Chargers-Steelers Live Blogging: Third Quarter

I get back a little late, but in that the only thing I missed were Steeler plays when the entire quarter consists of them, so be it. Ben just misses Holmes on a huge bomb, and he was open; that would have been sensational. A draw to Parker fools no one, and the third and 11 is downright surgical to Washington for 15. Clean pocket, clean line, laser throw, perfect. When Ben's right, there's no one better. Parker gets two to the left, and if this was a fight, San Diego would be looking wobbly; you do not want to be down two scores to this defense on the road. Davis gets nothing on a screen, and third and eight is forced. Another clean pocket as the Chargers try trickery, and Miller makes a nice catch and turn for the first. Parker for a little more than usual, and then Miller off the rollout gets in at the goal line. As predicted, the fact that the Chargers don't get enough pressure on the QB to keep Miller in to pass protect is just immense, and it's 21-10 after an 81-yard, 14-play drive that eats over half of the third quarter. A thing of beauty, and that's the 10.5 point favorite that I picked.

Can San Diego answer and maintain any drama? Yes, because Sproles plays the game at a different speed than everyone else. A 63-yard kickoff return is just electric, and the Chargers from the 27... but the ball is tipped at the line on a slant where the lineman gets his hands up, and just that fast, the Steelers get the turnover. Just about the worst thing, short of a fumbled kickoff return, for the road team, as that defense looked gassed when it was just a 4-point game. Bus for the airport is warming up, Norv!

And just to make it official, Norv wants to review the interception ruling. Since Phil Simms thinks it's a good challenge, I don't need to say how this ends, right? At least they don't have any more to waste for the rest of the game. (And yes, Simms is still saying how smart of a play it was to challenge. Jeez.)

Steelers trying to grind it out, and the CBS mikes are picking up a lot of verbiage on the field now; exciting! The third and three from the gun is trickery in which Ben throws a nice little block to get Holmes for the first down. It's not far from Confetti Bucket time, Charger Fan...

Parker for 4, who celebrates his tackle as if it weren't at the end of a four yard gain. Chargers not exactly showing us the smarts here. The RB breaks it to the right on the 18th Steeler play for the Chargers 1, but it comes back on a hold by Miller. On 2nd and 16 from the gun, Moore takes a draw for five, and it's one more chance for the exhausted Charger defense to get off the field. The third and 11 is Ben from the gun to Moore, but Weddle stops him well in front of the sticks, and some drama is still with us. The Berger punt is a freak play, as it bounces off Weddle's helmet for the Steeler recovery. Since you can't advance a muff -- but you can wear it, possibly as a nicer accessory than a Steeler Gimp Mask -- the Steelers get the ball at the Chargers 23. And yes, The Exhausted Charger Defense is about to become A Theme.

A false start makes it first and fifteen. The Steelers are at 100 to 0 for yards in this half. Ward gets it closer with another big play, and roughness at the end of draws the first down. Parker gets a few, Ben dances all over before throwing it out of bounds, and the third quarter ends with Russell taking it to the six-inch line on an inside run. The quarter ends with the Steelers up 21-10, and a yard away from putting this one strongly out of reach. Your time of possession in that quarter: 14:47 to 0:13. Wow.

Chargers-Steelers Live Blogging: Second Quarter

Rivers to Gates gets them close to the sticks, but the Chargers can't convert a third down with Sproles, and Norv goes for the challenge prior to his punt. This move didn't work for Coughlin in the early game either, Norv! The challenge is crushed, Simms likes the move because it's stupid, and Scifres gets it inside the 20 on a Moore fair catch.

Parker with room and a burst gets 7, and if anyone likes the bye, it's a RB. San Diego with a 2-to-1 time of possession edge so far. Parker gets the first on a crease to the right, and he clearly likes facing the Chargers. A third straight carry nets him six, and he's got 7 for 41 so far. A spread draw is still his carry, and his fourth straight carry is another first down. It's old-time football, though he does hit the sidelines after that.

Moore comes in and gets four as the Chargers keep getting beaten at the point of attack. On second, Parker goes for 3 on the right side, and the Steelers are clearly trying to establish physicality. Third and three is a big deal here, and Ben from the gun is betrayed by a false start flag. You can't have that at home, even if you are anticipating a blitz. Third and 8 from the gun sees Ben with time, but the fullback can't make it, and it's fourth and two. Ben wisely hurries the team to the line, catching the Chargers in mid-change, and they take another timeout to deal with it. After the break, Berger's punt almost stays in bounds, but leaks its way in for a touchback.

The Chargers start with Harrison looking dangerous for the sack, and a near pick on the inside pass route. Now, that's the team I expected to see. A terrible looking screen is aborted by the QB on second. From the gun on third, Rivers throws a fly from pressure, and Jackson bails him out with a fantastic effort; the Steelers challenge, as they must. 50-50 call, and seriously, Jackson made an insane play if it's upheld. It's not, and the Chargers punt. Only Lynn Swann gets to make the play in Pittsburgh, punk! A nearly blocked punt leads to a fair catch at the Steelers 39.

Holmes on mild trickery for 3. Washington gets 5 on an out with a lot of extra useless running. On third from the gun, Ben has all day, but Davis can't get the two yards to move the sticks, and the Charger defense has come to play. A fake punt is snapped to the upback and is absolutely stuffed at the line, and Heinz Field is suddenly silent. Huge play there.

From the Steeler 44, Sproles loses two. From the gun, Rivers hits Naanee, who can't hold on. Third down is a huge play for the defense, and from the gun, Rivers finds Gates for the first down, beating Woodley badly. That was way too easy. Sproles on a delay loses four, and that's not the kind of running play that helps him. Rivers finds him out of the backfield, and Woodley crushes him, as the ball is behind him. Third down and 12 from the 32 is another field goal worry distance, but a gain to Gates makes that much more manageable. Kaeding in to try from 42 at the two-minute warning. It's the hard end of the stadium, but he gets it anyway, and it's 10-7 Chargers.

Steelers start at the 34 with 1:52 left. Ben from the gun has time to find Holmes and move the chains, despite pressure. The Chargers rush five, Moore gets nine, and Shawn Phillips is down, costing the Chargers a timeout that they wouldn't use anyway. From the gun on second and one, Ben misses Miller, who was wide open in the flat; just a bad throw there. Gary Russell converts in the power formation, and Pittsburgh calls time with 1:06 left. Nice run by Russell to move the chains.

From the gun at the Charger 40, Ben has all day and misses Holmes 25 yards downfield; another bad miss and clear opportunity. On second from the gun, he finds Miller to move the chains, but an illegal formation brings it back. Finally, they get the big play they needed, as Ben finds Ward from the gun after a pump fake, with a pristine pocket, for a 40 yard gain to the 3 yard line. As usual, the offense can't get it snapped after the big play, and despite the fact that Ward ran out of bounds, Ben takes a timeout.

A toss to Parker has three outstanding blocks, and the running back's first contact is in the end zone. Just a thing of beauty, that. With the PAT, it's 14-10 with 40 seconds left in the half, and since the Chargers have no timeouts, unless there is return weirdness, that will be your score at the half.

Russell takes Cromartie down at the 30, and you have to think the Chargers are going to sit on this here. They do, and that's that.

Chargers-Steelers Live Blogging: First Quarter

Our telecast begins with Steeler Fan showing us that they enjoy gimp masks, and lots of glorious HD snow. Nothing beats football in snow in HD, kids. Sproles takes the kickoff back to the 25 as I try to get past The Creepy.

First play from scrimmage is a throwback out to Gates, who goes for 25. Big and useful start for the road team. Sproles for no gain on a carry, but he's able to get free for 13 and a first on a nice little screen to the right. Then, Philip Rivers throws a perfect deep ball to Vincent Jackson, who wins the fistfight with Ike Taylor for the touchdown. Two minutes into the game, and the fourth road team of the weekend has a lead. OK, byes suck. Jackson draws 15 for celebrating, and it's 7-0 Chargers. Good grief.

A short and bad kick is brought back to the 40. Parker finds room and a burst for a first down. Next play is the same for less impact, but it's still positive. A third time gets the Fast One another nice little gain, and the first. Bubble screen to Ward looks good, but comes back on a hold by Holmes. Ward gets blown up on the same play, but the fact that Ben's got all kinds of time is promising. A nice ball to Miller gets back 7 yards, and from the gun on third, Ben has time against the blitz, but misses high to Holmes. From the 35, Tomlin goes for it -- fine play call, but I'd have ran it on third and made this down more manageable -- and from the gun, the Steelers get tricky with a lefty quick kick from Ben. It's ugly, but it's also downed on the 8, and the Steeler defense will try to get their bearings after the commerce.

The Chargers go three and out with two Sproles run and an incomplete, and then Santonio Holmes makes everyone who thought the Chargers would have a huge edge in punting eat their words with a knife and fork. The punt went 54, and the return went 68, with Holmes hurdling a man and bulling his way in at the close. The big play ties the game at 7 with 7:41 left in the quarter, and the reaction shot of Rivers on the sidelines is priceless, provided you don't like Rivers very much, and, well, that's most of the NFL. He's pouty!

The gimps are happy and waving towels; I think that means they like water sports. Charger Fan might have a gripe with a marginal clip call, but that coverage was just plain terrible. A spread run to Bennett goes nowhere, and Jacob Hester is flagged for a face mask to boot. A deep out to Chambers gets back the flag. On second down, Bennett goes down on first contract from a short toss. Third down needs 7 yards, and Rivers from the gun gets it to Gates, who seems a lot healthier this week. The field also seems to be in better shape than usual; more frozen than mucky.

From their 43, a false start shows the Chargers still trying to make things hard on themselves. Sproles gets back some on first, but a coverage sack by David Woodley creates third and 20 and a delay flag. Not exactly a good series of downs for the road team there, and even Simms is on the zero clock bandwagon. The safety handoff to Sproles isn't very safe at all, as Farrior nearly takes the handoff, and Scifres punts on 4th and 24. He keeps it out of bounds rather than face the power of Mewelde Moore -- interesting that Tomlin doesn't give Holmes that job again -- and the Steelers will start at the 26 after the commerce.

Parker for a yard, no real hole there. Ben pumps and goes deep with Washington falling from contact, and there's no flag on what would have been a marginal call. On third, Chargers' safety Eric Weddle comes clean and eventually wrestles Ben down for the three and out. Berger's punt gets a good bounce, and a clip makes it even better. The Chargers will start at their own 18.

CBS can't get enough of the Steeler Gimps. Sproles starts it with a hole and a burst, and he gets 8 yards for his first good run of the day. On second, there's a crowd in the backfield, but the dimunitive one gets out of it to move the chains. At the end of the first, it's 7-7, and once again, the bye and the home field doesn't seem to be impressing anyone. Sheesh.

NFL Picks, Wild Card Weekend: Uncomfortable Focus

The thing about Wild Card Weekend is that it's the first time since, well, last February that the games (a) mean everything, and (b) can't be avoided. If one of these games is a dog, you're stuck with it, for three-plus hours, until the next one comes around. There's pressure on top of pressure, and this is, along with the fact that there are some questionable teams at this stage still in the mix, why the weekend never delivers four quality games.

This year, we've got added weirdness to the mix, as all of the road teams started out favored, given the seeming weakness of the West teams. But you can make a case for any club at this point, and the spread show it; they are all four points or less, and should be. Given the way this year has gone, with no team dominant or even similar from month to month, and more commitment than that would just be foolhardy.

It all makes a fellow a bit gun shy about going to the sportsbook, but only for a little while, because dammit, it's not *that* hard. Besides, staying away from the action now is just kind of impossible, really: the perfect 11-0 run, after all, means that you can stop picking games for the rest of your life, since you'll have walked away on top.

And with that... on the FREE NFL Picks! (Lines provided by BetUs.com.)

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ATLANTA (-2.5) at Arizona

Two teams that weren't in the playoffs last year, and historically, two of the weaker franchises in the league. It's Arizona's first home playoff game ever, and the franchise's first since the 1940s. That's hard to do, folks.

The case for Arizona: They've got the home field. Kurt Warner has owned the Falcons in his career. They could be pulling off a marvelous hustle here, having more or less coasted for weeks. They're facing a rookie quarterback and a team that's struggled on defense recently; the Falcons really did stagger to the line when it came to stopping people. On a grass field, the Falcons' game of giving it to Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood might not be as strong.

The case against: They might be the worst division winner in NFL history. They had the majority of their wins over teams in their division; against good teams, they trailed by a lot early. Warner under pressure is a turnover machine. Unless you believe in the late-season renaissance of Edge James, they can't run the ball. The home crowd isn't really going to be that potent, since no one in Arizona is actually from Arizona, and they don't believe in this team after the last six weeks of suck. If they don't get to the quarterback, they give up huge plays, because the secondary is prone to big mistakes in coverage.

The case for Atlanta: They could have easily been the #2 seed, and survived the best division in football to get the wildcard. Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has been absolutely unflappable, and can also make plays with his feet. They've had big road wins before, and the running backs have honestly been the best 1-2 bunch in the league -- and yes, that includes the Minnesota backs. They just don't make mistakes, come out flat, or just seem weak in any way.

The case against: They're very inexperienced -- unless you count Turner's bench-warming days in San Diego, none of the principals has been under these lights before. The Cardinals could throw a big number up on offense and put the Falcons off their ground control game. They might be just happy to be here, or get caught underestimating the opponent.

The decision: Too much on the line here to hope for the Falcons to make tactical errors. The Cardinals will make this a game for a while, but they just have to play too well to make up for their faults.

Falcons 31, Cardinals 27

INDIANAPOLIS (pick em) at San Diego

Two of the hottest teams in football here, with the Colts coming in with a massive winning streak, and the Chargers coming in as the first team ever to make the playoffs after sitting at 4-8. Adding intrigue is the health status of LaDanian Tomlinson, who looked like his old self last week in the clincher against Denver, then left early.

The case for Indianapolis: Betting against Peyton Manning against a suspect secondary, with a team that struggles to get heat on the quarterback, is downright dangerous. Dallas Clark has been on fire for the Colts, and Dominic Rhodes has more than picked up the slack for the banged-up Joseph Addai. Marvin Harrison isn't very good anymore, but between him and Anthony Gonzalez, there's more than enough to make teams pay for overplaying Reggie Wayne. The defense has been as good as during the Super Bowl run, and Dwight Freeney is primed for a big game.

The case against: They've been more lucky than good, for the most part, with Houdini acts for their best wins. They spent the first half of the year getting by in the skin of their teeth, and the second half of the year playing tomato cans. Addai not being right makes them very susceptible to becoming a one-dimensional offensive team, and a patient team can move the ball on the Cover 2. They're on the road on grass, against a team that knows them well and has had some success over the years. Their historic weakness of special teams is a real issue here.

The case for San Diego: They're playing with house money at this point, given the Denver collapse; you aren't going to get more "No One Believed In Us!" motivation than they'll have this week. If Tomlinson is healthy -- and there's more than a reasonable chance that he is, since he left the Bronco game when it was more or less in hand -- that means a lot. Darren Sproles is a devastating weapon here, and the Colts don't really have a good matchup for Antonio Gates, let alone the rest of the Chargers big wideouts. They have a major advantage in special teams in this game, and could get a touchdown out of the return game.

The case against: They are an 8-8 team despite playing in a terrible division; if Kansas City had been able to cover an onside kick, their season would have ended weeks ago. Their coach is Norv Turner. Their homefield advantage has always been a little suspect, given how nice San Diego is; it's not as if people are intimidated to go play in that weather. The game could easily come down to Phil Rivers having to win it for them, and regardless of his stats for this year, that's not a comfortable situation, given the length of time that some of his rainbows stay in the air.

The decision: Probably the best game of the weekend, and the loss of a day to get Tomlinson healthy could prove telling. I don't think either of these teams are going to go far in the playoffs -- the Colts just aren't as good as their reputation -- but unless Sproles makes five big plays, I don't see the Chargers getting enough to keep Manning out.

Colts 31, Chargers 24

Baltimore at MIAMI (+3.5)

Probably the most physical game of the weekend here, with the Ravens coming in as the road favorite against a Dolphins team that made a historic turnaround from last year's 1-15 debacle. Both clubs come in from de facto playoff games, with the Ravens taking the Jaguars apart at home, while the Jets ended the Favre Era (one can but hope) in New York.

The case for Baltimore: Probably the best defense outside of Pittsburgh with all-everything safety Ed Reed as the true leader of the squad. A surprisingly potent offense by Ravens standards, with lots of good gimmickry, the strong arm of rookie QB Joe Flacco, an amazing last hurrah year from WR Derrick Mason, and a potent running game led by LaRon McClain. They've absolutely taken apart one-dimensional offensive teams this year, and given the arm strength of Chad Pennington, that could easily describe their opponent.

The case against: Both the coach and the QB are making their playoff debut. They've been surprisingly deficient against the running game on defense to patient teams this year. The defense is very prone to giving the ball back to you with laterals and weirdness on turnovers. They keep giving the ball to Willis McGahee, who's quietly terrible. Mason is the only consistent wideout, and he's played most of the last month with only one arm. If they have to keep Todd Heap in to block, they have no deep middle threat, and Heap doesn't block very well anyway. Special teams are ordinary.

The case for Miami: At home and expertly coached. They led the league in limiting turnovers this year despite running a lot of wildcat wackiness. Surprisingly deep wideout core, with home run hitter Ted Ginn Jr. providing a lot of utility, and tight end Anthony Fasano might be the most underrated player in the NFL. The running backs (Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams) can do a lot, and they'll stay with a running game even if it doesn't work right away. The defense has been opportunistic and reasonably resilient; it doesn't hurt that the offense rarely, if ever, puts them in a very bad spot. A home team has to win this weekend.

The case against: As you might expect from a team that's one year away from being 1-15 and starts Chad Pennington, this might be the least physically talented team in the post-season. The running game can be stopped, as neither guy really has breathtaking speed or moves at this point in their careers. Home field in warmth, as mentioned before, isn't nearly as imposing as a cold weather game... so maybe this isn't the home team to win.

The decision: Baltimore has absolutely feasted on non-playoff teams this year, and struggled mightily against teams that took care of the ball. I think Flacco struggles here, and the Dolphins ride the home crowd and better preparation to a mild upset. But whoever wins this game is going down next week anyway, so it's really not that big of a deal.

Dolphins 20, Ravens 16

PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) at Minnesota

The Eagles enter this game with that handy "the team that no one wants to face!" label -- and by the way, that almost never works out well -- given their lucky suck-out and utter de-pantsing of the quit-tastic Cowboys in Week 17. The Vikings won the division with a last-second long field goal against the Giant irregulars, earning them the NFC North division crown. It's also a fight between former Eagle offensive coordinator Brad Childress against his old mentor.

The case for Philadelphia: Closed the season with a rush, and with the defense playing its best ball of the year, particularly in run defense. Play-calling has been almost sane with its number of running plays in the last month. Correll Buckhalter has mde enough big plays that he might actually touch the ball this week. The Eagles are 4-0 against Minnesota in this century, with a playoff win in January 2005. They generally cause exceptional misery for inexperienced and shaky quarterbacks, and catch the Vikings down one Williams on the defensive line, which means they might actually have success running the ball.

The case against: Historically, they have been hurt by good running offenses in big games, and they are facing the most physically gifted running back in the NFL. Special teams has slipped in the second half, with punt returner DeSean Jackson looking a little run down, and punter Sav Rocca having several bad games. They struggle against active pass-catching tight ends, which describes the Vikings this year. Clock management, replay challenges, and just about everything that comes up in losing a close game is a problem. They are a road team in a loud dome, and might be the most inconsistent team in recent NFL history. If they could lose to Cincy and Washington, they can lose to the Vikings. Hell, they could lose to Temple.

The case for Minnesota: Dominant running game, with Adrian Peterson capable of 200+ yard games and Chester Taylor providing a very good change of pace. Bernard Berrian gives them a deep threat that only needs a throw or two to get the game-changing play they need. Tavaris Jackson can make people miss in space, and the game might be tight enough where that comes into big play. Defensively, they can force turnovers and feed on the crowd. Special teams might be an edge.

The case against: Jackson might be the absolute prototype of the NFL QB that struggles against a Jim Johnson defense; if he could more or less devastate Michael Vick with money on the table a few years ago, he should definitely be able to dial up something that Jackson can't deal with. If the Eagles bring their good running game defense, keeping drives going could become a real issue, and the defense is not built for winning the game without also winning time of possession.

The decision: Honestly, with the Eagles, you're out of your mind to try to pick the games; it's an absolute coin flip as to whether they'll show up and play well. If they do, they'll win. Historically, Andy Reid does well in early round playoff games, and Brad Childress inspires even less confidence than Reid in this situation. Besides, by winning this game, the Fatman more or less ensures that he'll have the coach and GM jobs next year as well, no matter how much they crap the bed in the second round. (And oh, yes, the crapping of the bed in the second round will not be for the faint of heart.)

Eagles 24, Vikings 17

Last week: 11-5

Year to date: 133-112-7

Potpurri for Five

In reviewing my fellow members of Blogfrica this morning, these small points that don't add up to a full bite. Consider it your continental breakfast of FTT, and the continent is Antartica, given that continental seems to mean "prepared without heat."

> "I can still hit if somebody wants me." - Mark McGwire, on the tenth anniversary of the greatest baseball moment of the Steroid Era that no one will admit to still remembering fondly

Um, Mac? To the great majority of the populace, thanks to your love of the junk, you could now never hit. No one wants to remember what you were like as a player, the good times in Oakland early on when you and fellow pariah Jose Canseco ruled MLB like a merry fraternity, or the later years in St. Louis where Tony LaRussa rode you back to Genius Status.

When players in the future pass you on the all-time home run list, there won't be a loving montage to your memory. Instead, they'll mention it in passing and with shame, and move on to the umbrella promotion in the upcoming 3-game homestand.

Oh, and in your last year in 2001, you hit .187, albeit with 29 home runs. I'm thinking that in your current condition, you'd be fortunate to get half of either number, and that's assuming you can pass the drug tests and fit in a uniform.

So, um, yes, you can technically still hit... only less good then, say, Cecil Fielder, Fred McGriff or Bob Horner. You know, like other guys who are not going to get jobs in MLB. (And about a tenth as well as Barry Bonds, who will also never play in MLB again.)

> Shawne Merriman to undergo surgery and go on IR

Wait, wait, wait... shouldn't he get five or six more opinions first?

Oh, and in further news, it takes two working knees to play well in the NFL, even if you are extremely talented. (Merriman had two more tackles than a dead man in the Sunday loss to Carolina, neither of which prompted a spasmodic dance routine, otherwise known as a sack.)

In related news, the bigger issue is that the Chargers were also without MLB Stephen Cooper, who led them with 179 tackles last year, for (drum roll please) testing positive for a banned stimulant. He'll miss the first four games of the season, and become another player in the list of Charger defenders who have missed time over banned substances. In Cooper's absence, the Panthers controlled the game with over 100 yards of rushing in the first half, and outgained the home team en route to their win.

Is anyone else noticing a pattern here in SoCal? And to be completely fair, if that pattern existed for one of the historically hated teams in the NFL (i.e., Patriots, Cowboys, Raiders, etc.), wouldn't their PR suffer more than those happy go lucky Lightnin' Bolts?

> Tampa beats Jon Papelbon in Boston to keep their lead in the AL East

That gives the previously struggling young club a game and a half lead in the division race. Unfortunately for all of us who dream of a Fox Armageddon Non-Major Market MLB Playoff, the Sawx still have a six game lead over Minnesota, a 7-game lead over Toronto (who knew?), and an 8.5 game lead over the Yankees for the wild card.

So your AL playoffs are shaping up as Boston vs. Anaheim in the first round (possible revenge for the Angels, though I think they'll lose yet again to Boston), and the Central survivor (the White Sox or Minnesota) vs. the Rays. There are still 20 games to go in the season, but you'd be surprised how often a game and a half lead will hold up with that much time to go.

By run differential, the Sawx are clearly the best team in the AL... but that's not how you play the games, and other than Jon Lester, there isn't a Boston SP that really looks like a playoff hammer this year. Yes, Dice-K Matsuzaka wins a lot of games, but his WHIP is very high (1.36) for a top tier pitcher, and his playoff history is not good.

After that, you've got a mix of the questionable (Paul Byrd, Bartolo Colon, Tim Wakefield) and the overrated (Josh Beckett, currently sporting a 5.56 ERA). If Dustin Pedroia wasn't giving them a ridiculous year, the offense wouldn't be all that scary either; Mike Lowell reverting to his career norms and David Ortiz's injury woes are making them pretty ordinary. A first round exit is not out of the realm of possibility, especially now that New England Fan is convinced that God has turned his back on the region in the wake of the Greatest Tragedy in Sports History, aka the Brady Injury.

> Vince Young is hurt, and also might be insane

After being diagnosed with a knee problem that will keep him out for up to a month, Young was unaccounted for over four hours. Depending on who you believe, he was also driving around with a loaded gun and thoughts of suicide, and talked about retiring in preseason.

Now, some very large chunk of me wonders, as I always do when the player getting the remarkably bad publicity is a minority member, if some of this is overblown. Lord knows that in my town of Philly, there are people with irrational hatred towards Donovan McNabb, aka the best quarterback in franchise history, for reasons that make a fellow go hmm. It's also not as if Nashville is the hotbed of tolerance.

But I suspect there's more smoke than racism here. Remember, Young's Wunderlic score in the combine got leaked, and it was remarkably low for a quarterback (though extremely good for a houseplant). He was clearly the worst quarterback to get snaps for the Titans last year, and when you consider that the other guy getting time was Kerry Collins, that's saying something. His decision making was questionable at best, and he only really looks comfortable when the game goes into sandlot scramble mode. He may be mobile, relatively fearless and gutty -- heck, for all I know, he might still turn into Steve McNair, which was clearly the plan here all along -- but it's also quite possible that he'll be a head case flameout.

Ed Note and update... Young's mom (!) says he isn't interested in playing football any more, and even if he changes his mind or the report isn't true, I'm not sure how you come back from that. The Titans have signed Chris Simms to back up Kerry Collins, and the scary thing is, their QB situation might be better right now. Let's just say that I'm not very concerned with the Titans making it back to the playoffs this year...

> An assistant high school coach in CA doesn't react well to a coaching change (H/t, With Leather)

Startlingly, they caught the guy. (For non-clickers, he was a 34-year-old assistant who responded to a termination by trying to burn the school down. That'll show 'em! That'll show 'em all!)

And that brings us up to today's main FTT sponsor. This forehead smacking moment is brought to you by Swingline Staplers, who remind you that when you take someone's Swingline, you may be burned to death!



Remember, for the stapler that men go to prison for, it's Swingline!

NFL Wrap Up, Week 1

Great googly moogly, has there ever been a greater shift of power in the first week of the season? Let's review everything we no longer know about the league.

(I'm also going to ignore the MNF games for now, and hopefully later, in that the Raiders will be involved. Let's just move on.)

> After the Brady injury, the Patriots are no longer the favorite to win the AFC East, let alone the Super Bowl.

Will they miss the playoffs without Dreamboat Brady? They shouldn't; they still have great wideouts, a reasonable line, some good running backs, an above average defensive line, good special teams, a ruthless coaching staff and, most importantly, a kitten-soft schedule. Matt Cassel can win games against bad teams. More than that, not so much.

> The teams that everyone thought were the challengers to the Patriots' throne -- the Colts, Chargers and Jaguars -- all lost, and mostly looked terrible in the process.

The Chargers gagged up a home game against a Panthers team that most people thought was a .500 club, and didn't even have the terminally stupid Steve Smith. Don't be fooled by the last-second play; the Panthers were the better team today, especially in the first half.

The Colts were simply punched in the mouth repeatedly by the Chicago Bears, and looked like the old-time finesse team that could be run on with impunity. There was also a huge mistake from Marvin Harrison opening the floodgates to a shocking loss, and Peyton Manning looked rusty and immobile.

The Jaguars lost to a Titans team that got more yards out of the running back than the quarterback, with mistake-free David Garrard turning it over three times. The division is too tough to lose manageable games, especially if you're entertaining dreams of a Super Bowl run.

Add it up, and if you're a Steelers fan, you're probably dancing in the streets right now. It's all breaking your way.

> The Browns look to be a 6 win team. At best. It's no shame to lose to a team with as much talent as the Cowboys, but when you were never really in it for your home opener, that's a whole 'nother kettle of suck. They can't defend the pass and got brutalized in the pits, and some good skill players on offense aren't going to paper over that.

> The best division in football is now the NFC East. You've got the defending champion, doing exactly what they've done during the stretch run last year. The Cowboys gave Tony Romo so much time against the Browns, he looked bored. The Eagles took out the Rams in the easiest opening game victory in the history of the franchise, in a game that's probably going to annoy the coaching staff, in that if will leave them very little to work to improve. Only the Skins look bad, and yes, they are very bad.

> I'd say something about the Jets, but the rest of the world will do that to death. Let's just leave it at the idea that my frequent picks of Jericho Cotchery (2 leagues) and Thomas Jones (2 leagues) don't look so bad today.

> Oh, and let's just call a spade a spade here... if Brady really is done for the year, his decision to walk off the field rather than take the cart, is not a moment of bravery or honor or courage. It's a defiantly selfish act from a player who cared more for his reputation than his team... because if the knee really is done, his responsibility is to get well. Period. Not stalk off the field through the pain and be muy macho.

Epic Drop: Top 10 Reasons Why Shawne Merriman Is Going To Play With Torn Ligaments

Here's the link that will make you think... that someone in Shawne Merriman's life needs to get him to breathe a towel or six of ether and get cut on before the big idiot wakes the hell up.

In researching this piece, I checked out Merriman's web site, which is as Extremely Manly as you might imagine. Guess what? It doesn't mention his wife or kids, and I couldn't find anything on the Web confirming or denying the existence of anyone taking up dependent status on his 1040. There does seem to be some women in his past, but nothing too serious.

Say what you will about the effect that a wife and kids might have on a man's liveliness, but I guarantee you that if there were an equal partner in the future Merriman earning potential, there would be no way in hell that he wouldn't already be under the knife. Good luck, Charger Fan (and anyone that already drafted the Chargers as their defense in a fantasy league...)

Patriots-Chargers Quasi Live Blog: Fourth Quarter

Welker again with the catch for 10 and a first on a quick screen. Maroney for 20, and he's just killing the Chargers right now. 80 for the game, 64 in the half. A screen to him gets another 9... and as the Patriots get close, the power goes out in my Man Space, probably due to a space heater overloading the circuit. Cablevision's box hates it when the power goes out, so I'm going to be down for a while. Gah!

I switch over to a Web app to learn that Brady hit Welker for 6 and the touchdown, and there's that slot problem we mentioned before. Welker now has 7 catches for 56 and the touchdown, and Faulk's got 5 for 50. Stallworth and Moss have combined for 2 for 23, but that is the real magic of Brady; he doesn't much care who's open.

Sproles to the 21, and the Chargers are going no huddle. Chambers for 17 is followed by two incompletes, and then another 18 yards to Jackson. Say this for Rivers, he's not going down without a fight. Gates for 9, then Turner for the first, and they are just entering the part of the field where it all goes to hell. The power comes back up to see another incomplete, and on 3rd and 10, Harrison comes clear yet again, forcing the incomplete. Will Norv go on fourth and 10? No, he's punting with 9:21 left and down 9 points. But on the plus side, this will help that New England covering the spread bet...

Maroney jogs around end for an easy 10. He's got 81 yards this half. Brady takes a bad sack, and that's a big play here, given how the Pats haven't been that explosive today. Faulk gets 7 on a screen, setting up a huge play for whether or not the fourth quarter will have any drama. Halfway through the quarter, and under pressure, Brady finds Faulk perfectly (of course) for just enough (of course). They needed 11, and got exactly that. Short of a turnover, it's hard to see how the Chargers get the ball back twice to come back in this game now.

Maroney for a yard, and the Chargers call an unconscionable timeout. Seriously, it wasn't at the end of the previous run, it wasn't in a dire situation, it saved them very little clock. Just awful.

Surprisingly, the Pats throw on second, and Stallworth is knocked out of bounds after 6. If the Chargers can hold on 3rd, there will be some plays left in this game... but it's Faulk Again, and this one's over. The Patriots Fans don't so much applaud now as they do exhale. And order the car to be brought around. They'll be drinking the good chianti tonight!

Maroney for 2, Maroney for 5, and would it kill you bums to cover the spread? Chargers call their last time out, and CBS dwells on Tomlinson, like he would have made the difference today. Frankly, folks, the real problem injury today was Gates, because without him, the Chargers were not able to be effective in the red zone, and that's where this game was lost. Maroney for another 6, and he loses his footing before he can secure the cover. Terrible!

Maroney becomes the first Patriot to have consecutive 100-yard playoff games since the immortal Craig James. Do you miss when the Patriots could lose playoff games in desultory fashion? I refuse to admit it in either way. The two minute warning is here, and the only people watching this game intently now have to have money on the point spread. Maroney gets the first and we're into kneeldowns. Maroney ends his day with 25 carries for 122 yards, and on a day when Brady got picked 3 times, he was the clear difference.

See you in a few for the New Age Ice Bowl in Wisconsin...

Patriots-Chargers Quasi Live Blog: Third Quarter

The Chargers outgained the Patriots by 70+ yards in the first, and won time of possession. Meanwhile, Bill Cowher and Sterling Sharpe called for Volek instead of Rivers. You have to wonder if they were told to say that for controversy, because there's no way that Norv will throw his QB for future years under the bus like that.

Curiously, Maroney takes the kickoff for the Patriots to start. He gets it to the 39 on another short Kaeding kick. Moss drops an easy ball on first, and the CBS commentators are actively talking about The Distraction. Hmm. Me, I'm wondering when his past history of playoff no-shows gets mentioned. Welker for another easy 9 yarder on second down. Evans converts another third down, and the Pats are in Charger territory. Maroney gets a yard, then Brady takes his first sack of the day on coverage, but it's a minimal loss. On 3rd and 12, Brady gets picked on a tip ball to Drayton Florence, and the Chargers have the ball in Patriots territory. Not a good decision by Brady. Wow.

Turner for 4 to the Patriots 45. Rivers on play action has Jackson wide, wide, wide open. Chargers to the Patriots 28. Play action on the next play is a throw-away, and Rivers really looks bad when he has to run. Chambers makes a ballet move to get them another first, and you can't say too much about how much better he's been in the playoffs, really. Jackson in the flat spins for 6. The wideouts are 11 for 148. Turner for 3, and it's 3rd and 1 from the 5. Very big call here, especially as a stop would be yet another red zone miss.. and Rivers calls time again in this situation. Ouch... and then they wuss out and run Turner to the left, and Seau makes the play for a loss. Kaeding hits again, and it's 14-12, Patriots.

CBS finds Subdued Girl Patriots Fan in the stands. Buck up, girl! Your team is winning!

Kaeding's best kick of the day gets to the 10; Maroney brings it to 33. Seriously, can't Scifres do this? Maroney goes for 18, and I'll say it again -- if the Patriots are going to make plays in the running game, the Chargers can not win. After a timeout, it's Maroney again, breaking a number of tackles but then falling for no gain. Luis Castillo is a beast. A pump fake by Brady who then goes to Moss for 15, who was wide open on the play. Maroney for another 11, and he's been their best player today; no wonder the game is close. He gets another 6, and they're in the red zone. A three tight end formation gets him another 4 and the first. They stay on the ground for nothing on first, and one suspects that Brady will have to pass this in.. and he gets it to Welker at the 2. Can the Chargers get a pass rush? No, but Antonio Cromartie makes a great pick. He mistakingly takes it out of the end zone, and the Chargers will start with bad field position, but still -- that's Brady's third pick of the day, and that's also the Chargers becoming +2 in turnovers for the day. Just what I, um, predicted they'd need... when I took the Patriots and the over.

Turner for 12 on first down, and so much for any Patriot safety hopes. He goes again for 3. On 2nd and 7 from the 19, Rivers misses Gates while on the run, and the Patriots brought pressure. Interesting; one suspects that pressure on Rivers will create good things for the home team. On 3rd and 7, Rivers short arms Manumaleuma from a Harrison blitz, and Scifres is in to punt. He gets it to the Patriot 32 with a bounce, and we're halfway through the third, with the over bet on life support.

Brady to Evans for 14 and a first. CBS notes that the Cromartie pick was the first for Brady in the last 215 red zone attempts; good grief. 62 touchdowns on the other side of that ledger. One suspects that average QBs are in the 2 or 3 to 1 ratio in that part of the field, because a lot of red zone picks is how you lose your job, but still. The quarter ends with the Patriots up by 2, 14-12, in a game that no one predicted.

Patriots-Chargers Quasi Live Blog: Second Quarter

The quarter starts with Maroney converting on 3rd and 1 on a very nice bit of patience; then Brady hits Faulk in the flat, who gets it to the 1. The Patriots are a yard away from wiping away a flat first quarter, and Maroney gets it. Evans with the key block, and what was telling about that last bit of business is that after losing the wind, the Patriots got plays from their running game. The Chargers can't win if the Patriots are getting plays from their running game. 7-3, Patriots.

Sproles has another seam on the return, but is taken down by Gostkowski. LDT still on the sidelines, and the Chargers start from their 30.

Play action to Jackson for 15, probably Rivers' best pass of the day. LDT is said to be down on the decision of Norv; ballsy if true. An ugly quail to Jackson gets another 17, and he was wide open; first time Rivers went on a designed rollout. Turner gets 4, and he's now at 7 for 30. Rivers wiggles about and finds Turner for 5, and they are at the Patriots 31 for 3rd and 1. They go play action and find Jackson again for 21, and this is a heck of an answer, though not exactly the grind it out method you'd expect or want, given the Patriots offense. Turner gets a yard. The Patriots only rush 2, Nantz mistakingly calls it great protection, and Bruschi knocks a bad ball to Gates down. Huge play here... and Rivers calls time. If all you get from two trips to the red zone against the champions is two field goal opportunities, you have to think that's going to be regretted later. Rivers finds Chambers on an underneath crossing route, but he can't beat the tackler, and it's another short figgie, this one from 23. Much better kick, and it's Patriots 7, Chargers 6.

Another short kick from Kaeding is returned by Hobbs to the Patriots 40. If the Chargers really want to win this game, a stand by the defense would help loads. Faulk for 13, and Brady's looking extremely comfortable now. Maroney gets 5 on a play that could have been stopped at 2, and that's what we'd call Telling. Welker takes a tricky screen for a couple, and it's also interesting that the Pats feel it's necessary to go for trickery. 3rd and 3 is a big play... and Jammer knocks down a ball for Moss, who doesn't have a catch today. Also tellingly, the Pats will punt; more often than not in this situation, they'd go for it. It seems to pay off, as Kelley Washington makes a great play in special teams. The Chargers will start at their own 4.

Turner for 4. He's earning himself some money today. He gets another 3 in a middle pile, and is now at 10 for 38. Big play here on third and 3 with 6 minutes left in the quarter... and the Chargers go 4 wide, with Rivers finding Sproles on a nice play in the flat. That was big. Rivers is now 10 of 17 for 105, and just as I was about to write how he was avoiding the big mistake... he throws while falling on pressure from Vrabel, and Samuel outfights Chambers for the interception. Bad play by Chambers as well. The Patriots will start on the Chargers 24, and this is not looking good for the wishes of a competitive game.

Faulk again for 11. Brady then finds Gaffney for an easy touchdown, and after 26 minutes where the road team has done a lot of what they wanted to do, they'll be down by 8. Patriots 14, Chargers 6.

Sproles to the 28, and if the Chargers can get points with this drive, it's still a game; if they can't or turn it over, it won't be. Sproles for no gain, and I think I'd have gone play action there, to show Phillip some confidence and given him more time. Play action on second is 15 to Chambers and a nice play; Chambers has 5 for 58 already, and Phillip seems to be focused on him. The Chargers pick up a stunt and Chambers is open, but the ball is badly underthrown for the second pick of the day, and Simms is making excuses as to the knee. Um, if that's the case, why is he trying to throw the 40 yard ball in the first place, and shouldn't the fact that he was downwind means that an underthrow is really, really bad? That's the kind of ball that might bring in Volek. The Patriots start at their 23 with all three timeouts.

Jammer knocks a ball to Stallworth down, and that could have been a pick, too. The wind must really be messing with the QBS today. Faulk makes yet another play on a run for 8 where he could have gone down for no gain. Two minute warning, and a very big play again here... and for the second time this half, Brady misses Welker. That Achilles' heel slot didn't kill them here. Sproles gets it back to the 35, and the Chargers have 1:45 and 2 timeouts. Heckuva three and out there by the defense.

Draw to Sproles for 6; too much clock running here, as is per usual with the Patriots opponents. Sproles on another draw breaks one all the way to the Patriots 32, and is ruled down before the fumble. A pointless booth review stops the clock at 49 seconds left. The Chargers don't seem to know that the clock runs after the review fails, and they waste 15 seconds before completing a ball to Gates, his first catch of the day, for 8. Gates looked good on that play. On 2nd and 2 with 26 seconds left from the Patriots 23, it's Sproles for a yard and in bounds, wasting the third and final Chargers time out of the half. What is it with the Patriots opponent having no idea how to handle a clock?

If I'm Norv here, this ball's going to the end zone, but he's played it conservative all day. That might have been the plan, and Rivers throws it away under pressure. Kaeding has to hit his first tough kick of the day, and he's only at .500 for his career in the playoffs. Belichick ices him at 12 seconds left in the half, but he sneaks it in anyway, and we'll have a one possession game at the half.

Well, it's not a blowout, and the Chargers secondary has done a great job with Moss and Stallworth. But not getting touchdowns in the red zone will get you killed, and Brady has the patience to beat you with Kevin Faulk and Jabbar Gaffney, if you make him. 14-9, Patriots.

Patriots-Chargers Quasi Live Blog: First Quarter

In the pre-game, we learn the following...

1) Philip Rivers is feisty! Funny, I was thinking another word. And so were the fans of the other 31 NFL teams... and more importantly, he doesn't look good in warm-ups. We're looking at Volek, methinks.

2) It's clear and cold in Massachusetts today, with significant wind. Short of somehow not being cold, this has to favor the Chargers a bit. Maybe they lose by just three touchdowns, instead of five...

3) The guys in the pre-game show are having such a good time, it's infectious! Like, say, e-coli.

Sproles has a seam but not much more, and the Chargers start at the 25... with QB Phillip. LDT gets 3 on a reasonable looking first down run. Crowd seems somewhat into it, and LDT goes up the gut for 2 more. The first big play of the day has Phillip in the shotgun, and he's got a clean pocket and bad execution on a cross-field screen to Sproles. 3 and out and flush; after the Scifres punt, its Welker to the 50, but a late hit on the punter makes it 4th and inches. A ballsy move would be to go for it here, but with your QB balky, a sneak won't be easy... and Norv is going conservative. The re-punt gains them about 24 yards, but it's hard to see how you beat the champs by playing this tight.

Can the Chargers answer? Pats come out 4 wide and Brady misses an open man by a lot; perhaps the wind took that one up a lot. Maroney gets two and a hard hit, and Antonio Gates is running off the field. Hoo boy. 3rd and 8, and all year, this is where the Pats have killed teams... and not quite today, as Brady is bothered by pressure and throws it away. On the replay, Stallworth was open; a mistake by Brady to not get it to him. The punt goes out of bounds with a moment of trepidation, and we're into the first ad break of the day. Score one for Norv to stay conservative, and it looks like neither offense is comfortable in the elements yet.

LDT with a jacket on, watching Turner. Hmm. Rivers throws a timing duck to Chambers for our first first down of the game. Turner slithers for 5, and the Chargers are at midfield. Gates is back on the sideline, and Rivers has time to find Chambers for another first. This is going well for the visitors so far, but they've got to keep it going. On play action, Rivers shot puts it to Jackson, but Samuel knocks it away; bad throw and timing, but again, the QB had time. Gates back in, and a screen to LDT only gets 2. Big third down here... and the Pats bring Harrison, who celebrates after the incompletion by tapping LDT on the helmet. What a nice fellow. After the Scifres punt, the Pats will start at their own 10.

Maroney goes sideway and loses yardage; if the Pats can't run today and the wind keeps up, that's just about perfect for the visitors. On 2nd, Brady has 5 wide and finds Welker for his first completion and the Pats first first down. This is the Achilles' heel that the Chargers really had to be concerned about today. In pressure, Brady misses long, but the home team is going to get Jammer for five yards on a marginal call that Welker cried successfuly for. Maroney gets nothing again, and you start to hear some uneasiness and booing from the crowd. Curious. A quick out to Watson gets 8, and it's another opportunity for the Chargers to get off the ball, but one suspects they'll need a sack to do it. On a LB blitz, Brady misses again, and the Pats will punt. Sproles brings it back to the 40, we're halfway through the first, and the under is looking good.

Georgia Frontiere is shown in memoriam. Um, ok then. I'm sure her husband is happy to see her. And yes, there's nastiness behind that.

Turner for a very nice run through tackles for first, followed up by another 4, and the Chargers are in Patriot territory. Natives are restless, too. Rivers throws a terrible ball, missing Jackson on an out. Another third down where the Chargers could start thinking about points if they convert... and Rivers takes a Seau sack where even the holding penalty couldn't keep the QB clean. After the initial rush, Rivers looked like he was just looking to fall. Scifres' punt goes to the end zone, and the Patriots will start at their 20.

Have the Patriots been stopped on three straight offensive series this year? I'm sure it's happened, but maybe not since the Ravens game. If it happens here, you can pretty much stick a fork in that over bet.

Jammer with a downright easy interception, the first of Brady's career in the first quarter. The booing is downright vociferous as the Chargers start on the Patriots 40. Turner goes for 5 and gets 15 more on a face mask agasint Wilfork; that puts it in the red zone. Turner gets little on the outside, and if you're rooting for the Chargers, you really have to think they need to get 7 out of this, especially with Kaeding being shaky. Chambers bails out Rivers on a contested out, and it's first and goal to the 9. Bad ball, bad decision, Chambers really stepped up. Turner for a yard. Chargers really miss a healthy Gates here... and Norv decides what he really needs here is Lo Neal in the flat, who Rivers misses. What. The. Hell. Third down, and Rivers from the shotgun, and Chambers makes an incredible effort, but can't get the feet down. Kaeding on from 26, into the wind... and he just sneaks it in. That kick might not have been good from 30. Something to keep in mind for later. Chargers 3, Patriots 0.

A short kick into the wind is returned with ugliness, and the Pats start with their best field position of the day. 2:50 left in the quarter. Brady starts with 5 wide again, and gets Welker for 9, easy as it can be. Brady is just 3 for 7 for 29 with the pick right now, and Brady airmails Moss by 10+ yards on an out. Odd. 3rd and 1, and the Pats make a nice call on a run to Heath Evans to get the first. Moss makes the first big play of the day for the Pats on a reverse where the Chargers overpursue, and the 14 yard gain puts the ball to the Charger 39. A WR screen to the always deadly Kevin Faulk gets the Patriots another 14, and the home crowd is starting to settle down. They do the same thing on the next play for 4. On 2nd and 6, it's 5 wide again and short to Stallworth for 5. The quarter ends, and it's hard to say that both teams aren't kind of flat so far.

Conference Championship Week: Suck My Chalk, Please

Giants at PACKERS - The Pack is a 7.5 point favorite, with a 40 point over / under.

It's said so often that it has to be a cliche, but that doesn't make it less true: the quarterback gets too much credit when a team wins, and too much blame when the team loses. Put that truism on steroids, HGH and a rare form of Bolivian rat extract, synthesized with an infusion of that glowing yellow-green goop that powers your average muscled supervillain... and that just starts to approximate the level of what's been happening with Eli Manning.

The Unstoppable Citizen Watch pitchman has posted the following combined statistics in the Giants two road playoff wins: 32 for 45 for 348 yards and 4 touchdowns. No picks, no fumbles.

Efficient low yardage. Low risk. In both games, his team had a first-down free quarter -- in Tampa Bay, the first, and in Dallas, the fourth. He's also taken four sacks. It's good, but if you were to ask me for a top 5 list of reasons why the Giants are still alive, Eli's sitting at #4, behind the DL, the RBs and the coaching.

And yet, since we are so wrapped up in the belief that the quarterback has to be the reason why a team wins or loses... because it so often is. And the germ of the idea creeps in, which is that he's really turned a corner, that maybe the loss of Shockey was the best thing that could have ever happened to him, and come to think of it, the way he brushed off Benedict Barber at the start of the year was pretty cool...

And only a Grinch or Giants Hater would then note that with just one more win, he finally will have reached the heights of Kerry Collins.

In both of their wins, they've had help. The Bucs had a hobbled Galloway. The Cowboys had a rusty Glenn and Owens at less than 100%. Garcia and Romo were both rattled by the Giants' pressure; Favre and the Packers, by the numbers this year, were the best in the NFC against that. And at some point, the wide-open receivers in the middle of their secondary have to cost them, just as they did against the Patriots.

Credit should also be given to the coaching staff for (finally?) accentuating what Eli does well -- a quicker than average release with good accuracy on short throws -- and limiting what he does poorly (improv and locking in on a single receiver, which leads to backbreaking picks). It's as if they finally accepted him for what he is, 40+ games into a career that didn't look like it was going anywhere pleasant. At the start of the year, most people thought the Giants were a last-place finisher in the NFC East, with somewhere between 5 and 8 wins. They've succeeded beyond their wildest hopes, and Eli, to me, has become the starter by merit instead of by heritage. I have officially retired the Fredo nickname, and Giants fans can no take him to their heart as much as they did Collins or the pre-Super Bowl winning Phil Simms.

So why am I going to the poisoned well for the third time and betting against them? Because I just don't see their ceiling as being high enough to win a game when the other team plays well, and at some point, someone's bound to do that. (People point to the Pats game in Week 17 as a big clue, but the Pats won that game as soon as they decided to blitz.)

The Giants gained a whopping 57 yards in the second half in Dallas last week, and won the game. Roll that around in your head for a little while. They are also going against a nasty history for the road team playing its third week in the NFC: this way almost always leads to a 20+ plus loss.

Against a Packers team that has a very good running game when Ryan Grant isn't putting the ball on the ground, and a defense that can make good WRs disappear... well, as the economists say, things that can't continue don't. And we're not even getting into the problem that the Giants defense is entirely dependent on getting a big pass rush, and the Packers are the best team in the NFC at getting the ball out fast.

PACKERS 27, Giants 17 -- which gives me the Packers plus the OVER.

* * * * *

Chargers at PATRIOTS -- Pats are a 14.5 point favorite with a 46.5 point over

Let's start with the good news for the road team here. Tomlinson seems likely to play, and if he can't, it's (shh) really not that big of a drop to Turner and Sproles, because both of those guys are good. The Chargers also have a potential advantage in special teams, where Mike Scifres came through huge when they needed a big punt, and both kickers were shaky last week. Chambers and Jackson have played their best two games of the season in the last two weeks. After last week's off-the-charts upset in Indy (seriously, has the defending Super Bowl champions ever lost a playoff game at home when the other team was without its three best offensive players?), they are playing with house money here. No one thinks they can win, and the Patriots haven't covered a spread in a long time. Finally, the Patriots have no home field advantage, and I don't buy the idea that it's all the field's fault. Their fans are so spoiled and delusional, they honestly think that no one has ever booed a Punt Pass and Kick contestant for wearing the wrong colors before. (Seriously, Pats Fans are hated for more than the reason that their teams are good. I'd go into the reasons why, but I only have these two hands and so many pills left on my prescription.) Finally, as perhaps the biggest underdog ever in a conference championship, maybe they'll come in with exceptional We've Been Disrespected Fuel.

Unfortunately, that's about it, and it's nowhere near enough.

The Patriots have the (vastly superior) coach. They are at home against a warm-weather California team, at night, with temperatures in the 20s to 30s. The Chargers have real problems with slot receiver coverage; the Patriots feast on that. The Chargers get almost all of their QB pressure out of two players, leaving them susceptible to good game preparation by a focused coaching opponent. They are likely to start their backup quarterback, who has arm strength and ball control issues. And they are going against what might be the best team in NFL history, with a strong edge in postseason experience. The Pats have the best offense in the history of the league. The Chargers have... Billy Volek.

Can the Chargers beat the Patriots? Yes, but it will require an astounding set of circumstances. First, Cromartie will have to make Moss disappear in solo coverage (hint: hit him early and hard), and maybe even come up with a pick or two. Merriam and Phillips will have to put Brady on the ground. The Chargers will have to be at least +2 in turnovers, and get more big plays out of special teams. Gates will have to be at nearly 100% and come up with over 100 yards. They can't fall behind by more than 10 points at any time, they have to control time of possession, they have to maintain their composure when the breaks and penalty calls go against them, and they have to finish the game on offense with their running game... and no one has managed to do that to the Patriots defense in the fourth quarter all year. That's been their secret in the close games; late, they shut the door, and their offense kicks it down.

People generally think that the way to beat this Patriots team is to simply outscore them in a shootout, but I don't think that's it. I think you have to have the ball for 40 minutes, and score slowly. Converting a surprise onside kick might help, too. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that the Chargers can do that. They're good on the lines.

Or they could just send some disposable defensive player after Brady's knees, the way that the blogosphere has been waiting / hoping / praying for since about, oh, October first.

The prevailing winds are that the Patriots are 8 to 1 favorites. In their biggest wins of the year, the Colts had no running game and made critical turnovers, and kept a so-so Titans team in the game late at home. They won a bad division, they're beat up, and it's hard to shake the feeling that bad blood and history or no, they're just kind of happy to be here. None of that -- and especially not the QB -- leads me to think this is going to be much of a game, though I do suspect the cover is going to be touch and go, because I suspect the Pats are going to get bored.

Pats 31, Chargers 16 -- which gives me the Pats plus the OVER.

Now, having said all of that.. boy, I'm just hoping the games are good. (There will also be, as I'm sure you are breathlessly awaiting, the return of the Quasi Live Blog, assuming another child doesn't combust.) Happy gambling!

Epic Drop: Top 11 NFL Storylines That Will Be Beaten Into The Ground This Week

Your link is here, and for the record, I think it's a crying shame that KanYe gets so much disrespect... but maybe it's good for the world that he does, because he's just the kind of man who feeds off that kind of thing. That would make him unique among rap artists.

And in other news, anyone who thinks we're not getting Packers-Patriots is from New York or Southern California, and they probably don't either, really.

Sundary Wrap Up

I watched the games from a hospital room, where my youngest had been admitted with a case of bronchitis. (She's more or less fine, but y'all will understand why the Quasi Live Blog didn't happen. Had other priorities and all.)

The following five points from today's Chalky Death...

1) Both Norv Turner and Tom Coughlin got away with fairly unconscionable conservative play-calling late in the game. With 2:01 left after the Chargers held on fourth, Turner called a run, despite the fact that the clock was going to stop no matter what. I understand that you were working with your backup and might want to be very safe, but a quick out was probably as safe as a run there, and gave them a much better chance at getting the first down. Instead, three runs into the middle gave the Colts back after only 20 seconds of clock ran and two timeouts were used, and extended the game for the home team. For the Giants, once again it was three runs when a first down would have ended the game in the fourth.

If either road team had blown it, the coaches would have been pilloried, so give it up for them when the play-calling with a stick up your ass works. (The Steelers' Mike Tomlin is going to see that lame QB bootleg call in his nightmares, so...)

2) People always talk about patience in the running game in the first half, but it stands to reason that you need to be patient with it in the second half, too. Marion Barber was a huge part of the Cowboys attack in the first half, and they more or less forgot about him in the fourth quarter. For a team that had worn teams out and dominated them with Barber late all year, it was curious. Of course, it's hard to play call with patience with both hands grasped tightly around your neck...

3) I watched the late game on a scrambled signal with static on the audio. Surprisingly, it actually made Fox even more irritating to deal with, and it also convinced me that I have a serious NFL problem... in that I was watching the equivalent of an '80s porn cable channel, with two teams that I more or less hate. The things I do for you people.

4) The Peyton Manning Haters will be out in force for his failure to get the go-ahead touchdown from four cracks inside the 10, and if you're going to compare him to Tom Brady, maybe you've got an argument. But from where I was watching, the two picks were both from the receivers dropping balls, and the Harrison fumble was absolutely devastating. Finally, he got about 50 yards from his running game, Addai did him no favors, and his defense couldn't get stops on a team without its top three offensive weapons. It wasn't his best day, but without Manning, the Colts lose this game by three touchdowns.

5) Finally, is there a stupider stat than the Number of Fourth Quarter Comebacks that a QB has engineered? Seriously, NFL announcers, this is like telling us that Bob Wickman was the best closer in baseball last year because he had the most saves. Show me a QB with a ton of fourth quarter comebacks, and I'll show you a guy that's played a long time on a team with a weak defense -- not necessarily the best guy to have in that situation. Percentages, please. We're allowed to be smart while still watching football.

NFL Picks, Playoff Week 2: Suck My Chalk

This is the week of the year when the favorites, historically, have an incredible advantage. On average, three out of four of them will win and advance. So whenever any of the wild-card teams break through, it's memorable, and the memorable bets are the ones that keep you coming back. It's also the far more sexy and contrary pick. When you go for the road dog in this round, you get to talk about momentum, about how some teams have such weak coaching that the extra week of preparation won't help them, and how your pick has the testicular fortitude to overcome everything. You get to play into the underdog role and amp it up.

But picking games isn't "300"; you don't get style points for losing. The road team in these games usually faces an over-the-top crowd and defensive intensity in the first quarter, and heavy legs in the fourth. It's usually too much to bear, and after last weekend where I watched the Jags fritter away an easy cover and the Bucs do everything possible for Eli Manning to be relaxed and comfortable... well, I'm not looking for more than I can bear, no way.

This weekend also separates the fans that should really be satisfied with their team's year from those that can be justified in thinking the year was lacking. If you make it to next week, you are better than 7 out of every 8 teams in the NFL, and if you could say that about every other aspect of your life and live in America, you'd be making over $150K a year, with kids that get to go to very good schools, and a host of other things to be incredibly thankful for. (On a global scale, living in the US probably qualifies as being in that 1 in 8 mindset, but that's too much Pollyanna for this hour and blog.)

In short, enough of the I Can Only Be Happy If My Team Wins Everything mindset. It only leads to bankruptcy, on every level.

And with that financial condition looming, on to the picks!

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Chargers at COLTS - Colts are an 8.5 point favorite with a 45 point over/under

On top of the usual rested home team versus tested road team, and the former was probably better anyway because they are the higher seed, is the following five factors:

1) Strength of schedule. The Colts got the #2 seed despite six games against the Jags, Titans and Texans -- three teams that were over .500, two of which made the playoffs. The Chargers had six games against the Raiders, Broncos and Chiefs. Enough said.

2) Strength of coach. Tony Dungy may not have the greatest playoff record in the world, but in general, he's gotten his team as far as they were supposed to go, and usually lost to a better coach. Norv Turner is, well, Norv Turner. At least no one can say he's choking this week, since he's the underdog.

3) Strength of QB. The Colts start a clear Hall of Famer who is playing with house money at this point, in that no one is giving him grief over Not Winning The Big One. He's also got one of the fastest releases in the game, negating most strong pass rushes, and has a coach-like ability to adjust to the defense pre-snap. The Chargers start the closest thing left in this year's playoffs to Rex Grossman.

4) Health. The Colts are likely to get back Marvin Harrison this week, and even if they don't, they've lived without him long enough to manage. The Chargers are likely to be without Antonio Gates, which means they will need a second straight week of step-up performances from Chris Chambers and Vincente Jackson... and it will also mean Bob Sanders gets to spend all his time staring down LaDanian Tomlinson. Against a Colts secondary that isn't injured or lacking, they won't get it.

5) Defenses. The Chargers have a flashy, big hitting defense that lives on turnovers and emotion -- and if they can get lucky enough with gambles and athleticism, they might just make enough plays to give their team the ball with a short field. The Colts just make all of the plays that win games consistently, from not giving up big third down conversions to stopping the run without trickery or unnecessary risk.

If you're looking for a reason to take the Chargers, you're looking at turnovers and special teams -- which is to say, freak and fluke plays. In general, I'm not a huge fan of teams that rely on winning the turnover battle to win games; in the games where the turnovers balance out to more or less even, and those are the majority of games in the NFL, it's won at the line. The Chargers didn't win the line against the Titans, at home, for a very long time, last week. Expecting them to do better in Indy isn't looking likely to me.

Indianapolis 31, Chargers 20 -- which means Colts and OVER.

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Jaguars at PATRIOTS - Pats are a 13-point favorite with a 49.5 point over

Unlike many prognosticators, I don't think the Jags need to play a perfect game to defeat the Juggernaut. The Colts, Eagles, Ravens and Giants didn't come close to playing perfect games in the Patriot close calls, and all were a handful of plays away from blemishing the perfection. (No team, really, plays a perfect game; there are always negative plays and individual battles lost, but if all of the game-changing plays go one way and the other team quits, it looks like perfection. Anyway.)

The real problem for the Jags is that, contrary to popular belief, they really aren't the kind of team that can beat New England. To wit:

1) Teams that give New England trouble on defense have exceptionally physical corners that take Moss out of the game without double-teaming him. Double-teaming Moss doesn't really work that well, since he sees it so often. But if you can clean his clock early, he loses his taste for things late. Witness the Eagles and Ravens games. The Jags don't really have that kind of secondary; their big hitters are closer to the line.

2) You have to exploit Seau and Harrison's age and slowness to keep drives alive against this team. (And to a lesser extent, Vrabel and Bruschi. Make no mistake about it, the Pats will draft LBs next year, and the Adalius Thomas signing was as big for the defense as Moss was for the offense.) The Jags don't get much from their TEs, and with the outstanding exception of MoJo, don't really have a great RB threat in the flat.

3) A month ago, the Pats didn't look like they could run the ball worth a damn, which dooms teams in the playoffs... but they've ran the ball just fine down the stretch, and you have to think that they are going to have plenty of opportunities to run, with the Jaguars having three plus receivers to worry about.

Having said all that, the Jags are physical and any team with a home-run hitter like MoJo has a puncher's chance... and there may be no weaker home field at this round in the playoffs than the very spoiled New England crowd. But it's hard to see how that translates to a win, and David Garrard playing from behind has the potential to get ugly.

New England 34, Jaguars 17 - which is Pats and OVER.

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Seahawks at PACKERS - The Pack is an 8 point favorite with a 42-point over/under

The Packers have a lot of players without playoff experience, but the Seahawks can't pull this off without Matt Hasselbeck having a great game... and the Packer corners, at least the top two, are very good. Hasselbeck might make some hay with the slot and TEs, but it's hard to get to 300 yards and 3 touchdowns that way, and I think he needs to do that for Seattle to win. (And no, he's not going to get much from his RBs. The Seahawks would be better off if Shawn Alexander retired. Today.)

For the Packers, Ryan Grant is actually the most important player for the team, since he'll keep Favre from forcing things. Also, the Seahawks secondary is susceptible, and they won't get to Favre anywhere near as much as they did Todd Collins; even if they do, Favre gets the ball out fast, and the Packers won't have as many horrible drops as the Redskins did.

It's also noteworthy that while everyone seems to have gotten off the idea that the Seahawks hadn't beaten a .500 team since Week 1, just because they survived the Skins. One week does not make a trend, and this team has been so gutless, so long, on the road... and it's just not inside my brain to imagine that Favre will lose this one, really.

Packers 27, Seahawks 13 - which is Packers and UNDER.

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Giants at COWBOYS - Cowboys are a 7.5 point favorite with a 46 point over/under

How on earth do you make sense of this Giants team? On the one hand, they've been really good for the past few weeks. On the other, they played against a Pats team that didn't blitz until they wanted to win, and a Bucs team that seemed to think that blitzing was worse then losing. For the positive, they are now 8-1 on the road this year. On the negative, the teams they beat on the road were mostly terrible. For the positive, their running backs look good now, especially Bradshaw. On the negative, their defense has given up 8 million points in two games against the Cowboys, and their safeties are very exploitable -- and you don't want bad safeties against Witten and potentially Owens.

If the Giants are hard to figure, the Cowboys are a broken Rubik's Cube. Romo's got a bad thumb and a ready-made horrible storyline from the Mexico trip. Owens is a three-ring circus of injury drama. They haven't ran the ball worth a damn in a month. They've got a pretty terrible game-day coach. Their starting safety is a 15-yard penalty waiting to happen.

And yet... Romo just makes plays. Whenever he fumbles, the ball bounces up to him a friendly dog. He's got a good home field. The Cowboys can pressure the QB a little, and will, especially with a week off. They've just owned the Giants this year, and I don't buy the idea that beating a team that you've stomped is hard three times, when you've done it twice.

Cowboys 31, Giants 21 - which is Cowboys and OVER.

Bet early and often!

The Pros and Cons of Each Team Winning The Super Bowl

New York

Pros: The victory parade would have the entertaining sidelight of watching Tiki Barber and Jeremy Shockey tarred, feathered, and dropped off at Penn Station with an off-peak Amtrak ticket to anywhere. If they win, the Coughlin and Eli Show would have to keep running for at least five more years, most of which probably won't go this well, and I really do enjoy watching Coughlin scream and whine, and Eli look sad.

Cons: More Manning Brother commercials, a Bettis-style wanking sendoff for gap-toothed asterisked sack record holder Michael Strahan, an unconscionable amount of "No one believed in us" posturing... yikes. Lets just move on.

Seattle

Pros: Their fans would finally let go of the conspiracy theories surrounding the Steelers win. There's a very real possibility of Mike Holmgren retiring to have more time with his family on the ice flow. Shawn Alexander gets to go out to stud, rather than a glue factory. Matt Hasselbeck deserves a little love for owning the "We want the ball and we're going to score" comment. Since the US enjoys ignoring Seattle, there will be no post-game coverage or dynasty hype. You think that Ravens Super Bowl win got forgotten fast? You ain't seen nothing at all!

Cons: For a host of sins against humanity and good taste, good things should not happen to Paul Allen for the rest of this lifetime, or the next dozen. Hasselbeck's wife makes Eva Longoria look demure and non-annoying. If they win, they'll have done so by suddenly discovering a spine on the road, after four months of suckering people into terrible bets. Bastards!

Green Bay

Pros: If this doesn't get Brett to retire, nothing will, and we can stop asking him when he's pulling the chute. Packer Fan's diet means that they don't have long before the next heart attack, so maybe this is their last chance. The team is mostly too young to have developed egos, personas, endorsements and irritation, and could help to end the annoying cliche of Teams Need To Have Playoff Experience Or They Will Eat Paste, Soil Themselves, And Lose.

Cons: The slobbering sound you constantly hear around Favre's jewels from media types will become absolutely deafening. Seriously, you may see sideline reporters just drop to their knees in the waning moments of the game. Like many obese drunks, Packer Fan is a lot more fun to be around when he loses. When he wins, he's sloppy and all over the place, and the women are showing you things you can't un-see.

Dallas

Pros: Julius Jones will sucker some team into a terrible free agent contract, under the little-known Dominic Rhodes Rule. The organization will be razed for personnel and coaching talent. Maybe TO's heart and brain grow three sizes, and he becomes an actual human being that day.

Cons: Where to begin? Even more commercials with Jones and Romo. A media whitewashing of the Owens Legacy that would make Mumia Abu-Jamal proud. Posthumous slobbering on Bill Parcells' knob. A great deal of out-and-out lying about Wade Philips' competence. The sudden and terrible resurrection of Cowboy Bandwagon Fan, the kudzu of NFL fans. And there will be more where that came from, but honestly, it will be Planet Owens for months.

Jacksonville

Pros: Since the Jaguars have no actual fans, as opposed to just disgruntled fantasy league gamblers and pre-literate rednecks on loan from college football, having them win is relatively painless. Fred Taylor gets known for more than his groin, or hating on Heinz Field.

Cons: It sets a bad precedent for the league when coaches with special needs win the championship. Also, would make far too many traditional Run the Ball honks far too happy, and make teams think that the road to success lies with cover-your-eyes game manager QB types.

San Diego

Pros: Gives back something to a team and community Touched By Tragedy, and shows that sports can transcend even the most awful wastes of life and property. (We are speaking, of course, about the hiring of Norv Turner.)

Cons: See Jacksonville comment. Also, a Super Bowl ring could make QB Phillip achieve new and spectacular heights of doucehbaggery. Think Rex Grossman... if he went to Duke.

Indianapolis

Pros: Like Jacksonville, you are unlikely to actually meet a Colts fan, so the psychic damage is minimal. May cause Patriots Fan's head to explode.

Cons: Back to back Colts championships may cause entire networks to switch to All-Manning Programming. Plus, this would further empower the all-encompassing ego, posturing and preening of prima donna WR Marvin Harrison.

New England

Pros: Would make Gregg Easterbrook shrivel and melt like the Wicked Witch of the West, only with slightly less testosterone. Combined with a Red Sox and Celtics championship, could speed up secession efforts by the rest of the United States. After its over, we can all enjoy the perp walk spectacle of the '73 Dolphins being rounded up into camps.

Cons: If you thought the '72 Dolphins were obnoxious, you haven't seen anything yet. You will be living with this team -- and more importantly, this fan -- for the rest of your life. Think about that; are you really ready to spend every football conversation until they put you in the ground waiting for Patriot Fan to talk about the Oh Seven Perfect Team? As the movie says, There Will Be Blood. Most likely, yours. (There are, of course, dozens of other Con reasons here, but brevity and a survival instinct intrudes.)