Week 7 NFL Picks: These Picks Just Don't Like Each Other

Is these a bigger announcer cop-out than "These teams just don't like each other!" It's a darn shame, really. They used to get along famously, taking turns forfeiting games so that no one would get hurt, sharing playbooks and film rather than trying to trick each other, helping people up after tackles and declining bad penalty calls. Now, just look at them - fighting for every play, refusing to consider the feelings of each other's fans, and being just plain greedy about winning. It's sickening.

Well, I'll tell you something, Dear Reader... these picks just don't like each other, either. They started off 6-1 last week in the early games, with nothing but a half point separating them from perfection, only to see the late games give up the money and stumble to .500. When you have something like that happen, you can be sure that the next week's practices are going to be a little more intense, with lots of after-the-whistle hitting and fights. Now, let's see if they can put that kind of aggression to work where it counts. Because winning is a great deodorant, in that it doesn't smell like flopsweat, failure, and store-brand oatmeal, which is how I punish myself after gambling losses.

And with that... on to the picks!

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INDIANAPOLIS at St. Louis (+14)

Will the Rams go winless? It hardly seems possible for a team in the NFC West, but far be it for me to deny these crazy kids their shot at history. Short of RB Stephen Jackson (who really should be traded to a contender, but that's a whole 'nother kettle of why the NFL isn't as fun as it should be), journeyman TE Randy McMichael and oft-injured oft-idiotic WR Donnie Avery, I'm not sure that any of their offensive starters could work for anyone else in the league as starters.

If you're looking for a late cover, Marc Bulger has looked frisky for the past two games, and they gve the Jaguars a game last week. The problem with that moment of undue optimism is that the Jags always play down to the level of the opponent, while the Colts do not. There's also the fact that the Colts are coming off a bye, which means the speed rushers will *definitely* get to Bulger, and Peyton Manning seems to like putting up Big Numbers, since that's the way to make sure that everyone remembers he's the MVP. I'd probably take the Colts +20 here; Jackson will get some yards and might even finally score a touchdown this year, but this offense just doesn't take games off.

Colts 34, Rams 13

Minnesota at PITTSBURGH (-4)

Why are the Steelers favored in this game? The Vikings are undefeated, have the gunslingerest QB that ever gunslingered, and unlike the home team, are relatively healthy, especially on the defensive line. They also have the best RB in the game in Adrian Peterson, a tremendous set of wideouts with Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin, and a genuine threat at TE with Visanthe Schiancoe. With the old man not throwing picks, they are no worse than a top five team.

Or, well, are they? They needed a miracle to take out the Niners at home. They nearly coughed up a big lead last week against the Ravens. The schedule has been fairly kind, and a road game in Pittsburgh is clearly stepping up in class.

There is also the fact that the public likes the Steelers and wants to bet them. They are also the defending Super Bowl champions, at home, and are highly likely to pick Saint Bretty a few times in this game, because Senor Gunslinger is most prone to the internal deep ball pick, which is to say, where the Steelers get the majority of their picks anyway.

To me, this is a toss-up game, which makes me tempted to take the Vikings just for the points. But I cant shake the idea that Rashard Mendenhall will give the Vikings enough to worry about in the running game to give Ben Roethlesberger time to throw, and when Joe Flacco riddles you with dump offs to a scatback, Big Ben can do more than that. Should be a hell of a game.

Steelers 24, Vikings 17

NEW ENGLAND at Tampa Bay (+15)

Welcome back to the Bad Old Run it Up Patriots, who led by 45 at the half last week at home against the DOA Titans. Way to take your bye week early, Tennessee; I didn't know an NFL team could go 60 minutes with a single positive passing yard. (Total: 2 for 14, -7 yards, 2 picks.) Honestly, I don't know what it is about teams quitting in the snow in Boston, but this game was remarkably like the Cardinals foldo last season, only less competitive. It also, of course, cost me bitterly, as one of my opponents saw Randy Moss go off for 30+ points in a half. That was fun.

This week, the Bucs have to be looking at the footage of last week and wondering if they are next for the Confetti Bucket Brigade. Historically, I'd almost be looking for that, because the Bucs had enough defensive players with pride that would break something from that kind of mean spiritedness... but not under Radio Raheem Morris. The Bucs have real issues covering deep balls, and this week is going to see a lot of those. It's 2007 all over again, at least for one more week. Maybe Tampa should bring in Joey Galloway for the week to tell them about the Patriots playbook, but that, of course, assumes that Joey actually knew anything about it...

Patriots 45, Bucs 24

San Francisco at HOUSTON (-3)

A real puzzler of a pick. Do you go with the tough-minded defensive team coming off a bye following an all-day clowning, or the perplexing offensive flakes that finally put together a good win last week, despite still having major issues in the run game, and is just primed to suck you in with another tease game moment? So many very bad choices, really.

I'm going to go with the Texans, mostly because the last Niner defensive effort was really that terrible, and I'm really not seeing any benefit in force-feeding rookie WR Michael Crabtree to the starting lineup when he probably doesn't know more than a half dozen plays. This way, especially with tough but talentless QB Shaun Hill, lies turnovers.

On the other side of the ball, WR Andre Johnson is putting to bed any notion that he isn't the best in the game at his position, and the Niners won't get to QB Matt Schaub enough to prevent that hookup from happening repeatedly. There's also finally this: when in doubt, bet against the team from the NFC West.

Texans 31, Niners 20

GREEN BAY at Cleveland (+7)

The Packers were supposed to get their offensive line fixed during the bye week, with starting left tackle Chad Clifton returning to eliminate that problem of QB Aaron Rodgers constantly hitting the turf. Clifton did return for last week's game against the Lions, but did not stay, and while the Pack still won easily, it was more from the charity of Lion QBs Dante Culpepper and Drew Stanton.

If you're a Packer fan, you've got to be worried that the team won't be able to overcome this line. RB Ryan Grant has been healthy and had moments, but the line is so bad that his per carry average has been like last year, when he had hamstring issues. You also, of course, have to wonder why Brett Favre turned into an undefeated lack of turnover machine in your most hated rival's laundry. But I'm assuming that the meth that you are shooting into your eyeballs every time the purple enters your field of consciousness takes care of that.

This week, I suspect we'll see something similar to the Lions game, as Browns QB Derek Anderson continues his troublesome relationship with accuracy, and the defense eventually gives up. It will be closer than the final score, but that's only because Anderson is due to start forcing things, which means TAInt Time. Just a couple more weeks until NBA season, Cleveland Fan.

Packers 31, Browns 20

SAN DIEGO at Kansas City (+5.5)

In the close but not quite MNF loss to the Broncos at home that more or less ended the AFC West race, Chargers coach Norv Turner encapsulated why he's such an epic failure as a game-day coach. With RB LaDanian Tomlinson ripping off nice chunks of yards, Norvalicious chose to take LdT out on 3rd and goal from the two, then gave the ball to change-of-pace back Darren Sproles on a gimmick draw. The Broncos stuffed it as cold as Ray Lewis did to Sproles on the game-ending home loss to the Ravens while Tomlinson fumed on the sidelines. It's just a shame that we had already played You Crap The Bed for the week, because Norvy used every inch of the mattress on that one. You have to admire the man's abilities in coverage.

This week, the presumably desperate and angry Bolts will get a road game in KC, a place where they've historically struggled, against the no longer winless Chiefs, who took advantage of the Redskins' charity for a not terribly surprising upset win last week on the road. I keep waiting for this Bolt team to just mutiny on the offensive plays and call their own, rather than continue to to follow the Norved One. It couldn't hurt, because there's only one man on the field on Sunday that can keep the Chargers, with their talent level, anywhere near the Chiefs. His name is Norv, and Bolt Fan should really treasure him while he can. It's genuinely hard to squander this much talent.

Chargers 34, Chiefs 20

New York Jets at OAKLAND (+7)

A small aside. One of the things that happens with this blog is that it gets mirrored on another site, under the idea that this will increase site views and visibility and keep me in gum money. I have my doubts about this, but haven't seen fit to pull the plug on it (yet). (And as an aside to that site's ever-changing cast of "editors", Hi, Mirror Site! Hugs and kisses!)

Anyway, in last week's notes column on Raiders-Eagles, Raider Fan that read the mirror site went off on me for not giving props to his team in the midst of what they are hoping will be a season (and in the case of JaMarcus Russell, perhaps career-changing) win. You see, a home win against a team that misses multiple field goals, calls timeouts when they don't have them, drops a half dozen passes and calls 50+ passing plays on a day when the rushing game is racking up yards against a defensive line that's recording a half dozen sacks... well, that just means the home team has Heart, and Team Spirit, and Excellence In Execution and whatever else is available in ten pound sacks down at the garden supply store.

In other words, after relentless exposure to the toxic levels of bullsquat and bad football that is Raiderball, the fanbase has been compromised. If you're a Raider fan now, you are well and truly delusional, a full-time Kool-Aid drinker, last in the bunker with Al, wondering how you can get closer, closer to the man and his aura even as those around you stiffen and gag from the stench of decay. You defend the WRs when they turn in a catch-free day by noting how well they blocked on TE Zach Miller's touchdown. You explain away the closeness of the final score with referee puling. And with just one more win this week against a suddenly reeling Jets team that got completely sabotaged by their rookie QB at home against the Bills last week, you're going to think that you've got Big Momentum.

And, truth be told... I kind of like your chances. I did, after all, think you were going to be a .500 team this year in the preseason, before I saw just how badly JaRuss was going to stink it up.

Justin Fargas ran really hard last week. The Jets lost cornerstone DT Kris Jenkins to injury last week. The Jets' best remaining defensive asset, shutdown CB, Darelle Revis, will have absolutely nothing to do in this game. Jets QB Matt Sanchez has been a turnover machine all year, and now that his security blanket #1 WR (Jerricho Cotchery) is on the shelf, he's forcing every throw to a guy (Braylon Edwards) who doesn't know the playbook. The Raiders should have Nmandi Asomugha back this week. The Jets probably won't have Cotchery. I'd say the home team is going to get at least 3 picks this week, and JaRuss is usually not accurate enough for more than two a game on hit own self.

Add it all up, and you get a vibe that supports an upset more than a cover. Two in a row before being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs? Extra blood for everybody in the Davis box this week!

Raiders 24, Jets 17

Buffalo at CAROLINA (NL)

Thomas Jones, a nice enough RB whose death in fantasy football was wildly overstated this year, ran for over 200 yards last week against this Bills team. So why won't DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart do well over 250 yards on the ground at home this week? The short answer, of course, is that they'll probably do more like 300, assuming that Jake Delhomme doesn't turn the ball over on his 12 to 15 pass attempts on the day. (Note to Jake: Do not turn the ball over on your 12 to 15 pass attempts on Sunday.)

Buffalo counters, in all likelihood, with the super scamper power of backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is now on his third team of announcers talking about his Harvard education and community college arm. (And honestly, Vegas, you aren't going to give a line over the difference between Captain Checkdown Edwards and the Crimson Scourge here? Grow a pair.)

On the other hand, Ryno sure does scamper a lot, and I'm sure all of the defensive players on the other team feel much better for pounding the internal organs of a Harvard man. At least when Terrible Owens gives him crap in the huddle for not throwing the ball to him, Ryno can answer him in Latin. Or snobese. By the end of this season, Terrible will be begging for the arm strength of Jeff Garcia.

So with both teams strictly in game manager mode, this is the game for you... if you like your football to look more like when the ball resembled a watermelon, and forward passes were only done by that commie Don Hutson. A nice point to remember for the next time you're stuck near a run only traditionalist, because this game will be about as pretty as, well, Ryno's game. (CAP'N ANDY, IGNORE THIS PREVIEW. IT DOES NOT APPLY TO YOU. RUNNING THE BALL IS GOOD. RUNNING THE BALL IS YOUR FRIEND.)

Panthers 24, Bills 13

CHICAGO at Cincinnati (-1.5)

Two teams on hard times. The Bears blew their bye week return with sloppy red zone play in Atlanta, while the Bengals kept forgetting to cover the screen pass against the Texans, and lost their defensive reason for being, DE Antwan Odom. This week, we get the Vengeance Game to end all Vengeance Games from Cedric "The Avenger" Benson, who has reinvented himself in Porkopolis and who I really should be selling high on.

If Odom weren't hurt, I'd be all over the tabbies here. The Bears just seem snakebit this year, and RB Matt Forte's fumbling problems last week in Atlanta are officially worrisome. But now that I'm pretty sure that the Bengals won't be able to get a push without a blitz, the pendulum swings back to the visitors, despite Benson. As the line shows, it's a coin flip game, and in that, I'd rather go with the defense that's closer to complete, or at least, has had longer to learn how to live without their best player. (Remember, the Bears lost MLB Brian Urlacher in Week One. Bear Fan, especially, has not forgotten this.)

Bears 24, Bengals 21

ATLANTA at Dallas (-4.0)

Dallas comes to this game off a bye, while the Falcons held off the Bears at home. What struck me from that game was how the Falcon defense, without really crossing the line to good, was just opportunistic and plucky, especially in the red zone. They turned Matt Forte into a goal line fumbler early, then took advantage of Orlando Pace jumping offsides late. You can fault the Bears for such things, or you can credit the defense... But what you can not do, usually, is expect that to continue the next week on the road. Except here.

I don't mean to overstate the case against Tony Romo; he's at least a top half QB, and if you give him WRs that can take advantage of the extra time that he usually can buy, he can look a lot better than that. But when your WRs are this underwhelming (Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton especially), you aren't going to get big numbers without missed tackles. That won't happen this week against the Falcons.

I hate going against a home team at night, coming off a bye. But it's not as if Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and Roddy White all won't see success this week, or that Cowboy Fan is so enraptured with his team that they enjoy an unquestioned home field advantage.

Finally, this. Is Wade Phillips really a coach that you think can take advantage of more time to prepare? Look for Atlanta to do no less than cover, and maybe even win.

Falcons 27, Cowboys 24

NEW ORLEANS at Miami (+7)

Another game in which the Dolphins will try to play ground away against a terrifying offense, but with a key difference - the Saints just might be good at stopping the run. Hidden inside the pinball antics of last week's de-pantsing of the Giants was this; Brandon Jacobs didn't do much despite playing in front of his peoples (I swear the number of tickets he bought for this game kept rising during the pre-game shows), and Ahmad Bradshaw didn't rule the world, either.

New York's secret to road success is a punishing ground game (ARE YOU LISTENING, CAP'N ANDY?), but the Saints are allowing less than four yards per carry this year. If they keep doing that, the NFC math gets simple. You just count the number of teams that are more explosive or who might have home field in a title game. Zero and zero.

The last we saw of Chad Henne, he was making The Leap against the Jets on MNF. That looks a lot less impressive now, and I remain a believer in this NO team, especially now that Lance Moore is back to give them another fearless slot and sticks mover. If the Fish want to win this game, they are going to have to injure Drew Brees, and that's not how you bet.

Saints 31, Dolphins 16

ARIZONA at New York Giants (-7)

New York is, really, the only failed stop in the NFL history of Kurt Warner, and he gets a prime-time shot at vengeance in a suddenly compelling matchup. Last week on the road in Seattle, the Cards put together a dominating effort, with Warner doing his hyper-efficient game management routine while the defense took advantage of the wounded Seattle OL to look like last year's good games.

Meanwhile in the Big Easy, the Giants defense was coming unglued against Drew Brees in a surprisingly uncompetitive game. If you had set the line for this one last week, it would have been at least a touchdown different.

Like an increasing number of games, this one will change strongly from who makes the game. The Cards are hoping to have the increasingly fragile Anquan Boldin, while the Giants are hoping for health from Mario Manningham, as well a presumably recovered Eli Manning.

The Giants would do well to get their running game untracked to keep Manning clean, because it's feeling like a tough weather year in the East, and his arm will go to hibernation mode soon enough. I think that the Giants will run for some big plays this week in a bit of a shootout; the blue secondary showed more than a few holes last week. Besides, the night game helps us all avoid that 1pm EST West Coast road team problem...

Giants 31, Cardinals 27

Philadelphia at WASHINGTON (-7)

I suppose it would strain my credibility (hah!) to insist that I was always going to call this game for DC, even independent of the events of last week. But seriously, I was. Consider the following:

+ Jim Zorn went 2-0 last year against Andy Reid

+ Reid's lifetime record against DC is something like 4-3,000 (note: perception, not reality)

+ Jason Campbell is only in the NFL for what he's done to the Green

+ Donovan McNabb broke the Skins back when he not only could run, but wanted to

+ The Green are the only NFC East team that DC has any good recent feelings about

+ These games are always nut-huggingly close because (theme alert! theme alert!) These Teams Just Don't Like Each Other

The simple fact of the matter is that DC is built to cause problems for the Eagles. They have a commitment to running the ball, a competent pass catching TE (the publicly endowed Chris Cooley), and an overall talent level that causes the Eagles to think that everything will be easy, so they sleepwalk until panic, at which point they throw and throw and throw until the panic is justified.

They also generally follow up turd-tastic losses with stinky, stinky wins, and Skins Fan hates this team so much that any road lead could snowball. But that's just not my laundry this year.

Eagles 17, Redskins 13

Last week: 7-7

Year to date: 45-44-1