NFL Week 11 Picks: Willfully Stupid

In my day job today, I had one of Those Moments that are why you call it work. A manager wanted to do a really dumb thing. I showed him why it was a really dumb thing. He didn't listen, then made his dumb thing worse.

In moments like this, of course, if you are young, or care about your job and career and employment, you will just want to scream or beat someone down. It's physically painful to be in the presence of Willfully Stupid; it is utterly maddening. It's also something that happens more in the NFL than in any other league, or at least, in more obvious ways.

At least three or four times in just about every game, there will be a moment of Willfully Stupid -- a 3rd and 1 call with a slow developing, straight up the gut running play that gets stuffed, an unnecessary and ineffective blitz, a completely unnecessary penalty, a booming punt into the end zone from the 40... and we're not even going into the breathtaking dumbness that is the announcing.

The NFL is also a place where Willfully Stupid sometimes works. It has the ability to show the team that the coach has such confidence in them that they can more or less tell the opposition what is coming and still pull it off. But in general, you can get a sense of who a team is by counting the Willfully Stupid moments; they are like preventable turnovers, or unforced errors in tennis.

When I'm on the fence with a pick, I try to isolate what I know about teams and pick against the Willfully Stupid... but in many of these moments, I'm as guilty as the team I'm picking against. My eyes told me the Giants stunk early this year, and I picked against them for weeks when they didn't. It took too long for me to accept that the Niners had completely quit on their coach and year. And so on.

Everyone who picks games has the Willfully Stupid teams and trends. The trick, of course, is to become aware of them.

And just because everyone needs more Ed Wood in their lives... I give you Plan 9 for Week 11. It's stupid!



Now, let him finish.

And with that bracing battle cry... on to the picks!

* * * * *

San Diego as a 3-point dog in JACKSONVILLE. Anyone who watched the SNF game knew the Chargers stole a game that they had no right to win, that Philip Rivers looks absolutely lost as a QB, and that Norv Turner might be the worst game-day coach in the NFL. So why take them after a cross-country trip against a Jags team that has spent most of the last month kicking sand in the face of their opponents? Because Jack del Rio may be worse, and because the Chargers defense just strikes me as more opportunistic than the Jags right now.

Cleveland as a 3-point favorite in BALTIMORE. There was an actual Todd Heap sighting last week! It was very exciting, watching him run around, like an actual football player and all. Of course, the good times couldn't last, and Heap of Hurt is again likely to miss a game that his team desperately needs him for. Even if the Ravens had their nominal top receiver, I'm not sure they'd get past this plucky Browns team, who have the best young WR-TE tandem in the league in Edwards and Winslow. Unfortunately for the Browns, Winslow won't stay healthy enough to make this an experienced tandem, but Edwards in the air is just something to see right now.

DETROIT as a 3-point home underdog against the Giants. How can I pick the Lions after their historic rushing non-attack against the Cardinals last week, against a Giants team that looks poised for a bounce-back after getting slapped around by the Cowboys? Because... I'm willfully stupid about how these Giants aren't actually good, and the Lions are just a different team at home and on turf. When your RBs are Jacobs and Droughns, I just don't see you keeping your QB upright against speed rushers on a fast track. Either way, this one will be close. Finally, there's the track record of the Giants under Coughlin in the second half of the year; it ain't good. Both of these second-place teams need this one badly, and both are, in my opinion, good candidates to slip out of the playoff picture late.

New Orleans as a 1 point dog in HOUSTON. This line says two things to me -- that Vegas is bent at the Saints for being inexplicable, and that they think with two more or less blah teams, go with the home team coming off a bye. The critical difference is that the Saints have better talent, especially at QB and WR, and are still in the running for a playoff spot, because their division is basically horrible. In a need game for both teams, I trust Drew Brees a lot more than I trust Matt Schwab.

GREEN BAY carrying 10 against Carolina. I really don't believe that much in this Packers team; if my Eagles wind up getting into the playoffs and having to go to Lambeau, the prospect will not fill me with despair. But at this point, I think I'd comfortably spot any winning team in the NFL 10 points against this Carolina team, who are 28th in the league in yardage, have the choice of a fossil (Testaverde) or a stiff (Carr) at QB, and have seen the total eclipse of Julius Peppers, who has all of a sack and half this year. He won't get any in this game, either.

Kansas City covering 14.5 at INDIANAPOLIS. The world seems to think that the Colts will just shake off two straight losses and a monstrous number of injuries with home cooking and an angry Peyton Manning... but I'm just not seeing it, not even against a Chiefs team that will start Brodie Croyle and won't have Larry Johnson again, either. I think the Colts will win this game, but I also think that they will struggle in the red zone, and with Adam Vinateri missing from short range last week, maybe they don't cash in as much as they should.

Oakland as a 5.5 point underdog in MINNESOTA. If Adrian Peterson were healthy, with the Raiders' recent struggles stopping the run, this would be a double-digit spread and I'd probably take the home team. Without AP, the Raiders will chase down Chester Taylor, who will still get his 100+ combined yards, but won't change the world. Meanwhile on the other side of the ball, Daunte Culpepper gets to wreck vengeance on his old franchise, and could find Jerry Porter more than his customary 3 times a game against a porous Vikings secondary. Vengeance is Daunte's!

PHILADELPHIA covering 10 against winless Miami. The Birds saved their season with their best quarter of the year last week in Washington, and they'll put the hammer down early and often against a Dolphins team that starts rookie John Beck on the road, without any real weapons at RB, WR or TE. With a win, the Eagles would go to .500 and the periphery of the NFC playoff race. With the Patriots looming on the schedule next week, there can be no letdown, and it's hard to see how a rookie QB (albeit a 26-year-old one) making his first start against a Jim Johnson blitz scheme can succeed.

Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite in ATLANTA. A surprisingly meaningful matchup, with the streaking Falcons (2 is a streak) hosting the first place Bucs, who are coming off a bye. It's also a homecoming game for longtime Buc Warrick Dunn, who may be forced to carry the whole load with Jerious Norwood still questionable. I'm looking for the Bucs defense to take advantage of Joey Harrington's mistakes, and for Joey Galloway to carve up the most overrated CB in the game, Atlanta's DeAngelo Hall.

CINCINNATI as a 3-point home favorite against Arizona. The Bengals looked like a completely different team last week with Chris Henry giving them an explosive #3 WR, and with the defense jumping all over a bad, bad, bad Ravens team. I'm looking for them to keep up that momentum against a Cardinals team that frequently doesn't show up outside of the desert, and rarely gets back to back good performances from QB Kurt Warner. The Bengals need to be better in the red zone than they were against the Ravens, and they will be.

JETS covering as 9-point home underdogs against the Steelers. A bit of a trap game for the 7-2 Steelers, who enter the clown portion of their schedule (next week, they get the Dolphins at home on MNF) after taking care of business against the Browns despite special teams breakdowns. I like the Jets, coming off a bye and with Kellen Clemens having extra time to get used to the first team, keeping things close throughout at home.

DALLAS covering 10.5 against the Redskins. Last week's loss to the Eagles just seemed devastating to these eyes for the Redskins, who got three touchdowns from their putrid WRs and then saw their defense fall apart to Brian Westbrook. Now they have to try to save their season on the road against the class of the conference, who have the passing weapons to torture an over matched Redskins secondary. I like Jason Campbell as a QB in the long term, but he doesn't have the weapons to play catch up or win a shootout, both of which will happen this week.

St. Louis as a 3-point favorite in SAN FRANCISCO. Anyone who watched the MNF game, where the Niners did not have a first half first down before a feeble Hail Mary heave before the half, could see that this was a team that was absolutely, positively gutless. Meanwhile, the Rams broke their winless season with a surprisingly potent offensive display in New Orleans. Assuming the weather doesn't make a for a mud slog in the muck at Candlestick, this will be another step back towards respectability for the Rams, who have had two games of the old Marc Bulger and like it very much, thank you. Meanwhile the Niners have to wonder if former #1 overall pick Alex Smith is (a) healthy, (b) an NFL QB. On some level, they are probably hoping for the former, even if that means more of Trent Dilfer.

SEATTLE covering 6 at home against Chicago. I'm on record as saying the Seahawks are better without Shawn Alexander than with, and they'll have another chance to show that this week against a Bears team that scuffled their way past a bad Raiders team after their bye week. The Bears are going to Rex Grossman, which is probably the right play given the team's lack of a truly dominant defense, but it's still hard to imagine the Rex Cannon being better than the hometown bullies and a sizzling Matt Hasselbeck. Once again, the real problem with the Bears... is that they kept the wrong running back.

New England cover 20.5 on the road against BUFFALO. The real line is 15.5, but in my new role as a Top Masstermind, I'm honor obliged to take the Pats with more than the points offered by Las Vegas. This week, that won't be a problem, especially with Marshawn Lynch questionable and the Pats coming off the bye. Finally, true excitement returns to the NFL!

Tennessee as a 2-point dog in DENVER on MNF. This is a tricky game between two teams that I don't trust or understand. The Tennessee defense is the best of the units on the field in this one... but the Denver home-field altitude advantage is considerable, and the Titans offense has been doing the team no favors, with some pundits even calling for the return of Kerry Collins (OK, they are the braying jackasses of ESPN who are probably just trying to be outrageous, but still). I'm looking for Lemdale White to exert his will, and for Jay Cutler to make some big mistakes.

Last week: 8-5-1 (closing in on .500, baby!)
Season: 66-69-9