Quick Six NBA Picks

Just because I haven't written anything about the rampant NBA moves of the last week doesn't mean I won't. Six quick winners and losers from the early moves...

Winners

Rockets. The de facto Ron Artest for Trevor Ariza deal doesn't sound like a great deal on name recognition for Clutch City, especially when you consider that Ariza's number for 2008-09 were 8.9 / 4.3 / 1.8 in points, board and assists per game, with just 32% from three point land. But unlike Testy, Ariza is (a) just 24 years old, (b) actually a good defensive player, and (c) not a ticking time bomb of insanity that's on his (gulp) fifth team while being just 29, and (d) got his number in just 25 minutes a game. Testy's 17.1 / 5.2 / 3.3 in 35.5 minutes.

The money is more or less of a wash, with both guys getting too much of it for the fact that if they either is one of your top three guys, you're probably not winning anything. But whereas Ariza will wind up knowing his role and increasing the Rockets' overall nasty defense, Testy is going to chafe under the aged Phil Jackson, taking too many ill-advised threes, and not providing a real check on wing players because he's just too puffed up now at 6'-9" and 260 pounds. Both players were probably better off where they were, since Testy was going to get more shots in a Yao-less situation, and Ariza has a ring to distract people from the fact that his game is limited.... but that's not how the NBA works, really.

(Oh, and as for the Rockets being big winners? No, just because the Yao Injury means they have no easy buckets, potentially ever. Ah well.)

Raptors. One of the things that I like to do with a free agent signing is to not just better your team, but also to directly weaken a rival. By getting Hedo Turkoglu out of Orlando -- and yes, it's obvious that the Turkish Jordan was going to leave for money, especially since the Magic went out and acquired Vince Carter early -- the Raps not only add a player that's part of their Phoenix-esque mindset, but also helped to make sure that Orlando would go and blow up their Finals team of last year. In Toronto, the Turk will get numbers, feed Chris Bosh, and give them a late-game option -- three things thet needed, especially if they want any chance of keeping Bosh as a free agent.

Nets. I hate it when teams stick a fork in their season before it even begins, but at least the Nets are doing it with a small eye towards entertainment, and with a more realistic chance at LeBron James than most. By moving Vince Carter for a young guy I love -- Courtney Lee -- the Nets will be better in the long run, free up cap space, and provide some entertainment value with a very athletic back court of Lee and Devin Harris.

Losers

Magic. I'm not a Vince Carter hater. He can do a lot of things, especially when he's motivated, and it's not like the man has ever really played with a defensive force like Dwight Howard behind him. But what he does just isn't what the Magic do, or at least did, and he just isn't the same kind of happy distributor that Turkoglu is. He also tends to dominate the ball all game long, rather than just in the late going, and that's really not going to keep the Magic focused on defense. Oh, and one last thing -- in an environment where everyone jacks up from the arc, do you really think Vince is going to keep the opposition honest by risking his body on drives to the hole? Um, not so much.

Add it all up, and you've got a move that's better on paper than on the court, for a team that used to be much harder to scheme against. When the blame comes, it'll come on the new guy, too. Enjoy your false hopes, Magic Fan!

Pistons. I hate busting on a team for trying to win now rather than later, but bringing in two offense-only guys (Ben Gordon and Charlie Villaneuva) for crazy money, then backing it up by seemingly going after a defensive martinet of a coach (Avery Johnson). I don't see how there's A Plan here, unless it's that they can't attract any of the premier 2011 class and will just roll the dice with what's available now. But as someone who lived through the Billy King http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifEra in Philadelphia, I can tell you that when you overpay overrated players, even from division rivals, it doesn't end well.

Cavs. I think the Shaq move actually makes sense, if only because they got him for nothing, and Shaq's soft hands down low is going to be a better fit with King James than the spot-up stylings of Ziggy Ilgauskas. But for a team that got murdered on pick and roll in the playoffs to bring in a terrible pick and roll defender at the 5, and to do it after they really needed him... well, it's curious. Then, to fail to acquire a scoring option at power forward just adds to the curiousity, really... but the whole story with Cleveland, and by extension, the entire NBA, is about whether or not the Cavs can impress James enough to keep him in free agency. And, um, to keep him for a price they can afford, both on and off the court, since a Kevin Garnett in Minnesota experience is really not what they want, either...