Monday, May 4, 2009

205 Drop: Top 10 signs the new Yankee Stadium is a bandbox

Some quick words about the usual list of snark this morning that aren't nearly as funny, at least not intentionally...

It's not exactly a done deal that the new yard is Coors East. But if it is, the home town team is in serious, serious trouble.

The Yankee philosophy of winning baseball, such as it is under the Fredo Steinbrenner / Brian Cash and More Cashman regime, is simply this: win with as little risk of not winning as possible. You do that by collecting the most predictable asset in MLB; dependable offensive power, preferably based around the merits of slugging and on-base percentage, on offense, and premium starting pitching on defense.

Year over year, this is the asset that is collected in the Bronx; it is also what they draft for, value in trade, and pay for to such an extent that little, if anything, is left over for injury back-ups (witness what they've trotted out there at catcher and third base during the recent A-Rod and Posada injuries). It's also the asset that is most destroyed by a bandbox yard.

Simply put, when your obscenely compensated power hitter hits a three-run bomb that goes 450 feet in the new place, it's a good thing; it keeps the stands filled, creates nice easy high-margin run wins that cover over your faltering bullpen, and stakes your power rotation arms to just rare back and get outs the old-fashioned way; by themselves. You win lots of 8-5 kind of games, you almost never have a long losing streak, and when a bad pitching team comes to town, or you play an MLB- squad after the All-Star Break, you roll them. It's not exactly a formula for playoff success, but you get there, and what the hey, if a few guys get hot in October, you win it all. It's a game that dozens of MLB franchises would like to play; it's roughly akin to being the big stack in poker, bullying the other players, and seeing every flop.

But if the new yard is a bandbox? Well then, your obscenely compensated home run hitter is matched by my MLB- Jason Kendall clone (that'd be the A's Kurt Suzuki, who is as good of a young catcher as you can have, provided you ignore his absolute lack of power) going opposite-field yard, as he did in a recent game at Yankee Stadium 2, Electric Offensive Boogaloo. Suddenly, what wins isn't the neutralized power hitters or the suddenly overtaxed starting pitching, but defense and pitching depth -- you know, like last year's Phillies team, or the '07 Rockies. Compare the defending World Series champions on defense against this Yankee team, especially at shortstop and the outfield (and yes, Yankee Fan, it helps a lot if the outfielder can throw, rather than just run). Compare the relative stats of the middle relievers, provided you can stand to look at WHIPs that look like ERAs, and ERAs that look like interest rates from a guy who breaks thumbs.

Even if the place is what it seems to be, I don't think that NYY falls off the face of the earth; there's too much talent here for the yard to completely overwhelm it, and they do play half of their games on the road, in front of mostly supportive crowds, with relatively few bandbox yards. Maybe the road games keep the pitching staff close to together, or maybe they see real benefit from previous washouts; Phil Hughes looked good in his first start, and Ian Kennedy and Kei Igawa have been better so far in AAA.

But right now, they are constructed in a way that's opposed by their surroundings, and I don't remember a winning MLB team, plus or otherwise, that you could say that about. And more importantly, I don't see this management team being bright enough to change the way they view talent to change anytime soon.

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