Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Murderers

There's nothing quite like the mortal lock pick that becomes a millstone around your team's neck. Here are the guys that you won't find on winning teams this year... at least, so far.

To be a Murderer, you have to be a position player, since pitchers that disappoint are, well, pitchers. You also need to have been highly ranked in drafts, and for the most part, active. Sure, Grady Sizemore, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jimmy Rollins have killed your team, but you *could* have picked up someone useful for them. Real murderers are at the scene of the crime, with blood on the hands. And lo, these men have crimson fingers.

1) Hanley Ramirez. The consensus #2 pick in fantasy has been just meh so far, with 8 HRs, 8 steals, and no other numbers that stand above that. It also didn't help matters at all that he took a three-game siesta for Not Hustling, since that kind of thing never resurfaces when a cash-trapped team fades from the pennant race. Right now, HanRam is looking like a 20/30 guy, which isn't exactly what you needed at his draft position.

Mitigating factor: He's gone back to leading off and stealing bases, and the Fish offense might be better with Mike Stanton getting the call. Maybe he pouts his way to a real team. And yes, we're grasping at straws here.

You'd be better off having: Troy Tulowitzki (11 more Rs, 2 less SBs, drafted a round later), Derek Jeter (6 HRs, 6 SBs, more Rs, more RBIs, drafted 3 rounds later), Ben Zobrist (similar numbers but positional eligibility, drafted 8-9 rounds later)

2) Chase Utley. Part of the brownout that's killed Philadelphia for much of the last month, the consensus #1 2B has only 2 steals and 25 RBIs to date, making him no better than the 10th best option so far this year at second. He's also old enough, and with a spotty injury history, that you can't be certain the SBs are coming back.

Mitigating factor: He's stayed healthy, and Philly can't be this bad. If they get good again, he's in the middle of a pinball offense in a pinball park. But those SBs are officially worrisome, and an injury would be devastating.

You'd be better off having: Robinson Cano (more Rs, HRs and RBIs, same steals, drafted 2 rounds later), Dan Uggla (highly similar numbers, drafted six rounds later), Richie Weeks (something of a breakout year so far, drafted ten rounds later).

3) Mark Teixeira. Proof that the new Yankee Stadium does not cure all ills, this very expensive first round pick has been barely above replacement level to date in 2010. He's not helping you on the basepaths, and in a golden age of first basemen (15 of whom rank in Yahoo's Top 100), his struggles are just galling.

Mitigating factor: He's streaky, in a bandbox, and will carry a team at some point. Patience. Also, the lower tier options include Derrek Lee, Lance Berkman and Carlos Pena, all of whom have been worse than Teix.

You'd be better off having: Any number of suspects, including Garrett Jones, Aubrey Huff, Troy Glaus and Ty Wiggington. Woof.

4) Prince Fielder. Unlike Teix, this isn't all on the player. Prince has a .409 OBA and is on pace to hit 30 HRs and score 110 Rs. But the problem is that you were banking on 40+ HRs, and you certainly weren't counting on under 75 RBIs. You also probably weren't counting on trade rumors, though at this point you probably wouldn't mind a change of scenery.

Mitigating factor: He might go to a bandbox, or to a team with actual table-setters. And if you paired him with Casey McGehee, who has taken advantage of all of those Princely walks to stand atop the NL in RBIs, you are fine. But if not... ouch.

You'd be better off having: The same collection of Teix scrubs.

5) Pablo Sandoval. Last year's feel-good story is this year's hit-nothing hangover. He's lost the catcher eligibility that made him so beloved in Yahoo leagues, and his 12 HR, 70 RBI pace is only acceptable if you were hoping for the second coming of Pedro Feliz. Top it off with no speed and a below par OBA, and you've got five categories of suck.

Mitigating factor: He's still young, the Giants still have no better options for the middle of their order, and with his 1B/3B eligibility, you can put his punchless ass all over the roster. Yay!

You'd be better off having: A distressingly large collection of waiver wire talent, including David Freese, Chase Headley and Juan Uribe. And we haven't even gotten into the borderline player of the month guys like Glaus, Scott Rolen and Jose Bautista. Hell, right now he's not even the best idea in the Bay Area. Yes, that's right... Kevin Kouzmanoff is eating his lunch in Oakland. Gahhh.

6) Ian Kinsler. Not exactly a good year for premium second basemen. Kinsler missed the first month of the season, and while he's hit for average since coming back, the power/speed combo that made him special has gone AWOL (1 HR in 130 ABs, with 4 SBs). Right now, he projects to a 5 and 20 guy with 60 RBIs, and while the Rs has been OK, you really weren't hoping for Martin Prado here.

Mitigating factor: Texas becomes a bandbox in hot weather, and he might be coming around. On the other hand, he might also get hurt again by a strong breeze, and like Utley, you have to wonder if they'll risk his health with aggression on the basepaths.

You'd be better off having: The same Utley comps.

7) Aaron Hill. Good grief, what happened here? Last year's stunning display of power had career year written all over it, but did we need to go to a sub .300 OBP with it? In the midst of the big fly Jays, Hill's pace of 80 Rs / 20 HRs / 70 RBIs stands out like a turd in the punch bowl.

Mitigating factor: He's had to overcome some injuries, and you have to think that if Vernon Wells continues his return from the dead, that people are going to start giving him fastballs to hit, rather than have men on base. But he's a slug on the basepaths and has been absolutley helpless against lefties this year.

You'd be better off having: A platoon partner at least; the Utley comps at best.

8) Aramis Ramirez. He's been so bad that even the notoriously slow and abandoned Yahoo universe has taken notice, with ownership levels dropping into the 70s, thanks to his (!!!) .168 BA / .232 OBP. He's literally given his owners nothing this year, as the 50 R / 15 HR / 70 RBI pace has come with lingering injuries, sporadic bursts that probably happened on the bench, and in recent days, lost playing time to the immortal Jeff Baker. And you wonder why Lou Pinella is so grouchy.

Mitigating factor: I'm not sure there is one. He's still 31, which is a young age to lose all value, and the Cubs are paying him too much to turn third base over to someone from the farm. In the NL Comedy Central, five games below .500 doesn't mean send in the kids. Then again, more ABs from ARam may be the last thing your team needs.

You'd be better off having: A communicable disease, or an empty roster spot. Failing that, see the Sandoval list.

9) Adam Lind. The bookend to Hill, and if I'd have told you that the Jays would still be treading water in the ultra-competitive AL East with both of these guys in the tank, you'd be forgiven for checking my meds. Lind is another guy with terrible ratios (.210 BA, .279 OBP) and a severe aversion to lefties. More distressing is the near 200-point drop in slugging from last year's breakout. Right now, you'd love to just have his career rates (.275 BA / .329 OBP / .476 SLG)... and the fact that he should be in his absolute prime at age 26 is really discouraging.

Mitigating factor: He can't really be this bad, can he? Of all of the guys on this list, he's probably the best bounce-back candidate, given age and relative affordability. Realistically, I suspect he'll come around in the second half, just in time for Wells and Bautista to fall off. Oh, Jays Fan, I don't envy you.

You'd be better off with: Bautista, the under-the-radar goodness of Marlon Byrd, and any number of streamable flavors of the week (Delmon Young, Luke Scott, Seth Smith, Will Venable, Brennan Boesch, Chris Coghlan, Andruw Jones, etc., etc.). Especially if you play in a mixed league, there is always a fungible OF to ride, rather than dancing with the slug that brung ya... low.

10) Matt Wieters. The fifth-ranked catcher in spring training was supposed to be a breakout candidate in 2010, especially after closing with a comparative rush in 2009. Instead, he's on pace to "produce" less than 50 Rs *or* RBIs, and under 20 HRs, with a .236 BA / .308 OBP.

Oh, and there's also this: in the 52 games that Wieters has polluted the Oriole lineup, he's hit 3rd through 6th in 44 of them. So even if he does get a dead cat bounce in the latter months, he'll likely be doing it with less men on base.

All this highly touted switch hitter has proven so far is that he can't hit from either side of the plate, and if you want to talk about his defensive prowess, it's not as if the O's are winning games with well-called games for their pitchers.

Mitigating factor: He's still just 24, so he could suck for a lot longer than the average catching slug. The Orioles paid and hyped him a lot, so he won't lose the job. I own him, so as soon as I kick his ass to the curb, he'll turn into Victor Martinez, but with defense. I'm in a lot of pain here.

You'd be better off with: Rectal injuries. The heartbreak of psoriasis. Thirty other MLB catchers, including the disabled Gregg Zaun, the part-timing George Kotteras, multiple Molinas, Jason Freaking Kendall and the list goes on and on and on. Realistically, Wieters isn't the worst catcher in fantasy this year -- that's AJ Pierzynski, who I also own! -- but it's close. Tools of ignorance, indeed.

Update -- According to no less of an authority than Peter Gammons, Wieters "has been retarded." Amen, Peter!

1 comment:

Norris Orioles said...

This is the most right on summary of all the slugs that have caused my fantasies turned nightmares. I remember when John Lowenstein was my fantasy outfielder. He would make a pretty good pick now a days.
Anyway it goes to show how mediocrity has turned into supposed greatness these days. I would take Elrod Hendricks before Wieters anyday