The Sixers - Heat Pick: Goddamn It

Reasons to pick the Sixers: Played one of their best games in the last contest. No longer in the realm of Oh Man You're Gonna Choke. Have played much better on the road than at home this year, so a lack of home court isn't deadly. James Harden will be rested and seems healthy. Tobias Harris is playing his best ball of the year. Tyrese Maxey has been electric. They match up well with Miami, and have beaten them without Joel Embiid this year. Paul Reed could surprise. Miami could sleep on a home game for long enough to let Maxey and Harden steal a game. They are playing with house money, especially with Embiid out.

Reasons to dodge the Sixers: They are going to give actual minutes that matter to Deandre Jordan. (Charles Barkley: "He's still alive?") Embiid will miss at least the first two games and when he does come back, will play with an orbital face mask, and that hasn't worked well for him in the past. (Plus, um, still, the thumb.) Reed won't avoid foul trouble. 

Reasons to pick the Heat: The Sixers won't have Embiid for at least the first two games. Repeat that a half dozen times. They'll force enough turnovers to make this series unwatchable for Sixers Fan, a lot. Bam Adebayo will dominate without Embiid around. Eric Spoelstra is a better coach than Doc Rivers, and it's not by a little. They have depth and confidence and the home court. They also are more rested.

Reasons to dodge the Heat: They aren't coming in totally healthy, either. The refs might decide to just say the hell with it, we hate everyone in this series with the puling, and mass suspensions could turn it into a what the hell is going on kind of series. This a #1 seed with a high floor and a low ceiling, and those kinds of #1 seeds tend to lose around this part of the playoffs.

The pick: Heat in six, just so the Sixers can give their fans one last reason to dread going to games. Embiid's injury gives everyone enough reason to want to run it back one more year, maybe without "He's Still Alive?" options at backup center, and a bench that has better options than Furkan "I Have No Idea Why This Guy Is Still In The NBA" Korkmaz. (And yes, I would have picked the Sixers until Embiid got hurt, and yes, I kind of blame Rivers for having him in a blowout.)