Week 15 NFL Picks: Merry And Dead

One of the great (well, OK, not great: pretty terrible, actually) signs of getting older is not being able to keep up with stuff. When you become one of those people who look at the calendar and lose it because there is just X days left until Christmas, that's a sign that Life Is Passing You By. Better get your butt out to the stores now now now now NOW, while you still have a chance of buying something to convince the people in your life that you are not as amoral as you really are.

There is also this: Christmas, over the course of your life, is a sine wave. It means the world to you when you are a kid, because it's the one time of the year when you get stuff at the same time as your friends. So even if you didn't get the object of your desire, maybe someone else did, and you can use each other's. Birthdays are random and provoke jealousy and insecurity; Christmas is just everyone hitting the lottery.

The Shooter Eldest had her Santa Bubble popped a few years ago at the hands of a know-it-all friend, and since we don't lie to her (yet another sign that we're bad parents), it stayed popped. She has, however, gleaned that Santa Belief is something her parents encourage, especially since she's got a younger sister. So she's been peppering us with questions about the mechanics of the Claus, as if it's a conversation we want to have. The inclination to jerk a thumb at the hiding in plain sight bags of crap and say, "I got your Santa right there"? High.

But the Claus lives on, in every hunched back, swollen credit card balance and endured carol, because it needs to, really. January and February, when there is less NFL football, no MLB baseball and the sad reality that those Christmas miracles and failed covers have to be paid for, is when The Sad needs to happen. Not now. Besides, I've got a precious little Christmas miracle of my own to share with you, assuming you can come back to the earlier point about not being quite ready for the holiday this time around...

I've never wanted to become one of those people who had the lights up in October, or needs to have a big damn display on the house. While I enjoy upstaging the neighbors as much as the next guy (especially the people who park at the end of my driveway, in the hopes that I'll buy them new cars if they just leave them in my blind spot long enough), it just doesn't manifest itself in the blinking.

The gifts for the away people have been ordered and sent, and the gifts for the home folks are proceeding with all reasonable speed. It might not be the Best Christmas Ever, but it'll be, well, a Christmas. All you can hope for in a jobless economy that employers are using like a boa constrictor to keep wages and bonuses down. (Hi, people who read this blog at my day job! Join me for some every day lunch time store brand oatmeal, won't you?)

This year, my most prominent Christmas display (so far, this year) is a light up deer that won't stay upright. His head also lolls badly to one side from all of the time that is has fallen down. Merry Christmas, kids! Santa brought us a dead deer that we can't even eat!

So when I see the bright lights on the neighbor's houses, it fills me with a sense of... needing someone to blame for not getting my own up. And the answer is, of course, the NFL. I haven't seen nearly enough Dallas losses yet to make me think it's truly Yuletime, because the NFL failed to schedule Week 1 near Labor Day, forced the bye down our throats, and ate more of my time in December with their asinine mid-week games. The clocks are wrong, the seasons are out of order, the planet is screwed...

And I've found a scapegoat for my humbuggery -- football. It's a Christmas Miracle -- an original entry to the picks column that I haven't written before, in three years of writing this column.

Thanks, NFL! It's just what I wanted. And you too, Dear Reader. I hope you're feeling as warm as a dead deer.

And with that, on to the picks!

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INDIANAPOLIS at Jacksonville (+4)

Ah, the relentless and joyless pursuit of perfection for these Colts, especially against an inexplicable team with no real home field advantage. It really does seem like the Colts are hoping to lose a game, just so they can start the subs in peace and get to that extended rest that will wind up costing them big in a second round upset. Wait, why are they looking to rest everyone again, especially considering that their only Super Bowl win of the Manning Era came when they had pedal to the metal until the end of Week 17?

This line opened at +4, then got taken down amidst the uncertainty that the Colts may decide to fellate the '72 Dolphins and start the scrubs. I'm betting that they don't, and that the relentlessly mediocre Jags don't have enough to take them down even if they do. RB Maurice Jones-Drew is starting to show serious fading issues, WR Mike Sims-Walker can't stay in the lineup due to health issues, and QB David Garrard really doesn't look good with secondary weapons. Or, for that matter, against a speed rush.

Oh, and kudos to the NFL for shoehorning this game, along with the next one, to their irritating house cable network. That way, very few people will see it, and the game will blow, as part of the karmic God's vengeance against this greedhead play. Well done!

Colts 24, Jaguars 17

DALLAS at New Orleans (-7)

Are you enjoying this Cowboy December Swoon more than previous years, or less? I'm still a fan, but it's feeling a little forced now. As much as wondering whether QB Tony Romo's choice of post-game Jaunty Hat signifies something, or whether coach Wade Philips cries himself to sleep at nights while chewing a pile made of bacon, it's just not the same without Terrible. There's no wild card in the mix to truly snap and give us something memorable in the post-game apology fest. It feels like a re-run. Just like this week.

The Saints have been showing signs for months now that they can be had, from an inconsistent running game to the knowledge that if you get enough hands up in the pass rush, you can disrupt QB Drew Brees, at least a little. I still think the Saints are going to win this game; I have 99% confidence in it, really. But cover a 7 point spread? Don't they need to ratchet up the heartbreak more than that? If I could ever bet on a push, this would be the game.

Saints 30, Dallas 24

New England at BUFFALO (+7)

To like the Pats to cover in this game, you've got to (a) think that WR Randy Moss is going to bounce back from the Quit Job that he's been doing for the past few months, (b) think that QB Tom Brady is going to be able to shake off a laundry list of injuries, (c) think that their running game will show up on the road, and (d) ignore the historical evidence that this series has always been close in western New York. I could give you one out of those four, or even two. But all of them? Nah.

Look for the plucky Bills to continue their bid to knock the interim off Perry Fewell's coaching title, and the Bills to cover -- and maybe even surprise. It's not like the Patriots secondary can cover anyone, and the Bills WRs do have talent. (Along with a million other problems, of course.)

Patriots 24, Bills 20

ARIZONA at Detroit (+10.5)

No one cares, of course, but last week's MNF stinkjob in San Fran was the perfect storm of Cardinal crapitude for me personally. Needing a solid effort from QB Kurt Warner and WR Anquan Boldin to make hay in my most important league, I got... seven turnovers. Needing the Cardinal defense to shut down Niner RB Frank Gore to hold off my main rival for that money, I got... 150+ kitteny soft rushing yards with a touchdown, and more yards out of the backfield. And this bastards did the *exact* same thing to me last year in New England! I will now make Yosemite Sam noises while cursing myself to play this demonic game.

Anyhoo... Detroit, you might have noticed, isn't very good, especially when QB Matthew Stafford isn't healthy enough to play and convince them that life is a cruel joke that keeps making them watch Daunte Culpepper. Without RB Kevin Smith, they are actually about to get worse, at least in the short term. As for the Cardinals, I still think they might be the third best team in the NFC, at least when non-49er laundry is in front of them, and the RBs aren't playing hot potato with the football. And if Capn Jebus and Sulky Q want to make up for lost weeks with eight combined touchdowns? I'll still be cheesed. But much, much less.

Cardinals 45, Lions 13

Miami at TENNESSEE (-4)

Two teams I like -- solid on the lines, good defenses, much less dangerous when injured (Miami with RB Ronnie Brown, Tennessee with QB Vince Young). I'm going with the home fires here because I think Young plays and plays well, and because I'm not ready to trust QB Chad Henne on the road with these wideouts yet. Both teams will be much better in 2010 than they are right now, and if you've got a spot to stash a guy for a keeper league, you'd do well to spend it on Titans WR Kenny Britt. From what I can tell so far, he's got no flaws or limitations, and while he might not ever put up the numbers, to this offense he's going to be Andre Johnson. And that ain't half bad.

Titans 20, Dolphins 13

Cleveland at KANSAS CITY (-2)

Give it up to the Mangini; they haven't quit, and their startling win over Pittsburgh last week might have actually saved their coach for next year, but only because writing that just made Cleveland Fan put his head back in the oven. However, QB Brady Quinn isn't ready to replicate that success in back to back weeks, and the Chiefs are going to welcome back #1 WR Dwayne Bowe, giving them multiple deep threats against a secondary that's easily threatened. Assuming the Chiefs OL can keep QB Matt Cassel clean, this will be the one game this year that convinces Chiefs management that they need to keep their terrible first year coach, too. It's like one of those asinine Christmas party games in which everyone passes around the gifts they don't want.

Chiefs 27, Browns 16

HOUSTON at St. Louis (-12.5)

Here's how bad it's gotten for the Rams: they didn't start QB Kyle Boller last week, and it got even worse for them. That's what happens when the third-string guy is, I am not making this up, someone by the name of Craig Null, who was coached in college by... wait for it... Ryan Leaf. Has there ever been a worse name and lineage for an NFL QB? We're going to have to wait a generation for something like this again, but I have dreams for the future coaching work of JeMarcus Russell.

As for this game, QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson will play pinball, you will hate it if they aren't in your fake team's laundry, and it will be very, very over by the third quarter. Also, if you have RB Stephen Jackson, you're screwed. About time, really.

Texans 34, Rams 9

Atlanta at NY JETS (-6)

If the Jets only had a QB. Then I could lay these six points without fear, because I'd know that the defense wasn't going to have a short field, the running game wasn't going to face eight in the box on many meaningful downs, and that the team wasn't just, say, a special teams blunder away from blowing a cover. But they don't.

Fortunately for them, however, the Falcons have already played their game of the year behind backup QB Chris Redmond, and it was last week, when they got close but no cigar to the unbeaten Saints. This week, on the road, they're going to fail to pack their hearts, and also, a healthy running game. Besides, CB Darrell Revis needs to add a TAInt to his resume.

Jets 24, Falcons 17

San Francisco at PHILADELPHIA (-8)

Normally when a team, especially a young club with injury issues and a finesse defense, goes off on a winning streak, there is a hiccup. Prosperity does not always agree with a club; they get complacent, and suddenly you've got an upset. Does this Eagles team fit that bill?

Well, not this week. Thanks to the worst game by an Eagles secondary in forever, they won't be lulled to secure sleep in this week's film session. San Francisco's evisceration of the Cardinals also increases the Don't Sleep faction; it also kept the point spread on this game in that sane and worried realm. The Niners have a long plane ride, an early starting time, and cold weather awaiting, none of which they will appreciate.

The visitors do have two of the pieces that cause me concern. First is the shockingly competent work of TE Vernon Davis, and the second is the power back work of RB Frank Gore. But WR Michael Crabtree and QB Alex Smith are going to hold up their end of the deal...and more importantly, the Niners won't get to QB Donovan McNabb fast enough to keep the Eagle WRs from running clear.

Eagles 31, Niners 13

Chicago at BALTIMORE (-10.5)

Just how bad is this Bears team, really? Bad enough that if you drafted anyone of any consequence from them for your roto team, you were DOA before Thanksgiving. Bad enough that management has to be wondering whether they need a QB along with everything else in next year's draft. (They do, if only because no NFL team should be without a credible backup in this age of concussion.) Bad enough that I'm pretty sure that Baltimore is going to roll up over 200 yards of rushing in this game. Bad enough that owners of RB Ray Rice will continue to wail and gnash their teeth over all the points that their man surrenders at the goal line to the undead Willis McGahee and the cold weather La'Ron McClain.

This one won't be pretty, and will make Ravens Fan far too confident about making the playoffs and doing damage when they get there. They might even be right about that.

Ravens 38, Bears 17

CINCINNATI at San Diego (-7)

Two teams that I like, but not so much as to think they are really battling for the title of AFC #2. The Chargers have continued their usual pattern of December magic under Norvalicious with a convincing road win in Dallas, while the Bengals started to show cracks on the road in Minnesota. The point spread seems too high, especially with RB Cedric Benson running well for the Bengals and RB LaDanian Tomlinson running badly everywhere but the goal line for the Chargers, but the Charger deep passing game is officially worrisome for the Bengals, especially when it concerns TE Antonio Gates.

I like the road team to cover here, but unless and until Cincy QB Carson Palmer can get his game in gear -- last week, viable secondary options went begging in Minny -- these guys are a prime candidate for a one-and-done playoff appearance. The defense isn't good enough to carry the day with a 17 point effort, and right now, that seems to be the top end of what the Bengals offense can produce.

Chargers 26, Bengals 20

Oakland at DENVER (-14)

Oh, Oakland. Having finally found a guy to give you just ordinary production from the QB spot in Brad Gradkowski... you watch him go down in the so predictable I should have made more of it loss last week at home to the Redskins. And now, you go on the road to a Denver team that's still in the playoff hunt, has the kind of defense (i.e., competent, at home) that just destroys your 1970s-esque throwback weak sauce, and has enough patience in the running game to turn your bunch of front-runners into speed bumps by the third quarter.

And the final indignity.... the team is signing JP Losman. (And only four months too late to do any real good, not that he's ever done anyone any real good.)

At least punter Shane Lechler will enjoy the thin air as he looks towards Decade Two of being the NFL's MVP -- Most Valuable Punter.

Broncos 24, Raiders 6

GREEN BAY at Pittsburgh (-1.5)

Something that has always irritated me about the NFL is how Dallas has managed to have themselves as America's Team. It's a complete lie; America is not fake southern, quite this obese or stupid or drug addled, and nowhere near as ready to think kindly on oil men. If such a thing as America's Team exists, it is one of these franchises - midwestern, successful, solid and historic. I'd give the nod to Pittsburgh, since coal mining and binge drinking seems more 'Murkin than cheese eating and binge drinking, but it's a small difference.

IWith five straight losses, nothing to play for, a concussable QB and a defense that gives up massive plays in the passing game, I can't in good conscience take the Steelers here. So they will, of course, win handily against a Packers team that seems destined for a wild card berth and third loss to the Minnesota Favres. What a nightmare. It *has* to happen, right?

Packers 27, Steelers 20

Tampa Bay at SEATTLE (-7)

Rookie QB Josh Freeman is a turnover machine for the ages, the Seabags tend to actually play well at home, it's a forever flight for the warm-weather Bucs, and anyone who watches this without money on the table or a lifelong laundry problem needs counseling. Along with me, who has to care about this game due to The Horror That Is Fantasy Football, and a commitment to streaming defenses. Next year, I'm getting myself a membership to Gamblers Anonymous for Christmas.

Seahawks 27, Bucs 13

Minnesota at CAROLINA (+8)

Oh, and here's one more turd in the stocking from the NFL Network: by having both undefeated teams playing early, they've deprived America of anything close to a compelling SNF matchup. (And NBC -- um, you really couldn't flex out that Packers - Steelers game, and are counting on the nation's elderly to tune in fof Favre? I hope your prescriptions run out.)

I actually think the game will be close, because (a) QB Brett Favre is too old to be out at night in cold weather, (b) Carolina can run the ball, especially against an injured Viking defensive line and linebacker corps, and (c) I need RB Adrian Peterson to man up and give me big numbers, so he, um, won't. In fact, he's going to put it on the ground, and Favre will turn it over, and my blackened little heart will laugh and laugh and laugh at the upset. The power of (Carolina QB) Matt Moore Compels You!

Panthers 20, Vikings 17

NY GIANTS at Washington (+3)

The final nail in the coffin for Jim Zorn, who was probably just a winning December away from... still losing his job. The perils of working for Daniel Snyder, folks. Washington has actually looked frisky for much of the last two months, and the Giants' problems in pass defense were put on broad display last week against Philly. But I just don't trust the Redskins to get it done in a tight game (see Orleans, New), and the point spread gives you no comfort. Besides, WR Hakeem Nicks has finially supplanted WR Mario Manningham to give the G-Men the tandem they should have had weeks and weeks ago, and QB Eli Manning just has more weapons and time than QB Jason Campbell.

Giants 24, Redskins 20

Last week: 9-7

Year to date: 99-105-3