Sunday, July 11, 2010

The Final LeBron Words

So with the sports world continuing to be in eclipse with the continuing howl that is Cleveland Fan's anguish, I'm struck by the following points.

1) The Cavs might as well move or disband.

First there was Carlos Boozer, now LeBron James. Then they hit a once-in-a-lifetime win by (a) winning the lottery in the best year ever to win the draft, (b) getting a hometown guy, and (c) having him do everything but win a championship. When they lost him, the owner reacted like a plantation owner that had his prize buck emancipated, or a spousal abuser receiving a restraining order. Rest assured that the agents of the world, and the athletes they represent, aren't going to miss this point... and it's not as if the team is going to have any kind of home-court advantage for years and years, if ever. Jerry Reinsdorf's inability to get a free agent after the Micheal Jordan Experience has got nothing on Dan Gilbert and his LeBron Freakout.

If they win more than half of their games in any single year in the next five... I'll be surprised. Very surprised.

2) The Heat are *not* the new Yankees.

As much as the Bad Tooth wants his Celtics to stop being the most hated team in the Eastern Conference, it's not going to happen. All of those banners, and all of that history with his laundry ending the dreams of just about every other team in the Association, trumps a summer of loading up at the Free Agent Buffet. The only way the Heat became well and truly hated is if they become oppressively good, and with minimal support from the rest of the roster at present, plus the cohesive and defense issues that are present for any tem with an entirely new roster. Miami is going to be entertaining, and entertaining isn't hated. They are also going to sell an awful lot of merch.

3) The timing of the event is, from an impact standpoint, perfect.

Think about it. Today, the World Cup Final will be the biggest story in sports, which is to say, a game that you only care about if you are from Holland, Spain, or care about soccer... i.e., less than 5% of the US sports audience. Absolutely no one, it seems, has paid any attention to the Wimbledon finals this year, and that's over anyway. (Confession: I had to check.) There's no fight or wrestling spectacle on the radar. The baseball All-Star Game has faded along with the sport. Preaseason football games don't happen for another four weeks. All of the major basketball free agents are locked down. It's the perfect storm of unprecedented public event and slow news week.

So since we've got nothing else to talk about, and haven't seen anything like this before. What happens is a continous circle of outrage and escalation. James becomes the worst betrayer ever. Leaving Cleveland on an ESPN special is the most awful thing ever. He's Hitler-riffic. He's Darth James. Ad nauseaum. And if you are the best at escalating the comparison, you win... traffic. And the admiration of Cleveland Fan, who is still in the Anger stage of dealing with loss.

4) The Heat could easily win nothing.

For everyone who is ready to annoint them as a top challenger to the NBA crown... well, um, wait a minute. Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade have had serious injury issues in their careers. Mario Chalmers is presumed to be the point guard for this mess, and he's really not the Derek Fisher-style kind of player that would work best here -- i.e., a lockdown defender who hits countless open threes from matchup issues. They'll need multiple big men who can defend the rim and keep Bosh from getting worn down on defense. Bench players that are good enough to keep the moneyed upper-crust from playing 40 minutes a game. A lot of luck in regards to injury, and the clear realization that they are going to get the "A" game from a lot of dog teams, and filled arenas for every road game.

Luckily for them, they still play in the Eastern Conference, where the only teams they need to be better than are the aging Celtics, the highly flawed Magic, a Bulls team that might have been the biggest non-Cavs losers in the free agent dance, and a Hawks team that completely quit on their fans in round two. It's not as if they've got to get through the Lakers to make the Finals, or have to worry about the rebounding Rockets with Yao Ming, or the emerging Thunder with Kevin Durant.

5) Within six weeks, there will be a backlash against the backlash.

Cleveland is like many other cities, in that it's a hell of a lot easier to have sympathy for them when you aren't there. Now that we've had the better part of a week to watch James jerseys being burned to bits, and outdoor signs are being torn down... well, there's only so long that people who aren't from there are going to care.

But on the plus side, Cleveland Fan, you'll stop seeing those loving montages of how this ranks against other bad moments in your past. Honestly, in a better country, anyone who makes those things should be held on war crimes.

6) The Chicago Bulls were being hopelessly and relentlessly fluffed.

Look, Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah are fine young players and all, but it's not like they've ever won anything, and it's quite possible that Rose starts believing his own press clippings and becomes a Stephon Marbury-esque defensive matador and egotist. Noah's had injury issues, and will never be a particularly good low-post scorer. Now that they've got Boozer, they'll be better, but there's a reason why that man is on his third team, and he's been absolutely useless against the Lakers (i.e., a tall and athletic team that can defend). If the Celtics get Kendrick Perkins back, I don't see the Bulls beating the Celtics, and had James joined them, there's no reason to think that he and Rose would have cohabitated. We are talking about a franchise that was dumb enough to not just hire Vinny del Negro, but keep him for years.

So... did James make the right choice? Well, he didn't go to New York, which would have been the place to go for money and stats, since the Mike D'Antoni Knicks would have easily gotten him to triple double stage with the pace of play. He didn't stay in Cleveland, where he had more or less complete control of the franchise, the most money, and a fan base that needed him, it seems, far more than the reverse. He probably never seriously considered the Clippers or Nets, because you just shouldn't.

So the only real choice was Chicago or Miami. In Miami, he gets better weather, no state income tax, guys that he likes and played with on the Olympic team, and a teammate that can carry a team to a win when he doesn't have it. I'm not sure it's a better choice than Chicago, and we won't know until the rest of the roster shakes out, but it seems a fair bet.

Which means that in the final analysis, the only real issue that people are going to have with this is the method in which James delivered the news. So how long will that last, really? If you are Cleveland Fan, forever. If you are an NBA Fan, six months. Still a long time, still a big deal, but eventually the games will happen, and actual results will trump the personal drama.

And yes, it's sad for Cleveland. But it's not as if they aren't used to it by now, right?

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