With Boston putting a stake in the Angels tonight, Round 1 of the MLB playoffs is in the books, and so is our little picks game. No one got all four rounds correct, and with the points doubling in the second round, it's still anyone's Garment of Greatness.
Simon 85
Brian 85
Bullet 80
Will 75
Shooter 60
Al 55
Truth 30
HHR 30
Liston 25
Chief 25
Post your picks in the comments...
Staff writer The Truth and I compete in a head-to-head playoff predictions battle to see who is the bigger idiot. The loser has to do something that is deeply shameful and personally repugnant on this blog.
Rules: Pick all playoff series. 10 points for getting the winning team right, 10 more for calling the right number of games, 5 if you are one off. Each subsequent round doubles the points on each pick. That's it.
With the Spurs taking out the Bugs tonight, I'm now up 50 points (235 to 185, 10-2 in series versus 8-4)... but since points double every round and we've gone in very different directions for Round 3, it's still anybody's shamefest.
Shooter Picks / Truth Picks
Detroit in 6 / Boston in 7
Lakers in 6 / Spurs in 6
Welcome to the portion of the NFL schedule where two strong but opposite forces face the weary and wary degenerate gambler. On the plus side, we know these teams better than we will ever know them, with a wide and deep knowledge base composed of a 14-game track record. At this point in the season, if you've been paying strong attention, you really do have a decent sense of who will do what... but then the opposite and compelling variable kicks in, which is determining which teams have quit on their coaches, or are playing kids that aren't really better than the veterans, but will give the coaches some idea of what they have before the upcoming draft.
There's also this: home field advantage at this point in the game is highly speculative. Good teams tend to have fan bases that travel, bad teams tend to have fan bases that will gladly sell tickets to try to pay off their investment. Listen to the crowd at the Steelers at Rams game this week, or Cowboys at Panthers. I guarantee you it will have a third of the crowd going the other way.
This leads to strong point spreads and stronger swings, with games getting out of hand and the sense that you have to be a psychologist to give yourself a chance at a payday. Take, for instance, the Seahawks. We know they bully teams at home and that, talent-wise, they look to be the clear #3 team in the conference. Following a bad road loss to a bad home team (Carolina, week 15), you'd normally expect them to have a huge bounce-back laugh riot against the cover-your-eyes Ravens. But maybe they crap the bed again. Maybe the Ravens pull Boller in the first quarter and ride the novelty of waterbug QB Craig Smith to a rage-infused cover after being the only team in the world to be bad enough to lose to the Dolphins this year.
Or the Bengals. Up until last week, you could make the case that this disappointing group of proto-convicts had been the victim of a bad schedule, more than their own inadequacies. So what happens when they go on the road against a flat-out terrible Niners team? They lose to a third-string QB, and Carson Palmer looks like he'll never be the guy he was before the knee injury. And so on, and so on.
You can certainly make the case that until the playoffs, there really isn't much sense in picking these games and putting real money down. And then you look at the lines, and hey, this isn't all that different than usual, and I really like X in the Y game... and anyway, it's what we do. (Besides, I'm still in first in my picks league, which is an indictment of the people in that league, really.)
And with that rousing call to arms, on with the picks!
* * * * *
Pittsburgh covering 7.5 at ST. LOUIS. Consider this game a public and probably early referendum on rookie Steelers coach Mike Timlin (CHECK). His team is actually better on a fast track, given his boom-or-bust RB (Willie Parker, the worst fantasy performance ever for a guy that's in contention to lead the league in rushing yards), his dependence on the passing game for big plays, and his speed over size defense. Last week saw his team get punched in the mouth repeatedly by a Jaguars team that looked for all the world like they were the real Steelers at home. This week, they go against a Rams team that they should just tear apart. And despite my lack of faith in these guys away from home, I'm picking them to do just that.
Dallas covering 10.5 at CAROLINA. Another big road favorite coming off a bad loss at home, needing a big win against a bad team. It's a trend or something. I'm excited about this one, because with Marion Barber making the Pro Bowl despite getting less than a dozen touches a game, maybe they'll finally see what he can do with 25 or 30. Besides, with Romo's thumb banged up and a dominant offensive line, that would be the, um, smart play...
Oakland covering 13 points at JACKSONVILLE. Not so much a trap game as a trap cover. Oakland's been frisky under Josh McNown the last few weeks, and gave Indy all they could handle until late. Yes, the Jags will run for 200+ yards against them, but the funny thing about big rushing days is that they don't always translate into big point wins. If this line was 9.5, I'd go with the home team, but 13 is just too much.
Kansas City as a 4.5 point dog in DETROIT. I like the Chiefs defense a little, and after the el foldo that God did on the Lions this year, I think Ford Field is nice and quiet. Hey, is there still time for a rousing Fire Millen protest, or did we miss that this year? It's amazing what six wins buys you in the Motor City.
INDIANAPOLIS covering 7 in Houston. Time for the Colts to start imposing their will on lesser teams, and Peyton Manning gets rid of the ball too fast for Mario Williams to take over this game. Also, Andre Johnson's career numbers against the Colts are terrible, and the Texans won't stay close unless he reverses that. He won't.
NEW ORLEANS covering 3 against Philadelphia. Thanks to the Bears collapse in Minnesota, this game is meaningless for the Eagles. The last time that Donovan McNabb played a meaningless game for the Eagles is... at some point in the past that I'm not going to look up right now, because crying would be embarrassing and all. A problem for the Eagles in this game is that Reggie Bush might play, and the Eagles make him look better than he is... and Takeo Spikes, who finally was starting to look good the last few weeks, is done for the year. Brees will screen when he isn't finding Marques Colston, who is just the kind of big WR (Burress, Owens) that can just wipe out the Eagles secondary.
BUFFALO as a 3-point dog against the Giants. Fun fact: who has the third-best road record in the NFL? It's the Giants, who have managed to have the defense crank it up nicely to cover for the ever-shrinking Eli. So why am I taking the Bills, who lost their remaining chance at the post-season in the snow in Cleveland last week? Because I just can't imagine the Giants continuing their road mastery, especially with Jeremy Shockey done for the year. I can't wait to bet against this team in the playoffs, I really can't...
Green Bay covering 8.5 at CHICAGO. Would the Bears still be playing relevant football if Brian Griese had been under center last week, instead of Kyle Orton? Probably. Is the Bears defense officially in Pride Mode now (finally!) after stepping up and mostly stopping Adrian Peterson last week? Maybe; it sure helps when Urlacher is allowed to run all over the field. Will any of that matter against a Packers team that's been blessed by the gods this year, and even seems to have lucked into a decent back in Ryan Grant? Not especially. Count on Favre to work with a short field and for Bear Fan to spend most of the second half dreaming of high draft pick QBs and/or Donovan McNabb...
Cleveland covering 3 at CINCINNATI. Has there ever been a bigger false dawn than the Bengals? They draft a QB at number one and an acclaimed defensive coach, and they look like the new lords for a little while... and then those mean old Steelers punk them in a playoff game, the QB gets hurt, the coach can't control anyone in the locker room and the defense sucks eggs through a straw. It's as if the DNA of those uniforms reasserted itself after a brief but spirited fight against Not Sucking. Last time these teams played, it was a shootout: this time, a shooting.
ARIZONA covering 10 against Atlanta. Which team has had the worst year for its fans this year? Miami is officially out of contention once they got a win. Philadelphia. Baltimore and Cincy all expected playoffs and got played. The Jets and Niners had hope and got crushed. The Lions had a false dawn before God turned against them. And then there are the 28 remaining Falcons fans on the earth, six of whom are wearing Free Vick shirts, while the other 22 are too beaten down to say anything about it. Let's just say it's not just the coach that quit here. I think I'd give a high school team three points on the Falcons, and the Cardinals are 7 points better than that. I think.
Tampa Bay covering 6 at SAN FRANCISCO. This line shrank by a point during the week, mostly because no one respects the Bucs' talent (no Pro Bowl picks, and no one howling that they got screwed, though you could certainly make a case for Ronde Barber over Al Harris). With recent wins over the Cardinals and Bengals, the Niners are fooling people into thinking they don't stink; they do. Expect the Bucs to befuddle third-string QB Shaun Hill and putting 8+ in the box to shut down Frank Gore. Meanwhile on the other side of the ball, Jeff Garcia Will Have His Revenge... and you know things are going bad for the Niners when there best story this year is that their punter could be the first guy ever to have a net punting average of over 42 yards. (And that's why they pay me the big bucks to write this column: the punting knowledge.)
New York Jets covering as an 8.5 point dog in TENNESSEE. The Jets looked frisky, especially in the secondary, in the messy weather last week in New England. The Titans will also not have the luxury of knowing which QB to prepare for, and while their defense will probably make enough plays for them to win, it won't be pretty. I like the Jets to cover with honor here, as the Titans continue their sad march to an utterly predictable first-round playoff exit.
NEW ENGLAND covering 22 against Miami. Now that the Dolphins have their win, they join the ranks of a half-dozen team in the 16-game regular season era with a single win to their names. Unlike last week's slopcast against the Jets, the weather isn't expected to be a monumental issue in this game, which means that it's time for Tom Brady and Randy Moss to torture all of those people who had them in their fantasy leagues with a taste of what might have been.
SEATTLE (no line) over Baltimore. We touched on this in the opening. With Kyle Boller at the helm for the Ravens, I'm having a hard time seeing how the road team can win in Seattle, especially when their secondary has been toasted and roasted for the better part of the year. The year can't end fast enough in B'More.
Washington covering as a 6.5 point underdog in MINNESOTA. I'd really like to go with the home team here, but good grief... did anyone else see Tavaris Jackson in the MNF game? He redefines horrible, and he won with some numbers, thanks to some long runs after the catch. His footwork is awful, his decision-making is atrocious, he's not accurate, he gets hurt easy... just what, exactly, is the reasoning behind making this a second round pick? If I were a Vikings fan, I'd be pining for Brooks Bollinger. Or maybe just a direct snap on every play to Purple Jesus. I like the Skins to stick around and for Todd Collins to make just enough throws to cover the spread.
SAN DIEGO covering 8.5 against Denver. The last time these teams played, the Chargers broke out the buckets of confetti and unicycles, and that was in Denver. This game is in San Diego, and it's on MNF, which means it's legally required to be devoid of drama. Look out world, the Chargers are officially on the Norv's False Confidence Roll!
Last week: 5-11 (I deserved this after the Anal Leakage theme, right?)
Season to date: 105-108-11
Monday
Two wins already in the books - White Sox and Brewers - and I'm up $7500. Always nice to start the week right.
Tuesday
ROCKIES over Yankees. Mike Mussina in altitude is usually a bad idea, the Yanks haven't seen Josh Fogg before, and the moneyline is big. As always. You'd think I'd have learned my lesson by now, but no. 2,000 to win 2,940.
Pirates over MARINERS. Tom Gorzelanny has been solid all year, and he's facing the very hittable Miguel Batista. 2,000 to win 2,320.
Astros over ANGELS. Jason Jennings has been solid, while Big Barty Colon hasn't been able to go deep (fat, fried) in a game yet. Have we mentioned Colon's heavy? 2,000 to win 2,980.
Wednesday
5-0 for the week and up $15,000, rolling the competition. Does this make me pussy out and make someone come catch me? You bet your sweet life it does. Late...
This week's baseball picks...
Cleveland over BOSTON with a 10.5 run OVER. Yes, it's the return of the parlay bet that never works, but with both teams swinging the bats well and Boston escaping the ninth tonight (translation: less Papelbon tomorrow), I like the chances for the Tribe to win in a slugfest. Sowers v. Beckett, and the latter has a bad track record vs. Cleveland. 2,500 to win 2,600 on a 10.5 run over, and 2,000 to win 3,300 on Cleveland.
Braves over BREWERS. Smoltz vs. Sheets in an ace matchup, and Smoltz is going for that big win #201. I think he'll celebrate by going "Woo Hoo." 2,500 to win 2,675 on Atlanta.
Wednesday
In the words of my mother, well, that was unfortunate. Nothing to do but blow the rest of the week's hopes on a couple of road dogs.
Giants over METS. Zito vs. Glavine as the Giants try to avoid the sweep. Zito's numbers are bad for the year, but it's mostly come in a few starts, and I think he'll shine under the NYC spotlight. He'll also be motivated to avoid giving the game to Armando Blownitez. 2,500 to win 3,475.
Mariners over ANGELS. Seattle's been playing well and has King Felix going. Last time out, he got hammered against this team; today, he'll deal. Jered Weaver goes for the Halos, and has been a little shaky recently. 2,500 to win 2,875.
Thursday
An even day with a slight bump for the money. Down big, running out of days, have to bet it all on road dogs. Do not try this at home.
Giants over METS. Once more into the Shea, with Matt Cain facing Orlando Hernandez. The moneyline is too good for a pitcher of Cain's standing, and El Duque has been battling health issues since the Truman Administration. 3,475 to win 4,240.
White Sox over JAYS. Buerhle vs. Halladay gives the moneyline big to the home team, but Halladay's coming off an injury, Buerhle has a history of success against the Jays, and the ChiSox usually respond to Ozzie going off his meds. 3,500 to win 4,970.
Friday - No mas! 1-6 so far this week. We're going to go on a three-day binge of drinking Scotch and try to move on. Late.
The A's were down two with two outs in the ninth, nobody on, and an 0-2 count on Eric Chavez. But the third baseman and Smoke Stewart client (yes, our man is also an agent) would not go gently into that good night, and he got on against Tribe closer Joe Borowski with a base hit. Milton Bradley followed with a longball act of vengeance against his old team. Then, Dan Johnson and Bobby Crosby get knocks to chase the closer. Finally, minor league legend Jack Cust went yard against Fernando Cabrera for his sixth home run in the last seven games. Ball game, Oaktown.
It gave the A's a series win, and made them 15-6 against the Tribe in their last 21 games in Oakland. But more importantly, it gave FTT its second win of the year in the Smoke Stewart NBX.com picks contest.
This means that we're going to get a second autographed baseball from the man himself. Having just gotten the first one in the mail yesterday, we're clearly besides ourselves with glee at the idea of completing the set.
(Smoke, however, just saw the headline, clicked on the clip below, and spit his coffee across the room, then fired off an email to the head people at NBX.com to make sure he really does have to go through with an interview with us when we win the season-long contest. Don't worry, Smoke. We're big fans. And we would not have the balls of Roger Clemens in our house, not that he's got any in the first place.)
Now, everybody sing!
