NFL Picks, Week 9: The Lesser Of Two Evils

This is one of those weeks in picking NFL games that, frankly, just make you feel kind of dirty as a gambler. The best lines on the board are to my eyes, in the hands of the teams that I just can't bring myself to root for... so no matter what happens in the games, it's liable to feel like losing.

This is, of course, part of Just Being An Adult... and as the years fall by, an increasing part of your life. You choose the lesser of two evils when you go to the dentist or get checked for prostrate or OB/GYN issues, or choose the feasible car or against the second donut (or, sigh, even the first one), or make the life insurance payment.

In most of these choices, we just accept it as The Way Life Is. Maybe we even congratulate ourselves for being mature enough to make the right choice, to think beyond the easy call that gives us the possibility of having it all. (All, in this case, would be an Eagles win and a correct pick.)

But when it comes to sports (and also, to be fair, politics), the puling over the lesser of two evils just gets ridiculous. Half of the pre-game hype for the Colts-Patriots AFC championship last year in Blogfrica was about how awful it was that one of these teams was going to win. And I would have probably joined in the chorus, if only I didn't have Peyton Manning on last year's winning fantasy team, which softened me up nicely from my Colts irritation.

Part of this is from the old sports axiom that "styles make fight," which is that when you have teams that don't match up well aesthetically, the end product will be less entertaining to watch. Part of the reason why so many people disliked the Spurs last year wasn't just for the Horry Incident; it was also that the Spurs have gone to two Finals where they matched up horribly with the opponent. No one talked about Spurs-Suns as being boring, but Spurs-Pistons was, despite being a more competitive series. In the NFL, aesthetics don't usually matter that much; any close game is fairly watchable, even if the style of play hurts the eyes.

Anyway... We don't always get to root for what we want to happen. We can choose to feel good or bad about it. Grow up and gamble, or not.

Now, on to the picks!

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TAMPA BAY cover 3.5 over Arizona. Rough couple of weeks for the Bucs, who got thugged up by a Jags team with Quinn Gray at the helm and a Pop Warner playcalling book last week, following a dispiriting loss to God's Own Detroit Lions. (Someone please send tape of the first half of that game to Andy Reid, so that he can become aware that teams can win in the NFL, even today, by committing to the run. He doesn't know this.) They'll get well against a Cardinals team that won't be able to keep the QB upright, or the ball out of the hands of the secondary.

DETROIT covering 3 on Denver. A big, big home field advantage here for the Lions, who get the dome against a Broncos team that got its heart ripped out on MNF by the Brett Favre heroics. Kevin Jones will be a big key here against a Broncos defense that even made the Pack look like they could run the ball. This Denver team misses Javon Walker and Rod Smith more than words can say; when Brandon Stokely might be your best WR, you are entering a new and terrible era of Bronco Football.

TENNESSEE covering 4 against Carolina. The Titans defense has been a major value this year, with Keith Bulluck probably having the best year of any LB in football. They'll enjoy the home field and the continuing magic of David Carr here, who isn't making the Panther fans forget Chris Weinke, let alone Jake Delhomme. If Carr is still in the NFL in two years, that's an indictment of the whole damn league, really.

Green Bay as a 2 point dog in KANSAS CITY. The Chiefs come off a bye while the Pack comes out of Denver on an emotional high. Normally, this is a perfect time to go against the MNF winner, and I'm very tempted to myself... but the Pack is built to stop the run, and the Chiefs have real trouble when they can't get Larry Johnson going. So long as the Pack can keep a lid on Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe, Green Bay's magical year will continue.

San Diego covers 7 in MINNESOTA. The Chargers are on a serious roll right now, and after watching three hours of the Vikes last week... well, it's not hard to see why they've only won 2 games this year. Rivers to Gates will open things up early, LdT will close things out late, and in the middle, you're going to see the Minnesota QB go down a lot, because whoever he is has a WR corps that is, um, looking up at Denver. (Ever notice how you always hear about how QB play has gone down in the league, but no one ever talks about a possible drop-off in talent at WR?)

NEW ORLEANS covering 3 against Jacksonville. The resurgence of the Saints has actually been on both sides of the ball, especially in stopping the run. At home against Quinn Gray, with Maurice Jones-Drew banged up, is just too much for the smashmouth Jags to overcome. Count on Drew Brees continuing his regurgence, and Gray defusing any potential QB controversy. A key to the Saints here will be whether or not Marques Colston can follow up on last week's breakout game against the Niners with a good follow-up performance against an actual defense.

ATLANTA covering 3 agains San Francisco. If there are two worse teams in the NFL, and a worse game on the NFL docket this week... well, I haven't seen it. Even the winless Rams and Dolphins look to be putting up more than a fight than either of these slug teams. I'm going with the Falcons becasue they are coming off the bye, and have had more time to forget how bad they are than the Niners. This may be the most disappointing year in recent memory for Niner Fans, who had to like their chances at ascending in a bad division this year, only to find themselves watching Trent Dilfer.

Washington covering 3 on the road against the JETS. The Kellen Clemens Era finally begins against a Redskins team that got a lot of rest last week by not showing up at all in New England. I'm looking for a bounce-back game for Jason Campbell, who has to get a week when his offensive line isn't trying to get him killed. If the move to Clemens makes for some changes in the Reid-esque pass imbalanced play-calling of Eric Mangini, the Jets could surprise... but the loss of Jonathan Vilma also means that Chris Cooley is bound for glory. Who does Thomas Jones have to kill to get 25 carries in a game?

BUFFALO as a 1-point underdog at home against Cincinnati. This line is hard to figure to me, other than the Bengals inspire a certain foolhardy confidence from having quality offensive skill players. But it's the Bills who seem to have a bit of a defense, have been in every game, and could be a dark horse playoff candidate if they only had not gagged away the Bronco and Cowboy games. With JP Losman playing for a job against a very, very generous defense, I like the Bills winning in a bit of a shootout.

Seattle as a 1.5-point underdog in CLEVELAND. This is one of those picks that will just make you hurt. Do you go for the underdog with presumably more talent, or the home team with the surprisingly good record? This Seahawks team is not in the least bit trustworthy, but they are coming off the bye, while the Browns were in real danger of losing to the winless Rams on the road before Stephen Jackson left the game with an injury. The Browns are doing some things, but they are still at least a year away, and the second half of the season is going to expose that. For the Seahawks, the return of Hackett and Branch makes the disappearance of Strong and Alexander a lot easier to deal with.

New England covering 5 at INDIANAPOLIS. This isn't a good development for the NFL, but I think the Patriots will win this one with low drama. They just have too many weapons, along wth an inhuman focus. While the Colts may also be unbeaten, they are still a team that you can run on, and in a game that feels like a Super Bowl, the chance of a boring blowout are a lot greater than anyone wants to admit. If you want to go with the Colts, you are liking the home field and the fact that the Patriots have fattened up on one of the easiest schedules in recent memory. Like any other Apocalypse Game, bet on it not being close and feeling bored and/or depressed when it doesn't live up to expectations.

Houston as a 3-point dog at OAKLAND. Two teams going in the wrong diretion. Houston was playing the Washington Generals role for the Chargers' emotional home win last week (and if you are counting, the Chargers seem to be trying to be the Patriots West recently with the margin of victory), while the Raiders were getting manhandled, especially on offense, by the Titans. I like the visitors here because (a) the stadium will be more or less empty, negating the usual home-field advantage, and (b) the Raiders have had real trouble stopping the run, which is something the Texans have been better at emphasizing this year. Combine that with the Raiders' problems in keeping the ball secure, and it all adds up to a Texans win.

Dallas covering 3 at PHILADELPHIA. If the Eagles win, they would get back to .500 and be just two games out, a borderline miracle given their horrible performance in close games earlier this year. Unfortunately for them and me, the Cowboys are just better on both sides of the ball, and will be coming into the game fresh from their bye. Unless the Eagles can force turnovers from Tony Romo, or Wade Phillips shows himself to just be a terrible coach in terms of preparing his team for the fairly predictable things the Eagles will want to do... well, it's not hopeless, but it's also not looking very likely. Adding to the pain is the fact that the Cowboys will probably get Owens the ball early and often, and that night games at home tend to bring out the worst in the Eagles and their fans.

PITTSBURGH covering 9.5 against Baltimore. It's a big number for a team facing the Ravens' defense, but the Ravens offense will give the Steelers enough short fields to make it work. Besides, remember the iron-clad rule of MNF -- 90% of the time, the game can't be very interesting. So who do you like in a blowout? Right, the home team with the real offense, who is also at home.

Last week: 8-5
Season to date: 48-60-8