Friday, November 26, 2010

Part 2 Week 12 NFL Picks: I'm As Scared As You Are

Continuing the theme of Think Less and Win More, I'm now 15-3-1 for my last 19 picks against the spread, which is awfully helpful, giving that taking the kids on vacation this week was only slightly less expensive than joining a big cash poker game with guys who can see your hole cards. Now, if only gambling were legal, or something.

Anyway, I'm still on quasi-vacation, so the picks will be a little less verbose, and hopefully a little more useful, than usual. And with that, on to the picks!

* * * * *

Green Bay at ATLANTA (-1)

I like both clubs, but the Pack does have problems with teams that run the ball well, and Falcons QB Matt Ryan just doesn't lose at home. After last week's slapping of the Vikings, this looks like a letdown week for the Pack.

Falcons 27, Packers 20

PITTSBURGH at Buffalo (+5)

Not sure what's going on here; the Steelers showed they can crush an outclassed opponent like the Raiders last week, and the Bills already have their win for the year. Despite the beat up Steeler offensive line, this is an easy cover. Hell, the Steeler defense might take of the spread by themselves.

Steelers 24. Bills 10

Carolina at CLEVELAND (NL)

The Browns might suffer for a lack of QB Colt McCocy, but it's not like the Panthers are still trying, or healthy, or competent. Look for a lot of RB Peyton Hillis here.

Browns 20, Panthers 6

JACKSONVILLE (+9) at NY Giants

Are the Giants a paper tiger team that's engaged in an annual swan dive that would usually result in the coach or QB getting run, only to be forever spared by the 18 And One Very Big One takedown of the Patriots? It's pretty to think so, especially against the startlingly above .500 Jags... but in all likelihood, they win this one. But maybe not cover.

Giants 27, Jags 20

MINNESOTA at Washington (-3)

Are the Vikings really going to spring to life just to show up ex-coach Brad Childress? Well, maybe, and the Skins aren't exactly good either. I still think that DC United could win this, just because they need to jerk their fanbase around some more, but a cover might be asking too much.

Redskins 21, Vikings 20

Tennessee at HOUSTON (NL)

Two teams that have to be hating their coach right now, so give me the home team with the better offensive weapons. Oh, and with the actual NFL starting caliber QB.

Texans 24, Titans 20

Miami at OAKLAND (NL)

Bounce back game for the Raiders, who weren't as good as they looked in their run-up to the AFC West lead, nor as bad as they looked in last week's de-pantsing against the Steelers. The Dolphins aren't the Steelers, though they have been a good road team this year. It'll be close, but go Black.

Raiders 27, Dolphins 24

KANSAS CITY at Seattle (+1)

Just not buying the usual Seahawk home field advantage here, especially with TE Tony Moeaki back and the Chiefs' running game hitting on all cylinders. Besides, the Chiefs can play defense.

Chiefs 24, Seahawks 17

PHILADELPHIA at Chicago (+3.5)

I'll actually be at this game, which means the Eagles are well and truly cursed. But beyond supernatural effects, Bears QB Jay Cutler is the living embodiment of a QB who fails against a complex, pressure-based defense. It'll be close until Cutler really craps the bed late.

Eagles 27, Bears 16

ST. LOUIS at Denver (-5)

Give me the Rams on the road here, not that anyone should think they can predict the Broncos, for no other reason than the Rams are still playing for something.

Rams 24, Broncos 20

TAMPA BAY at Baltimore (-6)

Just not feeling the love for a Ravens team that has struggled in the secondary, especially against a spunky Bucs team that may have found the answer to their power running game. It'll be a dogfight, if not a full upset.

Ravens 27, Bucs 24

San Diego at INDIANAPOLIS (-3)

Just can't see the Colts struggling for a full month, even against laundry that normally slaps them down, since the Chargers are a little beat up as well, and even when healthy, don't emply real shutdown CB play anymore.

Colts 31, Chargers 24

San Francisco at ARIZONA (+2.5)

Hoo boy, ESPN really got a turd here. I'll just go with the home team and try not to watch. Won't be hard.

Cardinals 20, Niners 16

This week (so far): 3-0

Year to date: 75-76-1

Lifetime: 355-353-24

1 comment:

snd_dsgnr said...

As a Giants fan, I just hope the Eagles don't have a letdown game this week. They're the team to beat in the division, I don't think the game last Sunday should have been as close as it was, and congrats on all that. But the Bears and Bucs need to stop getting cheap wins that could end up nabbing them a wild card over the Giants.

Probably nothing to be done about the Bucs at this point, they could end up 10-6 with 0 wins over teams with winning records, but the Bears can still be stopped.

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