Week 4 NFL Picks: Gambling Nerdly

When you study math at higher levels, you (a) miss a lot of parties, and (b) became imbued with a weird energy. In my post-college slacker years, I knew some high level math people; they were even more bent then the rest of us, and some in that crowd drank blood for kicks. (On the plus side, if the girl will drink that, she'll do, um, lots more stuff. On the minus side, you're not the first to take advantage of the opportunity. 20 years later, and I'm still with the cringing.)

Anyhoo... our monkey minds really can't work out infinity or pi. The first is impossible to contemplate, and the latter leads you chanting numbers like a mental patient. And yet we use these concepts on a daily basis and make equations work with them. There is no such thing as a perfect circle, and yet we can imagine them quite easily. It's all quite curious, and makes for a strange cross-section of people who work in the field; bloodless priests with computers and imagination who would not, on the whole, be comfortable with faith, even as they show it.

Gambling, of course, is all about the math, even when it isn't. So be careful where you cast your Stone of Nerd, because we're all nerds about something. The fact that we are willing to throw hard-earned cash after our nerding does not make it less nerdly; it might even make it more so. (We're still better than most, though. So long as you aren't going in for die-cast figurines of your fantasy league players, which I'm kind of amazed that no one has brought to market yet. I mean, enough with the bobbleheads. But I digress.)

Last week we broke through nicely to erase the week one tragedy, and we're over .500 for the year. So I get to keep my thumbs, which is nice, because I use those guys a lot. Hopefully, we can keep up the momentum and buy back our legs.

And with that collection of unseemliness out of the way... on to the picks!

BALTIMORE at New England (-2)

Two weeks ago when New England played the BMore-esque New Jack Jets, they got punched in the mouth and lost. This week, they get a team with probable advantages at QB and RB, and a solid enough offensive line (especially behind solid and large rookie Michael Oher) to make a pass rush problematic. Joe Flacco has gaudy numbers on the year, and Tom Brady does not. In other words, night is day, day is night, and Bill Belichick's pact with Satan may be up. It's been a fun month to be a Patriot Hater.

Can the tottering Empire pull it together? Of course; this Ravens team is not as good on defense as their reputation (see how many yards Philip Rivers put up on them two weeks ago), and Flacco really hasn't faced an opposing coach that can mess with his mind yet. The Empire also gets Wes Welker back, and that might prove doubly useful, since rookie Julian Edelman could theoretically get Joey Galloway off the field and Tom Brady off the roof. Dreamboat is not taking his regression to the mean well here.

It also doesn't help that Patriots Fan is clearly the most spoiled fan in the NFL, and gives his team little if any boost. Part of this is a league-wide issue, where wealth has trumped passion in all of the seats that are close enough to make a difference. After the near perfection year, a workmanlike offense just doesn't do it for them. They just aren't going to be happy for a while, really.

But it's more than just an offense that's a little less than expected; it's also that the past few drafts have been meager at best, and the margin for error is a lot less than it used to be. Truth be told right now, this Patriots team is a paper tiger, with the added worry that Randy Moss is going back to taking plays off. Against a Ravens team that still has some defensive playmakers (paging Ed Reed), that's a whole lot of trouble. And in this game, unlike last week, Fred Taylor can't save them.

Ravens 31, Patriots 17

Tampa Bay at WASHINGTON (-7)

First things first; there is no truth to the rumor that this game will be blacked out regardless of the turnstile count as a matter of preventing a war crime. Now that we've gotten that out of the way, it's time for the worst going to be .500 team in NFL history to take advantage of the only other franchise in the league with a worse coaching situation (and man alive, this year it's a competition). Raheem Morris of the Bucs has gone back and forth so much on his QB, he's in danger of losing the entire team over it, and the once-fearsome Buc defense have become equal opportunity turnstiles. In Week One, Tony Romo threw for his career high in yards, most of them on embarrassingly easy fly routes. Last week, the Giants turned them into pewter gravel while limiting their offense to Pop Warner numbers.

Both of these teams are so loathed by their fan bases right now that you are better off being the road team. Despite that, I like the Skins here, because at least their offense moves the ball a little, and because in a battle of two coaches that won't be employed in this capacity for very long, go with the slightly more experienced one. I guess.

Redskins 24, Bucs 16

TENNESSEE at Jacksonville (+3)

The latest must win game for the Titans comes in Jacksonville, where the Jaguars are coming off a surprising gift win against the giving Texans. The road team could have taken the Jets out had they had any fourth quarter offense, but that was not to be, and now they get a Jaguars team that's starting to define the term home field disadvantage.

I'm looking for a little bounce-back from Kerry Collins in this game, and the Titan defense making anyone but Maurice Jones-Drew beat them. I'm also not expecting David Garrard to get that done, because his wideouts are pretty weak, and his offensive line fairly porous. Maybe all of those people staying away from the stadium in Jacksonville have a point.

Titans 27, Jaguars 16

OAKLAND at Houston (-9.5)

The Texans have done nothing this year to make you trust them with a big number, and yet here they are with a big number. That's the magic of the Raiders, who have done nothing to make you think they can compete, let alone cover, and especially JaMarcus Russell, who is only a bad attitude away from being this generation's Ryan Leaf. (Like the Highlander, there can be only one.)

Let's cut to the chase here, since without fantasy football, no one could care about this game. The Texans give away long touchdowns like free dinnerware; they just can't help themselves. If butterfingered Darren McFadden can't put up 100 yards and a touchdown here, he never will.

If the Raiders can force turnovers and not make their own, they can cover this number; the Texans play to the level of the opponent and put the ball on the ground. Andre Johnson will also disappear from the Asomugha. Houston will more than make due with Steve Slaton and Owen Daniels, but the nice thing about Russell is that he's so inaccurate, he's not even a pick magnet. The Raiders will cover.

Texans 27, Oakland 20

Detroit at CHICAGO (-10)

America's real team, the impossible to dislike Detroit Lions, got their first win in the iPod Age last week against the hilariously inept Redskins. Meanwhile, the Bears were striking a blow for sartorial sanity on the road in Seattle, where poor karma and the magic that is Seneca Wallace gave Jay Cutler the wiggle room he needed to move to a 2-1 start.

This week, the Bears will give their fans a monster chubby with a squash win. Matthew Stafford has his moments, but this Bears defense is too complex for a man in his fourth NFL start, and with Kevin Smith sidelined, he'll be asked to do way too much to keep things close. As low as people were on Cutler in Week One, that's how high they'll be after this game. It's pinball time.

Bears 41, Lions 23

CINCINNATI at Cleveland (+6.5)

The Battle for Ohio is looking very much like a Bengal Stomp, with the high-flying tabbies near the top of the division following their upset over the defending champions. Meanwhile in the town the NFL forgot, and should forget some more, some are calling new head coach Eric Mangini the very worst hire in NFL history. That may seem farfetched to you, but then again, you probably haven't seen the Browns play. Let's hope that God continues to favor you in that way.

I suspect this game will be closer than many anticipate, because the Bengals really aren't used to prosperity, and I have my doubts about Marvin Lewis keeping their heads on straight. You could easily see them spending all week in practice working on their touchdown celebrations, then failing to show up for the first 2.5 quarters of this game. The Browns also do have some run-stopping ability, which would take away the best part of the Bengals game right now (that'd be the astonishing career resurrection of Cedric Benson). But try as I might into talking myself into a Browns cover in this game, I can't, because this offense is just that awful, and the Bengals defense really isn't that bad. Actually (shh!), they're pretty good. Especially at getting after the passer.

Bengals 24, Browns 10

Seattle at INDIANAPOLIS (NL)

Look at the bright side, America: the Colts won't be on prime time, and the Seabags won't be wearing those hideous lime jerseys. We're all good in the hood! Indy had a highly impressive win in Arizona following a short week, while Seattle coughed up a late lead at home against the Bears.

To beat the Colts, the theory goes that you need to limit Peyton Manning's chances and wear out their speed defense with a solid running game. That's really not Seattle's game in any venue, least of all a road dome. Normally in this situation, the Bags fold early and often, with lots of hurt feelings and heavy pain for the quarterback and anyone foolish enough to bet them.

The Colts could kick out a letdown game; Dwight Freeney should miss this one, Seattle's really not a traditional rival, and after running the Miami/Arizona road gamut, you could see them sleeping a little on this NFC West team. But Indy doesn't strike me as the type to let complacency kick in, and Manning's good at keeping the hammer down (and his numbers up) in such situations.

This is one of those lines that will change dramatically depending on the injury reports, but the special joy of this column is that I get to go earlier than most, so I'm going to work under the impression that the bruised ribs of Matt Hasselbeck will take another week off. If he does start, this number is closer, simply because Hasselbeck is accurate enough to take advantage of TE John Carlson, who Wallace murders. But not by enough to cover the spread.

Colts 27, Seahawks 17

NY GIANTS at Kansas City (+10)

Can the Chiefs be any worse than they looked last week in Philadelphia? Probably not, and they do tend to pop up twice a year and give teams real trouble at home... but it's still very difficult to imagine them holding their own against the NFC East bullies. When your best defender is the unspeakably ancient Tedy Bruschi, and your best offensive plays all involve obvious holding calls, and your rookie coach is that special combination of arrogant and stupid... well, it's just not a terribly conducive atmosphere for a cover.

Having said that, the Chiefs will move the ball a little this week, since they'll get back Dwayne Bowe and Matt Cassel will have another week of shaking the rust off. Unfortunately for them and me, this Giants team is better right now than the Eagles, much more physical, and very prone to taking all of the air out of a bad team's home stadium.

Giants 24, Chiefs 13

NY Jets at NEW ORLEANS (-7)

September's Super Bowl in the Bayou, and a classic Defense Vs. Offense matchup that, well, isn't really that. Or at least, just that.

The Jets came very close to stumbling last week against the not quite desperate enough Titans; only some very weak performances by their wideouts (we don't expect them to be good, but it'd be nice if they caught passes that hit them in the hands occasionally) kept the media men in the win column. The Saints broke out their heretofore unknown ground game to grind the Bills into a fine powder while simultaneously causing Drew Brees's fantasy owners to all gnash their teeth silently, because you just can't complain about the guy after the start he's had.

Historically, my tendency is to overrate offensive teams in these kinds of matchups, because I just think they've got more margin for error. But this game isn't really like that. The Saints don't have a terrible defense anymore; they are opportunistic, get after the passer relatively well, and aren't hopeless in coverage. The Jets have a very good offensive line and running game, but they aren't going to be able to run it 45 times against 8 and 9 defenders in the box, and while I think their receivers (especially Jericho Cotchery and Dustin Keller) are underrated, that still doesn't mean they are world beaters.

On the other side of the ball, the Jets will potentially be missing Lito Sheppard, which means you're going to see a lot of yards for the WR who isn't being covered by Darelle Revis. I also don't think that Marques Colston is going to suffer the total shutdown that Revis has given to Mssrs. Moss and Johnson, because Colston really is more like a tight end than a #1 WR in many sets, and the Jets aren't going to let home run threat Devery Henderson run free. In other words, we're looking at one of those classic Too Many Weapons games. Especially if the Jets have to defend a short field.

And that, finally, is the crux of the biscuit. You'd have to be some kind of QB to win a road game in a loud dome against a pinball machine in your fourth career start. Sanchez has many fine qualities; he's fearless, OK with the decision making, can go deep and has strong accuracy. He's also not ready to win this game on his own, and he'll need to be.

Saints 34, Jets 20

BUFFALO at Miami (+2.5)

Hey, did you hear that Terrell Owens is going to avoid controversy this year? He's decided that since the media is just trying to goad him into saying negative stuff, he's not going to give them anything. Nope, that's the Old Terrible, the one that had to have attention, the one that would, say, become the whole story in a week after his consecutive games streak is ended, and the world became very aware that he's really not worth the trouble anymore. No, Terrible would never do that!

Look, it's real simple. Owens isn't very good anymore. His hands are very suspect, he doesn't get separation, his wheels are now ordinary, he's no longer a threat to break a tackle and take one deep. He takes plays off if he doesn't get the ball early and often, and there's a reason why he hasn't been an active player on the winning side in a playoff game since he was a pup.

He's also, of course, the last thing that this Buffalo team needs, where overmatched game manager dink and dunker Trent Edwards is being asked to be Jim Kelly II, when the best thing the team does is hand off to Fred Jackson. I'd usually like the Dolphins here, but I'm just not seeing Chad Henne being able to do that.

Bills 24, Dolphins 18

DALLAS at Denver (+3)

How many weeks do I have to pick against this Broncos team? Last week in Oakland, they continued to drain my bank account and sanity with a ball control win over a Raiders team that would be better off if someone poisoned JaMarcus Russel's feed bag. And yet the Raiders would have still been in the damn game if Darren McFreaking Fadden could, um, hold on to the damn ball. Maddening.

To damn the Broncos with the faintest of praise, they do seem to have a less sieve-like defense than expected. A healthy Champ Bailey and an angry Brian Dawkins will get you that, and Elvis Dumeril has risen from the dead to give them one more speed rusher than I was counting on. But against a Cowboys team that's good at rushing the ball before the weather grows cold, and with a QB-TE combo that will exploit Dawkins et al, that ends. Dammit.

Dallas is fighting off the short week, altitude, and Tony Romo's first episode of Early Season Suck. But there's a reason why the man has good numbers and the mistaken belief that he's a star, and that's because he pads his numbers against crud teams. Despite the 3-0 start, that's Denver. Finally.

Cowboys 27, Broncos 13

St. Louis at SAN FRANCISCO (-10)

The Niners were just one play - one very long odds play - from a 3-0 start and their division by the throat. Now, they are just a game ahead of the old guard Cards and Hawks on the sub .500 suck line, and hopefully, nice and pissed off about it.

But they are young, and might be looking past the Rams. You could hardly blame them, really. St. Louis hasn't been a threat to anyone but the people who draft Stephen Jackson in their fantasy league for years now. If there is a division rivalry here, it's escaped the notice of the rest of the league.

St. Louis comes into this game with a QB with a pulse, since Marc Bulger has quite predictably hit the med tent. Kyle Boller might do OK here; the Niners did show secondary weakness last week. But the Ram WRs are not as good as the Minnesota Vikings. Or, possibly, the Northeast Vikings, who are my high school team.

Shaun Hill will have to do more this week, as Frank Gore is down and Glen Coffee is weak tea at best; there's nothing here, beyond having the role against a bad team at home, that makes me think he's worth of attention. Instead, count on a nice little Vengeance Game for Isaac Bruce, and the continued career rehabilitation of Vernon Davis, who is the tight end on the Cedric Benson All Salvage Fantasy Team.

Niners 27, Rams 16

SAN DIEGO at Pittsburgh (-6.5)

One of those classic Need Games between two teams that haven't looked as good as they should. The Chargers partied hearty as soon as Chad Pennington was hurt, racking up a win that didn't look anything like the final score. The Steelers lost in their home away from home to the Bengals, in a game with multiple fourth down conversions.

The defending champs have other worries. There are conflicting reports that youngsters Limas Sweed and Rashard Mendenhall are either coach killers or just performance impaired. The offensive line gets exposed by their uncompromising QB, and the defense can't be special with Troy Polamalu in civvies. But sorry, Steelers Fan... I still like your team this week.

Unless LaDanian Tomlinson's menses clears up to 100% power, the Chargers won't have a credible internal running game, or a RB that can pick up a blitzer. (That is the reason, fantasy honk, why Darren Sproles will never fulfill your Tiki Barberish dreams.) Pitt lost last week to a balanced Cincy attack with Cedric Benson doing real damage. If Philip Rivers has to throw it 40-plus times -- and he will -- the Steelers will have a half dozen strongly negative plays, despite potentially scary matchups against the emerging Vincent Jackson and the strangely underused Antonio Gates.

They'll also have a win. But not a cover.

(Oh, and if you are still on the fence about this pick, just chant the following mantra. Norv... Norv... Norv... He makes the bad feelings go away. Provided, of course, you are not a Charger Fan.)

Steelers 24, Chargers 20

GREEN BAY at Minnesota (-3.5)

Farvageddon I in the Twin Cities, with the sky-high Vikings coming off their double reverse theft game (yes, they got lucky with the last second touchdown, but the Niners can't expect to score on a field goal block very often, either) in a battle for the top spot in the NFC North. The Pack comes in with a wearout win over the terrible Rams, and have real issues on the offensive line, where they have been doing so little as to start bringing in new bodies off the street. The Vikings look to be the class of the division so far, with a growing stable of weapons (Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian, Visanthe Schiancoe and, oh yeah, Adrian Peterson) making everything look purple.

And yet, I have unease about this team beyond His Favreness. The running defense might not be as good as advertised; Frank Gore looked Ok against them before he got hurt. Brad Childress hasn't gotten any better at this whole coaching thing. They might be scary in special teams with Harvin, but they won't get a home run from that every week, and they are also prone to lapses.

Finally, there's this. Karma dictates that Favre suffer for the massive heel turn he's taking here. I'm thinking we're going to see a few very lucky plays go the way of the road team, along with some ref calls.

Packers 31, Vikings 21

Last week: 11-5

Year to date: 24-23-1