Saturday, September 10, 2022

Your Worthless 2022 Eagles Prediction

Maybe if you combed your beard more
 The rule of thumb for the Eagles in most years is that if you think they will be good, you're wrong and hate life... and if you think they'll be bad, you'll be pleasantly surprised by relative mediocrity. When what really happens is that their dumpster fire of a division (Jerry Jones! Daniel Snyder! The Mara Family! Take a bow!) changes and warps all assessment, and the NFC Least division winner gets exposed in a one-and-done playoff appearance.

And then there's this year. The Eagles added a half-dozen defensive starters, either through well-regarded draft picks, free agent signings that are getting applauded from outside of the area, and some returns from injury. For the first time in something like 15 to 20 years -- yes, even the Super Bowl year -- they may actually have the most exotic of football animals, a linebacker that would get a starting job somewhere else if they were released. They signed a CB2 (James Bradberry) with size, some good recent performance, and a summer filled with glowing camp reviews. They might even rush the passer, and if Derek Barnett (back on a discount!) makes bonehead penalties, he'll sit, because he's not even really a starter anymore. Instead of hoping that reach past draft picks like third rounder Davion Taylor will be fine if just given playing time, they cut him, then signed him back to the practice squad when the rest of the league shrugged. There's so much to like here.

Anyway. Let's pick wins and losses.

Week 1 - WIN at Detroit. The Lions have some points in their favor and Week 1 is always odd, but they come in with a hurt offensive line and a past inability to stop the run. The Eagles should win this by two touchdowns, so let's assume a close game due to turnover variances.

Week 2 - LOSS against Minnesota on a Monday night. The Eagles aren't starting the year 4-0, and they aren't losing either of the next two games. So this is the whiff game.

Week 3 - WIN At Washington. Betting for Daniel Snyder's team to implode is never a bad idea, and the need for the franchise to dunk on Carson Wentz will make for tens of thousands of Philly Fan to fill that terrible stadium and turn it into a home game.

Week 4 - WIN against Jacksonville. This is a potential trap game if they beat Minnesota, but it's just too soon in Doug Pederson's second head coaching job to pull off a road win.

Week 5 - LOSS at Arizona. There's some definite bad juju coming out of Arizona, but this road trip has been a nightmare for the team for most of the last two decades. Zach Ertz revenge game, assuming he's healthy enough to deliver it.

Week 6 - WIN against Dallas. Definitive game for the first half of the season against the only other team in the division that should be above .500. Dallas is showing issues in the offensive line, I'm not convinced that QB Dak Prescott can overcome decay there, and this defense was artificially good last year on turnover variance. 

Week 7 - WIN against Pittsburgh. Count me in the not really believing in QB Mitchell Trubisky camp. (Let's face it: you aren't winning when you rely on a Mitchell. Don't make me go down the MST3K rabbit hole as to why.) The Steelers are too well-coached to tank, but maybe they should? Not going to be a fun year for them.

Week 8 - WIN at Houston. Bad franchise and an ugly TNF game, but momentum is a thing at this point as the club goes to 6-2 and starts to dream of playoff positioning.

Week 9 - WIN against Washington. There's a stumble game somewhere in this mess, but I kind of expect Wentz to either have a Covid relapse, dramatic benching, team revolt or some other injury by now. It's important for him to not hear Philly Fan with years of pent-up things to say. Maybe going all in on an anti vax Jebus hick wasn't meant to be.

Week 10 - WIN at Indianapolis. Trying to get a sense of whether QB Matt Ryan is actually good or not is above my pay grade, but some of his worst work has been against my laundry. This gets them to 8-2 and a lot of Are They For Real talk.

Week 11 - LOSS against Green Bay. This isn't an imposible mission, and Green Bay has some of that "are they actually good or just taking advantage of a bad division" going for them as well... but the bounces never all go your way.

Week 12 - LOSS against Tennessee. One of the not so lovely things about the Eagles in the last two decades is that they really don't have a home field advantage any more. No one feels bad playing at that field, the way they felt bad at the Vet, and the pricing took the fans that cared way too much out of the arena. Expect The Sky Is Falling and They Are Frauds talk after this. It's what happens.

Week 13 - WIN in New York. Sky isn't falling, especially when two of the last five games of the year involve a Giants team that will be tanking for their next QB. 

Week 14 - WIN in Chicago. Another team that might be tanking. I also really don't think QB Justin Fields will be healthy by Week 14.

Week 15 - WIN in Dallas. A for the marbles / passing of the torch game. Dallas just doesn't have the back end roster management skills to overcome injury. But it'll be a sweat, if for no reason other than CB Darius Slay might not be a CB1 by then.

Week 16 - WIN against New Orleans. Dome team on New Year's Day on the road isn't a winning formula. Could be a trap game, honestly.

Week 16 - WIN against New York -- assuming it's not a rest the starters game. It might be. But I suspect the Giants will want the loss more.

Final record: 13-4, first in the NFC East, #1 or #2 seed in the NFC. Loses in the NFC Championship Game. Off-season is filled with debate as to whether QB Jalen Hurts because the QB that loses in the Championship Game always gets that vote, HC Nick Sirianni, RB Miles Sanders and CB Darius Slay all need to come back for another shot in 2023. 

C Jason Kelce, DE Brandon Graham and DT Fletcher Cox all play their final games in the laundry, either through retirement or injury. All Pros are Kelce on a lifetime retirement vote, TE Dallas Goedert, QB Hurts, and DT Jason Hargrave. Team trades Hurts and picks for an older QB in what is seen as a panic move to seize a window that probably isn't closing... setting the stage for not winning the division in 2023, despite the division looking like it's ready for relegation. It's almost as if we can't have nice things!

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