Thursday, May 20, 2010

The contenders that never were

Craig Stammen is the worst starting pitcher in the Washington National rotation. His ERA of 5.86 is only slightly worse than his career ERA of 5.33, and while he hasn't given up as many home runs as he did last year (14 in 105.2 IP), it's not like he's gotten actually stingy (4 in 43). Opponents are batting .294 against him, with barely more than a strikeout every other inning. The Nats have won just three out of his eight starts, and he personally hasn't won a game since April 19, at home against Colorado.

The losses include:

1) 14-7 to the Phillies, where he didn't survive the second inning

2) 4-3 to the Dodgers, where he made it through 7, albeit against a team that was clearly struggling at the time

3) 7-1 to Florida, who haven't hit very much this year, in a 4-inning stint

4) 4-2 to Florida, probably his best start since just 1 of the runs were earned, and he pitched into the seventh

5) 6-2 to St. Louis when he went six and gave up 4 ERs.

The point isn't to bury Stammen; he's a 26-year-old guy who is providing what ordinary fifth starters for downtrodden franchises provide. He might be fine in the pen, and he might be OK someday. It's really not his fault that he isn't any better than he is right now.

However, the Nationals have a much better option available. Perhaps you've heard of him. His name is Stephen Strasburg.

In 40 innings of utter and complete timewaste in Harrisburg and Syracuse, the most hyped professional pitching prospect ever has given up 17 hits and 10 walks, while racking up 49 strikeouts. That's a 0.69 WHIP to go with his 0.89 ERA, and a 6-1 record for people who still care about winning games. You know, unlike Washington.

Let's say Strasburg is just ordinary, rather than extraordinary, and he gives the Nats two more wins from the five losses that Stammen has started. That would make the Nats 23-18, just 2.5 games back in the East, and tied for first in the wild-card standings.

Now, let's say he's extraordinary, the way that every baseball scout thinks he is. Let's say he wins four out of five of those losses. Hell, let's even give him Opening Day against the Phillies, when the Nats voluntarily de-pantsed themselves and gave the defending NL champions an extra home game, and Jon Lannan got his head kicked in. (Lannan, by the way, is the second-worst Natty starter. Perhaps he might be doing better if he wasn't miscast as a #1 starter?)

Well, then they are the first place team in the division, and the biggest story in the league. With the Phillies having injury problems with the starting rotation and shortstop Jimmy Rollins, maybe they even lead by a couple of games. They'd also be drawing more than the third-worst attendance numbers in the league. (The Nats currently draw just 19,471 a game, better than the Marlins and Pirates only. The Phillies lead with 45,084 per game.)

Instead, they are a fourth-place team that's going to tread water, because as soon as Strasburg comes up and gives them a boost, Livan Hernandez's blue snow streak is going to end. DC Fan will come to see Strasburg's starts and ignore the rest, since there's no reason to think that there's more than a .500 team going on here. When, well, there is... the offense has been fine, the bullpen has been very good, and Hernandez has been great.

Oh, and one last thing. The Nats are planning to shut down Strasburg early this year, for fear of giving him too many innings at an early age. (Seemingly, minor league innings where he proves nothing don't count as wasted.) Besides, they won't be in a pennant race, so what would be the point of risking him?

Or, since the Nationals have voluntarily opted out of a pennant race this year for the minor benefit of starting Strasburg's clock later, employing him in the first place? Especially since he's just spent the last two months diddling in the minor leagues, and learning just how little the organization cares about winning?

1 comment:

Steven Gomez said...

The big shame with Stammen is that he's got Gil Meche disease: He can string together a few good innings, but then he runs into trouble and just melts down. The baseball commentators call that "The Big Inning", e.g. "He needs to avoid The Big Inning". I call it sucking as a starting pitcher.