NFL Week 10: The Midseason Grind
One complaint that you hear about other sports, but never hear about the NFL, is that the season is too long. Despite the fact that 82 games in basketball and 162 games in baseball have been around for decades, people still feel compelled to complain, and assert that it's meaningless.
This is, of course, hogwash: the regular season is frequently the better indicator of a team's quality than the postseason, since the sample size is bigger and less prone to flukes. It's also how you get paid, if you are the player. You might get a premium on your contract for being known as a clutch player, but if you aren't good in the regular season, you will never get the opportunity in the playoffs.
No, the big problem is a simple matter of mathematics. In the NBA, over half of the league's teams make the playoffs, so it just doesn't seem that meaningful. In MLB, it's 8 out of 30, but with the salary inequities, there's usually 6 to 10 teams that start the year without a great deal of hope, and in the American League, with the gross salary inequities, it's more or less a 50-50 guess as to who will make it.
What makes the NFL special is that making the playoffs really is an accomplishment. Even the best organizations miss from time to time, and even the worst threaten to make it occasionally. And since it's the only league that awards the huge advantage of a first round bye to its top teams, it is very rare for a team to coast into the playoffs.
There is also this... in other sports, a great regular season team can actually stay in the the memory longer than a playoff flash in the pan. What is more memorable to you; the record setting Mariner team that didn't win the World Series, or the Marlin and Cardinal teams that did? In football, a great regular season team that loses in the playoffs is either mocked or forgotten or both, and here's the proof: Chicago Bears QB Jim Miller, leader of the 13-3 team that lost in the first round. If you remember the year without doing a Web search, you're probably a Bears fan.)
In other sports, you get the occasional sense of a team that is just happy to have made it this far. In the NFL, where a franchise can be sidetracked on a single catastrophic injury play, this isn't true, even of the first-time playoff participants. Every team, really, is in the boat of Win Now Or Else.
So even in Week 10 or a 17-week season that, to be charitable, hasn't been the most compelling, you don't hear about fan fatigue, and never will. The schedule may say it's the middle of the season, but every NFL fan knows this weekend's games are incredibly crucial. Just like next week's.
Now, on to the picks!
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PITTSBURGH covering 9.5 over Cleveland. A big number to cover for a team that played on Monday night, then gets a division rival that's been on a roll... but the Browns just don't match up well with this Steelers team, especially on the game after Willie Parker wasn't able to get started in the mud. Count on the Steelers scoring a lot of points here, and the Browns not being able to match serve.
Minnesota as the 5.5 point underdog in GREEN BAY. The 7-1 (really) Packers come back home after a fantastic road swing through Denver and Kansas City to face Purple Jesus, fresh off a 296-yard effort against the Chargers. AP won't do as much in this game, but neither will Brett Favre. I expect this to be a tight division slugfest, and while the Pack may win. they won't cover. Big ups to the Vikes for signing Koy Detmer, who I was worrying about, especially now that the weather in the East has turned cold. The streets get mean.
Philadelphia as a 3 point underdog in WASHINGTON. Last call time for the Eagles, who looked as bad as they ever have in the Reid Era against a rested Cowboys team on SNF last week. For the Skins, Jason Campbell hasn't looked very good recently, mostly because his WRs and OL has been hurt and/or James Thrash. I'm looking for a pride bounce-back game, as well as an echo of past glory. The Skins are the team that Donovan McNabb has tortured more than any other in the division, especially with his mobility, and Don's actually made a play or two with his feet in the last month.
TENNESSEE in a pick'em against Jacksonville. Two teams that do it with mirrors, so let's go with the home team with the better defense, and the QB that doesn't panic when his numbers are just awful. The Jags may be getting back David Garrard for this game, which would help, but it's not like he's a world-beater, either, and the Titans have just had a way of winning the close ones. If you see a game with worse WRs, you're watching college ball. Probably Division II.
Atlanta covering 4 on the road in CAROLINA. The Falcons got a little bit well last week at home against the putrid Niners, and now they go on the road against Mystery QB and the Panthers. Will it be David Carr or Vinny Testaverde under center for Carolina... and if you a Carolina fan, aren't you a little freaked out that if you start the oldest QB ever, you're less likely to take sacks all day? At some point, I think someone is going to discover that Carr just really enjoys pain, and will hold the ball on pass plays until he gets it.
KANSAS CITY in a pick'em against Denver. Not sure why this Denver team, who got absolutely obliterated on the road last week against Detroit, should be seen as better than the Chiefs -- and when Vegas doesn't give the home team at least a 3-point edge, that's a sign that they think they are better. The Chiefs have been frisky moving the ball, and while they will miss Larry Johnson, I think that a fresh Priest Holmes has a good week or two in him before are and injury kick in.
Buffalo covering 3 against MIAMI. If not now, then when for the winless Dolphins, who come off destroying the future of NFL football in England with that travesty of a game against the Giants... but this Bills team may be better than you think, especially with Marshawn Lynch making his bid to be considered the best rookie RB that isn't named Purple Jesus. The Miami defense has been an even bigger disappointment than the Miami offense, and Losman to Evans will strike a few more times. Besides, we're going to need an above .500 Bills team to give the Patriot Juggernaut its first big division test in a few weeks.
St. Louis as an 11.5 point dog in NEW ORLEANS. The world wants to say the Saints are back at 4-4 after an 0-4 start, and with Drew Brees and the defense both picking it up big time, I'm not saying they are wrong... but that just seems like too many points against a team that (a) gets Stephen Jackson back, (b) is coming off a bye, and (c) has won three straight in this series at this location, and (d) has a QB in Marc Bulger that's showing signs of life. I think the Saints win in a shootout here, but the Rams will cover, and when the Saints DBs are involved, maybe they could even pull off the upset.
Cincinnati as a 4 point dog in BALTIMORE, in a battle between two of the most disappointing teams in the NFL. The Ravens secondary got exposed in Pittsburgh last week, and the Bengals got thugged around by the Bills. Which team still cares? The Ravens should, since they are still .500. But with terrible QB play from McNair and Boller and the league's most overrated RB in Willis McGahee, it's hard to see how they're going to win, even against the gutless two and six Bengals. At the end of the day, I'm taking the visitors, just because I think Chad Johnson will play and inspire. Plus, there's this: while the Bengals D is far from good, they are occasionally opportunistic.
Chicago covering 3.5 in OAKLAND. Once more with the bye week magic against a Raiders team that just can't (a) stop the run, or (b) avoid turnovers. This may be Cedric Benson's last and best chance to convince his employers that he's still a #1 RB, and if you find yourself watching this game, don't sleep on the Raider punts. Shane Lechler may be too good to be scared of Devin Hester, which means that Shane Lechler may soon regret not being scared of Devin Hester.
Dallas covering 1.5 points on the road against the GIANTS. Showdown game at the top of the NFC East, and while the Giants have the home field, are coming off a bye and have a nice gaudy win streak, I just can't shake the feeling that they still are not for real. This game will live or die on Tony Romo's ability to make plays outside of the pocket, because the Giants will get initial pressure on him. And in the final clincher, there's Eli Manning's troublesome past in big games.
ARIZONA covering 1 against Detroit. Despite being 6-2 (yes, the Detroit Lions are 6-2 -- no, I don't believe it either), these Lions are anything goes on the road, and you don't get more of a road team culture shock than playing here. Jon Kitna hasn't been picked for three whole games, which means he's so due now... and I think Kurt Warner is going to start feeling better against that secondary. Edge James should also be in line for a big game.
Indianapolis cover 3.5 against SAN DIEGO. Two good teams coming off two disappointing losses, and it's just one of those games where the presence of Norv is really all I need to see. The Chargers defense may also be permanently scarred by what Purple Jesus did to them last week, and the Colts are good enough against the run now to make someone other than Tomlinson beat them.
SEATTLE covering 10 against San Francisco. Lost in the frustrations of a .500 record against a cupcake schedule, Matt Hasselbeck has been very strong and consistent, and he got back DJ Hackett last week. The Hawks won't need much more than that against a Niners team that hasn't won in two months, and looks for all the world to have flat-out quit.
Last week: 10-4 (18-9 the last two weeks -- woo hoo!)
Overall: 58-64-8
