Week 10 NFL Picks: Going To The Enn Eff Hell

Has it really been six hundred and sixty six years since the NFL Network launched? It only seems that way, folks. So it's that special time of year, when the days are getting shorter and the economic worry is getting long, where you've got a freshly unwelcome race to close your picks column and fantasy league lineups. All for the sake of a Thursday night game that you won't get to watch, which is probably a plus, seeing how the games are always dogs. (Actually, the games are more like the parasites that live inside dogs, and come out in stomach-curdling ways. But the specter of more Deion Sanders in my life is really enough self-hurt for one day.)

You've got to respect the league's willingness to continually step in it, year after year, with their house network that doesn't get distribution. Between the second-tier games that bone gamblers, creates an even greater timesuck for fantasy honks, and somehow makes all of us hate our cable systems more than usual... well, you also get the weakening of the Sunday slate of games (especially the 4pm slate), Bryant Gumbel, maddening ads, and probably some form of breast cancer. There's got to be a reason for all that pink, people. THINK.

The annual return to prominence of the NFL Network should be added to the list, along with flu season and/or flu shots, Christmas decorations that go up before Halloween, cleaning leaves from the neighbor's trees out of your gutters, staring down that first high heating oil bill that's money going to political interests that you loathe... all the things that make the first two weeks of November something like a grim preview of February.

It's also one of those things that convince you that becoming Old and Bitter also means you are becoming smart enough to know better, while everyone else is as dumb as hammers.

The world *is* going to hell in a hand basket.

I'm increasingly beginning to relate to Abe Simpson.

My footwear needs to become more comfortable, and my furniture needs to recline.

I Have Gone To The NFL.

And the rest of you need to get a haircut, start wearing hats -- seriously, start rocking that fedora -- and stay the hell off my lawn. I've got a bony fist to shake, and I'm not afraid to shake it.

And with that... on to the picks!

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CHICAGO at San Francisco (-3)

Here's a telling point: when the promos for the upcoming game involve how one of the team's coaches used to play for the other team, you might not have a terribly compelling game. Ooh, baby! I can't stop thinking about the unholy hell that Coach Mike Singletary is going to unleash on the... team that helped make him a Hall of Fame linebacker. What, exactly, will Singletary do to ensure a win here that he doesn't do every damn week? Wear a bigger crucifix? Drop trou in public, rather than the locker room? Have a press meltdown? Stare at the Bears with his super-scary beady eyes? The last time I've seen hype this contrived, my relatives were marching on Washington to demand that the government get out of their Medicare. (Yes, the Shooter Relatives are frequently unfortunate. Moving on.)

Getting back to the actual game, you've got two teams that have truly thrown the gambling public, and the loser can probably give up their playoff hopes, especially after last week's craptastic losses. The Bears were out with speed at home against the Cardinals, while the Niners got punked by the resurgent Titans of Vince Young and Chris Johnson. The three point favorite at home means that Vegas has no idea what to do with these teams either; that's bookie code for an even game.

Given how bad the Bears looked on defense, especially in the secondary, it's tough to take the road team here. But I'm going to, because I suspect the Bears have a bounce-back game from the run defense, and I just don't buy the Niner weapons. The Niners also lost my trust for good this year in their home quit game against the Falcons. But if you'd like to flip a coin for this pick, or just boycott it on the general principle that NFL Network games aren't televised, I can't blame you.

Bears 27, Niners 24

DENVER at Washington (+3.5)

Why does Vegas refuse to buy into the legend of Gritty Winner and Heartland Hearthrob Kyle Orton? Probably because they've seen him play. The Broncos are just a game away more or less from making their early division lead go poof, but at least they get the stillborn Redskins to make thing all right.

The long plane trip and road game might give Bronco baiters some comfort, but it's not like DC United In Hatred Of Daniel Snyder has any kind of home field advantage right now. Washington's toothless offense is also missing Chris Cooley and (probably) Clinton Portis, putting more of the onus on QB Jason Campbell, who usually racks up yards, avoids picks, but can't put points on the board because the opposition can just ratchet up the pressure when the possession hits the red zone. The continuing mystery of whether Campbell is an NFL QB trapped in a no-win situation or a no-win NFL QB is kind of fascinating on a scientific level, but in all likelihood, he's just mediocre. (I'd be happy to see him cut loose and come back to haunt the Skins from some other city, of course.)

Expect an ugly game, lots of Brandon Marshall, and the usual half dozen ugly Orton possible picks that only get to the ground thanks to his Gritty Leadership. I'm also looking for the home team to spend more time worrying about mean signs in the stands than football. (Oh, Daniel, you are the best thing to ever happen to the Redskins. For everyone else in the NFC East, Scientologist haters, and men who aren't short. On the whole, I love you long time.)

Broncos 20, Washington 16

ATLANTA at Carolina (+2)

The team that can't defend the pass (thanks to injuries and being not very good at it before injuries, and that would be Atlanta) against the team that's afraid, for good reason, to throw it -- which means that both teams are just too flawed to even think about games in January. But what the hey, the game gambles the same. Besides, no one really wants to see three NFC East teams in the playoffs, if only because I don't want to lose the ability to say that the millennium is free of Cowboy playoff wins.

For the Falcons, Michael Turner has been picking it up recently, while Matt Ryan has struggled, and the fact that the QB is just more important means the offense isn't putting up points. I'm seeing a good game for Tony Gonzalez to compensate.

Carolina will get back to wasting the best years of DeAngelo Williams' life with Jake Delhomme, and while the defense is actually better than you might think, it's just got to be depressing to go out there and get put on a short field from terrible turnovers all the time. I'm convinced that the Panthers are the best bad team in the NFC, and if they simply had an average QB, a playoff team, but to be fair, it's not all Jake.

The dirty little secret of Carolina is that the pass catchers (including Steve Smith) just aren't any good. Moose Muhammad is basically out there for his blocking now, the TEs are inconsistent, the RBs aren't terribly great in the flat, and none of the backups stretch the field or do anything special. See if you can tell the difference between the unconscionable TAInt on the QB, and the bad route from the WR or TE that makes sure the pick happens. That's what we call a team effort, and also why they haven't gone mutiny; Delhomme keeps the rest of them from being called out.

Falcons 24, Carolina 20

NEW ORLEANS at St. Louis (+14)

Terrible teams covered last week, so Vegas is throwing out some more reasonable spreads. This is one that will cost them. New Orleans has been coasting a bit, and top wideout Marques Colston played a bad game last week. Look for them to make a statement game and pad the numbers in a big way against the hapless Rams, who have lost whatever urgency they might have had by getting a win in Detroit.

The Ram hopes for a cover come from keeping Drew Brees off the field for a while with liberal doses of Stephen Jackson, and recent teams (Carolina, Miami) have had success in pounding the Saints in the running game. The problem here is that SJax's year has been marked by a distinct allergy to the end zone, and that's not going to end in this game. So the Saints will answer field goals with touchdowns, and after the Rams open it up to try and get even, picks and turnovers. The best year in Saints history continues, and this is the week where you are going to start hearing Undefeated Season hype. (Don't believe it, by the way. They'll blow a couple soon.)

Saints 44, Rams 24

Tampa Bay at MIAMI (-10)

I kind of believe in this meh Dolphins team, despite the disjointed offense and the defense that relies on ancient players like Joey Porter and Jason Taylor to make plays. Like all Parcells teams, they are just better on the lines than you might think, and every time I'm ready to bury Ted Ginn Jr. in a landfill, he makes a play to stay alive in the league, and disappoint his fantasy owners some other day. He's the WR equivalent of Lawrence Maroney.

At home against the Just Happy To Not Be Winless Bucs, I think they will force rookie QB Josh Freeman into the terrible rookie road game that every newbie QB has, especially when he's got no real weapons at WR (Antonio Bryant's hurt).

The Dolphins are still 1 to 2 seasons away from being more than a regular season headache, especially when it comes to catching the ball. Because of that, the 10 point spread is dicey. But I think they'll get it done with a closer running game that comes up with a Great Moment In Gambling. You have to love those.

Dolphins 24, Bucs 13

Detroit at MINNESOTA (-17)

They could add a touchdown to this biggest spread of the year, and I'd still be taking the home team. Lean times for all of us in the Favre Hate Hall, and glory days for everyone who loves overrated lying media whores. Not a good year at all, really, for Packer Fan. Anyway, back to this game.

Last week in Seattle, the Lions were spotted a 17-point lead on first quarter turnovers and moments of offensive competency. They wound up failing to cover a 10-point spread with five picks by rookie QB Matthew Stafford, who also wound up creating rumors of a rift between him and star WR and first-class fantasy team murderer Calvin Johnson, who could only haul in 2 out of 9 passes thrown in his general direction, due to Stafford's inaccuracies. You'd think that Johnson would be used to inaccurate QBs by now, but I guess with this one likely to be in town for more than a couple of months, it s more worth it to vent when he airmails you.

The Vikings are coming off a bye, have a kitteny schedule for Favre to start putting up Top 10 Fantasy QB numbers (seriously, it's scary how many roto teams are going to win with him this year; it's Kurt Warner 2008 all over again), and also have the best RB in Creation in Adrian Peterson. Count on Johnson putting up points in garbage time, and for there to be a very large amount of garbage time. For your fantasy team's sake, hope it doesn't happen so early as to give major minutes to Tarvaris Jackson and Chester Taylor.

Vikings 45, Lions 21

Jacksonville at NY JETS (-7)

Mike Sims-Walker is the only WR in Jacksonville with any hope of being described as "explosive." He's also about to have one of those late Torry Holt games (3 catches, 32 yards) on the road in New York against Darrelle Revis, where the Jets will force Jaguars QB David Garrard to beat them by containing RB Maurice Jones-Drew and going to secondary weapons.

If the Lions weren't in Minnesota this week, I'd be highly tempted to call this game an absolute lock... but that also does assume that QB Mark "The Sanchise" Sanchez doesn't continue to do his 2008 Brett Favre impersonation. The Jets are a good team on the lines, and should put the erratic Jags to sleep early and often... but it's not like the Sanchise can't keep them around all by himself, or that the Jets running game is so good that they can win without some throws.

I like the Jets here because I don't think the Jags can score, and because the return to health from #1 WR Jerricho Cotchery means that Sanchez will have a matching security blanket for TE Dustin Keller, rather than throwing and hoping to anything goes WR Braylon Edwards. If he only had change-up RB Leon Washington to make the screen game good, the Jets would be well on their way to intriguing. They aren't, but this game will fool some.

Jets 27, Jaguars 16

CINCINNATI at Pittsburgh (-7)

A genuinely fascinating game. Cincy goes for the season sweep on the road, and true NFC North dominance. They've got a running game that's been on fire all year, a hot hand in QB Carson Palmer, and a defense that's overcome injury to continue to put pressure on the QB. Their opponent has a strong historical disadvantage of playing a road MNF game the week before, which means they are on short rest despite the home game; that's almost a recipe for tightness.

But unfortunately for the Bengals, their opponent is the defending NFL champions, and a team that's really starting to come together, especially on defense and the running game.

Look for the Steelers to exploit the Bengals' lack of home run hitters at WR (Chris Henry, who has been at his mercurial best in division games, is done for the year, which means that Cincy's starters are both possession guys), and to keep Cedric Benson under 100 yards. On offense, I'm seeing Rashard Mendenhall wearing the big boy pants, and the Steelers depth at WR eventually providing separation.

But it'll be close, if only for the MNF factor, and the fact that the Steelers special teams are a secret killer. The home team will win, but not cover.

Steelers 24, Bengals 20

Buffalo at TENNESSEE (-7)

Are the Titans secretly good, and did Titans coach Jeff Fisher kill his team's season by refusing to switch to Vince Young sooner? Back to back wins under the reclamation QB certainly points them in that direction, and if nothing else, they've got a puncher's chance when RB Chris Johnson is healthy enough to show his best-in-the-NFL speed. The switch to Young has also seemed to get WR Justin Gage, a terrible idea for a #1 but still a fairly decent football player, back in the game as some sort of threat. Had the Titans gone to Young when the season was in doubt, or had Young given the team any indication that this might happen if they did, they might still have a legitimate wild-card hope.

This week, they get the rested and in no way ready Bills, who have one of those Quinn/Anderson no win decisions at QB between dueling noodle arms in Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick. At least the Bills' QB meetings have good vocabulary, between Trentative going to Stanford, and Ryno being a Hahvahd man. And to think, between these two and Terrible Owens, in all this time, you haven't been happy that the Bills stink. What's wrong with you?

Titans 20, Bills 6

Kansas City at OAKLAND (-2)

A one win team against a two win team, so the two win team is favored. Plus they are at home. Simple enough decision, really? Just take the home team in what is essentially a meaningless pick 'em game and move along, safe in the knowledge that the NFL could refuse to televise this game and probably get positive PR for it. But nope... because this is the kind of game that I never get right, really, and it just rankles.

Oakland is a home team coming off a bye. They get back home run hitter (and, more often, misser) Darren McFadden this week, and they play a Chiefs team that's good times for just about any offense. Finally, they play a hated division rival in a game where their fans are likely to be amped for at least the first ten minutes, or until QB JaMarcus Russell causes them to curse the skies for being so unlucky as to miss on a #1 overall pick at QB. (Insert a dry, knowing chuckle here. Oh, Raider Fan, you're a lot of fun, really.)

Finally, there is this: even if Russell worked hard, wasn't fat, was accurate and a great load of other things that he ain't, just who, exactly, was going to help coach this young guy up? The franchise is a mess of front office intrigue and turmoil. The owner / GM keeps bringing in fast young players who have no idea where they are going. The most experienced skill player is... Justin Fargas. (No, really. I looked it up.) The back-up QB is Bruce Gradkowski, which is to say, a guy with less experience in live football games. Russell could be the second coming of Ben Roethlesberger, and he'd look bad here. As he ain't, he looks terrible.

KC comes in with the benefit of finally ending the Larry Johnson Era, and with QB Matt Cassel having a brand-new (and hopelessly erratic) toy to play with in WR Chris Chambers. He'll have cause to throw to him again this week, since #1 WR Dwayne Bowe will be undergoing the Asomugha Treatment. But the real way to beat this Raiders team is to run them into the ground... which is a damn shame, really, seeing as Johnson is out of town, and the back-ups aren't good with a high volume pounding approach. I'm seeing Chiefs coach and general douchebag Todd Haley losing patience with this one, and Chambers not making enough plays.

Which means that I'm betting on Russell and McFadden and the Raiders, and it's not the first time this year, either. I can understand how this might not be giving you a lot of faith as a reader, really.

Oakland 20, Chiefs 17

DALLAS at Green Bay (+3)

Dallas has surged back to prominence with a pass rush; Green Bay can't stop opposing rushers, and QB Aaron Rodgers is seemingly trying to beat 2008 Ben Rothlesberger's record for Most Undue Faith In His Offensive Line. Unlike Big Ben, Rodgers doesn't seem to play better while showing signs of probable concussion, and if he somehow plays all 16 games for the Pack, that will do much to shorten his life expectancy and end the whispers that he's just not as tough as Farvalicious. In this as in many things, it's not good to be Rodgers.. and honestly, I think he'd be better served if he just tucked it under his elbow and scrambled for yards more. It's not like the guy is unathletic, and if you're going to be hit every play, best to be moving forward when it happens.

The Cowboys benefited from immensely helpful officiating to take control of the NFC East last week in Philadelphia. This week, #1 WR Miles Austin will have an impact for more than one play, because the Packer secondary is secretly awful, and then the RB carousel should close it out and send the Wisconsinites home to drink and eat cheese. Careful observers will notice the difference between this and what they do when they win, but as that would involve carefully observing people from Wisconsin, I'll leave that to the reader.

Cowboys 31, Packers 24

PHILADELPHIA at San Diego (-3)

In many ways, the Chargers are the perfect team to beat these Eagles; big physical #1 WR to win jump balls, pass-catching TE to move the sticks on third down, secondary WR options that also win on being physical, more than being fast. The Chargers are also at home, coming off a huge win in New York, and with the inexplicable Broncos loss to the Steelers on MNF, poised to become highly relevant in the AFC West race. If Philadelphia were an ordinary NFL team, rather than the best year-in year-out regular season team in the NFC in the last decade, they'd win in a walk.

There's also this: the Eagles are increasingly depleted While Will Witherspoon has plugged the gap left by Stewart Bradley, Brian Westbrook is still questionable with ankle and concussion issues, and this week, they lost Ellis Hobbs to a season-ending injury and Joselio Hanson to a four-game drug suspension. Rookie safety Macho Harris is banged up, and star CB Asante Samuel missed snaps last week during the game. So the quality secondary depth that has been the best part of the defense. Against the Charger WRs, who have the kind of physicality that always cause Reid's teams real trouble, this is seriously bad news, and it means that QB Philip Rivers will be spending a good chunk of his time targeting guys from the practice squad. Not Good.

But that's not the way Norvalicious runs, or how Andy Reid buries his team. That happens later.

I'm looking for a heroic effort from Westbrook, who the team always goes back to when their backs are against the wall. Unlike LaDanian Tomlinson, BDub will have a game or two of utility in his swan song year, and this is one of them. The Charger defense is good with a lead, with the secondary play being the best thing about it, but the pass rush is intermittent, and that's a recipe for disaster against Donovan McNabb -- who, despite what you might have read, really wasn't that bad against Dallas last week. When your receivers don't get open, drop passes and tip them up in the air for no-fault picks, that's really not something the QB can overcome. The nice thing about this team is that the young weapons bounce back, and the coaching staff has always been good at pulling their fat out of the fire. If only there weren't so much to pull, really.

Eagles 31, Chargers 28

Seattle at ARIZONA (-9)

Once more into the home field breach for the Cardinals, who would have this division sewn up and be entertaining Poor Man's Saints team comparisons if they could only play a decent game at home. Against a Seahawks team that they utterly manhandled a month ago in Washington State, this should be a cakewalk, especially if QB Kurt Warner finally gets a healthy and motivated QR Anquan Boldin to add to the arsenal. I'm also open to the possibility that their running game is coming around, as the Bears were getting blown up repeatedly, and Chris "Beanie" Wells has some talents. There's a very real chance that the Cardinals are actually much better than last year's blue snow team that was within a stop or two of being NFL champions...

But they are also prone to hideous turnover games and clear air turbulence losses, mostly because the offensive line is just erratic enough to cause wild fluctuations in Warner's effectiveness. I suspect that Arizona will continue to befuddle, and look forward to going against them as big favorites later in the year. But this week will be confetti buckets, because Seattle is also just god-awful on the road, especially on defense.

Cardinals 38, Seahawks 17

NEW ENGLAND at Indianapolis (-3)

Oh, AFC. We were so close, really. Just a few more punchmouth games in October, when the Patriot Monster was as wobbly as Tom Brady on repaired knees, and we could have had one of those years where New England has to work like hell for a bad seed and second-round exit. But Buffalo had to gag up a win, and then the Jets coughed up multiple games, and here we are... just a single big Patriots win from a clear path to the East title, and an equally easy #2 seed or better, assuming the Colts don't fall apart down the stretch.

It's all laid out perfectly for them. The Colts have big injury issues in the secondary, and are finally seeing the effects of losing #2 WR Anthony Gonzalez, as youngsters Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie succumb to the inconsistencies of youth and their super-fruity names. TE Dallas Clark has been worked to the bone, and promising rookie) Donald Brown has also hit the shelf.

There's also this: the Colts haven't looked good for weeks, and have gone back to their Smoke, Mirrors and Manning routine. They were lucky to beat the Dolphins, Niners and Texans, and none of those teams are in the Patriots class. Peyton Manning is deadly under lights and the Pats can be exploited, but it's not going to be enough... especially when the Patriots have the secret weapon of a consistent running game. (Yes, Lawrence Maroney will help your fantasy team this week. That's how beaten up the Colts are right now.)

We're going back to the Masshole Days this week, folks. And it's not going to be pretty.

Patriots 31, Colts 27

BALTIMORE at Cleveland (+11)

The week's schedule ends as it begins: with a dog game that's broadcasted by people who will irritate you. Yay!

In wildly exciting news, the Browns are changing their QB from the big arm jaw-dropping inaccuracy of Derek Anderson to the checkdown-tastic jaw-dropping inefficiency of Brady Quinn. I haven't been this excited since my porcupinish constipation switched to Niagara Falls-esque diarrhea. Take the Browns to the Super Bowl? Say yeah!

The Ravens get to play the usual role of Conquering E-Vile Dudes here in the battle against their old laundry, and I, for one, really hope they are up to the task. May I suggest fake wax mustaches to twirl as you tie Bradykins to the hash marks? Ray Lewis needs a cape; it might make him look fast enough to be in the NFL again.

The Browns sole hope for a cover is a dominating running game, but since they are the last people on the earth who still believe in Jamal Lewis, let's just say their chances are not great. On the other side of the ball, Ray Rice and Joe Flacco will continue with the big numbers, all while making sure no other Raven is reliable for roto. The Ravens will frustrate more than the Browns fans.

Ravens 31, Browns 6

Last week: 6-7

Year to date: 62-64-2