The reality of sports is that most seasons do not end when a team is eliminated. If you watch carefully, you can generally see the cracks in a foundation that will spread under pressure, and while humans have the potential for both positive and negative growth, bet on the latter because, well, only one team can win everything every year.
Which is a roundabout way of saying that this year's Eagls team, which has gone from 10-1 and the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl to 11-5 and everyone's team that they expect to be out in their first playoff game, has not so much broken my heart as just reminded me of the sad realities of life. These include, but are not limited to:
> Last year's team wasn't as good as you remember. They benefitted from playing one of the easiest schedules in NFL history, then benefitted even more with luck around injuries -- both their own, and of their opponents. (This does not include the injury to 49ers QB Brock Purdy in the NFC Championship Game, since that "luck" was aided and abetted by terrible strategy on the part of the Niners, but I digress.) When the Eagles face good quarterbacks, they generally get roasted. This year, they've faced many more good ones than bad.
> This year's team wasn't great during the 10-1 stretch; they were very, very lucky. Had Washington went for two in the early game, that's likely a loss. Had Kansas City had a competent WR for the open deep ball late, that is as well. Same for the missed communication with Buffalo in overtime that forced a field goal, rather than a touchdown. Because...
> It matters how you win. Truly good teams do it with a margin for error that lets them do things like rotate in backups during low pressure situations (like, say, most of the second halves of Eagles games in 2022), which preseves depth and health, and allows coaches to save novel plays and formations for when they really need them. If every game is a dogfight to the final whistle, it wears a team out. Not just the fans and media.
> This team hasn't been unlucky during their 1-4 stretch. They are just bad. Yes, there have been some howlingly bad officiating calls, some plays not made by players that often make them, and some untimely gaps from injury. That happens to every team in every game. Good teams have margin for error. This team has none. And that's with the best field goal kicker in their history, and an off-the-street punter that has been way better than they had any right to expect.
> This is the worst Eagles defense I've ever seen. Are you patient in your playcalling? Then run the ball, and win, because the edge rushers are spent and undersized, and you can wear them out. Do you have a QB that knows enough to pick on a particular CB? James Bradberry, the worst starter in the league, is here for you, and if he's not around, just go after the inexperienced rookie that's in his place. Would you like to complete a bunch of short and easy throws over the middle? The Eagles employ linebackers no other team would hire, slot corners that are injured and/or long in the tooth, and other people that most teams don't even claim on waivers. Is your offense prone to mistakes that cause long third downs? No worries, this defense is the worst in franchise history at getting off the field in those situations.
The Cardinals, a West Coast team playing a 1PM EST Sunday game on the road, with one of the worst offenses in the league and a 15-point deficit after a fluke pick-6, barely faced a third down during the second half of the game yesterday. You don't see that sort of thing outside of a college team playing a small school cupcake. Maybe not even then. Two weeks after giving up a length of the field game-losing drive to a career backup, three and four weeks after getting boat-raced by actually good offenses. Just the worst defense I've ever seen in this laundry, and that even includes the Open Revolt Chip Kelly era.
> There is a clear and obvious coaching problem. Many of these players excel on special teams (the single part of the team that has improved over last year), so you know they have athletic ability. They've also shown flashes of it in the past, and even if that's just a matter of comparative speed against their washed collegues, it's still a well-regarded team from drafts and free agency. There isn't a single offensive starter, with the possible exception of WR3 or TE2, that is below average. And yet, they do not control games, do not hold or build on leads, do not make halftime adjustments, and have completed a mid-season mid-collapse shakeup at defensive coordinator. Despite having the best won-loss percentage in franchise history and being the toast of the town six weeks ago, there are very good reasons to question the job security of HC Nick Sirianni now. You can't preside over the worst collapse in franchise history without people wondering just why in hell it should change with the same coach.
> They will not win more than two games the rest of this year, and I suspect it will be more like none. At least they won't be at home any more. But even if the play calling suddenly gets a clue (hint: never throw another bubble screen again, attack the middle of the field, stop burning time outs for pointless substitutions, commit to a running game and do it with more than tortoise tempo, tell your QB to throw to open receivers that aren't named Brown, Smith and Goedert), they still can't stop anyone, and even though the offense is talented, they aren't exactly innovative or error-free.
> The Georgia guys aren't performing. Maybe this isn't fair of young players, but DE Nolan Smith has been a rumor all year, LB Nkobe Dean can't stay healthy, and DT Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter haven't made a play in months. If you want to question their heart, their conditioning, their coaching... have at it. Our only hope is that they don't like this taste in their mouth and work harder in the off-season, and that the inevitable coaching shake up works out.
> Depth matters. You can't just decide that linebackers aren't a thing any more and then get surprised when the run defense turns to paper-maiche. If you can't trust RB Rashard Penny to play because he's hopeless at blitz pickup, you cut him and find a RB that can do something for him. Several defensive players have gone from starter to inactive a week later. This is a clown car. Without the effective use of seating.
> This isn't worth our time. I don't know about you, dear reader, but the older I get, the more I'm inclined to pull the chute on a team when I see the cracks. Watching the Seahawk loss, or the Cardinal loss, wasn't all that different than the Cowboy or Niner one; in all of these cases, the known cracks failed and the end of the season can't some soon enough. I'm old enugh to know that I'm going to watch the rest of it, because sunk cost. But I also know I'm going to do it while folding laundry, completing consulting work, and without any kind of emotional commitment... because we know what they are.
Not good enough. At least not this year. And unless major changes are made, not next, either.
