Go to Shooter if you want a rational evaluation of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the playoff teams. I'm just here for the hate.
Eagles: My status as an adopted Philadelphian made this an obvious pick, but, frankly, Dallas can go to hell. The Cowboys are everything that's wrong with America. Tacky, loud, nouveau riche, possessed of a wholly undeserved sense of accomplishment and entitlement. When unwashed crazy men fall asleep in 20-degree caves outside of Fallujah, they're dreaming of blowing up Skeletor Jones' colossal monument to his own ego. The Cowboys embody every Ugly American stereotype. They're rude, stupid and loud. Their quarterback is Gomer Pyle, their no. 1 WR reacts to every six-yard completion as if he's discovered the secret to eternal youth is buried in Salma Hayek's ass. I don't want them to lose. I want them to defiled, destroyed and defenestrated. I want their children embarrassed to say their fathers played in Saturday's game. I hate, HAAAAAATE Dallas.
Jets: The Bengals will almost certainly win this game, but my brother is a Bengals fan and I never want him to ever experience joy.
Packers: Not only is Green Bay playing good football, the Cardinals deserve humiliation. They keep slipping into the playoffs by winning the worst division in football and if the 49ers had anything approaching competent quarterbacking, the Cardinals wouldn't even be able to claim that minimal level of success. Plus, the Bidwells are cheap and stupid, the worst owners this side of Jim Dolan. They cheated the Posttsville Maroons out of their right title and until they make it right, let their children know nothing but tears.
Ravens: I can't stand either of these teams. On one side you have a team lead by God's Own (diving on the pile 8-yards downfield) Linebacker and the son of a Bulgarian Customs inspector who still lives with his parents even though he's a millionaire at QB. On the other, you've got the Pride of White America. The fans of both teams are insufferable in victory and in defeat, but "The Wire" was better than "Spencer: For Hire" and the puling of Boston pukes complaining about how their beloved "Football Celtics" were cheated keeps me warm at night.
Hey, kids! Did you know that because I don't use my real name in this here blog -- mostly because, despite years of practice, I've never learned how to spell Nmandi Asomugha -- that makes me much more likely to write horrible personal attacks and crude, callous jokes?
It's all brutally, lamentably true. Damn the Internets! It puts my very soul at peril. That, and all of the safe and secure sports gambling that I recommend that you also engage in, since it's the only way to make the games worth watching, especially now that so very many of us are floating in the bowl in head-to-head fantasy leagues. It's to be expected when you build your team around year-long studs like Marion Barber and Drew Brees, rather than Week 14 heroes like Shaun Hill and Pierre Thomas. So nice to have months of hopes die at the hands of free agent refuse. That's just fun! Also, I'm drunk.
(And anyone that wants to point out that this is just payback to the gods of karma for that fabled Billy Volek to Drew Bennett Garbage To Gold Championship Year... well, in the words of the immortal Homer Simpson, "Stupid poetic justice.")
The highly astute reader -- which is to say, every last one of you wonderful people -- will notice a new sharpness and relevance to the picks column this week. There are two reasons for this.
1) By managing to keep my head at 8-8 last week while others were losing theirs, I'm still up solidly for the year, with a chance of having my best year picking games well, ever. This is where a sportsbook really makes a fellow, well, glad to be alive. I heart the Internets!
2) The chance at being better than the Bad Tooth over at the World Wide Lemur means that I will have no choice but to take over his Web address, and then it'll be nothing but smug and self-serving conversations with my friends in public for money. Gentlemen, you've been warned. Suck up to me now, before I'm famous, living in Southern California, name-dropping for all that I'm worth and slowly ratcheting up the obnoxiousness until I've infected you all with it as well. I will now set myself on fire.
And with that... on to the FREE NFL Picks! (Lines provided by BetUs.com.)
* * * * * New Orleans at CHICAGO (-3)
By this point in the season, we know the teams pretty well, and what we know here is pretty simple. The Saints just don't win on the road; their only wins this year outside of the Superdome were in Kansas City and their "home" game in London. Included in those road losses were foldos to the Redskins, Broncos, Panthers, Falcons and Bucs; an actually good team wins at least one of those games, and has much more than a Win Out and Get Help chance at the playoffs. For all of his weapons and numbers, Drew Brees isn't dominant; if he was, the Saints would have won in Tampa two weeks ago, wouldn't have crapped the bed against Minnesota on MNF two months ago, and would have given his team a better chance at winning in Denver than a long Olindo Mare miss.
As for the Da Bears, they can't stop the pass against good teams, don't have WRs that get consistent separation, and might have the lowest ceiling of any of the NFC North contenders. That doesn't mean they can't win the division, especially if Matt Forte continues to show no signs of hitting the rookie wall, and every sign of remaining the poor man's Brian Westbrook.
In moments like this, the line is educational: two even teams, so the three-point home-field advantage keeps it from being a pick-em game. My bedrock hate for Pierre Thomas, and the fact that Brees was just ordinary last week when I needed him most, is pushing me towards the home team, despite the fact that they might have more talent and match up well with this Bears club. It's also the point in the year when the weather can really change your picks, since cold and snow and a dome team never mix. But since the forecast is calling for a game in the mid 40s, I'm... still going with Chicago, because it's also supposed to be windy. Of such matters, fortunes are made.
Bears 24, Saints 20
GREEN BAY at Jacksonville (+1.5)
Lost in the rush to judge Aaron Rodgers is this simple fact about the Packers; the defense has turned into the new Bengals. That is to say, a big-play unit (7 touchdowns scored) that just gives up a ferocious amount of points (307), mostly because they just don't get to the quarterback enough (21 sacks) and have old corners that just aren't quick enough to make the gambles pay off enough anymore. This Packers team is going to be good next year if Ryan Grant and Rodgers stay healthy and they fix the secondary. There is just too much talent here for them to be below .500, and 13-3 was not a Saint Brett creation. But there's something to be said for the sudden and shocking fall from won-loss record grace here. They are a quitters December away from double-digit losses and a top 10 draft pick. (So there's something to be said for tanking, really.)
As for the hometown team in this shockingly irrelevant matchup -- seriously, you could have gotten some nice indie cred for making these two teams your Super Bowl picks in one of the lowest-rated games in recent history -- well, we all knew that David Garrard wasn't going to throw 3 picks in 325 attempts in 2008, the way he did in 2007. But did anyone have 10 in 436, and a statistical dead heat performance to his 2006 season, back when he was still fighting for the job with Byron Leftwich? I know the man is dealing with a terrible receiving core of knuckleheads and a banged-up offensive line, but he's still supposed to be better than this, and there's something Just Plain Wrong about the fact that Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew aren't dynamite on dump-offs in the flat. This Jags' team quit weeks ago, and needs the cleansing power of fire. That, and they'll miss Matt Jones.
Packers 24, Jaguars 17
DETROIT at Indianapolis (-17.5)
Welcome to the most obvious suicide pick in the history of late-season suicide pools. You've got a comically inept franchise that will become the first 0-16 team in NFL history. They are on the road against a veteran Colts team that hasn't lost in months, always edges out terrible teams, and finally put up a big point blowout last week against the woeful Bengals. It's the only favorite of more than fourteen points that's on the board, and the other team that's favored by that much was absolutely dead in the water two weeks ago (that's Philadelphia in the MNF spot against Cleveland).
So why on earth am I expecting the Lions to cover?
Well, the Colts *still* aren't all that right. The Lions are by no means good, but in Kevin Smith and Calvin Johnson, they have two weapons that will be on this team when they are just ordinarily bad again. Seventeen points is a lot to cover for a team that hasn't had a breakout game from top wideout Reggie Wayne in forever, splits the carries to conserve #1 RB Joseph Addai, and will be taking every possible shortcut to getting some rest in the stretch run since they won't have a bye.
The way you destroy the Lions is how the Titans did it -- with a suffocating defense and a run until they quit, no mistakes offensive attack. Neither of those quite describe the Colts. Don't expect drama, but it also won't be utter comedy, either.
Colts 34, Lions 20
WASHINGTON (-7) at Cincinnati
If the Bengals just weren't such godforsaken quitters with an utterly hopeless QB, this would be a fine place to go for the upset. The 'Skins have to know they have nothing really left to play for, and with Clinton Portis and Jim Zorn getting into each other this week, it's Distraction Time in DC. The Bengals are actually much less awful against the pass, so if this one comes down to Jason Campbell throwing it all over the yard, a cover is not impossible; remember, they did that against the Jets and Cowboys earlier this year on the road, albeit with a less pathetic QB than Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. They also covered the line in the tie that we shall not speak of.
Despite a surprisingly early season burst, the denizens of the District are who we thought they were: a .500 or worse team, the clear #4 in the NFC East, with a talented but underachieving QB in Jason Campbell and an older first-time coach that seems to be in over his head. It took longer to get here then we might have anticipated, but we got here just the same.
Anyway, if the Bengals didn't already have their win for the year, and if they weren't all trying to get Marvin Lewis to never be hired in the NFL for any position ever again, I'd be tempted to go for the home dog. But that "are who we thought they were" thing goes both ways, and there's a reason why the home team has been outscored by sixty combined points in the last two weeks. (That reason is because they stink *and* they've quit. Magical combination, that.)
Redskins 27, Bengals 13
Tampa Bay at ATLANTA (-3)
Are the Panthers really as good as they looked on MNF? Did the Bucs just play a terrible game on defense? I'm inclined to think more of the former, just because it's December, they are tired, and what the Panthers did to them wasn't so much gaping holes as it was busted arm tackles. Getting beaten at the line on the road is bad enough, but when you can't close or finish in space, you're looking old, slow and in the way. And Atlanta might have better, or at the very least comparable, skill people.
Tampa probably will still make the playoffs; such is the power of a San Diego / Oakland home finish. But this game is looking a lot like what just happened to them last week, since they are on the road against a team with a live crowd, two solid running backs, and one WR that almost always gets his numbers despite being the only guy on the team you need to cover. Atlanta's defense isn't as good as Carolina's, but Matt Ryan is better than Jake Delhomme. Oh, and just because in the league where I have him, I was on a bye... count on Antonio Bryant to follow up on his 200 yards and 2 touchdowns game with 60 and zero. Some things, I just know.
Falcons 24, Buccaneers 16
SAN FRANCISCO (+6.5) at Miami
Oh, those frisky Niners! Mike Singletary probably locked up his 2009 contract extension last week with a surprisingly easy home win against the reeling Jets, and now he goes for the AFC East hat trick against a Dolphins team that probably had this one penciled in as a walkover a month ago. The line is inflated from the conventional wisdom of West Coast team travel woes, but that didn't stop the Niners in Buffalo two weeks ago, and I'm expecting another road cover, if not an out and out upset.
For the Dolphins, they continue to be relevant in playoff conversations by working out must wins against bad teams. But I can't help but think that they've already peaked for the year, back when they were the only team running the Wildcat formation. Ronnie Brown hasn't been nearly as electric as he was earlier in the year, and Chad Pennington is like a good middle reliever who is stretched to start games -- you can get away with it for a while, and maybe even ride a hot streak for half a year, but eventually, his lack of stuff is going to cost them. Probably not this week, though. Unless you've got them to cover.
Oh, and this just in... Dolphins LB Joey Porter continues his goal of being the least likable man in the NFL (now that Rodney Harrison is done) by standing up for Plaxico Burress and his need to illegally carry an unlicensed firearm. You see, athletes need their guns so, so much that they don't need to follow the same laws as everyone else. You might not to want to ask Joey for an autograph, unless you are wearing Kevlar.
Dolphins 24, Niners 20
Buffalo at NEW YORK JETS (-7)
Which team wants it least? Buffalo showed the good people of Toronto just how lucky they've got it with CFL ball in a snoozefest loss to the Dolphins that reminded everyone just how much they don't want to watch J.P. Losman. Oh, and the crowd was more or less neutral, with tons of vacationing Fish fans. Yay, karma! Meanwhile, the Jets continued their criminal neglect of an effective running game in a beatdown at the hands of the Niners in Candlestick. Oh well, at least no one in New York is going to make that Meadowland Super Bowl hype anymore.
In this game, you'd have to think that J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS Fan will take matters into his own hands and boo Saint Brett into morose check downs and handoffs. Or that head coach Eric Man E. Super Genius will finally wake up and realize that his offense needs to revolve around Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, especially when both of his WRs have utterly disappeared against weak defenses in the past two weeks. Jericho Cotchery is earning a place on my Never Own Again fantasy player list, along with Torry Holt, Reggie Wayne and Jeremy Shockey. On defense, the concern has to be stopping Marshawn Lynch, since those Lee Evans eruptions happen a lot less infrequently these days; if you are scared of Trent Edwards, it's only in comparison to Losman. The home team gets well and deluded here.
Packers 34, Bills 16
TENNESSEE (-3) at Houston
A highly interesting game for a 6-7 team that's doing a lot more than playing out the string. After a landmark win last week in Green Bay, the Texans are looking downright frisky, with the top 3 skill players of Slaton, Johnson and Schaub looking like keepers. Meanwhile, the Titans clinched the division last week, don't appear to be in terrible danger of losing the #1 seed, and could be poised for a road letdown game, especially if the Titans pull that I-AA Battled Red Catsuit thing again. Hence, the small line.
But what people are forgetting here is that the Texans' defense really isn't very good, which is going to make them stack the line to stop the Titan running attack... and when that happens, you give Kerry Collins all day to stretch the field and, maybe, find Justin Gage for a long one or two. They proved that they could win that way on the road in Chicago a month ago, and they'll do it again here. It will entertain few people, but the Texans will cover.
Titans 24. Texans 16
Pittsburgh at BALTIMORE (-2)
Grand Theft Football was committed last week at home for the Steelers, who rode a dominant second-half defense and the traditional December gift giving of Tony Romo to a tight win over Dallas. Now, they get the tough and tenacious second place team with ambition in Baltimore in their continuing saga to try to make the playoff schedule easier than the regular season.
For the Ravens, the only thing that seems to be capable of stopping them is their own offense. All of the points allowed in last week's mule kicking of Washington came off short fields than to offensive miscues. After the offense had made the game interesting, the team finally did what good teams do at home with a lead; ran it down the throat of the opponent with Lorenzo Neal blocking for LaRon McClain, and after a dozen or so of those plays, the play-action touchdown to Derrick Mason could have been executed by just about every quarterback in the league. Maybe coach John Harbaugh is keeping McClain fresh for the playoffs with his pointless use of team cancer Willis McGahee. Either that, or he's just giving the Steelers a lot of hope for this match-up.
The real problem for the road team here is that, well, the Ravens are *good* at rushing the quarterback, and against teams like that this year, the Steelers have done things like give up double-digit sack totals and had Big Ben been unable to finish the game. I'm not expecting a mirror replay of that game. Oh, wait... actually, I am. (Oh, and if there is any bet to make here with confidence, it's the under.)
Ravens 16, Steelers 13
DENVER (+7.5) at Carolina
How enthused are fantasy sports honks about owning a Carolina running back for this matchup? Denver has only recently gotten its D back in this column, and with Champ Bailey expected to provide some measure of help against Steve Smith, the onus will fall (as onuses always do) to Mssrs. Williams and Stewart, who merely combined for 300 yards and 4 touchdowns against a presumably good Buccaneer defense on MNF. Add that to Denver having to travel for the game and the peculiar desire on the part of all AFC West observers to insist that Dammit, The Chargers Aren't Out Of This Yet, and it's a growing consensus for the home team.
HOWEVAH, as Screaming A. Smith might say (look him up on the Internets, kids, he was a programming genius)... I'm going the other way here, despite the fact that Denver RB is right up there with Spinal Tap Drummer in terms of job security. You might have noticed in the game where Carolina was running like crazy that the Bucs, of all people, were moving the ball fairly well via the air. Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall are a lot better than Jeff Garcia and Antonio Bryant, and with Bailey giving the Broncos a chance to stack the line against the run, I'm liking the road dog cover here. Besides, teams coming off big MNF wins tend to struggle the next week, especially late in the season where recovery time is critical.
Panthers 27, Broncos 24
SAN DIEGO (-5.5) at Kansas City
Happy days are here again in LoCal, where a dominating win over the Raiders and the eternally amusing state of the Worst Division There Ever Was (unless, of course, you are an NFC West devotee) has the home team thinking that the Norv Stretch Drive is going to kick in any second now. The Chiefs continue to provide some value for roto players, but no one else, and while they historically own the Chargers at home, this isn't the run or lose team they've usually provided heartbreak to. If Turner wasn't Turner, he'd be giving many touches to Darren Sproles now and enjoying the actual burst. If Herm Edwards wasn't Herm Edwards, he'd be moving on from Larry Johnson with all possible speed. And if you've got serious confidence in either of these glue factories, you're a better gambler than me...
Chargers 28, Chiefs 21
SEATTLE (+3) at St. Louis
What would you rather watch than this game? My list includes surgery, telenovelas without transcripts, backyard wrestling and braying conservative jackass theatre as to how everything that's happening in the markets is the fault of the guy who doesn't even have the job yet. All of these things will provide more low comedy (and titty) than a game for fantasy players who clearly aren't still alive in their leagues, because the big Stephen Jackson Payoff that happens in this game will be countered by the previous ten-plus games of blinding sadness.
For the road 'Hawks, Seneca Wallace to Deion Branch scared the Patriots senseless last week, and they've got to be liking their chances against Marc Bulger, who has gone into full Bobby Hoying mode of turtling up against any defensive pressure. With Donnie Avery hitting the rookie wall and Torry Holt running as if he was dragging a wall behind him, I think I'd be looking for a comfy spot on the turf, too. The home crowd in St. Louis will make the Seahawks think it's a game played on a neutral site. Like, say, a warehouse.
Seahawks 20, Rams 10
Minnesota at ARIZONA (-3)
Curious game here. The Vikings need it more than the Cardinals, who have already wrapped up their trembly first round playoff loss by finally putting the NFC West out of its misery last week. But the Cardinals are better against the run than the pass, and teams that are traveling to the desert normally have problems, even when their quarterbacks aren't Gus Frerotte. The continuing mystery that is the Williams Wall Suspension could also swing this game large; at stake is whether Cardinals RB Tim Hightower will disappoint his fantasy owners or *really* disappoint them. Never has a rookie RB ran for so many touchdowns while breaking so many hearts; the man is making LemDale White sit up and take notice, at least until the rolls of fat make him collapse into the fetal position again.
I'm going with the home team here, mostly because I think Kurt Warner secretly wants another MVP award very badly. He's got to be smart enough to know that he's not going very far in the playoffs with that secondary, and that the next contract he signs will be his last. So look for 350 yards and 3 touchdowns as he pads his numbers against a Vikings defense that isn't as good as advertised.
Cardinals 34, Vikings 20
NEW ENGLAND (-7) at Oakland
Will this be the week that the Patriot Dream dies? Probably not, given just how awful the Raiders are despite games of actual production, but you know it's coming, just from their sudden lack of any kind of margin for error. Last week in Seattle, they were actually a fourth down conversion from the 2 away from a shocking loss to a Seahawk team that hasn't shown a pulse for weeks. It's not looking very good for them, but hell, it's the AFC East; someone not very good has to win it, them get stomped in the playoffs.
As for Oakland... um, what exactly do you say about a team that was supposed to be bad, and is, well, bad? Zach Miller seems to be a useful player. Johnnie Lee Higgins might be still drawing a paycheck in five years, and could be quite useful if he were in a place where the games mattered. Nmandi Asomugha has made me write his name enough times to get it done in only two minutes of cross-checking. They aren't as bad as other really bad teams. And until the owner is taken out and actual professional practices are used in the judging and training of football players, it's all exceptionally meaningless. No wonder Raider Fan is a whiskey drunk.
Patriots 27, Raiders 16
New York (+3) at DALLAS
Perhaps the most intriguing game of the week. The Cowboys have had more success than most against the Giants in the past few years, with Tony Romo throwing for big days and the defense not getting steamrolled by the Giants running game. Both starting quarterbacks have struggled in December, not that Giants Fan cares about such things anymore. Both teams have a big physical lead back who is coming in banged up. The only real difference here is that the Cowboys' Idiot WR is still on the field, while the Giants are spending their Plaxtime trying to get back the money he isn't earning after shooting himself accidentally. (I know, I know, it's still funny.) One also suspects that while they'd like home field throughout the playoffs, they aren't going to kill themselves over it, after winning the Super Bowl last year with repeat road wins.
Dallas needs the game more than the Giants, and has home field. They also could have easily won last week in Pittsburgh, which would have made their wildcard hopes a lot more realistic. They should get Marion Barber back, and I'm looking for him to run angry (which for Barber would make him damn near psychotic) as his answer to Jerry Jones questioning his toughness. Tashard Choice's good game in Pittsburgh might also give them the secondary punch they've been missing since Felix Jones went down, a surprisingly important injury for them. If LJ Smith was able to to do things to the Cowboys last week, count on Jason Witten doing more. And while the Giants will be better than they were last week, they are still down one good WR... and more importantly, also seem to be losing the effectiveness of their best LB in Antonio Pierce.
Cowboys 24, Giants 20
Cleveland at PHILADLPHIA (-14)
Andy Reid needs to resign! The reason why for this week is that he clearly overused Brian Westbrook in last week's beatdown against the Giants. 39 touches for the man he's always treated like a china doll was way too much, especially when you've got the two-headed monster of Lo Booker and Kyle Eckels just ready to go on the bench. Expect all of that to come back to haunt them against the Cromeos, who have Ken Dorsey throwing to Braylon Edwards, Steve Heiden and Donte Stallworth, when he's not handing it off to Jamal Lewis. This one has Trap Game written all over it...
And yes, I'm kidding, about everything but the Reid Resignation. Once you are under my bus, Fat Man, YOU STAY THERE. Eagles 34, Browns 13
Were you aware that over 10% of your yearly ration of NFL games for the season have already been played? Personally, I'm outraged by this on many levels, most of them manifesting as self-hatred. Why, I've missed whole series of games -- and I call myself a blogger. It's disgraceful. I can already feel February's cold chill on me, when the only thing I'll have to comfort myself with is a non-Bush presidency, the NBA, MLB spring training, college hoops, hockey and maybe a vacation. Damn you, NFL! In just about five months, I'm going to be mildly inconvenienced!
Anyway... last week was a back and forth affair, as good moments like Indy on the road, Carolina and New England in pick'em wins and the Pack covering a big number in Detroit were negated by the Raiders, Giants, Skins and Bills all being better than I thought. We still paid the bills at 8-7, but only just. So, on to the picks!
Kansas City at ATLANTA (-3.5)
A game that will make you long for February, really. The Chiefs are coming off a de-pantsing by the previously DOA Raiders at home, while the Falcons stayed with the Bucs for a long time despite Matt Ryan suffering big-time growing pains. Neither team should be trusted to find their ass with both hands and a map, but Atlanta's at home, with the better RB (Michael Turner, not Larry "Runs, And Bitches, Like Your Grandmama" Johnson), QB (Ryan over practice squadder and Coastal Carolina's own Tyler Thigpen), WR (Roddy White over Dwayne Bowe, in the battle of the only guys on the field that are fairly certain to be in the league in 5 years) and home crowd.
If you're betting this game, you also probably are a regular at the dog track... and I'm there with you. Avoid the nachos.
Falcons 20, Chiefs 16
Oakland at BUFFALO (-8.5)
Everyone's darling in the AFC East gets a big home number and, one imagines, an inordinate amount of Suicide Pool action. They are coming off a show-us win on the road in Jacksonville, and come home to a Raider team that seems to be trying to get head coach Lane Kiffin fired by taking football back to the Bronko Nagurski age -- seriously, Jemarcus Russell threw for less yards than his wideout's jersey numbers last week, and it's not like Kansas City has shutdown corners. I think he gets a little more this week, in that it would be impossible to get a little less, and it's hard to give up this many points to a team that's facing a potentially dominating RB in Darren McFadden.
It won't be pretty, but it will be a cover, especially if Buffalo QB Trent Edwards gets greedy on the Raiders' (overall) good corners.
Bills 21, Raiders 14
Tampa Bay at CHICAGO (-5)
Am I going with back to back road dogs? Hell and yes. The Bears are coming off a late-game road collapse against a frisky Panthers team, while the Bucs let the Falcons stick around for far too long last week before putting them away with Earnest Graham's first good run of the day. Against the vaunted Bucs Cover Two, I don't see Kyle Orton playing mistake-free football, and I also don't see Matt Forte being able to keep the sticks moving enough to matter. The schedule also helps the Bucs here, as cold-weather games in Chicago were really not their cup of tea in the old alignment.
Finally, there's this -- it's Brian Griese's Revenge Game! You're not going to stop Brian Griese in a revenge game!
So give me the Bucs in a mild shocker -- not just a cover, but a win -- that really won't be that much of a shock, given that the Bears start Kyle Orton. (Also, to be fair, because if Vince Young had Orton's options at wideout, he'd be dead already. I am so mean and racist!)
Bucs 17, Bears 13
Carolina at MINNESOTA (pick em)
The home team is going -- by choice! -- to Gus Frerotte, which helps to explain the lack of home-field favoritism, despite the really good home field advantage that the Vikings have in their dome. The Panthers are coming off a bit of a gift win against the Bears, and while they were able to run the ball with good success with Jon "Moment of Zen" Stewart in the second half, I don't see them having the same patience or effectiveness in a loud dome. If Matt Forte can go for big yards against Carolina, Adrian Peterson can go for two times big yards... and probably will, since Frerotte will resemble, at times, an NFL quarterback. Plus, with his experience, he only makes 6 bonehead throws a game, which is a distinct edge over Tarvaris Jackson's even dozen.
There's also this: the Vikings need this game a lot more than the Panthers, and will play like it... despite the return of Steve Smith. Hey, after the Panthers lose this game, can everyone start telling the Steve Smith Is A Team Cancer story? That's always fun.
Vikings 17, Panthers 10
Miami at NEW ENGLAND (-11)
If Matt Cassel is ever going to put up numbers for his increasingly bitter fantasy owners (and yes, the owners of Randy Moss are thinking about a class-action suit), it would have to be this week against the moribund Fish, who allowed Kurt Warner to achieve a perfect quarterback rating in last week's immolation in the desert. Miami hasn't been able to run the ball worth a damn, and the Patriots know all about how jumping Chad Pennington's routes. To all the people who bought my pre-season hype on Ted Ginn Jr., I am very, very sorry... and happy as punch that he never found his way to any of my rosters.
I'm looking for the Patriots in a blowout that will make stupid people start to wonder if they'll be better without Brady after all. The answer is, um, no.
Patriots 34, Dolphins 17
Cincinnati at NEW YORK GIANTS (-10)
The other big number that I'm willing to lay this week is the Giants, just to ensure that they struggle. Big Blue used some late game Marc Bulger pathos to cover the spread in St. Louis, while the Bengals continued to swap the e for a u in their name against the Titans. All of the wheels are off the Carson Palmer bus, and the defense seems to be the same old fluffy soft tabbies you've known and started all of your fantasy league players against. Thanks to the Rams, Cincy isn't the worst team in the league, but man, they are awful, and you'd have to think that Marvin Lewis is wondering how to get out of his housing investment in a down economy.
Big Blue has shown a quiet ability to ground bad teams into putty with their triple-headed running game and reasonable mid-range passing game, and the pass rush still has more than enough push to make a bad team worse. I don't think they are all that good, but the Bengals sure aren't the team to exploit them, at least not at this point in the year.
Giants 27, Bengals 16
Houston at TENNESSEE (-5)
The Texans, fresh off a hurricane-inflicted early season bye, come to the surprising 2-0 Titans, who rode the competent game manager hand of Kerry Collins (hey, he knows how to throw to the wide receivers! that's useful!) to a by-the-numbers win over the Bungles. I kind of like this Texans team, or at least I did until they became de facto homeless. With a bye and something to prove, I think they cover, but don't win; the Titans just run and defend too well for that, and the Steve Slaton Breakout Game (Be patient! It's coming!) isn't happening yet. But it'll be tight.
Collins, by the way, is the rich-man's Gus Frerotte, in that when he hurts himself against a wall, he's probably drunk at the time.
Titans 20, Texans 17
Arizona at WASHINGTON (-1)
Let's try this again... hotshot NFC passing team comes to the nation's capital to play a 'Skins squad that shouldn't be very good, given their wideouts and coaching changes. Last week, it was New Orleans (albeit without Marques Colston, which might make a world of difference). This week, it's the Cardinals, fresh off a romp over the fetid Fish. I'm giving the edge to the Cards, because I actually do believe in their defense a little, and dammit, someone has to not be very good in the NFC East.
Oh, and if you're looking for fantasy league advice on whether to start Kurt Warner in this game, just check my lineups before gameday; if I have him in, you get him out, and vice versa.
Cardinals 24, Redskins 17
Detroit at SAN FRANCISCO (-2)
Original Mookie, a longtime FTT contributor who lives in the Bay Area, tells me that the locals are far too enthused about JT O'Sullivan, who has been collecting nicknames (JTO, JT Throw, Jay-T) like he's, you know, a real quarterback. Bringing your team back on the road in Seattle after you've hit the ground eight times, and preventing the locals from having to watch more of Alex Smith, is nice. But keeping your QB from taking eight sacks is, well, better.
This is the game that Frank Gore fans have been salivating over, but it's also a bit of a danger game, in that the Lions probably won't be playing from two touchdowns down for most of the game, as is their usual wont. I'm even tempted to pull the trigger for the road dogs here. But any time your team is auditioning Shawn Alexander and Cedric Benson as back-ups during the week, that reminds me... hey! Matt Millen isn't very smart! Stay away from him and his utterly, utterly awful football team!
Niners 24, Lions 21
St. Louis at SEATTLE (-6)
The Rams have looked like the worst team in the NFL for two straight weeks, while the Seahawks are going through whatever walks the streets and plays wideout. Missed in last week's collapse against the JTOs (see, that nickname has legs) was Julius Jones going for 100 yards and giving fantasy league owners a hope in hell that the Seattle running back committee had a chairman. This week, he'll find the going nice and easy against a Rams team that looks like it's trying to get head coach Scott Linehan fired before the leaves fall, and your over-under on the next Marc Bulger injury is two weeks. Take the under.
Oh, and if you were fooled into taking Stephen Jackson in this year's draft, you can stop paying attention to your fantasy league team any time now, really.
Seattle 27, St. Louis 17
New Orleans at DENVER (-5.5)
The week's best candidate for the over -- any over -- comes in the high air of Denver, where the hometown Broncos are still living in the afterglow of Ballsy Mike Shanahan and his Ballsy Two Point Conversion Win. Left unsaid in the celebration of the Rat's Balls is the fact that he probably went that way out of a sincere desire to not see his defense take the field again for another seven days, win or lose, but 2-0 is 2-0. For the Saints, they lost the chance to make a statement that the 2006 Good Times were back in a stumbling road loss to the Redskins. Now, they have to contend with the thin air and continued lack of Marques Colston, while Jeremy Shockey's owners are officially bent out of shape. The real culprit for the Saints, of course, is the running game, where Pierre Thomas has clearly taken over for Deuce McAllister but without the old production, and Reggie Bush is well on his way to becoming the most overrated player in the NFL.
Despite all that, I like the Saints to at least cover here, as it's tough to give up this many points in a game that should be Last Ball Wins, and I'm not quite buying the idea that Jay Cutler is going to rewrite the record books *just* yet.
Broncos 38, Saints 35
Pittsburgh at PHILADELPHIA (pick em)
No respect for the home town team, who have a make or break game this week against the visiting Steelers in a match that deserves Prime Time a lot more than the Jets and Chargers. Pittsburgh comes off a workmanlike road win in post-hurricane conditions in Cleveland, while we all remember what the Eagles were doing in last Monday's game for the ages in Dallas. I like the Birds here for the following factors:
1) Ben Rothlesberger got a little banged up last week, and I suspect he's not 100%.
2) Pittsburgh's offensive line isn't the backbone of the team, which means that TE Heath Miller stays in to block a lot. As Jason Witten showed in the second half in Dallas, the way to roast the Eagles secondary is to throw to a quality TE on deep middle passes, and watch him torture the new fraud that's in Brian Dawkins' jersey, or the old fraud that wears the Sean Considine gamer.
3) DeSean Jackson's end zone antics notwithstanding, the presence of the new #1 WR on the team means more holes for Brian Westbrook, and I think this is the week that Andy Reid takes advantage of that.
4) Donovan McNabb is, inexplicable fumble notwithstanding, playing at too high of a level right now to lose at home.
5) The Eagles simply need the game more than the Steelers, who know, on some level, that their division is going to be a walk in the park this year.
6) The AFC isn't better than the NFC anymore.
7) Mike Tomlin in a big game is still suspect.
8) I think the Eagles defense and special teams are better than the MNF game, and that they come out and show it.
As you might be able to tell by all the reasons, I'm still nervous as hell about this game, and not just because a loss will put them at least two games behind either the Cowboys, the Giants, or both. From the moment the schedules were released, this was the keystone game for the Eagles' season, especially with the short week of work. Here's hoping they are up to the task.
Eagles 27, Steelers 24
Jacksonville at INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5)
This line was released prior to the Bob Sanders injury news, but as good as he is, I suspect it won't move things too much in either direction. Jacksonville comes in 0-2 and desperate, while the Colts are .500 thanks only to the Houdini act they pulled last week in Minnesota. I like Indy in this game because they are at home, Peyton Manning looks to be getting the rust off, and the Jags are still hurting bad on the front line.
Besides, if you can't keep Trent Edwards, Lee Evans and Fred Jackson from beating you at home, why should you be able to beat Manning, Reggie Wayne and Joseph Addai on the road?
Colts 27, Jags 17
Cleveland (-1) at BALTIMORE
The hurricane-induced bye will kill the Ravens later this year, but this week it helps them a lot as they prepare for an 0-2 Browns team that has coughed up both games at home, albeit to quality opponents. The problem for the Browns is that what was supposed to be an explosive offense has been terrible, and their defense isn't exactly giving them short fields, either. For the Ravens, expect the defense to come out loud and proud in this one, and for the home team to win a field position battle in which Joe Flacco looks better than Derek Anderson, simply because he won't be playing with one eye over his shoulder.
Brady Quinn needs to be prepared to come into this game, and to hope like hell that he doesn't; it'll be much easier to keep the job with a week of practice and a win next week in Cincy.
Ravens 16, Browns 14
Dallas at GREEN BAY (pick em)
Surprising line on this one, where you'd think that Cowboy Luv and continuing skepticism over Aaron Rodgers might make the road team a field goal favorite, but maybe the bookies are thinking that everyone will play off that MNF and travel disadvantage. I like the home team here, because I think they have the ability to cover Jason Witten better than the Eagles did, and because I think Dallas will come into the game gassed from the MNF shootout.
Besides, as everyone is slowly starting to realize, the Packers have outstanding lineplay and skill people... and when you have that, the name on the back of the quarterback's jersey is not going to be the only thing that matters.
Packers 31, Dallas 28
New York Jets at SAN DIEGO (-6.5)
Watch this one with the sound off, unless you really, really want to hear Tony Kornheiser examine every minute detail of Brett Favre's New York Odyssey. The Chargers could not ask for a better get-well opponent, and after last week's Hochulicide in Denver, I'm betting that they come out hard and heavy against a Jets team that seems to have missed its opportunity. It's also not as if they don't have experience in coming back from early season holes in the Norv Turner Era. I'm looking for at least two turnovers from Number Four, and an easy Charger cover -- even if they don't get full participation from LaDanian Tomlinson -- with a special assist coming from the kicking game.
Finally, just to get you in the mood for the MNF telecast, here's a quick preview...
One of the things that you always hear, and tell yourself, if Week 1 didn't work out for you is how early it is. It's just one game, you know? Don't overreact. Stay in your shoes. Trust that your completely beaten down fantasy or real team can and will bounce back. And all that is well and good, except that if you go down 0-2, you're probably not getting out of it. (And 0-3? Forget about it.)
So people -- and the betting lines that serve as a barometer of their interest -- reflect that bedrock impatience. Let's take, for an example, the Jacksonville Jaguars. A week ago, they were everyone's dark horse pick to go to the Super Bowl from the AFC. They were tough, physical, with a dynamic running game, a QB that was coming into his own, and WRs that, even if they weren't very good, had to be improved.
Then they lost to the Titans on the road -- a 10-win team from last year, mind you, with one of the better defenses in the league -- on a day when Garrard turned it over three times. They also had some offensive line injuries. And voila... they're a pick'em candidate against a Bills team that's on the road, and who no one was picking to be more than .500 this year.
I'm thinking there's money to be made here, folks, if you're willing to be a little patient.
So why take that advice from a guy that wasn't even .500 ATS last year? Because if you were betting with the Shooter last week, you rolled to an 11-5 week against the spread, complete with two half-point covers. Can I possibly pull it off again this week? You'd be insane to think so, but who knows, maybe I've finally figured this out whole thing betting on pro football thing. Let's go to the picks!
(As always, the home team is in caps, and the spread pick is in italics.)
Green Bay (+6) at DETROIT
The smart money says this is a letdown game for the Pack, who have the short week and travel. They'll face a Lions team that can't possibly be as bad as they were in Atlanta, and they can certainly score some points with those wideouts. The Packers might also have to baby lead back Ryan Grant's hamstring in this game, which is a problem because backup Brandon Jackson is a terrible, terrible football player. Seriously, I know they spent a high pick on him, but he's just awful.
I believe in all of these factors -- enough to think this won't be a 2 to 3 touchdown blowout. More than that, no.
The Lions spent week one making Michael Turner look like the best RB in the league, and, um, he's not. The smart money says they should cover, and that you shouldn't trust a mostly unproven quarterback like Aaron Rodgers in his first road test. However, there is a functional disconnect with putting "smart money" and "the Lions" in close proximity. I'm thinking Jennings and Driver combine for three touchdowns this week, and for Kitna to turn the ball over against the Packers' opportunistic defense.
Packers 31, Lions 24
Oakland at KANSAS CITY (+3.5)
Both teams travel after losses, but they had very different experiences. Kansas City goes home after becoming America's Sweethearts by crippling Tom Brady and coming close to upsetting the defending AFC champions in a game where everyone expected them to be complete roadkill. The Raiders go east after being, well, complete roadkill in their annual immolation against the Broncos in Oakland, continuing the time-honored tradition of making America wonder why we have to endure a double-header start to MNF.
Neither team is going to avoid double digits in the loss column this year, but with flashes of competence in the form of Damon Huard behind center, versus the continued buffonery of Jemarcus Russell (we're just four months away from everyone knowing he's going to be a bust), the Chiefs have a clear advantage in addition to the home field. Look for a big game from Tony Gonzalez to keep the chains moving early, and Larry Johnson to do it late.
Chiefs 24, Raiders 13
Giants (+9) at ST. LOUIS
Is there any good reason to think that the Rams aren't one of the three worst teams in football? No, not really. Is there any reason to doubt that the Giants continue to be a force to be reckoned with, and have the ability to grind bad teams into paste behind a multi-faceted running game? No, not really.
So why take the Rams to cover? Because I suspect that New York's Road Warrior act of last year was a fluke, and that they are going to have a very hard time taking this game seriously after watching the film of that relay team effort the Eagles put up. Also, well, Eli Manning can throw picks against any team, good or bad, and this has the feel of a game he wins, but keeps close. Look for the Rams to do some things on offense and get the people who drafted their offensive players for their fantasy teams to get off the ledge, if only for one week. The garbage time cover will fly here.
Giants 28, Rams 20
Indianapolis at MINNESOTA (+3)
Alarm bells are ringing for both teams, who are watching preseason Super Bowl dreams melt away in the heat of a potential 0-2 start. The Colts come in banged up, with critical offensive pieces Jeff Saturday, Joseph Addai and Dallas Clark all questionable, and Peyton Manning still looking rusty after a work-free pre-season. The Vikings stayed close but not quite with the Packers in a sloppy MNF game, and still have the whole Good Tarv / Bad Tarv thing happening at quarterback.
The whole key here will be whether the Colts can keep Manning free from Jared Allen, and if the Vikings can make the Colts pay for an Everyone But Tony Dungy in the Box effort to make anyone but Adrian Peterson beat them. It also doesn't help that the Colts just released starting DL Ed Johnson for a marijuana violation. But in a tight and entertaining game, I like Manning's veteran guile, and the potential for more touches for explosive 3rd wideout Anthony Gonzalez, to carry the day. I'm also counting on a brutal Bad Tarv pick to open things up late.
Colts 31, Vikings 17 Tennessee (+1.5) at CINCINNATI
Two more teams that aren't looking like they'll be playing relevant games in cold weather, but at least the Titans can't be 0-2 after this one. With Vince Young hurt and having his mommy tell us about his hurt feelings, the Titans are going to go with Kerry Collins, which actually might be a plus, given how he's played better than Young for some time now. Meanwhile, the Bengals got dismantled in Baltimore in an effort that's getting many to start the Marvin Lewis Death Watch. The pick here is for the Titans defense and rookie runner Chris Johnson to redeem the ugliness, if only by a little.
Titans 17, Bengals 13
Saints (+3.5) at REDSKINS
This one gets a little complicated by the Saints being on the road and without #1 wideout Marques Colston, but with Devery Henderson, David Patten and (especially) Jeremy Shockey taking up the slack, it shouldn't matter very much this week. The Skins come in with a few extra days thanks to their Thursday New York crushfest, but this offense is too discombobulated to put up more than three touchdowns in a game, even against the fairly pliable Saints.
Saints 28, REDSKINS 24
Chicago at CAROLINA (even)
Both teams surprised AFC contenders on the road last week, with the Panthers taking a last-second win in San Diego and the Bears smacking the Colts in the mouth. Carolina will still be without Steve Smith, and it will also be a strange reunion moment for Moose Muhammad, who interrupted his Panther career with a few years in Chicago. Carolina is the choice here, because I'm believing in the Jake Delhomme that lead that late comeback on the road... more than I'm believing in the Kyle Orton that managed the game with a dominant run game from Matt Forte. This Bears team needs early leads to avoid over-reliance on their passing game, and they won't get it this week.
Panthers 20, Bears 13
Buffalo at JACKSONVILLE (even)
The Bills looked dominant in smacking the Seahawks around last week, while the Jags have lost three offensive linemen already this year. It adds up to a line that would have been inconceivable in pre-season, because no one could have seen the Bills having the talent to compete with the Jags, let alone on the road. As I mentioned in the open, I'm thinking a little patience helps here, and that Garrard won't turn the ball over that often again, even if he does hit the turf a few times. This will be one of those weeks where Maurice Jones-Drew looks like fantasy gold.
Jaguars 24, Bills 17
San Francisco at SEATTLE (+2.5)
Two very hurting teams, with the Seahawks coming off a road spanking from the Bills, and the Niners getting beat at home by the Cardinals. Of the two, Seattle is more hurt, with their top three wideouts all on the shelf for this game. Oh, and Alex Smith has likely played his last snap for the Niners, cementing his place in the All-Time #1 Pick Bust Hall of Fame. I think we all knew it was over when he lost the job to JT O'Sullivan, who might have reasonable numbers here, in addition to some surprisingly tasty fried fries on a stick.
Anyway, the Niners could surprise, but Seattle has spent most of the last decade recovering from road turds like last week, and they will do it again -- even if it's done by Seneca Wallace throwing to himself. In a battle between a guy who used to be a good coach versus a guy who never was, go with the former.
Seahawks 21, Niners 17
Atlanta at TAMPA BAY (+4.5)
Brian Griese gets the start for the Bucs for the injured Jeff Garcia, while Matt Ryan takes his first road start for the Falcons. The difference between Griese and Garcia is subtle but important, but I can't see Ryan doing much against a smart Cover 2 defense in his first road start, and Michael Turner will not break 100 yards in this game. I'm hoping that Earnest Graham will get the majority of touches here, because man alive, Warrick Dunn is more spent than last month's paycheck at a no-limit game...
Bucs 20, Falcons 10
New England at NEW YORK (pick 'em)
Speaking of another line that no one would have believed a week ago, here's a pick'em game for the defending AFC champions versus a 4-win team from last year. Matt Cassel takes his first road start against Brett Favre in a game where, realistically, no one has any idea what to expect. If the Jets hadn't held on to the win in Miami -- and it was a very near thing, really -- and the Pats hadn't gotten some stops against Damon Huard in the last minute of their game in New England... well, there's no way that anyone in Vegas has any idea where this game goes.
In games like this one, I look to the coaches to have a stronger impact than usual... and that's not a factor that anyone but J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS Fan doesn't see breaking for New England. Expect the Patriots to throw more than you'd expect but less than usual, and for the blame for the loss to be put squarely on the shoulders of the intercepted Brett Favre. Remember, Jets Fan, don't boo him or he'll threaten to retire again...
Patriots 24, Jets 21
Miami at ARIZONA (+5)
This is a big number to give up to the Cardinals, especially when the Dolphins looked like a real live football team for much of last week's game, but the Buzzsaw has a bit of a different look to them than in the past. They seem to get that limiting Kurt Warner's mistakes isn't a terrible idea, and they are using rookie back Tim Hightower to improve their short yardage effectiveness while keeping Edge James a little less stale. Edge hasn't had a caddy worth a damn in his entire Arizona career; maybe the Cards are actually ready to enter the 20th century of American football thought.
For the Dolphins, a suspect running game was the culprit in last week's home opening loss to the Jets. This week, it'll be a defense that can't get off the field, especially on third down throws to Anquan Boldin. I think it's a barely cover game for the home team.
Cardinals 24, Dolphins 17 Baltimore (+2) at HOUSTON
Here's another case where I'm thinking Vegas is overreacting to Week 1. Houston was an 8-8 team last year with a backup quarterback, a hurt #1 WR and a bad running game; all should be upgraded, if not actually top of the line. The Ravens are also starting rookie Joe Flacco on the road, and while they look like they have a defense, the road does funny things to people. Both teams will be .500 after this.
Texans 24, Ravens 13
San Diego at DENVER (pick 'em)
Instant early season showdown in Denver, where the Chargers are staring down the barrel of a two-game deficit with the Broncos. I'm going with the visitors despite their history of horrors in the mile-high air, because even though the Broncos are getting back Brandon Marshall and have something special in Eddie Royal, and the Chargers have given up the ghost of Shawne Merriman... well, the Chargers are still more talented at 15 starting positions, especially on the lines. The real LDT shows up this week. Chargers 24, Broncos 21
Pittsburgh (+6) at CLEVELAND
The Steelers bring in their shockingly effective red zone running attack to the bad smell Browns, who could be winless after two home games and two games down in the division. I'm thinking that will happen, along with the strong rise in cries for Brady Quinn to save the Cleveland season, because the way to beat the Steelers (i.e., exploit their mediocre offensive line) isn't something that Cleveland can do. Short of some Joe Cribbs magic in the return game, I don't see how the Browns pull this off, even at home.
Steelers 31, Browns 17
Eagles at DALLAS (+2.5)
Welcome back to those halcyon days of yore (mmm, yore) when the Monday night game was truly the most compelling matchup of the week. Last year, Dallas outclassed the Eagles by every measure in their two matchups, creating most of the curdle in the milk, especially when the most loathed player in franchise history got to celebrate on their home turf.
Both teams come off impressive beatdowns of teams that have had their season's prospects given a hard downhill shove. Dallas gets slightly more point for taking out Cleveland on the road, while the Eagles destroyed the Rams in a near shutout. Reggie Brown will be back for the Eagles, which may or may not be a good thing, if it means less looks for DeSean Jackson. Marion Barber will play with painful ribs, which hurts, but not enough.
One last thing to keep in mind here -- the spread line started at Dallas +9, and evaporated all the way down to today's number. I don't remember a line ever moving this much during the week without dramatic injury news... so you can tell there's a lot of Philly money here.
Having said all of that... Dallas is the home team and has a talent edge. It's early in the year, when the older and thinner Cowboys should have an edge. And when you bet, it's with your head, not your heart...
Welcome to another year of losing money with class, fellow degenerates. Here's how it works: I'm going to write and pick every single damn game of this here NFL season, and you're going to, if you are smart, go the opposite way and make money. Now that we all know what to expect, let's begin. The home team is in caps, and my spread pick is in italics.
Washington at GIANTS (+3.5). How bad did the 'Skins look in the preseason? Bad enough that people are shying away from Clinton Portis as a fantasy pick not because he's kind of crazy and injury prone, but because they don't want to own a #1 running back from a team that's going to be behind by two touchdowns or more in most of their games. It's hard to imagine that Washington doesn't right the ship a little bit, at least before their offensive linemen suffer from their annual bout of polio, but oh, man, have they been bad... and it's very possible, given that their head coach hire (Jim Zorn) is a historic reach, that, well, they are going to be this bad.
The Giants, of course, are primed for the Super Bowl Hangover Year, especially with their pass rush corrupted by injury and retirement, but it won't hurt them in this game. Expect Manning to Burress after a steady diet of pounding runs, and the G-Men to pull away late. NEW YORK 28, Washington 17.
Detroit (+4) at ATLANTA. How bad are the Falcons going to be this year? So bad that the team is having to discount the *season opener* to try to get them past the horror of an opening week blackout. Of course, this is Atlanta, home of the worst sports fans in America (you think I've forgotten about your half-empty baseball playoffs? Not so much), and the game does involve the sad-sack Falcons in Year Two of The Vick Penance. Matt Ryan gets the start and could surprise the world a little; I certainly do hate giving points on a road game involving Jon Kitna. Matter of fact, I'm not going to.
Detroit 24, ATLANTA 21.
Jets (+5.5) at MIAMI. Will Chad Pennington get his revenge? Will Brett Favre know what to do when the local media doesn't polish his knob in the post-game? Is Bill Parcells serious about this whole Ricky Williams timeshare with Ronnie Brown? And why am I asking so many questions of two teams that probably will both whiff on the playoffs, anyway?
Once again, I hate to lay the big number on the suspect road favorite, but this time I'm going to swallow my pride. I just can't see the Fish keeping the handle enough to prevent a little run up at the end here, and a bit of a coming-out party for Thomas Jones, who might even see a hole or two this year. Besides, with Favre on board, I'm pretty sure 10,000 Jets fans will fly out for the game.
Jets 31, MIAMI 24.
Tampa Bay at NEW ORLEANS (+3.5). Did you know that home favorites covered the spread 85% of the time when they won the game in 2007? Neither did I, because it's not exactly true, but for a second you thought you were going to have a real gambling insight, didn't you?
Anyway, the Saints are going to have a pinball offense this year if they can run the ball at all. Against the Bucs at home, they'll be able to, and the Bucs won't be able to keep pace. Take the over, too.
SAINTS 34, Bucs 24.
Houston at PITTSBURGH (+7.5). Can the Texans continue to make the slow walk up from Expansion Awful? I like their chances to stay close in Week 1, as Rashard Mendenhall is still combating rookie fumbling issues, and the Texans have some healthy weapons on offense and a much better running game than advertised. In the end, Big Ben will pull out a win, but not by the full nut.
PITTSBURGH 27, Houston 21.
Jacksonville (+3.5) at TENNESSEE
Gawd, the blog ate my Jags-Titans pick. I hate when that happens. Anyway, imagine something witty here about a game that would wrap up in about 90 minutes if you took the commercials out, because neither team will want to throw much. If you like your football from the mid-70s, this is your game of the week.
Jacksonville 17, TITANS 10.
St. Louis at PHILADELPHIA (+6.5).
Vegas and the Football Outsiders love the Eagles, which means they always come with a 1 to 2 point penalty if you are going to bet them. Andy Reid's teams have laid eggs on Opening Day before, and the Rams are going to pose a problem with their not yet stricken offensive line and weapons... but I'm thinking the Eagles defense will actually force a turnover or two this year, and the Eagle offensive line should exert its will late. It won't be a blowout, especially with the Eagle WRs all banged up, but I think they get it out and get the cover. Barely.
EAGLES 24, Rams 17.
Seattle at BUFFALO (+0).
Your classic pick something else game, in that you've got a bad road team with no healthy wideouts (the Seabags) against a road team that's mostly devoid of talent. I'm going with the Bills here, because Marshawn Lynch should be able to sway the game by himself, and Seattle is just that bad on the road.
BUFFALO 20, Seattle 17.
Kansas City at NEW ENGLAND (+13.5)
There's been some wailing and gnashing of teeth in New England over the quality of their secondary and the health of their quarterback. The first won't matter this weak, and the latter is more or less complete bull, because it's the Patriots and they lie, lie, lie. Kansas City will be behind early and often in this game. NEW ENGLAND 38, Kansas City 17.
Cincinnati (+2.5) at BALTIMORE
The number has been creeping up here because the world is not ready for the Joe Flacco era, and people think the Bengals are good because they own them in fantasy leagues. I'm going with the home dog, because I think Ray Rice will run wild, and the Bengals are just Gut Less. But if you're betting hard on this game, you need help.
RAVENS 17, Bengals 16.
Carolina at SAN DIEGO (+7). Can the Panthers pull off a week 1 road upset? Probably not, especially with Steve Smith on the voluntarily stupid list, but hope springs eternal with Norv Turner on the opposite sideline. The Panthers might be able to run and keep this game manageable, but I suspect that they won't be able to keep drives alive on third down... and that the Chargers will run the ball late to get the cover. CHARGERS 24, Panthers 16.
Arizona (+1) at SAN FRANCISCO. A shootout game awaits, with the road team going with their best quarterback (Kurt Warner) while the home squad will be debuting their Mike Martz Offense. Let's just say I'm not a Martz fan.
Cardinals 27, 49ERS 21.
Dallas (+6) at CLEVELAND. The more I see the Browns this year, the less I like them. The offensive line might be good, but Derek Anderson has been terrible, Jamal Lewis could get old in a hurry, and I have no confidence that their defense has gotten a lot better. Dallas is loaded with talent that knows how to win in the regular season, and I'm smelling a blowout here. It's going to be a long year in Cleveland.
Cowboys 34, BROWNS 20.
Chicago at INDIANAPOLIS (+8). The Colts can't ask for a better match-up to start their year -- a grass team, a bad quarterback, in a dome in the night game -- and yet it still has to be worrisome, given the injuries to center Jeff Saturday and health issues of Peyton Manning. But to go the other way means taking Kyle Orton, and there's no more of that sentence that needs to be written. It's the Super Bowl all over again, really, in that the Colts will run the ball and win. COLTS 27, Bears 16.
Minnesota (+1) at GREEN BAY. Welcome to the first slap in the face to Aaron Rodgers, in that the bookkeepers aren't even making him a home favorite in their first game of the year against a team with a terrible quarterback. I think the Pack rolls here, and that the questions will be more on the Vikings quarterback situation than the Packers. PACKERS 21, Vikings 17.
Denver (+0.5) at OAKLAND. As part of ESPN's continuing effort to make Monday Night Football utterly unwatchable, here's a home game in Oakland that will make you forget that you missed football. As usual, it will make Bronco Fan think they've got a better team than they do. Broncos 28, RAIDERS 17.
More preview work for the Carnival, this time taking a good swing at everyone's favorite treadmill, the Arizona Cardinals. Plus, there's nearly nothing about Matt Leinart!
Another heaping pile of Shooter Words here, with plenty of parting shots at Shaun Alexander's expense. I'm going to miss that guy, much in the same way that you miss your old drunk uncle who was also shambling around the edge of family events before falling down. Untouched. For no gain.
A couple of previews (for the Packers and Giants, respectively) today over at the Carnival, especially valuable for all of your hard-core fantasy football honks. In another 24 hours or so, I'll be posting extensive sleeper and bust lists... which is when the last of my drafts are put to bed. Hurry back.
Why write about a team I hate? Becuase no one else wanted the job, and I think they're going to end the year with unhappiness. So why wouldn't I want to write about them?
Anyway, go click, enjoy, and remember all the good soul-crushing playoff defeats the Cowboys have endured this millenium. It'll make you feel warm all over.
For once, folks, it's not a list for the Carnival, but the full season preview. Go see that I'm predicting the same 11-5 year that I always predict, for reasons that you can probably anticipate...
New England is a 12 point favorite, down from 14 at the open. The over/under is 54, down from 55.
Having already made fun of this kind of thing earlier this week at the Carnival, shamed by my sub-.500 prognostication record, and embittered by a matchup that's had me rooting for Bruce Dern in a blimp, injuries and pestilence... well, dammit, there's been 265 picks this year up to now, so let's just get this over the finish line, shall we?
There's basically two ways to go on this pick.
1) Tight game. Here, what you've got going for you is the last two months of Patriot football, where Brady hasn't protected the ball to his previous levels, the linebackers and safeties have given up a lot to tight ends and running backs in the middle, the special teams haven't made the back-breaking plays and Lawrence Maroney has been more important to the offense than Randy Moss. You are also betting on the idea that Eli Manning and the Giants have momentum, a good running game, and a pass rush that will give the Patriots enough long third downs to get off the field, keeping them under 30 points.
There are four problems with this theory.
a) Belichick has had two weeks to plan for Tom Coughlin. What was normally a small advantage just got larger.
b) Eli Manning doesn't do well with odd-man blitzes, and the single best thing this Patriot defense does is get heat that way. Rodney Harrison may be one of the dirtiest players in the NFL, good for at least one boneheaded penalty per game, and if he played for the Giants, Patriot Fan would want him tried for war crimes. He also gets to the QB nearly every time he's sent.
c) Super Bowls tend toward bad game blowouts, though that trend has not shown up very often recently.
d) The Giants' secondary has done an admirable job in covering for its safe spots, mostly due to the pressure of the front line. But they've also played three playoff games against QBs that all played their worst game of the season against them. That's not all coincidence, but rolling craps four times in a row is hard to do, and every observer of those Giants playoff games have talked about how there have been opportunities downfield for the opposition. Translation: Guys Are Wide Open.
2) Blowout. If you're going with a blowout, you're picking the favorites; no one, short of a tremendously myopic Giants Fan, thinks that Blue will win in a walk. With this option, you're thinking the early-season good-weather Patriot offense will show up... in a warm-weather stadium in Arizona. You've also got the strong likelihood of a bounce-back game from Brady, who did throw three picks against the Chargers, and the G-Men being concerned enough about Maroney to risk playing off Moss a little more than the Jaguars and Chargers did. You're also gambling that Manning will turn back into the QB that looked like a legacy pick up until December of 2007.
The troubles with this theory are:
a) Karma. From the Boston Globe letting you pre-order a book celebrating the Perfect Season to the Brady Boot questions, from Spygate to Moss And Battery, you're throwing your money on a big cover win from a team whose public approval ratings have more or less mirrored the Bush Administration. Patriot Act, indeed.
b) Recency. The Patriots have played the last two months with a growing stick up their ass -- there's just been less of the run-it-up gadgetry, LBs in the backfield, reverse and other stuff going on. Teams have been making them dink and dunk, which they've happily done... but that kind of thing doesn't usually create the 40+ point output that causes easy covers.
c) Special teams. The Giants have a reasonable edge here, especially if Feagles and Tynes don't spit the bit like they did in the sub-zero cold of Green Bay. The Pats will need to go farther, and take more time to do it.
d) As 12.5 point favorites that are going for perfection, against a #5 seed that hasn't been here before, the Giants are as loose as a SB team can be. If the game isn't a blowout in the second quarter, it's not going to be a blowout later.
Having said all that... I just think the Pats are going to score in the red zone all day in good weather, and that they are just not going to be denied. I'm also, of course, betting the opposite of what I'm rooting for, if only because the Giants made TO cry.
Patriots 35, Giants 20... which is the Pats plus the OVER. Your MVP, with 3 TDs from short range and over 100 yards on the day, is Lawrence Maroney.
Giants at PACKERS - The Pack is a 7.5 point favorite, with a 40 point over / under.
It's said so often that it has to be a cliche, but that doesn't make it less true: the quarterback gets too much credit when a team wins, and too much blame when the team loses. Put that truism on steroids, HGH and a rare form of Bolivian rat extract, synthesized with an infusion of that glowing yellow-green goop that powers your average muscled supervillain... and that just starts to approximate the level of what's been happening with Eli Manning.
The Unstoppable Citizen Watch pitchman has posted the following combined statistics in the Giants two road playoff wins: 32 for 45 for 348 yards and 4 touchdowns. No picks, no fumbles.
Efficient low yardage. Low risk. In both games, his team had a first-down free quarter -- in Tampa Bay, the first, and in Dallas, the fourth. He's also taken four sacks. It's good, but if you were to ask me for a top 5 list of reasons why the Giants are still alive, Eli's sitting at #4, behind the DL, the RBs and the coaching.
And yet, since we are so wrapped up in the belief that the quarterback has to be the reason why a team wins or loses... because it so often is. And the germ of the idea creeps in, which is that he's really turned a corner, that maybe the loss of Shockey was the best thing that could have ever happened to him, and come to think of it, the way he brushed off Benedict Barber at the start of the year was pretty cool...
And only a Grinch or Giants Hater would then note that with just one more win, he finally will have reached the heights of Kerry Collins.
In both of their wins, they've had help. The Bucs had a hobbled Galloway. The Cowboys had a rusty Glenn and Owens at less than 100%. Garcia and Romo were both rattled by the Giants' pressure; Favre and the Packers, by the numbers this year, were the best in the NFC against that. And at some point, the wide-open receivers in the middle of their secondary have to cost them, just as they did against the Patriots.
Credit should also be given to the coaching staff for (finally?) accentuating what Eli does well -- a quicker than average release with good accuracy on short throws -- and limiting what he does poorly (improv and locking in on a single receiver, which leads to backbreaking picks). It's as if they finally accepted him for what he is, 40+ games into a career that didn't look like it was going anywhere pleasant. At the start of the year, most people thought the Giants were a last-place finisher in the NFC East, with somewhere between 5 and 8 wins. They've succeeded beyond their wildest hopes, and Eli, to me, has become the starter by merit instead of by heritage. I have officially retired the Fredo nickname, and Giants fans can no take him to their heart as much as they did Collins or the pre-Super Bowl winning Phil Simms.
So why am I going to the poisoned well for the third time and betting against them? Because I just don't see their ceiling as being high enough to win a game when the other team plays well, and at some point, someone's bound to do that. (People point to the Pats game in Week 17 as a big clue, but the Pats won that game as soon as they decided to blitz.)
The Giants gained a whopping 57 yards in the second half in Dallas last week, and won the game. Roll that around in your head for a little while. They are also going against a nasty history for the road team playing its third week in the NFC: this way almost always leads to a 20+ plus loss.
Against a Packers team that has a very good running game when Ryan Grant isn't putting the ball on the ground, and a defense that can make good WRs disappear... well, as the economists say, things that can't continue don't. And we're not even getting into the problem that the Giants defense is entirely dependent on getting a big pass rush, and the Packers are the best team in the NFC at getting the ball out fast.
PACKERS 27, Giants 17 -- which gives me the Packers plus the OVER.
* * * * *
Chargers at PATRIOTS -- Pats are a 14.5 point favorite with a 46.5 point over
Let's start with the good news for the road team here. Tomlinson seems likely to play, and if he can't, it's (shh) really not that big of a drop to Turner and Sproles, because both of those guys are good. The Chargers also have a potential advantage in special teams, where Mike Scifres came through huge when they needed a big punt, and both kickers were shaky last week. Chambers and Jackson have played their best two games of the season in the last two weeks. After last week's off-the-charts upset in Indy (seriously, has the defending Super Bowl champions ever lost a playoff game at home when the other team was without its three best offensive players?), they are playing with house money here. No one thinks they can win, and the Patriots haven't covered a spread in a long time. Finally, the Patriots have no home field advantage, and I don't buy the idea that it's all the field's fault. Their fans are so spoiled and delusional, they honestly think that no one has ever booed a Punt Pass and Kick contestant for wearing the wrong colors before. (Seriously, Pats Fans are hated for more than the reason that their teams are good. I'd go into the reasons why, but I only have these two hands and so many pills left on my prescription.) Finally, as perhaps the biggest underdog ever in a conference championship, maybe they'll come in with exceptional We've Been Disrespected Fuel.
Unfortunately, that's about it, and it's nowhere near enough.
The Patriots have the (vastly superior) coach. They are at home against a warm-weather California team, at night, with temperatures in the 20s to 30s. The Chargers have real problems with slot receiver coverage; the Patriots feast on that. The Chargers get almost all of their QB pressure out of two players, leaving them susceptible to good game preparation by a focused coaching opponent. They are likely to start their backup quarterback, who has arm strength and ball control issues. And they are going against what might be the best team in NFL history, with a strong edge in postseason experience. The Pats have the best offense in the history of the league. The Chargers have... Billy Volek.
Can the Chargers beat the Patriots? Yes, but it will require an astounding set of circumstances. First, Cromartie will have to make Moss disappear in solo coverage (hint: hit him early and hard), and maybe even come up with a pick or two. Merriam and Phillips will have to put Brady on the ground. The Chargers will have to be at least +2 in turnovers, and get more big plays out of special teams. Gates will have to be at nearly 100% and come up with over 100 yards. They can't fall behind by more than 10 points at any time, they have to control time of possession, they have to maintain their composure when the breaks and penalty calls go against them, and they have to finish the game on offense with their running game... and no one has managed to do that to the Patriots defense in the fourth quarter all year. That's been their secret in the close games; late, they shut the door, and their offense kicks it down.
People generally think that the way to beat this Patriots team is to simply outscore them in a shootout, but I don't think that's it. I think you have to have the ball for 40 minutes, and score slowly. Converting a surprise onside kick might help, too. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that the Chargers can do that. They're good on the lines.
Or they could just send some disposable defensive player after Brady's knees, the way that the blogosphere has been waiting / hoping / praying for since about, oh, October first.
The prevailing winds are that the Patriots are 8 to 1 favorites. In their biggest wins of the year, the Colts had no running game and made critical turnovers, and kept a so-so Titans team in the game late at home. They won a bad division, they're beat up, and it's hard to shake the feeling that bad blood and history or no, they're just kind of happy to be here. None of that -- and especially not the QB -- leads me to think this is going to be much of a game, though I do suspect the cover is going to be touch and go, because I suspect the Pats are going to get bored.
Pats 31, Chargers 16 -- which gives me the Pats plus the OVER.
Now, having said all of that.. boy, I'm just hoping the games are good. (There will also be, as I'm sure you are breathlessly awaiting, the return of the Quasi Live Blog, assuming another child doesn't combust.) Happy gambling!
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strengths and weaknesses of the playoff teams. I'm just here for the hate.
