Eagles - Falcons Notes

> Coming into this game, it was billed as the return of Michael Vick... and that billing seemed silly at best, given how Vick has been nothing more than a sideshow for the laundry this year. Today, he was still a sideshow, but when you crush a team this badly, the sideshows are everything.

> Jeremy Maclin actually had a strong punt return in the first quarter, the first time this year that he's done that well. Of course, he then hobbled off at the end of the play. It's never easy with this franchise, and they'll need health (and luck) if they are going to win a playoff game or two.

> Falcon Fan gave an extremely varied reaction to Vick as he came on the field, almost as if the crowd had been juiced. If it were my laundry, he'd have gotten nothing but the boos; it's not as if the memories were all good even on the field, and the off the field stuff is unprecedented for its destructiveness.

> The previously cursed Reggie Brown, who has been nothing but a puzzle as to why he's still on the roster, had a drop that would have gotten a first down in the red zone... and then he makes a great catch on a third and fifteen for another red zone first down. I'd still rather have Hank Baskett.

> Just as I was about to bitch about weak tackling from the kickoff coverage units, they pick up a fumble. This also leads to Tony Siragusa discussing the best technique for carrying the ball, seeing how he did that so much in his career.

> On a third and ten, Macho Harris and Tony Gonzalez got tangled up, leading to a defensive PI and first down. I'm not saying that Harris felt guilty about the play, but he was protesting the call before the flag came. The drive ended on two negative runs and a deflected pass, and the defense looked like it had some swagger.

> You can watch a lot of football before you see a 59-yard slant to a fullback, with a one handed catch to boot. Wow, Leonard Weaver, wow. It's also kind of astounding that on a team with DeSean Jackson, that is Don's longest pass of the year.

> Akers, with the Fox heads going hard about his streak, missed from 38, also snapping the Eagles streak of scoring in the red zone. I think Fox just spooged from breaking both streaks, really.

> McNabb missed on a couple of open wideouts (Jason Avant, then Maclin), stopping a drive that changed field position... and also ended with Jason Peters limping off. The man's got to stop going that, really. It's not a good habit.

> Second drive of the day stopped on a deflected ball by the defense, and it's not an overstatement to say that the first twenty minutes of this game were defined by the Eagles defensive line. Good times.

> Some reasonable work on TE Tony Gonzalez, other than a couple of fourth down conversions. Kudos to Harris, who looks like the first guy to play the position in years who seems to want to cover the TE.

> What, exactly, should S Quinten Demps do on a blitz on Chris Redman when he gets there half a second after the ball is released? He's shorter than the QB. He's got to get his hands up to try to deflect the ball. So how, really, does he avoid the "head to head" penalty call? Should he just stop running if it's not absolutely certain that he's going to get there? Seriously, at some point we need to just put flags on people, take off the helmets, and call it a day. (And on the very next play, S Sean Jones gets a "defenseless receiver" penalty for daring to hit a man in the air in the end zone. Had the WR pulled in the ball, he'd be making the play he has to make, but I suppose Jones should know what will happen two seconds before it happens.)

I get that player safety is important, and everyone is worried about concussions. But is this still football?

> Atlanta coach Mike Smith makes a You Crap appearance to end the half by testing a dominating defensive line, and I'll say no more about it here... other than, well, thanks, Mike. Much obliged!

> I liked the Weaver signing in the off-season, but man, I'm loving it now. Then again, I don't have LeSean McCoy on my roto team.

> On fourth and 1 from the Falcons 45, RB Eldra Buckley makes it on second effort, and that's a big play to keep the drive alive. I kind of hate the stone cold back being your short yardage guy, though.

> A third and one from the five brings in Vick again, and he gets his first touchdown of the season on an inside run with pretty fantastic blocking from the interior of the line. Vick bobbled the ball before turning it upfield, and that probably helped, since it gave the line a little more time to smack heads. What's more telling than the run, really, was the sideline reaction from his teammates, who reacted as if Vick just cured cancer. I doubt he's more than a one year rental here, but there's no doubt that he's a part of this team. 20-0 Eagles.

> On a third and 9, Redman made a play to convert, and for the second time today, Demps was nicked for a marginal 15 yard call. In general, you don't do well with a defense that is rarely penalized; it speaks to a team that isn't athletic or aggressive. But it also doesn't help to give up yards, and the lack of an obvious grounding call on a 3rd and 2 also rankles, especially when the subsequent fourth down is converted on a throw to Gonzalez.

> On the third fourth down attempt of the game, this one a fourth and five from the Eagles 23, Redman threw a terrible TAInt to CB Sheldon Brown, and that's about as easy a defensive touchdown as you will see at this level. Night night, Falcons; it's 27-0 Green. And on some level, it's really not even that close.

> The next Falcons' drive ended on a Jones pick of a wounded duck due to QB pressure, and if Reid really wanted to rub it in now, he'd have Vick play the rest of the game. The defense has got this one well in hand... and so he does, to the chants of the crowd. The ex-Falcon connected with Brown on a 44-yarder that was actually behind the play, but what the hey, it's fun time for everyone but McNabb's fantasy owners. Which would be me. The drive caps off with a throwback screen to Celek, and this would be piling on if it weren't for the old team circumstances. 34-0 Green.

> The last quarter is thrilling if you are an Eldra Buckley fan, enjoy listening to Fox heads talk about other games, or like seeing the best punt of Sav Rocca's life -- a truly clutch shot that was downed at the one. Atlanta scored on the last play of the game on a tipped ball, and I suppose that mattered to some fantasy honk, but no one else.

I spent the time hating fantasy football, where I needed a win in two head to head leagues, and stupidly left Santonio Holmes on my bench, because clearly the Steelers were just going to run the ball all game, and The Asomugha Effect would stop any big #1 WR shenanigans. Just. Kill. Me.

As for the laundry, they move to 8-4, have the lead in the wild-card race, and could be tied for first in the division if the Giants beat the Cowboys in the late game. They've had worse days, really. And so has Vick.

The FTT Book Review: The Book of Basketball

A few points about the NBA and Sixers fandom before we get into the guts of Bill Simmons' new book. (My apologies, as always, to the site's readers who dread the coming of Association coverage, but this is a three sport blog, and it's not like you've had to scroll past this stuff for a good long while, really.)

1) Despite the presence of an effective salary cap, the Association has the smallest amount of competitive balance.

If you grow up as a Lakers or Celtics fan, you feel as if the rest of the league is simply there to provide a dance partner for your team. That's why the rest of the league hates you and dreams of your failure, only other teams keep giving you their franchise players for 40 cents on the dollar. And unlike football, where nearly every team's fan base has a treasured set of seasons to look back on, that doesn't really happen here; the finest moments in, say, the history of Atlanta basketball or Cleveland basketball or Dallas or a dozen other teams doesn't hold a candle to individual seasons for the plus markets.

2) Fluke years, in which a "Blue Snow" team makes a run at a championship, almost never happen.

This is a key reason why college basketball is beloved, while pro basketball (unless you are a fan of the act itself, or grew up in Privileged Laundry) is endured. No team wins a series in the NBA on pure luck, a hot goalie or starting pitcher, a handful of turnovers or a series of lucky bounces, especially now that every series is a best of seven. When a team upsets another team, it's almost always a collapse moment on the part of the favorites (witness Dallas suddenly growing old and exploitable against the Warriors and never being a real threat again, or how the Mutumbo Nuggets upset a Seattle team that was well on their way to tuning Furious George Karl out for good). There is no basketball equivalent to the '93 Phillies; even the AI 2001 Sixers team that many now regard as a fluke built up to that with multiple playoff years.

3) Plus markets have the greatest advantage of any major sport.

Since basketball players are advertising gold, the Boston - New York - LA - Chicago axis puts the potential of an extra eight figure annual payday in the hands of star players. Add in the sheer fun of movie star tail and living with other members of the cultural elite means that, unlike football, you aren't generally going to get world-class players staying for their entire career in just so towns.

4) It has, by a very wide margin, the most suspect officiating.

Independent of The Tim Donaghy Experience, NBA officiating is just a nightmare. Unlike football and baseball, where knowledgeable fans can identify penalties while they are happening, there are any number of fouls that seem to depend on the game, opponent, and relative star power of the player involved. It makes it easy -- way too easy -- to draw conspiracy theories, and in the case of Donaghy, those conspiracy theories were proven correct.

You can't overstate how much this hurts the league in the eyes of non-fans. To many detractors, the only difference between the NBA and the WWE is that one is more over the top. And they aren't exactly sure which.

5) The way a team plays is nearly as important as its success on the court.

Teams that play boring ball, whether it is successful or not, don't sell as much merch, don't fill the stands on the road, don't attract premium free agents and don't appear on national television. Every year, Golden State intrigues because they play up tempo, and Phoenix thrills the cognoscenti and sells out on the road. Meanwhile, San Antonio just pounds them into mulch, and people take the best power forward in league history for granted.

That's just the way it is. We are not just watching these games to see who wins. It also has to look good.

6) Individual players have the highest amount of impact and visibility of any sport.

They don't wear helmets, the best players are the floor for over 90% of the action, and everyone has to play offense and defense. Specialization exists, but it's minor compared to other sports.

So every star player has more impact on the game than a starting pitcher or quarterback, to the extent that if a single player has a good enough game, his team wins. That's another reason why NBA players are more like thoroughbreds than regular athletes.

Keeping all that in mind... for the past week, I've chewed through the Bad Tooth's latest book, a 700-page opus called "The Book of Basketball." Despite the heft, the book is a fairly quick and worthwhile read, if for no other reason that Simmons has done the research, and clearly has a love for what he's writing. If you are a fan of the Association or the Bad Tooth's writing, it's worth the plunge, and since the book recently reached #1 on the NYTimes best seller list, it's clearly made its mark.

And if you are like me, by the time you are done with it, it's something of a relief. And you'll find yourself less interested, not more, in watching hoop. Here's why.

1) All or nothing prosecutions.

Simmons is like a pit bull with a bone when it comes to proving his point, especially when the other side is clearly something that's getting under his skin (aka, Not A Celtics Fan). This leads to the longest sustained attack on the character and effectiveness of Wilt Chamberlain ever, along with similar denigrations of the careers of players like Kobe Bryant, Karl Malone and Oscar Robertson, among others.

I realize this is in no way surprising, but it just rankles. You can make your point without leaving the other side a smoking ruin, or failing that, you can be consistent after laying waste. Which leads to the next point...

2) Inconsistent reasoning.

In the Wilt vs. Russell chapter, Simmons takes Wilt to task for the high number of field goal attempt and inability to involve his teammates, and given the man's relative lack of championship rings, it's a fair point... except for the otherworldly shooting percentages, which get short shrift. Hundreds of pages later, in the description of some other superstar who shot much more than his teammates (I think it might have been George Gervin), Simmons... *defends* the star in question for shooting more than his teammates, because, well, look at the shooting percentages. Who else should be taking those shots?

There's also just the stunning turnaround between the Wilt/Russell barrage and his final ranking of the Stilt. After basically making it sound like Chamberlain is the most overrated player in the history of the world, and a man who should have been incarcerated rather than allowed to play basketball, Simmons ranks him as... the sixth best player in the history of the game. Have the courage of your convictions, sir. Rank him below Kevin McHale, Dave Cowens, John Havlicek, Sam Jones, Bob Cousy and all of those other, far more winning, people. Or would that be leaving some cake on the table?

Similar maddening moments happen on the relative merits of durability (Simmons is a fan of it for ranking Magic over, gasp, Larry Bird... then forgets all about it when it's time to fellate Bill Walton), statistical inflation (Robertson's triple double is fishy due to the era, but not Russell's rebounding and theoretical blocked shots), and the modern need to assert that the current era is the best (unless it's time to serenade, yet again, just how awesome the '80s were). It's wearisome. Very wearisome.

3) Formula shtick.

You will, I am sure, be thrilled to know that TBOB has involved and convoluted analogies to "Teen Wolf", "Rocky", MTV shows featuring women that are young enough to be Simmons' children, popular music, and every other crutch that the Bad Tooth has padded the bloghole with for the past decade. I will now set this sentence on fire. Waka waka!

4) Cloying asides.

Hey, did you know that 700 pages makes for a long book? Simmons feels obliged to remind you about it on a half dozen occasions. Or that, in describing the Willis Reed injury, you need to stand and touch a specific ligament, and that if you aren't standing and doing this, you are pissing Billy off, and that he doesn't ask for much. Spending time with this book is like spending time with the Cliff Claven of basketball, only if Claven actually knew enough about his subject that you couldn't stop listening to him.

I have small children, and they are at the age when new accomplishments have to be witnessed and validated by a parent. This also involves, say, potty training. Simmy Boy has, it would seem, never really gotten past that stage.

5) Rampant egotism.

I know, I know, pot kettle black. But every time that Simmy Boy plays the "Boston fans suffered more from bad basketball, because we know what we've lost" card, I am reminded why Boston Fan has become the most hated fan base in America in the last decade. Take this to its logical end, and you'll have why rich people should never be poor, pretty people should never age, and a whole host of things to say about blacks and women that are best left on the cutting room floor.

So when you finish this book -- and you will finish it, because Simmons brings just enough research, interesting anecdotes and trenchant analysis to keep you moving forward, and after a while, you just want to be able to stop carrying the damn brick -- you might have the following reaction; you no longer want to watch hoop. As mentioned before. And here's why.

1) Because any league where only two franchises really matter isn't worth the time.

2) Because the Hall of Fame is an absolute speed bump, and probably isn't getting any better. On this, I completely agree with the writer.

3) Because good small players almost always come up short in the playoffs against good big players.

4) Because the Association doesn't really change that much from year to year, and there's rarely any interesting upsets.

5) And, finally, because Simmons like the league so much, and being anything like him just makes your skin crawl.

So, um, go read it, I guess. Or make me an offer for my copy; most of the abuse that happened while reading it involved the book being kept a safe distance from harm, because hurting books just seems wrong on many levels. And don't worry, I'm sure that having the #1 book on the New York Times best seller list will do nothing but good things to help rein in his bad tendencies, or his maddening biases...

76% thrilled

According to the voting feature on the NBC site, that's the percentage of locals who are thrilled at the news. Mighty nice coincidence, really.

Haters will, of course, think he's shedding crocodile tears, and mock him for showing any emotion at all... but why hate, really? You've got a guy who is said to be a bad influence. So why do fellow players sing his praises? You've got a guy who is said to be be a full-on casino creature and carouser. So why is he still married, even after the domestic situation of a few years ago? You've got a guy who is said to be only concerned about his own numbers. So why does he take more punishment than any short guard in the history of the game, and make his living drawing fouls?

Finally, you've got a guy that the purists can't stand, who is going to retard the development of young talent, who is just a sideshow. Fine. And how much of the Sixers have you watched this year without him? And will you watch on Monday night when he comes back, and would you be surprised if he tears the Nuggets a new one and leads the laundry to a win?

As is always the case with AI, the wholes does not equal the sum of the parts. Never has, never will. And before I wrap this up, one last question:

Is it so impossible, really, to imagine a situation in which AI plays for a few years at a reasonable level, helps his teammates, and moves on to a next stage where he's happy and an asset?

OK, I lied. One more.

And if it's not possible to imagine that, doesn't that say more about you than him?

Gratitude

So last night as we were on final approach to the second coming of AI, an old friend and fellow Sixers fan and I were talking about the merits of the move. The conversation got me straight into the mind of an AI detractor, in that my man really isn't about anything but the championships. He questions why the management can never bring in the boring but winning guy, like a Tim Duncan, and he blames AI for not making his teammates better, since he never became a point guard or stopped dominating the ball.

And, well, sure. But don't the moments count for something?



The plain and simple act of the matter is that the very best Sixers team of the past 20 years was AI's Finals runner-up squad -- a 56 win team with copious amounts of Tyrone Hill, George Lynch, Eric Snow, Aaron McKie, Jumaine Jones and a haf dozen other guys that weren't very good there, or for anyone else. And yes, he's not as good as Kobe Bryant, who was in the same draft... but there's no way the Sixers were either going to trade down from the #1 spot, or risk taking a high school project with that pick.

And if the Sixers had done everything right with him -- which also probably includes going back in time and having him play for a real college coach, rather than John Thompson, architect of the 1988 Olympic embarrassment and the guy who couldn't win in the NCAAs with freaking Alonzo Mourning and Dikembe Mutumbo on the same team -- they surround him with Dirk Nowitzki or Paul Pierce instead of Larry Hughes, roll the dice with high school Tracy McGrady instead of the Keith van Horn / Tim Thomas experience, and...

well, they would lose in six games, not five, to the Shaqobe Lakers. And probably lose to the same team in the Finals next year, because the ugly fact of the matter is that Motivated Shaq and Behaving Himself Kobe were just unstoppable.

And here's the bigger moment and issue; if you need your team to win a championship to be happy, you really should not be watching sports. And I flatly refuse to believe that this was a bad fan experience, because it just wasn't. And if you don't agree... watch the clips again. See AI step over Tyronn Lue like a man crushing a cockroach. Watch him cross over Jordan. See him throw down the put back slam against the Raptors. And show a little freaking gratitude, OK?

NFL Picks Week 13: Expansion

More rumblings this week about the seemingly inevitable 18-game regular season, which we will supposedly get when the preseason is eradicated, helmets are improved enough to prevent rampant concussery (um, lots of luck with that, folks), and the Players Association is shown enough money to purchase a relatively well known island.

As a fantasy nerd and picks junkie who watches enough NFL football to consider it a significant lifestyle problem, I should be all for this, and anything that gets rid of the preseason is all right in my book, really. But just keep in mind that when this goes into effect -- and yes, it's a when, because raising the television and ticket revenue by 10% is a win for all concerned -- it won't be a panacea. You will see more players taking off games against weak opponents with dubious injuries, more use of backups in blowouts, and more good teams treating the last four weeks of the year as a de facto exhibition game.

No matter what, it's also going to cause more injuries, more uncertainty, and more disparity, as the good organizations rise over the middling with practice squad winners. And while you think it's going to save you from dull August days, just remember that with a larger schedule comes more from the teams that you don't want to watch, too. Browns and Rams fans probably want to see the season contracted, not expanded.

But at least it would keep 1,000 yard rushers alive in the Age of Committee. We'll need to bump the schedule to 20 in another decade, though.

And with that, on to the picks!

* * * * *

NY JETS at Buffalo (+3)

A true toss-up game, and a game that's begging for a sudden snowstorm to add some (any?) visual interest. Alas, while there might be flurries, there most likely won't be enough to save this one from dreary. A damn shame; wild amounts of snow, especially in the HD age, makes almost any game entertaining.

The Jets are in full Game Manager mode now with QB Matt Sanchez, to the extent that if the RBs ever see fewer than eight in the box, it's probably a third and long. And while WR Braylon Edwards made a big splash when he came to New York, he's gone back to being the inconsistent drop machine that Browns Fan does not miss. With the other weapons here being Jerricho Cotchery and Dustin Keller, the Jets just don't have enough to wet nurse Sanchez against good defenses. This team misses Leon Washington something terrible; he provided safe and easy yards to keep drives going and a rookie QB confidence high.

The Bills have looked a lot better under interim coach Perry Fewell, who has wisely chosen RB Fred Jackson and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick over RB Marshawn Lynch and QB Trent Edwards, not that Jackson and Ryno are any kind of long-term solution. The moves have given the running game a spark and resurrected WR Terrible Owens, so Buffalo is no longer playing with an abomination of an offense. Combined with the home field and Sanchez being a turnover machine, that would point you to the home team.

But this week, CB Darelle Reavis will make Owens disappear -- the job he did last week on Carolina's Steve Smith was a ball gag short of being illegal in many states -- and the Jets run defense will get it done. When you hold the Panthers' DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart to 75 yards (on 25 carries), I'm not expecting Jackson to do any damage, even at home.

Which leaves us with Jets RB Thomas Jones and the New Yorkers better line play, and my pick of the Jets. In all likelihood, the first team to see QB TAInt wins, but if those cancel out, it's the Jets in a grind.

Jets 16, Bills 10

PHILADELPHIA at Atlanta (+4.5)

The almost completely irrelevant sub-plot: Michael Vick's return to Atlanta. If you had told me at the start of the year that Vick's impact on the Eagles would be three to five mostly pointless plays a week, some occasional third down option conversions, and a contributing factor to the club's overall maddening inconsistency... well, I'd be less than thrilled. I was just hoping for a guy who might be more ready than Kevin Kolb in the event of an injury. But maybe he actually makes some plays this week. If nothing else, it will be intriguing to see if the Falcons crowd cheers, boos, or just sits on their hands when he gets in.

As for the game over the sideshow, I don't enjoy the Eagles being the favorite here. A road team in a dome, especially when they are as wildly inconsistent and beat up as the Birds are (short list: RB Brian Westbrook, WR DeSean Jackson, TE Brent Celek, maybe even WR Jason Avant) is not a wildly appealing team to lay points with.

But at least they aren't alone in their injury misery. Atlanta is likely to miss RB Michael Turner and QB Matt Ryan. They've also got a pretty brutal secondary... but TE Tony Gonzalez is plainly terrifying here, and this offensive line can give QB Chris Redman and RB Jason Snelling some time and space to do things.

I like the Eagles here for just one very big reason: QB Donovan McNabb, who is quietly having one of his best stretches as a pro. (Also, I just don't see Redman pulling this game off, especially with CB Asante Samuel making WR Roddy White disappear. Gonzalez can't do enough to win this game. I hope.)

Eagles 27, Falcons 20

ST. LOUIS at Chicago (-8.5)

Kyle Boller! Jay Cutler! Betting the over on interceptions! It's a game that no one wants to see, and independent of the turnover battle, there's the quietly awesome year being turned in by Rams RB Stephen Jackson. He's going to win some MVP votes, because without him, I think the Rams are folded with Arena Ball.

A month ago, the Cardinals destroyed the Bears on the ground at home, but a week ago in Minnesota, they actually handled RB Adrian Peterson pretty well, so there's no clear pattern there... and for the Bears, RB Matt Forte hasn't been able to get on track all year. There's some guy in an Orlando Pace jersey that's doing horrible things to that guy's reputation.

It also doesn't help either QB that the WRs for both teams are erratic at best. Donnie Avery and Devin Hester would be fine as #3 slot guys, but as #1s, they just can't get consistent separation, and neither is very good at fighting for the ball to prevent picks. I won't pretend that Cutler or Boller are very good this year, but I'm not sure if you put Drew Brees and Peyton Manning in this situation that the won-loss records would look any different.

As for the pick... let's just say that I'm not liking the Rams outdoors. Or indoors. Maybe they'd be better underwater, on in outer space. But expecting Cutler to cover a big number is just slightly less appetizing than expecting Boller to keep it close. Stephen Jackson, you are our only hope.

Bears 24, Rams 20

Detroit at CINCINNATI (-13)

For three straight weeks, the Bengals play a terrible team that they should dominate. Last week, they more or less controlled the Browns, but didn't do enough through the air to put the game away, despite a ton of yards from backup RBs Larry Johnson and Bernard Scott. Meanwhile, Detroit was stumbling through their annual Thanksgiving loss, with QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson looking hobbled by injury, and the rest of the roster looking hobbled by being Detroit Lions.

I suspect that this is the week that RB Cedric Benson comes back to put up serious numbers, and QB Carson Palmer does major damage with WR Chad Ochocinco, because the Lions just can't guard anyone. I'm also just not seeing Stafford being healthy enough, or getting enough time to throw. But the Bengals are good at sleeping on bad teams, so while they should make the cover, don't expect a lot more than that. I'm hoping for a Benson pad the stats late touch to do the deed, really.

Bengals 31, Lions 16

NEW ORLEANS at Washington (+9.5)

Historically, teams with big home wins on MNF tend to struggle the next week, especially when they have to go on the road. This one has trap game written all over it, as the Saints demolished the Patriots to stay undefeated, while the Redskins blew an 8-point fourth quarter lead on the road in Philadelphia.

But I just don't believe in trap games; they are the kind of thing that you always notice when it happens, but never when it doesn't. It's like talking about how a missed extra point always comes back to haunt you. Not always, and when it doesn't happen, you forget all about it.

That's not to sell the Washington defense short. They hit hard (last week, they gave out concussions for DeSean Jackson and ligament damage for Brent Celek), and don't quit. But they can be beaten deep, and so long as Albert Haynesworth is likely to take a miss, they won't be able to keep the Saints from moving the sticks with Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell.

But the real reason why I'm taking the Saints here is the defense. They are opportunistic, get after the QB, and aren't exactly facing the Montana Niners here. And if you hear a large number of Saints fans cheering on their team here, don't be too surprised: Skins Fan likes to sell their tickets to fans of the opposing laundry, and this year, it's hard not to be a fan of this laundry.

Saints 24, Redskins 13

TAMPA BAY at Carolina (-6.5)

Hey, we finally found out what Jake Delhomme had to do to get benched! It's a shame, really: after the last four picks last week against the Jets, Jake's got 18 for the year (against 8 TDs). I was hoping he'd get to 30, really. When you are pursuing greatness, you just have to go for it, really. (The official cause for replacement is a broken finger. Like Jake's really been well served by having ten functioning digits this year. Maybe the broken finger is the one that's been causing all of those picks.)

The road Bucs have alternated between frisky (close but not quite losses to the Falcons and Dolphins) and roadkill (New Orleans), with rookie QB Josh Freeman showing more than a few signs that he's going to be good. It's hard to imagine a 1-10 team really coming through on the road, and there's a reasonable chance that the Panthers just come out with an olly olly oxenfree kind of breakout game now that they've gone to QB by Not Jake. But I just like Freeman to WR Antonio Bryant more than QB Matt Moore to WR Steve Smith for the Bucs. As a matter of fact, it's not even close.

Bucs 24, Panthers 17

HOUSTON at Jacksonville (-1)

Perhaps the two most maddening teams in the NFL, and they share the same division. Jacksonville has been terrible on the road (with the lone exception of the Maurice Jones-Drew sit win in New York). Houston can't put back to back solid performances together, and can't seem to sustain drives with their baffling committee running game (honestly, how bad does Chris Brown have to look to not get touches?). Neither team's defense should be trusted, and while Jacksonville has won at home, it's hard to see why, really.

In a de facto elimination game, I'll take Houston and Matt Schaub, rather than the quietly terrible David Garrard. There's also this: WR Andre Johnson, who really doesn't get nearly enough looks to match his talent. This week, that changes, if for no other reason than this Jacksonville team got torn apart by Alex Smith and Vernon Davis. Schaub and Johnson are a bit better than that, really.

Texans 31, Jaguars 17

Tennessee at INDIANAPOLIS (-7)

Is this the week that the smoke and mirrors cease? Time is getting short for the Colts to actually lose a game this year and give head coach Jim Caldwell the chance to rest his players. With a three game lead over two other teams in the AFC, there's almost no real chance of them blowing the #1 seed, and with players like Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Joseph Addai and Dallas Clark all in need of a break, it's almost as if they'd welcome a loss.

However, the Titans aren't that kind of team for the Colts; they are a division rival that, unlike the Texans and Jaguars, have actually put a hurting on the home team from time to time. Indy would like to end the resurgent Titans playoff hopes. and at home, with a good defense and a loud dome crowd, I think they get it done. But betting against RB Chris Johnson and his 6.4 (!) yards per carry average is plainly terrifying.

Colts 27, Titans 16

DENVER at Kansas City (+5)

The 7-4 Broncos against the no longer good at home 3-8 Chiefs; this one's easy, right? Not so fast. The Broncos have lost four out of their last five, while the Chiefs are 2-3... but while Denver was punking the Giants at home on Thanksgiving Eve, the Chiefs were getting absolutely rolled in San Diego.

This one is also a battle between two wunderkind coaches, which generally doesn't work out. Go with the visitors here, if for no other reason then that they can run the ball well and have strong weapons at WR and TE. I also suspect that the Broncos can overcome a bad play or two, while the Chiefs just seem limited. That, and CB Champ Bailey will prevent WR Chris Chambers from making the 3-4 big plays that the Chiefs will need to stay in the game.

Broncos 24, Chiefs 17

NEW ENGLAND at Miami (+5)

Why is New England favored by five here? They only won by 10 at home against the Dolphins a month ago, they are on the road in a stadium where they frequently struggle, and they are coming into this game after getting absolutely eviscerated on MNF in New Orleans. On the other hand, the Dolphins are a sub-.500 team that just lost by 17 to a terrible Bills team, so there's that, really. Had Miami merely taken care of business, they'd be playing for the division lead here, rather than just harboring impossible dreams for the post-season.

Last month, Randy Moss lit up the Dolphins to the tune of 147 yards, and it's hard to see how that will change in good weather in South Florida. I also get the sense that RB Ricky Williams is starting to wear out from the #1 role that he acquired after RB Ronnie Brown went down for the year.

Finally, there's this. I'm just not ready to write off the Patriots as a complete fraud and paper tiger, despite the fact that they are 7-4 without any big wins over quality teams, and have given up 87 points in the last three games, despite having a middle game against the pedestrian Jets. Against the Dolphins, I think they wake up the echoes a little bit, and use surprisingly OK RB Lawrence Maroney to lead a clock killing offense. But don't worry, Masshole Haters: this team isn't winning a playoff game. Not this year, and not with that defense.

Patriots 34, Dolphins 27

Oakland at PITTSBURGH (NL)

A Papa Spank game if there ever was one. Oakland is 1-4 on the road, start Bruce Gradkowski at QB and no one whose name you need to know at WR, and facing a furious and desperate Steelers team that will be getting back QB Ben Roethlesberger. And while the Steelers defense and special teams aren't what they should be, especially with S Troy Polamalu sidelined, it's not as if the Raiders are going to be able to take advantage.

On offense, even if the home team starts QB Dennis Dixon again, I don't think It will matter, because Oakland is terrible at stopping the run, and Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is going to hand it off 30+ times in this game. With very good results indeed. After the next two weeks, the Steelers will be back to 8-5, in command for a wild card, and looking very much like their old selves. The same goes, in a not nearly as happy way, for Oakland.

Pittsburgh 31, Raiders 6

SAN DIEGO (-13) at Cleveland

Now this is the way the Chargers should look. With RB LaDanian Tomlinson scoring from in tight, TE Antonio Gates having a monster game, and the defense finally looking like something that has talented players, the best talent in the AFC is making their move for the #2 seed now, though the schedule is going to get a lot harder after this week. Enjoy Clown Time while you can, Norvalicious.

The Browns went back to their three yards and a cloud of pointlessness throwing game last week in Cincy, as QB Brady Quinn went 15 for 34 for 100 yards. No, seriously. If you can see the point in this offensive attack, you might be the only one. By the time this year is over, Quinn is going to be convinced that a 20 yard slant or out is just out of his weight class. It's not easy going 1-10, folks, even with an offense that averages just over 11 points a game. Ye gads.

Chargers 41, Browns 9

DALLAS at NY Giants (-1.5)

Quitting time for the Giants, who have been .500 or worse for a solid year now, have a terrible (for them) defense, and are starting to make health related excuses for the wildly overpaid Eli Manning. This week, it's win or play scrubs time for a home game against the 8-3 Cowboys, who have managed to play bad football and win for good portions of their schedule, and have their own history of December collapses to overcome.

I like the road team here because I think they will run it for at least 150 yards, and be able to salt the game away on the ground late. While New York does have some weapons in the passing game, and the Cowboys can be had, Manning has rarely been at his best at home in the late regular season. The Cowboys have also started to develop secondary weapons (second TE Martellus Bennett, wildcat RB Tashard Choice) that have paid off, unlike the Giants. Look for the Cowboys to spring a couple of big plays, the Giants to rely too much on Eli, and the visitors to grind the clock and close late.

Cowboys 23, Giants 20

San Francisco at SEATTLE (-1)

Hey, remember all of those words that I wrote last week about how the NFC West teams play each other four times a year when no one is looking, just to make writing this picks column seem like Catholic penance? (No words on how that's matched by reading it, please. My fragile sense of self-worth is always at risk in situations like this.)

Well, here we go again.

You want the home team because Seattle is good at home, and San Francisco is not going to be able to put together back to back wins. It also helps that the Seahawks have finally started giving the ball to their best RB (Justin Forsett, who has quicks), even though it took freaking forever to move on from the Julius Jones Era. But if the Niners can get a lead and send blitzers at the increasingly calcifying Matt Hasselbeck, you're not going to be loving the pick.

Look for the Seattle defense to give a short field on an early Alex Smith mistake, and unlike last week in San Francisco against the Jags, the opponent won't keep turning it over in the red zone. The Niners won't quit, but they also won't win.

Seahawks 24, Niners 20

Minnesota at ARIZONA (NL)

Your SNF game and a flex play, and a small word on Kurt Warner... gah, grr, hate hate hate. I get that concussions are serious business, but really, you practice all week and then bail from day of symptoms? If this keeps up, we're going to see 40 to 50 guys sitting every week, and fantasy leagues decided by the likes of Matt Leinart. No one wants to see that.

Minnesota had another ho-hum crushing last week, putting the Bears out of everyone's misery. If you are looking for chinks in Favre's armor, there just isn't any. He's not even going to see a game in the elements, given how the Vikings are a near lock for a top 2 seed now, and even in the event of a road NFC championship game in New Orleans, he's still in a nice and warm dome for his old bones.

But this week, despite the fact that I'm not (yet) getting points, I like the Cardinals. They've ran the ball just well enough to keep teams honest. Had Vince Young not gotten very lucky last week, they'd be riding high on another road win against a quality opponent, even with a backup QB; instead, they'll come in needing this one, which is really not the case for Minnesota. A night game is still rare for Cardinals Fan, who will be loud and proud for this one. And the Cards may actually do something that very few teams have done against Favre this year: generate pressure with the base defensive package. I still believe that when you do that, picks and fumbles will follow.

So for the second straight week, I'm putting my pick out early before the Warner/Leinart ten point swing decision is made, mostly because I can't shake the idea that Brett Favre has to actually not be perfect every freaking week. Honestly, it's getting kind of crazy. Was he dogging it for the past decade? Is he transferring all of his turnover powers to the secretly suspect Adrian Peterson, who keeps putting the ball on the carpet as he pisses away his #1 fantasy RB status? (It's Chris Johnson in a walk right now, AP. Get angry.)

Cardinals 31, Vikings 24

BALTIMORE at Green Bay (-3)

Do you believe in the suddenly surging Packers? I don't, or at least, not enough: the secondary is still banged up, the offensive line hasn't fixed things so much as played easier teams, they still don't run the ball well enough, and their special teams are just ordinary. They also have the Andy Reid disease of failing to use their timeouts well, and struggling in the red zone. Maybe there's just something about teams that throw it too much, no?

Against a Ravens team that actually won a close one last week, I suspect they'll score points but fail to get off the field, especially against Ray Rice and La'Ron McClain, who Baltimore coach John Harbaugh has wisely conserved for the stretch run, having used up Willis McGahee on games that didn't mean as much. Besides, prosperity just doesn't agree with the Packers this year, and even at home, I just don't trust this defense very much. (I also don't trust the Ravens defense all that much either, but at least they can run the ball and do some things on special teams.)

Ravens 27, Packers 23

Last week: 6-10

Year to date: 82-90-3