Week Five NFL Picks: Unwelcome Drama

Everyone is going to pound on this in previews this week, but if there is a weaker schedule for competitive games than this weekend, I don't remember it. At least a half dozen of these games should finish well over a double-digit final, and if you are still alive in an elimination pool, be prepared to be doing this well into January. Assuming your pool is big enough, I wouldn't count on a full pot, either.

The magic of the NFL's ascension, and the helpful remorra that is fantasy football, is that no one outside of people who write previews much cares about this. Squash games are frequently fantasy gold and make for fat happy covers, so the gambling public is well-fed. As an Eagles fan with the terrible Bucs coming to town this weekend, drama is the very last thing in the world that I want. (But for, say, Oakland at the Giants? Come on, Big Drama.)

At some point, this kind of thing has to make a negative impact on the league, maybe in the ratings of uncompetitive night games. But for now, with the season still more or less new and most of the terrible teams confined to bad media markets, we'll take it as just part of the way we'll build Big Drama later. This weekend, not so much.

Cincinnati at BALTIMORE (-9)

In retrospect, it should have been obvious that the Bengals can't have nice things. Yes, the defense has been quietly competent for almost a year now, but it's not as if Marvin Lewis has become a different coach, or that Cedric Benson would completely forget who he was, or that a team with so little forethought as to allow "Hard Knocks" cameras in wouldn't suffer a nearly catastrophic letdown game against the previously DOA Browns. The fact that they escaped with an overtime win, and should have really won the game in regulation had their kicker simply hit a fourth quarter PAT, doesn't really matter. Last week, the Bengals reminded us all of what they really are, and why they are no great threat for the second half of the year.

It also doesn't help that they're getting a Ravens team that has become the new Raiders -- put down the 9mm, BMore fans, until you hear the context -- when it comes to games against the Patriots. In the Perfectriot year, the Carrion had the game won until a ref screw job. Last week, Tom Brady confirmed his standing as the most loathed player in the league with a pratfall for flag that was positively Soccer Player-esque. If the NFL had any guts, they'd fine Dreamboat for it, it was so egregious. And just like last time, give the white devils their due; New England took the extra chance and won.

I'm fairly sure that Baltimore would have won this game even if they came in fat and happy. The offense will score in the 20s against Cincy, and while the defense isn't as good as it's historical reputation, it's enough to stop Benson and put the game on Carson Palmer's shaky shoulders. But after last week's games? This one's going to be a squash. An angry, violent, and completely justified squash.

Ravens 31, Bengals 6

MINNESOTA (+10) at St. Louis

Oh, is my face red. All of those years of pointing out how Brett Favre was a me-only turnover machine that wasn't conducive to winning football games has blown up in my Favrevy little face. I owe the wizened megalomaniac a deep and sincere apology, followed by a make-good slurp on his Viking war hammer.



Oh, and one last thing? We've been here before. Just about a year ago. Remember?

Take it from a guy that went through the Randall Cunningham Era in Philadelphia: looking totally bitching in October doesn't really do much for you in the long run. And when you've got an ancient turnover machine quarterback that ducks preseason and off-season work so that he can get super media coverage, finishing the year strong does not happen. Won't happen here, either.

This week will mark the highwater point of Purple 4. He'll play a Rams team that is one RB more than a college team, in a "road" game that will be friendlier than the MNF announcers to a Gritty QB. If the Vikings sleep for 45 minutes, the Rams will cover and no one will care. If they come out in full armada mode, with the Viking WRs winning the matchups they should, it will be over at the half. I'm looking for the latter, mostly because Adrian Peterson did not get his numbers last week. That will not happen again.

Oh, and on the off chance that you do not believe that F4 will fade soon? I have him on one of my roto teams. Big smoochy kiss of death atcha there, son.

Vikings 31, Rams 6

Tampa Bay at PHILADELPHIA (-13.5)

There are some very nice things about being an Eagles Fan in the Reid Era. The first point is that we know the owner isn't insane. Jeffrey Lurie mostly stays out of the spotlight, contenting himself with letting his wife run eco-awareness points (the team recycles hard at the stadium, and buys all of its energy from renewable resource suppliers) and showing up at biannual intervals to say nothing of impact. The second is that, for the most part, they win the games they are supposed to win, especially against inexperienced quarterbacks that rely on their legs. And the final point is that if you give Coach Boxer (from "Animal Farm" -- there is a reason why this preview column is Remarkably Unpopular) an extra week to prepare, he turns the opponent into paste.

The Bucs come in fresh from a blown lead loss to the worst Five Hundred Team in history (that'd be the Redskins), which means that they've given Cap'n Andy 60 minutes of tape to see just what Josh Johnson can't do. Add to the equation a still-gimpy Derrick Ward and a not quite ready Antonio Bryant, and you've got a Buc team with one weapon -- tight end Kellen Winslow, who is bound to explode with rage any second now -- that they really need to game plan for, and two weeks to figure out how to do it. On the other side of the ledger, Tampa has a billion Wildcat formations, the return of Donovan McNabb, probable health for Brian Westbrook and DeSean Jackson, and a second straight week on the road. Squash Time.

Eagles 37, Bucs 10

Oakland at NEW YORK GIANTS (-15)

If the Raiders were an NFL franchise... they would be a mildly intriguing play this week. The Giants are going to limit the game plan, either for a gimpy Eli Manning or for just plain Gimp David Carr. Brandon Jacobs hasn't ran with his usual authority, Nmandi Asomugha could conceivably erase Steve Smith, and with a break or two, you have a nice little road cover. David Carr is, after all, nearly as bad as JaMarcus Russell, at least when he faces any kind of a pass rush.

But this is the Raiders. Lead back and fantasy team murderer Darren McFadden is out. Justin Fargas and Michael Bush are good, but not against 9 men fronts from an elite defense at home. None of their QBs belong on a practice squad, let alone an active roster. The WRs do them no favors, but they sure can run fast in an easily covered straight lines after not getting off the line of scrimmage from press coverage. The pass-catching tight end is concussed. And the coach could be fired or arrested (yes, seriously) at seemingly any minute.

In other words, the Giants have a bye this week. It'll just be televised.

Giants 24, Raiders 3

Dallas at KANSAS CITY (-9)

Site contributor Dirty Davey roots for Dallas and DC to go 1-15 every year, with their only win coming on the road at the other's stadium. Personally, I'm getting soft in my old age, and like the drama of seeing them fall apart in December. It's more cruel. But really, how your Cowboy Hate comes out is a personal decision, between you and your maker. Far be it for me to get in the way.

This week, Dallas gets a Chiefs team that has been supplying the NFC East with stress-free wins for weeks. Coach Todd Haley has showed himself to clue-impaired, QB Matt Cassel is regretting his money, and MLB Mike Vrabel is learning that his little ref fans seem to be noticing the new laundry and not quite giving him what he wants. Life's sad that way. Not as sad as this Chiefs team, but still. Time for Tony Romo to get his fantasy owners off the ledge. If it doesn't happen in this matchup, it never will. (But I still like the Chiefs for the last suck-out cover, because Matt Cassel is really good at garbage time touchdowns.)

Cowboys 24, Chiefs 16

Washington at CAROLINA (-4)

The Worst .500 Team Ever goes on the road to a Carolina team that's the NFC version of the Titans -- a run-first team that dominated in 2008, and has slept through 2009. I think the defense shows up for this one with a bye week, and that the Redskins won't be able to move the ball very well. I'm also thinking that Jim Fox is smart enough to start giving the ball to his running backs, and keeping it away from his godawful quarterback. You'd think such a strategy would be obvious, given that his QB is, well, godawful, but somehow it has slipped his notice so far.

As for the Redskins, every week I try to think of something new and novel to say about a team. They make it hard. At some point, you'd have to think that Ladell Betts would get carries here, but in case you are rostering him for fantasy purposes, keep in mind that for every handcuff that eventually provides value, there are an equal or greater number of guys that when they get the top role, show why they haven't. It boggles the mind that after years and years of Daniel Snyder buying every shiny thing he could on the free agent market, his skill players are just so freaking pedestrian. Doesn't he know that if you're going to treat your team like a fantasy football franchise, you should at least get some guys that are good in fantasy football? I can't be the only one who is wondering why the Antwan Randel El Era has been longer than the average NFL career.

Carolina 24, Redskins 13

CLEVELAND at Buffalo (-6)

Some actual friskiness from the Browns last week, as they took extra time to lose to the Bengals behind QB Derek Anderson, who showed the world that your terrible offense is somewhat less terrible when you make the defense guard more than the first five yards past the line of scrimmage. Revolutionary! Perhaps it will even take in Buffalo, where Captain Checkdown Trent Edwards has inspired the fanbase to rise up in song. No, really. Give it a listen:



I'm thinking it's not really a good sign for your playoff chances when the fans are writing songs like this, really. Or when you employ Terrell Owens. Come on, Browns, come through for the road upset and give us the press conference we're all dreaming of. Besides, with Braylon Edwards gone, I'm expecting a game or two of euphoria, and maybe even a play or two from Chansi Stuckey.

Browns 23, Bills 20

Pittsburgh at DETROIT (+11)

What was looking like an entertaining game (in that the Lions would have put some points on the board with promising rookie QB Matthew Stafford finding WR Calvin Johnson after falling behind) is looking significantly less entertaining now that Stafford is banged up. Sure, Daunte Culpepper is reasonably talented for a backup QB, but he's also Daunte Culpepper, which means that if you own the Pittsburgh defense in fantasy, it's time to feel good about life again.

For the Yinzers, can scattershot RB Rashad Mendenhall come through with back to back weeks of usefulness? I have my doubts, but I also have my doubts about WR Santonio Holmes, who looked like a world-beater early and a fantasy team-killer late. But while I'm not sure where the numbers will come from, I have no doubts that they will come. It's the Lions. And the Steelers don't sleep on bad teams -- though this year, until Mr. Polamalu returns, they do give up points to them.

Finally, there's this. With rampant unemployment and depression in the greater Michigan area, count on this being a de facto home game for the yellow and black. The new regime in Detroit is doing things the right way, and deserve better. They'll cover here, but only just.

Steelers 31, Lions 21

ATLANTA at San Francisco (-2.5)

Many doubts about this Falcons teams, and love for the Niners after last week's defensive immolation against the barely breathing Rams last week. (A small note of thanks to the Rams, who wound up costing me huge in a head to head league when the opponent had the Niners defense. Had you simply sat on the ball all game, I'd have won by 25 points. Please have the decency to lose all sixteen games now.)

But it's not like the Falcons are in any way bad, or that Shaun Hill is going to go through the entire year as a mistake-free game manager. This is the week where they miss Frank Gore, because Matt Ryan is not Kyle Boller, and the Falcons are not the Rams. The Niner offense is going to have to score to win this game, and while the Falcons defense are not world-beaters, they aren't terrible, and they'll be fresh off a bye. I like their chances to pull the upset here, and to further confirm the nation's ill feelings about the NFC West.

Falcons 24, Niners 20

HOUSTON at Arizona (-5.5)

The fantasy football pinball game of the week, with the two teams most likely to make the over matching up for a game in the desert. In reality, both of these teams are nothing more than entertaining frauds; the Cardinals have a little more in the air, a little less in the run, and neither team has a defense. If you have real confidence in either club, you may have a gambling problem. (Defined here as one where you lose money.)

The troubling turn for the Texans is that running back Steve Slaton hasn't been as good as his rookie year so far, and has shown a disquieting tendency to put the ball on the ground. So has his backup, the truly worthless Chris Brown, leading the team to give single-note castoff Ryan Moats a few turns, and to try out the usual suspects of street meat. From where I sit, this seems like impatience masquerading as motivational moves, and wonder how many times in NFL history has this exact same scenario has played out. In my youth, Wilbert Montgomery (who, frankly, Slaton resembles) would put the ball on the ground for the Eagles, and they'd wring their hands about it and, well, keep giving him the ball, because he was great at everything else, and the thought was that they could coach that last problem out of him. The Giants had the same issue with Tiki Barber and lately Brandon Jacobs. It seems more like a litmus test of the coach than the player, and as such, it's a nice little window into whether Gary Kubiak will ever get past the Mediocre But Intriguing level of coaching. I have my doubts.

The Cardinals have the bye, the home crowd, the weapons to put up 30+ points by the end of the third quarter, and the knowledge that this is one of those games that they should be able to keep Kurt Warner clean. That should be enough, especially if the defense can keep Andre Johnson from cementing his status as the best wideout in the league. Larry Fitzgerald has, predictably, ceded the crown once the Cardinals had their full complement of wideouts back available to them. As for who wins this game, last team to hold serve, and in that case, the line is too large.

Cardinals 38, Texans 34

NEW ENGLAND at Denver (+3.5)

Denver's total domination road to a perfect season moves to hosting the justly put-upon Patriots, who have yet to face a team that wasn't undefeated this year. New England managed a win last year when Dreamboat Brady cried like a little girl until the refs complied with league directions to give him the 15-yard flag for having a defender near him. No, seriously. Even Patriots Fan felt a twinge of what humans call shame for that call, but then they remembered that when they made the deal with Satan before the Tuck Game, the Grandfather of All Liars did tell them that it wasn't always going to be pretty. For any of us, really.

On the road in Denver, expect a lot of Wes Welker on safe underneath routes and patient running from Fred Taylor et al, and for the visitors to avoid white-hot CB Champ Bailey, even though this means sacrificing Randy Moss for the day. I'd also count on Brady using his tight ends more, as has been the case so far this year, and if you own Brady in your roto league, try to console yourself over the fact that this is the year in which he turns into a more whiny Eli Manning. At least until November and December, when he realizes that the knee is OK and the schedule gets easy.

Turning to Greatest Winner in NFL History Kyle Orton, it's a testament to the man's greatness that, like the great Milton Berle in contests involving the size of his manhood, he never shows more than he has to. You and I may see too-fast checkdowns, erratic deep balls that depend on the wideout adjusting before the corner, shaky clock command, nervous feet, bad fundamentals and at least two to three throws a game that should be picked but aren't as all signs that he's just the luckiest guy in the league, and someone who might have lost his job by now had the Bengals simply knocked the ball down in Week One. That kind of assessment can lead a man to pick against Denver every week, certain that the luck will finally even out. But The Greatest Winner in NFL History knows better, and just continues to do just enough to win, baby, because he's Pure Magic.

In other news, I'm rooting for knee injuries to both QBs.

Patriots 23, Broncos 15

Jacksonville at SEATTLE (NL)

Here is where picking the games early in the week just kills you in gambling, both on players and on teams. Seneca Wallace is, I am convinced, a terrible quarterback. His accuracy isn't quite JaMarcus Russell, only because he's got kind of a noodle arm. If he plays, you can take the value of sneaky good plays like John Carlson and Nate Burleson and toss them in a rain-soaked hamper, then invite Najeh Davenport over for an all-bran breakfast. (What can I tell you; some guys go for the dick jokes, but I'm more of a poop man. Especially since You Crap The Bed pulled in the big sponsorship money. The suppositories are on me!)

If Matt Hasselbeck can come back and play effectively with the bruised ribs, I like the home team's chances to play off their usual strong home field advantage and put the Jags to sleep. If Wallace is in their with his stinky cheese (we've tested it on Gromit), David Garrard will have the chance to get his feet set and take the pressure off Pocket Hercules Jones-Drew. It really is that big of a swing.

But since I have to go now, and Hasselbeck was taking snaps in practice today, give me the home team. Too many weapons, and a QB that can actually use them.

Sehawks 24, Jaguars 20

INDIANAPOLIS at Tennessee (+4.5)

After a catastrophic 0-4 start to the season, the Titans get the division's once and future kings in a night game that NBC is probably desperate to swap out, but can't. Meanwhile, Peyton Manning continues to play more games at night than during the day, because the NFL feels that he's wildly underexposed. If you are less than thrilled with the Year Of Manning Constantly, hope for an injury to the offensive line or linchpin tight end Dallas Clark -- both of which happened last year, when the Colts were stoppable. This year, not so much, especially with rookie running back Donald Brown giving them a closer.

The Titans can, of course, win this game, in the same way that they beat the Colts last year; smack Manning around on defense and run Chris Johnson and Lendale White for 40 carries. But for whatever reason -- the absence of Albert Haynesworth leading to a defense that always makes them play from behind or with a long field, the league suddenly realizing that Kerry Collins is, in fact Kerry Collins, Jeff Fisher having an off year, the franchise being cursed to never, ever win again for the liberties they took with the Terrible Towel last year -- that hasn't worked in 2009. It's also hard to see how it's going to magically start working, and when your hopes for the future involve Vince Young, color me skeptical. Unless the Titans come out in the Wildcat or something.

Colts 31, Titans 20

NEW YORK JETS at Miami (+1.5)

The Dolphins get another game under the lights to more or less eliminate their home field advantage, since the opponent won't have to suffer with full Florida sun and fun. They also get a Jets team that got its nose bloodied in New Orleans, but still had a more or less unbowed defense.

So this one will come down to which inexperienced QB (Matt Sanchez for New York, Chad Henne for the Fins) makes the big mistake, since both defenses should take away the running game. It's not really the cut-and-dried choice that you might think. Henne is very cautious, with only 1 career pick in 53 throws, and he's working with wideouts that he knows well. Sanchez has already tossed 5 in his first 110 attempts and fumbled another 5 balls, with two of those being lost. He'll also get to work with the freshly minted and probably highly confused Braylon Edwards, and the fact that the only "big name" wideout that I can remember changing teams once the season started is Roy Williams... well, um, that's not exactly a blueprint for success.

The Jets are much better on the lines, and the Dolphins skill players, with the exception of Ronnie Brown, are pretty terrible. (My favorite moment of the year to show that fantasy honks who just look at box scores will lose: Ted Ginn Jr. going into witness protection after his "big game" against the Colts, where he had numbers and game-losing drops.) I think that the Jets will force Henne into more mistakes than the Dolphins will do to Sanchez, and that Edwards will create enough of a distraction to get Dustin Keller and Jericho Cotchery off. But if they do lose this game -- and it's very possible -- the whispers that Rex Ryan and Sanchez really aren't ready for prime time, or for winning away from the Meadowlands, will begin. And with good reason.

Jets 24, Dolphins 20

Last week: 5-9

Season to date: 29-32-1