Picks filled with spite

Go to Shooter if you want a rational evaluation of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the playoff teams. I'm just here for the hate.

Eagles: My status as an adopted Philadelphian made this an obvious pick, but, frankly, Dallas can go to hell. The Cowboys are everything that's wrong with America. Tacky, loud, nouveau riche, possessed of a wholly undeserved sense of accomplishment and entitlement. When unwashed crazy men fall asleep in 20-degree caves outside of Fallujah, they're dreaming of blowing up Skeletor Jones' colossal monument to his own ego. The Cowboys embody every Ugly American stereotype. They're rude, stupid and loud. Their quarterback is Gomer Pyle, their no. 1 WR reacts to every six-yard completion as if he's discovered the secret to eternal youth is buried in Salma Hayek's ass. I don't want them to lose. I want them to defiled, destroyed and defenestrated. I want their children embarrassed to say their fathers played in Saturday's game. I hate, HAAAAAATE Dallas.

Jets: The Bengals will almost certainly win this game, but my brother is a Bengals fan and I never want him to ever experience joy.

Packers: Not only is Green Bay playing good football, the Cardinals deserve humiliation. They keep slipping into the playoffs by winning the worst division in football and if the 49ers had anything approaching competent quarterbacking, the Cardinals wouldn't even be able to claim that minimal level of success. Plus, the Bidwells are cheap and stupid, the worst owners this side of Jim Dolan. They cheated the Posttsville Maroons out of their right title and until they make it right, let their children know nothing but tears.

Ravens: I can't stand either of these teams. On one side you have a team lead by God's Own (diving on the pile 8-yards downfield) Linebacker and the son of a Bulgarian Customs inspector who still lives with his parents even though he's a millionaire at QB. On the other, you've got the Pride of White America. The fans of both teams are insufferable in victory and in defeat, but "The Wire" was better than "Spencer: For Hire" and the puling of Boston pukes complaining about how their beloved "Football Celtics" were cheated keeps me warm at night.

Steelers-Ravens Live Blog: AFC Championship

Friday Night Blogrolling: Nightmare Fuel

East Coast Bias ranks out the reasons why they hate the Steelers. I'm linking to it for the Nightmare Fuel of that thing in the Big Ben underoos. Click if you dare.

Jeff Johnson, a man with whom I've appeared on camera with in a non-pornographic way, weighs in with his NFC and AFC Championship picks. They are 100% different from mine, so I now must hate him.

Simon on Sports does the math to compare this year's Joe Flacco to 2001's Trent Dilfer. It's interesting, but not nearly as much as the fact if you compare 2001's Ray Lewis to 2008's Ray Lewis. The younger man is a lot better, and ends the interview with a lot of stabbing.



Finally, The Jets Blog with this find from YouTube. Alex Trebeck is calling you out, Coach!

Up the ante

You are looking at Pittsburgh mayor Luke Ravenstahl, who decided that in the lead-up to this week's AFC Championship with Baltimore, he needed to change his name to Steelerstahl. Or, at least, start the paperwork without completing it, because he's going to just renege on this on Monday amd get back on with his life. Frankly, having shown that his name isn't worth more than a cheap laugh, I don't know why he doesn't just go through with it. or cut to the chase and go to Luke McVotewhore.

Similarly, one of those Gil Thorpian can't avoid reading moments in the sports pages is to read up on the Mayor's Bet, that always tiresome collection of foodstuffs that the tools who rule us rattle off in an oh-so-original bet.

Here's an idea: instead of your quaint regional "food," put some teeth in this bet. Have the loser paint City Hall in the opposing team's colors, and leave it that way for a year. Swap out the use of your spouse or kids. Get a Tyson-esque face tatoo of the opposing team's logo on your neck. In other words, show that you've got a set.

Or, um, better yet? STFU.

NFL Picks, Conference Championships

Three games left in the NFL season, folks, and they both look dangerously easy to predict -- especially given how flat-out crazy the playoffs have been so far this year. But as wacky as the last week was, I was an obvious delay of game penalty and several ridiculously unlucky red zone turnovers away from going 3-1 last weekend, with the only missed pick being the Jake For God's Sake game in Carolina.

So as stupid as it sounds to say this... I'm actually feeling reasonably confident about this weekend's games. That's because there are two clearly better teams in each matchup, so much so that you may feel strongly compelled to visit a certain sportsbook.

And with that... on the FREE NFL Picks! (Lines provided by BetUs.com.)

* * * * *

PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) at Arizona

How much do I work on these picks, folks? Enough to listen to the Bad Tooth's podcast, where he compares my hometown team to Big Pussy from "The Sopranos", has a guest advocate a BCS-style playoff to prevent us from the horror of a mediocre regular season team playing its best games late, and talks about how the NFL season is just ruined -- ruined! -- for him because, WAAAAHHHH, the Eagles beat the Giants and everything is just so random and meaningless now. (He also talks about how he can't understand why he gets hate mail. Seriously, Wee William, just go all the way and hit us with the steel chair. It'd be less obvious.)

This paragraph replaces one in which I take the Tooth's bait and recommend many anatomically unpleasant things, mostly because I think he'd enjoy them. Besides, Philly Fan is well aware of how our wins don't matter as much as other team's. And with that, let's go to another retrospective of the '87 Celtics, who were so much more dominant and meaningful than the '83 "Fo Fi Fo" Sixers. It must be nice when your teams are the World Wide Lemur's house pets. Anyway, moving on.

The single nugget of joy that I got out of that oral surgery was not worth it, but still worth sharing. Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders, a relatively dispassionate and useful purveyor of nerd stats, checked the history of teams that won playoff games after getting a big mess of turnovers, like Arizona did last week.

Teams that had five takeaways in a playoff game, in their next game, averaged... drum roll, please... two. The list also includes lots of team like, say, the Jacksonville team that ended Dan Marino with a 50+ point playoff win, who wind up losing their next game.

Can Arizona win? Of course. Are they *likely* to? No. How should you bet? On what is likely, of course. But let's go deeper.

The case for Philadelphia: The defense is playing its best football of the Reid Era. Donovan McNabb has been very accurate for the last two games. David Akers and Sav Rocca are suddenly hot. They match up *very* well with this Cardinals team, as the Thanksgiving Night Massacre showed. Asante Samuel gets to go against Larry Fitzgerald, giving the team a chance at a big play back against a guy that's just murdered the Falcons and Panthers. Brian Westbrook gets to go against a defense that isn't Minnesota or New York. Eagle Fan will be there -- having priced airfare and tickets myself in moments of weakness, you can do the trip for $1K, lock, stock and barrel -- and if they have 10% of the stadium, they could easily make a third of the noise. They are experienced in the playoffs, and unlike last week, face a team that has played the same number of games as they have.

The case against: If this is a shootout, they just aren't as explosive as the Cardinals. On some level, despite the Cardinals' wins so far in the playoff, they could still be looking past them to the Super Bowl. The Cards are a very different offense than the last two clubs that they've faced, and if receivers are as open as they were against the Giants, Warner will not miss as much as Eli did. Samuel has been battling a hip problem, and if he can't go, the defensive line will have to be fantastic. Westbrook is obviously not right, and is averaging just 1.9 yards per carry in the playoffs. Just because the team hasn't played a clunker since Washington doesn't mean that they still aren't capable of it. Reid is just 1-3 in NFC Championship Games, and 0-1 against Warner on the road.

The case for Arizona: Larry Fitzgerald is the living embodiment of amazing. The defense has been getting huge pressure and making plays. The home crowd are playoff noobs, which means that they'll cheer as if the home team is playing with house money. Warner's an experienced playoff quarterback. The running game isn't great, but it's no longer terrible, and the offense is extremely good in the red zone. Should be playing as loose as a home team can at this stage in the playoffs.

The case against: It's just a terrible matchup against this defense; as their entire season has shown, they are a different and not very imposing animal when Warner is pressured, and he should be pressured in this game. There's very little chance that they will get as many takeaways again, and if they don't, the defense will give up points. The loss of tight end Steven Spach is a problem, and the much bigger problem is Anquan Boldin, who hasn't been healthy or himself for a long time. If Boldin is 100%, this offense is explosive and has a serious matchup advantage of Boldin against Sheldon Brown, but if he's not, they can be defended. Ken Whisenhunt has never been a head coach at this stage of the playoffs.

The pick: Westbrook won't get 1.9 yards per carry, folks, and the Cardinals won't enjoy a massive edge in turnovers. So long as the road team gets out of the first without being down big, I think they are going to win this game. (And thank the Cardinals on a level that's almost as much as the Raiders, since they wouldn't have enjoyed the trip to Carolina nearly as much as this one.)

Eagles 31, Cardinals 20

Baltimore at PITTSBURGH (-6.5)

First things first -- this line sucks. It's at least a point to two points higher than I'd like, given how these teams couldn't have played tighter games in the regular season, and dammit, more people should be getting sucked in to the idea that the Ravens are the Six Seed of Destiny in the Apocalypse Six Seed Super Bowl. But so be it.

The big thing that you hear, in the lead-in to this game, is how hard it is for one team to beat another three times in a season. This statistic, by the way, is total horsespit. Here's how hard it is: there have been 18 cases where a team had the opportunity to go to 3-0 in the playoffs in a head to head matchup. And they won 11 of them.

Look, there's a reason why the 2-0 team wins more often then they lose; they are usually better. They almost always have home field; they also have the confidence to know that they can, and do, beat these guys. They lose some as well; it's hard to win playoff games, period. But if you are going with the Ravens just on the Third Time's The Charm gambit, you're on a pretty thin branch.

Another point about those two earlier Steeler wins: the home team wasn't as good then as they are now. So long as Willie Parker looks as good as he did against the Chargers (and no, of course he won't against Baltimore, but half of last week's output will be fine, and he'll get more than that), the Steelers are a dramatically better offense. San Diego's not a great defense by any means, but they can do some things, and last week they got absolutely steamrolled by the men from Iron City... and with Parker and Mewelde Moore getting consistent and positive running plays, that means that Big Ben's got time and space. When he's got those things, folks, there might not be a better QB in the league.

Oh, and their defense is pretty freaking good, too. Note that Joe Flacco's second game against them was a lot worse than his first, which is not exactly the trend you want to see from your rookie QB.

For the Ravens, not to put too fine a point on it, but they committed Grand Theft Football last week in Tennessee. Had the Steelers had to go on the road, it would have been a more difficult game for them, especially if the home team still had Chris Johnson. Anyway, lets go to the tape.

The case for Pittsburgh: At home, with a much more explosive and balanced offense. Have beaten this team twice before when they weren't at full strength. Have the best unit in the game with their defense. Baltimore's corners can be had, as Kerry Collins showed in racking up nearly 300 yards in passing, with a lot of that to fraud number one receiver Justin Gage; they'll have much more trouble with Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward.

The case against: Ben's playoff record is not exactly pristine; if pressured, he can make big mistakes, and the Ravens' defense lives to score. If Parker or Ben gets hurt, and both have been dinged up this year, all bets are off. LaRon McClain can wear down a defense, and Willis McGahee has made a surprising number of good plays (i.e., any) in the playoffs. If they don't get pressure on Flacco, he's got the arm to make enough big plays to swing a game. They should have a disadvantage in punting, not that this showed up last week. The Ravens won't be cowed by the home field or crowd noise, and anything can happen in a division game like this one. (And if you don't believe me, go talk to the Giants. Assuming they aren't busy trashing cars.)

The case for Baltimore: Might have played their bad game last week and gotten away from it. Home teams in this playoff have been far from invulnerable. The defense can score, and when that happens, they usually win. Coach Harbaugh has a vibe about him; he's like one of those Internet poker players that gets to the final table in a tournament, in that while you wait for him to make a mistake, he's stealing you blind. Have to feel like they are due to break through, given how close they came to winning both of the first two games.

The case against: Really didn't do enough to win against the one seed last week. Flacco's just got 10-for-24, 120 yards and 2 picks staring down the barrel at him in this one. Opposing field goal kickers hate Heinz Field for very good reasons, which is to say, the Steelers have an advantage in the kicking game.

The pick: Maybe I'm just making too much out of having a healthy Parker against a pedestrian Charger defense, but damn, the Steelers looked good last week. It'll be close for a while and you will never see a playoff game where both teams are more afraid of the other team's safety... but the difference in this game is as obvious as Flacco vs. Roethlisberger. Give me the guy with the ring, the home field, the better mobility and the better wideouts. Despite the fact that I'm fairly convinced that I'm going to get sucked out with late points to lose the cover.

Steelers 24, Ravens 16

Last week: 2-2

Playoffs to date: 3-5

Year to date: 136-117-7

Theoretical Bankroll: Up $365

Ravens-Titans Fourth Quarter Blogging

> Flacco rolls out, finds McGahee, but he can't get in, so Stover comes on to give the Ravens their first lead of the day. 10-7 with 14:30 left.

> A good return that starts the Titans on their 35 is followed by a nice ball from Collins to White for 15. The Slow One has a huge hole to the right where he gets another 10 yards. Collins then pump fakes and throws into double coverage deep; it's incomplete, and Kerry Collins is still a shaky proposition. Someone named Gantner loses two as Titans Fan mourns the loss of Chris Johnson from his ankle injury, but Gage saves them again with a first down catch. A White yard is followed by a back-foot incomplete for Collins, who then does the smart thing and finds Gage Again on a slant for the first. Justin Gage with 125 yards for the game. And the Titans have... seven points. Yeah, I can't figure it out either.

> White for two, and then the Titans turn it over for the *third* time today, this one on a fumble by Algae Crumpler inside the seven. The Ravens recover at the 1 with 8:57 left, and boy, you have to go back a long time to find a winning team with a negative three turnover count in a home playoff game.

> From the 1, with the Titans defense looking for the safety, the Ravens with a false start on first. Flacco sneaks for a couple. McClain loses a yard on second. Third and 10, Flacco's foot looks out of the end zone, and NO ONE IS SEEING IT. CHALLENGE! NOPE... and after a false start, there's still no challenge. I can't believe we're not seeing a reply here. The punt happens, and the Titans start at the Ravens 43. I still can't believe no one showed a replay on this. CBS is horrible. I'm pretty sure I'll see a replay of that play on, well, Tuesday. A million replays of obvious plays, but not a single one of a play that could change the game. You have to love NFL coverage.

> Collins to Jones for first as Justin McCairens is benched for some reason. Collins now has 270 yards, just an incredible amount against this defense for just 7 points. White with another big hole for another first down. Dierdorf is talking about ball security now, which is just unseemly. White to the 16 for a couple, and there's six minutes left. Titans in no hurry, which, given their turnovers, seems right. Bart Scott stops White cold for a 3 yard loss in the flat. The third and 10 from the 19 is a play where Titan Fan is probably hoping they will just take a knee and the field goal. Instead, Collins gets it to Gage, who gets close to the sticks, and it's Measurement Time. If he's short, they have to kick the field goal -- just have to. Gage is short, and Fisher isn't an idiot, so he sends in Bironas for the tie. From 27 yards away with 4:35 left, he's straight down the middle, and we're 4:23 away from a midfield fistfight between Collins and Flacco. (In a better world. Take Flacco and the points -- he's 14 years younger and has the reach.)

> Ravens start at their 24. McGahee for 6, as the Titans defense has looked a little vulnerable to the run in the second half. 3:45 left. McGahee again, doesn't get the first. Ravens taking their time, probably trying to get their defense some rest. Flacco looking flustered for play call reception. On 3rd and 2 with the clock clearly showing zeroes for a long time, Flacco finds Heap for a long one over the middle, and man, the home team is getting jobbed. Raven Fans make their presence known with a Heap chant after the play ends. CBS is all over the zero play count, but not a safety. Kill me.

> Dierdorf then covers for the refs by saying the flag for delay must have been a nanosecond away. Um, HOW LONG DOES THE CLOCK HAVE TO SHOW ZERO FOR THE FLAG THAT YOU ARE SUPPOSED TO GET WHEN THE CLOCK SHOWS ZERO?

> Two minute warning after another Flacco deep ball that should have been picked. Kearse, back on the field, jumps the snap for a flag. McGahee with a big hole on a draw, and gets out of bounds with the first down. Ravens are a 52-yarder away from Utter Theft. McGahee for 2, and the clock is running despite three Titan timeouts. Bad move, Fisher. McClain stopped for a loss, and the Ravens call time with 1:04 left for the Dierdorf mouth job. No such luck for the previous 40 seconds of clock loss.

> Third and nine with a 51-yarder. Flacco completes it to Clayton, but he's short of the first, and that might be enough to get Stover in for a 42-yarder with the wind. Titans call time with 57 seconds left, their second. Stover's on, and Dierdorf mouth jobs him for being 40 years old... and he nails it. 13-10 Ravens with 53 seconds left, and after a decent run back, the Titans get it at the 35.

> Bad middle pass to Jones takes a lot of time off the clock for low gain. An out to Gage is incomplete. 23 seconds left and third and five here. Titans have to be perfect... and instead, there's an awful middle pass where the safety can't hold on for the pick. Final play of the Titans' season? They rush three, Collins misses an open receiver, and Baltimore has completed incredible theft. 13-10 is your final, and I'm 1-5 so far this year, with two of those losses coming from the Ravens. They'll get the chance to make it three next week, in all likelihood.

> CBS gives Flacco the mouth job post-game. No word, of course, on the fact the play clock was showing zeros, and that he committed a safety that no one saw. He's the winning QB, he's got to be the hero!

Ravens-Titans Third Quarter Blogging

> Three and out for the Titans after a good kickoff return, and the Ravens are an offensive drive away from taking the lead and making the home team very, very nervous. They'll do it from their own 10 yard line after a hold on a touchbacked punt.

> My first positive feeling ever about Coors Light comes from them reminding me of the Barry Switzer Era. You know, when the Cowboys, for the most part, had widly overtalented teams that didn't win.

> Flacco was 3 of 8 in the first half, which is a neat trick for a road quarterback in a tie game -- especially with no running game, either. Mason makes a great play to move the chains on a short throw from Flacco. It leads to a 3rd and 11 from the gun, where the Ravens narrowly avert disaster as Todd Heap almost has possession before fumbling. The first bad punt of the day from Koch leads to Titan ball at midfield.

> White takes a screen, shakes a tackler and gets it to the Ravens 36. Solid play for White, but it does seem that every time he touches the ball, the Titans are going to win time of possession. On third and seven from Won't Try Bironas Range, Collins hits Scaife to set up a fourth and two. And we have Bironas, on to try it from 46... but first, a challenge from John Harbaugh on the completion, to push the field goal try to 51 yards from 46.

> Acura wants me to buy their car because people get hurt in collisions. Well OK then. Gillete Fusion blades talk to you when they need to be replaced. Um, if your blade is talking to you, you have bigger issues than needing a new shave. Ah, commerce...

> Bironas now on to try from 51, and we presume the wind is helping. He misses it by a few feet to the left, not for distance, but for accuracy. And the Ravens are feeling good about this tie game.

> McClain for a sloppy loss. Flacco tries a deep ball to Clayton that's almost picked by Pro Bowl corner Martin Finnegan. Dierdorf thinks it's a good call by the Ravens, but, in a telling moment, doesn't give them credit for it. Flacco calls time -- well, on the plus side, it'll help the Raven defense, since they aren't going to keep the ball -- and then completes a concession throw to Wilcox to set up the punt. Koch, in something of an upset, puts it in the end zone. The under (33.5 points) is looking very good right now.

> A three and out by the Titans has the Ravens defense looking like their old selves, and after the punt, the third quarter is half over and still tied. Ravens ball at their own 39.

> The Shooter and Ninja children, after much back and forth out of the Man Space, invade and play their handheld games on top of us. It's time to start answering questions about adult commercials for small girls. The answer to these questions will eventually become, "Go back upstairs."

> Lo Neal on a screen gets 7. Ravens look lost before the next play and take another timeout. Bad moments for Flacco here. CBS shows Chris Johnson on the bench and, perhaps, not coming back. That's very telling, really. He's got 100 yards and a touchdown, and if that's it for the day, the road team is looking a lot better.

> McGahee gets the first on an inside run, just their fifth of the day. He gets another six with a crease in the line showing up. Titan Fan is gripping, but a no-gain carry for McGahee is reassuring. The big third and five play is a high incompletion from the gun, with Nick Harper ripping it away from Mason to force the punt. Big play. Koch's punt is fielded at the 16, and we've got 19:33 left in a game that'd be boring, if not for the stakes involved.

> White for 5 with a time-lapse photography fake off a screen. Gage with nifty footwork moves the sticks on a dicey out ball; he now has 101 for the day. White for a yard to the right, and it's really looking to me like a game that Collins will have to win, not manage. Rolle's hurt on a second down incompletion with a hold; Baltimore takes the penalty. Why no ad during his limp-off, CBS? Communists!

> White for 5 on a draw that Johnson might have gotten a lot more out of. On third and 14, you can smell the concession draw coming, and instead, Collins take a shot on a deep incomplete. And then Jim Leonard gets a big return to set up the go-ahead score, taking Craig Hentrich's punt all the way back to the Titans 42.

> Flacco incomplete on first on a deep slant as Kearse is down. Again, CBS refuses to make money, and the Titan injury count is growing. If Kearse returns with that limp, it'll be a testament to their training staff. Flacco throws a duck into double coverage, but only Clayton reacts to the ball properly, and sets up first and goal from the four. And just to add injury to insult, Albert Haynesworth is down, too. If you had the Ravens in this game, you're almost at the point of counting the money right now.

> McClain for a yard to the three, and he limps off. The team that survives this game might not be long for the next round. McGahee for a 4-yard loss on second. That's the end of the third, and CBS finally gives us some commerce. Yay, commerce!

Ravens-Titans Live Blogging: First Half Goodness

Had company for this one -- the Five Tool Ninja -- and, well, super-detailed blogging can only happen for games we care *way* too much about. So take what you get, Ravens and Titans Fan...

> Dan Dierdorf tells us that we can't compliment Joe Flacco enough for their 11-5 record. Actually, I'm pretty sure you can. "Joe Flacco is the best quarterback in the AFC!" See, I just did it.

> The difference early: the Titans aren't terrified of letting Kerry Collins throw the ball, and he does it well. The Ravens, not so much.

> Chris Johnson makes a big play out of a screen, and the Titans pass blocking is good enough to let Collins find Justin Gage -- who I told you would do something in this game -- to put them in the red zone. Johnson takes it in from there, and the home team is looking very good early. 7-0, Titans.

> After an 8 yard screen on a backward pass to LaRon McClain, the Ravens finally get a first down when Flacco runs a long yard on a 3rd and one -- with no backs in the backfield. Trickery. It's backed up by a roughing the passer flag, and the way the Titans are controlling the line, they will need help to maintain drives. It looks like a drive stall after a Derrick Mason holding penalty, a long out to Clayton that can't get the feet down, a dropped screen to McClain and an unnecessary time out...

And in a play that will wind up giving them half of their total yards for the first half, just when it looks like it won't be a game, Flacco hits Mason for a 48-yard touchdown on a breakdown in coverage, but also a great throw. Dierdorf's man crush on Joe Flacco is becoming Favrian right now.

> These teams, you will be surprised to learn, just don't like each other. They've failed to exchange thank you notes, and disagree on matters of religion and politics!

> Johnson ends the first with back to back solid runs, the latter for 32 yards, and neither team looks like they packed their defense today. Either that, or Chris Johnson is just that much faster with a bye.

> The second quarter begins with the Titans stalling, as second and third down defensive pressure pushed them back. On a 4th and 8, they don't try Rob Bironas from 47, or punt. A fumbled snap on fourth results in the change of possession at the Titans 39. In Week 15, Titans coach Jeff Fisher didn't try a field goal from 49 against Houston, and turned it over en route to a 16-13 loss. Did he just do it again? And why am I noticing this, but not the paid professionals who are covering the game?

> Instead of discussing Fisher's seeming lack of confidence in his All-Pro kicker, Dierdorf wants to talk about the firmness of the back-up center snap on third. It's a little unseemly, really.

> After a stopped drive, Baltimore's punter (Sam Koch) drops the ball at the half-foot line, and checks it back to the 2. Does every team in the NFL (you know, that isn't the Eagles) have a drop-dead punter now?

> Johnson gives Titans Fan heart failure with a cut right in his end zone; it gets him a single positive yard. On second, he barely escapes the end zone again after strong defensive line pressure. On third, a screen to Ahmad Hall ends with an orgasmic hit from Ray Lewis, but a first down. Dierdorf couldn't be happier right now. It's, well, unseemly.

> You might think that there's a credit crisis in this country, but not at the Bank of Dierdorf. I'm pretty sure he's given credit to a half dozen guys in 20 minutes of game play here.

> Johnson with 79 yards so far, which is probably the over-under for the whole game. On third and three, Collins has time for Gage again, and the Titans offensive line is winning more battles than it's losing.

> Collins to Gage Again to put them past midfield. Johnson getting comfortable enough to make cuts in the backfield en route to a 4-yard gain. Collins hits Scaife to move the chains, and Lee Suggs gets away with post-whistle stuff that tells you how the Ravens defense is not reacting well to a 10-play plus drive. Suggs then catches Collins from behind, but he's hurt at the end of the play, and Titan Fan is cheering that injury. Bad karma, Titan Fan!

> After the injury, it's 13 more to Justin Gage, who now has 4 for 67. LemDale White ends an extremely ugly play where Collins was ready for the snap. In HD, you can see Collins more or less pee himself on that. Neat! Collins then throws an awful back-foot pick to Samari Rolle, who tries hard to be Ed Reed, but can't. Ravens ball at the 12, which is OK, since an incomplete would have just led to Fisher not trying another field goal.

> Jevon Kearse reads the snap count for a run for loss; he doesn't look old or nothing. The third down is another long and gorgeous pass from Flacco to Mason, but a yard wide of being in bounds. Another three and out, and if you believe in time of possession, the Ravens are in trouble. Yards are 201 to 95 for the home team.

> I'm pretty sure that the Toyota truck voice-over announcer talks like that all the time. About everything. And that he drinks.

> Titans pick up the blitz and Collins finds Gage for a first. If they get another 50 yards, they might let Bironas try a field goal! Another blitz on second doesn't work, and Scaife rumbles for 15. The drive ends with White fumbling on a third down draw, keeping the Titans from another non-field goal opportunity. And that's your half, with the Ravens taking a knee at their own 15. The Titans have well over a 2-to-1 yardage advantage, and some real regrets over opportunities missed.

> The Ninja has a genius idea for overtime: instead of more football, just have the quarterbacks fight for it. No helmets, no shoes. Tell me you are not *praying* for Cowboys-Giants overtime. And watching either guy suffer a terribly surprising fumble in the last minute...

Safeties Need Not Apply

This year, Baltimore Ravens safety Ed Reed had nine picks in the regular season, two of which he returned for touchdowns. He also recovered a fumble for another score, had a sack, and was the best player on a defense that allowed the second fewest running yards, passing yard, and points allowed.

He did that with a pass rush that only tied for 12th in sacks, so it's not like he was feasting on ducks from battered QBs. The Ravens went 11-5, with Reed playing a starring role in the stretch drive; it's (very) safe to say that they don't make the playoffs without him, and might not have gotten past the Dolphins in round one.

And your most valuable player of the year was... Peyton Manning, who threw for 4000 yards and 27 touchdowns, in a year where his quarterback rating was just the fifth highest in the league, and his lowest since 2002.

Well, OK, fine. That's what happens in the league where Most Valuable Player should just be renamed QB/RB With The Best Year. Or maybe Best Manning. It's all the same thing, which is to say, nothing that anyone really needs to get too upset over, since it's absurd on its face.

But then the AP names its defensive player of the year... and it's the Steelers' James Harrison. Now, I don't mean to demean Harrison here; he had 16 sacks and 7 forced fumbles, both career highs. He's a great player. But shouldn't the second place guy, Dallas's DeMarcus Ware (with 20 sacks and 6 forced fumbles) have split off his vote, since you could make the argument that Harrison wasn't even the best pass rusher? (For the record, I'd rather have Harrison. But you get the point.)

So, um, not to be too delicate about this, but who does Ed Reed need to service to get the recognition he deserves? I'm not a Ravens fan, but he hits like a truck. He shows up huge in big games. And, well, HE SCORED THE SAME OR MORE TOUCHDOWNS ON DEFENSE THAN EVERY OTHER *TEAM* IN THE LEAGUE THAT WASN'T GREEN BAY.

I've watched the entire career of Brian Dawkins. Ed Reed just had a better year than Dawk ever did. He might have just had the best season for a safety ever. And the best that anyone can give him is the third-best defensive player?

Well, look at it on the plus side, Raven Fan. Maybe he plays better when he's mad.

Ravens-Dolphins Live Blogging: Second Half Goodness

> Something you don't hear enough: NFL punting is pretty astounding now. Between the Chargers and Ravens, we've seen some simply amazing punting this weekend. A big point in a good defensive team, really.

> With Simms preaching Caution! Caution! You could lose the game you are already losing!, the Dolphins choose to run on third and long, and put it on the ground anyway. Be more careful with your losing, Miami!

> LaRon McClain follows it up with a touchdown burst, and I can hear Chris Berman's Sarah Palin impersonation already. 20-3 Ravens, the same score as the last time these teams met in the playoffs, and I give the Dolphins one chance in a hundred to come back in this game. Note -- that isn't win, that's just to come back. This game is forkable, and I guess the Ravens can beat playoff teams. Now that the Eagles have made it, this will make two.

> Patrick Cobbs falls on what could have been a bigger kickoff return, and the reaction shot is of Bill Parcells in the skybox. Who will spend an ungodly amount of money to bring in the Tuna for a rousing run to slightly better than .500? Because that's what he does now, kids...

> The Dolphins construct a drive on rhythm short passes to the backs and Ted Ginn Jr., and it's hard to imagine they can do this long enough to get all of the points back, but it is, at least, moving the sticks. Simms then talks about how it's good for an offense to stay on the field. I'm waiting for him to tell me how breathing air is also a good idea... and Ed Reed, naturally, ends the eight straight completions with Yet Another Huge Play, along with Pennington's fourth pick of the day. That fork just got a lot bigger, and Simms hasn't revisited the Chad For MVP motif.

> With 14:30 left, Davone Bess breaks many ankles and sets the Dolphins up for a first and goal at the five; he's really the only Dolphins offensive player to impress today. Will the fourth quarter have some drama? Ronnie Brown gets it to the 2 on a swing pass, and then catches a much harder one to the left for the touchdown. We still have a game... and then the Ravens defense blocks the point after, which could be huge if this game gets tighter. 20-11, Ravens.

> A three and out, with two incomplete long balls where the receiver was open, follows. Curious playcalling there by the Ravens, who showed confidence in trying to go for the knockout blow, but took no time off the clock. I don't think it's going to wind up costing them the game -- I still have no confidence in the Fish Offence to make up this much grounds -- but they certainly are leaving the door open.

> First play after the punt has Chad Pennington going deep over the middle, in the vicinity of Ed Reed. Miraculously, he doesn't intercept it. If I'm Pennington, I think I try to avoid him, really.

> Chains move on a crossing route, and Pennington scrambles to an outlet for another 10. The Chadster now has 223 yards with his 4 picks and 1 TD; another 100 yards and 2 TDs, and he'll be an MVP again. Ravens starting to look winded, and the Fish move the chains again on a Ricky Williams run.

> Simms, with 9:25 on the clock, advocates the field goal, because we all know that converting a 2-point play is just easy. I can only assume that he's speaking at a frequency that only I can hear.

> Ginn takes a 20-yard loss with a reverse handoff. The 3rd and 25 is just field goal posturing, and they don't even get that, as Ginn can't stay down. With 7:46 left, that might be the last meaningful play of the game.

> Lo Neal converts on a third down play, and we're in Clock Killing Time. Baltimore will win this game with their QB going 9 for 22 for 134 yards, which is to say, without any real need of a QB. I apologize in advance, Steeler Fans, for the fact that I'm going to pick them to take out the Chargers...

> Willis McGahee, who I still assert is terrible, breaks a long run to ice it, and there's not going to be much more to say about this one. 0-3 in playoff picks, baby! Eagles are a lock!

> Flacco ices it with a 5-yard QB draw, and it's 27-9. The only drama left in this one is if the Ravens will throw a prevent defense that prevents the under bet from covering. I'm thinking no.

> CBS flashes the "Shaun King and Big Ben" graphic of rookie QBs who won their first playoff game. Neither of those clubs won it all, and Raven Fan is really hoping for more than Shaun King's career, of course.

> This is how lame celebration buckets have become; we now have shots of it happening significantly ahead of the actual act. I told you that the second half would be boring, right?

Ravens 27, Dolphins 9 is your final... and we'll be back for a distressingly scrutinized running blog for Eagles-Vikings in 30 minutes. I'm sorry, kids, but Papa Shooter doesn't get paid enough for the Fox bridge show, especially after Fox made my awful Red America song prediction come true with a free style rap and their stupid freaking robots. See you later.

Dolphins-Ravens Live Blogging: First Half Goodness

> An early fumble by LaRon McClain leads to a Dolphin drive that ends at the 1 when the Ravens stop the run; the subsequent Ravens drive ends at the 1 when Heap of Todd can't secure the ball and the goal line on a crossing route. Cue the "Early Rounds in a Heavyweight Fight" analogies from the broadcast crew, which is required by Analyst Law #8006 when a first quarter game is 3-3.

> Hoo boy, we got ourselves from Phil Simms. It's a good play call when it doesn't work, a good pass interference penalty when the pass was incomplete, and guys that can throw the ball hard make throwing the ball hard look easy. Let's just say that we won't be blogging sober for this one.

> When Joe Flacco has a clean line and time, he throws the ball hard, accurate and perfect a lot, which makes him a thing you like to watch... and the Dolphins are getting no rush on the QB. This is looking good for the road team.

> Over/under on how many times Jim Nantz praises the Miami weather: 8. Despite the strong first quarter push, I'm taking the under; I'm thinking that he'll get distracted in the second half by Miami's record from last year.

> If someone cheats you out of your heart attack burger from Wendy's, are you more or less depressed than if you had eaten it?

> Chad Pennington starts hot, but the Dolphin running game is not generating big holes. This is leading Phil Simms to talk about Pennington as an MVP candidate, despite the fact that most of Miami's big plays came from the wildcat this year. I'd use this as another moment of how Phil Simms is an utter rockhead, but it's more meaningful than that; Simms thinks the QB in any game that he's watching, assuming he's not a rookie, is an MVP candidate.

> Baltimore might be the only team in the league to use a white punt returner. Since he's white and small, I'm betting he's also scrappy. It's a good bet.

> Matt Hasselbeck, some chick, and Chase Utley are hawking some diet crud. Given that the former is chronically hurt, the latter is rehabbing from surgery, and the middle is some chick that, to be kind, no one has ever heard of... let's just say that I won't be making that buy.

> In the Honda truck ad where the weightlifters are moving immense pieces in a game of chess, it's called "Strength meets intelligence." But wouldn't intelligence involve, you know, using pieces that were meant to be moved, or at least had wheels?

> We've got Ed Hochuli for this game, fresh from his season of getting praised for his lifetime ow rok, rather than that first game disaster in Denver. And since the Chargers won yesterday, everything is OK and we can keep mouth jobbing him. Which I'd be fine with, but only if someone (anyone) could ever tell me who the *bad* refs are...

> Flacco is holding the ball so long, and the offense is having so few people get open, I'm starting to think the Ravens have James Thrash and Todd Pinkston at wideout. When Flacco faces a team with a real pass rush, this is going to look ugly.

> Feeding Whoppers to foreigners doesn't impress me. Having them not get gas and the run thirty minutes later, that would impress me...

> Simms thinks it takes patience, determination and toughness to have a good running game. I like those things too, but I think I'd take good running backs, a good offensive line, and a defense that that doesn't give up a ton of points, so I can use the darn thing. But then again, I'm not a genius like ol' Phil.

> Dawone Bess is, according to Simms, a tremendous catcher of the football. Did anyone else have rye? Along with the whiskey that I'm using to get through his, um, work.

> The Dolphins aren't a very talented team, but they are fun to watch anyway for their use of a myriad number of formations and mild gimmickry; even though most of it doesn't work big, it's just more aesthetically pleasing, and gives you the sense that they're trying harder. And then Pennington throws a bad pick, and all of that goes out the window for More Talent Now, Please.

> Both teams have tried wildcat wackiness today, and both times, it hasn't worked. You do wonder, or at least you do if you are me, if a team with a confident QB situation would give up third downs to this.

> With Miami down to 2 receivers, Pennington throws deep into double coverage for his second pick of the day, and Ed Reed does what Ed Reed does -- score touchdowns. The guy's simply a freak, the real MVP of the AFC, and the Ravens get the first truly big play of the day. 10-3 for the road team.

> The first play after the pick is a coverage sack, and the feel about this game right now is that if the Dolphins score more than three points today, it'll be an upset. I'm feeling great about this pick, which would take me to 0-3 for the postseason. Yay, failure!

> At some point, I'd like to see the play clock go to negative numbers, so that it's even more obvious when the offense has gotten away with a late snap.

> And after a big play to Derrick Mason and a stop from the Dolphins in the red zone, the half ends with a 13-3 Ravens lead. The forecast for the second half calls for Boredom, folks.

NFL Picks, Wild Card Weekend: Uncomfortable Focus

The thing about Wild Card Weekend is that it's the first time since, well, last February that the games (a) mean everything, and (b) can't be avoided. If one of these games is a dog, you're stuck with it, for three-plus hours, until the next one comes around. There's pressure on top of pressure, and this is, along with the fact that there are some questionable teams at this stage still in the mix, why the weekend never delivers four quality games.

This year, we've got added weirdness to the mix, as all of the road teams started out favored, given the seeming weakness of the West teams. But you can make a case for any club at this point, and the spread show it; they are all four points or less, and should be. Given the way this year has gone, with no team dominant or even similar from month to month, and more commitment than that would just be foolhardy.

It all makes a fellow a bit gun shy about going to the sportsbook, but only for a little while, because dammit, it's not *that* hard. Besides, staying away from the action now is just kind of impossible, really: the perfect 11-0 run, after all, means that you can stop picking games for the rest of your life, since you'll have walked away on top.

And with that... on the FREE NFL Picks! (Lines provided by BetUs.com.)

* * * * *

ATLANTA (-2.5) at Arizona

Two teams that weren't in the playoffs last year, and historically, two of the weaker franchises in the league. It's Arizona's first home playoff game ever, and the franchise's first since the 1940s. That's hard to do, folks.

The case for Arizona: They've got the home field. Kurt Warner has owned the Falcons in his career. They could be pulling off a marvelous hustle here, having more or less coasted for weeks. They're facing a rookie quarterback and a team that's struggled on defense recently; the Falcons really did stagger to the line when it came to stopping people. On a grass field, the Falcons' game of giving it to Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood might not be as strong.

The case against: They might be the worst division winner in NFL history. They had the majority of their wins over teams in their division; against good teams, they trailed by a lot early. Warner under pressure is a turnover machine. Unless you believe in the late-season renaissance of Edge James, they can't run the ball. The home crowd isn't really going to be that potent, since no one in Arizona is actually from Arizona, and they don't believe in this team after the last six weeks of suck. If they don't get to the quarterback, they give up huge plays, because the secondary is prone to big mistakes in coverage.

The case for Atlanta: They could have easily been the #2 seed, and survived the best division in football to get the wildcard. Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has been absolutely unflappable, and can also make plays with his feet. They've had big road wins before, and the running backs have honestly been the best 1-2 bunch in the league -- and yes, that includes the Minnesota backs. They just don't make mistakes, come out flat, or just seem weak in any way.

The case against: They're very inexperienced -- unless you count Turner's bench-warming days in San Diego, none of the principals has been under these lights before. The Cardinals could throw a big number up on offense and put the Falcons off their ground control game. They might be just happy to be here, or get caught underestimating the opponent.

The decision: Too much on the line here to hope for the Falcons to make tactical errors. The Cardinals will make this a game for a while, but they just have to play too well to make up for their faults.

Falcons 31, Cardinals 27

INDIANAPOLIS (pick em) at San Diego

Two of the hottest teams in football here, with the Colts coming in with a massive winning streak, and the Chargers coming in as the first team ever to make the playoffs after sitting at 4-8. Adding intrigue is the health status of LaDanian Tomlinson, who looked like his old self last week in the clincher against Denver, then left early.

The case for Indianapolis: Betting against Peyton Manning against a suspect secondary, with a team that struggles to get heat on the quarterback, is downright dangerous. Dallas Clark has been on fire for the Colts, and Dominic Rhodes has more than picked up the slack for the banged-up Joseph Addai. Marvin Harrison isn't very good anymore, but between him and Anthony Gonzalez, there's more than enough to make teams pay for overplaying Reggie Wayne. The defense has been as good as during the Super Bowl run, and Dwight Freeney is primed for a big game.

The case against: They've been more lucky than good, for the most part, with Houdini acts for their best wins. They spent the first half of the year getting by in the skin of their teeth, and the second half of the year playing tomato cans. Addai not being right makes them very susceptible to becoming a one-dimensional offensive team, and a patient team can move the ball on the Cover 2. They're on the road on grass, against a team that knows them well and has had some success over the years. Their historic weakness of special teams is a real issue here.

The case for San Diego: They're playing with house money at this point, given the Denver collapse; you aren't going to get more "No One Believed In Us!" motivation than they'll have this week. If Tomlinson is healthy -- and there's more than a reasonable chance that he is, since he left the Bronco game when it was more or less in hand -- that means a lot. Darren Sproles is a devastating weapon here, and the Colts don't really have a good matchup for Antonio Gates, let alone the rest of the Chargers big wideouts. They have a major advantage in special teams in this game, and could get a touchdown out of the return game.

The case against: They are an 8-8 team despite playing in a terrible division; if Kansas City had been able to cover an onside kick, their season would have ended weeks ago. Their coach is Norv Turner. Their homefield advantage has always been a little suspect, given how nice San Diego is; it's not as if people are intimidated to go play in that weather. The game could easily come down to Phil Rivers having to win it for them, and regardless of his stats for this year, that's not a comfortable situation, given the length of time that some of his rainbows stay in the air.

The decision: Probably the best game of the weekend, and the loss of a day to get Tomlinson healthy could prove telling. I don't think either of these teams are going to go far in the playoffs -- the Colts just aren't as good as their reputation -- but unless Sproles makes five big plays, I don't see the Chargers getting enough to keep Manning out.

Colts 31, Chargers 24

Baltimore at MIAMI (+3.5)

Probably the most physical game of the weekend here, with the Ravens coming in as the road favorite against a Dolphins team that made a historic turnaround from last year's 1-15 debacle. Both clubs come in from de facto playoff games, with the Ravens taking the Jaguars apart at home, while the Jets ended the Favre Era (one can but hope) in New York.

The case for Baltimore: Probably the best defense outside of Pittsburgh with all-everything safety Ed Reed as the true leader of the squad. A surprisingly potent offense by Ravens standards, with lots of good gimmickry, the strong arm of rookie QB Joe Flacco, an amazing last hurrah year from WR Derrick Mason, and a potent running game led by LaRon McClain. They've absolutely taken apart one-dimensional offensive teams this year, and given the arm strength of Chad Pennington, that could easily describe their opponent.

The case against: Both the coach and the QB are making their playoff debut. They've been surprisingly deficient against the running game on defense to patient teams this year. The defense is very prone to giving the ball back to you with laterals and weirdness on turnovers. They keep giving the ball to Willis McGahee, who's quietly terrible. Mason is the only consistent wideout, and he's played most of the last month with only one arm. If they have to keep Todd Heap in to block, they have no deep middle threat, and Heap doesn't block very well anyway. Special teams are ordinary.

The case for Miami: At home and expertly coached. They led the league in limiting turnovers this year despite running a lot of wildcat wackiness. Surprisingly deep wideout core, with home run hitter Ted Ginn Jr. providing a lot of utility, and tight end Anthony Fasano might be the most underrated player in the NFL. The running backs (Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams) can do a lot, and they'll stay with a running game even if it doesn't work right away. The defense has been opportunistic and reasonably resilient; it doesn't hurt that the offense rarely, if ever, puts them in a very bad spot. A home team has to win this weekend.

The case against: As you might expect from a team that's one year away from being 1-15 and starts Chad Pennington, this might be the least physically talented team in the post-season. The running game can be stopped, as neither guy really has breathtaking speed or moves at this point in their careers. Home field in warmth, as mentioned before, isn't nearly as imposing as a cold weather game... so maybe this isn't the home team to win.

The decision: Baltimore has absolutely feasted on non-playoff teams this year, and struggled mightily against teams that took care of the ball. I think Flacco struggles here, and the Dolphins ride the home crowd and better preparation to a mild upset. But whoever wins this game is going down next week anyway, so it's really not that big of a deal.

Dolphins 20, Ravens 16

PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) at Minnesota

The Eagles enter this game with that handy "the team that no one wants to face!" label -- and by the way, that almost never works out well -- given their lucky suck-out and utter de-pantsing of the quit-tastic Cowboys in Week 17. The Vikings won the division with a last-second long field goal against the Giant irregulars, earning them the NFC North division crown. It's also a fight between former Eagle offensive coordinator Brad Childress against his old mentor.

The case for Philadelphia: Closed the season with a rush, and with the defense playing its best ball of the year, particularly in run defense. Play-calling has been almost sane with its number of running plays in the last month. Correll Buckhalter has mde enough big plays that he might actually touch the ball this week. The Eagles are 4-0 against Minnesota in this century, with a playoff win in January 2005. They generally cause exceptional misery for inexperienced and shaky quarterbacks, and catch the Vikings down one Williams on the defensive line, which means they might actually have success running the ball.

The case against: Historically, they have been hurt by good running offenses in big games, and they are facing the most physically gifted running back in the NFL. Special teams has slipped in the second half, with punt returner DeSean Jackson looking a little run down, and punter Sav Rocca having several bad games. They struggle against active pass-catching tight ends, which describes the Vikings this year. Clock management, replay challenges, and just about everything that comes up in losing a close game is a problem. They are a road team in a loud dome, and might be the most inconsistent team in recent NFL history. If they could lose to Cincy and Washington, they can lose to the Vikings. Hell, they could lose to Temple.

The case for Minnesota: Dominant running game, with Adrian Peterson capable of 200+ yard games and Chester Taylor providing a very good change of pace. Bernard Berrian gives them a deep threat that only needs a throw or two to get the game-changing play they need. Tavaris Jackson can make people miss in space, and the game might be tight enough where that comes into big play. Defensively, they can force turnovers and feed on the crowd. Special teams might be an edge.

The case against: Jackson might be the absolute prototype of the NFL QB that struggles against a Jim Johnson defense; if he could more or less devastate Michael Vick with money on the table a few years ago, he should definitely be able to dial up something that Jackson can't deal with. If the Eagles bring their good running game defense, keeping drives going could become a real issue, and the defense is not built for winning the game without also winning time of possession.

The decision: Honestly, with the Eagles, you're out of your mind to try to pick the games; it's an absolute coin flip as to whether they'll show up and play well. If they do, they'll win. Historically, Andy Reid does well in early round playoff games, and Brad Childress inspires even less confidence than Reid in this situation. Besides, by winning this game, the Fatman more or less ensures that he'll have the coach and GM jobs next year as well, no matter how much they crap the bed in the second round. (And oh, yes, the crapping of the bed in the second round will not be for the faint of heart.)

Eagles 24, Vikings 17

Last week: 11-5

Year to date: 133-112-7

Saturday Night's Allright for Cowboy Death

Tonight, I endured hours of NFL Network's online coverage -- and no, it's not something you want to put up with -- to see perhaps the most fun game in the history of Texas Stadium. It'll also be the last.

For the first three quarters, the game was a defensive struggle, and that included watching it... or the bits that NFLN chose to show online, as part of their intermittent "Contractual obligations that we, um, wrote, prevent us from showing you the entire game" live cuts into the action. But when it came down to crunch time, we were riding on most of the live action, and what was shown was chuckle-tastic.

On back to back Had To Have It Plays with their offense finally making plays, and just needing the ball back for the late Houdini score and win, the Cowboy defense gave up kitten-soft long touchdowns to Willis McGahee and LaRon McClain. And just like that, a lock-low under bet went out the door, along with the likely Cowboy playoff hopes.

On the first to McGahee, he went up the gut and was more or less untouched. On the second, McClain arm-raped (because, well, stiff-armed just doesn't do justice for it) Ken Hamlin. The Ravens had 265 yards rushing -- 160 on the last two carries. As Don Meredith wound sing, turn out the lights, the party's over...

The Cowboys are now on the outside looking in in the NFC. Hell, for good measure, the Patriots also got boned, since the Ravens are ahead of them in the wild-card race, and are only a home win against the Giving Up Jags from being a six seed that will likely end the season of whoever survives the AFC East.

In the late going, Tony Romo picked up enough fantasy points to give me a shot in my head to head league, and justified my last-minute move of benching the Ravens defense in my points league. We've even got the goodness of two quick wins in the picks column, and the mild happiness of avoiding a Marion Barber start that would have completely boned me in the head to head match.

Special ups for this game go to Derrick Mason, who shook off a nagging shoulder injury to haul in the first and most important Ravens touchdown with his left arm dangling like a dead thing. If there's a tougher wideout in the league, I haven't seen him. And the balls of brass go to head coach John Harbaugh, who dialed up a perfect fake field goal call in the third quarter to set up the Mason touch.

For the Cowboys, where to start? Despite getting yards from backup Tashard Choice (17 for 90 yards and a touchdown) for most of the night, they showed no confidence in the running game, choosing to run draws from shotgun on 3rd and inches or scramble outs on 3rd and 1. They might have the worst #2 WR in the NFL in Roy Williams, who still brings the big celebration moments for every play he makes -- and considering he had three catches for 12 yards tonight, that kind of thing is noticeable. He also had the final offensive play in the stadium's history for the home team, as he was tackled for a loss on a 4th and 1 pass (and yes, yet again, throwing in short yardage situations).

Romo was fairly horrible in the first half especially, with two picks to Ed Reed in deep heave forced balls to Terrible Owens; he was also out of sync with any receiver not named Jason Witten. Owens did get a touchdown in the late going, but he also quit on several balls and lost another one in the lights. And just when they thought they had something to hold on -- a run defense that had made McClain look like just another back -- they fell apart. They now need the Falcons and Bucs to stumble tomorrow (because, well, neither of those teams is losing in Week 17), and a win on the road in Philadelphia next week. (Sorry, Birds Fans, but since they'd win the head-to-head tie-breaker, the Eagles need wins in their last two games no matter what.)

Given that they couldn't get it done tonight in their house with all of their alumni present, it's a little hard to see how they do it next week, on the road. But that won't stop Eagle Fan from thinking I'm jinxing things if I stay down this path, so I'll just be on my merry little way. My very merry little way...

Updated: Share in the merry!

MNF Thoughts: Steelers-Ravens

Surprisingly entertaining game out of Pittsburgh, where the Ravens impressed me more in a 23-20 road loss than they had in their previous two wins. Quick points...

> Joe Flacco looks like a QB, and LeRon McClain is a beast of a fullback. In 2-3 years, the Ravens might have something special... but only if they add a mess of skill players, especially at wideout and tight end. Derrick Mason can't last forever, Mark Clayton looks lost, and Todd Heap is absolutely spent.

Oh, and Flacco's got to be quicker at getting rid of the ball, and not holding it so long that he gives up fumble sack touchdowns. That was huge.

> Pittsburgh ended the game with one healthy running back (Mewlede Moore). Baltimore has that effect on people.

> Rashard Mendenhall's day while subbing for Willie Parker: 9 carries for 30 yards, 1 catch for 6, and a fractured shoulder that will land him on the IR. The only thing that is keeping me from an epic whiff on the fantasy value of Parker is health.

> The Ravens defense is a classic Ryan unit -- physically punishing, and always prone to dumb penalties (tonight's was a 15-yarder that gave a moribund Pittsburgh attack life) and critical mistakes (tonight, a Santonio Holmes touchdown where three guys whiffed in the secondary). The Steelers were able to change the mood a bit by going to no huddle, but that's not the whole story, or a unique situation.

> Hines Ward was able to draw a 15-yarder when it was absolutely essential. One suspects that he draws more of those than any other WR in the league.

> The Pittsburgh OL continues to have issues, but not nearly as many as last week in Philly. Big Ben's very good at making people miss and making plays on the run, but if they don't get this fixed at some point, they are going to see more of Byron Leftwich than they want to see.

> The Pittsburgh crowd was quite bent at 13-3 in the third quarter, with the offense not scoring a touchdown in forever. Telling, and more so for the telling point that the Steelers remain a finesse team. The division is probably theirs for this year, but next year... maybe not.

Epic Drop: Top 11 Patriot Excuses For Failing To Cover The Spread Against the Ravens

Your list is here, and I'd say more here, but I'm still so upset by all of the bad breaks that the Patriots had to overcome tonight. It's so unfair.

Ray Lewis Wants To Bear Your Child

"I'm sitting right now at an easy 250, 255, but my body fat is crazy right now. I'm the healthiest I've ever been. That's why I don't have no nicks, no real bruises... Where I am right now, it's scary."

We're so happy Ray Ray's happy. Here's some more FTT exclusive footage of his conversation with the Raven beat writers...