Bust Sleepers

Every year in fantasy football, especially as the season becomes longer as more and more people succumb to the disease that is over-preparation, a consensus seems to develop around certain players. And after weeks of hearing obvious points made, it becomes clear that we've gone beyond sleepers and busts, because people aren't just taking one turn at the advice water fountain... and when the consensus busts kick in, it just seems like dogpiling.

So, as a public service to the rest of Blogfrica, I'd like to point out the kings of the double move -- aka the Bust Sleepers, the name-brand players that, well, just might not fall off a cliff this year. Keep them in mind when you are looking suspiciously at them 1-3 rounds after they should have been drafted.

> Kurt Warner. Something of a sore spot for me, in that he's a cheap keeper in one of my leagues, and I'm just getting tired of hearing how he's eight billion years old and will break in a stiff wind. He still has the starter's job and contract in a pass-first, second and third offense that has ridiculously good WRs. He's also got a bad defense that ensures shootouts, a running game that won't salt away anything, a terrible division to enjoy for six games a year, and a warm-weather site that should be gold in the fantasy playoffs. He's also young for a fossil, since it's not like he spent the early years of his career in the NFL, and as the only Super Bowl quarterback in franchise history, really not that much of a chance to lose the gig to trustaraian Matt Leinart. Sure, he's injury and turnover prone; that's why you are drafting Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning ahead of him. Nobody else, though.

> Clinton Portis. This one hurts, in that I've never owned the guy in any league, hate the Redskins with a passion that few men know, and would utterly love to see the guy go down in a heap and doom that franchise to a 12-loss year. (Albeit one with some improbable win over my Eagles. Honestly, the rest of the NFL needs to send us fruit baskets for keeping Jason Campbell in the league.)

Portis has all the trappings of a bust pick: he's aging, a RB, takes a lot of punishment and isn't going to out-quick younger defenders anymore. But he's, well, all they have, and it's physically impossible for (a) their young wideouts to suck worse than they did last year, or (b) that offensive line to be any less healthy. Portis won't win you championships with a first round pick, but in the second, many will do worse than 1,400 combined yards and 12 TDs.

> Thomas Jones. History is littered with powerful college running backs who were supposed to vulture all of the goal-line touches away from a fading vet. And yet, Tony Hunt never really did anything to Brian Westbrook, TJ Duckett never ate Warrick Dunn, and Maurice Morris had absolutely nothing to do with the end of Shaun Alexander. The lesson is this: draft picks don't always work out, and teams that moves the ball on the ground don't always change horses at the finish. The Jets still have a great offensive line, along with a coach that's going to try to recreate the Joe Flacco Experience. Jones also doesn't have the lifelong use pattern that says he's spent, and he finished last year strong. I wouldn't expect the same monstrous year he had last year, but he's not going to fall off the face of the earth, either.

> Brandon Marshall. The leading light of the NFL's Young And Stupid WR Corps, Marshall has to somehow come to terms with the downgrade from Jay Cutler to Kyle Orton, could comnbust at any moment with criminal activities, and could easily be set aside by a coaching staff that was stupid enough to, well, let their franchise QB leave while they pined for familiar faces. But it's not like the Broncos have another possession wideout, won't be throwing it 45 times a game (seriously, the defense went from horrible to old and horrible), or play in a division with shutdown defenses. He still has risk, of course, but if you're letting him slip past the Top 20 WRs, it's probably personal.

> Jay Cutler. Yes, his schedule is harder, and his weapons are worse. But it's not like he's working without weapons. Matt Forte is better than any RB he's ever worked with. Greg Olsen is better than any TE he's ever worked with. Devin Hester is not useless, Earl Bennett has college familiarity, and, um, Cutler's actually really good on his own damn self. There's a reason why Chicago backed up the truck to get him.

Will his numbers be the same as in Denver? Of course not; he won't be in a million shootouts, and it will take time to develop timing and talent. But for all of these honks who pule that Kyle Orton will be better in fantasy this year? Um, no. Besides, Cutler's got this starting job, on a good team, until he dies. Orton won't even last the year in Denver, and maybe not even the first half. You really don't want to get involved with the Broncos this year.

Add your Bust Sleepers in the comments...