The Audacity of (Sixers) Hope

Today, I made the mistake of listening to Bill Simmons' podcast (yes, I know, I like to hurt myself), which was more or less an hour long hatefest on Elton Brand. In no short order, Brand is a bastard for screwing the Clippers over, a bad fit for the Sixers because he's not a good low-post scorer, on the downside of his career, an injury risk, overrated and a pedophile. OK, I made up the last one, but only just.

Here's what, exactly, the Sixers are trying to do, and it's not that terrible of a plan. They are trying to be the Pistons. So instead of having a breakthrough player (of which there are only, say, a half dozen in the Association, and none of which are going to be terribly interested in going to a cold-weather city), or tanking the year to try to get a high pick, they are trying to create a team of defensive stoppers.

So let's look at the starting lineup and probable rotation. The front line is Brand and Thaddeus Young with Samuel Dalembert, So you've got two top-shelf shotblockers on the floor, and Young picked up some in his minutes as well. So even if they aren't tremendous on the ball defenders -- and I actually think they are pretty good -- they are going to able to provide serious help off the ball. Offensively, they'll get a serious amount of offensive rebounds for garbage points, be able to fill lanes in transition, and if Young can develop, they'll put up 40 to 45 a game.

Now, the backcourt. The strength of the team last year, the two Andres (Miller and Iguodala) were usually a plus, especially with Miller having a rebirth year. In the Detroit series, he owned Chauncey Billups for a good long while, and while he doesn't give you much beyond the arc, he does rebound very well for a point, has good size, and is one of only a dozen actual true points left in the league. As for Iguodala, he's a creature of obvious highs (athleticism, multi category contributions, court vision) and lows (shooting range, turnovers, will force shots and miss free throws). The highs outweigh the lows, and the lows are things that players like him have fixed in the past, especially the free throws.

The bench is suddenly a lot better, since Reggie Evans gets out of the lineup with Brand coming in. Louie Williams is a streak scorer, Jason Smith showed flashes of utility, Willie Green could be OK in limited minutes, and I've got some mild hopes for Marrese Speights, the rookie from Florida that could learn a lot from Brand. They still need a three point threat, but that's been true since they decided they didn't want Kyle Korver around, and the nice part is that everyone can run, cares, and play defense. So long as Kevin Ollie doesn't get run, I'm camping happily.

Now, can this roster really win a championship? Probably not. Are they better then they were before signing Brand? Absolutely. Were they going to get anyone better than him anytime soon? No way. Is it just plain great that the team is actually trying again? Hell and yes.

Oh, and as for the idea that Brand's suddenly a bad guy for wanting to live and work near his family, or getting the hell away from a cursed Clipper franchise that isn't going anywhere with Baron Davis running out of gas at the 60 game mark every year... well, why wouldn't you take more money in Philadelphia, rather than live as a second-class citizen to the Kobe Lakers, and get punked by the Spurs, Suns, Rockets, etc.?

In the East, you get to go against a Celtics team whose three principals all have heavy miles and are over 30, for a team that won on defense... which a fat and happy team will play a lot less of. Also, they're very likely to lose James Posey, who was huge for them, and they are going to have to figure out increased scoring for Rondo and Perkins. It's not a given that will all go smoothly, and if anyone gets hurt, look out.

Who else should you fear in the East? The Pistons are good and deep, but the top players are old, and the team probably needs to be retooled. The Cavaliers have the best player in the Association, and not much else; they'll always be scary, but something good has to happen for them personnel-wise that hasn't happened yet. The Wizards will be better if and when Arenas gets well, but they can't defend and won't win. Toronto is a good team, but Brand makes Bosh a lot more manageable, and unless Andrea Bargnani decides to grow a spine, they aren't going anywhere. Orlando's all right, but Dwight Howard does not dominate the way he should and the points are weak. The Hawks could lose Josh Smith and even if they don't, Mike Bibby's on the downside, and they weren't as good as they looked in that playoff series with the Celtics. Of the non-playoff teams, Miami and Chicago could surprise, but both have real issues. So why wouldn't you want to go to Philadelphia, especially when they are paying you more money?

For the first time in many years, this has been an off-season for the Sixers where we've all felt good to be fans. So the Lemur Analysis of Waah, Waah and Waah... well, um, boys? Suck it. The Sixers will win 45 to 50 games and a playoff series next year. It will be their first series win in way too many years. They'll have a consistent frontcourt presence, no head cases, and a real sense of hope for the future.

It's a good feeling. And it'll be an even better one if and when they take out the freaking Celtics. Go, team, go.