Monday, February 9, 2009

Rumors

Today in Detroit, the Phoenix Suns improved to 28-21 with a convincing win over the Pistons, who might not be what they were in their heyday, but are still an above average team, especially at home. Starring for the visitors were Steve Nash, Shaquille O'Neal and Amare Stoudemire, which is notable, given that the last two of that list have been included in just about every trade rumor in the NBA for the past month.

Now, I don't really know if the Suns are going to move either (or both) big men. They don't appear to be as good as expected, and they certainly aren't as much fun to watch as they used to be. In a playoff series, they are going to have major defensive problems all over the place, just as they have had for the entire length of the Steve Nash Era. But I haven't gone down the path of trying to figure out who they should move and for what, for one very good reason.

It's utterly freaking pointless.

You see, people who deal entirely in trade rumors aren't capable of, you know, actually watching the freaking games. Is it possible that the Suns are just slumming, given that they never were all that intense or committed defensively, and that they are also trying to work in Jason Richardson at the shooting guard?

The simple plain and unvarnished truth about the NBA is that, unless you have a franchise utterly give up a superstar for squat (see the Celtics' heist of Kevin Garnett, or the Lakers theft of Pau Gasol from the Grizzlies), and that superstar more or less fits perfectly, the mid-season move never really works out. That's because basketball isn't baseball; you can't have individual performances plug in their numbers and have it all work out. Guys need to learn how to play together, potentially over years, before they can reach full effectiveness. They also need to work out their relationship with their coach, because with the money that's made in the Association, player motivation from the coach is an incredible factor in the effectiveness of individual teams.

Don't believe me? Consider the Spurs, now ranked second in the Western Conference despite early-season injuries and talent that never seems all that scary, even though they've got the best power forward of all time in Tim Duncan. They rarely, if ever, shake up the deck in a meaningful way in mid-season. They also tend to win the championship every other year, also known as when they are healthy and/or not worn out from the previous year's run.

Consider the East, where there are three clearly superior teams -- the Celtics, Cavs and Magic. The only new player of any serious note with these three teams is the Cavs' Mo Williams. The Celtics more or less stood pat, with the exception of losing James Posey (more important in a playoff series than the regular season). The Magic kept the same core group and just gave them more time together; until they lost Jameer Nelson to injury last week, they look poised to do real damage as well.

So if you're looking for NBA trade rumors, or indeed any kind of trade rumors, it's not going to happen. 90% of them are bull, and of the other 10%, 9% won't have any kind of meaningful and useful impact for this year's results. So why get all out of shape over them? Just watch the freaking game already. Please.

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