no real chance of them blowing the #1 seed, and with players like Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Joseph Addai and Dallas Clark all in need of a break, it's almost as if they'd welcome a loss.

However, the Titans aren't that kind of team for the Colts; they are a division rival that, unlike the Texans and Jaguars, have actually put a hurting on the home team from time to time. Indy would like to end the resurgent Titans playoff hopes. and at home, with a good defense and a loud dome crowd, I think they get it done. But betting against RB Chris Johnson and his 6.4 (!) yards per carry average is plainly terrifying.

Colts 27, Titans 16

DENVER at Kansas City (+5)

The 7-4 Broncos against the no longer good at home 3-8 Chiefs; this one's easy, right? Not so fast. The Broncos have lost four out of their last five, while the Chiefs are 2-3... but while Denver was punking the Giants at home on Thanksgiving Eve, the Chiefs were getting absolutely rolled in San Diego.

This one is also a battle between two wunderkind coaches, which generally doesn't work out. Go with the visitors here, if for no other reason then that they can run the ball well and have strong weapons at WR and TE. I also suspect that the Broncos can overcome a bad play or two, while the Chiefs just seem limited. That, and CB Champ Bailey will prevent WR Chris Chambers from making the 3-4 big plays that the Chiefs will need to stay in the game.

Broncos 24, Chiefs 17

NEW ENGLAND at Miami (+5)

Why is New England favored by five here? They only won by 10 at home against the Dolphins a month ago, they are on the road in a stadium where they frequently struggle, and they are coming into this game after getting absolutely eviscerated on MNF in New Orleans. On the other hand, the Dolphins are a sub-.500 team that just lost by 17 to a terrible Bills team, so there's that, really. Had Miami merely taken care of business, they'd be playing for the division lead here, rather than just harboring impossible dreams for the post-season.

Last month, Randy Moss lit up the Dolphins to the tune of 147 yards, and it's hard to see how that will change in good weather in South Florida. I also get the sense that RB Ricky Williams is starting to wear out from the #1 role that he acquired after RB Ronnie Brown went down for the year.

Finally, there's this. I'm just not ready to write off the Patriots as a complete fraud and paper tiger, despite the fact that they are 7-4 without any big wins over quality teams, and have given up 87 points in the last three games, despite having a middle game against the pedestrian Jets. Against the Dolphins, I think they wake up the echoes a little bit, and use surprisingly OK RB Lawrence Maroney to lead a clock killing offense. But don't worry, Masshole Haters: this team isn't winning a playoff game. Not this year, and not with that defense.

Patriots 34, Dolphins 27

Oakland at PITTSBURGH (NL)

A Papa Spank game if there ever was one. Oakland is 1-4 on the road, start Bruce Gradkowski at QB and no one whose name you need to know at WR, and facing a furious and desperate Steelers team that will be getting back QB Ben Roethlesberger. And while the Steelers defense and special teams aren't what they should be, especially with S Troy Polamalu sidelined, it's not as if the Raiders are going to be able to take advantage.

On offense, even if the home team starts QB Dennis Dixon again, I don't think It will matter, because Oakland is terrible at stopping the run, and Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is going to hand it off 30+ times in this game. With very good results indeed. After the next two weeks, the Steelers will be back to 8-5, in command for a wild card, and looking very much like their old selves. The same goes, in a not nearly as happy way, for Oakland.

Pittsburgh 31, Raiders 6

SAN DIEGO (-13) at Cleveland

Now this is the way the Chargers should look. With RB LaDanian Tomlinson scoring from in tight, TE Antonio Gates having a monster game, and the defense finally looking like something that has talented players, the best talent in the AFC is making their move for the #2 seed now, though the schedule is going to get a lot harder after this week. Enjoy Clown Time while you can, Norvalicious.

The Browns went back to their three yards and a cloud of pointlessness throwing game last week in Cincy, as QB Brady Quinn went 15 for 34 for 100 yards. No, seriously. If you can see the point in this offensive attack, you might be the only one. By the time this year is over, Quinn is going to be convinced that a 20 yard slant or out is just out of his weight class. It's not easy going 1-10, folks, even with an offense that averages just over 11 points a game. Ye gads.

Chargers 41, Browns 9

DALLAS at NY Giants (-1.5)

Quitting time for the Giants, who have been .500 or worse for a solid year now, have a terrible (for them) defense, and are starting to make health related excuses for the wildly overpaid Eli Manning. This week, it's win or play scrubs time for a home game against the 8-3 Cowboys, who have managed to play bad football and win for good portions of their schedule, and have their own history of December collapses to overcome.

I like the road team here because I think they will run it for at least 150 yards, and be able to salt the game away on the ground late. While New York does have some weapons in the passing game, and the Cowboys can be had, Manning has rarely been at his best at home in the late regular season. The Cowboys have also started to develop secondary weapons (second TE Martellus Bennett, wildcat RB Tashard Choice) that have paid off, unlike the Giants. Look for the Cowboys to spring a couple of big plays, the Giants to rely too much on Eli, and the visitors to grind the clock and close late.

Cowboys 23, Giants 20

San Francisco at SEATTLE (-1)

Hey, remember all of those words that I wrote last week about how the NFC West teams play each other four times a year when no one is looking, just to make writing this picks column seem like Catholic penance? (No words on how that's matched by reading it, please. My fragile sense of self-worth is always at risk in situations like this.)

Well, here we go again.

You want the home team because Seattle is good at home, and San Francisco is not going to be able to put together back to back wins. It also helps that the Seahawks have finally started giving the ball to their best RB (Justin Forsett, who has quicks), even though it took freaking forever to move on from the Julius Jones Era. But if the Niners can get a lead and send blitzers at the increasingly calcifying Matt Hasselbeck, you're not going to be loving the pick.

Look for the Seattle defense to give a short field on an early Alex Smith mistake, and unlike last week in San Francisco against the Jags, the opponent won't keep turning it over in the red zone. The Niners won't quit, but they also won't win.

Seahawks 24, Niners 20

Minnesota at ARIZONA (NL)

Your SNF game and a flex play, and a small word on Kurt Warner... gah, grr, hate hate hate. I get that concussions are serious business, but really, you practice all week and then bail from day of symptoms? If this keeps up, we're going to see 40 to 50 guys sitting every week, and fantasy leagues decided by the likes of Matt Leinart. No one wants to see that.

Minnesota had another ho-hum crushing last week, putting the Bears out of everyone's misery. If you are looking for chinks in Favre's armor, there just isn't any. He's not even going to see a game in the elements, given how the Vikings are a near lock for a top 2 seed now, and even in the event of a road NFC championship game in New Orleans, he's still in a nice and warm dome for his old bones.

But this week, despite the fact that I'm not (yet) getting points, I like the Cardinals. They've ran the ball just well enough to keep teams honest. Had Vince Young not gotten very lucky last week, they'd be riding high on another road win against a quality opponent, even with a backup QB; instead, they'll come in needing this one, which is really not the case for Minnesota. A night game is still rare for Cardinals Fan, who will be loud and proud for this one. And the Cards may actually do something that very few teams have done against Favre this year: generate pressure with the base defensive package. I still believe that when you do that, picks and fumbles will follow.

So for the second straight week, I'm putting my pick out early before the Warner/Leinart ten point swing decision is made, mostly because I can't shake the idea that Brett Favre has to actually not be perfect every freaking week. Honestly, it's getting kind of crazy. Was he dogging it for the past decade? Is he transferring all of his turnover powers to the secretly suspect Adrian Peterson, who keeps putting the ball on the carpet as he pisses away his #1 fantasy RB status? (It's Chris Johnson in a walk right now, AP. Get angry.)

Cardinals 31, Vikings 24

BALTIMORE at Green Bay (-3)

Do you believe in the suddenly surging Packers? I don't, or at least, not enough: the secondary is still banged up, the offensive line hasn't fixed things so much as played easier teams, they still don't run the ball well enough, and their special teams are just ordinary. They also have the Andy Reid disease of failing to use their timeouts well, and struggling in the red zone. Maybe there's just something about teams that throw it too much, no?

Against a Ravens team that actually won a close one last week, I suspect they'll score points but fail to get off the field, especially against Ray Rice and La'Ron McClain, who Baltimore coach John Harbaugh has wisely conserved for the stretch run, having used up Willis McGahee on games that didn't mean as much. Besides, prosperity just doesn't agree with the Packers this year, and even at home, I just don't trust this defense very much. (I also don't trust the Ravens defense all that much either, but at least they can run the ball and do some things on special teams.)

Ravens 27, Packers 23

Last week: 6-10

Year to date: 82-90-3