The case for LA: If Chris Paul is healthy, he's the best player in the series, and if you have the best player in the series, you have a shot. They won the Grizzly series due to their bench, and that's going to be necessary to stay with the Spurs. San Antonio is old and injury prone, so this series could change on a play or two, and just might. They've proven that they can win on the road, and that they can steal games they have no right to win.
The case against: A lot less rest. Lucky to be here. Terrible coach, shaky free throw shooting, and very prone to physical play. Can easily lose their head in the wake of refs that aren't going their way, and really just the perfect patsy against a team with veteran smarts. If Paul isn't healthy, Tony Parker will eat him alive, and even if he is, Parker is going to fight him a lot closer to equilibrium than Mike Conley did.
The case for San Antonio: Rested, with home court, and a better record. Tons of championship experience in the starters, with lots of athleticism in the reserves. The best coach in the business. Deep enough to be much more rested than their opponents this year, which is just an immense advantage. Solid home court crowd, and just have the look of This Is Their Year about them.
The case against: A lot of players in the rotation can lead to an unsettled feeling in crunch time. When things to badly for them, as has happened a lot in the last few years, collapses are common. Still reliant on the old trio of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili to close out teams, which means they rely on three guys who can get hurt in a stiff wind. Many of the key rotation players are untested.
The pick: Spurs in five, with all kinds of evidence as to why Del Negro should not be working in the Association. Besides, I'm really not sold on the idea that Paul is healthy, or that Blake Griffin is going to do too much more than look confused for the entire series. There's a reason why old teams tend to win in the NBA Playoffs...