Week 10 NFL Picks: The NFL Network Will Survive Nuclear War

When I first got out of college, I lived in a hovel of a house in a terrible part of Philly. My housemate and I were in a corner building, and I had the second floor bedroom, which had this gun turret window view of the abandoned buildings, crack dealer area, and elevated train. It was stupid cheap, allowed me to live without a car, and was all I could afford on temp wages as I waited for a journalism job that would pay a living wage in George Bush's American recession. That wait didn't go so well.

My housemate and I weren't neat freaks, but in that environment of everything being crappy, it didn't much mattered how you cleaned - you'd either get grimy and dirty or filthy and dirty.

Besides, we were guys (and even worse, straight). We cleaned, but we didn't scour. We picked up after ourselves, but we weren't fanatics. We also didn't seal and caulk every crevice between our place and our neighbors, and in Philadelphia, the houses share common walls.

Then, the roaches came.

A word about the urban roach. When it arrives, you need to resign yourself to the fact that it's not a Personal Plague from a Vengeful God. Nor is it All Someone Else's Fault, since you could have taken steps to prevent it (and will, in your next Hovel House).

Finally, there's this: short of a fanatical obsession and the ability to not blink in the face of making yourself your own lab test subject in a game of Pesticide Overdose, once The Boys Are Back In Town, they are yours for life.

(What, you might wonder, does this have to do with this week's NFL picks? Patience. I'm almost there.)

When you finally break down and go for Chemical Death, it is oddly exciting. We chose gas canisters. You disconnect the fire extinguishers, put tarps (or, more likely because of your regrettable poverty and basic nonchalance if the whole shithouse goes up in flames, newspapers) under the tins so that your precious roach-ridden carpet doesn't stain. You then close the windows, activate the Death, and flee before you die with the crunchy little bastards.

When you return to the scene of the insecticide, you find gratifying roach carnage, especially in places like the bathtub or kitchen. You sweep up their bodies, delighting in the illusion that you've made your life slightly less horrible. Seriously, we must have killed thousands. What the bathtub looked like still shows up in my nightmares.

If you are very lucky, the surviving roaches -- and there are always survivors -- move back to your neighbor's place (because they moved to yours when the other guy roach-bombed). Then, you hope that the neighbors don't roach bomb for a while, so that your freeloading occupants don't get so numerous that you want to do the whole thing again.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

You see, urban roaches never leave, really. They just migrate.

This now brings us to the roach of the NFL fan's world, aka the NFL Network.

When last we left this pernicious scourge, it had scuttled off to the floorboards after eating the hot chemical death of a world that refused to not see the Perfectiots play the Giants in Week 17 of the 2007-08 NFL season. Many people thought they were dead, given how the public well and truly hates not getting football, not to mention the craptacular job the NFLN did in televising their product.

Well, guess what? They're back... Waving their antennae, nibbling on your eye mucus as you sleep, making your fantasy leagues (even) more of a timesuck, and bleeding dry the raw wonder that is a packed and potent Sunday NFL slate. Oh, and they are also making me grind out a picks column and fantasy moves early, when I'm still sleep-deprived from the Tuesday night history.

I hate them, you hate them, and we all wish there was a way we could get rid of them. (And if you don't hate them, go live with them. You diseased freak.)

So let's just try to ignore them for a while until we have enough cash to move to a place with Bondian Supervillain Dish Access, OK?

And with that, on to the picks!

* * * * *

'enver at CLEVELAND (-3)

Two teams I'm really beginning to hate, on a night that's never good for football, on a network that I don't get. Hoo boy, what's not to love here?

If the Broncos couldn't win at home off a bye against the Dolphins, I'm not seeing them breaking through on the road, even against a wildly flawed Browns team that's turning to Brady Quinn to give them a pulse. In the AFC North with a hurt Ben Rothleseberger, that doesn't take that much, and the new QB will help them call some freaking running plays and let their good OL remember that they are, in fact, a good OL.

Of course, it also doesn't hurt that they'll be playing 'enver, who are a punchline that you've seen so many times by now.

Oh, and Jay Cutler? Your fantasy football owners called. They want you to stop treating the diabetes.

Browns 27, Broncos 20

NEW ORLEANS at Atlanta (-1)

The line looks all kinds of screwy on first blush. The Saints are erratic, will still be missing Reggie Bush, haven't gotten Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey back to full power, and will be on the road in what should be a loud dome.

On the other hand, they'll be coming off a bye, while the Falcons spent last week in a de facto bye in Oakland. On a fast Georgia Dome track in a town that might support its teams on a per capita basis less than any other, I'm liking the Saints to notch a quality win.

Besides, the Saints defense is better than you think against the run, which means it no longer causes cheese to curdle. That might not seem too problematic for the home team, since rookie Matt Ryan has been better than anyone, including possibly Ryan, might have expected. But he's not going to be able to match Drew Brees in a shootout.

Saints 34, Falcons 31

TENNESSEE at Bears (+3)

I'd honestly take the Titans here at Bears +9.5. It's not that the Bears are a bad team -- far from it. Heck, they might even be the most complete outfit in the NFC North. But the problem is that this can only be true if the improbably good Kyle Orton is at the controls... and as you might have heard by now, that's not going to happen. Instead, Bears Fan gets to watch this one between his fingers as Sexy Rexy brings cover-your-eyes quarterbacking back to the home town crowd. Can Chicago boo him senseless just five days after hosting over 100K joyous election day people? Yes They Can!

Titans 24, Bears 13

Jacksonville at DETROIT (+6.5)

Can the Jaguars give a second winless team their first, and perhaps only, win of the season... and in back to back weeks? Well, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, we know what they are; now we are just negotiating a price. It seems hard to imagine a Lions team that is truly terrible *and* will play Drew Stanton or Daunte Culpepper can beat anyone, even at home... but the Jaguars are magic, especially on defense, and capable of playing to any team's level. I think the home team will come close but not quite again, so the number is too big to pass up.

Jaguars 24, Lions 21

Seattle at MIAMI (-8.5)

I've watched way too much Seabag Football, in that I've watched any Seabag Football. First that SNF atrocity against the Bucs, then last week's flaccid effort against the Eagles. There's nothing quite so dispiriting as a Dead Team Walking, and a road trip to Miami to face a Dolphins team that is -- no, seriously -- a better than even money bet to win the AFC East this year isn't what they need right now. Even if the Seabags were good, the sheer length of this road trip (seriously, might be the longest flight in the NFL this year that doesn't involve London) would be daunting, and the Dolphins do that Wildcat Thing better than anyone else.

The Seabags do have one thing going for them right now, though, and that's the years of media mouth jobbing for their ice flow bound coach, Walrus Holmgren. This manifests itself in praise for him as his team continues to pile up the non-effort and bonehead plays, while the announcers talk about how really, really mad he is about all of this. Look, fans! His team is terrible, but he's going to yell at them! That's something, right?

Dolphins 30, Seahawks 14

GREEN BAY at Minnesota (-2.5)

One of the better games of the day has this fight for the division between two teams with similar records... and that's where the similarities end. Minnesota beats you with Adrian Peterson and little else on offense, though Gus Frerotte has been better than Tarvaris Jackson, kind of in the same way that having gonorrhea is better than having syphilis. That line made me think of a truly mind-blowing video in which Disney taught kids about various forms of sexually transmitted disease, prompting a long and bitter web video search that only ended with the Simpons making me happy.



It's a wonder I get anything done at all, really.

Anyway, getting back to the game at hand... I like the Pack here, mostly because I think this Vikings team is a poor man's version of the Titans team that the Packers nearly took out last week. Also, Ryan Grant was able to keep the chains moving for the Packers last week, and Steve Slaton had some success aginst the Vikings behind a mediocre Texans' line. I think they'll be able to run the ball just enough to give Aaron Rodgers time to find Greg Jennings, and when that happens, the road team will put enough points on the board to make AP less than All-Day.

Packers 24, Vikings 20

Buffalo at NEW ENGLAND (-3.5)

Buffalo's fall from grace continued last week, and it's time to figure out if they were, really, ever that good; most of their wins have came against teams that turned out to not be very good, and Marshawn Lynch has disappointed, leaving too much of the burden on the relatively noodle-armed Trent Edwards. The thing about this Bills' team is that they always seem young and up and coming, thanks to good coaching and a college-town kind of vibe from their one-sport town (and no, I don't care about the Sabres).

This is mostly because they don't really have the means to compete, which is why they're dallying with Toronto.

So when the rubber hits the road, and they have to beat a good team in a pressure situation, it doesn't get done. That may or may not be sad, depending on your view of upstate New York, but it's how you bet.

As for the Patriots, it was fun to watch them lose a winnable game last week on the road in Indy on dropped touchdown passes and poor timeout managment, the best of which was a coaches' challenge of a 12 men on the field call. Way to blow the end game for five yards, Belichick. What's next, wearing your Browns' gear and completely reverting to form? (And yes, the fact that he did all of this is a sign that he, too, knows that this season is ending in a humiliating first round playoff loss against a team that actually has a quarterback.)

Patriots 23, Bills 16

ST. LOUIS at NY Jets (-8.5)

The Jets will win this game, but they won't cover the number, because Brett Favre will throw too many picks. This is not a recording.

Seriously, what will it take for Coach Eric Mangini to actually make his playbook match his talent? His lead running back, Thomas Jones, has four touchdowns in the last three games. His change of pace back, Leon Washington, is making big plays on short passes and stretch plays. His offensive line are big road grader types who seem to be a lot better at run blocking than pass blocking. His quarterback is mistake-prone to a nearly legendary level, possibly nursing some form of injury, and hasn't been consistently accurate all year. And his opponent is a soft dome team on the road in November that can't stop the run.

I get that you need to develop other aspects of the game to prepare yourself for the playoffs. I get that you aren't going to win big games against tough opponents by being one-dimensional. But, um, ManGenius? Maybe you should have Favre throw the TAINTs *after* you are up 2 or 3 scores from the running game, not before. And for heavens sake, Free Leon Washington!

Jets 31, Rams 24

BALTIMORE at Houston (NL)

I'm not sure why this one has come off the board -- the early line seems to have been the Ravens as a two-touchdown favorite, which seems crazy high for a road team with a game manager quarterback -- so I'm just going to treat it as a pick'em game. Give me the road team to exploit the Texans' defense, and for Sage Rosenfels to make the usual mistakes that Sage Rosenfels makes. The Joe Flacco Legend Continues!

Ravens 27, Texans 20

CAROLINA at Oakland (+9.5)

Wondering why Oakland is giving the bum's rush to bum cornerback Deangelo Hall? It's just to evade the wrath of Steve Smith, who wears out Hall even more than the rest of the NFL, in this otherwise meaningless interconference tilt.

The Raiders can't quit any more than they did last week against Atlanta, which makes this line a little much for the notorious road-feeble Panthers, but honestly, I may never bet on the Raiders to cover any spread ever again. It's just less painful that way.

Panthers 24, Oakland 9

INDIANAPOLIS at Pittsburgh (NL)

The Leftwich/Rothlesberger situation sends another game to pick'em territory. The Colts look like they are starting to round into form, and while the Steelers gutted out a road win in Washington last week, I'm not a fan of them here, with an opponent that has days to prepare for the back-up. Neither of these teams is where they should be, but both will make the playoffs.

Colts 24, Steelers 20

KANSAS CITY at San Diego (-15.5)

Really, the world is interested in giving the Chargers this much love at home against any team, even the I-AA Chiefs? Give me the road team to score just enough to keep this reasonable, especially since the last time the Chargers successfully rushed the passer, Shawne Merriman had two working knees.

Chargers 34, Chiefs 20

NY Giants at PHILADELPHIA (-2.5)

I kind of hate that the home team is favored here. After all, the Giants are the Super Bowl champions, have the best point differential, and just spent last week playing Punching Dummy with the Cowboys. Why should the home team, who has gotten back over .500 purely from their ability to make NFC West teams look like, well, NFC West teams, get the nod here?

Well, basically, because they are going to lose.

The Giants have had outstanding timing all year, in that they haven't faced a single team when they were on the upswing. Even with all of that, they've only blown teams out late, and I still don't buy the idea that they can rush the passer against a team that provides any kind of resistance to that approach. Against the home team, they'll see more Brian Westbrook than any other team has seen this year, and a secondary that can take away the secondary receivers. With Plex Burress well into the Disappointing Returns portion of his career, that's too much pressure for Eli to manage, especially in the red zone. It's been a really nice couple of weeks in town.

Eagles 27, Giants 16

SAN FRANCISCO at Arizona (-9.5)

The Cardinals can and should win this game, but the Niners have too much going for them to wave off this big of a number. Both teams are coming off a bye, but the Niners will be going to the slightly less turnover-riffic Shaun Hill, do have Frank Gore, and the recent history in this series is that Warner usually wins, but it's also usually ugly and tight.

I also think that since it's a MNF game and Arizona is filled with people who don't realize that MNF jumped the shark when it moved to ESPN, this is still a Big Deal to them. That will ratchet up the Overgeeking Factor of the Cardinals, who don't strike me as overcoached when it comes to managing their emotions.

Besides, as much as I love Kurt Warner for saving my ass in a couple of fantasy leagues so far this year, he is due for one of those 2 or 3 turnover games that have made three different franchises give the reins to someone else. I'm looking for a TAINT and garbage time touchdown to give the Niners the suck-out cover.

Cardinals 34, Niners 27

Last week: 8-6

Year to date: 66-56-4