Week Seven NFL Picks: The Best Week Ever

Since the last time I wrote a picks column, the Philles won the NLCS, the Ealges won in San Francisco, Dallas, Washington and New York all lost... Pac Man Jones was suspended, Tony Romo and Felix Jones got hurt, and Wall Street lost 5 billion points. Proof positive that when Philly Fan is happy, we're all doomed.

I'd say more about this, but given that the world is about to end, we're just going to cut to the chase. I've got a 2 o'clock with the Whore of Babylon (she works in midtown). My picks are in CAPS.

Dallas at ST. LOUIS (+10.5)

I suspect this line is continually shrinking, given how the Cowboys keep shedding starters. They come off a devastating loss in Arizona, while the Rams broke into the win category on the road in Washington. So why is the line so large? Because the Rams won on a defensive touchdown and a pass interference call, and they are, well, horrible. But given that the Rams will be facing a team with pure rookies at the corners, no Felix Jones to stretch the field with the running game, some unknown punter, a fresh sideshow in Roy Williams at wideout, and -- most importantly -- a quarterback (Brad Johnson) who can't go deep or avoid the rush... well, I don't think it's outside of the realm of possibility that the home team pulls the upset.

At the very least, they'll make the cover.

Cowboys 24, Rams 20

Baltimore at MIAMI (-2.5)

My, my, my... Joe Flacco's certainly fell to earth, hasn't he? Almost as if I've predicted it. (Let me try to re-set my shoulder from the back patting there.) This week, he goes to Miami to face a frisky Dolphins team that spit the bit late on the road against the Texans. If the Ravens are going to make a run at the NFC North, they need to get it done this week... but I don't think they are going to. It'll be ugly on both sides.

Dolphins 20, Ravens 13

San Francisco at GIANTS (NL)

Here's my favorite new theory on why West Coast teams stink on ice in road games on the East Coast -- their bodies are trying to play football at 10am, and they just can't adjust. Um, what? I get that it's not optimal, but if this is the case, why not just stay on the East Coast longer, practice here, and try to prevent that from having any kind of impact?

Right. Because it's horse flop.

Look, the reason why West Coast teams stink when they come East is that most of them aren't very good right now. When the division was good -- you know, when the Niners dominated the NFC West, or the Raiders stomped people -- the air flights were harder. And yet, they still pretty much stomped people on the road. The reason why was that they were good. Really good.

Unlike, say, this Niners team, who can't protect the quarterback, and can't play 60 minutes with quick screens and draws to avoid the rush. Luckily for them, the Giants don't get enough push on the quarterback anymore (see last Monday in Cleveland). But on the road in New Jersey, and with the early start time (hah! I kill me), they aren't getting it done.

Giants 31, Niners 20

NEW ORLEANS at Carolina (-3)

Can someone please explain the NFC South to me? Carolina crushes Atlanta at home, then gets crushed by the Bucs on the road. Atlanta is supposed to be the worst team in the division, and yet they probably have the best wins (in Green Bay, against Chicago at home). Tampa doesn't seem like they can score over 20 points unless the defense scores. And then there's the Saints, who move the ball like mad, seem to get some push at times on defense, and look like the most entertaining 8-8 team ever.

Well, I'm getting sucked into the road team again, but honestly, this is a coin flip. I'm just going with the Saints because when Jake Delhomme is bad, he's really, really bad.

Saints 31, Panthers 27

SAN DIEGO at Buffalo (NL)

The Chargers come off a going-away win against the suddenly pathetic Patriots, while the Bills were on the bye. If you believe the hype, this is one of those dreaded West Coast Team on a 1pm game death moments, and the Bills are ready to solidify their hold on the AFC East. I'm just not buying the idea that this Bills team has the horses to keep up with a team that can score a lot of points, and this year, that's the Chargers.

Chargers 27, Bills 21

Minnesota at CHICAGO (-3)

I'm surprised by this line, really. The Bears lost a game they should have won in Atlanta, while the Vikings had to sweat out a win over the utterly awful Lions at home. In this game, I think Gus Frerotte makes more mistakes than Kyle Orton, and while Adrian Peterson will have more yards than Matt Forte, the quarterback mistakes are more meaningful. Watch out as well for Devin Hester in this game, since Brad Childress seems to like to kick to game-breaking return men.

Bears 24, Vikings 16

PITTSBURGH at Cincinnati (NL)

I don't much care what the line is for this game, so long as Ryan Fitzpatrick is quarterbacking the Bengals. Lo, is he awful. The Steelers also are off a bye, get Willie Parker back from injury, and have the corners to take away the Bengal wideouts. Look for the Steelers to force turnovers and win in a runaway.

Steelers 38, Bengals 17

TENNESSEE at Kansas City (+7)

Here's what this line means: someone in Vegas thinks the Chiefs will score. I don't share their enthusiasm. The Chiefs are coming off a bye, but it won't be enough. Look for the Titans to keep Larry Johnson under 40 yards, and spend most of the day falling over themselves trying to score defensive touchdowns.

Titans 20, Chiefs 9

Detroit at HOUSTON (NL)

The line I've heard here is in the 8 to 10 point range, which is kind of amazing, given that the teams will combine for 1 win all year. Houston got it last week, with a bit of a miracle job against the Dolphins. With Dan "Running Out Of My End Zone In Pants Wetting Fear" Orlovsky at the controls, this will be the one week this year that you'll be interest in playing the Texans defense in fantasy. This is also the only late game for Fox all day. Bet they put a bunch of cameras on Calvin Johnson, just to see when he quits in abject frustration? (You're also really going to like Steve Slaton in this game.)

Texans 34, Lions 17

NY JETS at Oakland (+3)

The corollary of the earlier cross-country is the Jets going west to Oakland, where they get to face the eternal mystery that is Oakland. The home team can run the ball, and the Jets' secondary isn't good; there will be openings downfield for JeMarcus Russell to find. A shame that he doesn't have the wideouts to get there, or the accuracy to find them... or, well, a coach that can give them any chance late. The Favre legend continues, and Packer Fan will start melting down over the Rodgers-Favre decision any minute now...

Jets 26, Raiders 21

Cleveland at WASHINGTON (NL)

Gee, the Browns can look good when they throw deep and utterly dominate the line of scrimmage! This week, they go to Washington, who have to be smarting over that home loss to the Rams. Both teams desperately need the game, but you get the feeling that the home team is just better coached (seriously, how do the Browns have a dozen false start penalties at home?). I also think that, unlike the Giants, the Redskins will be smart enough to just run the ball and win.

Redskins 23, Browns 17

INDIANAPOLIS at Green Bay (pick'em)

Rut roh, the Colts are back! I'm not sure why this is a pick'em game, given that just a few weeks ago, the Packers lost to the Falcons at home.. and well, Peyton Manning is a lot better than Matt Ryan. For the Packers, they're going to hope that the Colts don't bring their run defense, and that Ryan Grant can finally be productive, rather than just persistent. I'm not getting my hopes up.

Colts 31, Packers 20

Seattle at TAMPA BAY (NL)

Perhaps the worst Sunday Night Football game you will ever see - seriously, NBC, you do know that the Seabags are terrible on the road, wounded and trying to put Mike Holmgren on an ice flow ASAP? The Bucs come off a smackdown of the Panthers, and will do more of the same against a Seahawks team that won't get more than 250 yards in this game. That includes garbage time. They'll also give their offense a short field repeatedly.

Bucs 30, Seahawks 13

DENVER at New England (-3.5)

The weekend in bad evening games continues in New England, as two dramatically flawed teams fight for a big prize. Normally in games like these, you can count on the Pats for a bounce-back game after a bad loss... but that was a night game as well, and the Broncos are a coverage nightmare, especially if Eddie Royal can go. There's also this: Matt Cassel has officially entered the realm of unownable fantasy quarterback, which also makes him worrisome in any gambling situation.

Denver 24, New England 21


Last Week: 8-6

Year to date: 47-39-2