Your Almost Assuredly Worthless AFC Predictions, Plus Playoffs

The second in a series that won't help you to win money or influence people. For the NFC version, click here; for a sense of gambling sanity, go find another site.

AFC East

New England 11-5
Miami 10-6
New York 8-8
Buffalo 2-14

Is this the best division in football, or merely the most overhyped? New England looks under the radar but eternally intimidating, the Dolphins are a slowly growing force in the classic Parcells tradition, and the Jets are HBO's darling. Only Buffalo looks terrible, and they usually win a few more games than expected due to the strong home field advantage and special teams play.

But when you look closer at the teams here, the warts stop popping up like mad. The Patriots are inexperienced on defense, and more or less the same team that got punched in the mouth repeatedly by Baltimore at home in the playoffs last year. As intimidating as the Belichicks are, they haven't really drafted well in the past few years, the running backs are still terrible, and it's no guarantee that QB Tom Brady is going to recreate the magic, or that WR Wes Welker is going to be his old Slot Machine self. But they are still the best bet in the division.

Miami is my favorite under the radar team in the conference. With WR Brandon Marshall in the fold, they finally have a true top-shelf wideout, and I think highly of QB Chad Henne and the line play. Defensively, they've gotten better with the signing of LB Carlos Densby, and the secondary seems like they can run with the big dogs. If RB Ronnie Brown is back from injury -- and it's not like he doesn't have experience at that -- they could be quite good, and less dependent on Wildcattery to move the sticks.

New York has the feel of a conference favorite, despite the fact that their late season run was aided and abetted in a big way by the Colts and Bengals laying down. This year, they've moved on reasonable talent like Thomas Jones and Alan Faneca, fought tooth and nail with irreplaceable CB Darrelle Revis before finally signing him, brought in more trouble than they are worth talent like LaDanian Tomlinson, Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes, then topped it all off with the kiss of death that is a "Hard Knocks" series. But all of that missses the biggest issue, which is that the offensive line can't stay healthy for yet another full season, and they'll miss Alan Faneca's toughness and run game road grading. Combine that with too many mouthy wideouts putting too much demand on the shoulders of QB Mark Sanchez... and the franchise's usual pattern of failing to deliver on expectations will arise again.

Buffalo? Good heavens, where to start. A defense that isn't set up for a 3-4 scheme, an offense that might have the worst line in the conference, no plus skill players beyond RB CJ Spiller, and even the special teams are going to go to hell now that longtime special teams coach Bobby April has left the scene. I don't even see the home-field advantage happening any more, seeing how bad the team has been for the past decade, and how little the fan base has to care about the Chan Gailey Era. Flush.

AFC North

Baltimore 12-4
Pittsburgh 10-6
Cincinnati 9-7
Cleveland 4-12

The Ravens are the chic pick in the AFC, with many people thinking that they are going to go all the way with QB Joe Flacco using more weapons than a Ravens club has had for, perhaps, ever. And there is a lot to like here, from RB Ray Rice to shiny new WR Anquan Boldin and a top-notch OL. Only Flacco is the question mark, and I have to think he's going to be fine, at least until he's a in pressure situation in the playoffs. But that's not what we're talking about here. The secondary has real concerns, especially with S Ed Reed missing the start of the year and potentially never being himself again. But it won't matter for a long while.

Pittsburgh is said to miss the year before it's even started, thanks to the suspension of Big Ben, the near-release trade of Holmes, and the overall quality of the division. But that misses the fact that the defense will be much better with the return of S Troy Polamalu, the rebuilt OL, and the fact that this team routinely wins with backup QBs. I think they'll compete, and could even thrive in the long run, seeing how life under Everybody Loves Ben involved much more passing than any Steeler team should do, really.

Cincy was the division winner last year, with convincing wins over the Ravens and a pounding ground game with reclamation project RB Cedric Benson. They've upgraded at WR and TE since then, and might be good on defense again with the return of DLer Antwan Odom, but the thing about teams that bring in Terrell Owens is that they never close the year strong, and this club has that Jets Lite feel of taking a step back in the standings just when their fans might be feeling good about themselves.

Cleveland somehow closed last year with a rush, just to ensure that Browns Fan had more of Eric Mangini to endure. While QB Jake Delhomme will be better than last year's travesty work from Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson, don't forget that he's still Jake Delhomme. The OL is good, the defense is willing, and the home crowd desperate for anything that takes them off the LeBron Hangover. They'll try hard and lose. A lot. And at some point, stop trying.

AFC South

Indianapolis 11-5
Houston 10-6
Tennessee 8-8
Jacksonville 5-11

Perhaps the most boring pick in football is this: The Colts Will Be Good. So long as QB Peyton Manning draws breath in uniform, the OL will look better than it should, the WRs will terrify, the defense will frequently be playing with a lead and the coaching staff will ride first class. I don't see any reason for that to change in 2010, Super Bowl Loser Curse be damned.

Houston is the longest and slowest breakout in NFL history, with QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson providing more empty calorie fantasy goodness than any other duo in the league. Too bad none of the RBs can stay healthy and/or avoid fumbling, and that the defense that was challenged to stop the passing game last year just lost their top coverage guy. Not exactly a recipe for success in Peyton Land, and I'm also not sold on coach Gary Kubiak keeping his gig for the long term. But there's just too much offensive talent here for them not to finally get a wild card this year.

Tennessee got RB Chris Johnson over 2,500 yards and the nearly unanimous first pick in fantasy draft status last year. This year, he'll produce a lot less as teams sell out to stop the run, nicks and bruises accumulate, and the Titans try to win games, rather than pad his totals. I still don't like this defense enough to see more than .500 work, and Vince Young isn't much more than a game manager type as he gets older; kind of a rich man's David Garrard. The actual David Garrard won't fare as well in the NFL backwater that is Jacksonville; this team needs to move, and to stop wasting the prime years of Maurice Jones-Drew's career.

AFC West

San Diego 10-6
Kansas City 7-9
Oakland 6-10
Denver 5-11

Is this the worst division in football, or is it the NFC West? Probably the NFC version, but there's a lot of meh here as well, with the Chargers just doing all that they can to acclerate the decay process, but no one stepping up enough to take advantage. Part of me was just desperate to pick some other team to win this, but as QB Philip Rivers remains the only above average QB in the division, and the Bolts are going to see a boost from an actual man with a pulse in the RB position, I can't get away from them. Besides, TE Antonio Gates is still the best in the business, and there are enough plus defensive players here to overcome. But they aren't winning a playoff game or anything else of note.

The bottom of this division is a strictly close your eyes affair. KC has some offensive talent, but a breathtakingly bad coaching situation. Oakland has guys with raw skills who never develop, because the training and development doesn't happen. They also have the best special teams in the division, because that's where they spend their money. (No, I can't make sense of it, either.) Denver has this marvelous pattern of running off its best offensive talent for pennies on the dollar. Luckily next year, that won't be so noticeable, since they have very little talent left, really. You can pick any order for them and I won't argue with you, just so long as you accept that they will be not very good. I'm giving the edge to KC, but it is a pure coin flip of stank.

And to close out this timewaste, here's how the playoffs will go:

In the wild card weekend, New England over Pittsburgh, and Houston over San Diego.

In the divisional round, Indy over New England, and Baltimore over Houston.

In the conference championship, Indy over Baltimore.

For the NFC...

Wild card: Washington over San Fran and New Orleans over Atlanta.

Divisional: Green Bay over Washington and New Orleans over Dallas.

Conference: Green Bay over New Orleans.

Super Bowl: Green Bay over Indy.

AFC MVP: Peyton Manning

NFC MVP: Aaron Rodgers

And now that I've said all of that... on with the real games. Please. As soon as possible...