Let me be the first to say it: Brian Dawkins can go to hell.
Now, don’t get me wrong. I love me some Brian Dawkins. I’ve got his jersey hanging in my closet and I’ll soon have a second (gotta take advantage of those sales). He is probably the second greatest Eagle of all time behind only Concrete Charlie. When he’s elected to the Hall of Fame, and he damned well had better get elected, I’ll go to Canton and cheer like a fool.
But he can still go to hell.
I don’t begrudge the man for taking more money to go to Denver. Pro football is a mercenary business and if I was a 35-year-old safety with declining skills and somebody offered me that kind of coin, I’d sign so fast the pen would burst into flames.
But I don’t want to see him on the teevee with a snot bubble in his nose, blubbering about how hard it is to leave Philadelphia and how much he loves the fans and blah, blah, blah. Spare me.
He took the money to play for a rookie head coach on one of the worst defenses in the NFL. That was his choice. The Eagles offered him a contract. He didn’t take it. He took the Broncos and the cash. That’s all good; get paid, homie.
But he can’t pretend that he’s the injured party. He can’t drunk dial us at 3 a.m. whining about how much he misses us and he made a mistake and he’ll never love anyone like us and on and on. Dry your tears with that big-ass signing bonus, big boy, and lose my phone number. You walked out and I've moved on.
I can’t miss you until you leave, Dawk. So pack your shit and go.
Marc Maron is a lefty comedian and political agitator. He's also a fairly perceptive mind, even though I don't agree with him all the time, and has a fairly original take in regards to L'Affaire L'A-Roid.
Maron equates the use of performance enhancing drugs to Viagra -- in that in both uses, you are substituting Extreme Fun for Reality, and it really just comes down to what you want from your experience.
(We're now going to spend the rest of this blog post trying, without success, to avoid the keywords that will fill the post with auto-spam comments.)
In one fell swoop, Maron pulls the shaky morality tentpole out of the three-ring circus of Public Condemnation For Dirty Cheating A-Roid. But let's face it... if there was something that the common person could take that would make them so good at their job that they'd be independently wealthy long before retirement age, you'd be seeing people shooting it into their eyeballs during the morning commute. Especially if that commute was long.
Not to get too far into the puerile, but would the women who are with the guys that can only function with the little blue miracles... be there if they couldn't? Some, sure, especially if the guy has more going for him than a reliable tool; money, looks and kindness can go far in the world. But not all, of course, especially if our theoretical Pharmaceutical Warrior finds himself lacking in the finer graces. For those couples, Extreme Fun compensates, just as it does for people who are paying two to three times for a ticket to a game that they did a generation ago. (Admittedly, not in the same parks. Oh, the siren song that is a new gouge-tastic yard.)
Maron believes (and who am I to question him on such things, having never played the Bob Dole Invitational myself) that what you lose with Extreme Fun is intimacy, honesty and integrity. The first two, sure. The last one, I don't agree, because my definition of integrity might be a little looser than Maron's. Going to our old friend Mr. Dictionary...
(Noun): Adherence to moral and ethical principles; soundness of moral character; honesty.
Nothing there about the character being, well, good.
This is getting pretty far from the toy department, but I think pathological people, more often than not, have integrity. I also think that if you're really good at your job, there's a reasonable chance that you are at least a little bit pathological about it. Michael Jordan might have been the most competitive man on the planet. At age 4, Tiger Woods' father threw firecrackers during his backswing to make him focus. Most stars of sports where youth is served hard (tennis, swimming, gymnastics, boxing, ice skating) and individualistic seem, at best, warped to a "normal" outlook. Every pro poker player you've ever seen on television seems like a spooky math and/or gambling freak. And so on, and so on.
When Alex Rodriguez, Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds and untold hundreds more were using steroids, they weren't all lacking in integrity. Hell, they probably were able to justify it all in the same sacrifice for the team credo that athletes have used to motivate themselves since sports (and, well, war) began. (And whether or not a nation's soldiers should be given carte blanche to juice up is a whole 'nother kettle of inedible ethics fish. Let's stay on what passes for the target.)
Having integrity doesn't make you moral. Taking steroids when any number of opponents were doing so as well... might not even be unethical, because ethics are dependent on the individual.
But what they are, and this is key, is a perversion -- an unplanned, ad hoc, unfairly administered perversion -- away from intimacy and honesty, and into Extreme Fun.
And here's the nasty truth that no one wants to admit in this whole mess. We, the MLB-watching public, were much more interested in buying the lie. And until we take our share of the blame, and admit it, and refuse to buy the fake crap... well, everyone's just going to figure out a better way to cheat.
After all, no one's gotten poor from selling Viagra, right?
For the first time in 30 years, ticket sales at the Pro Bowl are lagging to the point that the game is in danger of being blacked out locally in Honolulu. Considering that Aloha Stadium only holds 50,000 people, and that Hawaii is trying to convince the NFL to continue to hold the game there (plans are afoot to put the game in the bye week before the Super Bowl, and on the mainland, in future years), this is officially regarded by the league as Proof Of That Bad Old Economy, and they've got a point. Mainlanders just aren't visiting the Volcano Vomitorium right now, as part of their whole Never Spend Money Again thing, and the locals just don't seem too willing to separate themselves from $85 to see guys trot around in breathtakingly awful uniforms and mismatched headgear.
But that's not why you're reading this, are you? No, you want to see whether there can be such a thing as a structured and detailed breakdown of the game, to the extent that you'd be comfortable making a wager. Hell, I'm a little curious myself. (And intrigued, and a little flattered by the attention...)
And with that... on to the FREE NFL Picks! (Line provided by BetUs.com)
AFC (+2.5) over NFC and the OVER (which is 64)
The case for the NFC: A lot of continuity. You've got Kurt Warner throwing to Larry Fitzagerald and Anquan Boldin; one suspects that they all know where they are going to go. You also have Adrian Peterson, who is young enough to care about this and bent enough over the fact that QB Tarvaris Jackson made his playoff run hopelessly short. He also wants to wrap up the #1 overall fantasy pick in 2009 from the surprising Michael Turner, who is his back-up in this game. Bet on bitterness. Also, AP is running behind Steve Hutchinson, who will probably take some grief if he phones this in.
Also, there's this. The AFC skill players are comparatively lacking. Peyton Manning might be the king of the Pro Bowl, but he's also not as sharp/good as he used to be, and when he hands the ball off to Thomas Jones, you'll realize that Jones got to Hawaii for the strength of his year, rather than his talent.
Finally, don't underestimate the fact that Andy Reid's the coach of the NFC team. It says something about how few people care about this game that people in Philadelphia aren't riding the Fat Man's need for a paid Hawaii vacation -- this is his *fourth* in the last eight years -- over his need to, you know, win a freaking Super Bowl. Not that we're bitter.
The case for the AFC: Even though Brett Favre won't play, it could still be the last time that an NFL telecast could spend the entire telecast talking about him. This also ensures that the refs will be in the tank for him and his teammates; I think if Bretty just starts sobbing on the sidelines, they'll change the score to see if he brightens up.
There are two players to watch on the lines in this game -- Carolina's Julius Peppers and Tennessee's Albert Haynesworth. Peppers is good, but Haynesworth is an unstoppable defense machine, and this is his last chance to show every team in the NFL why they should break the bank for him. I'm thinking he's going to make some plays.
Finally, there's this -- you can't blitz in a Pro Bowl. (Hell, you can barely tackle. There's a reason why the only memorable play in the entire history of the thing is below.)
So it helps to have the best secondary... and the AFC has Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, Nnamdi Asomugha and Cortland Finnegan, while the NFC makes do with Charels Woodson, Antoine Winfield, Nick Collins and Adrian Wilson. Advantage, strong, to the AFC. If nothing else, they're more likely to get a pick.
Oh, and if you think it's crazy to wager on the Pro Bowl... um, you do realize that the Cardinals nearly won the Super Bowl, right? Sanity and gambling were not on speaking terms this year, folks.
And in the final analysis... As much as I'm tempted in Jebus throwing Warner a give back, the AFC is more likely to avoid INTs and get their own. I'm seeing Ed Reed in the highlights.
Remember Brandon Jennings? Probably not, in that this blog's readership isn't much for the NBA Draft, but Jennings is the kid who raised middle fingers to David Stern's one year on the plantation requirement for high school ballers to spend time in college. Jennings took the money and ran to Lottomatica Virtus Roma, a top Italian professional team, for $1.2 million. It turns out that, according to the Gray Lady, he's not happy.
Jennings was supposed to be a high-scoring point guard, but in the Euro game, he's been little more than a defensive stopper who only takes open shots. This has led some observers to note that since many of the top players in this year's class have said they aren't going to Europe, that this means the Jennings Threat is over. You see, players want to be famous in the NBA, more than getting paid.
Um... I realize that people *want* college basketball to succeed. March Madness is good times, after all. But I'm just not seeing it, for the following reasons.
1) Jennings is still likely to be a high draft pick this year. And if his draft position has been hurt by his Italian sojourn, it's probably still not enough to make up for the guaranteed $1.2 million.
2) Having one underaged guy come over doesn't necessarily mean that you are going to have a flood next year. What would, of course, cause that is a handful of catastrophic injuries to some highly regarded freshmen.
3) If this country continues having economic distress -- and, well, it's hard to see how that changes at least in the next 6 to 12 months -- the currency edge of getting Euros might continue to grow.
So, yes... it's a man's league over there, and there's no doubt that being the big man on campus has got to be more fun. But declaring the exodus over just because the first guy over is having no fun seems, well, silly. Money talks.
So the Mets and Yankees have gone on their usual obscene spending spree at the MLB talent markets, taking on salary at a time when most teams are shedding it. And there is (relatively) no hue and outcry, mostly because:
1) The players they are getting are pitchers, and therefore more than a little suspect when it comes to delivering value for the money (A.J. Burnett is, just like Carl Pavano, an ex-Marlin...)
2) Both teams were irrelevant to the MLB postseason last year, and even with the talent infusion, are not a lead-pipe cinch to get there now
3) All of the players who have been bought come with caveats, some of them significant.
CC Sabathia is fat and hasn't done it in the playoffs; he also clearly didn't want to go to New York. Seven year contracts are also a strange new world of risk; one big injury and they are on the hook for years of hurt.
AJ Burnett has a career 3.81 ERA and an 87-76 won-loss record, and had his only good year in the AL was last year -- to wit, in his walk year. That's also the only year where he stayed healthy and threw over 200 innings. If everything goes well for the Yanks, he's the number four starter (behind Sabathia, Wang and Chamberlain), and works fine as that. But at $16 million a year for another five years (which means they are expecting him to still be viable at age 36), he's going to be untradable if he doesn't work out.
K-Rod has the single save season record, but he's also had reduced velocity in the second half of last season, and a checkered post-season career. JJ Putz, as my bitter fantasy team can attest, was far from effective last year, and relievers are like that.
Finally, there is this -- Sabathia's already left his original team, last year, when Milwaukee rented him. Burnett is joining his third team. Putz took a while to become dominant. Only Rodriguez is coming from a situation where he is deeply recognizable as attached to one franchise, and that franchise didn't choose to keep him. So this doesn't have the effect of, say, Jason Giambi getting ripped from his first franchise by the big money boys, or Manny Ramirez being auctioned off from his first team.
It may all seem unfair and an obvious system error to have such inequitable payrolls, especially in a time of austerity. But with luck, both NY teams will fail for other reasons (the Yankees have a surprisingly ordinary or worse offense, and the Mets are filled with, well, the Mets, who have a two-year run now of choking in September), and we'll all be able to pretend that payrolls don't dictate much of the merits of the teams. Much as we have, well, for the past 150 years...
Hey, kids! Did you know that because I don't use my real name in this here blog -- mostly because, despite years of practice, I've never learned how to spell Nmandi Asomugha -- that makes me much more likely to write horrible personal attacks and crude, callous jokes?
It's all brutally, lamentably true. Damn the Internets! It puts my very soul at peril. That, and all of the safe and secure sports gambling that I recommend that you also engage in, since it's the only way to make the games worth watching, especially now that so very many of us are floating in the bowl in head-to-head fantasy leagues. It's to be expected when you build your team around year-long studs like Marion Barber and Drew Brees, rather than Week 14 heroes like Shaun Hill and Pierre Thomas. So nice to have months of hopes die at the hands of free agent refuse. That's just fun! Also, I'm drunk.
(And anyone that wants to point out that this is just payback to the gods of karma for that fabled Billy Volek to Drew Bennett Garbage To Gold Championship Year... well, in the words of the immortal Homer Simpson, "Stupid poetic justice.")
The highly astute reader -- which is to say, every last one of you wonderful people -- will notice a new sharpness and relevance to the picks column this week. There are two reasons for this.
1) By managing to keep my head at 8-8 last week while others were losing theirs, I'm still up solidly for the year, with a chance of having my best year picking games well, ever. This is where a sportsbook really makes a fellow, well, glad to be alive. I heart the Internets!
2) The chance at being better than the Bad Tooth over at the World Wide Lemur means that I will have no choice but to take over his Web address, and then it'll be nothing but smug and self-serving conversations with my friends in public for money. Gentlemen, you've been warned. Suck up to me now, before I'm famous, living in Southern California, name-dropping for all that I'm worth and slowly ratcheting up the obnoxiousness until I've infected you all with it as well. I will now set myself on fire.
And with that... on to the FREE NFL Picks! (Lines provided by BetUs.com.)
* * * * * New Orleans at CHICAGO (-3)
By this point in the season, we know the teams pretty well, and what we know here is pretty simple. The Saints just don't win on the road; their only wins this year outside of the Superdome were in Kansas City and their "home" game in London. Included in those road losses were foldos to the Redskins, Broncos, Panthers, Falcons and Bucs; an actually good team wins at least one of those games, and has much more than a Win Out and Get Help chance at the playoffs. For all of his weapons and numbers, Drew Brees isn't dominant; if he was, the Saints would have won in Tampa two weeks ago, wouldn't have crapped the bed against Minnesota on MNF two months ago, and would have given his team a better chance at winning in Denver than a long Olindo Mare miss.
As for the Da Bears, they can't stop the pass against good teams, don't have WRs that get consistent separation, and might have the lowest ceiling of any of the NFC North contenders. That doesn't mean they can't win the division, especially if Matt Forte continues to show no signs of hitting the rookie wall, and every sign of remaining the poor man's Brian Westbrook.
In moments like this, the line is educational: two even teams, so the three-point home-field advantage keeps it from being a pick-em game. My bedrock hate for Pierre Thomas, and the fact that Brees was just ordinary last week when I needed him most, is pushing me towards the home team, despite the fact that they might have more talent and match up well with this Bears club. It's also the point in the year when the weather can really change your picks, since cold and snow and a dome team never mix. But since the forecast is calling for a game in the mid 40s, I'm... still going with Chicago, because it's also supposed to be windy. Of such matters, fortunes are made.
Bears 24, Saints 20
GREEN BAY at Jacksonville (+1.5)
Lost in the rush to judge Aaron Rodgers is this simple fact about the Packers; the defense has turned into the new Bengals. That is to say, a big-play unit (7 touchdowns scored) that just gives up a ferocious amount of points (307), mostly because they just don't get to the quarterback enough (21 sacks) and have old corners that just aren't quick enough to make the gambles pay off enough anymore. This Packers team is going to be good next year if Ryan Grant and Rodgers stay healthy and they fix the secondary. There is just too much talent here for them to be below .500, and 13-3 was not a Saint Brett creation. But there's something to be said for the sudden and shocking fall from won-loss record grace here. They are a quitters December away from double-digit losses and a top 10 draft pick. (So there's something to be said for tanking, really.)
As for the hometown team in this shockingly irrelevant matchup -- seriously, you could have gotten some nice indie cred for making these two teams your Super Bowl picks in one of the lowest-rated games in recent history -- well, we all knew that David Garrard wasn't going to throw 3 picks in 325 attempts in 2008, the way he did in 2007. But did anyone have 10 in 436, and a statistical dead heat performance to his 2006 season, back when he was still fighting for the job with Byron Leftwich? I know the man is dealing with a terrible receiving core of knuckleheads and a banged-up offensive line, but he's still supposed to be better than this, and there's something Just Plain Wrong about the fact that Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew aren't dynamite on dump-offs in the flat. This Jags' team quit weeks ago, and needs the cleansing power of fire. That, and they'll miss Matt Jones.
Packers 24, Jaguars 17
DETROIT at Indianapolis (-17.5)
Welcome to the most obvious suicide pick in the history of late-season suicide pools. You've got a comically inept franchise that will become the first 0-16 team in NFL history. They are on the road against a veteran Colts team that hasn't lost in months, always edges out terrible teams, and finally put up a big point blowout last week against the woeful Bengals. It's the only favorite of more than fourteen points that's on the board, and the other team that's favored by that much was absolutely dead in the water two weeks ago (that's Philadelphia in the MNF spot against Cleveland).
So why on earth am I expecting the Lions to cover?
Well, the Colts *still* aren't all that right. The Lions are by no means good, but in Kevin Smith and Calvin Johnson, they have two weapons that will be on this team when they are just ordinarily bad again. Seventeen points is a lot to cover for a team that hasn't had a breakout game from top wideout Reggie Wayne in forever, splits the carries to conserve #1 RB Joseph Addai, and will be taking every possible shortcut to getting some rest in the stretch run since they won't have a bye.
The way you destroy the Lions is how the Titans did it -- with a suffocating defense and a run until they quit, no mistakes offensive attack. Neither of those quite describe the Colts. Don't expect drama, but it also won't be utter comedy, either.
Colts 34, Lions 20
WASHINGTON (-7) at Cincinnati
If the Bengals just weren't such godforsaken quitters with an utterly hopeless QB, this would be a fine place to go for the upset. The 'Skins have to know they have nothing really left to play for, and with Clinton Portis and Jim Zorn getting into each other this week, it's Distraction Time in DC. The Bengals are actually much less awful against the pass, so if this one comes down to Jason Campbell throwing it all over the yard, a cover is not impossible; remember, they did that against the Jets and Cowboys earlier this year on the road, albeit with a less pathetic QB than Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. They also covered the line in the tie that we shall not speak of.
Despite a surprisingly early season burst, the denizens of the District are who we thought they were: a .500 or worse team, the clear #4 in the NFC East, with a talented but underachieving QB in Jason Campbell and an older first-time coach that seems to be in over his head. It took longer to get here then we might have anticipated, but we got here just the same.
Anyway, if the Bengals didn't already have their win for the year, and if they weren't all trying to get Marvin Lewis to never be hired in the NFL for any position ever again, I'd be tempted to go for the home dog. But that "are who we thought they were" thing goes both ways, and there's a reason why the home team has been outscored by sixty combined points in the last two weeks. (That reason is because they stink *and* they've quit. Magical combination, that.)
Redskins 27, Bengals 13
Tampa Bay at ATLANTA (-3)
Are the Panthers really as good as they looked on MNF? Did the Bucs just play a terrible game on defense? I'm inclined to think more of the former, just because it's December, they are tired, and what the Panthers did to them wasn't so much gaping holes as it was busted arm tackles. Getting beaten at the line on the road is bad enough, but when you can't close or finish in space, you're looking old, slow and in the way. And Atlanta might have better, or at the very least comparable, skill people.
Tampa probably will still make the playoffs; such is the power of a San Diego / Oakland home finish. But this game is looking a lot like what just happened to them last week, since they are on the road against a team with a live crowd, two solid running backs, and one WR that almost always gets his numbers despite being the only guy on the team you need to cover. Atlanta's defense isn't as good as Carolina's, but Matt Ryan is better than Jake Delhomme. Oh, and just because in the league where I have him, I was on a bye... count on Antonio Bryant to follow up on his 200 yards and 2 touchdowns game with 60 and zero. Some things, I just know.
Falcons 24, Buccaneers 16
SAN FRANCISCO (+6.5) at Miami
Oh, those frisky Niners! Mike Singletary probably locked up his 2009 contract extension last week with a surprisingly easy home win against the reeling Jets, and now he goes for the AFC East hat trick against a Dolphins team that probably had this one penciled in as a walkover a month ago. The line is inflated from the conventional wisdom of West Coast team travel woes, but that didn't stop the Niners in Buffalo two weeks ago, and I'm expecting another road cover, if not an out and out upset.
For the Dolphins, they continue to be relevant in playoff conversations by working out must wins against bad teams. But I can't help but think that they've already peaked for the year, back when they were the only team running the Wildcat formation. Ronnie Brown hasn't been nearly as electric as he was earlier in the year, and Chad Pennington is like a good middle reliever who is stretched to start games -- you can get away with it for a while, and maybe even ride a hot streak for half a year, but eventually, his lack of stuff is going to cost them. Probably not this week, though. Unless you've got them to cover.
Oh, and this just in... Dolphins LB Joey Porter continues his goal of being the least likable man in the NFL (now that Rodney Harrison is done) by standing up for Plaxico Burress and his need to illegally carry an unlicensed firearm. You see, athletes need their guns so, so much that they don't need to follow the same laws as everyone else. You might not to want to ask Joey for an autograph, unless you are wearing Kevlar.
Dolphins 24, Niners 20
Buffalo at NEW YORK JETS (-7)
Which team wants it least? Buffalo showed the good people of Toronto just how lucky they've got it with CFL ball in a snoozefest loss to the Dolphins that reminded everyone just how much they don't want to watch J.P. Losman. Oh, and the crowd was more or less neutral, with tons of vacationing Fish fans. Yay, karma! Meanwhile, the Jets continued their criminal neglect of an effective running game in a beatdown at the hands of the Niners in Candlestick. Oh well, at least no one in New York is going to make that Meadowland Super Bowl hype anymore.
In this game, you'd have to think that J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS Fan will take matters into his own hands and boo Saint Brett into morose check downs and handoffs. Or that head coach Eric Man E. Super Genius will finally wake up and realize that his offense needs to revolve around Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, especially when both of his WRs have utterly disappeared against weak defenses in the past two weeks. Jericho Cotchery is earning a place on my Never Own Again fantasy player list, along with Torry Holt, Reggie Wayne and Jeremy Shockey. On defense, the concern has to be stopping Marshawn Lynch, since those Lee Evans eruptions happen a lot less infrequently these days; if you are scared of Trent Edwards, it's only in comparison to Losman. The home team gets well and deluded here.
Packers 34, Bills 16
TENNESSEE (-3) at Houston
A highly interesting game for a 6-7 team that's doing a lot more than playing out the string. After a landmark win last week in Green Bay, the Texans are looking downright frisky, with the top 3 skill players of Slaton, Johnson and Schaub looking like keepers. Meanwhile, the Titans clinched the division last week, don't appear to be in terrible danger of losing the #1 seed, and could be poised for a road letdown game, especially if the Titans pull that I-AA Battled Red Catsuit thing again. Hence, the small line.
But what people are forgetting here is that the Texans' defense really isn't very good, which is going to make them stack the line to stop the Titan running attack... and when that happens, you give Kerry Collins all day to stretch the field and, maybe, find Justin Gage for a long one or two. They proved that they could win that way on the road in Chicago a month ago, and they'll do it again here. It will entertain few people, but the Texans will cover.
Titans 24. Texans 16
Pittsburgh at BALTIMORE (-2)
Grand Theft Football was committed last week at home for the Steelers, who rode a dominant second-half defense and the traditional December gift giving of Tony Romo to a tight win over Dallas. Now, they get the tough and tenacious second place team with ambition in Baltimore in their continuing saga to try to make the playoff schedule easier than the regular season.
For the Ravens, the only thing that seems to be capable of stopping them is their own offense. All of the points allowed in last week's mule kicking of Washington came off short fields than to offensive miscues. After the offense had made the game interesting, the team finally did what good teams do at home with a lead; ran it down the throat of the opponent with Lorenzo Neal blocking for LaRon McClain, and after a dozen or so of those plays, the play-action touchdown to Derrick Mason could have been executed by just about every quarterback in the league. Maybe coach John Harbaugh is keeping McClain fresh for the playoffs with his pointless use of team cancer Willis McGahee. Either that, or he's just giving the Steelers a lot of hope for this match-up.
The real problem for the road team here is that, well, the Ravens are *good* at rushing the quarterback, and against teams like that this year, the Steelers have done things like give up double-digit sack totals and had Big Ben been unable to finish the game. I'm not expecting a mirror replay of that game. Oh, wait... actually, I am. (Oh, and if there is any bet to make here with confidence, it's the under.)
Ravens 16, Steelers 13
DENVER (+7.5) at Carolina
How enthused are fantasy sports honks about owning a Carolina running back for this matchup? Denver has only recently gotten its D back in this column, and with Champ Bailey expected to provide some measure of help against Steve Smith, the onus will fall (as onuses always do) to Mssrs. Williams and Stewart, who merely combined for 300 yards and 4 touchdowns against a presumably good Buccaneer defense on MNF. Add that to Denver having to travel for the game and the peculiar desire on the part of all AFC West observers to insist that Dammit, The Chargers Aren't Out Of This Yet, and it's a growing consensus for the home team.
HOWEVAH, as Screaming A. Smith might say (look him up on the Internets, kids, he was a programming genius)... I'm going the other way here, despite the fact that Denver RB is right up there with Spinal Tap Drummer in terms of job security. You might have noticed in the game where Carolina was running like crazy that the Bucs, of all people, were moving the ball fairly well via the air. Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall are a lot better than Jeff Garcia and Antonio Bryant, and with Bailey giving the Broncos a chance to stack the line against the run, I'm liking the road dog cover here. Besides, teams coming off big MNF wins tend to struggle the next week, especially late in the season where recovery time is critical.
Panthers 27, Broncos 24
SAN DIEGO (-5.5) at Kansas City
Happy days are here again in LoCal, where a dominating win over the Raiders and the eternally amusing state of the Worst Division There Ever Was (unless, of course, you are an NFC West devotee) has the home team thinking that the Norv Stretch Drive is going to kick in any second now. The Chiefs continue to provide some value for roto players, but no one else, and while they historically own the Chargers at home, this isn't the run or lose team they've usually provided heartbreak to. If Turner wasn't Turner, he'd be giving many touches to Darren Sproles now and enjoying the actual burst. If Herm Edwards wasn't Herm Edwards, he'd be moving on from Larry Johnson with all possible speed. And if you've got serious confidence in either of these glue factories, you're a better gambler than me...
Chargers 28, Chiefs 21
SEATTLE (+3) at St. Louis
What would you rather watch than this game? My list includes surgery, telenovelas without transcripts, backyard wrestling and braying conservative jackass theatre as to how everything that's happening in the markets is the fault of the guy who doesn't even have the job yet. All of these things will provide more low comedy (and titty) than a game for fantasy players who clearly aren't still alive in their leagues, because the big Stephen Jackson Payoff that happens in this game will be countered by the previous ten-plus games of blinding sadness.
For the road 'Hawks, Seneca Wallace to Deion Branch scared the Patriots senseless last week, and they've got to be liking their chances against Marc Bulger, who has gone into full Bobby Hoying mode of turtling up against any defensive pressure. With Donnie Avery hitting the rookie wall and Torry Holt running as if he was dragging a wall behind him, I think I'd be looking for a comfy spot on the turf, too. The home crowd in St. Louis will make the Seahawks think it's a game played on a neutral site. Like, say, a warehouse.
Seahawks 20, Rams 10
Minnesota at ARIZONA (-3)
Curious game here. The Vikings need it more than the Cardinals, who have already wrapped up their trembly first round playoff loss by finally putting the NFC West out of its misery last week. But the Cardinals are better against the run than the pass, and teams that are traveling to the desert normally have problems, even when their quarterbacks aren't Gus Frerotte. The continuing mystery that is the Williams Wall Suspension could also swing this game large; at stake is whether Cardinals RB Tim Hightower will disappoint his fantasy owners or *really* disappoint them. Never has a rookie RB ran for so many touchdowns while breaking so many hearts; the man is making LemDale White sit up and take notice, at least until the rolls of fat make him collapse into the fetal position again.
I'm going with the home team here, mostly because I think Kurt Warner secretly wants another MVP award very badly. He's got to be smart enough to know that he's not going very far in the playoffs with that secondary, and that the next contract he signs will be his last. So look for 350 yards and 3 touchdowns as he pads his numbers against a Vikings defense that isn't as good as advertised.
Cardinals 34, Vikings 20
NEW ENGLAND (-7) at Oakland
Will this be the week that the Patriot Dream dies? Probably not, given just how awful the Raiders are despite games of actual production, but you know it's coming, just from their sudden lack of any kind of margin for error. Last week in Seattle, they were actually a fourth down conversion from the 2 away from a shocking loss to a Seahawk team that hasn't shown a pulse for weeks. It's not looking very good for them, but hell, it's the AFC East; someone not very good has to win it, them get stomped in the playoffs.
As for Oakland... um, what exactly do you say about a team that was supposed to be bad, and is, well, bad? Zach Miller seems to be a useful player. Johnnie Lee Higgins might be still drawing a paycheck in five years, and could be quite useful if he were in a place where the games mattered. Nmandi Asomugha has made me write his name enough times to get it done in only two minutes of cross-checking. They aren't as bad as other really bad teams. And until the owner is taken out and actual professional practices are used in the judging and training of football players, it's all exceptionally meaningless. No wonder Raider Fan is a whiskey drunk.
Patriots 27, Raiders 16
New York (+3) at DALLAS
Perhaps the most intriguing game of the week. The Cowboys have had more success than most against the Giants in the past few years, with Tony Romo throwing for big days and the defense not getting steamrolled by the Giants running game. Both starting quarterbacks have struggled in December, not that Giants Fan cares about such things anymore. Both teams have a big physical lead back who is coming in banged up. The only real difference here is that the Cowboys' Idiot WR is still on the field, while the Giants are spending their Plaxtime trying to get back the money he isn't earning after shooting himself accidentally. (I know, I know, it's still funny.) One also suspects that while they'd like home field throughout the playoffs, they aren't going to kill themselves over it, after winning the Super Bowl last year with repeat road wins.
Dallas needs the game more than the Giants, and has home field. They also could have easily won last week in Pittsburgh, which would have made their wildcard hopes a lot more realistic. They should get Marion Barber back, and I'm looking for him to run angry (which for Barber would make him damn near psychotic) as his answer to Jerry Jones questioning his toughness. Tashard Choice's good game in Pittsburgh might also give them the secondary punch they've been missing since Felix Jones went down, a surprisingly important injury for them. If LJ Smith was able to to do things to the Cowboys last week, count on Jason Witten doing more. And while the Giants will be better than they were last week, they are still down one good WR... and more importantly, also seem to be losing the effectiveness of their best LB in Antonio Pierce.
Cowboys 24, Giants 20
Cleveland at PHILADLPHIA (-14)
Andy Reid needs to resign! The reason why for this week is that he clearly overused Brian Westbrook in last week's beatdown against the Giants. 39 touches for the man he's always treated like a china doll was way too much, especially when you've got the two-headed monster of Lo Booker and Kyle Eckels just ready to go on the bench. Expect all of that to come back to haunt them against the Cromeos, who have Ken Dorsey throwing to Braylon Edwards, Steve Heiden and Donte Stallworth, when he's not handing it off to Jamal Lewis. This one has Trap Game written all over it...
And yes, I'm kidding, about everything but the Reid Resignation. Once you are under my bus, Fat Man, YOU STAY THERE. Eagles 34, Browns 13
Last Sunday afternoon as I waited for the Inevitable Death Flu that was a dead-solid lock for me once I saw the Shooter Kids and Wife go down, I took stock of my Sunday.
The points keeper auction league, my most important roto moment, was ringing up pinball points on Warner to Boldin, locking up the Worst to First recovery from Week One.
The work head to head league turned around as soon as Steve Slaton took a long one to the house; I'm very likely to make the playoffs there.
The friends head to head league was locked up as soon as Tony Romo rescued Marion Barber from 12 in the box purgatory. In that league, I'm on target for a first round bye.
The picks were trending on the positive side of .500 for another week, as I continued to do the Lord's work and pay the rent, like Joey Knish.
And then, there were my Eagles, gagging worse than I would a few hours later, looking positively stricken by anything as daunting as a 3rd and 1 against a terrible 1-8 team, in a Disgust Game for the Ages.
As a parent (and, heh heh, someone who has poor souls that report to me at the day job), I am frequently struck by the need to compartmentalize. Many (mostly younger) people don't get this; they react with full ferver and bomb-throwing fury to stuff that pisses them off, even if the rest of their day is going reasonably well. Hell, I did this myself, and can do it again at any moment, especially if I want to think about Andy Reid.
But you just can't do it. You've got to compartmentalize, limit the damage or irritation that you are going to feel from a certain negative stimulus. In short, delude yourself that it's no big deal.
Because, well, most of the time, it isn't.
As I write this, I'm on the train next to some Unbearable Douchebag of a guy who is having some major life moment on his cell phone. It's impossible not to hear his conversation, even as I focus on the writing; his train wreck of a relationship is on display for all to see. If my daughters ever get involved with someone like him, I'm not going to be very good about it. He just strikes me as a world-class manipulative prick. (And yes, yes, yes, I was this guy, I'm sure, in my teens, and so were you, too. Youth is wasted on the young, but crotchety is something we can all enjoy.)
This picks column also comes to you during a week where I'm swamped with work that's got to all get done before the Thanksgiving break despite being short-staffed, during a time when FTT really hasn't gotten the kind of site traffic that I've been hoping for, when the prospect of a performance bonus from the day job seems laughable not from my own effort or effectiveness but from the greater economic nightmare that's going on, and when I'm probably not going to be able to swing a vacation due to a lack of the green stuff.
It also comes with the full knowledge that, win or lose on Sunday, I'm losing with my Eagles. If they win, I feel stupid for throwing them under the bus, but only a little, because it's impossible to imagine that they're going to win with an effective running game, an effective run defense, and superior coaching.
If they lose, I'll have probably watched every snap, deluded myself into thinking that they might just be a play or two away from pulling it out (because, well, every NFL team is always just a play or two from pulling it out) and just generally wallowed in it, like a homeless man in his own sick. (Yes, last Sunday was quite memorable.)
On the other hand... if I win a roto league, it's worth significant coin to me. If the Eagles win the Super Bowl, it isn't.
No amount of money that I spend can make the Eagles win.
No amount of anger that I feel with their performance will make them get any better.
Hell, given the waiting list for Eagles seasons tickets and the NFL ratings, there's nothing that *any* Eagles Fan can do, unless their last name is Lurie.
And things could be worse, of course; we could root for the Raiders.
So screw 'em. I'm going to enjoy this season anyway.
So let's fire up something that RAWKS...
and let's dim the house lights and light the flash pots. It's time for the business of show.
(Because, well, I'm in my compartment. And Douchebag Guy just got up and left.)
And with that, on to the picks!
* * * * * Cincinnati at PITTSBURGH (-10.5)
The game you won't see (because it's on the odious NFLN) is a game you won't want to see. Pittsburgh got the hard-fought win it needed in the snow against the Chargers -- and didn't you know that game was going the Steel City's way as soon as you saw the precip? -- while the Bengals missed the upset win on a missed long field goal, the first missed long field goal against the Eagles in the last 45 years. (I exaggerate, but only just.)
The Bengals tend to play well in this inter-divisional matchup, but they don't have the defensive line to cause the Steelers real problems, and since this is one of the five games a year that Willie Parker is healthy, expect the home team to be early and often.
Finally, there's this. Do you really want to trust Ryan Fitzpatrick to cover any number on the road? Steelers 31, Bengals 10
Houston at CLEVELAND (-3.0)
Houston actually led in the second half against the still-not-great Colts, but squandered the opportunity as Peyton Manning picked them apart en route to 33 points. It tells you just how good Manning was that the Texans could only get the ball to Steve Slaton 14 times; it also tells you how good he is that he turned that into 156 yards and a second half lead.
I really wanted to take the Texans in this game, especially since the Browns have the short week and an unfortunate loyalty to the old and slow Jamal Lewis. But Sage Rosenfels on the road is just not something I can do. Deluded Browns Fans will realize that, no, everything would not have been better had they only started Brady Quinn all year, but it won't happen this week. (I'd be a lot more impressed with him if he didn't look ready to soil himself whenever the defense brings pressure in the red zone.)
Cleveland 26, Texans 20
San Francisco at DALLAS (-10.0)
Look, the only way the Cowboys aren't winning this game is if they spend the entire game throwing just to Owens, so he can be all happy with a Vengeance Game against his original team, with lots of spikes on the 50-yard star. And... as painful as it is for me to admit this... even Wade Phillips isn't that stupid.
(Besides, Jerry Jones is going to insist on throwing some balls to Roy Williams, too, so that the announcers can talk about how smart he is. Jerry is an absolute regular season genius.)
For the Niners, expect turnovers from Shaun Hill, frustration for Frank Gore, and lots of reaction shots and thinly veiled hopes from the announcers for a Singletary meltdown and de-pantsing. The final score will be embarrassment enough.
Cowboys 38, Niners 13
Tampa Bay at DETROIT (+8.5)
You've got to admire the Lions; they aren't losing every game by the same way. Last week, they took another early lead, and considering how badly the Panthers' Jake Delhomnme have played in the last few games, many suicide pool players were probably gripping hard. But they decided to fold like a wet noodle against the run game, and soon, everything was back to normal.
Meanwhile, the Bucs rode Jeff Garcia's Mario-esque Scamper Power to a grindy little 19-13 win over the Vikings at home. At 7-3, they are right in the thick of things in the NFC South, and a very good bet for a wild-card spot.
So why am I taking the Lions to cover again?
Call it a hunch. Or consider the fact that the Bucs are going to have to rely on an odd committee of running backs, with nominal starter Earnest Graham done for the year, Warrick Dunn about to show the world why he doesn't get starter carries any more and Cadillac Williams always broken-down. Garcia never goes downfield, which allows even this bad defense to look a little better at home, since they don't have to defend more than fifteen yards down the field. Add that up to the occasional flash of competence from the Lions' running game (Kevin Smith will survive 2008, which isn't something you will say of too many of his teammates), and the fact that Daunte Culpepper now has had three weeks of practice to throw the ball up high to Calvin Johnson...
Well, it's hard for any team to go winless.
They might still, but this is smelling like another heartbreaking cover to me.
Bucs 17, Lions 16
NY Jets at TENNESSEE (-4.5)
Not only are the Titans 10-0, they've also covered the spread in nine out of their ten wins. And yet, here they are again, with a low number at home against an overrated opponent, just providing the same kind of borderline guaranteed payoff that you were getting last year from the Perfectriots. Meanwhile, all they've done in the last two weeks is win with an air show, as Kerry Collins resuscitated Justin Gage from all of those Deep Sleeper lists that he was on during the preseason. If we had only been more patient.
The Jets, of course, had their best win of the year on the road in New England, where Saint Brett triumphed over age, adversity, his tragic flaws and nay, even Death Itself. In the long run, always put your money on the Reaper. Or, at least, on Favre throwing road picks against teams that provide pressure with their front four.
Titans 20, Jets 13
Buffalo at KANSAS CITY (+3.0)
Anyone who watched the MNF game and honestly thinks that Trent Edwards has a future in football with anything but a clipboard... please take off your underwear, and wear it on your head. Your personal PR needs the upgrade.
The Chiefs have become sneaky, thanks to the pulse that Tyler Thigpen has given them, and despite their 1-4 road record (and 1-9 overall), just might be ready to escape 1-AA status. Either that, or Edwards is shoving the Bills in. Either way, I'm taking the home team, who also have the benefit of the full week.
Chiefs 27, Bills 20
BEARS at St. Louis (+8.5)
Ah, over-reaction... your key to NFL gambling goodness. On the heels of a thorough crushing from the Packers on the road last week, your betting dollar actually finds less than a double-digit cover number against a Rams team that, after a brief mid-season wake-up call under interim coach Jim Haslett, have gone back to that historically awful team that was giving us such hope for the 0-16 perfect stink job earlier in the year.
But hey, no worries, Rams Fan... Marc Bulger says he wants Haslett to return next year. Leaving one to wonder only this: who exactly wants Bulger to return next year?
Here's why you want the Bears here. Kyle Orton will shake the rust off. The Bears will get a big play out of the special teams. Bulger can't help from turning the ball over. Orlando Pace has decided it's better not to play again. Stephen Jackson won't be back this week. The Bears are actually pretty good, at least in comparison to NFC West swill. Matt Forte is going to run for 150 yards. Brandon Lloyd will get back involved.
Oh, and the Rams have spent the last two weeks being down 30 points at the half. Let's just say I'm comfy with the number here.
Bears 34, Rams 17
NEW ENGLAND at Miami (+2.0)
Oh, this one hurts. Miami's got everything lined up -- the schedule of de facto byes, the home field, the vengeance, the running game, and the trickiness that opened the floodgates on the Patriots' Season Of Relative Woe. (Their season of woe is, of course, going to involve a playoff berth and more positive moments than 20 other NFL teams. But far be it for me to make light of Their Pain.)
Now, I'd *love* for the Dolphins to win this game. It would more or less stick a fork in the Patriots' season, and it would also do a very large amount of damage to the Soup Err Gene Yuss reputation of Bill Belichick. Remember, the last time he saw this laundry, a snap from center to Ronnie Brown caused him and his defense to soil themselves repeatedly. If it happens again, it means his ability to scheme for teams left along with the videotape. I'll leave the rest of this as an exercise to the reader.
But anyway... it's just not going to happen. Miami's talent level just isn't there yet, as the last two weeks of narrow escapes against bad teams (seriously, they were a fourth and seven away from a home loss to Oakland last week) has shown. And finally, this -- Matt Cassel has gotten his sea legs, and is no longer an active liability. Sigh. Patriots 24, Dolphins 16
* * * * *
Time for this week's halftime commercial. (What, you haven't noticed this kind of thing in the picks column all along? You miss a lot.)
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And we now return you to the picks...
* * * * *
Minnesota at JACKSONVILLE (-2.5)
OK, so which Jags' team shows up this week -- the one that took the early lead against the undefeated Titans, who handled Detroit without breaking a sweat... or the team that folded the tents against Kerry Collins at home, and who lost to the Bengals?
Normally, you'd really hate the match-up for them, since the Vikings can take away the run and will just ride Adrian Peterson to a big day. But these aren't the Vikings we've been expecting all year; you can run against them more than you think, and they might lose both of their big Williams tackles to Nutritional Dubiousness any minute now, really. That kind of thing tends to wear on a man, even if you're still active.
Oh, and, um, Gus Frerotte on the road will make more mistakes than David Garrard at home.
Jaguars 20, Vikings 16
Philadelphia at BALTIMORE (-1.0)
Boy, do I have some legroom on the Donovan McNabb bandwagon! No one to question my choice of music, I can stop to pee whenever I want -- hell, I can pee in the damn thing, it kind of smells like that anyway. Sure, it's looking really old, tired and dumb this week, and the driver just admitted last week that he didn't know what glove compartments were, since he never had to use one before... but you've got to love the privacy. I think I'll light me up a big 'ol victory cigar that smells surprisingly like ass!
This bus isn't stopping for anything, much like the Ravens' running game at home, or the 60-plus passing attempts that Andy Reid will dial up this week in a cunning game plan that ex-Eagles coach Jim Harbaugh didn't have diagrammed in, well, 2002. It might even work, provided the Ravens somehow don't score for the first 20 minutes of game time, at which point this good 'ol bus actually stops stripping the clutch and grinding the gears.
But, um, don't bet on it. This will probably be one of those games that Willis McGahee decides he's healthy for.
Oh, and a small note to the dozens of men who might handle the ball for the Eagles in this game? If it's second down, and you are running for the sticks, but you're not sure you can make it, just fall down. Do not, for the love of God, get close. That way lies madness.
Ravens 24, Eagles 13
'akland at 'ENVER (-9.5)
The Resistable Force Meets The Movable Object! Here's what's on the line for both teams this week: the winner gets their first letter back. Major stakes!
'enver is well on their way to winning the Worst Division Ever, thanks to back to back wins over Cleveland and Atlanta on the road, and given how good the Falcons have been this year, you've got to respect that. As an Eddie Royal owner, I'm loving this game, because Jay Cutler will spend his evening avoiding Brandon Marshall (who will magically disappear thanks to the work of Nnemdi Allah Akbar Ademanjiad) and feeding my guy.
Oh, and if you're actually betting this game and thinking the Raiders can cover the number given their recent friskiness in Miami, please remember:
> Mike Shanahan's vengeance is eternal
> The Raiders will have 4,000 more feet of suck than usual, and
> Darren McFadden will not save them or your fantasy team this year.
Finally for the Raiders, um, I hear someone else is calling the plays now. We are well into the part of the movie in which Al Davis is inspecting 12-year-old boys in Raider jerseys inside his bunker, and preparing the suicide pistols. Now, if he could only find his Eva, though given his age and eye for talent, I'm sure anyone will do, really...
Broncos 38, Raiders 19
Carolina at ATLANTA (-1.0)
My favorite line of the week. You've got a Panther team that is never all that trustworthy on the road, a Falcon team that's smarting from their first home loss, and a game that the Falcons need a lot more than the Panthers. Add in the Delhomme Malaise (that's what you get for having a Frenchy name, Jake), the continuing value of Michel Turner, and a motivated Rowdy Roddy White (from spending a week watching the catch he didn't make that could have won the game for them), and I just couldn't like the home team any more.
Of course, since this is the NFC South, my pick will be horribly wrong. So, um, good luck with this.
Falcons 26, Panthers 21
NY GIANTS at Arizona (+3.0)
The marquee game of the week, and I'm not getting fooled again. All hail our Giant Overlords! You are foolish to pick against them! Eli Manning is the best Manning in the history of Mannings! They rush the passer better now that all of their star pass rushers are gone! They are Road Beasts to End All Road Beasts! And I am so not taking this pick as a twisted reverse jinx in a futile hope to extend rooting interest in the NFC East for another week!
(Um, seriously? The Cardinals don't run the ball well enough to keep Kurt Warner from facing big pressure in this game. When Jebus's QB faces big pressure, he turns the ball over. The Cardinals' secondary is not good, and if Frank Gore doesn't trip on the 2 yard line two weeks ago, they would have lost to a horrible team at home. The Giants aren't horrible. This line is a serious value; you may not get the Giants with this few points again this year. Do not fear Eli's pattern of late-season suckery; everything is changed now that he's a Super Bowl God. Go nuts.)
Giants 34, Cardinals 24
Washington at SEATTLE (+3.5)
The wheels of the Redskins' bus came off last week, and while this looks like an obvious get-well present for the homecoming Jim Zorn, the Seabags' showed a little friskiness at home last week with the return of Matt Hasselbeck. I like the home 'dog here, as they've got a defense that's a little better than you might think at home.
Besides, the Ghost of Sean Taylor is still in this building, and, um, he kinda sucks.
Seahawks 24, Redskins 21
INDIANAPOLIS at San Diego (-2.5)
Bill Parcells is fond of saying that you are your record; by the end of the year, all of the good and bad bounces have worked out, and there just isn't anything more to say about it. So let us consider, slowly and carefully, your 4-6 Chargers. They are 1-5 on the road. They are 1-1 after the bye, when LaDanian Tomlinson was supposed to be all healthy again. They've lost to the Bills and Saints, Broncos and Panthers, Steelers and Dolphins. They have played two good games this year, against the Patriots and Jets. They can't rush the passer, are on their second defensive coordinator, and are two games back in the Worst Division Ever.
Now, are the Colts really ready to put a beat down on them? No. Not when the Colts actually had to work and sweat to beat the Texans, and it's not as if Indy doesn't have a host of issues of their own. But while the Colts have found ways to win for the last three weeks, that really doesn't describe the 'Bolts. Give me the road team, under the theory that in a close game, I'd rather have Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy, rather than Philip Rivers and Norv Turner. They may be doing it with mirrors, but you can fool infants with mirrors, and Norv is prone to eating paste. Colts 24, Chargers 21
GREEN BAY at New Orleans (-2.5)
You know the really awful thing about MNF this year? The games have, for the most part, been too good to ignore. This will be another, with the road Packers needing to shed their usual dome jitters against the usually raucous N'Awlins crowd. I like the Pack here, if only because Ryan Grant is looking like the best back in football right about now, and the fast Superdome track and slow home team linebackers really aren't going to bother him. Besides, the Saints keep trying to get Jeremy Shockey involved, when they really need to just realize that it's not working, everyone hates him, and the team is better off throwing to Billy Miller. Yeah, that's just not something they were expecting to see this year.
A thought while mulling over the wackiness that is the NFL world where the Arizona Football Cardinals have their terrible division wrapped up by Thanksgiving, just like the old Ram teams used to do, with the old Ram quarterback...
What would a terrible NFL season look like? I'm thinking that it would have five components.
1) A terrible (and more importantly, disappointing) season for your favorite team.
Well, mine is 0-3 in the division, can't stop the run (the single most nauseating way to lose on defense), and short of a remarkable turn of events, appears to be drawing dead for the playoffs. This, after seeming to be one of the best five teams in football on several occasions this year. Disappointing.
2) Coin-flip resolutions.
Last week in Minnesota, the Vikings held on for an important home win against the Packers when a 52-yard field goal drifted wide. This, after giving up touchdowns on special teams and on Gus Frerotte's TAInt.
Thanks to the Bears losing to the Titans, they are right in the division race.
Last night in Arizona, the Niners would have won had Frank Gore been able to remain upright after a defensive tackle grazed him with one hand. Instead, he tripped, and the Cardinals had a four-game lead in the division. All hail our new Cardinal Overlords!
3) Boring teams at the top.
Right now, we're staring right down the barrel of a Titans-Giants match. Over-under on punts: 20. Not since Tony Siragusa thugged his way to the Lombardi Trophy has a champion looked so unpalatable.
4) Fading ratings.
Nope. Blame/credit fantasy leagues.
5) Faltering attendance.
Not a problem unless you are Bengal Fan, and even if you are, you just use the Web to fill the place with Road Team's Fans. Sell the tickets and they will come.
So, is the NFL, for lack of a better term, recession-proof? It certainly seems so, though one wonder about the relative wisdom of defying basic economic laws. After all, (some? many? most?) people thought that the housing market was receession proof, that credit markets would never get to a point where they'd be allowed to fail, that the Republicans would hold Congress and the Presidency for decades...
What it speaks to, really, is the NFL's essential and incredible conservatism in limiting the access to their product. In a marketplace where, last year, every single team sold out every single game for a two-month period despite the skyrocketing cost of going to a game, the NFL played no more games, launched no new teams, and didn't launch any satellite leagues.
Imagine any other business that would have done the same.
Now, imagine that you are a shareholder of that business. You'd be bent at the lack of expansion, wouldn't you? Hell, you'd probably be worried about some competitor coming in and taking your overflow interest.
I'm not going to give them credit for incredible foresight in this; I think they are just complacent rich snobs who are enjoying their status as the lock low communists/ monopolists of American sport. But it's hard to say that, given the current economic climate, that it's the wrong play.
In about 600 days, LeBron James could become a free agent.
There are NBA franchises -- yes, plural -- that appear ready to do little more than sit around and wait until that day.
They will, if history is any precedent, be wasting their time.
Yes, LBJ likes New York and the big lights. Sure, he's friends with Jay-Z, who's connected with the Nets. Maybe Brooklyn (specifically, Park Slope) is that hipster-cool that he'd want to be there.
But honestly, if you're going to New York, why aren't you going to the Garden, especially now that Mike D'Antoni has the Knicks running and gunning?
Or, for that matter, Detroit, where Joe Dumars has shown that, so long as Darko Miličić isn't involved, he knows what to do with a draft board?
There's also, of course, Dallas, where Mark Cuban probably isn't going to let the best young player in the world go without a bid... or Portland, where Paul Allen could say the same... or, well, his hometown Cavs, who might not give him the best chance to win a title, but will be able to pay him more than anyone else... and this is all assuming that some European team doesn't just back the truck up and give him an astounding amount of money.
By the way, I'm missing out on at least five other scenarios here. (Bulls, anyone?)
You see, LBJ is a marvelous prize... but putting all of your eggs in his basket is just a bad bet. Tank to get him and clear cap space, and you make your franchise look like a loser. Pretending that he won't just stay home (especially if, say, Mo Williams works out, and he gets any kind of help from his bigs) ignores what any number of NBA superstars have done for years -- which is to say, keep the market guessing, but eventually take the maximum money at home.
Mind you, there are many, many reasons to be clear in 2010 -- it's also the year that you could be chasing Paul Pierce, Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, Yao Ming, Pau Gasol, Kobe Bryant, Dwayne Wade, Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh... and that's just the cream of the crop in Unrestricted Land.
But it's funny... the closer you get to the deadline, the more that teams are going to lock these guys up. No one, of course, wants to see big talent walk without a return. Big talent, for the most part, hates the idea of going all the way to the river before getting paid, when a rolled ankle or blown knee at any moment before payday could mean they've outsmarted themselves out of hundreds of millions of dollars. (Especially when the bad economy has to, at some point, start picking off the weaker franchises. Even billionaires notice when they lose big chunks of money.)
And that's why NBA championships are won in the draft, or at the trading table... but not the free agent market. But feel free to obsess over the market year that will finally change all of that.
After a 2 week hiatus, The Truth is back to throw some picks against the wall and see what sticks. It's been a disappointing year spotting a record of 21-20. So before Obama takes office and taxes the bejesus out of The Truth, let's make some coin! To get back to a better record we're throwing out 14 picks this week. No analysis needed. Just trust The Truth.
WASHINGTON (AdAge.com) -- Major League Baseball has moved back the scheduled start time of any game 6 of the World Series so Fox can also air the half hour Barack Obama spot on Oct. 29.
A network spokeswoman confirmed the buy and said MLB had agreed to the network's request for the delay.
Fox now joins CBS and NBC in airing the half hour program, whose content the Obama campaign has declined to describe. The decision means that the Obama campaign is now spending close to $3 million to air the program from 8 to 8:30 p.m. that night on at least three networks. ABC didn't immediately return a message asking whether it too has now agreed to a buy, a move which would create an unprecedented roadblock of the nation's biggest commercial networks.
What's notable here, really, is that Barack Obama seems to be the last company in America to have money to spend on ads.
Say it with me, folks... Land. Slide. Land. Slide. Land. Slide...
I hope you jumped all over the winning picks last week as The Truth showcased his truthiness going 5-1. We're still yo-yoing through the season at 18-14. The road picks seem to be a sweet spot and shot probably stick to that format, but too many great games to pass up this week under that format. The Truth is bringing 8 games your way this week and one lock of the week special. Should be a great weekend for games.
Texas +7 vs. Oklahoma (in Dallas): Both teams are 5-0 heading into the Red River Rivalry. And both teams are perfect ATS this year. I like OU to win, but not by 7.
Kentucky +3 vs. South Carolina: I actually like UK as a 1 TD favorite here. I think it's actually a good thing that they didn't almost beat Bama at Bama last week. It will leave them hungry and shouldn't have a let down against the Gamecocks.
Mizzou -14 vs. Oklahoma State: What is it with the Big 12 and 5-0 teams? Two more undefeated teams that score points in bunches. Why is the spread so large? OSU is a pretender and Mizzou should expose them as such come Saturday. The line is where it should be so you'll probably see money split pretty evenly between these teams.
Georgia -12.5 vs. Tennessee: I like UGA by 2 TDs here with the Vols a dismal 1-4 ATS this year. Not only are the Vols not good this year, they just can't score. They squeaked out a win at home against Northern Illionois last week 13-9. At least with them not scoring, it cuts down on the times their band plays the God awful "Rocky Top."
Arizona State +28 vs. USC: Sanchez is banged up for the Trojans. But it shouldn't keep them from beating down on the Sun Devils. I just don't think it is 28 points worth of beat down.
Penn State -6 @ Wisconsin: Another undefeated team in Penn State who is 6-0. Not sure about this line. I like PSU by alot more. Wisconsin is 0-2 in the Big Ten. Where is the Joe Pa love? Penn State averages over 500 yards a game and gives up 250 yards.
LSU +6 @ Florida: Okay - if you want to avoid one of The Truth's picks, this is probably it. LSU is 1-2 ATS this year and 4-12 ATS against conference opponents the past 3 years. Florida is 2-0 ATS the past three years. This one is just a hunch.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Vanderbilt -2 @ Mississippi State: Where is the love people? My Commodores are undefeated and leading the SEC East standings. This is the best sub-conference in America. They just beat Auburn for the first time since the Eisenhower administration so I get the "fluke" references. But they're playing MSU. Come on! I don't care that the Bulldogs put up a good fight against LSU last week. I'm saying Vandy by 50! Lay two units here. And no, there is no room on the Vandy Fanwagon, you haters.
Wow. 1-4 last week, 1-5 when you count on the double bet. This lackluster showing brings the Truth season to 13-13 in total bets. Pretty pathetic by the Truth's standards. I'm either nailing it each week or on the receiving end. All you have to do is figure out which and you could clean up. Gotta change the mojo again so we're road tripping. 6 road teams to choose from. I'm predicting a 5-1 week.
Texas Tech -7 @ Kansas State. I'd be willing to lay up to 13 or 14 points here so it feels like a value bet. Tech scores at will and K State's D looks a little limp this year.
Kansas -11.5 @ Iowa State. Another spread that surprised me. I thought it would be around 18 or so. More value. The Jayhawks are 12-4 ATS with conference opponents the past 3 years so look for that trend to continue.
Illinois +2 @ Michigan. Yes, I'm picking against Michigan again this week. Unlike Wisconsin, Illinois has a pretty good offense and Michigan has proven over the past 2 years they can't handle an athletic QB. The Juice will be loose in Ann Arbor.
Mizzou -10.5 @ Nebraska. It's a pity both these teams can't lose. But this spread is WAY too low. I could see Mizzou as a 3 TD favority. Their offense is just that good. I'm not sure the Mizzou punter will see the field on Saturday.
Texas -13 @ CU. I'm a bit nervous about this one. Would have loved to see this spread at 10. But UT is 4-0 against the spread this year so let's hop on board.
Ohio State -1 @ Wisconsin. Beanie should be playing the entire game and Wisconsin showed last week they have some issues on offense. I should point out that Ohio State is 0-4 ATS this year. But don't you want to be there when they cover?
The Truth is The Truth again after a perfect week 4. I hope you cashed in on last week's picks. We're going to ride our mojo into week 5 and make everyone some coin again. We here at FTT are givers. So hop on board and enjoy the ride. We're now 12-8 for the season after picking 5 games last week and telling you to double up on the Virginia Tech game. The Truth has another Lock of the Week double down special for you. The giving, it hurts!
Louisville -3.5 vs. UCONN. You think I'm crazy to bet against a 4-0 team? Let me share with you who UCONN has beaten this year: Hofstra, Temple (beat them in OT), Virginia (stinks) and Baylor. And you can start you weekend early by watching a game tonight that you otherwise wouldn't.
Michigan State -8.5 @ Indiana. I'm tempted to recommend the over here at 51. Both teams can put up points. But IU's lost by 3 TDs to Ball State last week leads me to believe they won't hang with MSU past the first.
Purdue +1 @ Notre Dame. Is my hatred for Notre Dame obvious? I put that aside when laying down coin though. ND is terrible. Their only wins were against even worse teams, Michigan and San Diego State. Purdue looks solid this year and barely lost to Oregon in OT. I like Purdue by a TD here, so again Vegas, thanks for the point.
Miami -7.5 vs. UNC. Miami is perfect ATS this year and kicked Texas A&M's teeth in at College Station last week. The Tar Holes aren't bad, but I don't think they hang with the Canes in Miami.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Wisconsin -6.5 @ Michigan. What can I say. Bet against Michigan in every game where they aren't getting 14 points. They cannot move the ball. Lay 2 units on this game.
As a writer of a picks column, it's my duty to bitch and moan about how the first bye week just cripples the NFL schedule. It always seems to take out some of the most intriguing teams, and to leave nothing but dog games in its wake. Waah, waah, waah.
But really, I don't have that much of a problem with it, other than to look suspiciously at the timing if it doesn't seem to work out just perfectly for my Eagles.
The reason why, of course, is because with fantasy football and picks, it really doesn't matter if the games are good or not.
Take Falcons-Panthers, for instance; it should be a slugging yawnathon between two teams that, if they find themselves in a playoff game with a good opponent and the world hasn't changed a lot, should get rolled. If you watch it, it'll probably be tedious.
But with your intriguing fantasy plays in the game -- can Michael Turner give you points when he isn't playing against a terrible defense? Will Steve Smith become, well, Steve Smith again? -- it's fascinating. Just so long as you don't watch it too closely.
FTT continued its three-week reign of hard-core, triple penetration profitability by going 10-6 ATS last week, our third straight +.500 week, and our second of three where you really would have made some nice coin. Can the gravy train continue? Well, who the hell knows, really?
However, on one thing we can depend -- the search traffic for this picks column is going to really, really disappoint some people.
On to the picks!
(As always, your home team is caps, and the pick is in italics.)
Minnesota at TENNESSEE (-3)
And here we come to Bye Week Bitch Fest #1, aka the idea that Frerotte vs. Collins (what is this, the mid-90s NFC East?) would be one of the more intriguing games in week 4... and that said game would have huge implications to the playoff race. Yes, folks, QBs just aren't that important, at least not in games when neither team really has one.
I'm going with the road underdog Vikings here. Do I feel good about picking Gus Frerotte on the road against an undefeated Titans team, especially one that's been dominant defensively? Well, of course not. But if you were to look closely at the Titans' win last week against the Texans, you'll see some cracks in the foundation. They let Steve Slaton, Houston's rookie RB, run for 116 yards in a breakout game. If it weren't for some bad moments in the red zone, the Texans would have given the Titans everything they can handle.
This week, they get Adrian Peterson, who I'm thinking is just a little bit better than Slaton, especially now that he's had a little more time to heal a balky hamstring. They also face a Viking defense that's damn near impossible to run against. Finally, I keep thinking that (a) the Titans are not really ready to start 4-0, and (b) the NFC is just better than the AFC now, and that you need to keep things like that in mind in tight games. (As for Frerotte... I'm trying hard not to think about the media mouth jobs he'll be getting after saving the Vikings season by getting them back to .500. Eww.)
Vikings 20, Titans 16
Denver at KANSAS CITY (+9.5)
Denver is, on offense, a dead ringer for last year's Patriots team, a fact that the guy that drafted Jay Cutler in your fantasy league probably hasn't stopped mentioning. Defensively, they've been worse -- a lot worse -- so no one has accused them of running up the score or being anything but lovable.
This week, they get the I-AA Chiefs, who are burdened with a terrible "star" in Larry Johnson, a dream of getting *back* to Damon Huard, and a 2008 highlight film that will consist entirely of Tom Brady getting hurt.
I think Denver wins and covers just because I can't imagine the Chiefs keeping serve, even at home. I also think Denver gets a big lead and just tries to get out by taking time off with the running game, but all of that's beyond the point, unless you are playing the over. Denver wins and covers.
Broncos 28, Chiefs 13
San Francisco at NEW ORLEANS (-5.5)
The Saints keep losing targets -- two weeks ago, Marques Colston, last week, Jeremy Shockey -- while throwing out big offensive numbers. The Niners come off their second straight win (albeit a home job over the I-AA Lions) and a sneaking suspicion that they can contend this year, since, well, what the hell, it's just the NFC West. Someone's got to contend, after all.
My money is on the home town Saints, because I'm just not seeing this Niners team being able to operate in a road dome, and because the surviving Saints wideouts are actually still OK. Oh, and this Drew Brees guy is OK, too. Finally, this actual gambling tidbit... the Niners are 2-6 ATS on the road in their last 8 road games. That win in Seattle said more about the Seabags than it did about the Niners.
Saints 28, Niners 21
Arizona at NEW YORK JETS (-1.5)
The Jets are 2-6-1 in their last 9 at home ATS, and they also have the fun of flying back East with the short week after putting up numbers without consequence in a rolled over loss against the Chargers. The Cardinals continue their East Coast swing by moving north from Washington, where they were in the game until a bad no-call pick against the Redskins.
This Cardinals team should be better -- and isn't that a constant complaint of the past five years -- and against a Jets team that got torched by Phillip Rivers and the Charger targets last Monday, I'm looking for more of the same from Warner, Boldin and Fitzgerald. The Jets will also have more than a few chances against a Cardinals secondary that gave Jason Campbell a ton of opportunities last week, but I like the chances of the Cardinals defense to rebound better than I do the Jets, despite the slight Revenge Game motivation for one-time Cardinal Thomas Jones. Expect a shootout.
Cardinals 34, Jets 31
Green Bay at TAMPA BAY (-1)
The Packers come off a dispiriting home loss to the Cowboys, while the Bucs escaped Chicago with a pass-wacky win from the Lazarus-esque Brian Griese. Packer corner Al Harris will also miss this game, which makes all of those Tampa WRs you just picked up in your league *much* more entertaining.
I like the Pack here, as Ryan Grant slowly gets his fantasy owners off the ledge and Aaron Rodgers continues to show that he's a little bit more than a system QB, but it'll be more than a bit ugly. For the Bucs, they need to run the ball a lot better than they did last week to be a serious contender, because Griese will eventually show them why three other teams gave up on him. Including, well, them.
Packers 27, Bucs 20
Atlanta at CAROLINA (-7)
Matt Ryan and Michael Turner have been the biggest matchup plays in the NFL this year -- huge against the I-AA Lions and Chiefs, invisible against the actually in the NFL Bucs. This week, the yo-yo swings back to a competent NFL defense in the Panthers, and I'm counting on the pendulum doing bad things to the improbably first-place Falcons.
Look for Delhomme to Smith to make a stirring return, and for Ryan to struggle with game maintenance in the face of a fierce Panther rush. If you're picking a confidence game this week, take the Panthers (yes, even over Dallas), because there's never going to be a better time to take Carolina...
Panthers 28, Falcons 10
Houston at JACKSONVILLE (-7.5)
Two disappointing teams in the sudden train wreck that is the AFC South, and one of them will feel a whole lot better about life after this one. The Jags cut off Peyton Manning's escape win strategy last week in Indy, while the Texans folded late against the Titans, putting starting QB Matt Schaub's job in jeopardy.
I like the Texans to cover here as Schaub starts to enjoy life with a good rookie RB (Slaton) to keep the defense honest, especially given the Jags' historic tendencies to play to the opponent's level. As a matter of fact, given the Jags' offensive line injuries, I was even tempted to make this one an upset special... but, well, the Texans do have that disquieting tendency of falling apart late.
Jags 27, Texans 24
Cleveland at CINCINNATI (-3.5)
The very last chance, one suspects ever, for Derek Anderson to show that he wasn't just a flash in the pan. Even if he does, the Why Did Everyone Put Them In Prime Time So Much Browns will go back to killing their fantasy owners in the succeeding weeks, as their schedule is a mess. At least this week, their offensive line should dominate, but given that they haven't really done that all year, it's hard to expect them to flick the switch now.
As for Satan's Own Bengals, they almost pulled off a big-time upset last week in New York, and could look primed to finally break into the win column as well. Carson Palmer started to look like an NFL QB again, and Chris Perry gives them hope of a running attack that isn't just a case of reminiscing about when Rudi Johnson was good.
In a shootout game that will convince foolish people that both teams won't lose double-digits in games this year, give me the home team. Oh, and don't take the sell-high trade offers that you'll be getting from the people that drafted Ohio's Best on their teams this year. It won't work out well for you.
Bengals 35, Browns 31
San Diego at OAKLAND (+7.5)
Bettors love the Sunday trap game, where a home team rolls someone on MNF and then looks sluggish with the short week of work, especially when it's on the road. Those people are probably still avoiding the Raiders to cover, as the Chargers really just snapped back to form last week. (Besides, the Trap Game is mostly a myth -- you remember it when it happens, but forget all of the other times when the favorite rolls.)
Besides, the Raiders don't really (shh!) enjoy a home-field advantage; the locals have seen way too much bad football to give them support at this point, and when they fall behind, it gets eve uglier than usual. The Raiders lost a heart-breaker in Buffalo last week, and still have the bizarre Lane Kiffin Fired Or Not thing happening. Let's just say I don't like their chances to bounce back.
Finally, this: LaDanian Tomlinson has spent his entire career fattening up his numbers against the Raiders. His fantasy owners are expecting 3 TDs this week, and they'll get them.
Chargers 38, Raiders 17
Buffalo at ST. LOUIS (+8)
The second straight week where the Bills get a terrible opponent and a big money line. Will I get sucked in to the suck of St. Louis to cover, yet again? Well, why not -- it's only cost me money for two straight weeks and made me look like an idiot -- but this is just too many points for a road team in a dome that's been more lucky than good so far.
Expect the Rams to get a little juice from switching from Marc Bulger to Trent Green, simply because Green isn't turtling up for the sack every third throw like Bulger is right now... and also, because, well, he probably no longer has the ability to recognize fear after nearly being made brain-dead last year in Miami. The Rams will be winless last year, but the number's just too big.
Bills 31, Rams 24
Washington at DALLAS (-11)
Exposure time for the 'Skins, who step up in class after two straight weeks winning at home against average teams in New Orleans and Arizona. Dallas is the best team in football until injuries and chemistry prove to be their downfall, and they won last week in Green Bay despite not really playing all that well, especially on offense.
At home against a hated rival, expect them to turn up the jets a bit, then cover late with the offensive line exerting their will. It's a simple strategy, and it will work so long as they are healthy. (What's the opposite of knocking wood?)
Cowboys 38, Redskins 24
Philadelphia at CHICAGO (+3)
Maybe I'm missing something here. The Eagles have looked like one of the five best teams in football. The Bears are starting Kyle Orton. The Eagles put Ben Rothlesberger and Byron Leftwich on their ass eight times last week. The Bears... are starting Kyle Orton. The Eagles have completely shut down Willie Parker and Stephen Jackson, so Matt Forte shouldn't hold too much terror. Chicago... just gave up 400+ yards to Brian Griese at home.
It also doesn't help the home team's chances that Devin Hester is still sidelined. The Eagles' STs are better than they've been, but that doesn't mean (see Jones, Felix) that they can't be had. And, this just in: they are starting Kyle Orton. I like this spread for just the Eagles defense against the Bears offense.
Eagles 24, Bears 10
Baltimore at PITTSBURGH (-7)
The second of two night games where the outcome of the game is highly dependent on the presumed incompetence of one of the starting quarterbacks. Rookie Joe Flacco takes his game manager ways into Pittsburgh in an attempt to keep the surprising Ravens undefeated. I'm not seeing it, even for a Steelers offense that's going to be missing Willie Parker, and is still wondering what the hell happened to that offensive line last week in Philly.
I've got to say, this line is making me highly uncomfortable. Flacco has looked competent and composed, and the Steelers really had the air let out of the balloon last week. But when a home team wins, it usually covers... and it's not like the Ravens have skill players that fill you with fear. (At least, not since Todd Heap became, well, a heap.) Steelers 21, Ravens 13
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