Sixers-Raptors: The Pick

 Reasons why Philly will win: Home court matters in the playoffs, especially when two of those guys get to the foul line constantly. Toronto has no one who can contain Joel Embiid. James Harden has had a week off, and he's been remarkably better this year coming off extended rest. Danny Green has played his best ball of the year in the past couple of weeks. Tyrese Maxey is going to win a game or two by himself. Tobias Harris doesn't have to do much. Paul Reed gives them an energetic big man that actually makes hustle plays. Shake Milton is showing signs of health and utility. 

Reasons why Philly will lose: Doc Rivers. Doc Rivers will play Deandre Jordan instead of Paul Reed. Doc Rivers will play bench guys with a lead, they'll lose the lead, and then they will panic. Tobias Harris will try too much and do too little. Embiid will miss time with some random injury. They'll give up transition points to the point of pain. Chris Boucher will have a game, Pascal Siakam will have one, Fred van Vliet another and then we're in Doc Rivers in Game 7, which is always death. Matisse Thybulle's asshat vaccination lapse will cost them a road game. As the nominal favorite with the biggest stars, has way more to lose from a first round exit.

Reasons why Toronto will win: Just waves of athleticism that's well-coached. Possibly the biggest home court advantage in the NBA, because Toronto Fan is never mean to the home team. Secretly not a 5 seed, because they've been beaten up all year and aren't now. Van Vliet will own Harden, because he's a lot younger and has limitless range. OG Anubuoy is an all-around beast. Comes into this with no real championship aspirations, which means loose and easy. Some of these guys have won rings. Nick Nurse may be the best coach in the NBA.

Reasons why Toronto will lose: No bigs with heft, which means constant gadget defenses on Embiid that will eventually fail, with massive fouling. Guys that have been hurt all year will get hurt again. Playoff basketball is halfcourt basketball, which does not help this offense at all. Gary Trent has no conscience and will take enough bad shots to cost them a game. Does not have the two best players on the floor, which is not a recipe for playoff success. 

The pick: Sixers in six, because I just think that Embiid wants vengeance for the Kawhi Leonard Series and will get it. Besides, at some point the entire Sixers team will rise up, stuff Rivers in a box and mail him to Los Angeles with Jordan, and play Reed. As bad as Rivers is as a coach, he's got the best players, and that matters. (But only if a rested Harden is one that's able to score on his own, rather than just set up teammates.)