Week 12 NFL Picks: Compartmentalizing

Last Sunday afternoon as I waited for the Inevitable Death Flu that was a dead-solid lock for me once I saw the Shooter Kids and Wife go down, I took stock of my Sunday.

The points keeper auction league, my most important roto moment, was ringing up pinball points on Warner to Boldin, locking up the Worst to First recovery from Week One.

The work head to head league turned around as soon as Steve Slaton took a long one to the house; I'm very likely to make the playoffs there.

The friends head to head league was locked up as soon as Tony Romo rescued Marion Barber from 12 in the box purgatory. In that league, I'm on target for a first round bye.

The picks were trending on the positive side of .500 for another week, as I continued to do the Lord's work and pay the rent, like Joey Knish.

And then, there were my Eagles, gagging worse than I would a few hours later, looking positively stricken by anything as daunting as a 3rd and 1 against a terrible 1-8 team, in a Disgust Game for the Ages.

As a parent (and, heh heh, someone who has poor souls that report to me at the day job), I am frequently struck by the need to compartmentalize. Many (mostly younger) people don't get this; they react with full ferver and bomb-throwing fury to stuff that pisses them off, even if the rest of their day is going reasonably well. Hell, I did this myself, and can do it again at any moment, especially if I want to think about Andy Reid.

But you just can't do it. You've got to compartmentalize, limit the damage or irritation that you are going to feel from a certain negative stimulus. In short, delude yourself that it's no big deal.

Because, well, most of the time, it isn't.

As I write this, I'm on the train next to some Unbearable Douchebag of a guy who is having some major life moment on his cell phone. It's impossible not to hear his conversation, even as I focus on the writing; his train wreck of a relationship is on display for all to see. If my daughters ever get involved with someone like him, I'm not going to be very good about it. He just strikes me as a world-class manipulative prick. (And yes, yes, yes, I was this guy, I'm sure, in my teens, and so were you, too. Youth is wasted on the young, but crotchety is something we can all enjoy.)

This picks column also comes to you during a week where I'm swamped with work that's got to all get done before the Thanksgiving break despite being short-staffed, during a time when FTT really hasn't gotten the kind of site traffic that I've been hoping for, when the prospect of a performance bonus from the day job seems laughable not from my own effort or effectiveness but from the greater economic nightmare that's going on, and when I'm probably not going to be able to swing a vacation due to a lack of the green stuff.

It also comes with the full knowledge that, win or lose on Sunday, I'm losing with my Eagles. If they win, I feel stupid for throwing them under the bus, but only a little, because it's impossible to imagine that they're going to win with an effective running game, an effective run defense, and superior coaching.

If they lose, I'll have probably watched every snap, deluded myself into thinking that they might just be a play or two away from pulling it out (because, well, every NFL team is always just a play or two from pulling it out) and just generally wallowed in it, like a homeless man in his own sick. (Yes, last Sunday was quite memorable.)

On the other hand... if I win a roto league, it's worth significant coin to me. If the Eagles win the Super Bowl, it isn't.

No amount of money that I spend can make the Eagles win.

No amount of anger that I feel with their performance will make them get any better.

Hell, given the waiting list for Eagles seasons tickets and the NFL ratings, there's nothing that *any* Eagles Fan can do, unless their last name is Lurie.

And things could be worse, of course; we could root for the Raiders.

So screw 'em. I'm going to enjoy this season anyway.

So let's fire up something that RAWKS...



and let's dim the house lights and light the flash pots. It's time for the business of show.

(Because, well, I'm in my compartment. And Douchebag Guy just got up and left.)

And with that, on to the picks!

* * * * *

Cincinnati at PITTSBURGH (-10.5)

The game you won't see (because it's on the odious NFLN) is a game you won't want to see. Pittsburgh got the hard-fought win it needed in the snow against the Chargers -- and didn't you know that game was going the Steel City's way as soon as you saw the precip? -- while the Bengals missed the upset win on a missed long field goal, the first missed long field goal against the Eagles in the last 45 years. (I exaggerate, but only just.)

The Bengals tend to play well in this inter-divisional matchup, but they don't have the defensive line to cause the Steelers real problems, and since this is one of the five games a year that Willie Parker is healthy, expect the home team to be early and often.

Finally, there's this. Do you really want to trust Ryan Fitzpatrick to cover any number on the road?

Steelers 31, Bengals 10

Houston at CLEVELAND (-3.0)

Houston actually led in the second half against the still-not-great Colts, but squandered the opportunity as Peyton Manning picked them apart en route to 33 points. It tells you just how good Manning was that the Texans could only get the ball to Steve Slaton 14 times; it also tells you how good he is that he turned that into 156 yards and a second half lead.

I really wanted to take the Texans in this game, especially since the Browns have the short week and an unfortunate loyalty to the old and slow Jamal Lewis. But Sage Rosenfels on the road is just not something I can do. Deluded Browns Fans will realize that, no, everything would not have been better had they only started Brady Quinn all year, but it won't happen this week. (I'd be a lot more impressed with him if he didn't look ready to soil himself whenever the defense brings pressure in the red zone.)

Cleveland 26, Texans 20

San Francisco at DALLAS (-10.0)

Look, the only way the Cowboys aren't winning this game is if they spend the entire game throwing just to Owens, so he can be all happy with a Vengeance Game against his original team, with lots of spikes on the 50-yard star. And... as painful as it is for me to admit this... even Wade Phillips isn't that stupid.

(Besides, Jerry Jones is going to insist on throwing some balls to Roy Williams, too, so that the announcers can talk about how smart he is. Jerry is an absolute regular season genius.)

For the Niners, expect turnovers from Shaun Hill, frustration for Frank Gore, and lots of reaction shots and thinly veiled hopes from the announcers for a Singletary meltdown and de-pantsing. The final score will be embarrassment enough.

Cowboys 38, Niners 13

Tampa Bay at DETROIT (+8.5)

You've got to admire the Lions; they aren't losing every game by the same way. Last week, they took another early lead, and considering how badly the Panthers' Jake Delhomnme have played in the last few games, many suicide pool players were probably gripping hard. But they decided to fold like a wet noodle against the run game, and soon, everything was back to normal.

Meanwhile, the Bucs rode Jeff Garcia's Mario-esque Scamper Power to a grindy little 19-13 win over the Vikings at home. At 7-3, they are right in the thick of things in the NFC South, and a very good bet for a wild-card spot.

So why am I taking the Lions to cover again?

Call it a hunch. Or consider the fact that the Bucs are going to have to rely on an odd committee of running backs, with nominal starter Earnest Graham done for the year, Warrick Dunn about to show the world why he doesn't get starter carries any more and Cadillac Williams always broken-down. Garcia never goes downfield, which allows even this bad defense to look a little better at home, since they don't have to defend more than fifteen yards down the field. Add that up to the occasional flash of competence from the Lions' running game (Kevin Smith will survive 2008, which isn't something you will say of too many of his teammates), and the fact that Daunte Culpepper now has had three weeks of practice to throw the ball up high to Calvin Johnson...

Well, it's hard for any team to go winless.

They might still, but this is smelling like another heartbreaking cover to me.

Bucs 17, Lions 16

NY Jets at TENNESSEE (-4.5)

Not only are the Titans 10-0, they've also covered the spread in nine out of their ten wins. And yet, here they are again, with a low number at home against an overrated opponent, just providing the same kind of borderline guaranteed payoff that you were getting last year from the Perfectriots. Meanwhile, all they've done in the last two weeks is win with an air show, as Kerry Collins resuscitated Justin Gage from all of those Deep Sleeper lists that he was on during the preseason. If we had only been more patient.

The Jets, of course, had their best win of the year on the road in New England, where Saint Brett triumphed over age, adversity, his tragic flaws and nay, even Death Itself. In the long run, always put your money on the Reaper. Or, at least, on Favre throwing road picks against teams that provide pressure with their front four.

Titans 20, Jets 13

Buffalo at KANSAS CITY (+3.0)

Anyone who watched the MNF game and honestly thinks that Trent Edwards has a future in football with anything but a clipboard... please take off your underwear, and wear it on your head. Your personal PR needs the upgrade.

The Chiefs have become sneaky, thanks to the pulse that Tyler Thigpen has given them, and despite their 1-4 road record (and 1-9 overall), just might be ready to escape 1-AA status. Either that, or Edwards is shoving the Bills in. Either way, I'm taking the home team, who also have the benefit of the full week.

Chiefs 27, Bills 20

BEARS at St. Louis (+8.5)

Ah, over-reaction... your key to NFL gambling goodness. On the heels of a thorough crushing from the Packers on the road last week, your betting dollar actually finds less than a double-digit cover number against a Rams team that, after a brief mid-season wake-up call under interim coach Jim Haslett, have gone back to that historically awful team that was giving us such hope for the 0-16 perfect stink job earlier in the year.

But hey, no worries, Rams Fan... Marc Bulger says he wants Haslett to return next year. Leaving one to wonder only this: who exactly wants Bulger to return next year?

Here's why you want the Bears here. Kyle Orton will shake the rust off. The Bears will get a big play out of the special teams. Bulger can't help from turning the ball over. Orlando Pace has decided it's better not to play again. Stephen Jackson won't be back this week. The Bears are actually pretty good, at least in comparison to NFC West swill. Matt Forte is going to run for 150 yards. Brandon Lloyd will get back involved.

Oh, and the Rams have spent the last two weeks being down 30 points at the half. Let's just say I'm comfy with the number here.

Bears 34, Rams 17

NEW ENGLAND at Miami (+2.0)

Oh, this one hurts. Miami's got everything lined up -- the schedule of de facto byes, the home field, the vengeance, the running game, and the trickiness that opened the floodgates on the Patriots' Season Of Relative Woe. (Their season of woe is, of course, going to involve a playoff berth and more positive moments than 20 other NFL teams. But far be it for me to make light of Their Pain.)

Now, I'd *love* for the Dolphins to win this game. It would more or less stick a fork in the Patriots' season, and it would also do a very large amount of damage to the Soup Err Gene Yuss reputation of Bill Belichick. Remember, the last time he saw this laundry, a snap from center to Ronnie Brown caused him and his defense to soil themselves repeatedly. If it happens again, it means his ability to scheme for teams left along with the videotape. I'll leave the rest of this as an exercise to the reader.

But anyway... it's just not going to happen. Miami's talent level just isn't there yet, as the last two weeks of narrow escapes against bad teams (seriously, they were a fourth and seven away from a home loss to Oakland last week) has shown. And finally, this -- Matt Cassel has gotten his sea legs, and is no longer an active liability. Sigh.

Patriots 24, Dolphins 16

* * * * *

Time for this week's halftime commercial. (What, you haven't noticed this kind of thing in the picks column all along? You miss a lot.)

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And we now return you to the picks...

* * * * *

Minnesota at JACKSONVILLE (-2.5)

OK, so which Jags' team shows up this week -- the one that took the early lead against the undefeated Titans, who handled Detroit without breaking a sweat... or the team that folded the tents against Kerry Collins at home, and who lost to the Bengals?

Normally, you'd really hate the match-up for them, since the Vikings can take away the run and will just ride Adrian Peterson to a big day. But these aren't the Vikings we've been expecting all year; you can run against them more than you think, and they might lose both of their big Williams tackles to Nutritional Dubiousness any minute now, really. That kind of thing tends to wear on a man, even if you're still active.

Oh, and, um, Gus Frerotte on the road will make more mistakes than David Garrard at home.

Jaguars 20, Vikings 16

Philadelphia at BALTIMORE (-1.0)

Boy, do I have some legroom on the Donovan McNabb bandwagon! No one to question my choice of music, I can stop to pee whenever I want -- hell, I can pee in the damn thing, it kind of smells like that anyway. Sure, it's looking really old, tired and dumb this week, and the driver just admitted last week that he didn't know what glove compartments were, since he never had to use one before... but you've got to love the privacy. I think I'll light me up a big 'ol victory cigar that smells surprisingly like ass!

This bus isn't stopping for anything, much like the Ravens' running game at home, or the 60-plus passing attempts that Andy Reid will dial up this week in a cunning game plan that ex-Eagles coach Jim Harbaugh didn't have diagrammed in, well, 2002. It might even work, provided the Ravens somehow don't score for the first 20 minutes of game time, at which point this good 'ol bus actually stops stripping the clutch and grinding the gears.

But, um, don't bet on it. This will probably be one of those games that Willis McGahee decides he's healthy for.

Oh, and a small note to the dozens of men who might handle the ball for the Eagles in this game? If it's second down, and you are running for the sticks, but you're not sure you can make it, just fall down. Do not, for the love of God, get close. That way lies madness.

Ravens 24, Eagles 13

'akland at 'ENVER (-9.5)

The Resistable Force Meets The Movable Object! Here's what's on the line for both teams this week: the winner gets their first letter back. Major stakes!

'enver is well on their way to winning the Worst Division Ever, thanks to back to back wins over Cleveland and Atlanta on the road, and given how good the Falcons have been this year, you've got to respect that. As an Eddie Royal owner, I'm loving this game, because Jay Cutler will spend his evening avoiding Brandon Marshall (who will magically disappear thanks to the work of Nnemdi Allah Akbar Ademanjiad) and feeding my guy.

Oh, and if you're actually betting this game and thinking the Raiders can cover the number given their recent friskiness in Miami, please remember:

> Mike Shanahan's vengeance is eternal

> The Raiders will have 4,000 more feet of suck than usual, and

> Darren McFadden will not save them or your fantasy team this year.

Finally for the Raiders, um, I hear someone else is calling the plays now. We are well into the part of the movie in which Al Davis is inspecting 12-year-old boys in Raider jerseys inside his bunker, and preparing the suicide pistols. Now, if he could only find his Eva, though given his age and eye for talent, I'm sure anyone will do, really...

Broncos 38, Raiders 19

Carolina at ATLANTA (-1.0)

My favorite line of the week. You've got a Panther team that is never all that trustworthy on the road, a Falcon team that's smarting from their first home loss, and a game that the Falcons need a lot more than the Panthers. Add in the Delhomme Malaise (that's what you get for having a Frenchy name, Jake), the continuing value of Michel Turner, and a motivated Rowdy Roddy White (from spending a week watching the catch he didn't make that could have won the game for them), and I just couldn't like the home team any more.

Of course, since this is the NFC South, my pick will be horribly wrong. So, um, good luck with this.

Falcons 26, Panthers 21

NY GIANTS at Arizona (+3.0)

The marquee game of the week, and I'm not getting fooled again. All hail our Giant Overlords! You are foolish to pick against them! Eli Manning is the best Manning in the history of Mannings! They rush the passer better now that all of their star pass rushers are gone! They are Road Beasts to End All Road Beasts! And I am so not taking this pick as a twisted reverse jinx in a futile hope to extend rooting interest in the NFC East for another week!

(Um, seriously? The Cardinals don't run the ball well enough to keep Kurt Warner from facing big pressure in this game. When Jebus's QB faces big pressure, he turns the ball over. The Cardinals' secondary is not good, and if Frank Gore doesn't trip on the 2 yard line two weeks ago, they would have lost to a horrible team at home. The Giants aren't horrible. This line is a serious value; you may not get the Giants with this few points again this year. Do not fear Eli's pattern of late-season suckery; everything is changed now that he's a Super Bowl God. Go nuts.)

Giants 34, Cardinals 24

Washington at SEATTLE (+3.5)

The wheels of the Redskins' bus came off last week, and while this looks like an obvious get-well present for the homecoming Jim Zorn, the Seabags' showed a little friskiness at home last week with the return of Matt Hasselbeck. I like the home 'dog here, as they've got a defense that's a little better than you might think at home.

Besides, the Ghost of Sean Taylor is still in this building, and, um, he kinda sucks.

Seahawks 24, Redskins 21

INDIANAPOLIS at San Diego (-2.5)

Bill Parcells is fond of saying that you are your record; by the end of the year, all of the good and bad bounces have worked out, and there just isn't anything more to say about it. So let us consider, slowly and carefully, your 4-6 Chargers. They are 1-5 on the road. They are 1-1 after the bye, when LaDanian Tomlinson was supposed to be all healthy again. They've lost to the Bills and Saints, Broncos and Panthers, Steelers and Dolphins. They have played two good games this year, against the Patriots and Jets. They can't rush the passer, are on their second defensive coordinator, and are two games back in the Worst Division Ever.

Now, are the Colts really ready to put a beat down on them? No. Not when the Colts actually had to work and sweat to beat the Texans, and it's not as if Indy doesn't have a host of issues of their own. But while the Colts have found ways to win for the last three weeks, that really doesn't describe the 'Bolts. Give me the road team, under the theory that in a close game, I'd rather have Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy, rather than Philip Rivers and Norv Turner. They may be doing it with mirrors, but you can fool infants with mirrors, and Norv is prone to eating paste.

Colts 24, Chargers 21

GREEN BAY at New Orleans (-2.5)

You know the really awful thing about MNF this year? The games have, for the most part, been too good to ignore. This will be another, with the road Packers needing to shed their usual dome jitters against the usually raucous N'Awlins crowd. I like the Pack here, if only because Ryan Grant is looking like the best back in football right about now, and the fast Superdome track and slow home team linebackers really aren't going to bother him. Besides, the Saints keep trying to get Jeremy Shockey involved, when they really need to just realize that it's not working, everyone hates him, and the team is better off throwing to Billy Miller. Yeah, that's just not something they were expecting to see this year.

Last week: 10-6

Year to date: 84-68-4