Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Hard Dump

The perspective in the sports blogosphere is that the Cubs had to make the Rich Harden trade after the Brewers got CC Sabathia. I get that, and also that the A's playing any kind of reasonable baseball right now, a year ahead of New Stadium and Then We'll Actually Try, You Betcha, is gravy.

So... um... shouldn't they have gotten a lot more than a possibly good 22 year old starting pitcher, a toolsy minor league OF, another OF who was never able to get regular playing time, and some anonymous catcher? Especially from a guy who, um, was had an option for '09 that means that he wasn't going to break the bank just yet?

Here is the last 281.1 innings of Rich Harden's career: a 2.76 ERA with 289 strikeouts. In terms of strikeouts per 9 innings, he's the leading active starting pitcher in baseball, and he hasn't even had the advantage of going after the National League's lack of DH. In the NL, to unfamiliar hitters and with the lower pitch counts that you get from simply being pinch-hit for, he could be a Cy Young candidate.

Here's where You point out the obvious, that you are looking at many years to get those precious, precious innings... but even in the event of Harden's continued injury woes, I'd much rather have the guy that gives you quality or gives you space than the dreaded "Innings Eater." Besides, if and when Harden goes down, the A's were considerate enough to add the highly serviceable Chad Gaudin to the mix (3.59 ERA, 2.5 to 1 K/BB), and since Gaudin has spent his time in the AL, he'll enjoy the same Unfamiliarity Bump that Harden will.

There is, of course, another possibility here... that the A's have acted in seriously bad faith and know that there's something wrong with Harden right here and right now. His last two starts haven't been to his usual level, and there was talk of lower velocity. Since he's going to the cursed franchise of Prior and Wood, maybe this is just Act III.

But if not... the Cubbies instantly upgrade the top end of their rotation and add another reasonable contingency plan. How about what my team gets? I'm reading how Sean Gallagher has shown flashes of brilliance, Matt Murton can hit for average, Eric Patterson has tools and Josh Donaldson is, well, a catcher, and without those, you got a lot of passed balls. Let's break these down in turn.

You've just dealt a dominant SP for an unproven one. Well OK then. You're picking up an OF that, for whatever reason, has never been able to break through and get the consistent, no doubt playing time that any young guy with a spark should get. So either the Cubs are idiots to not play him, or maybe there are defensive or chemistry issues -- I'm calling that a 50/50 shot at best. Patterson's a nice tool to have, especially when the other touted OF prospects get moved (Andre Ethier) or otherwise flush out (Travis Buck).

Look, I appreciate Billy Beane. I understand that he operates under a shoestring, and that he seems to enjoy it. I get that Oakland SPs always seem better than they are because of the park that they work in, and the emphasis that the team makes on good defenders. I also get that the knee-jerk reaction to any trade of an established and effective player is to snarl about not getting enough back.

But just because he fleeced the Cardinals in the Mulder trade, and that the initial return from Arizona in the Haren move appears more than adequate, that doesn't mean that moving the ace always works. Witness the "haul" that he got from the Braves with Tim Hudson, or the iffy returns from the "Moneyball" class of Blanton, Swisher, Jeremy Brown and a lot of other guys you don't remember. Consider, if you will, that this offense has been mediocre to bad for so long, I'm not sure that it will ever be good again. He's not perfect... and with the Cubs looking down the barrel of a charging Brewers team and on deadline, I expected more.

And so long as we're dumping salary -- and yes, I know that's not a thing you accuse your team of doing, but this is Oakland, and that's what they do, and it's not as if they aren't profitable, given revenue sharing and the fact that the whole team makes less in a year than Alex Rodriguez -- why on earth is Eric Chavez still on the team? You mean you couldn't get the de facto Yankees of the NL to take his contract as part of the deal? (Yes, yes, the Cubs have a third baseman already.)

Grr. Still angry. Even after Justin Duchscherer's first career shutout, and the fact that I have Harden on my roto team, and he's bound to win more games and strike out more guys in Chicago than he was going to do in Oakland. (Which means I get to be even angrier when he next goes on the DL.) GRR.

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