205 drop: Top 10 live poker player types

Today's list could have easily gone much larger, but I have to leave something to the vibrant commenting community, don't I? I slay me. (And wonder, in my heart of hearts, if I'll ever get stupid enough about this game to go be a Main Event fish in Vegas for the WSOP. The answer is, of course, no, but not for the reason you think. Unlike say, my fixation on one day going to an Eagles Super Bowl win, the WSOP is an annual event, rather than a once in a lifetime one; the potential for getting that itch every year is way too great. Especially if I somehow cash. Anyway, go click...)

And just because I love you, Dear Reader, almost as much as I love hot lesbians, an extra dose of Jennifer Tilly that's probably NSFW. If she really wants to bluff someone out of a pot, she really should just recite this scene...

The Conference Finals Pick

Cleveland vs. Orlando

The case for Cleveland: Home court and the best player in the Association generally means a Finals appearance at least. Reasonably seasoned roster. Tremendous home court advantage this year. Sneaky talented, especially in the bench rotation, where useful parts like Joe Smith, Daniel Gibson and Wally Sczerbiak can do some things. Great defensive team, especially on the perimeter. Solid three point shooters who take advantage of the wide-open spaces that playing with LeBron James generates. It's hard to imagine James not getting the calls in the clutch here.

The case against: They have not been tested for more than a quarter at a time this year in this playoff; it's very possible that there is some paper tiger going on here. Have received too much rest for this time of the year. Head coach Mike Brown has demonstrated his ability to eat paste in crunch time against the Celtics and Spurs. If James ever misses time, gets in foul trouble or settles for unproductive three-point shooting, they can be had on offense. As an overwhelming favorite with rust, could get off on the wrong foot this series and be in real trouble. Are just 3-8 in the James Era against the Magic.

The case for Orlando: Have been the better team in both of their series this year, and have been extended only due to poor crunch time work. When they are hitting their threes, can beat anyone -- and frankly, make it look pretty easy. Cleveland has no good matchup down low for Dwight Howard on defense. In Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu, have definitive matchup problems for an opponent on offense. Stan van Gundy might have a tactical edge on Brown. For the first time in the playoffs, aren't really expected to win, so they could be playing with house money here.

The case against: Struggle in the half court when the threes aren't falling. Can be pressured with Rafer Alston at the point. Like everyone else in the Association, have no good matchups for James; could also be in real trouble to keep Mo Williams down, too. Might not have the front-court depth to compete, especially if Howard wears down or gets in foul trouble. Lewis and Turkoglu might give back everything they give you, and more, on defense. Won't have rest or home court, and are going against a team that just looks unstoppable right now. Have real issues holding a lead due to team-wide trouble at the free throw line; if they are going to pull the upset, they can't leave points on the table.

The pick: Cleveland in five. Orlando is much, much better than the Pistons and Hawks, but all that will mean here is that the Cavs will try harder, and win by a little less. This team is just too much in tune right now to give up more than a game.

Los Angeles vs. Denver

The case for Los Angeles: Best offensive talent in the post-season, especially up front. Huge coaching advantage in Phil Jackson vs. Furious George Karl. Some flakiness, but nowhere near the number of lifetime offenders as the opposition. For the first time in the playoffs, shouldn't get lit up too badly at the point guard position, since Chauncey Billups is more of a power point at this point in his career, and hence, a better match for Derek Fisher. After the Houston series against Shane Battier and Ron Artest, Kobe Bryant is going to feel like he's playing basketball in low gravity against Dahntay Jones, J. R. Smith, and maybe even Renaldo Blackman. Have ended Denver's season with regularity over the years.

The case against: Have been exposed as bipolar at best, and gutless at worse, in getting extended to seven games by an undermanned Rockets team. Have real problems guarding point guards and three point shooters. The scoring bigs can be taken out of the game by physical play, and Denver has the most physical bigs left in the playoffs. Won't have as much rest as their opponent, due to their own negligence. Up until the last game of the Rockets series, Andrew Bynum has looked lost. The bench, which seemed like a huge strength in the regular season, has given them little in the post-season. Soft as tissue paper; when your enforcer is your point guard, that's not a good sign, really.

The case for Denver: Playing with house money. Kenyon Martin and Nene, if they don't get whistled for everything, could really make Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol come up small, especially on the road. Have the rest advantage, and have to like their chances after watching those Rockets tapes. Carmelo Anthony is playing the best basketball of his life, and Billups is a borderline MVP candidate this year. It's hard to see the Lakers just putting the hammer down and crushing their opposition, and eventually that's going to cost them plenty against a quality opponent

The case against: That Kobe matchup is brutal for them. As this week's continued pissing match between Martin and Mark Cuban proves, the Nugget roster is not exactly devoid of meatheads; self-destruction is always possible. While Billups has been great at getting to conference finals, he's not exactly been to a huge number of NBA Finals; in crunch time, he tends to take the shot over better ideas like Anthony. Smith can take them out of their offense with highly dubious decisions. Bryant has, everr since the Eagle, Colorado fiasco, owned Denver at home.

The pick: Los Angeles in seven. They can be had, but in the final analysis, I just can't take the second-best coach and player, with home court. There's also the simple fact that if both teams play their best game, the Lakers win. But a Nuggets win would not shock me, at least not in the same way that, say, a Magic win would.

Bonus 205 Drop: Top 10 signs of sports gambling degeneracy

The bonus link today comes from me messing up the posting date on my 205 drop, probably as a side effect of my growing gambling addiction. (I keed, I keed -- it's a very persistent gambling addiction, rather than a growing one.)

Anyway, go see where you stack up on the list. I'd put even money on 6 or higher.

Blogrolling sets fires and creeps you out

Far be it for us to avoid the Stephen Strasburg hype. The College Baseball Blog does it better than most.

The Ghost of Wayns Fontes with the love for the Off Track Betting Parlor. Who doesn't love this place?

MLJ with the extremely depressing five-year recap of the MLB first round. What a waste. No wonder the good teams give up picks for free agents like water.

Minor league baseball -- it's fantastic! And by fantastic, I mean, really regrettable and kind of sad.

We're getting closer to legal online gambling, folks. You know, like grown up countries.

And you people wonder why I don't like hockey. It comes in black and white with creepy puppets! (But only if you are a Bernie Federko fan. Yes, I'm old.)

Come After Me

On the off chance that you read the blog, aren't on my e-mail list and want to come celebrate me finally becoming, after 40 years and 2 days, A Man... well, email me at dmt shooter at gmail dot com. (Aka, my 40th birthday.)

Inspiration, as always, comes from self-righteous college football coaches who are taking life far too seriously.



I especially like the fact that he got applause when he left. That's what you do when you are in the presence of a man -- you show some respect!

Anyway, your date is Friday, June 5, your place is an Atlantic City casino that has a poker room TBD later, and we will eat manly things, drink manly drinks, and make manly wagers. I'll hit you back late next week with the details.

(Oh, and the final word on this was given by the Shooter Wife, who told me not to spend too much on the hooker. When I shot down the idea of paying for it by asking her what I'd do after the first 14 minutes, her reply was "Tell her about your blog?" I married well.)

205 Drop: Top 10 fantasy sports killing managers

Today's drop over at 205 is pretty sports-related, just to keep giving different looks over there. Who will take down the title of most hated man in the world of gambling nerds? Oh, come on, like you couldn't guess from the image. Seriously.

The Poker Parent

More or less a transcript of a talk that I had with the eldest about boys (she's young enough to still talk to me about such things, thank heavens)...

"Well, it's like this. Should you stay in a hand if you've been dealt 2-7 off-suit?"

She looks at me. "Well, I do sometimes..."

I look at her. "But if you did that all the time, you'd lose, right?"

"Sure."

"It's the same thing in dating. If you fall in love with someone who you have nothing in common with, it's like playing 2-7 off-suit. It might work out for you; you could flop trip 2's or trip 7's, and you've got a great hand. But most of the time, that's not going to happen, and you're going to lose if the hand goes to the river."

She nods. My feeling of being a complete gambling degenerate is nicely balanced by the fact that she seems to be getting the concept.

"But if you fall in love with someone who you have a lot in common with, and for more than just because you think they are cute, it's like playing a pair of aces. It still might not work out, but you are just giving yourself more chances."

She nods, then gets distracted by something her younger sister does. I almost feel sorry for her future boyfriends, really. "I'm sorry, but now that I've gotten to know you better, I think you're King-8 suited, and I'm only dating really premium hands..."

Why You Don't Pay For Saves

Every year in every fantasy league, some guy overpays for saves, and almost always winds up losing his league over it. Fantasy analysts say it, but especially in keeper leagues, it's hard to get away from it: don't pay for saves. And yet, since you have to have them in all likelihood to win your league, you wind up, well, paying for saves.

While all of the selected numbers presented below are just for the first week of course, they're still fairly educational. The following eight closers were all reasonably well regarded before the draft as owning their jobs, in decent situations, and in home parks that weren't bandboxes. You wouldn't want to stake your life on any of them being absolute lockdown options, but if you had them for not so much, you'd feel OK about your team.

Or, well, not.

Brandon Morrow -- 2 saves, 10.13 ERA, 1.88 WHIP.

Brian Fuentes -- 2 saves, 12.00 ERA, 2.40 WHIP.

Kevin Gregg -- 1 save, 13.50 ERA, 3.50 WHIP.

B.J Ryan - 0 saves, 21.60 ERA, 4.20 WHIP.

Troy Percival - 1 save, 9.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP.

Kerry Wood -- 0 saves, 9.00 ERA, 3.00 WHIP.

Jason Motte - 0 saves, 15.43 WHIP, 3.00 WHIP.

Oh, and I own(ed) over half of this list in various leagues, which explains why I'm noticing this with, well, some enhanced interest.

The lesson, as always: I'm an idiot.

Tiger's missing rivals

For fifteen years now, Tiger Woods has been going to Augusta, GA and mostly treating the course and field as if it were his own personal bank. Given that his knee seems fine now (hey, there was something about him that wasn't perfect after all!), the only bet before this tournament is Robo Beast against the Field, and as usual, you're better off with the beast.

Now, the actually interesting thing about this is that we've had more than enough time and money to actually develop some actual competition for him by now. At this point, you'd think that some other golfer (or, well, many other golfers) would have picked up the pace and actually hit some weights, since part of the advantage of being Tiger is that he's actually very athletic, at least in comparison with the usual collection of bloated sacs that make up a tourney field. You'd also think that, given that The Feline One has made enough money to fund his own Buick Bailout, that some other elite athletes would have taken up the sport, in say, high school and college, and started to bubble their way up from the Q-School.

But what has happened instead is that Tiger has competed against the same old tired hands of his generation, with no clear rival stepping up to the plate, or young gun making him sweat it out by outdriving him by a couple of clubs, the way he used to do to people when he was just coming up.

What are left with is the following.

1) Woods is just that singular and unique a talent, that like Jordan before him, his very presence and competitive intimidation just makes the existence of rivals laughable.

2) Woods hasn't really inspired new people to play golf, so much as to just watch it.

Personally, I'd go for option 3, which is to say some of both. Besides, even if you are inspired to take up the game to be more like Tiger, you still need clubs and a place to play. But your mileage may vary...

How To Beat Me In Poker

Yesterday night in my home game, I was loving my home poker game, which is a pretty common thing for me, win or lose. I wound up wining the tournament, doing well in the cash game, and feeling good about my game for the first time in months.

Tonight at another game hosted by one of my regulars, I donkeyed out of the tournament with speed and was glad to do so. And I think I've learned something important in the bargain.

Simply, this: I don't enjoy poker so much that I want to play it with assholes.

One point to make before I go further on this: my opinion of who you are as a person is independent of whether I'm losing my chips to you, or how you play the game. Raise pre-flop, call every bet, etc., etc. -- that's all just poker to me.

But when you narrate every hand, scream when you win, insult folks who lose hands when they get caught in bluffs, and in general, make me want out, despite the fact that I knew I should grind through it... well, you, sir, are an asshole, and life is too short, really.

I quickly found myself overbetting, thinking about UNC-Villanova (and no, I hadn't watched a moment of the tournament up to now), and wondering if I could get home fast enough to put my kids to bed.

And so I did, forgoing the cash game that usually goes into the wee small hours of the morning, and denying the individual in question of any chance at any significant amount of my money, given that the tournament is a lot cheaper to play than the cash game. I won't be back, at least not until I'm a lot older, and a lot better at staying in my shoes against people like that.

And one last point about this... is the effectiveness of this tactic (because, well, given how many top poker players seem to be this way, it has to work) the reason why so much of the growth in the game has come online?

Your Fantasy Baseball Sleeper and Bust Column

Every year, I have the same problem with this column: when to write it. FTT's readership must assuredly includes all of the people that I compete with in my three leagues, and tipping my hand on these players is, more or less, my entire prep work for the season. Not advisable. But with two out of three leagues down already, and the last having some mitigating circumstances from being a keeper league, here goes. (Also, if I'm in a league with you, you already know that I'm the grandaddy of all liars.)

Sleepers

1) John Baker, SP, Minnesota Twins. I love the Twins staff on value for a bunch of reasons. The first is the park. People think the Metrodome is a hitters' park because of the baggie in right field and the way the ball used to jump out of the place, but look again; it's now neutral at best, and the visibility is just not something that opposing hitters can adjust to quickly, especially if they aren't experienced at playing there before. What the Twins have here is simply an unfair park for the home team, rather than an equal opportunity hitters paradise.

Second is the club behind him. Minnesota does the small market thing of stocking the team with plus defenders and a deep bullpen; you rarely get a start here from a pitcher that is going to out and out kill you. In head to head leagues where you spend most of the week hoping that your SP doesn't give you a turd sandwich, that's critical.

Finally is Baker himself. He's the closest thing to an ace that the Twins have, post-Santana, and can out and out dominate (in a quiet, polite, Midwestern way) when he's on. Combine all of that with the usual market discount that you get for shopping in the hinterlands, and even a little bit of spring training stay-away (he's been less than sharp so far), and I think you have the perfect recipe for a bargain. 141 Ks in 172 IP last year, with a 1.18 WHIP. Buy into it now, and get the 225 IP version.

2) Chris Ray, RP, Baltimore Orioles. This just in: George Sherrill wasn't anything special before last year. He's also lefthanded, which is something that rarely works in your favor in a closer battle. Ray hasn't given up anything in spring training, and the very worst that you'll get is a co-closer with the better end of the platoon. Given what the Orioles are and do, you might even luck into him getting a full-time job with a playoff contender by mid-season.

3) Jason Motte, RP, St. Louis Cardinals. The first person to not like his stuff will be the last, and with Chris Perez succumbing to injury, the next great young closer is primed to take the role. With Tony LaRussa going by the numbers and the Cardinals looking surprisingly frisky this year (hey, if Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright can stay healthy, it's not impossible to see them winning the Central), you've got a very good Rookie of the Year candidate brewing. Take advantage of the people in your league who don't pay enough attention here.

4) JJ Putz, RP, New York Mets. Is it possible that the best reliever on the Mets doesn't have the closer job? Yes, of course, and that's not even too much of a knock on K-Rod, who should be good enough in the weaker league. If K-Rod should falter and/or break, Putz would take the gig for a probable 90+ win team in a probable strong pitcher's park. Worse case scenario, you've got a steady Scott Shields type of guy who can provide good ratios in a lot of relief innings -- infinitely preferable for a late round selection than a marginal starter.

5) Coco Crisp, OF, Kansas City Royals. He's murdered the ball in camp (.371 BA), and 20+ SBs won't come any cheaper. I could see him chipping in with moderate power and batting average, and the Royals' offense could be a lot better behind him. Heck, I even like the team to not be mathematically eliminated this year until Labor Day. So what's not to love? Jump on the Coco Career Year Train.

6) Mark Ellis, 2B, Oakland A's. In 2007, Ellis gave budget-base shoppers 19 homers, 76 RBIs and 9 steals with 84 runs scored. Last year, he got hurt, stank, and was also at the top of an order that had less punch than your average "fight" after a beanball. So what to expect this year, with Mssrs. Holliday and Giambi up behind him? 2007, provided he ever gets healthy. Either way, you won't have to pay much to find out.

7) Fred Lewis, OF, San Francisco Giants. This is what you get when you take too long to get to the majors and play for a god-awful team; zero hype or love, even when you deliver 81 runs and 21 steals in less than a full starting job. Expect a little more from Right Said Fred this year -- maybe 90 runs, 15 homers and 25 steals, and all of that for a late late late pick. Let someone else pay the name freight for Johnny Damon and ride the anonymous Lewis for cheap steals.

8) Elijah Dukes, OF, Washington Nationals. Is he a murderous stooge? of course. Are the Natty Lights a terrible, terrible team? Mais oui. But you don't have to bring him home to Mom; all you have to do is hold your nose and pick him, then hope that he stays in his shoes long enough to give you 30/30 on the sly. He'd have done that last year if he hadn't gotten hurt, and he's still just 24 years of age. Besides, the Natty's can't be as bad as they were last year, so he could really exceed all expectations without too much trouble.

9) Trevor Cahill, SP, Oakland A's. Who? A 2006 high school pick of the Billy Beaneaters, who took the A's money rather than go to Dartmouth. You'll be able to draft him as late as you like, or maybe even just stream in daily leagues, but here's what he's got going for him: 1) exceptional ground ball ratio, 2) good control, 3) excellent home park, 4) a lockdown bully that strands inherited runners and 5) an organization that knows what they are doing with young arms.

With Gio Gonzalez on the shelf and Justin Duchscherer a little iffy, he should get a chance to impress, and might do more than that; if Greg Smith and Dana Eveland could give you some goodness last year, the bar is certainly not high. And if he fails, the organization will swap him out for another guy (Gonzalez, most likely) that you'll want to roll the dice with. This is a really good place to have a young starter.

10) Kevin Slowey, SP, Minnesota Twins. If you are in a K/BB league, Slowey is absolute gold due to his freaky great control; last year, in just his second year in the Show, it was over 5 to 1, and he did the same thing in his rookie year, too. He also increased his strikeout rate, and with Baker and Francisco Liriano on board, he won't be facing the other team's top pitchers. He's tasty.

Busts

1) Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles. Now, don't get me wrong: I've seen the PECOTA predictions and read the scouting reports, and I'm also convinced that he's going to be great. The question is, what year will that be? In 2009, he's going to start the season in the minors as the Orioles give the middle finger to their 43 remaining fans, just to make sure that his arbitration-ready clock doesn't start right away. If you can carry a zero on your roster in a H2H league until June, you are in a league that plays a lot different than mine.

2) Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins. Continuing my trend of Catcher Hate is Joe Mauer, who has rarely been part of a winning fantasy breakfast. Too injury prone, with less power than AJ Pyrzinski, and the handful of steals that he gives you is hardly worth the early round premium -- especially now that more OFs are running. Let someone else overpay for the relatively emplty batting average calories and season-long worries about his back; unless he gets a clean bill of health (unlikely), he's not going on any team of mine.

3) Cole Hamels, P, Philadelphia Phillies. In my keeper league, he got traded something like four times this off-season. I suspect that what happened each time is that his new owner took a look at his innings pitched for 2008, then compared that to every other year in his life and winced. No one else believes me on this, but I think he was completely spent at the close of 2008, which means you won't get nearly enough from him in 2009.

4) Max Scherzer, P, Arizona Diamondbacks. Another electric talent that's overbought for this year, mostly due to control issues. I also don't like his home park (Arizona is sneaky good for the hitter), his division (the Dodgers will be good this year, and no pitcher ever really enjoys trips to Coors), or his need to perform (with Randy Johnson gone to San Francisco, Mad Max is going to be asked to do too much, too soon). Get him in the post-hype 2010 year, when he delivers real value.

5) Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees. Perhaps the most divergent pick on the board in any draft. I've heard the argument that you're going to get 2/3rds of a year from him and that he'll be fine, but I'm not seeing it. He's not going to steal bases this year for fear of making the hip worse, and a stationary A-Rod is really not better than Aramis Ramirez -- and that's not even taking into account the fact that you'll get a full year of work out of A-Ram.

There's also this, of course. A-Fraud is 32, with the biggest contract in the history of the game, and will either return to a Yankee team that's been winning without his sideshow, or that desperately needs him to save the season. Meanwhile, he's going to be Tabloid Friend #1, and the road fan work on him is going to be fantastic -- he's just given them an incredible arsenal for heckling here. Not exactly an easy rehab, is that? Mighty good chance that he tries to do too much too soon and gets hurt worse, right?

Save yourself the stress and let someone else take him, unless it's getting to be 5th round or worse. It's just not worth it this year.

6) Carlos Marmol, RP, Chicago Cubs. No denying that he's got the stuff to close, but he doesn't have the job, and after his March adventures in arson during the WBC, maybe he doesn't have the stuff right now, either. Every year, there are dozens of sure-thing relievers that just go poof, and Marmol just has that feel to me this year. Besides, in most drafts you are having to pay closer rates for a guy that, well, doesn't have the gig. Pass.

7) Rich Harden, SP, Chicago Cubs. This hurts, because he's catnip to me and probably always will be; if nothing else, I've always been fond of the guy who is either great or hurt, because he doesn't kill you.

But Harden-With-Care is absolutely stone-cold due to get taken down this year, and all of the coddling that Cap'n Lou Pinella can do isn't going to stop that. The man's just not built to throw more than 150 innings in a year, and after last year's mini-CC act, the price you'll pay for those innings is probably too great.

8) Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers. This one is almost entirely a hunch, as there's a lot to like about Ryno; he's young, in a position that doesn't get in his head defensively, and on a team that looks primed to score some runs this year. So why don't I like him? He's just unconsciously streaky, and from watching him, I just get the sense that he's the kind of guy that isn't quite comfortable being the top dog. With Prince Fielder seemingly on his way out of town (he's represented by Scott Boras, which is to say, he's represented by an agent that doesn't sign deals with non-MLB+ teams), that's the role they'll need from him.

9) Lance Berkman, 1B, Houston Astros. Another guy coming off a career year, and on the wrong side of 32. You might not be able to get away from him, given the shallow state of top-drawer first basemen, but you're not getting a .420 OBA and 18 SBs again.

10) David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox. Want to make Red Sox Fan angry? Tell him or her that Big Papi is Big Over. For everyone that thought that the winter off would bring back the quicks to the bat that he lost after the wrist problem last year, I give you his work in the WBC, which looked a heck of a lot more like Slow October Papi than the old crusher. When you weigh as much as he does, the decline is not gradual, and while he'll still keep the OBA, I'm not seeing a return to those halcyon days of yon. This is also a guy that should really start using more of the field; that defensive shift on him is paying real dividends.

The NCAAs Are Not Allowed To Be Boring

With all four number one seeds going on to the Sweet 16, and an almost unbearable amount of chalk being thrown around (seriously, you'd have gone 22-10 just picking the high seed in round 1, and 15-1 with the high seeds in round 2)...

Well, it must be a really fantastic tournament, right?

The NCAA tournament has reached the level of NFL season in terms of being in a more or less every season hype monster. If the low seeds are upset, it's crazy exciting, best weekend in sports, etc., etc.

If the picks stay chalk, well, wow, what matchups we've got in the final rounds.

Um, far be it for me to call bullsquat here, but from where I sit, so far this tournament looks like the Big East tournament, only with more ballast. Perhaps UNC and Duke will make it an ACC run again, or maybe Gonzaga will finally pay off all of those years of teasing...

But well, no one watches the first two rounds of the tournament hoping for nothing more amazing than a single double digit seed (Arizona, who hardly fits the profile of a From Nowhere team anyway).

So I'm asking, from the point of view of someone who watched little more than Flynn and Devendorf as they kept my Orangemen alive... have these first four days been dull?

And if not, what is?

Blogrolling Is Your #2 Choice In Modeling

Five Tool Tool is a #3 seed in the "Best Sports Blog Name" tournament over at Zoner Sports. I couldn't be more proud, really, and will continue to feel that way after we get taken down in a stunning upset, out overrated, pasty faces staring at the court in disbelief. We know the role.

I've been out of commission for the past 24+ hours, continuing to fight the good fight against a week-long illness. But on the other hand, I could have had Samuel L's day here in "Deep Blue Sea."



Now that Najeh Davenport's career is in the, um, dumper... it's time for him to try male modeling. No, I'm not kidding. And he has Some Experience!

Between the poker playing, the two daughters and the sports gambling, is there any wonder why I'm down with the Bracketer-in-Chief? Apologies for the fact that you've seen this on every other sports blog on the planet.

Destroy any Web site, including this one. Personally, I'm partial to the Led Zeppelin mode.

The Nietzsche Family Circus pairs a random Family Circus cartoon with a random quote from the philosopher.

Madness Sadness

Just in case some of you are new to the blog and wondering what we're going to do for the NCAA Mens' Basketball Tournament, the answer is...

In all likelihood, not nearly enough to make you happy.

You see, my own personal interest in the tournament is entirely limited to how far my alma mater, the Orangemen of Syracuse University, go. And after their overtime-riffic weekend in New York City, my guess on that amount is Not Very Far At All.

I could, of course, write the same piece that you'll see in any number of other sites in the next few days -- the wacky name column, the will this be the year that a #1 seed finally loses a first round game piece, or the gripe work over how the play-in game is not, in fact, worth anyone's time or attention -- but, frankly, there's just not enough time in the day to be all things to all people, and there's just too much to know about college ball to try and pick it up on the fly.

Which isn't meant to denigrate the power of the tournament, which remains, at least at the start, probably the best four-day stretch in sports. You'd also think that, given the ridiculous popularity of this thing, that the NCAA would learn a lesson and institute a similar set-up for football. Imagine, if you would, the interest and betting involved in a 64-team, single elimination tournament where teams are playing every few days (and no, I don't much care that some players might get hurt from the rapid turnaround, or that they'd miss too much claswork, or any other excuse you want to trot out there).

Now, you might still get some Tooly goodness on the tournament from The Truth (a Kansas guy) and Dirty Davey (a UNC man). And if you want to have a pool that's still in play in the late showing, just put in three #1 seeds and be done with it; you'll be right a lot more than you are wrong. Or you could just go ask that clueless woman in the Accounting department, the one that always wins these things, who she likes this year. (And you people wonder why I don't watch this...)

Blogrolling Is Fighting The Good Fight

Our crush on Barney Frank continues. Between sports gambling and marijuana legalization, we'll take care of this recession in no time!

Perhaps the gift of the year (century?) for that guy in your fantasy league who always wastes your time with nonstop trade requests. Let him know that you're ready to support him in his good fight. This ranks right up there with an Owens or Favre jersey for Cowboys or Jets Fan...



Jose Reyes is the most exciting Spanish speaker in baseball. Now, if he had only followed up with, "Tell me how my ass tastes," he'd have won me over...

Only $2,026 so far for your very own Zamboni. That's Big Fun!

Major League Jerk with your WBC update, because we can't be bothered to watch the silly thing. But on the plus side, the USA punked Canada, and I can't stand those freaking Canucks evcer since the start-up with Canadian management, two start-ups ago. Screw you, hosers!

All in to sin

The Gray Lady today with a pro forma bad beat story, aka as Gosh, People On The Internet Sure Do Stuff. A few points on what is a decent read anyway...

> There is something visceral about the need to complain about your own poor luck, but it is essentially masturbatory.

It basically is something you are doing to try to cover your own regrets. But regrets are, to a certain extent, just someone reliving the past for the sake of avoiding the present. You might have a good reason to avoid the present, but eventually, you're going to stop. So why not now? (Answer: because I'm still hurting. Pout.)

> Bad beats in online poker create conspiracy thinking.

When you get beat runner-runner (aka, the opponent gets the perfect two cards on the turn and river to come from behind and win) in real life, it's agonizing but understandable. After all, you were there to watch the cards come out, and the conspiracy thought of This Game Is Rigged goes against the fact that you were watching with your own eyes. If the dealer is crooked, you missed it. Whereas in an online or computer game, it's just the cards the computer decided to put out there -- an intrinsically shakier proposition.

Secondly, when you are the victim of a big comeback in real life, you also get to, at least, see the surprise from your opponent. That helps to sell the fact that what happened to you was random, rather than nefarious. (Assuming, of course, that your opponent isn't a complete tool about getting bailed out by luck.)

> There's a huge difference between playing online and playing via computer. (Well, duh.)

One place that I've played at recently lets players put cash in play, along with the chips. It adds a certain recklessness to the game that I'm not all that comfortable with, but the players are so draw-happy that the game is profitable, or at least has been for me in the past. It's also, well, not as much fun for me.

When you play with just chips, it's something of a sunk cost. (I don't ever expect to make money at a table, or even break even, though I do more often than not. If you are playing with cash you absolutely need, you've got a problem, and are probably coming to the game on tilt from the start.) Cash, even if it's the same amount you were going to put into chips, never feels like an entrance fee; it's just cash, sitting right there. Take it and leave, if you're smart.

Computer games go from that feel of cash on hand to cash nowhere. Purchases are made with plastic, and the money that can be lost is twice removed. So people can (and do) go all-in with a lot more regularity than you might see at a table game, and it's just a fundamentally different game... one that, well, is going to generate a lot more bad-beat stories. If you get beat runner-runner for all of your chips, it's just a much bigger story then if you suffered a 10% loss. (The latter is, well, just not a story.)

> No one ever tells lucky win stories.

Six months ago in my house game, I was holding King-Queen suited when the flop came out King, King, King. The room more or less stopped cold to see it, and I confess, I acted it up a bit on my slow-play check. When the turn card was an ace, betting happened, and I was able to get the size of the pot up considerably. The river was a meaningless low card, and my four kings took a very large number of chips from the poor guy who had a full house, aces over kings. It's the best hand I've ever had in a live game, which is why I remember it, really.

A week ago in a tournament, I held Ace-King suited to a flop that was Queen, 10, 6, with the Queen and 10 matching my hole cards. With 19 outs (the three aces, three kings, four jacks and nine suited cards) to a good hand, and with a table image that was hyper-tight (I had been getting weak cards and was at a very loose table), I went all-in, and got called by a guy holding pocket twos. Despite being nearly a 2 to 1 underdog and after making a bad read on my hand strength, my opponent's cards held up.

Now, which story do you think I've thought about (and, sigh, told...) more? Yeah, the damn deuces. It is how we are wired; the joy from a win is more than overcome by the pain from a loss.

And in this, as in many things, poker is an apt metaphor for life...

Blogrolling: Trees Paint, iCheat, Hiding in Ikea Sight and an epic prank

The Larch... is an artiste.

iCheat, for your iPhone, with the iBlackjack. I'm pretty sure that iPain results. I also love that the first commenter is either the developer or a very inventive spammer (most likely the latter).

I don't want to be seen in Ikea, either.

Nick at IWS examines the disappearing Tulowitzki. Consider it a preview of my sleeper/busts fantasy baseball column, which is going to be 100% opposite of what I really think this year, just to throw my roto league competitors off the scent. (And if it's 100% opposite, it'll also be really helpful to you, unlike past years...)

Prank Wars continues with a hoax that has tens of thousands of accomplices. Maryland, you done good.

Watch Prank War 7: The Half Million Dollar Shot and more funny videos on CollegeHumor

Blogrolling calls out Walt Whitman, melts down over "food", and rides with camels

The top image today is a real live report from a student who didn't do the homework, but did contribute a moment of genius. Click on it to get a bigger image that you can actually read, kind of. He's got a three-film deal with Fox Searchlight now.

McNugget Denial inspires three calls to 911. You will be amazed to learn that this opinion was cited in the schlong of America, the state that gave us George Bush. Saw it off!

Barney Frank wants to legalize sports gambling. Many of the people reading this site, for the first time, want to kiss Barney Frank. Chastely, of course, until he delivers. After that, it's Campaign Contribution Time. (Cue the funky '70s riff.)



They are camels. They are angry. They are in a car. And yes, the camel's people already have a 3-picture deal with DreamWorks, with a merchandising tie-in that's making the cigarette people giddy. (What, you thought the camels were that mean naturally?)

Snooty film critic disses comic book readers in the midst of dissing the movie that the comic book readers might like. Blogger then takes snooty film critic to task for, well, taking a cheap swipe at the audience, rather than focusing on the freaking movie. Rest of world wonders when film critics became less geeky than comic book readers. And all-snarky sports blogger sits back, comfortable in his Man Space, secure in the knowledge that while these numbnuts are in the real-life equivalent of the AV Club, we're hanging in the school newspaper office, where we have our own desk and everything.

Betting The 103

ESPN's Peter Gammons saying there's a "very good chance" the rest of the 104 names of players to test positive for PEDs in 2003 will be revealed within the next month.

Now, seriously, Las Vegas... do I have to do all the work for you on this one? Give us an over/under bet on how many members of the 2003 All-Star Game were taking the needle!

National League All-Stars (First the starters, then the pitchers, then the reserves)

Jason Schmidt -- Power pitcher, hurt soon after, played in Balco Land... Call it 3 to 1 against

Javy Lopez -- Fell apart fast, but catchers do that -- 5 to 1 against

Todd Helton -- A lot of injuries recently, power has fallen to hell, screamed a little too loud at earlier allegations... 2 to 1

Jose Vidro -- Never really was good enough to show a performance spike -- 10 to 1

Scott Rolen -- Prototype injury breakdowns and erratic power, friends with McGwire -- 3 to 1

Edgar Renteria -- Still around, durable, some performance spike but not huge -- 8 to 1

Jim Edmonds -- McGwire teammate, injury prone, erratic power -- 4 to 1

Albert Pujols -- Epic power, some injury experience, a Cardinal but no real spikes -- 6 to 1

Gary Sheffield -- Always was a misanthrope, performance spikes with contract years, moved to a lot of teams, many teammates to rat on him if he was juicing -- 6 to 1

Bary Bonds -- Um, duh. That's one.

Armando Benitez -- Closers always spike; 10 to 1

Kevin Brown -- Huge chance, given the money and injury history, along with the bad personality and cheating history -- 3 to 1

Shawn Chacon -- Yes, he really was an All-Star once; 12 to 1

Eric Gagne -- Have to think he's likely given the career path -- 4 to 1

Russ Ortiz -- I'm as surprised as anyone to see him here; was in BalcoLand then -- 7 to 1

Mark Prior -- Prototype, but I suspect Dusty Baker was the real career killer here -- 8 to 1

John Smoltz -- No real spike, still around, would be surprising and disappointing -- 15 to 1

Billy Wagner -- Kind of a hyper-competitive ass and injury-prone, but most closers are like that -- 9 to 1

Mike Williams -- Pretty sure he couldn't afford them, and if he did use, he got bad product -- 15 to 1

Woody Williams -- If he did them, he must not be able to reach home plate without -- 25 to 1

Dontrelle Willis -- Never really a flame thrower, seems too flaky/genuine for cheating, and as a Marlin, was probably skipping meals to pay his bills -- 15 to 1

Randy Wolf -- Just not good enough to be a user -- 12 to 1

Kerry Wood -- See Prior -- 8 to 1

Paul Lo Duca -- No power, but injury prone and a homicidal jerk -- 3 to 1

Richie Sexson -- Was always big, was never good again, but was pretty durable -- 7 to 1

Luis Castillo -- Not enough power for drugs -- 15 to 1

Marcus Giles -- Surprisingly apt career for a juicer -- 5 to 1

Aaron Boone -- Have to think that both Boone Brothers are highly likely cheats -- 3 to 1

Mike Lowell -- Red Sox players are always clean -- 14 to 1

Rafael Furcal -- More interested in DUIs than ROIDs -- 12 to 1

Luis Gonzalez -- Durable with a big power year, might have used and gotten out -- 8 to 1

Geoff Jenkins -- Perfect career arc and injury history for it -- 5 to 1

Andruw Jones -- How else can you explain him? 3 to 1

Rondell White -- I suspect even he forgets he made this team -- 10 to 1

Preston Wilson -- The big year was probably more altitude-related than needle, but still, a huge year and then ill health -- 8 to 1

American League All Stars

Esteban Loiaza -- What, you don't think he was immoral enough for it? 3 to 1

Jorge Posada -- Too long a career and too durable -- 12 to 1

Carlos Delgado -- Similar to Posada at first base; if he did use, it wasn't in 2003 -- 12 to 1

Alfonso Soriano -- One big year and some injury history, but the big years also coincided with salary drives and hitter parks -- 6 to 1

Troy Glaus -- Another prototype juice career, and a McGwire teammate -- 7 to 1

Alex Rodriguez -- Our second locked down juicer

Garret Anderson -- No real power spike to speak of -- 12 to 1

Hideki Matsui -- Acne? Check. Injury prone? Check. On a team with cheaters? Make it three... 8 to 1

Ichiro Suzuki -- Hyper-durable, no real power spikes, I'd be well and truly surprised -- 25 to 1

Edgar Martinez -- Too durable with no spikes, but did have some huge years -- 15 to 1

Lance Carter -- Was he in the league long enough to take some? -- 20 to 1

Roger Clemens -- Number three with a thrown roid rage bat bullet

Brendan Donnelly -- Ex-scab, cheat and general piece of garbage with some big years -- 4 to 1

Keith Foulke -- I'd be surprised, given that he threw a change, but he did play for the Tejada/Giambi A's in BalcoLand -- 12 to 1

Eddie Guardado -- Not really a flamethrower, and highly durable back in that day -- 15 to 1

Roy Halladay -- Lock durable without super speed, a shock if he did -- 20 to 1

Shigetoshi Hasegawa -- Who remembers or cares? Probably him, for one -- 15 to 1

Mike MacDougal -- One of those bad team non-stars, durable but not good -- 15 to 1

Jamie Moyer -- Obviously a juicer, given his lack of durability and raw stuff, and yes, That's Sarcasm; would be higher odds if he hadn't come out so strong against A-Roid, leading to "Methinks he dost protest too much" potential -- 20 to 1

Mark Mulder -- Wasn't a flame-thrower, but huge injury issues and a Balco A -- 9 to 1

C.C. Sabathia -- Only if the roids came in donut form, but maybe the Yankees require it -- 9 to 1

Barry Zito -- Doesn't throw hard or get hurt, but a Balco A -- 12 to 1

Ramon Hernandez -- Balco A, migrant worker, no real huge power spike -- 12 to 1

Jason Varitek -- Durable and faded is not really the roid way -- 12 to 1

Jason Giambi -- Fourth man in!

Mike Sweeney -- Classic roid career, but it's hard to see how any Royal cared enough to cheat -- 12 to 1

Bret Boone -- I'd be surprised if he didn't -- 3 to 1

Hank Blalock -- More of a park effect, but some durability and performance spikes -- 8 to 1

Nomar Garciaparra -- Probably the most likely Red Sox user, given the injury history and intermittent power -- 4 to 1

Melvin Mora -- Too durable with limited spike -- 12 to 1

Magglio Ordonez -- Big production, injury history, fought with his manager, but still didn't seem the type -- 9 to 1

Manny Ramirez -- Despite the Bad Tooth's protests, there are performance spikes here, and he's smart enough to tell someone else to dose him -- 8 to 1

Vernon Wells -- Severe spikes and injury history, but might have been too young to use at this age -- 9 to 1

Carl Everett -- Capable of any thing at any time, with the freaky kind of personality that says Chemically Enhanced -- 6 to 1

Dmitri Young -- I'm amazed that he made the team, and he did have injury issues, but roids don't usually make you fat -- 12 to 1

I'm putting the over/under at 14.5. Give me the over!

This Game Is Easy

You'll forgive, Dear Reader, if I'm a little less snarky or hate-filled than usual today. I'm in the afterglow of the best night of my life on the felt.

One of the guys at my monthly game gave me the tip on another house game, this one in a flat-out unbelievable setting. You drive up to a place with a quarter-mile long driveway, into a game room with five full tables, the biggest big-screen TV I've seen outside of a showroom, high-end framed NFL memorabilia and more, more, more. Twenty-seven people signed up for the tournament, and with some of the best play of my life (and cards, and luck), I was able to get to the final table in just my second tournament (outside of my single-table home game).

Just a few hands in, I doubled up against one of the guys I rode in with when I caught trips on my pocket sixes, then boated with aces on the turn; he was unable to get away from his trip aces. Trip deuces gave me another big payday at my second table, and I was able to chip up against a player who read my table presence as strong, even when I had little.

At the final table, I was to the left of the guy who paid me early, and my Q-K was able to break his A-10, and score the knockout, when I caught a queen. The short stacks to my left kept catching cards to make the table last until the antes got huge, leaving the final players all more or less short-stacked. When we got to heads-up, the final opponent and I split the pot for everything but the last $50 (awfully sporting of him, really), and after dodging a half hour of all-ins with several river saves, he took me out. Second place was worth a nice chunk of change, and after a break, I joined the cash game with a nice bankroll.

The cash table that I sat down at was loose and wild, with players putting cash on the table for straight and flush draws like they were betting on high pairs. I joined in the insanity when a minimum blind bit on 10-J spade matched up with Q-K spades on the flop. I hung in long enough to catch a 7-spade on the river, and from there, my table image was made. I didn't take a bad loss in the next two hours of play, was able to take down a fair number of pots without showing a card, and more or less added to my chip pile for the entire duration of play.

The whole night reminded me, oddly, of golf. Play that game long enough, and you'll have a breakthrough round, one where the shots fall, the putts lip in, and the luck is with you. You then make the great comic joke of golf, the one that men have been making for centuries, and the subject header of this little post.

And the next time you've got a club in your hand, it all goes to hell.

So, if you're free next Friday and want some easy money, come on down. I'm due for hours of crap cards, bad plays, and hard-core misery.