The Conference Finals Pick

Cleveland vs. Orlando

The case for Cleveland: Home court and the best player in the Association generally means a Finals appearance at least. Reasonably seasoned roster. Tremendous home court advantage this year. Sneaky talented, especially in the bench rotation, where useful parts like Joe Smith, Daniel Gibson and Wally Sczerbiak can do some things. Great defensive team, especially on the perimeter. Solid three point shooters who take advantage of the wide-open spaces that playing with LeBron James generates. It's hard to imagine James not getting the calls in the clutch here.

The case against: They have not been tested for more than a quarter at a time this year in this playoff; it's very possible that there is some paper tiger going on here. Have received too much rest for this time of the year. Head coach Mike Brown has demonstrated his ability to eat paste in crunch time against the Celtics and Spurs. If James ever misses time, gets in foul trouble or settles for unproductive three-point shooting, they can be had on offense. As an overwhelming favorite with rust, could get off on the wrong foot this series and be in real trouble. Are just 3-8 in the James Era against the Magic.

The case for Orlando: Have been the better team in both of their series this year, and have been extended only due to poor crunch time work. When they are hitting their threes, can beat anyone -- and frankly, make it look pretty easy. Cleveland has no good matchup down low for Dwight Howard on defense. In Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu, have definitive matchup problems for an opponent on offense. Stan van Gundy might have a tactical edge on Brown. For the first time in the playoffs, aren't really expected to win, so they could be playing with house money here.

The case against: Struggle in the half court when the threes aren't falling. Can be pressured with Rafer Alston at the point. Like everyone else in the Association, have no good matchups for James; could also be in real trouble to keep Mo Williams down, too. Might not have the front-court depth to compete, especially if Howard wears down or gets in foul trouble. Lewis and Turkoglu might give back everything they give you, and more, on defense. Won't have rest or home court, and are going against a team that just looks unstoppable right now. Have real issues holding a lead due to team-wide trouble at the free throw line; if they are going to pull the upset, they can't leave points on the table.

The pick: Cleveland in five. Orlando is much, much better than the Pistons and Hawks, but all that will mean here is that the Cavs will try harder, and win by a little less. This team is just too much in tune right now to give up more than a game.

Los Angeles vs. Denver

The case for Los Angeles: Best offensive talent in the post-season, especially up front. Huge coaching advantage in Phil Jackson vs. Furious George Karl. Some flakiness, but nowhere near the number of lifetime offenders as the opposition. For the first time in the playoffs, shouldn't get lit up too badly at the point guard position, since Chauncey Billups is more of a power point at this point in his career, and hence, a better match for Derek Fisher. After the Houston series against Shane Battier and Ron Artest, Kobe Bryant is going to feel like he's playing basketball in low gravity against Dahntay Jones, J. R. Smith, and maybe even Renaldo Blackman. Have ended Denver's season with regularity over the years.

The case against: Have been exposed as bipolar at best, and gutless at worse, in getting extended to seven games by an undermanned Rockets team. Have real problems guarding point guards and three point shooters. The scoring bigs can be taken out of the game by physical play, and Denver has the most physical bigs left in the playoffs. Won't have as much rest as their opponent, due to their own negligence. Up until the last game of the Rockets series, Andrew Bynum has looked lost. The bench, which seemed like a huge strength in the regular season, has given them little in the post-season. Soft as tissue paper; when your enforcer is your point guard, that's not a good sign, really.

The case for Denver: Playing with house money. Kenyon Martin and Nene, if they don't get whistled for everything, could really make Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol come up small, especially on the road. Have the rest advantage, and have to like their chances after watching those Rockets tapes. Carmelo Anthony is playing the best basketball of his life, and Billups is a borderline MVP candidate this year. It's hard to see the Lakers just putting the hammer down and crushing their opposition, and eventually that's going to cost them plenty against a quality opponent

The case against: That Kobe matchup is brutal for them. As this week's continued pissing match between Martin and Mark Cuban proves, the Nugget roster is not exactly devoid of meatheads; self-destruction is always possible. While Billups has been great at getting to conference finals, he's not exactly been to a huge number of NBA Finals; in crunch time, he tends to take the shot over better ideas like Anthony. Smith can take them out of their offense with highly dubious decisions. Bryant has, everr since the Eagle, Colorado fiasco, owned Denver at home.

The pick: Los Angeles in seven. They can be had, but in the final analysis, I just can't take the second-best coach and player, with home court. There's also the simple fact that if both teams play their best game, the Lakers win. But a Nuggets win would not shock me, at least not in the same way that, say, a Magic win would.