Week 9 NFL Picks: Pandemia

While prepping this column, I started to feel untoward, and wound up losing consciousness. This happens far too often, considering my general lack of sleep and advancing age, but this was a different story; this was Full Blown Unwell. And two days before a scheduled flu shot. Just unfair, really.

It turns out to have been more along the lines of food poisoning than contagion, in that no other symptoms arose, and there were no other fun moments (fevers, chills, etc.) to knock me off my feet. Mind-clouding pain and hurt were enough, really. But the real issue, in regards to the picks, is what happens next. If I have a hot week, is it The Unwell? Do I need to provoke ill health to get over the .500 mark in this endeavour?

Of such drama are Week Nines made, as we're in the middle of everything, too far away from actual playoff importance but knee deep in Tremendous Fantasy Relevance. So let's get on with it, shall we? Before something else Untoward happens...

And with that, on to the picks!

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Baltimore at CINCINNATI (+3)

I'm a big fan of home teams coming off byes, and that's the Bengals this week. Last time these teams met, Cedric Benson ended the mystique around the Ravens defense and cemented his status as a top 10 fantasy running back. This time around, they are at home, and while the Ravens have scored a fair amount of points this year, I can't shake the feeling that Joe Flacco is far too quick to take the checkdown route, and if you can simply keep Ray Rice in his shoes, you can handle this offense.

There's also this: the Ravens defense is a paper tiger bunch this year, living on reputation rather than results. Bart Scott's absence matters a lot, but there's also the fact that Ray Lewis just isn't his old stabby self, and Ed Reed isn't having the monstrous year to cover last year's problems. I hate taking Marvin Lewis in a close game, because he just seems incapable in these situations to date. But he just seems to have more talent, and Carson Palmer's also been coming on. I actually think the home team will be up by a decent amount and hold on for the cover here.

Bengals 24, Ravens 20

Miami at NEW ENGLAND (-11)

A month ago, I'd have loved this game for a road cover. The Dolphin version of the Wildcat had its heyday, after all, in this game a year ago, and the move to Chad Henne seemed to give them the deep game that they needed to give the run game some air. It's not all scheme, either. Miami's offense exposes linebacker problems more than anything, and the Patriots have had ancient, slow and out of position backers for some time now.

However, it's a month later. The DolphinCat has been pretty bad for weeks now, and the Pats have shown signs of Overdrive Mode. The game is also at home, and you have to think that the Patriots will go for the massive blowout payback game here. The Pats are also unlikely to give up the monster special games plays that kept the Fish in flakes last week, and it's also getting cold enough in the Northeast to give the home team a real edge. And of course, if there's snow, the Patriots opponents quit. I don't know why, but they just do. Too much riding in the way of a blowout.

Patriots 31, Dolphins 17

Kansas City at JACKSONVILLE (-7)

Boy, is this a game that you don't want to watch, and in my condition, I'm really going to avoid it. The Jaguars are that bad team that's impossible to predict -- honestly, a loss to the Vince Young winless Titans in which you were never really in the game? -- and the Chiefs have stunk from first whistle this year.

Maybe the road team kicks it into gear now that Larry Johnson has been shown to the door, and it's not as if the Jags have any kind of home field advantage. Then again, when the resistible force meets the resistible object, go for the team with the best single element -- and that's Maurice Jones-Drew, in a walk. It also doesn't hurt that MJD has himself in his fantasy league.

Jaguars 23, Chiefs 14

ARIZONA at Chicago (-3)

Oh, you maddening Cardinals. Three straight road wins, coming home to face the Delhomme-murdered Panthers... and it's one of those Old Time Bad Warner games, with a half dozen turnovers and a TAInt, just to remind us all why Captain Jebus will not be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. This week, they get the similarly maddening Bears.

If you have a real good feeling about either of these teams, let me cure you of it. Both QBs have been turnover machines, both OLs are trouble, neither team can run the ball, and both teams have Jekyll and Hyde defenses. I'm going to go with the Cards from the idea that they've gotten their crappy game out of their system, and they've been good on the road all year. But go flip a coin, really. Unless the Cards win big, at which point I'm a genius. (Also, it seems like the Bears' secondary could be worse than Arizona's, and since I'm finally putting Hobbling Anquan Boldin on the bench in my fantasy team, it's time for him to go off.)

Cardinals 31, Bears 24

Washington at ATLANTA (-10)

Can the Skins look any better coming off a bye and stepping up in class on the level of the opponent? Betting them right now is just an exercise in undue faith, given the utterly emasculated coaching situation, bad blocking and defense that's got to be thinking hard about January golf dates.

Atlanta did finally get Michael Turner running well last week in New Orleans, but the final score still should not have been close (thanks for the screwed up cover, Michael Bell), and the secondary is still a mess. At least the game is at home, in a dome... and I can't shake the idea that Atlanta is going to be a wild-card team. Wild card teams win games like this one.

Falcons 24, Redskins 13

GREEN BAY at Tampa Bay (+10.5)

More potential here for a letdown then I'm really comfortable with, as the Pack is just a loss and a seemingly inevitable Aaron Rodgers injury from playing out the string. The road team also gagged up Farvegeddon last week, and are now looking up at the very real chance that their all-time religious artifact will lead their hated rival to the best season in their history. That's gotta hurt.

Beyond the histrionics regarding the QB position, the real issue in Green Bay is back end talent evaluation. I get that they've had injuries, but when your goal line target is a converted linebacker and you are signing Street Fossil Ahman Green to return kicks, that's really not saying much for your draft and minor free agent signings. When you are looking for someone to return kicks, best to go for the young and nimble, really.

The Bucs are winless but with some trace amount of hap (i.e.n Not Hapless), and this Pack team has the usual skittishness of a club with a bad offensive line. But against a rookie QB with bad weapons against a secondary that's opportunistic if not actually good, they won't get it down, probably after a game changing TAInt. (If Josh Freemen was really ready and/or good, he'd have had this gig several months ago.)

Packers 27, Bucs 13

Houston at INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5)

Here's more proof why, just in case you weren't convinced by now, that fantasy football is horrible, and that the only thing that makes it worse is being in multiple leagues. In my keeper league, I have Steve Slaton for a wonderfully low rookie salary value; his long-term success is the most important thing to me in that league. He's been horrible this year on everything but a screen pass, and the fumbling led him to lose his job, at least for one game, to Eagles castoff Ryan Moats in a choice matchup against Buffalo last week.

So, disaster, right? Not so fast. I was facing Slaton in a head to head league, with a team that's just been cursed at RB and was starting the immortal Leonard Weaver at RB2... who promptly took off for a 41-yard touchdown run, while Slaton was headed to the showers.

Now, in a fantasy-free zone, the Slaton/Moats situation would not register at all, and Weaver's touchdown would just be fun. But with all of this happening at once, it was just overkill, and I was flying all over the Net trying to find out if Slaton was hurt or just benched, if Texans' coach Gary Kubiak had him bounced to the practice squad, if Brian Westbrook's concussion was serious enough to make Weaver a viable play again next week, etc., etc.

Anyway, getting back to Actual Prediction Gist... last week, the Colts played their flat game and beat the Bucs by four at home. This week, they'll be amped up again for their fraudulent division rivals, who will be missing Owen Daniels for the rest of the year. Houston's not going to the playoffs from that moment alone, independent of what's happening at RB, because the mid-range on their passing game just went poof. And besides, the Colts almost never come out flat two weeks in a row, and the Texans' ability to stop the run is pretty irrelevant against The Real Manning.

Colts 31, Texans 17

Carolina at NEW ORLEANS (-14.5)

Fun fact: the Saints have five touchdowns off of picks so far this year. I'm *pretty* sure that they'll add at least one or two more in this game, unless the Panthers do the smart thing and just outlaw the passing game entirely, and take every possible second of the clock in every offensive possession. At least that way, they'll cover the spread. Maybe. (I'm still waiting for some DOA coach to bet the spread hard through a third-party, then concede for the 1-0 record book loss. Go with a smile, I say; a smile made of money.)

Getting back to this game, it also doesn't help fans of competitive football that the Panther secondary isn't actually any good, and the Saints are just a machine. They'll lose at some point this year, but not now.

Saints 34, Panthers 17

DETROIT at Seattle (-10)

Perhaps the biggest point spread ever for a team that's been blown out in repeat games, but that's what the Lions get for coming off their bye week at home to get handled by the previously winless Rams. The reason why I'm expecting a cover here (and getting sucked into betting the Lions for a second straight week, gahhh) is that the Seattle offensive line is just that bad right now, and I'm expecting Lions WR Calvin Johnson to come back and have a huge game, if only because he's utterly murdered my fantasy team, and needs to come back and be huge to get me to that ultimately bitter Just Missed finish. That's fun.

It's also time to say goodbye to Edge James, released this week by the Seahawks so that they could get more carries to Julius Jones. In related news, Seattle will be taking a running back in the first round of next year's NFL draft. And if they are smart, the second. And maybe the third.

Seattle 24, Lions 17

Tennessee at SAN FRANCISCO (-4)

One win against three wins, and that's really all that you need to know here. Don't watch. But for those of us who will, the stunning return of QB Alex Smith to quasi-fantasy relevance, along with the single point of niceness in Tennessee (aka, Chris Johnson) will give actual moments of footballery in the midst of a just blah game. The more shocking thing is that after the Niners will this game, they'll still be in the playoff picture, and with the Rams and Seahawks in the division, along with an earlier win in Phoenix, they aren't even out of consideration for the division. Hell, if they had simply stopped Farvalicious on that last-second connection to Greg Lewis earlier this year, they'd be a Cinderella story. Hard to believe, really.

Now that the Titans have their win for the year, and Vince Young has shown that he might have been OK had he gotten the gig a month ago, I'm expecting the Titans to go back to sleep, and Vince Young to go back to being Vince Young. There's also the matter of Bad Team on the Road, so. Go, Alex, go; make my 2008 pick of you as a late-round sleeper look less awful.

Niners 23, Titans 17

SAN DIEGO at New York Giants (-4.5)

Is this Giants team actually bad? It's very possible, really; the early season wins were mostly against cupcakes (Washington, KC, Oakland), the recent losses have been downright terrible, Eli Manning has never been a good second-half quarterback, and the run defense has been downright porous. They get the road Chargers, which is to say a team that's always disappointed on the road, against a Giants team that's a loss away from being not only out of the division race, but in real trouble for the wildcard.

Something's not right here, and it's not right all over. The offensive line is supposed to be one of the best in the league; it's erratic. RB Brandon Jacobs is supposed to be one of the best power backs in the business; he is, but only on about 10% of his carries. RB2 Ahmad Bradshaw is supposed to be an electric change of pace back, and he's even more erratic than the line. And the defense is just mystifying, especially when they do things like leave DeSean Jackson ten yards behind the secondary. They hold no fear right now.

The Chargers also come into this game having finally made the move that fantasy owners did years ago by cutting loose Chris Chambers, which means more looks for breakout candidate Malcolm Floyd. Between him, sneaky great WR Vincent Jackson and TE Antonio Gates, QB Philip Rivers doesn't even need to be accurate; he just needs enough time to let the pattern develop. I think he'll get it, and that the G-Men will be in full rebuilding mode. And even if they don't pull off the upset, they'll lose by a small enough margin to cover on a Norvilicious screw up. Counting the days until he's gone yet, Bolt Fan?

Chargers 24, Giants 20

Dallas at PHILADELPHIA (-3)

Here's a sentence I'd never thought I'd write; I miss Terrible Owens in this game. Like all great mid-level heels, he added a certain extra joy to beating Dallas, even though he usually got his own numbers in the effort. The late game temper tantrum, the helmet throws, the promise of ambrosia-sweet tears and the easiest Blog Grist in Christiandom from a post-game freakout... Well, Dallas Week just isn't the same.

It also doesn't help matters that Terrible's exit and Roy E. Super Stinky Williams' injuries have allowed Dallas to finally stumble into the best WR on the roster, the white-hot Miles Austin. Austin gets his big boy pant test in this one, going against an Eagles defense that's usually death on speed #1 wideouts (not so much the big SOB's). They've also been getting after the QB in the last few weeks, which should mean big plays in both directions against the mobile but loose Tony Romo.

If Dallas was smart, they'd ride their three credible backs and Jason Witten to a ball control game, and hope to harass Donovan McNabb into inaccuracy. They will also need to keep DeSean Jackson from going yard on them, which has rarely worked out in 2009 or in games against Dallas, and the other developing pass catching threats (Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek) from getting off. Let's just all say it as one: Too Many Weapons.

For the Eagles, they come in from the annual Run The Damn Ball Wake Up Win against the Giants, and New York's troubles notwithstanding, this Cowboy defense isn't as good. Bet the over with confidence. And the Eagles with less confidence, to take their third straight game, and the inside track on a title, in a surprisingly soft NFC East.

(Oh, and Vegas? Screw you. We know that a three point favorite at home means that you think the teams are even. Independent of anything else, my Eagles have, unlike the Dallas Cowboys, won playoff games in this millennium. I'm getting well and truly agitated about this Lack Of Respect. I know you're all bitter about the Oakland loss, and I am too. But three points at home? An insult.)

Eagles 34, Cowboys 24

PITTSBURGH at Denver (+3)

Every blind pig stumbles upon an acorn, and even a complete legend like Greatest Winner In NFL History Kyle Orton will have a game like last week's slop heap in Baltimore. Vegas has a surprising lack of respect for the Broncos, and makes them a home dog against the Steelers...

But Pittsburgh is also (a) coming off a bye, (b) the defending Super Bowl champions (I just gave the Steeler Fans who read this blog a stiffie), and (c) actually possessing a running game, now that Willie Parker is no longer involved. But don't worry, Bronco Fan; it won't be Orton's fault, and my continued hatred of him and the Cutler Trade just means that I'm stupid and stubborn. You've got the division won, and in all likelihood, the Super Bowl. Orton is just that good. Why haven't you retired his jersey already?

Steelers 27, Broncos 17

Last week: 5-8

Year to date: 56-57-2