Tuesday, November 13, 2007

NBA Potpourri

Just to show that this blog still covers more than the NFL, and the Patriots... here's where we are after two weeks in the NBA.

1) The Celtics own November. I kind of expected that the team would get off to a good start from the talent infusion, but they are also doing something that they have to do, given their short bench and star reliance -- they are blowing people out. With a point differential of 16.6 points per game, they're leading the NBA, and should be able to keep the heavy stress down... but note, please, that Pierce, Allen and Garnett are averaging over 39 minutes per game. Doc Rivers isn't, um, smart, and that's going to cost them in the long run.

2) Detroit's back with a vengeance. When we last saw the Pistons, they were looking old and spent in gagging up a playoff series to LeBron James and the Cavs. They've answered the bell with a 5-1 start and a 10-point differential. They are getting great production out of their second unit, with Hayes, Maxiell, and Murray giving them solid minutes and defense. Here's another positive: Sheed doesn't have a technical yet, but he does have 15 points a game, with efficient three-point shooting (44%). Plus, when your big man is doing that, it opens up lots of things for other players. (This is one of the reasons why the Mavs have won so many games with Dirk.)

3) The Southeast is horrible right now. With Washington and Miami combining to go 2-10, and the Hawks squandering big early wins en route to a 2-4 start, it's Orlando or nothing... and the Magic really aren't that good, either. With Boston, New Jersey and Toronto all looking competent or better, the torch of Worst Division in the NBA has clearly passed.

4) Kevin Durant will not win the Rookie of the Year. Simply because the voters will not pull the trigger for a low percentage gunner on a 20-win team that's going to spend the entire season doing the Lame Duck Wiggle, even if he's the only one with 20 points per game. There's some talent here, but with Durant shooting 39% from the forward position and the team dropping 5 points every game from no one getting to the free throw line, don't expect this to get better soon. Welcome back to the big boy seat, PJ Carlesimo!

5) Phoenix should be fine... but while I made fun of this idea in preseason, they really might miss Kurt Thomas, of all people. Boris Diaw has shown no signs of being the supremely useful player he was in 2005, Amare Stoudemire has been banged up, and Brian Skinner fits in here about as well as, well, he fits in anywhere. Any team that's giving Sean Marks minutes has issues with its big men, and it's all leading to too many minutes for Grant Hill... and we all know what happens next, right?

6) Houston (shh!) may be better than the Spurs. Not by the numbers (both teams are 5-1, and the Spurs have a higher point differential), but consider this -- the Rockets are doing this with a new coach (Rick Adelman, who is already making Yao Ming look like a good passing big man again), new frontcourt rotation (Luis Scola gives them quality minutes and a non-Dikembe option for when Yao sits), and a dramatically different situation at point guard, where Mikes James and Rafer Alston are giving them 17.5 points, 6.6 assists and nearly 3 three-pointers a game.

The ceiling might be higher here, assuming, of course, that McGrady and Ming finally stay healthy -- and if both teams are at full strength in a playoff, Gregg Popovich will get them past Adelman. I'm just not thinking the Spurs will be healthy.

7) Does Don Nelson does know that the year started and he hasn't retired? Last year's fun-time first-round playoff story, your Golden State Warriors, are 0-5 after a brutal stretch against the Jazz, Cavs and Mavs. They'll get back gun-toting captain Stephen Jackson soon, and they've been fighting flu and other maladies... but if they don't start winning soon, they could be out of this early, with a big long East Coast road trip coming up at the end of the month.

They give up 12 more rebounds than they get per game, shoot a lot worse than the opposition (.506 to .463), don't defend (um, see .506) and are giving up an incredible 46% on three-pointers. Andris Biedrins may be the only decent big man on the roster, which you kind of expect from Nellie Ball, but this is ridiculous. Also telling: they shoot 67% from the line, with nobody on the team over 76%. So if you're behind, foul 'em with impunity, really. Last year's playoff run could be fool's gold (en state), especially if Jackson decides to exercise his Second Amendment rights again...

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