No pussy-footing around this time, kids. Here's your FREE NFL Pick.
PITTSBURGH (-6.5) at Arizona
For the past two weeks, people have been trying to invent reasons to be scared, very scared, of the Arizona Football Cardinals. These reasons include:
1) Any of the following Kurt Warner attributes: his playoff record, his Obama-esque puppy bet with his kids, his comeback God, and his ability to get rid of the ball quick against the blitz
2) The Steelers defense being 21st in the NFL in 2-minute drills, which is more or less what the entire Cardinals offense resembles
3) Arizona being #1 in fumble recoveries, and Big Ben and Fast Willie's tendency to put the ball on the ground
4) The uncertain status of primary WR target, gadfly and relentless chains mover Hines Ward
5) Pittsburgh mostly awful coverage units (29th against kickoffs, 31st against punts)
6) Arizona's a Team Of Destiny, and if you simply ignore the bad month of their season, they are actually a lot better than their numbers and record might indicate
7) Pittsburgh has an above-average number of drops from the receivers, which is part of that whole "offense isn't as good as it should be" thing
8) The NFL, and indeed the entire world, has been topsy-turvey cah-way-zee this year (were you aware that a black man is now the President?)
9) and last but not least, the fact that I like the Steelers.
Let's refute each factor in turn.
1) Cap'n Jebus is good at getting rid of the ball fast against a blitz... but that assumes the hot reads are open, and he can see where the blitz is coming from. Neither of these things tend to be true against the Steelers, which is why they were far and away the best defense in the NFL this year. (Also, the puppy was for *getting* to the Super Bowl. Not winning it. Bad move, Kurt.)
2) Being 21st in 2-minute defense is about the only bad stat you can find for this team. What it really means is that they aren't very good at prevent, but if you are playing prevent, you're generally winning the damn game. So, um, not too much to be scared of there.
3) Fumble recoveries are luck. Betting on luck can work, but isn't recommended.
4) Ward practiced today, and will play. If there had been no bye week, this would have helped the Cardinals immensely; you don't play Baltimore without getting very beat up.
5) Yes, indeed, but the Steelers have actually been, with the exception of a Darren Sproles long gainer, reasonably good on special teams in their two playoff games. It's a concern, but not an overwhelming one, and while Steve Breaston is a good football player, he's no Sproles in the open field.
6) Ignoring the bad month still leaves you with a team that can't run the ball, has serious coverage issues in the secondary, and struggles on defense if they don't get big play turnovers. Against a patient Steeler attack that will want to run the ball, it's not very likely.
7) Yes, sure, but Pittsburgh has been better at protecting the quarterback recently, which means Heath Miller has become a factor in the passing game. If you are looking for a long shot MVP candidate, take the TE; I could easily see him getting something like 8 catches for 80 yards and 2 TDs in this game. Arizona simply has no one to match up with him in coverage.
8) Steelers owner Dan Rooney went for Obama, which helped to lock down Pennsylvania. Arizona is the home state of John McCain. The stench of failure permeates.
9) Yeah, whatever. I also took the Steelers and laid the points in both of their playoff games. Let's put this meme to bed.
So... what we are left with is a Super Bowl that, no matter how I look at it, keeps feeling suspiciously like one of those games from the '90s, back when the Super Bowl stunk every year.
You have a power team with a dominant defense against a finesse team that scores a lot of points. Hmm.
You've got a cold-weather Eastern (well, fine, Pittsburgh is kind of Midwestern, but you get the gist) team against a non-traditional contender from the West. Heh heh.
What's to say that Pittsburgh doesn't jump out to an early lead, then bares its teeth on defense and spends several quarters making Warner look like...
Pre-Terrell Davis John Elway.
Stan Humphries. (I just made Charger Fan cry a little.)
Jim Kelly, only without the RB threat.
It's time for an old-school terrible game, folks. In this era of any team getting on a hot streak, that's the biggest upset pick I can think of.
Three games left in the NFL season, folks, and they both look dangerously easy to predict -- especially given how flat-out crazy the playoffs have been so far this year. But as wacky as the last week was, I was an obvious delay of game penalty and several ridiculously unlucky red zone turnovers away from going 3-1 last weekend, with the only missed pick being the Jake For God's Sake game in Carolina.
So as stupid as it sounds to say this... I'm actually feeling reasonably confident about this weekend's games. That's because there are two clearly better teams in each matchup, so much so that you may feel strongly compelled to visit a certain sportsbook.
And with that... on the FREE NFL Picks! (Lines provided by BetUs.com.)
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PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) at Arizona
How much do I work on these picks, folks? Enough to listen to the Bad Tooth's podcast, where he compares my hometown team to Big Pussy from "The Sopranos", has a guest advocate a BCS-style playoff to prevent us from the horror of a mediocre regular season team playing its best games late, and talks about how the NFL season is just ruined -- ruined! -- for him because, WAAAAHHHH, the Eagles beat the Giants and everything is just so random and meaningless now. (He also talks about how he can't understand why he gets hate mail. Seriously, Wee William, just go all the way and hit us with the steel chair. It'd be less obvious.)
This paragraph replaces one in which I take the Tooth's bait and recommend many anatomically unpleasant things, mostly because I think he'd enjoy them. Besides, Philly Fan is well aware of how our wins don't matter as much as other team's. And with that, let's go to another retrospective of the '87 Celtics, who were so much more dominant and meaningful than the '83 "Fo Fi Fo" Sixers. It must be nice when your teams are the World Wide Lemur's house pets. Anyway, moving on.
The single nugget of joy that I got out of that oral surgery was not worth it, but still worth sharing. Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders, a relatively dispassionate and useful purveyor of nerd stats, checked the history of teams that won playoff games after getting a big mess of turnovers, like Arizona did last week.
Teams that had five takeaways in a playoff game, in their next game, averaged... drum roll, please... two. The list also includes lots of team like, say, the Jacksonville team that ended Dan Marino with a 50+ point playoff win, who wind up losing their next game.
Can Arizona win? Of course. Are they *likely* to? No. How should you bet? On what is likely, of course. But let's go deeper.
The case for Philadelphia: The defense is playing its best football of the Reid Era. Donovan McNabb has been very accurate for the last two games. David Akers and Sav Rocca are suddenly hot. They match up *very* well with this Cardinals team, as the Thanksgiving Night Massacre showed. Asante Samuel gets to go against Larry Fitzgerald, giving the team a chance at a big play back against a guy that's just murdered the Falcons and Panthers. Brian Westbrook gets to go against a defense that isn't Minnesota or New York. Eagle Fan will be there -- having priced airfare and tickets myself in moments of weakness, you can do the trip for $1K, lock, stock and barrel -- and if they have 10% of the stadium, they could easily make a third of the noise. They are experienced in the playoffs, and unlike last week, face a team that has played the same number of games as they have.
The case against: If this is a shootout, they just aren't as explosive as the Cardinals. On some level, despite the Cardinals' wins so far in the playoff, they could still be looking past them to the Super Bowl. The Cards are a very different offense than the last two clubs that they've faced, and if receivers are as open as they were against the Giants, Warner will not miss as much as Eli did. Samuel has been battling a hip problem, and if he can't go, the defensive line will have to be fantastic. Westbrook is obviously not right, and is averaging just 1.9 yards per carry in the playoffs. Just because the team hasn't played a clunker since Washington doesn't mean that they still aren't capable of it. Reid is just 1-3 in NFC Championship Games, and 0-1 against Warner on the road.
The case for Arizona: Larry Fitzgerald is the living embodiment of amazing. The defense has been getting huge pressure and making plays. The home crowd are playoff noobs, which means that they'll cheer as if the home team is playing with house money. Warner's an experienced playoff quarterback. The running game isn't great, but it's no longer terrible, and the offense is extremely good in the red zone. Should be playing as loose as a home team can at this stage in the playoffs. The case against: It's just a terrible matchup against this defense; as their entire season has shown, they are a different and not very imposing animal when Warner is pressured, and he should be pressured in this game. There's very little chance that they will get as many takeaways again, and if they don't, the defense will give up points. The loss of tight end Steven Spach is a problem, and the much bigger problem is Anquan Boldin, who hasn't been healthy or himself for a long time. If Boldin is 100%, this offense is explosive and has a serious matchup advantage of Boldin against Sheldon Brown, but if he's not, they can be defended. Ken Whisenhunt has never been a head coach at this stage of the playoffs.
The pick: Westbrook won't get 1.9 yards per carry, folks, and the Cardinals won't enjoy a massive edge in turnovers. So long as the road team gets out of the first without being down big, I think they are going to win this game. (And thank the Cardinals on a level that's almost as much as the Raiders, since they wouldn't have enjoyed the trip to Carolina nearly as much as this one.) Eagles 31, Cardinals 20
Baltimore at PITTSBURGH (-6.5)
First things first -- this line sucks. It's at least a point to two points higher than I'd like, given how these teams couldn't have played tighter games in the regular season, and dammit, more people should be getting sucked in to the idea that the Ravens are the Six Seed of Destiny in the Apocalypse Six Seed Super Bowl. But so be it.
The big thing that you hear, in the lead-in to this game, is how hard it is for one team to beat another three times in a season. This statistic, by the way, is total horsespit. Here's how hard it is: there have been 18 cases where a team had the opportunity to go to 3-0 in the playoffs in a head to head matchup. And they won 11 of them.
Look, there's a reason why the 2-0 team wins more often then they lose; they are usually better. They almost always have home field; they also have the confidence to know that they can, and do, beat these guys. They lose some as well; it's hard to win playoff games, period. But if you are going with the Ravens just on the Third Time's The Charm gambit, you're on a pretty thin branch.
Another point about those two earlier Steeler wins: the home team wasn't as good then as they are now. So long as Willie Parker looks as good as he did against the Chargers (and no, of course he won't against Baltimore, but half of last week's output will be fine, and he'll get more than that), the Steelers are a dramatically better offense. San Diego's not a great defense by any means, but they can do some things, and last week they got absolutely steamrolled by the men from Iron City... and with Parker and Mewelde Moore getting consistent and positive running plays, that means that Big Ben's got time and space. When he's got those things, folks, there might not be a better QB in the league.
Oh, and their defense is pretty freaking good, too. Note that Joe Flacco's second game against them was a lot worse than his first, which is not exactly the trend you want to see from your rookie QB.
For the Ravens, not to put too fine a point on it, but they committed Grand Theft Football last week in Tennessee. Had the Steelers had to go on the road, it would have been a more difficult game for them, especially if the home team still had Chris Johnson. Anyway, lets go to the tape.
The case for Pittsburgh: At home, with a much more explosive and balanced offense. Have beaten this team twice before when they weren't at full strength. Have the best unit in the game with their defense. Baltimore's corners can be had, as Kerry Collins showed in racking up nearly 300 yards in passing, with a lot of that to fraud number one receiver Justin Gage; they'll have much more trouble with Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward.
The case against: Ben's playoff record is not exactly pristine; if pressured, he can make big mistakes, and the Ravens' defense lives to score. If Parker or Ben gets hurt, and both have been dinged up this year, all bets are off. LaRon McClain can wear down a defense, and Willis McGahee has made a surprising number of good plays (i.e., any) in the playoffs. If they don't get pressure on Flacco, he's got the arm to make enough big plays to swing a game. They should have a disadvantage in punting, not that this showed up last week. The Ravens won't be cowed by the home field or crowd noise, and anything can happen in a division game like this one. (And if you don't believe me, go talk to the Giants. Assuming they aren't busy trashing cars.)
The case for Baltimore: Might have played their bad game last week and gotten away from it. Home teams in this playoff have been far from invulnerable. The defense can score, and when that happens, they usually win. Coach Harbaugh has a vibe about him; he's like one of those Internet poker players that gets to the final table in a tournament, in that while you wait for him to make a mistake, he's stealing you blind. Have to feel like they are due to break through, given how close they came to winning both of the first two games. The case against: Really didn't do enough to win against the one seed last week. Flacco's just got 10-for-24, 120 yards and 2 picks staring down the barrel at him in this one. Opposing field goal kickers hate Heinz Field for very good reasons, which is to say, the Steelers have an advantage in the kicking game.
The pick: Maybe I'm just making too much out of having a healthy Parker against a pedestrian Charger defense, but damn, the Steelers looked good last week. It'll be close for a while and you will never see a playoff game where both teams are more afraid of the other team's safety... but the difference in this game is as obvious as Flacco vs. Roethlisberger. Give me the guy with the ring, the home field, the better mobility and the better wideouts. Despite the fact that I'm fairly convinced that I'm going to get sucked out with late points to lose the cover. Steelers 24, Ravens 16
For the first time that I can recall, it's a clear hardship to be the #1 seed in either conference in the NFL playoffs. Let's break it down.
The Giants could have played the Cardinals, a team that has been absolutely horrible on its East Coast trips, had an 8-8 record, and has trailed teams by 30 points in the first half on multiple occasions this year. Having been the worst division winner in NFL history, they now may be the worst Final 8 team as well. Instead, they'll get an Eagles team that handled them at home six weeks ago, has won 6 of their last 7 games, with a potentially explosive offense and has a defense that has been one of the best in football since Thanksgiving. All for the pleasure of beating the Panthers in overtime a month ago. (Who, of course, could have had the top seed if they hit a long field goal at the end of regulation, which would have also given the Giants four straight losses to end the regular season. But I digress.)
The Titans could have played the Chargers, a 9-8 team that, while holding a 5-game winning streak, has a banged up #1 RB and TE, doesn't rush the passer very well, and has a highly questionable game coach. Instead, they'll get a Ravens team that has the real most valuable player in the NFL this year on defense (Ed Reed, detailed below), a punishing running game, some effective offensive trickery and some serious momentum after a dominant road win last week in Miami. But they'll always have the memory of stomping on those towels in a home game against Pittsburgh a few weeks ago.
If all of the top seeds advance, it will all have been worth it, of course, because the top seeds will have home field for the conference championship game. But there's no question right now that the fans of both #2 seeds are very happy with how things worked out last weekend. This is also the point in the proceedings where I very adroitly link to a certain sportsbook. (And try not to make last week's mistakes, one of which was to pick the games as a set, rather than as individual events. This ain't literature; themes do not need to emerge.)
And with that... on the FREE NFL Picks! (Lines provided by BetUs.com.)
Baltimore at TENNESSEE (-3)
The second straight week that I'm going against the Ravens as they cast their eyes on a limited game manager quarterback with poor wideouts; let's just saw that I'm not real happy about that.
The case for Baltimore: They'll run well enough so that it won't be all on rookie QB Joe Flacco. Their defense should keep the Titans to 17 points or less, and is always a threat to score. They have the edge in punting, and make more big plays on offense, thanks to the trickery and Flacco's big arm, especially on deep balls. Derrick Mason has been on fire, and the best unit in this game is the Ravens defense. They are more likely to get a big play from their return game.
The case against: You can throw on them, with suspect corner coverage and a pass rush that doesn't get there without blitzing; even when the Ravens play great, they give you some chances. They don't have the bye, and are on the road. They persist in giving the ball to Willis McGahee when Ray Rice does everything he does, but faster. Keith Bullock can and will make Todd Heap disappear, which means the Ravens should play this game without a deep inside threat. Rookie coach, rookie QB and young RBs has to, at some point, mean a shaky game.
The Case for Tennessee: Home with a bye. Got rest for Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch, which was critical... and their replacements played well in their stead, which means that their defense could be primed for a huge day. Fisher has managed Chris Johnson's workload all year to keep him fresh for now; he could have another gear to show us against a tired Ravens d-line. The Titans have the much more experienced coach and QB in Jeff Fisher and Kerry Collins, and Fisher's teams are rarely outcoached, especially in a playoff. Rob Bironas gives them more of a chance at a long field goal than Matt Stover. While the Titans wideouts aren't good by any stretch of the imagination, they have been playing better lately, and while Justin Gage really isn't a #1, he could surprise with a big game here.
The case against: If Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch can't go, Flacco could have the time to get comfortable, and when he's got that, the Ravens win, because he makes you defend the whole field. Their offense might not outscore Reed. Collins has considerable experience in crapping the bed in a huge game against the Ravens defense. If Johnson and LemDale White can't move the sticks, it could be an ugly, ugly day for Collins. In a game that could have 20 punts, the Titans will lose anywhere from 50 to 100 yards in punting net yardage.
The pick: It's mostly a coin flip, because unless there is exceptional sloppiness and short fields, it's hard to see either team scoring more than 20 points. But I'm going to take the home town Titans to win and cover, just so I can do it again next week. Charm City, you're welcome.
Titans 24, Ravens 17
Arizona at CAROLINA (-10.5)
The rematch from one of Arizona's better East Coast visits this year, in that they were actually in the game, rather than completely blown out. It's also the late game on Saturday, which tells you all that the NFL thinks about the chance of this one being a barn burner.
The case for Arizona: Edge James looked good last week. A hot Kurt Warner can dominate, and has a very strong career playoff record. The offense can be explosive, especially if they get any kind of running game for Warner to use in play action. They have to be due for a good road game. They'll probably be good and loose, with plenty of "No One Believed In Us!" motivation. The defense can make some big plays, especially from quarterback pressure. The weather shouldn't be a factor, which is good, given that snow makes the Cards assume the fetal position. (And yes, I am still bitter over my fourth place fantasy football points league ranking following Warner's big effort in New England. It was just $60, but the pain stays, you know?)
The case against: There are reasons -- many -- why no one believes in them. Without Anquan Boldin, they are lacking the big RAC guy off short yardage, which is a real problem in a game where there will be pressure early. Road, no bye, with a coach that hasn't been the head guy on the road in a playoff before. Just an ordinary or worse team when defending the run, which is, um, a fairly large problem when you are playing Carolina. They've trailed early on the road all year, and if they do that in this game, it'll get ugly. Mistakes in the secondary are rampant.
The case for Carolina: Home, bye, and just (a lot) better. The Cardinals have no one that matches up at all well with Steve Smith, and also have real worries when staring down that running game. Defensively, they are more or less a perfect matchup for the Panthers, who don't defend the run very well, but won't have to after they get an early lead.
The case against: Well, everyone thought Atlanta was going to win last week, so Arizona certainly has some chance. Jake Delhomme has a solid postseason record, but that's got to end at some point, given some of the turdburgers he's groaned out this year. Carolina lives off big plays out of the running game; if they don't get them, they could get antsy and throw too much. With any big point spread favorite in the playoffs, a close game at the half can make things way too tight.
The pick: Carolina won this game, 27-23, in late October, when the Cardinals were playing their best football of the year. It was a comeback win, with Jake Delhomme finding Steve Smith to get it done. In January, in cold, off a bye and against a Panthers team that has been the best team in the NFC in the second half of the season? No way. No freaking way.
Panthers 31, Cardinals 17
PHILADELPHIA at New York (-4.5)
The latest in a series of street fights that goes back to the last Great Depression. Saying these teams are familiar with each other is like saying you're familiar with your teeth. And if it's anything but a 3.5-hour fist fight of more or less pure desperation, we'll all be disappointed.
The case for New York: Should hold a strong special teams edge, as Eagles' kicker David Akers is usually horrible in this stadium. In a field position game, Jeff Feagles is also better to have than Sav Rocca for punting. The home field edge is meaningful here, as Giants Fan won't sell these tickets to Eagles Fan for blood or money, and knows how and when to cheer; the freaky winds in this place are also pretty damn idiosyncratic. Huge end in game-day decision making here, as Tom Coughlin is good at it, and Andy Reid is not. Giants should have Brandon Jacobs and Antonio Pierce healthy and/or non-investigated this week, two critical differences from the last time these two teams played.
The case against: Playing their worst football at the worst time of the year. Without Plaxico Burress, there is no red zone mismatch to exploit, which makes stacking the box against the run a lot easier to do. Somewhere inside the heart of Eli Manning, Super Bowl Champion, there still exists the pick per touchdown guy who doesn't do well under defensive line pressure. Ahmad Bradshaw hasn't been all that great this year, and Derrick Ward might be a little overexposed compared to last year. Defensive pressure is somewhat sporadic, and the secondary has never been airtight. Linebackers can be taken in one-on-one matchups, especially in the flat. Talent-wise, not a clear favorite.
The case for Philadelphia: When they play at their top level, they can beat any team in the league... and avoid the close-game misery that usually kills them. With one exception (the indefensible 3rd and 1 interception on the fly route to Curtis at the end of the first half), Donovan McNabb might have played his best game of the year last week. They match up fairly well with this Giants team, especially now that Burress is out of the picture, and are extremely well-suited if the recent good run defense is for real. Might be able to make a play or two in special teams returns. Have that Team of Destiny feel after the miracle Week 17 suck-in against Dallas, with Chicago and Tampa spitting the bit. It's rare that all of the home teams win.
The case against: With the possible exception of Arizona, the lowest floor of any surviving team -- and yes, that includes the 9-8 Chargers. Clock and game management remain problematic, unless they are playing against a team that somehow does it even worse than they do (i.e., Minnesota). With the exception of the Jeff Garcia Memorial Playoff Game two years ago, do not have a wealth of recent happy memories in big games against the Giants. Punting and kicking usually don't do well in the Meadowlands. Brian Westbrook is not really himself, at least not on running plays and/or screen passes where his blockers aren't performing superhuman acts of pancakery. Might be a little too happy with themselves at this point, seeing as they've likely missed the Reid/McNabb dismissals that were obvious before Thanksgiving.
The pick: Normally when I make these, I go with my first instinct. This time, I just don't have one; the Giants just aren't playing well enough to keep me from having doubts about them. On a neutral field, with neutral bye weeks, I think the Eagles' talent edge in the post-Burress era would be too much to overcome, and while Brandon Jacobs can be a major matchup problem, he's also prone to fumbling and leaving while injured.
But after many back and forths, I think the bye is too much to overcome. That, and the kicking game. But a heart-breaking cover that leaves me unhappy and with the cold comfort of a little cash? Oh, Andy Reid's capable of that. Especially in a game that should see snow and rain.
Giants 21, Eagles 17
San Diego at PITTSBURGH (-6.5)
The case for San Diego: Phillip Rivers might be the best QB in the NFL postseason. I also might want to throw up a lot right now. Darren Sproles is 66 inches of Pure Danger. Antonio Gates, even at half-speed, is a matchup problem. The Chargers have big WRs that are problematic for defenses when the QB is accurate. Hot team that's playing free and easy, given that no one's really expecting them to get out of this round. With LaDanian Tomlinson more or less certain to miss, they will be able to play the best talent without trying to force-feed their broken star. Defensive secondary is prone to big plays, both for and against. The case against: 70% chance of winter precipitation. 100% chance of Freaking Cold. Norv Turner. Road team. No bye. They don't really rush the passer all that well, which is something you just have to do to have a chance against Pittsburgh, especially if you are going to have a shot at winning the turnover battle. Facing Jerome Harrison and Troy Polamalu, they won't win the turnover battle. Heinz Field is death to opposing kickers, and just plain death to anyone who likes to, well, make cuts or run fast. The Steelers know how to play in that, especially on offense; their opponents, especially from warm-weather locales, don't.
The case for Pittsburgh: At home, rested, and a lot better. Splitting the carries nicely between Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore, which is making both men more productive. Offensive line has played all the way up to tolerable recently, which has allowed Heath Miller to get loose and provide them another good option in the passing game. Defense is simply an elite unit, and could force 3-4 turnovers and score. Massive home field advantage.
The case against: Don't protect the QB well enough, or get rid of the ball fast enough, to be an iron-clad favorite. Might not be playing their best football right now, given the Big Ben injury in Week 17 and the loss to Tennessee earlier. Despite the threat of personal violence from multiple Steeler Fans who read this blog, I'm picking them.
The pick: Sorry, Iron City; I'm going with your guys. But honestly, if your team can't overcome my jinx to beat Norv Turner, you weren't going to get past the next round anyway.
The thing about Wild Card Weekend is that it's the first time since, well, last February that the games (a) mean everything, and (b) can't be avoided. If one of these games is a dog, you're stuck with it, for three-plus hours, until the next one comes around. There's pressure on top of pressure, and this is, along with the fact that there are some questionable teams at this stage still in the mix, why the weekend never delivers four quality games.
This year, we've got added weirdness to the mix, as all of the road teams started out favored, given the seeming weakness of the West teams. But you can make a case for any club at this point, and the spread show it; they are all four points or less, and should be. Given the way this year has gone, with no team dominant or even similar from month to month, and more commitment than that would just be foolhardy.
It all makes a fellow a bit gun shy about going to the sportsbook, but only for a little while, because dammit, it's not *that* hard. Besides, staying away from the action now is just kind of impossible, really: the perfect 11-0 run, after all, means that you can stop picking games for the rest of your life, since you'll have walked away on top.
And with that... on the FREE NFL Picks! (Lines provided by BetUs.com.)
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ATLANTA (-2.5) at Arizona
Two teams that weren't in the playoffs last year, and historically, two of the weaker franchises in the league. It's Arizona's first home playoff game ever, and the franchise's first since the 1940s. That's hard to do, folks.
The case for Arizona: They've got the home field. Kurt Warner has owned the Falcons in his career. They could be pulling off a marvelous hustle here, having more or less coasted for weeks. They're facing a rookie quarterback and a team that's struggled on defense recently; the Falcons really did stagger to the line when it came to stopping people. On a grass field, the Falcons' game of giving it to Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood might not be as strong.
The case against: They might be the worst division winner in NFL history. They had the majority of their wins over teams in their division; against good teams, they trailed by a lot early. Warner under pressure is a turnover machine. Unless you believe in the late-season renaissance of Edge James, they can't run the ball. The home crowd isn't really going to be that potent, since no one in Arizona is actually from Arizona, and they don't believe in this team after the last six weeks of suck. If they don't get to the quarterback, they give up huge plays, because the secondary is prone to big mistakes in coverage.
The case for Atlanta: They could have easily been the #2 seed, and survived the best division in football to get the wildcard. Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has been absolutely unflappable, and can also make plays with his feet. They've had big road wins before, and the running backs have honestly been the best 1-2 bunch in the league -- and yes, that includes the Minnesota backs. They just don't make mistakes, come out flat, or just seem weak in any way.
The case against: They're very inexperienced -- unless you count Turner's bench-warming days in San Diego, none of the principals has been under these lights before. The Cardinals could throw a big number up on offense and put the Falcons off their ground control game. They might be just happy to be here, or get caught underestimating the opponent.
The decision: Too much on the line here to hope for the Falcons to make tactical errors. The Cardinals will make this a game for a while, but they just have to play too well to make up for their faults.
Falcons 31, Cardinals 27
INDIANAPOLIS (pick em) at San Diego
Two of the hottest teams in football here, with the Colts coming in with a massive winning streak, and the Chargers coming in as the first team ever to make the playoffs after sitting at 4-8. Adding intrigue is the health status of LaDanian Tomlinson, who looked like his old self last week in the clincher against Denver, then left early.
The case for Indianapolis: Betting against Peyton Manning against a suspect secondary, with a team that struggles to get heat on the quarterback, is downright dangerous. Dallas Clark has been on fire for the Colts, and Dominic Rhodes has more than picked up the slack for the banged-up Joseph Addai. Marvin Harrison isn't very good anymore, but between him and Anthony Gonzalez, there's more than enough to make teams pay for overplaying Reggie Wayne. The defense has been as good as during the Super Bowl run, and Dwight Freeney is primed for a big game.
The case against: They've been more lucky than good, for the most part, with Houdini acts for their best wins. They spent the first half of the year getting by in the skin of their teeth, and the second half of the year playing tomato cans. Addai not being right makes them very susceptible to becoming a one-dimensional offensive team, and a patient team can move the ball on the Cover 2. They're on the road on grass, against a team that knows them well and has had some success over the years. Their historic weakness of special teams is a real issue here.
The case for San Diego: They're playing with house money at this point, given the Denver collapse; you aren't going to get more "No One Believed In Us!" motivation than they'll have this week. If Tomlinson is healthy -- and there's more than a reasonable chance that he is, since he left the Bronco game when it was more or less in hand -- that means a lot. Darren Sproles is a devastating weapon here, and the Colts don't really have a good matchup for Antonio Gates, let alone the rest of the Chargers big wideouts. They have a major advantage in special teams in this game, and could get a touchdown out of the return game.
The case against: They are an 8-8 team despite playing in a terrible division; if Kansas City had been able to cover an onside kick, their season would have ended weeks ago. Their coach is Norv Turner. Their homefield advantage has always been a little suspect, given how nice San Diego is; it's not as if people are intimidated to go play in that weather. The game could easily come down to Phil Rivers having to win it for them, and regardless of his stats for this year, that's not a comfortable situation, given the length of time that some of his rainbows stay in the air.
The decision: Probably the best game of the weekend, and the loss of a day to get Tomlinson healthy could prove telling. I don't think either of these teams are going to go far in the playoffs -- the Colts just aren't as good as their reputation -- but unless Sproles makes five big plays, I don't see the Chargers getting enough to keep Manning out.
Colts 31, Chargers 24
Baltimore at MIAMI (+3.5)
Probably the most physical game of the weekend here, with the Ravens coming in as the road favorite against a Dolphins team that made a historic turnaround from last year's 1-15 debacle. Both clubs come in from de facto playoff games, with the Ravens taking the Jaguars apart at home, while the Jets ended the Favre Era (one can but hope) in New York.
The case for Baltimore: Probably the best defense outside of Pittsburgh with all-everything safety Ed Reed as the true leader of the squad. A surprisingly potent offense by Ravens standards, with lots of good gimmickry, the strong arm of rookie QB Joe Flacco, an amazing last hurrah year from WR Derrick Mason, and a potent running game led by LaRon McClain. They've absolutely taken apart one-dimensional offensive teams this year, and given the arm strength of Chad Pennington, that could easily describe their opponent.
The case against: Both the coach and the QB are making their playoff debut. They've been surprisingly deficient against the running game on defense to patient teams this year. The defense is very prone to giving the ball back to you with laterals and weirdness on turnovers. They keep giving the ball to Willis McGahee, who's quietly terrible. Mason is the only consistent wideout, and he's played most of the last month with only one arm. If they have to keep Todd Heap in to block, they have no deep middle threat, and Heap doesn't block very well anyway. Special teams are ordinary.
The case for Miami: At home and expertly coached. They led the league in limiting turnovers this year despite running a lot of wildcat wackiness. Surprisingly deep wideout core, with home run hitter Ted Ginn Jr. providing a lot of utility, and tight end Anthony Fasano might be the most underrated player in the NFL. The running backs (Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams) can do a lot, and they'll stay with a running game even if it doesn't work right away. The defense has been opportunistic and reasonably resilient; it doesn't hurt that the offense rarely, if ever, puts them in a very bad spot. A home team has to win this weekend.
The case against: As you might expect from a team that's one year away from being 1-15 and starts Chad Pennington, this might be the least physically talented team in the post-season. The running game can be stopped, as neither guy really has breathtaking speed or moves at this point in their careers. Home field in warmth, as mentioned before, isn't nearly as imposing as a cold weather game... so maybe this isn't the home team to win.
The decision: Baltimore has absolutely feasted on non-playoff teams this year, and struggled mightily against teams that took care of the ball. I think Flacco struggles here, and the Dolphins ride the home crowd and better preparation to a mild upset. But whoever wins this game is going down next week anyway, so it's really not that big of a deal.
Dolphins 20, Ravens 16
PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) at Minnesota
The Eagles enter this game with that handy "the team that no one wants to face!" label -- and by the way, that almost never works out well -- given their lucky suck-out and utter de-pantsing of the quit-tastic Cowboys in Week 17. The Vikings won the division with a last-second long field goal against the Giant irregulars, earning them the NFC North division crown. It's also a fight between former Eagle offensive coordinator Brad Childress against his old mentor.
The case for Philadelphia: Closed the season with a rush, and with the defense playing its best ball of the year, particularly in run defense. Play-calling has been almost sane with its number of running plays in the last month. Correll Buckhalter has mde enough big plays that he might actually touch the ball this week. The Eagles are 4-0 against Minnesota in this century, with a playoff win in January 2005. They generally cause exceptional misery for inexperienced and shaky quarterbacks, and catch the Vikings down one Williams on the defensive line, which means they might actually have success running the ball.
The case against: Historically, they have been hurt by good running offenses in big games, and they are facing the most physically gifted running back in the NFL. Special teams has slipped in the second half, with punt returner DeSean Jackson looking a little run down, and punter Sav Rocca having several bad games. They struggle against active pass-catching tight ends, which describes the Vikings this year. Clock management, replay challenges, and just about everything that comes up in losing a close game is a problem. They are a road team in a loud dome, and might be the most inconsistent team in recent NFL history. If they could lose to Cincy and Washington, they can lose to the Vikings. Hell, they could lose to Temple.
The case for Minnesota: Dominant running game, with Adrian Peterson capable of 200+ yard games and Chester Taylor providing a very good change of pace. Bernard Berrian gives them a deep threat that only needs a throw or two to get the game-changing play they need. Tavaris Jackson can make people miss in space, and the game might be tight enough where that comes into big play. Defensively, they can force turnovers and feed on the crowd. Special teams might be an edge.
The case against: Jackson might be the absolute prototype of the NFL QB that struggles against a Jim Johnson defense; if he could more or less devastate Michael Vick with money on the table a few years ago, he should definitely be able to dial up something that Jackson can't deal with. If the Eagles bring their good running game defense, keeping drives going could become a real issue, and the defense is not built for winning the game without also winning time of possession.
The decision: Honestly, with the Eagles, you're out of your mind to try to pick the games; it's an absolute coin flip as to whether they'll show up and play well. If they do, they'll win. Historically, Andy Reid does well in early round playoff games, and Brad Childress inspires even less confidence than Reid in this situation. Besides, by winning this game, the Fatman more or less ensures that he'll have the coach and GM jobs next year as well, no matter how much they crap the bed in the second round. (And oh, yes, the crapping of the bed in the second round will not be for the faint of heart.)
The Week 17 picks are, perhaps, the hardest ones to write for the year. You get to do them in the midst of your Christmas routines, which is to say, when you barely have enough time to wipe, let alone think. Your money will be on teams with nothing to play for. The temptation to just take a knee and come out firing on Wild Card Weekend is strong.
But let's face it. People boo teams that just take a knee with money on the table, and they should. Play the game, not the clock.
I mean, so what if my 15 games over .500 record over 16 weeks just gets me a few hundred bucks from the sportsbook? It's the principle of the thing, the dream that my year's record will be something I can feel good about, along with the warm feeling you always get when you beat the odds and take the money home. So let's buckle the chinstrap, pay back the bastards that ruined us in head to head fantasy football leagues, and go to the FREE NFL Picks! (Lines provided by BetUs.com.)
New York at MINNESOTA (-6.5)
With last week's lucky but good overtime win over the Panthers, the G-Men clinched home field through the playoffs, and have little to play for this week. Some folks will think that Tom Coughlin will emulate last year's winning play against the Patriots by playing his starters, but I'm not one of them. Last year's team was an underdog that was in a historical situation of trying to knock off an undefeated team; this year's has everything it needs already, along with banged-up running backs that it will absolutely need to win in January.
Meanwhile, the Vikings, thanks to the Packers El Foldo on MNF (and what a fine year the brain trust in Wisconsin is having), are still at risk for losing the division and home field next week. At home, on a fast track, they'll get it done, provided Tavaris Jackson doesn't put it on the ground... and seeing how he's fairly nimble and the Giants won't care enough, that's not going to happen. Plus, any game where you might see David Carr is a game the G-Men aren't winning.
Vikings 27, Giants 17
Chicago at HOUSTON (-3.5)
Not sure why the home team is getting the favorite status here; you'd think that the Bears would be attracting more money, especially since they've got something to play for. The Texans also don't really create confidence after failing to take out the Raiders in Oakland last week. You can even make the Team Of Destiny talk happen for the Bears, since their season was saved on a chip-shot field goal block.
But what's tipping me to Houston is (a) the fact that the Bears have no one that can stay with Andre Johnson, which means the Texans will be at least 100 yards better on Sunday than they were last week against Nmandi Asomugha, (b) Kyle Orton suddenly looks like Kyle Orton again, (c) Matt Forte looks run down, and (d) home teams with the short MNF week are never a good idea the next week on the road. Even when they have something to play for. Texans 27, Bears 20
Carolina at NEW ORLEANS (+3.5)
Will the #2 seed in the NFC really go into the post-season with back-to-back losses against a team with nothing to play for? Yes, if only because the Saints will be fired up to try to get Drew Brees his single-season passing yardage record. Also, it's high time that Jake Delhomme gave the world a crap game to scare money away from them. Also, the Saints are OK at running the ball in the red zone now that they've moved away from the big names (Reggie Bush, Deuce McCallister) and to the people who can actually do it (Pierre Thomas, Aaron Stecker).
A final aside: the Panthers have something to play for, but the NFC South home teams are 11-0 this year. So when this pick goes bad, as nearly all of my Panther picks do, you won't be surprised, right? Saints 31, Panthers 24
St Louis at ATLANTA (-14.5)
A huge number to put down for a team that might not have too much to play for, but this Rams team is so close to the Quitting Line, they might not even line up for the second half. Expect Michael Turner to make his claim for the #1 RB in fantasy football after another 150 to 200 yard day here, and for the Falcons defense to reward Week 17 players with their waiver wire grabs. Heck, the Falcons might even wind up winning their division and the #2 seed. For a franchise that looked done for a decade from the Vick Debacle, it's beyond amazing.
The only chance the Rams have of covering this number is if Stephen Jackson cares and plays four quarters, which is to say, if he does something he didn't do in the entire year. The Rams lose their 10th straight with this one, which should cure the world of any inclination to hire Jim Haslett in a football-related capacity. Falcons 31, Rams 10
KANSAS CITY (+3.5) at Cincinnati
This, in a nutshell, is why people hate fantasy football: the fact that an ungodly amount of money is going to be swayed by the likes of Tyler Thigpen and Cedric Benson. I like the road team to cover here, if only to continue the Ohio Misery. Also, the Bengals ran Benson 40 times last week, and that kind of workload kills good backs. What it does to a piece of crap like Benson won't be pretty to watch. (And yes, if you're betting this game hard, it's more Gambling Anonymous grist.) Chiefs 24, Bengals 20
OAKLAND (+13.5) at Tampa Bay
Courage, gamblers. The Bucs have everything to play for. The Raiders are a terrible team with no functioning coach. The Bucs are in a good division; the Raiders, a terrible one. So why am I thinking the cover will happen? Well, the Bucs have been terrible against the run for weeks now, ever since Monte Kiffin told them that he wouldn't be back next year. Jeff Garcia never puts up a ton of points, and his best WR (Antonio Bryant) will go poof in this game against Asomugha. JeMarcus Russell has actually been tolerable for the past month, and Zach Miller is the best TE in the NFL that no one knows about. I'm not really expecting the upset here, but a cover is very possible.
Bucs 24, Raiders 17
Detroit at GREEN BAY (-9.5)
Independent of where you come out on the rooting side of a Winless Lions Season, the simple fact is that this Packers team is a *lot* better, and playing at home against a road dome team. Aaron Rodgers wants to make sure he has this job next year; the only loss of the year to the Lions is not the way to write the story of how 2008 really wasn't his fault. (And if you look at the 2007 13-3 Packers team, it's clear that they used up all of the 2008 team's luck. That, and it's cornerbacks. Someone needs to tell Al Harris about that fork in his ass.) Calvin Johnson being hurt doesn't help much, either.
Look for the Pack to get up early, probably on a Detroit turnover (the defense is quite good at scoring points, which makes their won-loss record even more inexplicable), and for the home team to feed Ryan Grant a lot in the second half. When it's all over, we'll finally be able to put away that Tampa '70s B-roll footage, too. Someone please find those guys and let them know that the media won't be plaguing them any more...
Packers 34, Lions 16
Tennessee at INDIANAPOLIS (+3.5)
Jim Sorgi! Vince Young! A bunch of running backs that normally return kicks! The payoff game for my cursed ownership of Anthony Gonzalez! Can you just smell the disappointment coming out of the NFL telecast booths that this game will mean squadouche, and that both coaches should play it accordingly?
Neither team can change their seeding in this; they can only get hurt and/or tip their hands for a possible second or third round matchup. So we should get a game that resembles August, and in that kind of contest, you're insane to put money down. Or to bet the road team. (The Colts also get the Chargers-Broncos survivor next week, so they're going to be very interested in making sure they're comfy in the hot tub on Sunday night.)
Colts 24, Titans 20
Cleveland at PITTSBURGH (-10.5)
I realize that every time I bet the Steelers and they lose, it's all my fault. But for heaven's sake, I like this number for the home team just on defense. Cleveland just went scoreless against the Bengals, for heaven's sake. And they are starting Bruce Gradkowski. On the road. The over-under in this game should be for the defensive team's points.
If you were Romeo Crennel, would you even show up for this game? You could get the jump on the airport traffic, and have the same impact on the contest, by just putting up a cardboard cutout and having some assistant move it with the line of scrimmage? You'd be warmer.
Steelers 31, Browns 6
NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) at Buffalo
Oh, the puling. You think Patriots Fan has been insufferable, folks? Just wait until his precious little 11-win team that played a kitten-soft schedule doesn't get their ticket punched for the postseason. I'd normally feel some sympathy, given their injury woes and the simple fact that more Chargers/Broncos football is really not good for anyone... but frankly, Pats Fans, your tears are SO YUMMY. (And this game will be closer than anticipated, just because after last week's "contest" against Arizona, they'll need some adjustment time for playing a team that cares a little. Fred Jackson also wants this job next year.)
Patriots 27, Bills 20
Seattle at Arizona (-6.5)
Crappy Redemption Time for the Cardinals, who want to avoid the monicker of Worst Team Ever to Host A Playoff Game. They get the Seahawks, who won their going-away game for Walrus Holmgren in the home snow against the reeling Jets. This week, the Cardinals will "muscle" up and Holmgren will lay down. The Cards will be up enough to bench their "stars" late, just to put the final dagger in the back of fantasy football owners. I'm angry just thinking about it.
Cardinals 31, Seahawks 20
Washington at SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5)
Two teams with nothing to play for, one team with a coach that will be there next year. The 'Skins come off a satisfying spoiler win against the Eagles at home, while the Niners pulled out a late win in St. Louis. So long as Shaun Hill doesn't turn the ball over, I like the home team to win a game that history will little note, nor long remember. Niners 24, Redskins 13
MIAMI (+2.5) at New York
Oh, J-E-T-S- JETS JETS JETS Fan. The Favre Era hasn't gone well for you, has it? And to think, no one could have seen this coming, that a 40-year-old turnover machine with a terrible recent playoff record might (a) fade down the stretch, (b) annoy you with retirement talk, and (c) get recognition that he doesn't deserve (a Pro Bowl berth, when he should have lost his job).
The Dolphins have some issues here; they are a warm-weather team on the road, and they have less talent than the high-salaried home team. But they also have the better QB in Prodigal Son Chad Pennington, who will manage the game, hand off to their talented running backs, not make the killer mistake and win the game. The bitterness from J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS Fan should be something to see, and the booing will be legendary.
Dolphins 24, Jets 20
Dallas at PHILADELPHIA (-1.5)
So here's how this works. Since this is the 4:15 game, the teams will know if the game means anything, depending on the outcome of Bears-Texans and Raiders-Bucs. However, this won't matter at all to the outcome of the game, because it's that kind of game; hell, I expect the Eagles to be *better* if the game is meaningless, since that's the kind of perfect Screw Your Draft and Keep Your Cancerous Coach outcome.
Besides, it's a pressure situation, and I think we've proven what Tony Romo does in that kind of situation. (And with Marion Barber and Jason Witten still banged up, the Eagles defense will be much better than last time, and it'll be cold and nasty to keep the points down.)
Oh, and here's a fun fact: 1996 was the last year in which Dallas had a winning record in December. From hell's heart, I stab at thee, Cowboy Fan.
Eagles 24, Cowboys 20
Jacksonville at BALTIMORE (-12.5)
A lot of points to lay on a home team with a rookie QB, but the Jaguars are without top corner Rasheed Mathis, and the Ravens need the game for the playoffs. Baltimore might be a bit of a paper tiger, with an 0-5 record against playoff teams... but the Jags aren't a playoff team, and the Ravens are. Look for 200+ yards rushing and a defensive score, as David Garrard's season of misery finally ends.
Ravens 24, Jaguars 10
Denver at SAN DIEGO (-8.5)
The final game of the season is a play-in game for the right to host the Colts, and the Chargers will win this one easily, just to suck in a lot of money on people thinking they are (finally) on a roll.
If you are tempted to take the Broncos just because the Chargers are that kind of awful tease, consider this: Tatum Bell is the last healthy Denver running back. Don't expect much.
In a shootout (because Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal will produce), look for Jay Cutler to turn the ball over more, and for LaDanian Tomlinson to make tens of millions of fantasy football owners curse bitterly as he finally has a breakout game in 2008. Chargers 34, Broncos 24
Did you know that we are already in the Age of the Robot? And tellingly, it's not cool sexy pleasure bots like Seven of Nine or even wise-cracking human-haters like Bender Rodriguez; instead, it's sickening little pukes like the Roomba vacuum cleaner and assembly-line retards that do nothing but cause good men to lose their jobs. As with many things that The Future was supposed to provide us -- hello? where is my damn flying car already? -- I'm feeling powerfully ripped off. (But not by the great forgotten band "Rise Robots Rise", who, by some miracle, actually have a video on You Tube. Get down with your bad robot self. Plus, there's some legitimately nice poon.)
Where, for instance, is the cybernetic man-machine that can finally rid the world of quarterback meatbags like what's afflicting the entire state of O High O? Tell me, Bengal or Brown Fan, once you've gotten your head out of the oven that you can no longer afford to heat, what you'd rather see at this point: Ken Dorsey, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jordan Palmer, Joshua Cribbs or Evil Otto from "Berzerk." None of them seem to have any kind of arm to throw the ball, but at least Otto has a chance at making a blitzing cornerback sorry.
(You can, if you must, play the game here. No download needed, since the memory required to run this thing now fits in an earbud. An old earbud.)
(As a final aside before we reel this thing back in... have you ever met anyone who didn't think the Fox Robot was, at best, worthless? Wanking in public while your paid mouth jobber chats up the clever people who designed the wanking is, well, wanking. It's time for New Austerity, people. Scrap that thing, unless it's taking time away from Tony Siragusa. Hell, given both of those options, show me another ad instead. I hear that Toyota needs to publicize its financing offers.)
It's also not helping matters that Vegas has (a) come to grips with the fact that home field advantage is no longer a league-wide phenomenon, since Rich and Worthless People go to the games and don't take their man-servants to cheer for them anymore, and (b) many of the teams in the league are trying to get their coaches replaced with every level of quit that they've got in them. Once again, I'd like a stern robotic overlord to get the next chance at motivating the troops. A fiery toaster or hard-assed answering machine with something to prove just might be just the change of pace that their players need after the horror of Crennel/Lewis. They couldn't really do any worse.
So after a tie-fest and the continuing horror that is the Carolina Panthers, we lost a little ground last week, but remain solidly above .500 for the year, and will make some sportsbook pay dearly for trifling with the likes of us. But soon, we'll be making all of our picks with the massive and frightening GAMBLOR3000 Betting Robot, who cries surprisingly lifelike tears when suck-out covers happen in garbage time. If only I could have it play for me at the poker tables in Atlantic City, and have some WRITERBOT3000 write this here blog, then I'd have time for the finer things in life. Like, oh, gambling and writing.
And with that... on to the FREE NFL Picks! (Lines provided by BetUs.com.)
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INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5) at Jacksonville
The Colts own one of the least impressive seven-game winning streaks in NFL history. Seriously, if you throw out the Houdini Act that they pulled on the Steelers in Pittsburgh, it's a run that would leave them lower in the BCS standings then when they started. The final two weeks at least brings us back to something approaching NFL football, as the Jaguars usually give them a fight and the Titans might still be in Caring Mode for Week 17, especially after Tom Coughlin showed the world that trying in Week 17 isn't a bad idea last year. (I can not tell you how much it hurts me to have something to thank Tom Coughlin for.)
The Jags come off a surprising win against the best awful team in NFL history, the Green Bay Packers, in which Maurice Jones-Drew finally cast aside his Fred Taylor shackles and made all of his fantasy owners realize what they've been missing all these years; namely, five to ten more touches a game that will eventually result in an increased injury rate and lower productivity. Take it from a guy who was very excited to get Marion Barber in two of three leagues, and not so excited to have him in the fantasy playoffs last week. Woof.
Anyway, back to this game... Peyton Manning has gone to Throw It To Everyone Mode, which makes the Colts harder to defend since they actually have all the same level of receiver now that Reggie Wayne has become fairly ordinary. Last week, he zeroed in on Dallas Clark; this week, it will be some guy you've never heard of, just to make you hate yourself for drafting Wayne, Harrison or (I'm still very, very angry) Anthony Gonzalez. For the Jags, expect a spirited first half as David Garrard targets Dennis Northcutt on the theory that he (a) knows what he's doing, and (b) actually gives a damn, unlike the other Jaguar receiving slugs. Someone will eventually get something out of Mercedes Lewis, but it won't be Jack del Rio. The Colts should win big, since they have something to play for and the Jags are kind of awful, but they won't, because they are the Colts. If I could bet on a spread of my blood pressure rising, I'd take the over here.
Colts 27, Jaguars 20
RAVENS (+4.5) at Dallas
Will the Ravens come into this game with useful anger over blowing the home game they had to have against the Steelers, or useless anger that they direct at themselves and the referees? It's Trial Time for rookie coach John Harbaugh, who has to be better than predecessor Brian Billick with much of the same talent that went down the Anger Hole last year after the Patriot Screwjob.
Helping matters is the fact that he's (finally) just doing the useful thing and giving the ball to LaRon McClain, who will have one of the more satisfying five-year careers in recent NFL history. If you liked Christian Okoye -- and who didn't, really? -- you're going to love McClain, especially while they still have Lorenzo Neal to block for him. It's just shy of 600 pounds of runaway hate, the way that God intended football to be, and guaranteed to be four of the more satisfying yards you'll ever see, especially if you like to see pretty-boy corners hurt in run support. But the visitors are really going to need a useful road game with minimal mistakes from rookie QB Joe Flacco, who has to avoid sacks, turnovers, and red zone field goal attempts if the visitors are going to pull off the upset. I think they'll get there, but it won't be easy.
For the Cowboys, they're doing it with mirrors now, as the five to ten plays a game that Tony Romo improvs into something very useful have become the sum and substance of the offense. Gone are the 10 and 15 play drives where the Cowboys move the ball from Owens to Witten to Barber to Misc. Wideout, with nary a third down, dropped pass or look of bewilderment from an increasingly overmatched offensive line.
In other words, it's December. And the Ravens need this game as much as the Cowboys, which makes it a de facto playoff match up... and we all know that Mssr. Romo doesn't really excel in those, does he?
The Cowboy defense has been playing better, but after 25 carries from McClain, they won't be. Flacco will look just fine when he play-action passes against a 10-man run blitz.
Ravens 20, Cowboys 18
PITTSBURGH (-2.5) at Tennessee
The Steelers finally catch a break in scheduling, at least relatively so, by catching the Titans when they are down. Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vander Bosch will both miss this game for the Titans, which means a world of difference to Somewhat Quick Willie Parker and his overachieving backup, Mewelde Moore. It will also mean that Big Ben will be upright and looking for his full complement of receivers (read: Heath Miller gets to play in this game), rather than just Holmes and Ward in double coverage.
Look for the Steelers to hold the ball for up to 35 minutes, keeping their defense fresh and snarly for the Titans' suddenly meager attack. Unless Chris Johnson has a 20 carries for 150 yards kind of day in him, I can't see the home team winning this game... and frankly, I'm surprised the number is this low. Yes, the Steelers have been lucky in pulling off the last few weeks of wins, but they are also good, and the Titans are a touchdown or more worse without two of their three best defensive players on the sidelines.
Steelers 27, Titans 13
MIAMI (-4.5) at Kansas City
A scant five years after his sell-by date, the Chiefs have left longtime GM Carl Peterson go, meaning that we only have two more games of Herman Edwards Playing To Win The Game left to savor. One hopes that Chiefs Fan, assuming that he's still able to walk upright after last week's last-minute reaming from the Chargers, will note the passage of time. Had Peterson's Chiefs managed to break through and win a Super Bowl in their years of high competence, many tragic NFL lives would have been changed. Marty Schottenheimer wouldn't be a punchline, Priest Holmes would have been recognized as the truly great back of his age, and Niner Fan would have been much more bitter about the end of the Montana Era. But, alas, all that Peterson will have to console himself with will be his USFL Championships, when he even made Jim Mora a winner. Yes, Virginia, there was a league where Jim Mora and Carl Peterson were big winners.
For the Dolphins, this falls into the classification of another road game against a turd team where they will make it look hard, because when you start Chad Pennington at quarterback, life is just hard. They'll squeak out a cover here, because Lo, The Chiefs Have No Defense, but it won't be by much.
Dolphins 27, Chiefs 21
Arizona at NEW ENGLAND (-7.5)
If this keeps up, the Cardinals could be the first touchdown-plus home underdog in playoff history. Seriously, let's imagine the line where the Cardinals lose out and have to face a winning-out Eagles, Cowboys or Falcons team. Now, add in the inevitable heartbreaking injury to Kurt Warner. It could easily be a double-digit line. Hope you enjoyed the wait for your first home playoff game in forever, Phoenicians! It's what you get for naming your stadium after just anyone with money.
(And hey, speaking of such things... does anyone else remember when Amway was a cult, and not a proud NFL sponsor? I'm officially creeped out by that. What's next, taking the Mormom Moolah to tell me how many NFL players really hate the idea of gay marriage? Maybe some Indian casino can buy stadium naming rights, now that all of the banks have gone kerflooey. Chico's Bail Bonds can definitely get some branding presence on the laundry. And you thought that sports in a recession wouldn't be fun?)
Back to the game... Matt Cassel racks up a billion fantasy points, you lose unless you own him and fellow waiver wire bait Pierre Thomas, Warner's touchdowns are vultured by random running backs and there's absolutely no bitterness from his fantasy owners. None. AT. ALL.
Patriots 34, Cardinals 24
San Francisco at ST. LOUIS (+5.5)
A classic NFC West matchup is... not something that's going to happen in this decade. So make do with this instant test of whether you have a serious gambling problem. Since I clearly do, I'm going with the team with the coach that will have a job next year -- that'd be Mike Singletary's Niners, who've been downright frisky for weeks now -- instead of the home team, who can't protect Marc Bulger, and probably shouldn't. (Though if Stephen Jackson actually runs with passion, I'll probably regret this.)
Niners 24, Rams 17
CINCINATI (+3.5) at Cleveland
Part Two of the You Have A Gambling Problem test is this classic turd battle of the AFC North, where Ohio's shame will be broadcast to all. There's no coach, quarterback or running back that should be employed, and the best wideouts are also hopelessly overrated. Picking a winner is strictly for dart board enthusiasts and Cedric Benson fans, which is to say, two groups of people who don't exist. I'll go with the road team, mostly for the idea that when your teams are this bad, count on the home fans going home unhappy. Again.
Bengals 24, Browns 20
SAN DIEGO (+3.5) at Tampa Bay
Do you go with the underachieving team with no running game, or the overachieving team with no running game? The Chargers come in after an escape act in Kansas City that was nearly short-circuited by the breathtaking stupidity of QB Philip Rivers, who didn't know to go for two after going up late, and contributed to a near breathtaking collapse that was only missed by a 50-yard field goal miss. Had the Chiefs converted that, the Chargers would be over and their fans would be relieved, but the torture is going to continue for one more week, because the Bucs just can't score right now, or tackle. They're also likely to start Brian Griese, which is like Rivers in ten years, after all the hope is gone.
Chargers 20, Bucs 16
NEW ORLEANS (-7.5) at Detroit
Just one more week, Detroit, and it will all be over, except for the decades of stock footage that you'll come to loathe. What will be the defining moment? I'm thinking it will be when Dan Orlovsky ran out of the end zone for the worst safety in NFL history, followed up by the winning field goal in the Minnesota game, then a reaction shot from Matt Millen, and finally a slow pan of misery from costumed Lions fans, perhaps at the Thanksgiving game. And if you think it hasn't already been made, you're fooling yourselves.
In this game, Drew Brees could throw a mess of picks while Orlovsky, Kevin Smith and Calvin Johnson have career games. But what will really happen is that Pierre Thomas will continue to punish the living and the dead, and Brees will shamelessly pump up his yardage numbers in an attempt to make Dan Marino even more bitter about life. Not possible, really.
Saints 34, Lions 20
NY JETS (-5.5) at Seattle
Oh, once again with the Jets going west to play a team they should throttle, but probably won't. They received an early Christmas gift from the breathtakingly awful J.P. Losman last week, which allowed them to win while failing to tackle Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson worth a damn. Brett Favre continued to provoke buyer's remorse while actually getting the ball to his wideouts, and the team continued to not run the ball enough. You have to admire coach Eric Mangini's commitment to not giving the ball to Leon Washington, no matter how good the results. Washington just made the Pro Bowl despite touching the ball only 104 times in 14 games. No, seriously. He's averaging 6 yards a carry and 24 yards a catch, and the Jets can only get him the ball 8 times a game. Words fail.
For the Seahawks, Seneca Wallace and Deion Branch have provided some late season goodness for fantasy owners, which has helped to distract Mike Holmgren from the fact that they've been slowly decreasing the salmon ration. Soon, they will all shun him, and he will sadly shuffle off to the coast to swim away. Do not look him in the eye. Jets 27, Seattle 20
Houston (-7.5) at OAKLAND
The Texans continue their late-season run towards being overrated in 2009 by having their second straight impressive win, this one a single point victory over the Titans. Credit goes to the suddenly stout defense and the continuing excellence of Steve Slaton, who now ranks seventh in rushing for the whole danged NFL. The fact that he's gone for 200 yards against the Titans, and didn't have anything much going on in the first month... well, my man crush is just getting embarrassing, so I'll stop.
The Texans are a big favorite here and a true darling of the late-season big money suicide pool bet, since you don't have to worry about burning them out before a playoff. Against the Raiders, they may provide for some uncertain moments, since Nnemdi Assomugha can make Andre Johnson disappear, Darren McFadden has given them a little juice lately, and JaMarcus Russell has actually gotten tight end Zach Miller to the point of ownabaility... but when you've been as bad as the Raiders have for as long as the Raiders have, the home field doesn't help. At all.
Texans 24, Raiders 16
BUFFALO (+7.5) at Denver
This is a horrible prop bet. Basically, it means that you're taking the Chargers to win in Tampa (yikes), so that the Broncos actually care enough to play this game... and then still lose.
Why I'm going for the upset is as follows.
1) The Bills should get back Trent Edwards, and will be able to move the ball on the ground against the Broncos.
2) Their special teams are very good, and could take advantage here.
3) The Broncos are capable of losing to any team at any time, and are down to their 8th or 9th choice at running back. At some point, that's got to matter.
4) Dick Jauron is, in all likelihood, nearly on his last game, and while he probably doesn't deserve to keep the gig, they do play hard for him. I think they'll try.
5) The Broncos are doomed to make the Week 17 game against the Chargers meaningful, and a shocking home defeat will complete the journey to two 8-7 teams fighting for a four seed. On the plus side, it will lay the seeds for the two division league that will eventually save us from this nonsense.
Bills 24, Broncos 21
PHILADELPHIA (-5.5) at Washington
So, is this Eagles team actually for real? There are reasons to be skeptical. Every team of any quality -- which is to say, any team that isn't in the NFC West -- is crushing the Cardinals. Once Plaxico Burress and Brandon Jacobs went down, and Antonio Pierce became ineffective, the Giants became pedestrian on offense and exploitable on defense, particularly for Brian Westbrook (and last week, Tashard Choice).
But the more realistic notion is that in the NFL, peaking in December is a very good thing, and that's just what this team has done. They are getting more out of the running game. Donovan McNabb might have been his most accurate last week against Cleveland. The defense has been very effective against the run, and ever since they de-emphasized Lito Sheppard, the pass defense has also been much better. Hell, even LJ Smith and Nick Cole have been effective, which also wasn't on the program. Now, if they could only get over that Disastrous Last Play of the First Half problem, it's all gravy.
For the Redskins, they are a five-car pileup of misery right now, with head coach Jim Zorn doing everything he can to mock those mid-season Coach of the Year ideas. The feud with Clinton Portis led last week to not giving him the ball on the goal line, and the juice has run out on the wideouts. Protection problems from the inevitable Chris Samuels injury has also made Chris Cooley stay in, making them even more punchless. They'll still get up for the hated Birds, but they don't have the talent to stay... and the Eagles know how bad Andy Reid is in close games, so they'll do what they can to make sure he doesn't get the chance to blow out. It's one more reason why he needs to resign. Eagles 27, Redskins 16
Atlanta at MINNESOTA (-3.5)
A de facto win and you're in game for both teams, and probably the most entertaining game on the docket. Expect lots of flashback moments to that Gary Anderson Disaster NFC Championship, otherwise known as the game that kept Randall Cunningham out of the Hall of Fame. That won't matter at all to this game, though it won't keep Viking Fan from feeling miserable throughout the entire ordeal.
The Falcons come in after a huge overtime win against the Buccaneers, which would have been more impressive if the Bucs weren't starting Brian Griese and reeling hard from the Panthers loss a week before. The Vikings come in after their feel-good win of the year, where they took the Cardinals apart at the seams in the desert. They even feel good about Tavaris Jackson, which seems almost impossible, but the Cardinals are powerful things.
The Falcons also catch a break with Pat Williams being on the shelf, which makes the Michael Turner / Jerious Norwood duo much happier. But I've got the feeling that the Vikings are playing too well in their pass defense -- honestly, they beat the stuffing out of the Cardinals line, and kept Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston well under wraps -- to make either aspect of the Falcons offense play well enough to win this game. Suddenly, the Vikings are looking like a much more formidable #3 seed, and if the Giants continue to stumble, might even get a bye. I think they've got too much to play for to blow this game, and the Falcons just aren't ready to make the final step.
Vikings 21, Falcons 17
Carolina at NEW YORK GIANTS (-3.5)
A suddenly compelling game, if not a real artistic triumph. The Panthers come in with the hottest running game in the NFL, Steve Smith on fire, and a defense that's doing more than enough to win. The Giants come in with one offensive touchdown in their last 8 quarters, and that was in garbage time against the Eagles. It's hard to see, on some level, how the home team wins this game.
Except... that the Giants are better than this, especially against the run. They can take away Smith; they haven't been, for the most part, victimized for big passing games from star wideouts. When you put a strong pass rush on Jake Delhomme, very bad things happen. Derrick Ward is due for a better game than he's had recently. And the Giants are too well-coached to just fall apart like this, even if they aren't particularly convinced that they need the #1 seed to make it back to the Super Bowl.
Giants 24, Panthers 20
Green Bay at CHICAGO (-4.5)
The last game of the week is one of those Grudge Matches were the records of the team's aren't supposed to matter, and that's good, because if the Vikings win on Sunday (and they will, of course, since I've picked them), this game won't mean a thing to anyone. Give me the home town Bears to continue the Packers' season of misery, since Ryan Grant won't run like he did against them in Green Bay, and the Packers' secondary has been giving away yards like government cheese. Well-aged, stinky, government cheese... Bears 31, Packers 24
Hey, kids! Did you know that because I don't use my real name in this here blog -- mostly because, despite years of practice, I've never learned how to spell Nmandi Asomugha -- that makes me much more likely to write horrible personal attacks and crude, callous jokes?
It's all brutally, lamentably true. Damn the Internets! It puts my very soul at peril. That, and all of the safe and secure sports gambling that I recommend that you also engage in, since it's the only way to make the games worth watching, especially now that so very many of us are floating in the bowl in head-to-head fantasy leagues. It's to be expected when you build your team around year-long studs like Marion Barber and Drew Brees, rather than Week 14 heroes like Shaun Hill and Pierre Thomas. So nice to have months of hopes die at the hands of free agent refuse. That's just fun! Also, I'm drunk.
(And anyone that wants to point out that this is just payback to the gods of karma for that fabled Billy Volek to Drew Bennett Garbage To Gold Championship Year... well, in the words of the immortal Homer Simpson, "Stupid poetic justice.")
The highly astute reader -- which is to say, every last one of you wonderful people -- will notice a new sharpness and relevance to the picks column this week. There are two reasons for this.
1) By managing to keep my head at 8-8 last week while others were losing theirs, I'm still up solidly for the year, with a chance of having my best year picking games well, ever. This is where a sportsbook really makes a fellow, well, glad to be alive. I heart the Internets!
2) The chance at being better than the Bad Tooth over at the World Wide Lemur means that I will have no choice but to take over his Web address, and then it'll be nothing but smug and self-serving conversations with my friends in public for money. Gentlemen, you've been warned. Suck up to me now, before I'm famous, living in Southern California, name-dropping for all that I'm worth and slowly ratcheting up the obnoxiousness until I've infected you all with it as well. I will now set myself on fire.
And with that... on to the FREE NFL Picks! (Lines provided by BetUs.com.)
* * * * * New Orleans at CHICAGO (-3)
By this point in the season, we know the teams pretty well, and what we know here is pretty simple. The Saints just don't win on the road; their only wins this year outside of the Superdome were in Kansas City and their "home" game in London. Included in those road losses were foldos to the Redskins, Broncos, Panthers, Falcons and Bucs; an actually good team wins at least one of those games, and has much more than a Win Out and Get Help chance at the playoffs. For all of his weapons and numbers, Drew Brees isn't dominant; if he was, the Saints would have won in Tampa two weeks ago, wouldn't have crapped the bed against Minnesota on MNF two months ago, and would have given his team a better chance at winning in Denver than a long Olindo Mare miss.
As for the Da Bears, they can't stop the pass against good teams, don't have WRs that get consistent separation, and might have the lowest ceiling of any of the NFC North contenders. That doesn't mean they can't win the division, especially if Matt Forte continues to show no signs of hitting the rookie wall, and every sign of remaining the poor man's Brian Westbrook.
In moments like this, the line is educational: two even teams, so the three-point home-field advantage keeps it from being a pick-em game. My bedrock hate for Pierre Thomas, and the fact that Brees was just ordinary last week when I needed him most, is pushing me towards the home team, despite the fact that they might have more talent and match up well with this Bears club. It's also the point in the year when the weather can really change your picks, since cold and snow and a dome team never mix. But since the forecast is calling for a game in the mid 40s, I'm... still going with Chicago, because it's also supposed to be windy. Of such matters, fortunes are made.
Bears 24, Saints 20
GREEN BAY at Jacksonville (+1.5)
Lost in the rush to judge Aaron Rodgers is this simple fact about the Packers; the defense has turned into the new Bengals. That is to say, a big-play unit (7 touchdowns scored) that just gives up a ferocious amount of points (307), mostly because they just don't get to the quarterback enough (21 sacks) and have old corners that just aren't quick enough to make the gambles pay off enough anymore. This Packers team is going to be good next year if Ryan Grant and Rodgers stay healthy and they fix the secondary. There is just too much talent here for them to be below .500, and 13-3 was not a Saint Brett creation. But there's something to be said for the sudden and shocking fall from won-loss record grace here. They are a quitters December away from double-digit losses and a top 10 draft pick. (So there's something to be said for tanking, really.)
As for the hometown team in this shockingly irrelevant matchup -- seriously, you could have gotten some nice indie cred for making these two teams your Super Bowl picks in one of the lowest-rated games in recent history -- well, we all knew that David Garrard wasn't going to throw 3 picks in 325 attempts in 2008, the way he did in 2007. But did anyone have 10 in 436, and a statistical dead heat performance to his 2006 season, back when he was still fighting for the job with Byron Leftwich? I know the man is dealing with a terrible receiving core of knuckleheads and a banged-up offensive line, but he's still supposed to be better than this, and there's something Just Plain Wrong about the fact that Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew aren't dynamite on dump-offs in the flat. This Jags' team quit weeks ago, and needs the cleansing power of fire. That, and they'll miss Matt Jones.
Packers 24, Jaguars 17
DETROIT at Indianapolis (-17.5)
Welcome to the most obvious suicide pick in the history of late-season suicide pools. You've got a comically inept franchise that will become the first 0-16 team in NFL history. They are on the road against a veteran Colts team that hasn't lost in months, always edges out terrible teams, and finally put up a big point blowout last week against the woeful Bengals. It's the only favorite of more than fourteen points that's on the board, and the other team that's favored by that much was absolutely dead in the water two weeks ago (that's Philadelphia in the MNF spot against Cleveland).
So why on earth am I expecting the Lions to cover?
Well, the Colts *still* aren't all that right. The Lions are by no means good, but in Kevin Smith and Calvin Johnson, they have two weapons that will be on this team when they are just ordinarily bad again. Seventeen points is a lot to cover for a team that hasn't had a breakout game from top wideout Reggie Wayne in forever, splits the carries to conserve #1 RB Joseph Addai, and will be taking every possible shortcut to getting some rest in the stretch run since they won't have a bye.
The way you destroy the Lions is how the Titans did it -- with a suffocating defense and a run until they quit, no mistakes offensive attack. Neither of those quite describe the Colts. Don't expect drama, but it also won't be utter comedy, either.
Colts 34, Lions 20
WASHINGTON (-7) at Cincinnati
If the Bengals just weren't such godforsaken quitters with an utterly hopeless QB, this would be a fine place to go for the upset. The 'Skins have to know they have nothing really left to play for, and with Clinton Portis and Jim Zorn getting into each other this week, it's Distraction Time in DC. The Bengals are actually much less awful against the pass, so if this one comes down to Jason Campbell throwing it all over the yard, a cover is not impossible; remember, they did that against the Jets and Cowboys earlier this year on the road, albeit with a less pathetic QB than Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. They also covered the line in the tie that we shall not speak of.
Despite a surprisingly early season burst, the denizens of the District are who we thought they were: a .500 or worse team, the clear #4 in the NFC East, with a talented but underachieving QB in Jason Campbell and an older first-time coach that seems to be in over his head. It took longer to get here then we might have anticipated, but we got here just the same.
Anyway, if the Bengals didn't already have their win for the year, and if they weren't all trying to get Marvin Lewis to never be hired in the NFL for any position ever again, I'd be tempted to go for the home dog. But that "are who we thought they were" thing goes both ways, and there's a reason why the home team has been outscored by sixty combined points in the last two weeks. (That reason is because they stink *and* they've quit. Magical combination, that.)
Redskins 27, Bengals 13
Tampa Bay at ATLANTA (-3)
Are the Panthers really as good as they looked on MNF? Did the Bucs just play a terrible game on defense? I'm inclined to think more of the former, just because it's December, they are tired, and what the Panthers did to them wasn't so much gaping holes as it was busted arm tackles. Getting beaten at the line on the road is bad enough, but when you can't close or finish in space, you're looking old, slow and in the way. And Atlanta might have better, or at the very least comparable, skill people.
Tampa probably will still make the playoffs; such is the power of a San Diego / Oakland home finish. But this game is looking a lot like what just happened to them last week, since they are on the road against a team with a live crowd, two solid running backs, and one WR that almost always gets his numbers despite being the only guy on the team you need to cover. Atlanta's defense isn't as good as Carolina's, but Matt Ryan is better than Jake Delhomme. Oh, and just because in the league where I have him, I was on a bye... count on Antonio Bryant to follow up on his 200 yards and 2 touchdowns game with 60 and zero. Some things, I just know.
Falcons 24, Buccaneers 16
SAN FRANCISCO (+6.5) at Miami
Oh, those frisky Niners! Mike Singletary probably locked up his 2009 contract extension last week with a surprisingly easy home win against the reeling Jets, and now he goes for the AFC East hat trick against a Dolphins team that probably had this one penciled in as a walkover a month ago. The line is inflated from the conventional wisdom of West Coast team travel woes, but that didn't stop the Niners in Buffalo two weeks ago, and I'm expecting another road cover, if not an out and out upset.
For the Dolphins, they continue to be relevant in playoff conversations by working out must wins against bad teams. But I can't help but think that they've already peaked for the year, back when they were the only team running the Wildcat formation. Ronnie Brown hasn't been nearly as electric as he was earlier in the year, and Chad Pennington is like a good middle reliever who is stretched to start games -- you can get away with it for a while, and maybe even ride a hot streak for half a year, but eventually, his lack of stuff is going to cost them. Probably not this week, though. Unless you've got them to cover.
Oh, and this just in... Dolphins LB Joey Porter continues his goal of being the least likable man in the NFL (now that Rodney Harrison is done) by standing up for Plaxico Burress and his need to illegally carry an unlicensed firearm. You see, athletes need their guns so, so much that they don't need to follow the same laws as everyone else. You might not to want to ask Joey for an autograph, unless you are wearing Kevlar.
Dolphins 24, Niners 20
Buffalo at NEW YORK JETS (-7)
Which team wants it least? Buffalo showed the good people of Toronto just how lucky they've got it with CFL ball in a snoozefest loss to the Dolphins that reminded everyone just how much they don't want to watch J.P. Losman. Oh, and the crowd was more or less neutral, with tons of vacationing Fish fans. Yay, karma! Meanwhile, the Jets continued their criminal neglect of an effective running game in a beatdown at the hands of the Niners in Candlestick. Oh well, at least no one in New York is going to make that Meadowland Super Bowl hype anymore.
In this game, you'd have to think that J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS Fan will take matters into his own hands and boo Saint Brett into morose check downs and handoffs. Or that head coach Eric Man E. Super Genius will finally wake up and realize that his offense needs to revolve around Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, especially when both of his WRs have utterly disappeared against weak defenses in the past two weeks. Jericho Cotchery is earning a place on my Never Own Again fantasy player list, along with Torry Holt, Reggie Wayne and Jeremy Shockey. On defense, the concern has to be stopping Marshawn Lynch, since those Lee Evans eruptions happen a lot less infrequently these days; if you are scared of Trent Edwards, it's only in comparison to Losman. The home team gets well and deluded here.
Packers 34, Bills 16
TENNESSEE (-3) at Houston
A highly interesting game for a 6-7 team that's doing a lot more than playing out the string. After a landmark win last week in Green Bay, the Texans are looking downright frisky, with the top 3 skill players of Slaton, Johnson and Schaub looking like keepers. Meanwhile, the Titans clinched the division last week, don't appear to be in terrible danger of losing the #1 seed, and could be poised for a road letdown game, especially if the Titans pull that I-AA Battled Red Catsuit thing again. Hence, the small line.
But what people are forgetting here is that the Texans' defense really isn't very good, which is going to make them stack the line to stop the Titan running attack... and when that happens, you give Kerry Collins all day to stretch the field and, maybe, find Justin Gage for a long one or two. They proved that they could win that way on the road in Chicago a month ago, and they'll do it again here. It will entertain few people, but the Texans will cover.
Titans 24. Texans 16
Pittsburgh at BALTIMORE (-2)
Grand Theft Football was committed last week at home for the Steelers, who rode a dominant second-half defense and the traditional December gift giving of Tony Romo to a tight win over Dallas. Now, they get the tough and tenacious second place team with ambition in Baltimore in their continuing saga to try to make the playoff schedule easier than the regular season.
For the Ravens, the only thing that seems to be capable of stopping them is their own offense. All of the points allowed in last week's mule kicking of Washington came off short fields than to offensive miscues. After the offense had made the game interesting, the team finally did what good teams do at home with a lead; ran it down the throat of the opponent with Lorenzo Neal blocking for LaRon McClain, and after a dozen or so of those plays, the play-action touchdown to Derrick Mason could have been executed by just about every quarterback in the league. Maybe coach John Harbaugh is keeping McClain fresh for the playoffs with his pointless use of team cancer Willis McGahee. Either that, or he's just giving the Steelers a lot of hope for this match-up.
The real problem for the road team here is that, well, the Ravens are *good* at rushing the quarterback, and against teams like that this year, the Steelers have done things like give up double-digit sack totals and had Big Ben been unable to finish the game. I'm not expecting a mirror replay of that game. Oh, wait... actually, I am. (Oh, and if there is any bet to make here with confidence, it's the under.)
Ravens 16, Steelers 13
DENVER (+7.5) at Carolina
How enthused are fantasy sports honks about owning a Carolina running back for this matchup? Denver has only recently gotten its D back in this column, and with Champ Bailey expected to provide some measure of help against Steve Smith, the onus will fall (as onuses always do) to Mssrs. Williams and Stewart, who merely combined for 300 yards and 4 touchdowns against a presumably good Buccaneer defense on MNF. Add that to Denver having to travel for the game and the peculiar desire on the part of all AFC West observers to insist that Dammit, The Chargers Aren't Out Of This Yet, and it's a growing consensus for the home team.
HOWEVAH, as Screaming A. Smith might say (look him up on the Internets, kids, he was a programming genius)... I'm going the other way here, despite the fact that Denver RB is right up there with Spinal Tap Drummer in terms of job security. You might have noticed in the game where Carolina was running like crazy that the Bucs, of all people, were moving the ball fairly well via the air. Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall are a lot better than Jeff Garcia and Antonio Bryant, and with Bailey giving the Broncos a chance to stack the line against the run, I'm liking the road dog cover here. Besides, teams coming off big MNF wins tend to struggle the next week, especially late in the season where recovery time is critical.
Panthers 27, Broncos 24
SAN DIEGO (-5.5) at Kansas City
Happy days are here again in LoCal, where a dominating win over the Raiders and the eternally amusing state of the Worst Division There Ever Was (unless, of course, you are an NFC West devotee) has the home team thinking that the Norv Stretch Drive is going to kick in any second now. The Chiefs continue to provide some value for roto players, but no one else, and while they historically own the Chargers at home, this isn't the run or lose team they've usually provided heartbreak to. If Turner wasn't Turner, he'd be giving many touches to Darren Sproles now and enjoying the actual burst. If Herm Edwards wasn't Herm Edwards, he'd be moving on from Larry Johnson with all possible speed. And if you've got serious confidence in either of these glue factories, you're a better gambler than me...
Chargers 28, Chiefs 21
SEATTLE (+3) at St. Louis
What would you rather watch than this game? My list includes surgery, telenovelas without transcripts, backyard wrestling and braying conservative jackass theatre as to how everything that's happening in the markets is the fault of the guy who doesn't even have the job yet. All of these things will provide more low comedy (and titty) than a game for fantasy players who clearly aren't still alive in their leagues, because the big Stephen Jackson Payoff that happens in this game will be countered by the previous ten-plus games of blinding sadness.
For the road 'Hawks, Seneca Wallace to Deion Branch scared the Patriots senseless last week, and they've got to be liking their chances against Marc Bulger, who has gone into full Bobby Hoying mode of turtling up against any defensive pressure. With Donnie Avery hitting the rookie wall and Torry Holt running as if he was dragging a wall behind him, I think I'd be looking for a comfy spot on the turf, too. The home crowd in St. Louis will make the Seahawks think it's a game played on a neutral site. Like, say, a warehouse.
Seahawks 20, Rams 10
Minnesota at ARIZONA (-3)
Curious game here. The Vikings need it more than the Cardinals, who have already wrapped up their trembly first round playoff loss by finally putting the NFC West out of its misery last week. But the Cardinals are better against the run than the pass, and teams that are traveling to the desert normally have problems, even when their quarterbacks aren't Gus Frerotte. The continuing mystery that is the Williams Wall Suspension could also swing this game large; at stake is whether Cardinals RB Tim Hightower will disappoint his fantasy owners or *really* disappoint them. Never has a rookie RB ran for so many touchdowns while breaking so many hearts; the man is making LemDale White sit up and take notice, at least until the rolls of fat make him collapse into the fetal position again.
I'm going with the home team here, mostly because I think Kurt Warner secretly wants another MVP award very badly. He's got to be smart enough to know that he's not going very far in the playoffs with that secondary, and that the next contract he signs will be his last. So look for 350 yards and 3 touchdowns as he pads his numbers against a Vikings defense that isn't as good as advertised.
Cardinals 34, Vikings 20
NEW ENGLAND (-7) at Oakland
Will this be the week that the Patriot Dream dies? Probably not, given just how awful the Raiders are despite games of actual production, but you know it's coming, just from their sudden lack of any kind of margin for error. Last week in Seattle, they were actually a fourth down conversion from the 2 away from a shocking loss to a Seahawk team that hasn't shown a pulse for weeks. It's not looking very good for them, but hell, it's the AFC East; someone not very good has to win it, them get stomped in the playoffs.
As for Oakland... um, what exactly do you say about a team that was supposed to be bad, and is, well, bad? Zach Miller seems to be a useful player. Johnnie Lee Higgins might be still drawing a paycheck in five years, and could be quite useful if he were in a place where the games mattered. Nmandi Asomugha has made me write his name enough times to get it done in only two minutes of cross-checking. They aren't as bad as other really bad teams. And until the owner is taken out and actual professional practices are used in the judging and training of football players, it's all exceptionally meaningless. No wonder Raider Fan is a whiskey drunk.
Patriots 27, Raiders 16
New York (+3) at DALLAS
Perhaps the most intriguing game of the week. The Cowboys have had more success than most against the Giants in the past few years, with Tony Romo throwing for big days and the defense not getting steamrolled by the Giants running game. Both starting quarterbacks have struggled in December, not that Giants Fan cares about such things anymore. Both teams have a big physical lead back who is coming in banged up. The only real difference here is that the Cowboys' Idiot WR is still on the field, while the Giants are spending their Plaxtime trying to get back the money he isn't earning after shooting himself accidentally. (I know, I know, it's still funny.) One also suspects that while they'd like home field throughout the playoffs, they aren't going to kill themselves over it, after winning the Super Bowl last year with repeat road wins.
Dallas needs the game more than the Giants, and has home field. They also could have easily won last week in Pittsburgh, which would have made their wildcard hopes a lot more realistic. They should get Marion Barber back, and I'm looking for him to run angry (which for Barber would make him damn near psychotic) as his answer to Jerry Jones questioning his toughness. Tashard Choice's good game in Pittsburgh might also give them the secondary punch they've been missing since Felix Jones went down, a surprisingly important injury for them. If LJ Smith was able to to do things to the Cowboys last week, count on Jason Witten doing more. And while the Giants will be better than they were last week, they are still down one good WR... and more importantly, also seem to be losing the effectiveness of their best LB in Antonio Pierce.
Cowboys 24, Giants 20
Cleveland at PHILADLPHIA (-14)
Andy Reid needs to resign! The reason why for this week is that he clearly overused Brian Westbrook in last week's beatdown against the Giants. 39 touches for the man he's always treated like a china doll was way too much, especially when you've got the two-headed monster of Lo Booker and Kyle Eckels just ready to go on the bench. Expect all of that to come back to haunt them against the Cromeos, who have Ken Dorsey throwing to Braylon Edwards, Steve Heiden and Donte Stallworth, when he's not handing it off to Jamal Lewis. This one has Trap Game written all over it...
And yes, I'm kidding, about everything but the Reid Resignation. Once you are under my bus, Fat Man, YOU STAY THERE. Eagles 34, Browns 13
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No pussy-footing around this time, kids. Here's your FREE NFL Pick.
