End of the line

As NFL Free Agency moves into the hyper-mode stage that makes some kinds of fans damn near nauseous with uncertainty (you know who you are, Tracer Bullet), there's been high amounts of turnover in the Eagles defensive secondary. Clearly, it's the end of an era, and it's something that requires comment. I speak, of course, about Sean Considine's decision to sign with Jacksonville.

Who of us could ever forget when Considine first made his presence felt in the lineup? With his combination of not quite enough size and not quite enough speed, he was, well, white. Frequent contributions on special teams, and the fact that he didn't play corner while getting roasted against the Patriots in the Super Bowl, made us all realize that he wasn't, in fact, Matt Ware. That was important.

In 2005, he was drafted in the fourth round, out of Iowa. In 2007, he was a starter as the Eagles decided that Michael Lewis was a better author than football player. After suffering an injury, he got Wally Pipped by Quentin Mikell, much to the relief of Eagle Fans who liked him well enough on special teams, but weren't too thrilled to see opposing team's seam routes and tight ends rack up the yards.

And now, he goes to just another AFC team, which is nice, in that we'll probably never have to see him in the wrong laundry, getting his revenge. But personally, I'm going to be ordering his 37 number in teal (it's slimming!) and wearing it to the Linc next year, just to show the current regime how bent I am that they wouldn't sign the same old talent when they are so far under the cap. You'll also be hearing me on sports talk tadio, sounding as if I've lost a family member. It's only right.

(And seriously... Godspeed, Dawk. See you in Canton.)

Now Available: The Best RB in Franchise History

The Jaguars did the sensible but cold-blooded thing today by releasing Fred Taylor, who would have cost five million on their cap to be the clear second choice behind Maurice Jones-Drew in a backfield that clearly didn't need a 33-year-old speed back, no matter how accomplished (and maybe even still competent) he might be.

Considering how badly the Jags struggled last year on chemistry issues it was a little surprising to axe their captain and longtime vet in cold February blood, but not quite... because, well, it's the NFL, the only sports league where being heartless about your veterans is usually a winning PR play, since so many people decide to spend the entire off-season pretending to be general managers.

Rejoicing in the news, of course, are Jones-Drew's fantasy owners, who now get to see what their treasured back does as the lead. The answer, in all likelihood, is get hurt and lose touches in the red zone, because there's a reason why smart teams go to committee and/or limit the touches of their main guy to involve a lot of screens and outside tosses... but why rain on their parade today? Clearly, J-D's on his way to Top 5 RB status. It just won't be on my team. (Oh, and J-D owners? Prepare to hate on Vulture Greg Jones. Big-time.)

As for Taylor, I suspect that he'll catch on with some team, for the simple reason that he's still a plus back, capable of doing more than running with the ball, and probably wants to go out with better than a 3.9 yards per carry mark that he was saddled with this year. Besides, the man wants to pass John Riggins on the all-time yards rushing list, and that's something every American can support.

Besides, for a guy with a 4.6 yards per carry average and 70 career touchdowns who was effective not very long ago (witness his '07 year), he's probably earned an ill-fitting jersey or two.

And if you really want to end it sadly, Fred, the Redskins could use a back-up.

MNF Notes: Texans-Jaguars

In a game that I was only watching for fantasy purposes (honest!), the Texans continue their odd defensive mastery of the highly disappointing Jags, who look like they've just quit on coach Jack del Rio. Given that del Rio doesn't seem very smart and that the organization keeps doing things like paying Jerry Porter a lot of money to not catch footballs for them, I can see the logic in the decision. A few points...

> I'm not one for caring too much about a jersey; laundry is laundry, and it's not like my Eagles have impeccable taste in clothing, especially when they go with those black things that literally everyone I know hates. But the red-on-red that they are wearing looks like it belongs in I-AA or the CFL. Seriously, people, change that, or risk a very long gestation period that will resemble the Buccaneers' tangerine orange days.

> When Matt Jones and his very occasional ability to get off the line of scrimmage is your best receiver -- and maybe it's actually tight end Mercedes Lewis, who they don't throw to enough -- you shouldn't win a lot of games. I'm not sure how this team was good last year, in retrospect, but I'm prone to underrating the importance of the offensive line.

> Speaking of Jones, you've never seen a guy with more skills who does less. Tall, strong, fast, blah.

> You'd never know that Houston is a terrible defensive team from watching this game tonight. Or that David Garrard is a threat to run at quarterback. He looked pudgy to me tonight.

> After scoring their first points tonight (a short field goal), del Rio chose to go for an obvious onside kick, with two kickers on the field, that was recovered fairly easily by the Texans. A long Steve Slaton screen later, and the Texans had the field goal back. It's not as if their defense was really struggling, either. del Rio's confidence in his defense wasn't, um, encouraging.

> With 12:21 left and a fourth and goal from the five, del Rio chose to go for it, rather than kick a field goal. Garrard stumbled coming away from center, then threw it up for grabs for an incompletion. And that, honestly, was the ball game, though it got points-wacky at the end.

> According to the MNF chuckleheads, Sage Rosenfels would do his mid-air breakdance fumble against the Colts again. No, seriously. Honestly, there's a reason why Sage Rosenfels should not start NFL games.

> With 2:45 left and the game out of reach, Maurice Jones-Drew took a ball out of the flat and proceeded to head-smash his way through three guys. MJD might not have a terribly long career, but you've still got to love the guy.

> Fred Taylor picked up his 70th touchdown in the late going, setting a new Jaguars team record (Jimmy Smith had 69). Considering how many years he got vultured at the goal line or fought lingering injuries, it really is a meaningful mark... and while he's not exactly someone you think of when you say the words "Hall of Fame", he probably gets there.

> I'd like to really thank the Jags' for failing to touch or care about Steve Slaton late, who took it to the house on his last two carries of the game, doubling his fantasy points for the game and putting me back in first in my points league. Way to show some holiday spirit! You're too kind!

Epic Drop: Jaguars Preview

Another one, and man alive, what do you say about the Jaguars that hasn't already been said? Take a click and see.

Patriots-Jaguars Quasi Live Blog: Fourth Quarter

On a huge 3rd and 5 at the start of the quarter, Wilford makes a great catch, then gets an extra 15 from the late hit from Model Citizen Rodney Harrison. Patriot Fan is Outraged, and will call its solicitor! Garrard finally runs and gets nine. On second and one, they stay basic with Fred for the first. Williams gets wide open and collects a rare bad ball for another 25, and the Jags are at the 21. Garrard avoids Harrison on a blitz and throws incomplete. MoJo shows he's special with a 3 yard gain. Simms shows he's an idiot by saying they don't need a touchdown, and MoJo slams out a first from a toss in the flat to avoid the blitz. First down, Jags at the Patriots 9, and MoJo tells the crowd to shush. Don't do that, Mojo, those people have long memories and attornies on retainer for psychological distress!

Mojo is met by Seau in the backfield and treats him like an old uncle, then gets 2 more. From the 7, Harrison drops an INT in a bad mistake by Garrard, and it's third and goal. Jones can't haul in a jump ball, and the Jags choose Scobee, like they've got a defense. He hits from 25, and it's Patriots 28, Jaguars 20. We're just two points from the over!

Jags are lucky to avoid a late hit on the kickoff return, and the Patriots start from their 20. With 9:39 left, the Jags finally spring a run blitz, and Maroney gets a yard. Oh, that canny Jack del Rio -- he's saved up his blitzes for just the last ten minutes! On 2nd and 9, Stallworth reminds us all that he's in the game too, with a tip drill catch off his face down the sideline that goes for 49. Huge play, and the Patriots are on the 26 -- but honestly, why not get beaten by the big play, where at least the clock doesn't run as much?

Maroney gets two, then Stallworth again for 7. Brady is at 96% completion right now, which on the bright side, would at least get Simms out of the record books. On third and one, Welker drops a ball that would have gotten him a first... and Gostkowski comes out to try again from 35. He hits, and We Have The Over! Patriots 31, Jaguars 20. (And if that bastard Gostkowski had hit the earlier field goal, we'd also have the cover. Yes, I'm bitter.)

The Jags try trickery on the kickoff return and get nothing from it; they'll start from their own 15, not that bad field position has bothered them much all night. With 6:31 left in the game, MoJo goes for 12, and it's time for everyone's favorite game... watch the Patriots opponent fail to use the clock wisely! A broken play gets Garrard a yard and keeps the clock running. Garrard also looks a little woozy, but not enough to miss MoJo for 4 in the flat. Third and 5, clock still ticking away under five minutes... and Garrard is betrayed by Northcutt again, though Garrard probably should have ran for the first.

The game ends on this play if the Jags don't get it... and they call their second timeout on top of things. Northcutt saves the game and Samuel then gets another 15 yards, while Harrison cries. That gets them to the Patriots 45 with 4:34 left, and We Still Have A Ballgame, Kind Of.

Adalius Thomas finally gets his name said with a nice block on a first down pass, but the ball falls to the turf. Garrard avoids a sack and gets four like a young Donovan McNabb (yes, I went there); he just has a calm sense while running that's noteworthy. Third and six from the Patriots 41, need at least another first down to think about the field goal... and the ball pinballs around on tight coverage to Lewis. 4th and 6 and we're back to The Last Play, and then Rodney Harrison does what he always does, which is end the game with a pick.

The Pats have the ball with four minutes left, and the only suspense left is whether or not they will cover. Earlier in the year, this would be a lock, but in the second half of the year, the Pats have played it close to the vest, and they give it to Maroney twice for 2 yards. On third and 8 with 2:38 left, Brady calls time; one suspects they will keep it on the ground, but then again, Moss doesn't have a touchdown in this game, and the Patriots do enjoy their little Statements. They send three wide, and Stallworth embarrasses the DB with a stiff arm and runs through him. Moss didn't do much in this game, but Stallworth and Welker certainly did.

Brady ends the night at 26 for 28, and one of the two was an easy and bad drop. The Jags certainly gave him a lot of easy throws to make, but he made them all. This isn't news, but he's the best QB on the planet right now (assuming, of course, that Eli's Older Brother doesn't show him up in a week).

They give it to Maroney a few more times, and our great dream of a spectacularly cheap cover dies on a third and 3 play where he doesn't take it to the house. But the Patriots will have to finally punt the ball, which has to count as some sort of moral victory, right? And that's your ball game.

The Jags are a nice little team, and if Garrard can make the leap from deluxe game manager to actual game winner, they could be more than that. But there was nothing particularly impressive about their game plan tonight. No defensive wrinkles, no sign that they learned anything from the Eagle or Raven games. And from a team with a coach that seemed suspect, in a division with the Colts and a conference with the Pats... that just makes you a consistent second round loser. (And if Fred Taylor gets old, leading to too much wear and tear on Mojo, maybe not even that.)

As for the Patriots and their fans, one has to assume that they felt satisfied for minutes on end with this win, and that thos minutes started when Harrison made the pick, and ended when the clock showed zeroes. They'll either get the real Super Bowl when the Colts come to town, or the first of two coronation games when the Chargers swagger in. They certainly didn't show any weakness that we all didn't know about already, along with the grim possibility that Brady can actually turn it up a notch more.

Thanks for riding with this, and we'll be back tomorrow...

Patriots-Jaguars Quasi Live Blog: Third Quarter

I missed the first few minutes from putting my kid to bed, but I'm back as the Patriots move into Jaguars territory with a long run to Maroney. There's rarely, really, a doubt that this Patriots offense is going to score; it's more a question of how... and we have a Brady incompletion! Zoot alors! The crowd is sniffing as if the servants haven't washed. It's nearly met by its mate, but Faulk makes a fingertip catch, and it's another 8 yards. I think the Jaguars are trying to bore the Patriots into losing. On 3rd and 3, Gaffney is open on a crossing pattern as Brady continues to have absolutely no pressure.

Why not just drop all 11, if you're not going to rush the passer? On trickery that, frankly, was as necessary as tipping the butler, Brady throws to Welker for a go-ahead score. The crowd, sensing novelty, puts on their special white clapping gloves, and give the Patriots a rousing 15 seconds of bonhomie. New England 21, Jacksonville 14, I'm liking my chances on that 49.5 point over, and the fact that Welker got four catches on that drive and the touchdown is why the applause lasted for 15 seconds, instead of the customary 10.

From the 31, Taylor for 4, then 3. On 3rd and 3, again with a curious lack of pressure, it's Matt Jones on the slant for the first. Garrard is now 13 of 15. Jags go back to what they are: Taylor for 3. Jags are 14 for 53 on the ground so far, and then Garrard escapes mild pressure to find Jones on another open crossing route, this one for 29. A false start pushes them out of the red zone, and the Jags really have no reason for that penalty -- the Patriot Fans have barely told their servants to yell loud yet, but long distances are trouble. Fred for 4, and the Jags call time as they are showing an empty backfield. Good move, considering that the empty backfield was their formation on the Garrard fumble in the first. When you've got two solid running backs, I like keeping on in the backfield, especially when the defense is more or less terrified of the young and fast one.

On second and 11, the Pats decide that blitzes are good, and get an ugly incompletion. Third down is a big one... and Northcutt can't hold on, and it could have easily been seven points. Scobee hits from 39, but you don't beat the Juggernaut when you leave points on the table. Ouch. 21-17, Patriots.

From their 24, Brady has to move a little to find Welker, but the 5 yard gain gets 15 more for a late hit on Brady. Seemed ticky-tack to me, but then again, hitting Saint Tom is always diecy. Maroney for 29 where he isn't touched until the last yard, and it's getting hard to see how the Jags defense is going to make enough plays to give the offense a chance in this game. Maroney to the right for 11, and the Patriot Fans are actually starting to warm to this running game thing -- it's piquant! Welker for zero on a screen, then another 7 to him. Not sure Randy Moss is in this game, really... not that they really need him. On 3rd and 3, it's Watson for his second touchdown of the night, and CBS favors us with a close up of their mascot violently dry-humping. Patriots 28, Jaguars 17, and Brady is now 23 of 24 with 3 TDs. The Jags may want to try Plan B on defense now.

MoJo hasn't been a factor in special teams, and a hold will make it worse. Mojo for zero, and the crowd is getting enthused, as they sense the game will be over soon, and that the Patriots are likely to cover!

Patriots-Jaguars Quasi Live Blog: Second Quarter

Bad things happen for MoJo on the kickoff. 2 for Fred, then another easy first down throw for Lewis, who gets hurt and fumbles, but Mojo scoops it up. Huge potential loss, but Garrard just hits some guy named Smolko for 8, because he's a TE and the TE is always open against the Pats. Jags just seem to want to throw a lot, and Mojo finally gets a nice burst for 10 up the middle. Mojo for 18 on a screen, and the Patriots LBs are not liking this game at all. From the Patriots 48, Fred goes for 15 and almost went for 48; another very bad play for the LBs. Taylor for another 5 plus a face mask, and the Jags are threatening to tie this one up. MoJo off a tipped ball gets 5. Taylor right down the gut, gloriously, for 7. Taylor for a hard yard to the one, but on second down, a false start pushes them back to the 6. Garrard then throws an absolutely gorgeous ball to Ernest Wilford, and it's 14-all. Wow. Who knew Garrard could play this well? That's just your basic 95 yard drive on the road, down a touchdown, with the world going against you. Never even got to a third down. Wow. If the Jags defense can show up on this drive, this could get, um, interesting.

QBs are 18 of 19 for 225 yards at this point, with 3 TDs. Yeesh. Brady starts from the 19, and hits Maroney for 7 on a screen with yet another missed tackle. Faulk for 4 and the first. Maroney finally gets met and tackled in the backfield for a one yard loss, which is followed by an easy 9 yard outlet to Welker. On 3rd and 2 from a place in the field that even Belilchick might punt from, a 4 yard out to Gaffney for the first. New England fans react with a waving of their programs, and a call for more white Zin.

Brady to Brady for a dozen, and the Zin is now being sniffed with approval. Maroney for 6 is applauded by the beer drinkers up high, but it's not a touchdown, so the sigh is palpable. Maroney gets another six, and the crowd is antsy -- there hasn't been a New England touchdown for, like, minutes. Patriots go for trickery, and Welker gets 12; the Jags miss the opportunity to beat Brady senseless while it's legal and he's blocking. At the two minute warning, we still have seen almost no evidence of defense in this game, and despite it being a tight game, that kind of thing does eventually rankle a body.

Faulk for 3 as the Patriots want to run clock before scoring. Brady dances and then sits as he sees a flag go down; it's a 15 yard chop block, an obvious and awful play that should make a defender livid. The yards could impact even the Juggernaut, as they curiously run a draw. Maroney gets 9, and it's 3rd and 14 from the 25. Big play here... and the Pats go underneath to Welker, who almost gets his helmet ripped off as he goes to the ground. 57 seconds left, and the Jags call time, anticipating a NE figgie try. Conservative for Brady and Belichick to not try the end zone on the last two plays, but they are the Jugernaut and We're Not... and it seems ever worse when Gostkowski misses from 35. Wow. He didn't miss by much, but he missed. That's another break the Juggernaut did not get, and the Patriot Fans are so mad, they might just send the Zinfandel back. With prejudice.

From the 25, Lewis fights for 8 but does not get the call of getting out of bounds. A bad overthrow to Northcutt hurts, and we've got 26 seconds left and a third and 3. Might want to think about running it here... and they do with MoJo, who doesn't get it. The Pats call time with 19 seconds left; they've got two left. We will have a punt tonight! Welker gets it back to the 31 with 9 seconds left, and it'll be curious here to see if the Pats go with the Chuck It High To Randy Ploy, or just sit on it. They sit, and we're tied at the half.

Highly interesting.

Patriots-Jaguars Quasi Live Blog, First Quarter

Let me start this off by saying that I think the Jags have come off as total pussies (what? it's a cat reference) by playing games with the whole asterisk thing on their Web site. Honestly, if you are going to come in and be the trash talking heel thing, don't back down. If they somehow manage to win this game *and* talk trash before it, that would be the most memorable game in their history. Even if they went on to win the Super Bowl.

MoJo on the opening kickoff had no option but to sit on the ball. A bad sign for the visitors!

Taylor for 5; 15 more of those would be fun to watch. Marcedes Lewis pulls in an easy throw for big yards, A 3-yard loss by Fred is a problem, as this offense can't be in too many obvious throwing downs. Garrad finds Northcutt in the flat for 8 on a throw that took forever, and could have been jumped -- something to keep an eye on for later. Simms, having no clue, is talking about how the Jags have changed field position. Not sure he's actually watched any Patriots games this year, really.

Mojo is short on third and three, and from the Patriots 43, del Rio rolls the dice and goes for it. On a rollout where he could have kept it for the first, Garrard decides instead to swing for the fences, and he finds Lewis again for 34 yards. That's a game-changer right there, assuming this one stays close late.

Fred for a yard, and the crowd is quiet, but it's New England -- the crowd is always quiet, because they're spoiled beyond human imagination. CBS flashes a graphic of how the Pats have not allowed opening drive points in any prior Belichick playoff game, and Garrard throws it away on second down. On the third down, Garrard shows major cojones by hitting Matt Jones while falling for the touchdown. A replay shows he might have been down, and I'm expecting a review and Huge Patriot Break... but it doesn't happen. 7-0 Jags.

The first play of the Patriots drive is a sack, and all Jacksonville needs to do is convince the NFL to stop the game now and declare them victors. Brady recovers to drive the Pats down the field, with the biggest play being a 4th and 4 ball to Moss that gets them 15. It's Maroney, Gaffney, then Watson to complete things, and the big problem for Jacksonville is that Brady looks absolutely bored while doing it. He's 5 for 5 on the drive, with Watson getting the touchdown.

I realize that CBS is probably thrilled that this game looks tight and tough, but it's hard to imagine the Jags' offense staying at this level. The Patriots? Not so much.

Taylor can't make a man miss, and it's 2nd and 10. Pats show blitz, and Garard hits Northcutt easily for 19. In an empty backfield, Garrard gets bumped and drops the ball, and just that quickly, the Pats are smelling blood at the Jag 30.

Pass, run, pass to Faulk, and the Pats are content to nibble like piranhas. From the 11 on second and 1, Maroney gets hammered, forcing a third down. If the Jags really want to win this game, making a big play here would be highly advisable. It doesn't happen, as Maroney drives it all the way to the 1, and if he's going to do that, the Pats aren't ever going to lose. From the 1, the Jags stop Maroney again, and that's the quarter. 7-7 tie.

NFL Picks, Playoff Week 2: Suck My Chalk

This is the week of the year when the favorites, historically, have an incredible advantage. On average, three out of four of them will win and advance. So whenever any of the wild-card teams break through, it's memorable, and the memorable bets are the ones that keep you coming back. It's also the far more sexy and contrary pick. When you go for the road dog in this round, you get to talk about momentum, about how some teams have such weak coaching that the extra week of preparation won't help them, and how your pick has the testicular fortitude to overcome everything. You get to play into the underdog role and amp it up.

But picking games isn't "300"; you don't get style points for losing. The road team in these games usually faces an over-the-top crowd and defensive intensity in the first quarter, and heavy legs in the fourth. It's usually too much to bear, and after last weekend where I watched the Jags fritter away an easy cover and the Bucs do everything possible for Eli Manning to be relaxed and comfortable... well, I'm not looking for more than I can bear, no way.

This weekend also separates the fans that should really be satisfied with their team's year from those that can be justified in thinking the year was lacking. If you make it to next week, you are better than 7 out of every 8 teams in the NFL, and if you could say that about every other aspect of your life and live in America, you'd be making over $150K a year, with kids that get to go to very good schools, and a host of other things to be incredibly thankful for. (On a global scale, living in the US probably qualifies as being in that 1 in 8 mindset, but that's too much Pollyanna for this hour and blog.)

In short, enough of the I Can Only Be Happy If My Team Wins Everything mindset. It only leads to bankruptcy, on every level.

And with that financial condition looming, on to the picks!

* * * * *

Chargers at COLTS - Colts are an 8.5 point favorite with a 45 point over/under

On top of the usual rested home team versus tested road team, and the former was probably better anyway because they are the higher seed, is the following five factors:

1) Strength of schedule. The Colts got the #2 seed despite six games against the Jags, Titans and Texans -- three teams that were over .500, two of which made the playoffs. The Chargers had six games against the Raiders, Broncos and Chiefs. Enough said.

2) Strength of coach. Tony Dungy may not have the greatest playoff record in the world, but in general, he's gotten his team as far as they were supposed to go, and usually lost to a better coach. Norv Turner is, well, Norv Turner. At least no one can say he's choking this week, since he's the underdog.

3) Strength of QB. The Colts start a clear Hall of Famer who is playing with house money at this point, in that no one is giving him grief over Not Winning The Big One. He's also got one of the fastest releases in the game, negating most strong pass rushes, and has a coach-like ability to adjust to the defense pre-snap. The Chargers start the closest thing left in this year's playoffs to Rex Grossman.

4) Health. The Colts are likely to get back Marvin Harrison this week, and even if they don't, they've lived without him long enough to manage. The Chargers are likely to be without Antonio Gates, which means they will need a second straight week of step-up performances from Chris Chambers and Vincente Jackson... and it will also mean Bob Sanders gets to spend all his time staring down LaDanian Tomlinson. Against a Colts secondary that isn't injured or lacking, they won't get it.

5) Defenses. The Chargers have a flashy, big hitting defense that lives on turnovers and emotion -- and if they can get lucky enough with gambles and athleticism, they might just make enough plays to give their team the ball with a short field. The Colts just make all of the plays that win games consistently, from not giving up big third down conversions to stopping the run without trickery or unnecessary risk.

If you're looking for a reason to take the Chargers, you're looking at turnovers and special teams -- which is to say, freak and fluke plays. In general, I'm not a huge fan of teams that rely on winning the turnover battle to win games; in the games where the turnovers balance out to more or less even, and those are the majority of games in the NFL, it's won at the line. The Chargers didn't win the line against the Titans, at home, for a very long time, last week. Expecting them to do better in Indy isn't looking likely to me.

Indianapolis 31, Chargers 20 -- which means Colts and OVER.

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Jaguars at PATRIOTS - Pats are a 13-point favorite with a 49.5 point over

Unlike many prognosticators, I don't think the Jags need to play a perfect game to defeat the Juggernaut. The Colts, Eagles, Ravens and Giants didn't come close to playing perfect games in the Patriot close calls, and all were a handful of plays away from blemishing the perfection. (No team, really, plays a perfect game; there are always negative plays and individual battles lost, but if all of the game-changing plays go one way and the other team quits, it looks like perfection. Anyway.)

The real problem for the Jags is that, contrary to popular belief, they really aren't the kind of team that can beat New England. To wit:

1) Teams that give New England trouble on defense have exceptionally physical corners that take Moss out of the game without double-teaming him. Double-teaming Moss doesn't really work that well, since he sees it so often. But if you can clean his clock early, he loses his taste for things late. Witness the Eagles and Ravens games. The Jags don't really have that kind of secondary; their big hitters are closer to the line.

2) You have to exploit Seau and Harrison's age and slowness to keep drives alive against this team. (And to a lesser extent, Vrabel and Bruschi. Make no mistake about it, the Pats will draft LBs next year, and the Adalius Thomas signing was as big for the defense as Moss was for the offense.) The Jags don't get much from their TEs, and with the outstanding exception of MoJo, don't really have a great RB threat in the flat.

3) A month ago, the Pats didn't look like they could run the ball worth a damn, which dooms teams in the playoffs... but they've ran the ball just fine down the stretch, and you have to think that they are going to have plenty of opportunities to run, with the Jaguars having three plus receivers to worry about.

Having said all that, the Jags are physical and any team with a home-run hitter like MoJo has a puncher's chance... and there may be no weaker home field at this round in the playoffs than the very spoiled New England crowd. But it's hard to see how that translates to a win, and David Garrard playing from behind has the potential to get ugly.

New England 34, Jaguars 17 - which is Pats and OVER.

* * * * *

Seahawks at PACKERS - The Pack is an 8 point favorite with a 42-point over/under

The Packers have a lot of players without playoff experience, but the Seahawks can't pull this off without Matt Hasselbeck having a great game... and the Packer corners, at least the top two, are very good. Hasselbeck might make some hay with the slot and TEs, but it's hard to get to 300 yards and 3 touchdowns that way, and I think he needs to do that for Seattle to win. (And no, he's not going to get much from his RBs. The Seahawks would be better off if Shawn Alexander retired. Today.)

For the Packers, Ryan Grant is actually the most important player for the team, since he'll keep Favre from forcing things. Also, the Seahawks secondary is susceptible, and they won't get to Favre anywhere near as much as they did Todd Collins; even if they do, Favre gets the ball out fast, and the Packers won't have as many horrible drops as the Redskins did.

It's also noteworthy that while everyone seems to have gotten off the idea that the Seahawks hadn't beaten a .500 team since Week 1, just because they survived the Skins. One week does not make a trend, and this team has been so gutless, so long, on the road... and it's just not inside my brain to imagine that Favre will lose this one, really.

Packers 27, Seahawks 13 - which is Packers and UNDER.

* * * * *

Giants at COWBOYS - Cowboys are a 7.5 point favorite with a 46 point over/under

How on earth do you make sense of this Giants team? On the one hand, they've been really good for the past few weeks. On the other, they played against a Pats team that didn't blitz until they wanted to win, and a Bucs team that seemed to think that blitzing was worse then losing. For the positive, they are now 8-1 on the road this year. On the negative, the teams they beat on the road were mostly terrible. For the positive, their running backs look good now, especially Bradshaw. On the negative, their defense has given up 8 million points in two games against the Cowboys, and their safeties are very exploitable -- and you don't want bad safeties against Witten and potentially Owens.

If the Giants are hard to figure, the Cowboys are a broken Rubik's Cube. Romo's got a bad thumb and a ready-made horrible storyline from the Mexico trip. Owens is a three-ring circus of injury drama. They haven't ran the ball worth a damn in a month. They've got a pretty terrible game-day coach. Their starting safety is a 15-yard penalty waiting to happen.

And yet... Romo just makes plays. Whenever he fumbles, the ball bounces up to him a friendly dog. He's got a good home field. The Cowboys can pressure the QB a little, and will, especially with a week off. They've just owned the Giants this year, and I don't buy the idea that beating a team that you've stomped is hard three times, when you've done it twice.

Cowboys 31, Giants 21 - which is Cowboys and OVER.

Bet early and often!

The Pros and Cons of Each Team Winning The Super Bowl

New York

Pros: The victory parade would have the entertaining sidelight of watching Tiki Barber and Jeremy Shockey tarred, feathered, and dropped off at Penn Station with an off-peak Amtrak ticket to anywhere. If they win, the Coughlin and Eli Show would have to keep running for at least five more years, most of which probably won't go this well, and I really do enjoy watching Coughlin scream and whine, and Eli look sad.

Cons: More Manning Brother commercials, a Bettis-style wanking sendoff for gap-toothed asterisked sack record holder Michael Strahan, an unconscionable amount of "No one believed in us" posturing... yikes. Lets just move on.

Seattle

Pros: Their fans would finally let go of the conspiracy theories surrounding the Steelers win. There's a very real possibility of Mike Holmgren retiring to have more time with his family on the ice flow. Shawn Alexander gets to go out to stud, rather than a glue factory. Matt Hasselbeck deserves a little love for owning the "We want the ball and we're going to score" comment. Since the US enjoys ignoring Seattle, there will be no post-game coverage or dynasty hype. You think that Ravens Super Bowl win got forgotten fast? You ain't seen nothing at all!

Cons: For a host of sins against humanity and good taste, good things should not happen to Paul Allen for the rest of this lifetime, or the next dozen. Hasselbeck's wife makes Eva Longoria look demure and non-annoying. If they win, they'll have done so by suddenly discovering a spine on the road, after four months of suckering people into terrible bets. Bastards!

Green Bay

Pros: If this doesn't get Brett to retire, nothing will, and we can stop asking him when he's pulling the chute. Packer Fan's diet means that they don't have long before the next heart attack, so maybe this is their last chance. The team is mostly too young to have developed egos, personas, endorsements and irritation, and could help to end the annoying cliche of Teams Need To Have Playoff Experience Or They Will Eat Paste, Soil Themselves, And Lose.

Cons: The slobbering sound you constantly hear around Favre's jewels from media types will become absolutely deafening. Seriously, you may see sideline reporters just drop to their knees in the waning moments of the game. Like many obese drunks, Packer Fan is a lot more fun to be around when he loses. When he wins, he's sloppy and all over the place, and the women are showing you things you can't un-see.

Dallas

Pros: Julius Jones will sucker some team into a terrible free agent contract, under the little-known Dominic Rhodes Rule. The organization will be razed for personnel and coaching talent. Maybe TO's heart and brain grow three sizes, and he becomes an actual human being that day.

Cons: Where to begin? Even more commercials with Jones and Romo. A media whitewashing of the Owens Legacy that would make Mumia Abu-Jamal proud. Posthumous slobbering on Bill Parcells' knob. A great deal of out-and-out lying about Wade Philips' competence. The sudden and terrible resurrection of Cowboy Bandwagon Fan, the kudzu of NFL fans. And there will be more where that came from, but honestly, it will be Planet Owens for months.

Jacksonville

Pros: Since the Jaguars have no actual fans, as opposed to just disgruntled fantasy league gamblers and pre-literate rednecks on loan from college football, having them win is relatively painless. Fred Taylor gets known for more than his groin, or hating on Heinz Field.

Cons: It sets a bad precedent for the league when coaches with special needs win the championship. Also, would make far too many traditional Run the Ball honks far too happy, and make teams think that the road to success lies with cover-your-eyes game manager QB types.

San Diego

Pros: Gives back something to a team and community Touched By Tragedy, and shows that sports can transcend even the most awful wastes of life and property. (We are speaking, of course, about the hiring of Norv Turner.)

Cons: See Jacksonville comment. Also, a Super Bowl ring could make QB Phillip achieve new and spectacular heights of doucehbaggery. Think Rex Grossman... if he went to Duke.

Indianapolis

Pros: Like Jacksonville, you are unlikely to actually meet a Colts fan, so the psychic damage is minimal. May cause Patriots Fan's head to explode.

Cons: Back to back Colts championships may cause entire networks to switch to All-Manning Programming. Plus, this would further empower the all-encompassing ego, posturing and preening of prima donna WR Marvin Harrison.

New England

Pros: Would make Gregg Easterbrook shrivel and melt like the Wicked Witch of the West, only with slightly less testosterone. Combined with a Red Sox and Celtics championship, could speed up secession efforts by the rest of the United States. After its over, we can all enjoy the perp walk spectacle of the '73 Dolphins being rounded up into camps.

Cons: If you thought the '72 Dolphins were obnoxious, you haven't seen anything yet. You will be living with this team -- and more importantly, this fan -- for the rest of your life. Think about that; are you really ready to spend every football conversation until they put you in the ground waiting for Patriot Fan to talk about the Oh Seven Perfect Team? As the movie says, There Will Be Blood. Most likely, yours. (There are, of course, dozens of other Con reasons here, but brevity and a survival instinct intrudes.)

Jags-Steelers Quasi Live Blog, Fourth Quarter

Jags take the kickoff and do what they do best... um, actually, no -- instead they drop back and throw three times, missing twice and taking a sack on third down. You know, there's a reason why Jack del Rio is not considered a Genius. After a nearly blocked punt, there's 14:14 left in the game and a lot more suspense than would have been expected. The Steelers will start at their 31, and despite the fact that they've run 19 times for 30 yards and their QB has thrown 3 picks, they're alive. The Jags, they keep you around.

Ben, who probably throws more pump fakes than anyone not named Favre, hits Ward for a quick first down, then a screen for 7 where Ward powers through three guys. If you need your WR to make you pump your fist, Ward's your guy. A near pick on second is followed up with a check down to Ward for the first. He now has 9 catches for 142. Yeesh.

Ben finds Miller in the flat, and the big TE makes a CB miss and gets another first. Not the best game for the Jags defense when it comes to tackling. After another first down toss to Wilson, the Jags make another post-play mistake, and the flag moves it inside the red zone... where Davennightsoil drops a very open play, but is redeemed on the next play, where Ben hits Miller for the touchdown. Ward makes an amazing play for the two-point conversion, but it comes back for a holding call. Brutal. Nearly as brutal as going for 2 from the 12 with 10:25 left; it fails, and it's 28-23. That Missed Extra Point May Come Back To Haunt Them!

After the now de rigeur Wuss Move of not kicking it to Returner, the Jags get a holding call... and then Garrard throws the backbreaking, Room Service, defender called for a freaking fair catch pick. After the return, the Steelers are in the red zone.

You remember where I wrote how no one who bet on this game would feel good about it? I warned you. And Me.

The home crowd is going gonzo before a third and one from the 7... and Ben gets it from the secondary shove from Davenkotite. After a quickie to Ward on a bootleg and another bootleg, a third down pass is tipped... and the Steelers go for it on fourth from the 2. Ward gets the flag on a call that could have gone either way.

On first down from the 1, Davencaca gets in, and the two-point fails. 29-28, and the missed points after are now huge, in that a field goal wins the game for the Jags, instead of tying it. 29-28, Steelers... who have scored 19 unanswered in the blink of a relative eye.

So, with 6:16 left, can Garrard lead a road comeback? He has 2 picks tonight on 14 attempts. He's looking Leftwichian right now, and the home crowd is causing false start penalties. Garrard tries a check down to the back, which does not work, as predicted. On 2nd and 13, it's a brutal drop for a wide-open Greg Jones off a scramble; that's the kind of play that just ends seasons. On 3rd and 13, with the crowd going Ka Ra Zee, Garrard gets time and hits Northcutt for a big first down. Jones is off the hook.

Now with a first down, the Jags can run, and Taylor does for three. On second, Garrard holds the ball for 10 seconds before throwing it away. With 4:11 left, Garrard takes a bad sack, and it will be up to the Jags defense to give them any last chance. After the punt, it's 3:43 left and the Steelers start at their 20.

Davengrowler for 5 on first -- a big play. Second down, Davenhoying gets stuffed, and the Jags take a time out. 3rd and 6 from the 26... and Ben rolls out and drops a load. With 2:50 left, it's punt time, and I'm waiting for the SNF team to tell me how the Steelers decision to go for two could cost them the season. Well? Well?

After a good return from Northcutt, its the Jags ball at their 49. Wilford misses a catch by inches that would have been huge... and the Jags are challenging, which will cost them their final time out. An 8-yard out to Williams gets them a 3rd and 2, and Garrard lets the clock run down to the two minute warning, inexplicably. 3rd and 2 from the Steelers 43. Despite the awful coaching decisions, this is a heck of a game.

Lewis drops an underthrown ball on 3rd, with Polamlu blitzing like a mad man. On fourth down... Garrard scrambles for 32 unforgettable yards to the Steeler 11. Pittsburgh timeout. Wow, wow, wow.

On first down, Jones-Drew gets crushed, another timeout. I was wondering, given the possibility of a 30 yard field goal, that the Steelers should let them score a touchdown, so you'd at least get the ball back with 1:15 left and two timeouts. No such move. On second, MoJo gets 5, and it's 3rd and 7 from the 8. MoJo to the 2, and it's an extra point try now. The Jags take a delay of game to milk every second, and it's Scobee from 25 yards for the game -- and he makes it. 31-29, and now, FINALLY, the announcers point out that going for the 2-point play from the 12 might not have been smart.

WAY TO GET IN THE GAME, YOU FREAKING FOSSILS!

Davenbraman returns it to the 28. Ben has 29 seconds and 40 yards... and he won't get any of them. Sack, fumble, ball game...

and since this was a 2.5 point spread, a cover for the home team, and a double loss for me. You have to love gambling!

(Oh, and there is no way that the Jags are winning next week; their QB was 9 for 21, for heaven's sake, and their coach eats paste. But thanks for playing!)

Steelers-Jaguars Quasi-Live Blog, Third Quarter

1) During NBC's Halftime Orchestra of Punditry, Tiki Barber, acting out of instinct, throws the QB (Ben) under the bus. Now yes, he certainly didn't play that well... but someone might want to note that Daventurd has 9 carries for 13 yards, and that's with his first three carries going for 21. Mr. Ben is not exactly drowning in help.

2) I put the youngest down for bed, and miss the Garrard pick. The Jag defense stiffens amidst unnecessary Steelers offense trickery -- note the continuing theme of Tomlin not trusting his players to be better without misdirection, a common problem with this team, and a big reason why I picked against them this week. Jags are up 21-10, and that under pick is on severe life support.

3) Jags take the kickoff and drive it down the gut, aided by a bad face mask penalty on what would have been a sack. Mo-Jo scores from distance to make it 28-10, and it's a really bad sign for the home team that his jersey is still looking mighty clean. There are 19 minutes left in the game and the Steelers season.

4) Davencrap fumbles the resulting kickoff, but it goes out of bounds. Get ready for a lot of Ben pulling stuff out of his butt, and yes, the fecal jokes are coming just and furious here. Will I have to go to Thesaurus.com to find more words for Najeh? That's about all of the suspense left right about now.

5) I'm going into Larry King mode now, so let me apologize in advance for the utter lack of quality or insight... A shot now of Grady Jackson, who has to still be burning from that Falcons rejection. He'll never be able to get over the shame of being on a Final Four team... The Steelers are driving just to ruin my under pick. Bastards. But Hines Ward is my idea of a WR. Love that guy... Is there a worse penalty in football than the false start by the offense at home?... Ben takes a bad sack by trying to do too much, setting up a 4th and 12 to start the fourth quarter... and Holmes breaks a tackle on a blitz, ruins the under and makes this a game again. Sheesh. 28-17, and right now, Gregg Easterbrook is writing things in his notebook of Smug Crap that absolutely no one will be surprised by. Seriously, can't he just set up a macro for this now? Back in a bit...

Jags-Steelers Quasi Live Blog, First Half

1) Opening drive for the Steelers features a lot of misdirection, Hines Ward, and the Jags' defense over compensating with late hits and bad penalties. A near fumble at the goal line stays with the home team, and Actually Better Than The Starting RB Najeh Davenport groans it in from the one. (Najeh, honestly, could run for 2,000 yards next year and still be getting Poop Jokes. Now and forever, really.)

2) Mo-Jo, who I call that just to save a lot of typing and because if he's good he deserves a nickname and if he's bad he gets Flo-Jo allusions, takes the following kickoff to the Steeler 1 yard line, ending any hope from the home crowd that this one's going to be easy for them. It's actually a great play to not get the touchdown there, as it gives your defense a little more rest and by the numbers, teams lose more often than they win when they run one back for a touchdown. But still, if you're a fan, you probably want the touchdown. Taylor gets it in from the one, and the huge number of people who've been burned by Fred Taylor getting vultured at the goal line in fantasy leagues all smile ruefully. Tie game.

3) The game then settles down for the rest of the first quarter, with the teams having some mild success moving the ball, but bogging down at midfield. This is a lot more of what we were expecting, but I'm still not liking my under bet right now.

4) On a 3rd and 10, Ward gathers in a deflection for a huge play and a first down. This is why you are insane for betting this game. This game will totally turn on a play like that... and then Rasheed Mathis flips it entirely with an INT return for a TD. Flag on the play adds insult to injury by letting the Jags kick from the 50. This is looking like the dream scenario for the Jags, in that they should be playing from ahead.

5) Pick Number Two of Big Ben comes with a video review where Al Michaels is ready to sell Rasheed Mathis's dreadlocks down the river for the loss of a 20-yard return. Then, the refs call him down by phantom contact, and the dreads are off the hook. That sound you heard while this was happening was all of the young and black people watching the game telling Michaels to go die of old age, already.

6) On the subsequent possession, Garrard hits Mo-Jo, who shifts into Turbo Mode to go the distance. The Jags are up by two touchdowns, and threatening to turn this game into Garbage Time. My under pick is toast, but the Jags pick is looking a lot less worrisome than expected.

7) A lot of booing from the home team as the Steelers offense is looking very, um, finesse. Four sacks in the first 23 minutes will do that to you. The piece de resistance is a 3rd and 15 where Ben has to abort a screen. When you can't even run a screen on 3rd and 15... you are getting punched in the mouth. Repeatedly.

8) The Jags are running the ball straight up the middle with success, and their OL is getting in those fun just before the whistle extra hits. Along with Rich Kotite on your sideline and vultures circling the locker room, these are Not Good Signs, assuming you're a Steelers Fan.

9) I think John Madden is cultivating his next great crush... and it's MoJo. Brett Favre may leave us one day, and John has to have a fallback.

10) Pittsburgh is getting no push from its pass rush, but Josh Scobee misses from 46, and we still have a game. (I do have to thank the Jags and Steelers for showing the world how quickly a football game can be played, though. The first half of Seahawks-Redskins, I think I saw more Diet Pepsi ads than football.)

11) Madden makes a George The Animal Steele reference, showing he reads BDD over at Deadspin. Davenpoop then busts a screen to get the Steelers into field goal range. We're a play away from a game where the Jags have dominated physically being up by all of one play -- just like a month ago.

12) That play, however, really wasn't Ben's third pick of the night on an ugly middle screen where the Jags DT, looking more than a little like George The Animal Steele, stops the drive. The Jags run out the clock and go into the half up 21-7 to a chorus of Zinzer boos. (It's OK, though -- the game isn't in Philadelphia, so no one has to pule over how booing hurts the home team's efforts, and people really just should not do it.) Back in a bit.

Fred Taylor Is Right. Now, Let's Abuse Him

Big ups to Jacksonville Jaguars' RB Fred Taylor, who said this today in preparation for this weekend's wildcard game against the Steelers in Pittsburgh...

"That field is terrible. That's a lawsuit pending. That's ridiculous."

The reason why I'm giving Fred love for this is twofold:

1) It's true, blindingly obvious, a casual refutation of the knee-jerk belief that grass is always better than Astroturf, and a nice point up the ass of anyone who wants to genuflect at any new stadium. Hey, Pittsburgh? You forgot about the freaking field when you built your pleasure palace. WTF? (Yes, I know, I know, rain and a ton of high school and football games there. What the hell, you only have one field in the area? West Virginia is laughing at you right now, and the spittle through the gaping maws where they should have teeth is just wrong. All over.)

2) My gut is telling me to take the Jags in this game, and I'm really hoping that the Taylor Hullabaloo somehow drives the point spread in the Steelers' favor. Come on, media! Stir up the belief that the Steelers will use this as locker room fuel, in the bizarre notion that such things are necessary in a playoff game!

Small ups, as well, to Steeler head coach Mike Tomlin, who added to my point spread hopes with this:

"Sure it is [an advantage], if he feels that way. I don't know anybody on our team that hates our field."

Um, Coach? No home team's players will admit to hating their own field. Even the Eagles professed affection for the old Vet Stadium turf, and that turf was so mean, it once killed a man just for snoring.