Monday, March 3, 2008

A Whole New Treadmill

On Saturday night, the Sixers did something they haven't done in six years -- and if you guessed "win a meaningful game", you're close. They beat the Suns in Phoenix, 119 to 114.

Now, Phoenix does look like a different (and much worse) team since the Shaq trade... but my hometown heroes continue to make hay from the backcourt. Andre Igoudala had 32, while Andre Miller had 25 and 13 assists. The other big key to the win was forcing 18 turnovers, which let the Sixers score in transition -- which, given their 95 points per game average, is absolutely crucial for this squad. In the half court, only the guards can create their own shot, and everyone is turnover-prone, especially Iguodala. Plus, you can foul them with impunity.

Coming on the heels of a "there they go again" trashing at the hands of those go-go Warriors, it was big... and with the surprising Rockets continuing to win even in the post-Yao era, it might even point to a Suns-less post-season. Suddenly, this team looks far from fast, and with absolute defensive sieves all over the place (Nash and Hill are willing but unable, Stoudemire, Diaw and Barbosa are neither willing nor able, which leaves an awful lot on the table for Bell and Shaq to try to cover), not being fast enough to outscore the opponent makes them just look like a poor man's... Raptors. Eeek.

There are, of course, two worrisome points that will prevent anyone in town from gettig too excited about the idea of a first round upset over Boston, Detroit or Orlando. The first is that they've suddenly become terrible from the free throw line, led by the slumping Iguodala. Maybe it's fatigue (he's playing 39.3 minutes per game), or maybe it's just teams really keying on him, and making him work at both ends of the floor. (Plus, um, he's really not a #1 player on a good team. But I digress.) In any event, he's shooting from the line for the worst numbers of his career, including a 60% mark for February. At 6+ attempts a game, that's not good. Add in the Shaq-esque 43.5% from starting power forward Reggie Evans, it's just a bad team from the charity stripe -- 70% for the year, worst in the league. That's a five to ten point hole every night they have to overcome, as their opponents shoot 77%.

The second problem is the franchise DNA-level problem of shooting three pointers. Ever since the Kyle Korver trade, they've been much better defensively, but when you need a long ball, your choices are slim, none, and brick city. There's just something about this laundry that has always prevented triples from falling easily. Once again, they are last in the NBA by the numbers, at 31.4%. The opponent shoots 35.8%.

Only a heartless bastard, of course, would note that the Sixers have shuffled the personnel deck to have an aging point guard lead them into a low-tier playoff spot where they will be easily bounced -- you know, just like the post-2000 AI1 Era. But at least this time, we hope, the GM doesn't eat paste. (At $200 bucks a bottle.)

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