Bill Simmons and the Problem of Third Gear

Something Like This

 In 1999, I acquired the best car of my life. There are few professions in life that are more useful for your brother to be than a car salesman, assuming your brother isn't slime, and my brother hooked me up good. It was a Nissan 240SX, a 5-speed stick with an after-market exhaust that gave me 240 horsepower in a 2-seater and freaking race car tires that were rated up to 180 mph. It only got about 25 miles per gallon, and it wasn't terribly feasible for a ton of cargo or people in the back seats, but that wasn't the point. I was newly 30, not yet a father, and enjoyed the hell out of being able to get from 0 to 60 faster than just about anyone else.

And there's also this: stick. If you actually want to be involved in the act of driving, there really is only stick, especially when you can break free of traffic and kick things into fourth and fifth gear. Once on a trip from Oregon to California, I found myself on a long straight stretch with clear sight lines that made me pretty sure that there were no police, so I took the opportunity to test the vehicle's capabilities in fifth gear. When I finally lost my nerve and eased off the gas, I was going 135... and the RPMs were still in the 5500 range, with the red line for fifth at 7500. The car didn't even sound like it was straining. Magnificent.

Now, the problem with going 135... is that 65, or even 85, feels like you are crawling. This is the way of good gear and big paychecks and better food and acquired tastes; going back to what you had before will always taste of ash. Getting your head around something new that might not be as good, or will have to accept certain compromises, is a real challenge. (For the record, I drive a hatchback hybrid now, and lost all taste for speeding once I became a dad. It changes you a lot, fatherhood.)

And this leads us to the reports hitting Blogfrica about how the only content provider to ever make real money (that would be Bill Simmons, for whom the rest of the sports blogosphere mostly loathes, for reasons both jealous and correct)... is contemplating leaving the World Wide Lemur when his contract comes up next year.

Which is probably just inevitable, given the Bad Tooth's recent suspension for telling the truth about Roger Goodell in obnoxious ways, and his employer's increasing willingness to tell him to take a powder. Simmons also has on-air time for the only sport he's still good at (that would be the NBA), the documentary side that probably can run without him now, and the side sites under the Lemur Umbrella that can't possibly make it on pure traffic and ad sales. For a bottom-line business that laid off people last year, in the race to the bottom CPM land that is online, it's got to be a hard thing to scratch a $3 million annual check.

There will be others, of course, who would take him on if the World Wide Lemur demurs, or he truly wants to be somewhere else. (Fox, Bleacher Report, etc.) They wouldn't give him as many things to do, or pay the same freight in the long run, and in the hustle hustle hustle world of page views, the guy in his '40s with life, wife and kids is never as good as the guy in his '20s with none... but brand names are brand names, and prestige / challenge signings happen all the time between competitors. (For the sake of argument, we'll also take off the table that he enters a totally new line of work, in that no NBA team is going to make him a coach or GM, and no NBA network is going to put him on-air without a fight, as he's grating and horrible there, and doesn't have Ex Star Athlete cred.)

But for the principal his own damned self, leaving the Lemur for properties that are just words is going to feel like 55 after 200. It might be the right speed to drive, especially if you want to know your kids, and you may decide you've banked enough to move on to new things.

Or you may decide that you really miss it all, and sigh a little sigh every time you think about what you've left behind.

Me, I lust after Lotus Super Sevens... which go 0 to 60 faster than a Lamborghini, and pigs will fly before I get one. (You'll see why below.)

Top Twelve Reasons Why Michigan Is Keeping Brady Hoke

12) There's still a mathe- matical chance that the team could be national champions, assuming that math involves an astonishing number of transportation fatalities and targeted Ebola outbreaks

11) Being good at football is so last century

10) If you start doing things that students, alumni, fans and everyone but your opponents want you to do, you lack manliness

9) University is not comfortable with its high regard in academic and employment circles, and realizes it needs to be taken down a peg or six

8) If the Wolverines are good at football, it distracts from the Tigers, Lions, Red Wings and Booze

7) People in Michigan have had it too soft, what with the temperate winters and robust automobile employment

6) That Coke promotion for $100 tickets for the price of a couple of bottles of soda is a marketing case study that has to work, no matter the cost

5) Anyone can put six figures of football fans in the stadium to see a winning team, but it takes real character to do it for a stone cold loser

4) If Hoke completely tanks this, they'll be able to get a Harbaugh to take the job for cheap out of pity

3) Personal attacks on the coach and athletic director, regardless of merit, will not be tolerated, and public whippings will continue until morale improves

2) Elevating a defensive line coach to head coach gives soon to be under-employed students hope that they, too, will get a job that is vastly beyond their abilities

1) The administration has been secretly taken over by filthy, stinking Irish and Buckeys and Spartans, oh my

MLB Playoff Predictions: You Don't Have To Like It To Win

No Sir, I Do Not Like It

So I'm 2-0 on the one-day crapshoots, and man alive, did it hurt. My A's didn't lose the slow burn 4-2 Not Enough Offense game; instead, they went down 8-7 with their best and most experienced SP on the mound, mostly because the opposition blooped in a half dozen lucky hits, then ran the bases like a relay team against poor Derek Norris, who will probably never ever play catcher again. (Norris was in for Geovany Soto, who got hurt when the Royals ran into their only out early in the game.) In the next game, form, Madison Bumgarner and experience held as the Freaking Giants did the deed again to Pittsburgh, and they are well on their way to their third World Series championship in the last 12 months. (OK, not quite, but it just feels that way. It's not easy to be an A's fan.)

But there's no rest for tears or profit. Let's get into it.

DETROIT at Baltimore

The case for Detroit: They have the best SPs in the playoffs. They will bring Anibal Sanchez in for bullpen work. Miguel Cabrera can take over the game. They have a fairly strong amount of playoff experience, much of it positive. Dominant starting pitching is the best predictor of postseason success.

The case against Detroit: The SPs haven't been that dominant, especially Justin Verlander. David Price seems to bunch all of his baserunners in big innings. Max Scherzer is a monster, but he tends to rack up big pitch counts. Rick Porcello has had his best year to date and has strong talent, but he's still fairly hittable. Defense has been a problem for so long that they've kind of forgotten that it's a problem. They don't have home field, and the bullpen looks absolutely primed to implode. It's hard to remember a deep playoff run with this weak of a closer situation.

The case for Baltimore: Have been the best team in the league for a surprisingly long run. Might have the best offense in the playoffs, and that's with the loss of their starting catcher and corner infielders. Bullpen has been lockdown, and they have home crowd and a huge home field advantage. Given what they've overcome and how well they've played, there's a certain sense of destiny here.

The case against Baltimore: When three of your four SPs in a playoff series are listed as Undecided, despite having a week of meaningless games... well, um, wow. (OK, they are probably just going to throw Bud Norris and Wei-Yin Chen after Chris Tillman, but you get the point.) Almost no playoff experience, which tends to crop up when things get tight, especially on offense.

The pick: Detroit in four. Baltimore will score more runs in the series thanks to one big blowout, but Detroit will take care of the others in tight fashion, with the Tiger relief corps doing just enough to get it done.

Kansas City at LOS ANGELES (Not Really)

The case for Kansas City: Immense home field advantage. Dominant late inning relief. Best outfield defense in MLB; infield defense is nearly as good. Can turn games with their base running, obviously. Shouldn't have gotten this far, which means they are totally playing with house money.

The case against Kansas City: Just can't hit, and the SPs aren't so good as to overcome that problem. Manager Ned Yost makes bizarre decisions. Yordano Ventura is scheduled to pitch Game 2 right now, despite throwing on Sunday and getting pounded in relief of James Shields.

The case for Los Angeles (kind of): They've got the best player in the game in OF Mike Trout, and a downright terrifying middle of the order with the resurgent Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. Other hitters (David Freese, Chris Iannetta, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar) have been rounding into shape. Kole Calhoun is the best OF in the AL that no one has ever heard of. With Matt Shoemaker and Jered Weaver, they have two of the better SP options in this series, and close Huston Street has been absolutely lights out since coming over.

The case against Los Angeles (kind of): Middling defense, especially in the infield. Starting pitcher depth went out the window when Garrett Richards got hurt, and the set up men (outside of Joe Smith) are pretty fungible. A lot of post-season experience, much of it not happy. A home field that is a little spoiled, honestly, and haven't brought the deep hurting since the Rally Monkey nonsense of a decade ago.

The pick: Angels in four, and maybe even three. When you have the best half dozen hitters in a series, and the two best SPs, and home field, you should win. Easily. Especially when your opponent had to beat itself senseless to get here. The Angels are getting the closest thing to a bye in MLB.

San Francisco at WASHINGTON

The case for San Francisco: Lots of experience in winning World Series. The best catcher in the playoffs in Buster Posey. Solid starting pitching and defense. Several hot runs this year when they were the best team in baseball. Plainly and obviously dangerous.

The case against San Francisco: Well, they didn't win their division, mostly because they spent September kicking the ball around. Bullpen isn't nearly as airtight as past year, and SP depth isn't as solid, either. if OF Hunter Pence isn't on his game, the offense is ordinary at best, and there isn't much on the bench that scares you. Don't have home field, which is a big deal, considering how big their edge is at what I'm still calling Pac Bell.

The case for Washington: Just the best overall talent in the NL, with five top-drawer performers (Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth, Denard Span, Ian Desmond and Adam LaRoche), and we're not even getting to Bryce Harper, Wilson Ramos and Asdrubal Cabrera. That's not even getting to the best part of this team, the SP corps of Jordan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, Doug Fister and Gio Gonzalez. By the pure talent involved, this might be the best team in baseball.

The case against Washington: Not all that much post-season experience. Bullpen isn't terrible, but has been unsettled. Spent much of 2014 just stumbling around and not winning a terrible division, which speaks to a certain lack of top-drawer management. Prone to big strikeout and dumb mistake games, though not recently.

The pick: Washington in five. It would be less if SF didn't have experience and home-field advantage, and I wouldn't be shocked if it's a sweep; burning Bumgarner to get past the Pirates is a big problem. But the Nats were going through regardless.

ST. LOUIS at Los Angeles (actually)

The case for St. Louis: They do this every freaking year. There's really nothing more that you need to say about them; they do this every freaking year. Adam Wainwright is dominant, and the offensive players are gelling. They play solid defense, enjoy a great home crowd, and don't panic in big games. Betting against them is like betting against the tides.

The case against St. Louis: SP depth isn't quite as good as usual, in that I'm not fan of John Lackey. Bullpen has been unsettled, with closer Trevor Rosenthal doing everything he can to lose the gig recently. They don't win every year, and they don't have clearly superior talent in this matchup.

The case for Los Angeles: Will start Clayton Kershaw twice, which should mean that they only have to win one of three games he doesn't pitch. (The problem with that: Wainwright might neutralize him.) The OF has game-changing talent with Yasiel Puig and the comebacking Matt Kemp. Adrian Gonzalez led the NL in RBIs, and Dee Gordon led the league in SBs. Hanley Ramirez is still here and still great. Zach Greinke is solid, and so is Hyun-Jin Ryu. They don't have to use Dan Haren in a short series. They have home field, and an excellent bench.

The case against Los Angeles: Billpen can be dicey; for a guy with 44 saves, Kenley Jansen has been surprisingly hittable. Puig can do exasperating and pointless things. Coach Don Mattingly is prone to odd moments and more drama than you'd like. They are prone to putting Carl Crawford in the starting line up, which is never a good idea. They are an emotional team, with lots of brushback moments inspired by Puig's weirdness.

The pick: St. Louis in four. On talent, the Dodgers have this hands down, but the games aren't always won on talent.

The A's Lost, In Ways That Defied Belief

The A's In Late Innings

I'm all kinds of numb from this game, considering it was one of the most heart-breaking losses and excruciating experiences of my life as a fan... but, well, I write a blog and have to fill it and so on, and so on. Let's just get into it.

> SP Jon Lester is, we are told and with all kinds of prior experience, a dominant post-season pitcher. So I didn't just see him spit up 6 ERs while national television still fellated him as if he we were in the same world as people like Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez.

Not to sound too bitter about this, but when your best offensive player is a .260 hitting outfielder with moderate power, and the biggest worry is to keep the other team's low OBP guys off the bases because they can steal a lot of them...

Um, no.

Don't let the door hit you on the ass, Jon.

> Brandon Moss held off from surgery so he could play in the post-season, and nearly dragged the team to a win tonight with two no-doubt home runs with five RBIs. It won't be remembered, of course, because that's not the way things work, but he deserved so much more.

> Ron Darling, in his bid to be the next Tim McCarver, talked about how it was a lucky break for the A's to lose C Geovany Soto early in this one, as if C Derek Norris was a better choice to handle Lester.

The Royals, of course, handed out batons at first base and more or less stole their way back into this game in the eighth and ninth innings, 90 feet at a time.

> My laundry blew two saves tonight, for the record. That's hard to do, but anyone who watched the last two months of the season knew that Sean Doolittle wasn't right.

> That might have been the first big hit of Albert Callaspo's like as an A, and, well, yeah. Moving on.

> Adam Dunn's career ends with a playoff game where he didn't start and didn't pinch hit, and I can't say I missed him. It's not like Sam Fuld didn't play his little heart out.

> Would Yoenis Cespedes have caught the ball that Fuld and Jonny Gomes turned into a triple in the 12th? Maybe. But since Lester blew the game tonight, yes, yes, a million times, yes.

> Royals' manager Ned Yost could have won this game with a lot less stress if he had just used his best pitchers in the 6th, when he had a lead to protect and chose instead to go to Yordano Ventura, who was clearly not ready for this level of pressure and inherited innings hijinks. But hey, better lucky than good. And speaking of luck...

> I stopped counting on how many lucky hits the Royals got in the late innings, or how the mere presence of Soto might have changed this game by a lot.

> Finally... I had given up on this A's team for weeks now, but of course, not really. That's not how baseball works, and it's not as if the Angels in the next round are the '27 Yankees.

They are, however, really going to look like them against the Royals.

Well, so much for baseball. Hans, bring on the funny!

NFL Week 5 Picks: There's Always Time To Panic

Yes, Yes It Is

The first month of the NFL season is in the books for most teams, and with the exception of the Cardinals and Bengals, every fan base has had a real good chance to lose their minds over how It's All Going Wrong. Here in the middle lands between New York and Philadelphia, you get to experience three fan bases worth of panic, all depending on what happened in the last game. Jet Fan is chanting for Mike Vick, Eagle Fan thinks it's the last days of the Reid Era all over again, when no OL could remain upright.. and Giant Fan is steadfastly denying that he was panicking after the first two weeks. It's what happens.

When you tout games, of course, your own sense of panic is never far away, but it's far more private... and when you start a week hot, like I did in Week 4, it feels like you need to get every last trick to make up for the bad weeks. Hopefully, I can keep things going, but if I don't, I promise to tear my hair out and curse the vagaries of fate that made me want to try to win a few bucks on this cursed hustle.

And with that... on to the picks!

* * * * *

Minnesota at GREEN BAY (-9)

Packer QB Aaron Rodgers was as good as his word last week in Chicago, telling Packer Fan to relax and let him, well, just go take of business against a defense that wouldn't treat him like a rag doll. All is still not well in Packer Land, as the running game hasn't really paid dividends yet, and they aren't really a good defensive team... but on this short week, they get the Vikings, who might have a gimpy QB in rookie Teddy Bridgewater, and can't possibly stay better in the running game with a couple of rookies. Thursday night games have been blowouts this year and a mess historically, so I'm going to go with the Hall of Fame QB and the home field, and lay the points.

Packers 34, Vikings 20

CHICAGO (+2.5) at Carolina

Another rough road game for the Bears, who lost their mojo when QB Jay Cutler couldn't keep serve against Rodgers last week at home. They get an angry Panther club that got taken to the woodshed by Angry Steve Smith Sr. last week in Charm City. The Panther defense really isn't the same now that Greg Hardy is not around, and if the Bears don't turn it over, the Panthers won't be able to keep pace, especially with all of their name brand RBs ailing.

Bears 30, Panthers 24

CLEVELAND (+1.5) at Tennessee

Good time for the Browns to catch the Titans at home, what with the injury to QB1 Jake Locker, and the existence of QB2 Charlie Whitehurst. The men from Ohio are also coming off a bye, have a run game that travels, and can get after it on defense. It will be tight for a while, and then really not.

Browns 24, Titans 13

ST. LOUIS (+7) at Philadelphia

Way too many points to give away to a good defense that's coming off a bye, especially against a 3-1 Eagles squad that's been more lucky than good. Look for the Rams' defensive front seven to wreck havoc for several quarters, and the offense to maybe even take a lead against the very pliable linebackers and secondary, until things change with a turnover or special teams play... all of which is saying this will be a cover or worse for the road team. Oh, and don't kid yourselves, Eagle Fans: with the resurgence of the Giants and Cowboys, this is absolutely a must game. And one that will be far too difficult for comfort.

Eagles 27, Rams 24

Atlanta at NY GIANTS (-4)

Why the lack of love for Blue? They've got long rest from the TNF DC Beatdown, have played two very solid games on offense, and are deep on defense, especially in the secondary. Against a Falcon team that's only good when playing from ahead, they'll bend but not break, and score often enough to eventually make this one comfortable. The over is 50.5; take it.

Giants 34, Falcons 27

TAMPA (+10) at New Orleans

The Bucs usually play the Saints tough and physical, and after four games of malfeasance, I'm not sure the Saints are really a good team anymore. I'd probably regret this, especially if Bucs QB Mike Glennon can't avoid turnovers, and the Saint home crowd gets to wilding... but the Bucs didn't fold after blowing an early lead in Heinz Field last week, and that place gets pretty loud, too.

Saints 23, Bucs 20

Houston at DALLAS (-6)

OK, Cowboys, I give: your defense is mediocre rather than a train wreck, and that's all it needs to be when the opposition is turning it over and RB DeMarco Murray is the best in the league. Neither condition will hold through to the playoffs, or maybe even get Dallas there, because Murray will get hurt and Dallas is already working deep into the depth chart in the secondary, but it's not as if the banged-up Texans and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will be able to take advantage. So long as the Cowboys are patient and QB Tony Romo stays as far away from DL JJ Watt as humanly possibly, they'll win and cover.

Cowboys 26, Texans 17

Buffalo at DETROIT (-7)

Consider, for a moment, the recent history of Buffalo QB. EJ Manuel, Thad Lewis, Jeff Tuel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Trent Edwards, Brian Brohm, J.P. Losman, Kelly Holcomb... and, well, that's the last ten freaking years. It's been ten years since Drew Bledsoe gave them anything close to a credible starter, and next up on the chuckle parade is Kyle Orton, who cared so much about continuing in the NFL that he pretty much quit a clipboard job for Dallas in the summer, before the Bills paid through the nose to give them a Manuel option. His first assignment is a road game in Detroit, in a loud dome, against a defensive line that's talented enough to bully up bad teams at home. Good luck with that.

Lions 27, Bills 16

Baltimore at INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5)

Colts QB Andrew Luck has been historically productive since that MNF meltdown against my Eagles, though it has been against Tomato Can Row, aka the AFC South. This week, he gets the presumably frisky Ravens, fresh off their clowning of the Panthers. I don't like either of these teams against a decent opponent on the road, which means I'm laying the points with Indy. Besides, there's no way that Smith Sr. didn't use up four games of hate in the last game.

Colts 27, Ravens 20

PITTSBURGH (-7) at Jaguars

How do you figure the Steelers? Beat a presumably good Panther team on the road, lost to a presumably terrible Buc team at home, and extra rest be damned. Jacksonville approached competence last week for long stretches of the game in San Diego, but being at home won't help much when Yinzer Fan is such a road guy, and HC Mike Tomlin is too good at bounce back games to let this one get away. But man alive, are they going to regret that Buc loss later.

Steelers 34, Jaguars 20

Arizona at DENVER (-7)

The marquee game of the weekend, for my money, with the undefeated Cardinals going to Denver in a game where both teams, glory be, are coming off the bye. I like the Broncos to cover the number for one very big reason: TE Julius Thomas, who is one of the best in the league at his position, and gifted with a Cards' defense that struggles to cover ordinary TEs. QB Peyton Manning is going to use him early and often, and then take advantage when they overshift to take him away. And the Cards don't run it well enough to drain the clock and limit Manning's touches.

Broncos 31, Cardinals 20

KANSAS CITY (+6) at San Francisco

Here's a secret that's becoming less secret by the day -- the Niners aren't very good on offense. QB Colin Kaepernick isn't very exact, the OL struggles to keep the pocket clean, and the play-calling gets away from the running game way too easily. On defense, they can dominate a running game, but a mobile QB should give them issues, and the special teams have been below par. Add that up with a home field that isn't helping them very much, and I'm seeing all kinds of opportunity for the suddenly hot Chiefs, fresh off a MN smackdown of the Patriots. Also, wouldn't you expect Alex Smith's Vengeance to at least be worth a cover?

Niners 27, Chiefs 24

NY Jets at SAN DIEGO (-6)

This is one of those perfect spots for QB Geno Smith to bounce back and ruin me, but the Jets' secondary is just too weak right now to deal with QB Philip Rivers and his ridiculous accuracy. In the long run, the Chargers' lack of health at RB will be a major problem, but against a Jets' team that eats the running game and can't get enough push against passing, it's actually a benefit. Points in garbage time to boot.

Chargers 31, Jets 20

CINCINNATI (-1) at New England

The temptation here is to stay with the brand name and home team... but man alive, have the Patriots been bad. They also face an undefeated Bengals team, coming off a bye, while they face a short week after a brutal beatdown. You can judge these teams by the names on their jerseys, or the laundry involved... or you can look at the talent and the way they've been playing. It's time for the Bengals to put on their big boy pants and actually play to their talent level. (Besides, I own Brady in fantasy. He's not rebounding, people. I'm going to own him into the fires of Hell. You're welcome.)

Bengals 24, Patriots 13

SEATTLE (-7.5) at Washington

I know, I know, a lot of points on a road favorite with a huge travel schedule. But the Seahawks are coming off the bye, might be better at 18 of 22 starting positions, and have a defense that might make Slurs QB Kirk Cousins curl up into the fetal position. And when QB Russell Wilson gets a short field, he doesn't usually waste it.

Seahawks 27, Slurs 16

Last week: 7-5

Year to date: 25-34-1

Career: 513-534-40