2017 Week 1 NFL Picks: Don't Get Hurt Out There
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| Sing It, Al |
Where you can make money is on teams that give you a strong feeling of confidence. These are the weeks where you should value your top 5 picks much more than your bottom ones, because until the public gets wind on the breakout team, you can make hay. But don't ride your initial reads past October, because a slow start frequently feeds on itself.
We're also going to throw you a fresh recommendation to check out the latest NFL predictions at Sports Betting Dime - Nice folks, good reads.
And with that... on to the picks!
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KANSAS CITY (+9) at New England
Andy Reid is a uniquely frustrating NFL coach, partly
because he just can't get it together with the same performance when he doesn't
have extra time to prepare. Make of that what you will. It won't be enough to
win the annual homecoming lack of drama game against the Patriots, but the
defense hanging in and a late suck-out cover, with a clock-killing drive that
has become the hallmark of Reid teams over the years? Sure, that can happen.
Patriots 31, Chiefs 24
New York Jets at BUFFALO (-8)
The scary thing for New York is that this might be one of
the more winnable games on their schedule. Buffalo will cover despite a rusty QB (Tyrod Taylor coming off a concussion protocol), because RB LeSean McCoy is going to have the last
good year of his career, mostly by destroying bad teams like the Jets. (The
fact that they traded away their best DL for a WR and picks means that even the
run defense is gonna stink.)
Bills 24, Jets 13
ATLANTA (-7) at Chicago
The Falcons on the road after the Super Bowl loss has grind
it out and look ugly and worrisome written all over it, but this Bears team
isn't good enough defensively to prevent a 30-burger even at half speed. It'll
be close for a lot longer than it would have been in 2017, but the Falcons
stretch it out and get the cover late.
Falcons 31, Bears 23
Jacksonville at HOUSTON (-5.5)
Emotional day for the Texans in Trying To Get Back To Normal
Houston, and it helps that they get the NFL's answer to a bye week to start.
Look for the Houston defense to dominate, and for fresh calls to end the Blake
Bortles Era when he can't even muster up points in garbage time.
Texans 24, Houston 16
PHILADELPHIA (-1) at Washington
If the Eagles are going to do anything in 2017, it's going
to require a hot start, because the schedule at the close of the year is
absolutely brutal. DC is suddenly bereft of WRs, and Philly isn't, which is a
very nice turn of events from last year. Look for QB Carson Wentz to get out to
a hot start, and for the defense to salt it away late, despite HC Doug
Pederson's best efforts to derp.
Eagles 24, Racial Slurs 20
Arizona at DETROIT (+1.5)
The Lions are secretly good this year -- the RBs are healthy
again, which helps loads -- and Arizona's offensive line is going to get aging
QB Carson Palmer out of the league. This one will get surprisingly out of hand
as a lot of folks soon remember how Arizona at 10am West Coast Time isn't a
great thing.
Lions 31, Cardinals 20
OAKLAND (-2) at Tennessee
Maybe the most interesting game of the 1pm docket, with the
defending AFC West champions on the road against an emerging Titans squad.
Neither team is much to write home about on defense, and both teams have
serious holes -- Oakland's STs are especially worrisome, with lots of
uncertainty about K Sebastian Janikowski -- but I like the road team to
continue last year's magic in close games.
Raiders 34, Titans 30
TAMPA (-2.5) at Miami - Postponed
This game isn't going to happen due to Hurricane Irma, so
the surprise NFC South team of 2017 will have to wait to punch around the
Dolphins, who don't have the CB strength to put up with Tampa's new weapons. It's also criminally irresponsible to not move this game to a neutral site and preserve the bye week for later, if only because you've set up your world to have no margin for error in the event of, you know, More Bad Stuff Happening To Florida. (Bad stuff happening to Florida? What are the odds?) Oh, and there's also the fact that no bye week for either of these teams significantly diminishes the possibility that either will have a good year. So enjoy your week, Florida.
(Would have been: Bucs 27, Dolphins 24)
Baltimore at CINCINNATI (-3)
The AFC North starts off with stereo division matchups this
year, and the pecking order in the division will get established early and
often. Neither team has enough of an offensive line to challenge real squads,
but the Bengal skill players are good enough to camouflage in certain
conditions, and this will be one of those. I'm also thinking that QB Joe Flacco
has three turnovers of rust on him, after an off-season of injury rehab.
Bengals 27, Ravens 17
PITTSBURGH (-8.5) at Cleveland
The Steelers are going to cover this number, because they
are healthy with their stars on offense and the Browns don't have enough real
DBs to stay in the frame, but it's not going to be a runaway. Cleveland will
move the ball and score some points, and Steeler Fan will wrinkle up their
faces at yet another year of The Defense Isn't Good Enough. But the cover will
happen late, because the Steeler offense is not above padding their stats.
Steelers 34, Browns 24
Indianapolis at LA RAMS (-3.5)
Indy has to try to win a road game against a good defense
with QB2 Scott Tolzien, and while he's not a terrible backup, he's still that
for reasons. Look for LA to make a couple of plays in the passing game, for RB
Todd Gurley to look like he's going to have a bounce-back year, and for LA
Football Fan to exist, at least for a little while.
Rams 23, Colts 17
SEATTLE (+3) at Green Bay
Best game of the week, and one that will have standing late
in the year. I like Seattle to get the early lead and nearly lose it late, with
QB Russell Wilson looking fit and fine, and the Seahawk defense coming up with
the killshot turnover to get out of town with the deuce. Besides, unless the
Pack gets off to a slow start, Aaron Rodgers can't save their fans from
freakout. This really should be the SNF game, but the NFL has traditions, or
some such.
Seahawks 31, Packers 30
CAROLINA (-5.5) at San Francisco
The final score will say that QB Cam Newton is back, that RB
Christian McCaffrey is the rookie of the year, and that the Niners are still
terrible. All of these things will be overstating the case for people who don't
watch the actual game in the trenches, but the final score can mislead.
Panthers 27, Niners 17
New York Giants at DALLAS (-4)
The line has moved a half point with the news that RB
Ezekiel Elliott will play as his suspension appeal continues, but honestly, his
inclusion just means that some of the final numbers will move around, but not
too much. New York has an odd history of doing well in this spot, but odd
histories have to end sometime, and the Giant defense just isn't that great.
Cowboys 31, Giants 24
New Orleans at MINNESOTA (-3.5)
Time for the annual Vikings and Sam Bradford are good
mirage, which will have a lot more to do with a Saints team that isn't good at
all, and is even worse on the road. Remember, MNF is usually terrible, and Week
1 MNF is especially so.
Vikings 27, Saints 16
Los Angeles Chargers at DENVER (-3.5)
Here comes the Angry Game for the Broncos, who will have a
full week to hear about how they can't be any good with their off-season cost-cutting
moves and QB situation that's so bad, they brought back Brock Osweiler.
Remember, MNF is usually terrible, and the late game is especially so.
Broncos 24, Chargers 14
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Career: 881-889-54
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