When Tom Glavine staggered over the 300 game mark just over a year ago, there was much hullabaloo over how he was The Last, to which I cried bull over at the Carnival. Seeing Mike Mussina throw his best game of the year (8 shutout innings against the Twins to bring his record to 13-6) made me want to see how things had progressed since then.
The closest is Randy Johnson, who, after a truly impressive pitcher's duel win over Rich Harden and the Cubs last weekend, stands only nine wins away from the mark at 291. As he's 7-7 with a 4.89 ERA this year, and probably only has 13 starts to get those nine wins, it probably won't happen this year, but it's not impossible. If he's close in the last starts of the year, that will dominate the MLB pre-playoff coverage.
I also can't imagine that he doesn't come back in 2009 to get the mark, even if he doesn't hang around for very much longer after that, assuming his back doesn't blow up on him. With the Unit, it's been much more about his health than his effectiveness; even in his dotage, he's someone that would be starting for just about every team in baseball, since he's left-handed with plus stuff.
Meanwhile in the Bronx, the 39-year-old Mike Mussina continued his under-the-radar assault on Mount 300, in a bounceback year that no one saw coming, really. With 263 wins for the career, and a 3.26 ERA, he's even an undeserving Cy Young candidate. However, even though he's made exceptional progress this year, and has probably bought himself more time in good run-supported pinstripes to get to the finish line, I still think he'll need to go to the National League and trick his way over the threshold. As he's pitched for his entire career in the AL, this really shouldn't be a problem.
So we've got two better than even money candidates to eclipse Glavine as the Last 300. How about the rest of the list?
David Wells was just about done when I visited this topic a year ago, and he's extraordinarily done now. One does wonder if Boomer would have gotten here had he taken better care of himself during his career; even though his injury history is surprisingly stout, carrying all that extra weight and running through so many teams couldn't have helped matters. I'm also certain that he couldn't care less, and that he's probably drunk when you are reading this. 239 wins is where he'll stay.
Jamie Moyer also has 239 wins, and continues to hold down a productive role with a 3.76 ERA for the Phillies (and if his teammates could have done anything with Oliver Perez today, he'd have 240). As with all guys who don't throw hard, several months of true ineffectiveness might make him unemployed, and he's at the stage where a new team might not happen. But there he is, and if you look at the numbers, he actually seems to be picking up velocity now.
It's also very apparent that he doesn't mind spending his middle aged years hanging around baseball players, and he's been healthy for a long time. If he somehow gets to 300 wins, which seems possible in five more years of taking the ball, he's going to make the people who hated to see Don Sutton get in positively apoplectic. As is, he's just six wins from getting into the top 50 all-time in wins.
And then we get into Big Name Flush Zone, consisting of Curt Schilling, Kenny Rogers, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz. Eight of Rogers' 218 wins have come this year, but his 4.48 ERA and 43-year-old age aren't helping, and he's toiling for a surprisingly mediocre Tigers team. I can't really see him getting to 250, let alone 300. Schilling is hovering on the periphery of baseball at this point, having not thrown a pitch in the bigs this year, and he's 41 and 84 wins away. Once again, I can't see him getting to 250, let alone 300.
Both Andy Pettite and Pedro Martinez are at 212 right now. Pedro might be the best pitcher on this list (it's either him or the Unit), but he's also the most injury prone, and has only 15 wins over the last 3 years as a big contract expense for the Mets. At 36, he's younger than most, and I'd love to see him get there to put the Small Pitchers Ain't Got No Reason To Live crowd in their place, but it's not looking good.
As for Pettite, he might be the best candidate among the non-Unit/Mussina group. He's 36, reasonably effective, doesn't have a terrible injury history, and pitches for the pinstripes. After a very hot start to the year, he's cooled down to an 11-7 record and a 3.86 ERA. I don't give him a huge chance -- maybe 10 to 15% -- and it won't happen unless he pitches into his mid 40s, but when you start getting close, you don't let it go. It's also going to be hard for the Yankees to let him go again, and for him to walk away from the money.
If John Smoltz pitches again in the majors, I'll be surprised, and I suspect Smoltz will be, too. It will also be in relief, which won't get him the 90 wins that he needs for 300, not unless he's planning on doing that for the next 50 years. If he had never been a reliever, maybe he'd have gotten closer, but if he had never been a reliever, I suspect he'd have been out of baseball a long time ago.
There's no real reason to talk about Bartolo Colon, Aaron Sele or Tim Wakefield. Which gets us to Tim Hudson, whose last win gave him 146, and puts him in the Pedro class of guys I'm rooting for. Roy Halladay is rolling, but 123 wins at age 31 is a long way to go. Roy Oswalt has had the first bad year in a long while, which makes his 119 wins look fairly paltry. CC Sabathia is still fat, but he's also still lights out. At 110 wins, it's way too soon to think about. And finally, we have Johan Santana at 101, and he's great and all, but we're still talking about 14 years at his current pace to get there, which would make him 43.
So, to sum up... Unit, Moose, and unless Jamie Moyer continues to surprise or Andy Pettite gets there, no one likely until the year 2020, if at all. At which point the cybernetic robot arms will be standard, which will change everything all over again, especially for Greg Maddux and his quest to pass Cy Young...
It's MLB picture day over at the Sports Hernia. The Brewers going all emo does not bode well for their chances, I think.
