NFL Week 2 Picks: No Comeuppance

Last week in an effort to make with the funny, this column took a gentle poke at the J-Man, along with the Terrible Towel. And what happened? The Steelers failed to give me a winning cover, and the karmic load of going against the dominant American deity caused me to take the Lions *and* Bengals. I'm lucky to have gotten out of it with just a 5-11 mark, really.

In a similarly inauspicious debut, Jay Cutler soiled the mattress in a nationally televised SNF game against the Packers, throwing balls that should have been intercepted, then following up with actual interceptions. He hit defensive linemen on ill-advised shuttle passes, he got taken by cornerbacks on button routes, he was jumped on intermediate crossing routes by defenders in space, on plays that looked utterly incomprehensible to the cameras. He also wore his negative emotions on his sleeve in ways that frankly delighted the vast majority of non-Bear fans, because there may be nothing that people enjoy more than seeing a jerk get his (or her) comeuppance. (Pulls collar nervously.) I've had people ask me when Cutler is going to go to the Raiders and adopt the name Jeff George, just to completely replicate the downward spiral.

But when you look at the details, as always, it's not so cut and dried. The Lions would have covered had the Saints not, basically, run up the score to see if Drew Brees could start with six touchdowns; the Lions also had some small amounts of poor luck. The Bengals should have put the Broncos away repeatedly before finally taking the lead late, then getting struck by lightning with the tipped ball to Brandon Stokely. I'm not sure there were more than a handful of people outside of western New York and Northern California who really expected both underdogs in the MNF games to put up a fight. And Cutler was ill-served by his receivers (Earl Bennett, in particular, stopped running on a route for a pick), and a DL almost never makes the catch on that shuttle pass.

And if you really want to think an original thought about Cutler, ask yourself this: why are so many media mouth jobbers interested in dogpiling on the diabetic? Could it be, perhaps, that the old boys network of the NFL just finds it distasteful for the hired help to have any control over his destination prior to free agency, rather than just sucking it up... or in currying favor with the owners, rather than the far more transitory player?

(And just to make sure that this column gets the major search traffic, feel free to make similar thoughts about Kanye West. Moving on.)

Well, screw that. This space has always been about currying favor with no one; instead, we're going to speak what we think to be truth, and to hell with the traffic figures or career opportunities. It's one of the benefits / curses of being our own shop, and not taking all of this *too* seriously. After all, what looks like comeuppance to the audience might just be nothing more than Sports Entertainment. (Or, in the case of West, an effective publicity stunt that goes too far.)

And if Cutler blows the job again this week? All bets are off. Including these. On to the picks!

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CAROLINA at Atlanta (-6)

Perhaps the final opportunity for Jake Delhomme to pull himself out of a career-ending death spiral comes this week in Atlanta against the continually surprising Falcons, who didn't look as good as the final score in a win against the Dolphins.

Cat fanciers have to take solace in the fact that their defense never quit in the blowout against the Eagles (witness the late hit / aggro play that cracked Donovan McNabb's ribs, and the way they made Kevin Kolb look like Doug Pederson), and they still have a great running game with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Stewart, in particular, didn't look the worse for wear from spending all of training camp limited by injury. Regression to the mean says that Delhomme can't turn the ball over like that again, and maybe getting on the road will help.

As for the Falcons, they looked kinda blah despite a big shutout win against the Dolphins, as Michael Turner looked like a bust and Matt Ryan wasn't as good as his numbers.

This isn't one of those picks that you make with any real amount of confidence, but I think this Carolina team is too tough and talented to just flush the year in Week Two, even if it means giving Delhomme nothing but safe plays and no more than 15 to 20 passes. But that's why they call it gambling.

Panthers 16, Falcons 14

MINNESOTA at Detroit (+10)

Could the Vikings have any more of an easy entry to this year? Their second straight wildly winnable road game takes them to Detroit, who get to show that their defense can be beaten in an entirely different way after last week's aerial assault from Brees and Company. Had it not been for the Stokely Miracle, Adrian Peterson would have had the highlight of the day with his violent dismissal straight arm on a long touchdown run against the Browns. It's hard to imagine All-Day doing the same thing to Detroit, if only because it's hard to imagine they'll be that close to him in the first place.

With the Williams Wall still intact in the longest running drug investigation since the French Connection, too much will fall again on rookie QB Matt Stafford, who is suffering through the kind of encouraging growing pains that Lions Fan will take cheerfully after years in the wilderness. After this game is over, make your lowball offer for Lions RB Kevin Smith; things will be better for him soon. But not now. (Oh, and as part of our nationally mandated requirement for football analysis and search engine relevance, Favre Favre Favre Favre Favre. I need a shower.)

Vikings 24, Lions 13

Cincinnati at GREEN BAY(-9.5)

If you really want to know why the Bengals lost last week, look no further than Carson Palmer, who failed to get points in the red zone despite an intermittently effective running game, a defense that was pitching a happy shutout on a toothless opponent, and a home crowd that won't get anywhere near taking out the blackout numbers this year, absent a massive infusion of Road Fan. Preseason and fantasy football favorite Chris Henry, in particular, got nothing and didn't like it, and new wideout Laverneous Coles did nothing to take away the idea that TJ Houshmanzadeh was utterly necessary. It's also telling that after years with an elite QB talent, this dreadful organization has never gone out and acquired a tight end that was any kind of offensive threat. In today's league, where there are literally dozens of big men who can hurt a defense by catching the ball, that's fairly inexcusable, but Bengal Fan is pretty damn used to it by now.

Green Bay, of course, won the SNF game despite some offensive shakiness of its own, with QB Aaron Rodgers just a hair off with his WRs, and not quite enough commitment to the resurgent Ryan Grant running game. This week, Cedric Benson will provide no help, the Packers will poach a few picks, and the offense will turn over on eight cylinders. Oh, and the Bengals set a new record in quitting on the year, which is tough in the Marvin Lewis Era, really.

Packers 34, Bengals 17

Houston at TENNESSEE (-6.5)

There are losses, and then there are losses. Houston got its lunch money taken by a Jets team that more or less shutdown Andre Johnson (Darrelle Revis is the best CB that people aren't saying enough about - yet) and crushed the running game, while also converting long third downs like they were nothing at all. The Titans were giving the world champions everything they could handle in a road loss that they could have easily won with credible kicking, or better defense against the no huddle.

Last year, Steve Slaton earned his rookie chops with big numbers against a Titans team that was having a massive year with Albert Haynesworth. Haynesworth is gone, but Slaton really hasn't looked good all year, and even as a guy that owns him in a roto league, I'm not filled with confidence here. Maybe Matt Schaub is more effective this week, but it's hard to see him be good enough to get the win on the road here... or covering that number.

Titans 24, Texans 17

OAKLAND at Kansas City (-3)

An early elimination game for the bottom rung of the AFC West, with the Chiefs having the edge from being at home and getting the extra day of rest, which might not be such a big deal in the early days of the season. The Chiefs will still be without shiny new toy Matt Cassel, which leads to more Brodie Croyle. The Raiders come off a moral victory loss to the Chargers, with their effective running game compromised by the mechanical stylings of starting QB JaMarcus Russell, then the late game defensive failure. But they certainly seemed capable of that .500 year I was predicting, just because the defense doesn't look awful, and the running backs really are very good, and the offensive line is pretty physical. They'll have to be.

Raiders 16, Chiefs 13

NEW ENGLAND at NY Jets (+4)

Every year in baseball, some writer with a hole to fill in June goes down the primrose path of singing the praises of some surprising player for the All-Star Game who is off to a hot start. Take this to its logical extreme, and you wind up with a game of hot start wonders. Ignore it all, and you miss out on players who are actually emerging.

That's where the world is right now with the New York Jets, who really could not be any happier with how Week 1 went. Thomas Jones crushed his naysayers, Matt Sanchez converted a ton of long third downs, and the defense was balls nasty.

And in this corner... The presumably mighty Patriots, who needed Bills chokery to win their home opener against a double-digit dog. The passing game looked limited to check offs and drop downs, the linebackers went back to feeble after starter Jerrod Mayo went down, and Dreamboat Brady seemed tentative all game long. Patriot Fan isn't just sandbagging for this game; they have reasons to worry.

If the Jets win this game, we've got the real chance for a shakeup in the division. Lose, and the Pats will look like a sleepy steamroller that just needed a little more time to crank the engine this year.

If the game was just played on the lines, I'd take the Jets. But it's not, and I just can't see Brady and Belichick going down to Rex Ryan and Matt Sanchez right now. Maybe in two years, sure. But not now.

Patriots 27, Jets 20

NEW ORLEANS at Philadelphia (pick'em)

The home opener for my favorite laundry comes with Donovan McNabb more likely than not to be on the bench with cracked ribs, and the offense to be in the less than secure hands of Kevin Kolb. Jeff Garcia lurks on the sidelines, with Michael Vick upstairs. It's basically the football equivalent of a battle royale in wrestling, only no one knows who is the face, and who is the heel.

With all of the QB Drama going on, it's actually a nice distraction from the team's real problem this week, which is figuring out how to prevent Drew Brees from getting to double digits in touchdowns in Week 2. The Eagles could be one of the few teams that has a hope of matching up here, as the secondary is pretty deep and the defensive line can generate heat, but the Saints are just unholy right now.

Expect a surprising amount of Billy Miller and a little more ball control with Marques Colston, as opposed to the Robert Mecham / Devery Henderson home run deep balls. If the Eagles can generate turnovers, they've got a reasonable chance, especially if Andy Reid's surprising interest in running the ball last week is a new fad. If the home team plays a Giant kind of game (clock management, abuse of the opposing QB, winning special teams), they can win this game; the Saints do not travel well historically, and the defense isn't elite.

But if they fall behind, it's lights out... Especially if they start having to play QB Roulette. (And if they do win with ball control, don't expect Don McRib to be back for the Chiefs next week, either.)

Saints 27, Eagles 23

St. Louis at WASHINGTON (+1)

Two teams that looked terrible last week in road division losses, and a matchup that will actively depress anyone who watches it. I'm a little surprised that the home team from the tough division with the actually tolerable defense is just a one-point favorite here, especially as Marc Bulger is just awful, and Jason Campbell is.. well, less so. I think. Watching this game should count as community service, and if you can write more than a paragraph about it, you're a better man than me. Or a bigger masochist.

Redskins 20, Rams 6

Arizona at JACKSONVILLE(-3)

Two teams that feel like they should be better, but really aren't. Arizona was gagging up a winnable home opener against the Niners, while the Jags stumbled around to get the cover in Indianapolis, all while never really seeming like they had a shot at the win. In this game, I think the Jags play more physically, and probably win by doing so, assuming that the Cards don't get back a fully functioning Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston. At home, with Maurice Jones Drew racking up yards, I'm not going against them, even though the Jacksonville home crowd this year is going to be blackout-riffic.

Jaguars 24, Cardinals 17

SEATTLE at San Francisco (+1)

The winner gets the lead in the division and too much attention as the New Boss in the NFC West, and if the Hawks can shake off their recent history as an awful road team, maybe they look fairly scary to boot. They've certainly got some playmakers on both sides of the ball, and as long as Matt Hasselbeck's back lets him play, they are even fairly explosive.

For the Niners, I keep disrespecting this team to the peril of my bank account, but I just can't take a team with such ordinary weapons seriously. Yes, Mike Singletary gets them to play hard, and they've managed to set up a few innovative defensive schemes, but maybe that's more about the good fortune of facing teams with bad injuries and/or limited talent. The Hawks are neither, at least right now, and I think they flex their muscles in this game.

Seahawks 31, Niners 17

Tampa Bay at BUFFALO(-5)

After the first 55 minutes of the first MNF game, you'd have been hard-pressed to find a Bills fan that wasn't going to consider this game as money in the bank. Oh, what a difference five minutes makes. Now, the Bills will be looking over their shoulders in close games, wondering who is going to make the howling mistake that cause them to fail.

Fortunately for Buffalo, that also describes the Bucs well, albeit with a little less offense to give them hope.

And while the Bills feature an offense with a QB that gets rid of the ball quickly, one solid RB instead of three questionable ones, and WRs that require some actual game planning, the Bucs trot out Byron Leftwich, a committee, and a less than full speed Antonio Bryant. If the Bills were able to bottle up Dreamboat Brady for most of a game, Lord Byron really doesn't hold so much terror.

And when all else fails, take the home team, especially when they are actually playing at home, rather than Canada.

Bills 20, Bucs 13

Pittsburgh at CHICAGO(+3)

Almost a must-win for the Bears, who've spent most of the last week listening to monstrously stupid comparisons of Kyle Orton's first win vs. Jay Cutler's first loss. Orton received a gift from the gods on the road against a cursed franchise that almost never wins. Cutler lost a game that, despite a ton of mistakes, he was leading in the fourth quarter before his defense gave up a home run ball, and he had gotten his team the lead with a couple of throws (the deep ball to Johnny Knox especially) that only a handful of QBs can make.

Now, it's possible that Cutler is a first class karma-crusher and team cancer. I'm not blind to the man's questionable body language. But really, the players like that in NFL history are people you can count on one hand; the much better indication is the douchebag that winds up straightening out and making his new team's fans happy, even while the rest of the league hates him. See either Manning, Phil Rivers, Favre during the early years, and Steve Young once he got out of Tampa Bay. There's a reason why teams put up with QB Divas, and that reason is that they frequently pan out in the long run.

Lost in the Cutler hand-wringing is the fact that Chicago lost Brian Urlacher for the year, while the Steelers will be without the services of Troy Polamalu for a while. I suspect the loss of Urlacher is overblown, because the man has been overrated for a while and rarely 100%, and my Eagles just looked fine against the Panthers without their starting MLB, who has been there a hell of a lot less time than Urlacher... but you never know, and Pittsburgh has to be feeling self-conscious about their lack of a running game against the Titans.

I'm seeing the Steelers missing Troy more, frankly, and Cutler having a bounce-back game by using Greg Olsen more, which makes for safer throws. Chicago is also the kind of defense that could knock Big Ben to the sidelines, and that's not a recipe for success in Soldier Field.

Bears 24, Steelers 20

Baltimore at SAN DIEGO(-3)

Every analyst in the business seems to be talking about how LaDanian Tomlinson's fantasy owners are putting their heads in the oven after not getting their fantasy goodness against the Raiders this week, and how Darren Sproles is drinking their milkshake. Folks, it's not 2008 anymore, and LdT wasn't the #1 pick for a reason; the world is a committee now, and LdT still got the short yardage touchdown; complete meltdown isn't really the play here. Sure, we were all expecting a lot more, but only because the Raiders have been rolling over on MNF for so long, it's a shocker to see them keep the game tight. Had Richard Seymour not reported, I'm pretty sure it would have been much closer to the usual story.

The Ravens somehow gave up a fair number of points to the Chiefs with a backup quarterback at home, and only won and covered the spread thanks to a breakout day from Joe Flacco. I'm not seeing the Ravens doing that again on the road with a cross-country plane flight, and the Chargers defense is bound to play a little more aggressively at home. And while it makes me antsy to give the nod to Philip Rivers against a ballhawking defense, it's just very possible that this defense isn't what we think it is, since they don't have Bart Scott anymore. (And the Jets do. Patriots Fan is worried, even outside of their wrap-up.)

Cleveland at DENVER(-3)

Wow, someone's got to win this game, don't they? Your choice here is to either back Brady Quinn on the road or Kyle Orton to do a damn thing, and the RBs (a spent Jamal Lewis or a banged-up Knowshon Moreno) are also less than thrilling. Hell, there isn't even a good defense to hang your hat on, or a singular talent to take it over. If you're really picking this game with confidence, you either know more than I do, or have a Serious Gambling Problem.

Well, so be it. Give me the home team with the running backs and offensive line; if the Browns couldn't stop Adrian Peterson from humiliating them at home last week, maybe they just get crushed again on the road, in altitude. And who knows, maybe the seven points the Bronco defense held the Bengals to last week speaks to old-time early season competence, rather than Carson Palmer simply being rusty. In a game of Resistable Force against Movable Object, you take what you can.

Broncos 20, Browns 14

NEW YORK at Dallas (-3)

The SNF game in Jerruh Jones' monument to his own damn self is supposed to be a tight game against the probable division leader, but the single biggest regular season reason why Eli Manning is now a wildly wealthy man is the fact that he's put up pinball numbers against the Cowboys, frequently on national television. Can he do it again, on the road, with weapons that don't seem all that scary? Well, sure, since it's the offensive line that makes him look good, especially when the key to beating the Cowboys like a rented mule is to just keep your quarterback upright.

For the Cowboys, Felix Jones is already dinged up, Tony Romo hit some huge plays against the Bucs last week, and the defense actually gave up significant points and yards to Byron Leftwich and company last week. I like the road team to win outright here, because the history of teams in brand new yards is never that great -- the new buildings tend to price out the people who actually yell, and since this stadium has a big damn television to further reduce yelling. Besides, um, the Giants are good. Especially against this team, where they are never, ever, outcoached... and Romo will turn the ball over if you give him a chance.

Giants 31, Cowboys 20

INDIANAPOLIS at Miami(+4)

The first of what should be many middling at best MNF games has the Colts on the road against a Dolphins squad that was lifeless in their road opener. The visitors took the full measure of the Jaguars in a win with surprising defensive force, and it's hard not to see them doing the same thing to a club that seems to be incapable of offensive fireworks that aren't Wildcat related.

There's also this: Peyton Manning isn't going to give you game manager numbers in a nationally televised game, and the Dolphins offense isn't going to be able to keep the defense off the field. Eventually, he's going to take advantage of the fatigue of the home team, and there's going to be hurt looks in the directon of Chad Pennington. He won't have the job next year, and maybe not even later this year. Besides, the MNF games have to suck, don't they?

Colts 34, Dolphins 13

Last week: 5-11

Year to date: 5-11