Week 11 NFL Picks: The Failure of Fear

Before we start this week's column, a Public Service Announcement. Do not mess with wolves. They don't seem to understand English much. (And yes, I'm laughing at these morons. What were you expecting?) Wolf 1, Idiots 0.



Here's a fun little fact for all of you nature lovers out there. Scientists in Yellowstone National Park have observed that the elk that inhabit the park display no signs of fear when they are now confronted by wolves.

Given that wolves are Godless Killing Machines That Can Trick Rednecks, you'd think that elk would be scared of them, given the snarling and the steely blue eyes and the bloodthirsty pack dynamic and the biting and the rending of flesh and the hey Hey HEY! (Professor Frink, Signing Off.)

What has happened is that since wolves have not been present in significant numbers in the habitat for 60 years, the prey has adapted, as prey does, to the new environment. Without the routine application of Exceptionally Negative Stimuli, and the shared knowledge of seeing the wolves bring down the weak and the elderly, the elk have moved on to a post-wolf worldview.

My grandfather-in-law, who was a deer hunter for most of his highly numerous years on the planet, would say that if he was out for a walk without his rifle, deer would more or less walk up to him and ask him what time it was. This might, of course, simply be the words of a guy who never felt that he bagged enough trophy bucks, but that really didn't seem like the man's style. It may be that prey simply knows when it's not prey.

Now, on some level, one assumes that disregarding the offensive capabilities of predators won't work out terribly well for the Individual, Terrorist-Coddling Elk if they find themselves in a bad situation.

Or -- and this is the part where my surface-only knowledge makes things problematic -- maybe wolves just don't eat elk that much, given that elk are pretty damned big, and wolves probably find deer and smaller game a lot easier to manage. Besides, there's always rednecks to trick and snack on.

Sure, if you are betting on such things, take the wolves plus the points. And if you happen to be an elk, be social, dammit.

And now the magic pullback into Actual Sports... what does this have to do with NFL picks? Well, take a look at some of the longshot covers I went for last week.

RAMS at Jets - took the road dog to cover. They lost by 37.

Jags at LIONS - took the home dog to cover a 7-point spread. They lost by 20-plus.

CHIEFS at Chargers - took the road dog to cover a 15.5 point spread. They lost by a point.

NINERS at Cardinals - took the road dog to cover a 9.5 point spread. They lost by five, and were stopped on first and goal from the one with 40 seconds left.

In short, I have lost my fear of predators in this NFL environment. And as the 8-6 record for the week and 12 games over .500 record for the year shows, it's defensible, if not wildly profitable.

Wolves may exist -- Lord knows that Kerry Collins has done worse things to teammates than hump their legs, gnaw on decaying meat, and howl at the moon -- but we don't fear them. Spread covering wolves like the Patriots, Cowboys, Chargers and Packers have all come back to the pack, mangy and moth-eaten, content to gorge on I-AA roadkill.

Oh, and if you don't see yourself as prey when gambling on sports... you may already be in the process of getting devoured.

Final Editor's Note: A very good chunk of this was written on the Bum Bench at the Newark train station during my commute from hell. See if you can guess which ones.

And with that, on to the picks!

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JETS at New England (-3)

Judgment Day for these two bitter AFC East rivals and incredibly flawed teams, and on a short week and inferior network to boot. The Jets come off a de facto bye against the "Oh Snap, Jim Haslett Is Our Coach? Time To Quit Again" Rams, the second time this year that they threw buckets of confetti at an NFC West team at home.

The Patriots played Bore Ball against the suddenly hapless Bills, and have turned into Old-School Denver East with their ability to take any RB off the street, delouse him, and turn him into a productive player. I'm pretty sure the Smells Like Poo guys who are flanking me on the train station bench where I am writing this are going to be next; they look like they've got some explosion. Yup, definite explosion; in passing out, he just kicked over his cup of coffee. Definite explosion Anyway, moving on...

This week, Ben Jarvis Sacco Vanzetti Smoot Hawley Alpha Tango Charlie Green Ellis gets to try his straight ahead luck against Kris Jenkins. That probably won't go well. So it will be left to Matt Cassel to get it done. That sound you just heard was Patriot Fan smacking himself in the forehead. (Well, OK, not really -- Patriot Fan has people to do that for him. But the flesh-on flesh sound is just the same, if lacking quite the same fat-amped snap.)

The entire game comes down to this: can the Jets score 20 points without giving up defensive touchdowns via the exposure of Brett Favre's TAInt? The single best thing that happened for them in the Rams game was watching Thomas Jones throw down a dominant yardage and touchdown game; it might have been just enough to convince even Eric Mangini, who usually plays this game tight anyway, to just try and win it with a 25 carries for 95 yards kind of day. With NFLN's embarrassing "Heroes" nonsense hyping of Saint Brett, it will be tough to have that kind of patience, but I'm thinking that because it's a road game and a short week, they'll keep it simple... especially now that the Patriots are down not just Rodney Harrison, but also Adelius Thomas.

Plus, the Pats' crowd is giving the home team no lift right now, and just seems to want to turn on Matt Cassel on first move. Jeeves, boo now! Louder, you halfwit! That fails to convey my rage at such inadequate footballery!

Jets 20, Patriots 16

'enver at ATLANTA (-5.5)

Second straight road game for the Broncos, who survived Cleveland and the near-total annihilation of their running back corps to get a shootout win over Brady Quinn. They face a methodical Atlanta team that just doesn't make mistakes, and a rookie QB (Matt Ryan) who is well on his way to Rookie of the Year status.

Falcon Fan should be very, very afraid: after a great deal of time resisting the urge to get on the Dirty Bird Bus, I'm taking up residence and snoring with my mouth open. (Not much on the dental work here in Newark.) Look for 200+ yards from Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood, Ryan to throw for another 200 (almost all of it from play action), and a clock-controlling win for the home team.

Falcons 31, Broncos 24

PHILADELPHIA at Cincinnati (+9.0)

Here's how enthused I am for my home town team and their chances for the rest of the year. Each week that I work up this picks column, I type in the games by hand from a list, checking for the line. I then work it around back and forth, filling in the holes and trying to give each game a good amount of consideration, before doing the drunken spell and grammar check that Blogfrica demands.

This game? I missed it on the list entirely. My eye saw it, but my hands refused to type it. And to think, if they'd only have beaten the Giants at home... I'd have been trying to work out how I could drive the 1,200 round-trip miles to Porkopolis to see them win the game that would have given them a first place tie in the division.

This week, the Eagles play a Bengal team that's fresh off their bye, has seen some recent friskiness out of Cedric Benson and Ryan Fitzpatrick, and has plus wideouts. It doesn't matter; they're horrible, and the Eagles beat horrible teams. Considering there is only one more horrible team on the schedule this year (Cleveland, Week 15), they can't afford to slip, and they won't. It's one of the things that Andy Reid is good at; they pound crud teams. And in the immortal words of Derrick Coleman, Whoop De Damn Do.

Eagles 34, Bengals 17

Chicago at GREEN BAY (NL)

Now or never time for the Pack, who picked a terrible time to go into offensive hibernation last week on the road in Minnesota. Despite doing next to nothing (and seriously, someone please wake up Greg Jennings, as he's killing me in two leagues), the Pack might be the most dangerous sub-.500 team in the conference, since they finally have Ryan Grant back to full power, and the defense keeps running back touchdowns off interceptions. I also remain convinced that they made the right move in going from Saint Brett to Aaron Rodgers, but dammit, it'd be nice if the latter stopped making that a point of debate.

It'd be nice if the Pack started to stop the run, but that shouldn't be impossible against the Bears, who hope to get Cowboy Kyle Orton back to save them from the Rextacy. Even if they do get their starter back there, I like the Pack to overcome the rust, throw for a ton of yards against a surprisingly bad Bears secondary, and win this one under the little-known NFL betting rule of Which Team Needs It More. (One last point to the Pack: can you please, pretty please, throw a ball or two to Grant? He was really good in space last year. And that whole Brandon Jacobs Is In, So We're Always Going To Throw A Screen Pass To Him, Because The Last Block He Threw Had A Vowel On it? It's getting just a *mite* predictable.)

Packers 27, Bears 20

Houston at INDIANAPOLIS (-8.5)

Full speed ahead for the Colts, who got the quality road win they desperately needed last week in Pittsburgh. They come home for their traditional punching bags, the Texans, who have shown a dramatic and unexpected failure on defense this year en route to their 3-5 record.

I really like the home team to put up a big number here, especially if Marvin "Fork" Harrison is concussed and unavailable. The cock-blocking that he's been given to Anthony Gonzalez and this offense is Warrick Dunn-esque. Only, you know, without any of the actual production.

For the Texans, Steve Slaton owners continue to rejoice in their awesomeness. Did I mention that I own Slaton in every single one of my leagues, and that I am, in all likelihood, much smarter than you? That's why I wrote this picks column in a train station, next to guys who smell like poo, while waiting for my wife to get here with my wallet. Trust me with your money!

Colts 34, Texans 24

NEW ORLEANS at Kansas City (+5.0)

Can the Chiefs cover the number against a Saints team that left their body parts and playoff chances in Atlanta? Probably not, given that Drew Brees is going to throw for 400 yards again, but the surprising Tyler Thigpen might do the same. In a game that will only be watched seriously by fantasy players and gamblers -- err, gamblers and more gamblers -- I like the Saints to score more points. I'm taking the over, and I don't even know what it is.

Saints 38, Chiefs 31

Oakland at MIAMI (-10.5)

Miami comes to this one from a suck-out cover kind of home win against the mostly terrible Seabags, who might have played their one good road game of the year in losing by two in Florida. The Raiders also come off a loss in which they might have outplayed their opponents at the line (the Panthers at home), generated turnovers and had the semblance of a running game. Um, they still lost by double digits, so if they avoid quitting in this one before halftime, I'll be amazed. In this game, I look for the Raiders to unravel with a quickness, and for the Fish to have all kinds of wacky running hijinks.

Dolphins 26, Raiders 10

BALTIMORE at NY Giants (-6.5)

UPSET SPECIAL! UPSET SPECIAL! UPSET SPECIAL! is what I'd be doing if this was a podcast, or if I was looking to one-up my fellow bums here in the train station. It's been fun, dear theoretical reader, but once the battery dies out, I'll be reduced to begging for coffee, watching my Blackberry die, and huddling under my London Review of Books for warmth.

Such a fragile connection to the top, this world is, and such a similar fall from grace awaits Our NFC East Overlords, who will be looking at a road club that looks a lot like them -- tough defense, quarterback that suddenly isn't making mistakes, multiple RBs that can punish. The only difference is that when the Ravens defense make plays, it also tends to score points. The Giants will not fear these wolves, and it will cost them. That, or I'm getting a contact methadone high here. Take the Ravens to cover; I actually think they are going to win. (Also, that the national media will regard it as a slip up game after a tough win in Philly, rather than the mouth v. fist problem that the Ravens can do from time to time.)

Ravens 24, Giants 23

Minnesota at TAMPA BAY (-3.5)

The Bucs are coming off a bye, can stop the run, and will be facing a fairly gassed road team that (and this is a first for the Bucs) could really be exploited in the return game. This one won't be pretty, and people who rely on Jeff Garcia for numbers usually come home very, very angry. But the Bucs will win anyway, even if Gus Frerotte has to throw all of their touchdown passes for them. He's prone to that, you know, because, well, he's Gus Frerotte.

Bucs 19, Vikings 9

Detroit at CAROLINA (-14)

It's hard to exaggerate just how bad Jake Delhomme was last week. Honestly, the Panthers might have been better off with Chris Weinke. Or Rodney Peete. That they won anyway, and will win again this week against a Lions team that is redefining what it means to be terrible, shouldn't hide you from the fact that unless the can run the ball, they aren't a very good football team, record be damned.

Of course, they may also just be bad on the road and good at home. Whatever. I've just written more words about this game than anyone else outside of Detroit or Charlotte will this week. Take your de facto bye and move on, Panthers.

Panthers 28, Lions 13

St. Louis at SAN FRANCISCO (-6.0)

Honestly, NFL? If these games have to be on the roster, please go back to bye weeks. Lots of them.

No one really needs to see the Rams play football again this year, especially when Stephen Jackson isn't involved, Torry Holt is rivaling Marvin Harrison for Sad Forkedness, Donnie Avery is good but not so good as to make everything else not matter, and the teams have had their fans wondering who they will get in the draft since the clock turned to October.

Um, give me the Niners, I guess. Shaun Hill sucks less than Marc Bulger. Feel free to put that on your resume, Shaun, along with "Biped" and "Vertebrate."

Niners 27, Rams 16

Arizona at Seattle (+3)

UPSET... stomach. A good friend of the blog is in the late stages of a big money suicide pool, and sweated out the end of last week's MNF error-a-thon with his pool life depending on Frank Gore getting tripped by the 2-yard-line in the final seconds.

The lesson, as always: Don't Gamble, Kids.

Unless you are, you know, *not* a pussy.

Seattle is counting on the possible return of Matt Hasselbeck (and will someone please, please, get Yahoo to list Seneca Wallace as a WR/QB so that I can have the sneakiest third WR play in the history of roto sports). They also get an extra day of preparation to surprise the road favorites after their MNF adventure. Can Arizona shake off its horrible road record and unfamiliarity with the high side of life? Well, I won't be shocked it they don't, but after watching Donovan McNabb tear this secondary apart, it's hard to imagine Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and the rest not getting it done as well.

Cardinals 31, Seahawks 20

SAN DIEGO at Pittsburgh (-4.5)

For the conspiracy-minded Steeler Fans among us (and yes, they do exist), consider the fact that the Chargers don't have to play that early 1pm West Coast Death Start. Also consider that Willie Parker can't seem to get through a football game without falling apart at the seams, Ben Rothlesberger is being asked to carry a team to a top 2 seed in what might be an MVP season, and the defense is starting down a very good collection of wideouts, plus the best pass-catching tight end in the game.

Oh, and the Chargers are also coming off the bye, and are running out of time to win the AFC West. I mean, any week now, they're going go have to win a game. Maybe even two!

Luckily for the Iron City Men and Steely McBeam Lovers, the Chargers still employ Norv Turner, might have the worst pass rush in Christendom, and Phillip Rivers is a 'tard that throws bad picks in tight spots. It all adds up to a wildly entertaining game and Steeler win... but they won't cover. Yes, my prognostication mojo is so good, I can -- and will -- bet on the nickel.

Steelers 28, Chargers 24

Tennessee at Jacksonville (+3.0)

Can the Jaguars be the first team this year to stop the Titan Onslaught? Someone eventually will, but it won't be a team with a patchwork offensive line that is so badly coached, they actually lost a game to the Bengals. (Yeah, I know, someone lost to the Bengals. It's still hard to believe, isn't it?)

Look for the Titans to come back from their one-week hiatus of not being able to run the ball well, and for Maurice Jones-Drew to have one of those 10 carries for 16 yards days that make his fantasy owners more than a little peeved. One of these years, the Jags will replace Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell, right?

Finally, there's this. What more do the Titans have to do to be considered, you know, good? Doesn't an undefeated team deserve a little more spread love than three points here?

Titans 24, Jaguars 13

DALLAS at Washington (+2.0)

The Return Of Romo! Expect that storyline to get *just* a little notice in this SNF tilt, and by just, I mean only slightly fewer spins than Chevy Chase diving into a pool in his socks.

Oh, and here's a fun fact, while I'm talking about Things I Hate, given that this is a meeting of two of the Eagles' biggest rivals. Two years ago when I left the Bay Area, I left behind my DirecTV hookup. I called them, canceled the account, thanked them for the service, and That Was That. I actually liked their service, and thought about getting it again when I was set up in New Jersey, but the cable company sucked us in with a triple play deal, and the broadband mattered to us more than the programming. Besides, now that I'm in the middle ground of the Philly and New York metro areas (and I get my Eagles), I really didn't need Sunday Ticket anymore. No hard feelings though, and who knows, maybe I'd go back to them at some point...

Until six months later, when I see that DirecTV has started charging my credit card again. Two months worth, some serious coin. Multiple phone calls to the company got me no satisfaction, so I called my credit card company and got them to reject the charges.

This was two years and four collection agencies ago.

Now, some might complain about this, or have issue with their remarkable stupidity and malfeasance. Me? I'm *happy* to talk to the collection agents. I tell them all how wonderful it is that they're getting such quality work from these complete tools, how lovely it is that I'm taking their time, and how they can all sue me into the fires of Hell, and possibly corrupt my credit rating forever, for the sake of this. They aren't getting the money. Send me to debtor's prison. They aren't getting the money.

You see, I've become that most awful of all things, the happy malcontent. If anyone -- ever! -- asks me for my opinion of DirecTV, I'll tell them about this episode, and how they also rape puppies, eat kittens, and lure small children into unmarked vans with candy. After that, they abort the monstrous dog fetuses, feeding the unborn dog meat to the kidnapped children in a bizarre cult activity.

After that, it gets kind of graphic and tasteless. By all means, pass it on, and treat it as your own personal "Aristocrats" joke.

Anyhoo, that leads us to their wonderful, wonderful, heavy rotation idiocy ads, which just reminds me, EVERY SINGLE TIME THEY SHOW THEM, how much they need to fail in business. In life. Perhaps in the next life as well. And all for the sake of two months of theft charges.

The really nice thing is that, thanks to their ads, you all feel the same as me now. Pitchforks and torches, anyone?

Oh, right, the game. Clinton Portis is 50-50 to play right now, the Redskins aren't as good as they showed earlier in the year, Dallas has picked it up defensively recently and they just need it more. Expect a big bounce-back game from the Dallas offense and way too many Dallas Is Back headlines on Monday.

Cowboys 31, Redskins 20

CLEVELAND at Buffalo (-5.0)

The continued nightmare that is Prime Time All The Time for the Browns, who travel to Buffalo to face the reeling Bills. Had the Browns held off the Broncos in their last game, there would be all kinds of Brady Quinn Is God nonsense for you to slog through, but since that didn't happen, this is your basic toss-up. Give me the team with talent and an offensive line over the team that stopped playing in early October.

Browns 24, Bills 16

Last week: 8-6

Year to date: 74-62-4