Week 1 2011 NFL Picks: And So It Begins

Welcome back to the most entertaining coin flip pick'em column on the Web. Just like the last five years (gulp), we'll pick every game on the NFL schedule, and give you some reason why we're throwing our hard-earned money at the continuing pursuit of something less than futility. Besides, the fact that I'm telling you up front that these picks mean nothing should count for something, right?

And with that... on to the picks!

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New Orleans at GREEN BAY (-4.5)

The Thursday night kick off game might be one that's remembered all year, as it sets the tie-breaker between the last two Super Bowl champions, and the two presumptive favorites to represent the NFC in this year's event. It's also as good a place as any to bring up a meaningful point: whether or not the NFC has passed the AFC as a superior conference. I think it's highly likely, given the Colts' weakness and the Jaguars tossing their starting QB to the curb. Sure, the AFC East is better, but the South sure isn't, and the West for both sides is pretty meaningless. So it all comes down to the North, and whether the Pack beating the Steelers last year swings things. It just might.

As for this game, they rarely live up to the hype... but it's still hard to see this beyond a 70-point under. I like the Pack to force a turnover or two with their better pass rush, and in a game with this level of offensive skill player, 1 or 2 possessions will be all the difference.

Packers 34, Saints 28

BUFFALO at Kansas City (-5.5)

Do you really want to lay this much for a home favorite that will be lucky to win six games this year, and might be starting an utterly unknown backup QB due to the spectacular braincramp that is playing your starter in the fourth quarter of game four in the exhibition season? Yeah, there's no good way to go on this one, but in a confederation of dunces, just give me the team that's closer to whole. At least to cover, even with the strong Arrowhead help.

Chiefs 20, Bills 17

DETROIT at Tampa (-1)

This year's up and coming love team against last year's. Detroit is rarely good early in the year on the road, but you've got to love the way they've moved the ball in the fake games, looking for all the world like the first good team to come out of Motown in decades. Tampa is a solid club with a do-everything QB in Josh Freeman, and Legarrette Blount could blow this pick out of the water by exploiting the Lions' pass-rush first line. But I think they used up all of their good karma last year.

Lions 24, Bucs 21

ATLANTA at Chicago (+3)

It's hard to remember how this Falcons team was an actual home playoff favorite in the Final 8 stage last year. That was before the Packers eviscerated them for all the world to see, and all of the old doubts about how their talent level really wasn't all that came back to the fore. But if the Falcons have doubts after their playoff expert, it's nothing compared to what the Bears are going through. Special teams have been greatly reduced due to the new rules, the offensive line looks like the old-time turnstile routine, the coaching has purged all TEs, and the WR rotation seems directly opposite to actual talent management. A massive correction is coming, and it starts early.

Falcons 31, Bears 17

Philadelphia at ST. LOUIS (+5.5)

It's not just that I'm going to the game, dear friends, and that my laundry is 0-4 in the time since I've written this blog and attended games, home or road. It's that the Rams are actually kind of good, and all kinds of trouble on the matchup. Offensively, the Rams are going to keep things simple and run Stephen Jackson hard; I still don't know that this defense can do anything with a patient attack. Sam Bradford is smart and mobile enough to pop a seam route or two, and to work his backs and TE and remain patient. The offense hasn't had enough time work together, either at the skill players or especially the line. The special teams are in the feet of untested rookies. They'll be better later in the year, but right now? It's going to be a white-knuckle ride, and a very real upset possibility against a team that's going to have a loud dome and an overconfident opponent. Expect turbulence, rather than flight.

Eagles 24, Rams 20

Indianapolis at HOUSTON (-8.5)

Has any division opened itself up harder, in recent memory, then the AFC South has for Houston? Jacksonville just dumped its starting QB, Tennessee is playing a fossil in a new system, and the Colts have been a smoke and mirrors team for years, only now without the smoke thrower. I don't believe Peyton Manning makes this start, but even if he does, he's not going to be tackling Arian Foster, Ben Tate and Derrick Ward, who will put up 150+ yards easily on the Colts weak defense, en route to a surprisingly easy Week One win that will be the stepping stone for a season of ease. Until the playoffs, of course. Ride your Texans correctly, friends.

Texans 31, Colts 17

Cincinnati at CLEVELAND (-7)

Wow, that's a lot of points for the annual Ohio Toilet Bowl... but the Browns are actually sneaky good, and the Bengals might be the worst club in Christendom. Look for Andy Dalton to struggle mightily in his first game, and the fact that it's in the Dawg Pound isn't going to help matters one bit, either. The Peyton Hillis show gets renewed, but look for sneaky Rookie of the Year pick Greg Little to put up some numbers from the WR spot here, and dominate your league's Week One waiver wire.

Browns 27, Bengals 13

STEELERS at Ravens (-3)

It only seems like these teams play each other four times a year. Normally in this game, it's a simple matter of taking the Steelers to win if Ben Roethlisberger is healthy, and losing your lunch anyway because a 3-point spread is positively nut-breaking to try to achieve with these teams. This time around, the Steelers make a more emphatic statement, if only because it's early enough in the year for the dangerously old defense to still show teeth. In December, these fortunes may finally reverse, but Raven Fan has heard that song before.

Steelers 24, Ravens 16

TENNESSEE at Jacksonville (-3)

Wow, it's usully later in the year that you feel like it's hard to write anything about a matchup, but these two clubs are, how shall we say, advanced. Jacksonville just kicked David Garrard to the curb despite him being the best QB on the roster. Tennessee counters with fossil Matt Hasselbeck, who is trying to learn the metric system and Sanskirt in his spare time, along with a new offense where his only good target, WR Kenny Britt, is as apt to wear handcuffs as dominate a game. Woof, woof, woof. You can't even go with Best Running Back Wins, since Chris Johnson is rusty off a lockout and Maurice Jones-Drew has been hiding injuries.

So if it's a coin toss game -- as that 3-point home favorite BS line shows -- give me the coin toss score. But for the road team, since I don't believe in rust for CJ.

Titans 24, Jaguars 20

Carolina at ARIZONA (-7)

Cam Newton on the road? Gimme, gimme, gimme. Arizona's better on talent, has a QB that will move the sticks right now, and a sneaky good home field. The Larry Fitzgerald Comeback Year starts now, and Kevin Kolb will enjoy this Week One start a lot more than he did last year's.

Cardinals 31, Panthers 16

Seattle at SAN FRANCISCO (-6)

Wow, another big fat number for a home team that's not very good, but the magic that is Tavaris Jackson is that magical, folks. I'd like Seattle to cover here if WR Sidney Rice were healthy, since it's not as if Alex Smith can't botch a cover on his own, but RB Frank Gore won't let that happen, and neither will the home field. Besides, the difference between these teams is that when the Niners' terrible QB throws it to his safety blanket TE, Vernon Davis scores. For the Seahawks, Zach Miller just gets a first down. Something of a difference there.

Niners 24, Seahawks 10

NY GIANTS at Washington (+3)

Anyone willing to believe in John Beck or Sexy Rexy Grossman? How about Tim Hightower? The continuing legendary genius that is Mike Shanahan? No, I didn't think so. These teams always play each other tough and tight, and the Giants aren't going to be world-beaters, but Eli Manning has a way in nice September weather. Besides, as the sudden new Best Available Manning, he's going to step up. Until the winds start up, at least.

Giants 31, Redskins 20

MINNESOTA at San Diego (-9)

OK, this is just one home number too many. The Vikings will keep it close with QB Donovan McNabb not making the big mistake, RB Adrian Peterson reminding people of just how the Chargers lost the division last year, and the Vikings defense making enough plays to stay in it until late. Make sure you get to see this one; there won't be too many better instances of coaching wiping out talent. Also, Percy Harvin could bust a special teams score.

Chargers 24, Vikings 20

Dallas at NEW YORK JETS (-4)

Ah, September... when the leaves start to turn, the heat starts to break, the children go back to school and the nation overrates the Cowboys, because their skill players look purty and no one wants to think about mundane things like line play, coaching or back-end roster infrastructure. Dallas is a bad bit of business on special teams, still trying to convince people that Felix Jones is an actual asset, doesn't have enough in the secondary... and still getting a near neutral line, other than the home field advantage, against one of the Final Four clubs of last year. This might be the biggest bargain on the board in Week One, folks; grab it with both hands and smooch.

As for the New Yorkers, they'll throw it more than you think, make Miles Austin disappear, win handily and use the national spotlight to entertain some of the best brother-on-brother smack talk this side of a wrestling ring. On some level, don't you just have to love them?

Jets 27, Cowboys 16

NEW ENGLAND at Miami (+7)

Ah, the return of one of our favorite Kickoff Weekend pastimes; the dog Monday games that make you vaguely resent the return of football, since you are going to wind up staying up until the wee hours watching spectacularly uncompetitive games. I find it to be a great reminder of how the league isn't all hateful people gouging me blind for access to the game I love; it's also lots of games that no one should love.

New England wrecked Miami last year on special teams. This year, it will be done more with the ground game, the tight ends, and their defense. You'll excuse Miami Fan for not really noticing the difference.

Patriots 27, Dolphins 17

Oakland at DENVER (-3)

Ah, and here's the final fun bit: the return of the traditional Raider Colonic to finish the week. People have been running away in droves from the Bronco skill players for fear of Swiper John Fox stealing their value, but he's a smart enough coach to use his best weapons, especially against a Raiders team that's lost their stabilizing All-World CB. The Broncos got absolutely torched at home last year by the Raider ground game last year; this year, Darren McFadden will still get his, but not nearly enough to ruin the opener for the home fans. It won't be as close as the final score.

Broncos 31, Raiders 20

2011-12 Season: 126-128-15

Super Bowls: 2-3

Career: 407-405-15

Take These To The Bank With Your Foreclosure Notice: The FTT 2011-12 NFL Season Predictions

Do you read this blog and column for NFL acumen, or just to feel superior to the local hole-stuffer for his weak sauce Nostadamus act? Either way, it's your favorite read of the year. Let's get right into it, shall we?

NFC East

Philadelphia 11-5
Dallas 9-7
NY Giants 7-9
Washington 5-11

What no one wants to admit... this division isn't very good. My Eagles could be very solid or paper tigers, but the sad part is that either version winds up losing to the Packers, and they won't gel together fast enough to get a bye. I'm not counting on much from the Cowboys, who don't have a line. If the Giants had been healthy, they'd be the wild-card here, but the secondary is just too suspect. This might be the year that gets Tom Coughlin run, especially if the Jets continue to get all of the media run in the city. As for the Redskins, one of these years the entire team and region is just going to quit on the owner. Might this be the year?

NFC North

Green Bay 12-4
Detroit 9-7
Chicago 7-9
Minnesota 7-9

The truly terrifying thing about this Packers team is that they won it all with bench guys last year. Give them just ordinary health in the backfield and especially for tight end Jermichael Finley, and it's going to be a good day to keep them under 40 points a game in good weather. This is the NFL's best chance at a dynasty right now. I'm also liking the Lions to surprise with that defensive line and offensive weapons, and think the Bears and Vikings just have too many issues to contend.

NFC South

New Orleans 12-4
Atlanta 10-6
Tampa Bay 7-9
Carolina 4-12

And the #2 seed will be New Orleans, who have also reloaded on offense with health and a better year from Drew Brees. This also makes the Week 1 Thursday Night game a crazy important opener, since it could set home field between these teams, and home field for a Packer-Saints championship will decide things. Atlanta is going to be more dynamic, and the Bucs will slide back despite being more or less the same team. Carolina will have a pulse, but little else.

NFC West

St Louis 9-7
Arizona 8-8
San Francisco 6-10
Seattle 4-12

The top two teams in this division will actually be OK, but struggle with protection issues and not travel well. The bottom two are going to be hard to watch, especially Seattle. And as usual out here, none of this is going to matter in the slightest.

AFC East

New England 13-3
NY Jets 12-4
Miami 6-10
Buffalo 4-12

It hurts to give these two shrinking violets a 25-7 record, but the talent levels are just that high, and the lockout madness year is going to skew heavily towards teams that know their identity already. The Jets are going to continue to be the second choice here from just not having the QB necessary for top-shelf excellence, but this is the kind of race where drafting on the leader might be the better play. Count on a more run-heavy approach for the Pats than past years, and the bottom of the division to be as irrelevant as always.

AFC North

Pittsburgh 11-5
Baltimore 10-6
Cleveland 8-8
Cincinnati 3-13

The repeat rivalry happens in the North, where the teams mirror each other with the same weakness at QB keeping the second team back. Watch out for Cleveland to sneak in and make some trouble here, as QB Colt McCoy understands his limitations and works well in a system, and the defense is starting to show some teeth. Cincy might be the worst team in the entire league, let alone the division.

AFC South

Houston 11-5
Indianapolis 8-8
Jacksonville 7-9
Tennessee 6-10

Congrats, Houston: the division is finally yours with Peyton Manning turning 35 and brittle, and the rest of the Colts turning paper-thin. Too bad you will be the 2011 equivalent of the Falcons: an untested playoff entity that wilts in the spotlight. Jacksonville is always closer to .500 than you'd expect, and the Titans might surprise in the first year post-Jeff Fisher, but the QB/WR issues are still going to hold them back.

AFC West

San Diego 11-5
Denver 7-9
Kansas City 6-10
Oakland 5-11

Speaking of paper champs, look no further than the Chargers, who benefit from being the only competent folks in a clown college, and will host and lose a playoff game due to their pressure-free defense, weak running game and meh special teams. People will blame Norv Turner, but it's really management that's to blame. Denver will challenge under John Fox but not have the defense, and the bottom of this division is competitive but not intelligent.

NFC Wild Cards: Atlanta and Detroit
AFC Wild Cards: NY Jets and Baltimore

Wild Card Weekend (yes, this is three out of four road teams winning)
Philadelphia beats Detroit, Atlanta beats St. Louis, Jets beat San Diego, Baltimore beats Houston

Divisional Playoffs:
Eagles beat Saints, Packers beat Atlanta, Patriots beat Baltimore, Jets beat Steelers

Conference Championships:
Packers beat Eagles, Jets beat Patriots

Super Bowl
Packers beat Jets

NFC MVP - Drew Brees
AFC MVP - Tom Brady
NFC Rookie of the Year - Julio Jones
AFC Rookie of the Year - Greg Little
NFC Defensive Player of the Year - Clay Matthews
AFC Defensive Player of the Year - Darrelle Revis
NFC Coach of the Year - Jim Schwartz
AFC Coach of the Year - Gary Kubiak

Fire away with your own in the comments, but remember... the Internet is forever!

FTT Off-Topic: The Season Of Flood

As always with FTT O-T, this isn't sports. Enjoy or not.

In the first 52 years that the house that I own, there were, as far as I could tell from an extremely thorough search of the premises, no floods in the basement. It was bone dry when I probed every inch of the foundation, didn't have anything from the home inspection, nada. It wasn't finished. and had any amount of asbestos tiles that were a problem, but in terms of finishing the mess and making livable space out of it, it was good to go.

In the first 4 years that I owned the house, there were no leakage issues in the basement. Not a one. So shortly after I moved in, we had it finished, carpeted, and used as the Man Cave. Put in a decent sized screen, loaded it up with a PS3, got the Web working down here and lo and behold, it's where the vast majority of FTT has been written.

Last year, the area got hit with a massive snowstorm, dumping some 25+ inches of snow in a week between two major storms, or more than we usually get in a year. This eventually manifested itself in frozen gutters melting over the pull-up rear access door, and voila, flood. Well, that well and truly sucked, but a once in a lifetime storm is just going to happen in your lifetime, and we reworked the gutter to make sure it didn't freeze again. We also replaced all of the carpet and more or less ate a $2K loss.

Two months ago, my eldest notices some moisture in the back of the room. Faulty pipe fitting on a pipe leading from the toilet. We take up the better part of a bucket of water from the ground. Kind of annoying, but a two-hour repair at most, and no structural issues. So.

Seven weeks ago, one of my regulars brought over a second AC unit to use during a poker game. It dumped water all over the area it was used in, and I wrote about that at the time. Not thrilling, but, um, well, I do own a dehumidifier and fans. So. Fixed in about five hours of work.

Four weeks ago, we have a strong week of storms and several inches of rain, all at once. Now the flooding is in three different spots, and takes about 72 hours of concerted effort to recover from. We replace the entire gutter system above the area to make it wider and longer, and chalk it up to me not cleaning out said system.

The day before the hurricane, I clean out the gutters for the whole house, and cross my fingers. The basement stays dry for the first six hours of the storm, then gives up around 2am, and the next 2 days are spent drying out in, well, all of the places we dried out before. This is, of course, a couple of weeks ago.

Five days ago, just before leaving for a Labor Day weekend off at Knoebels (a great old-school amusement park area in Elysburg, PA, which is to say the Poconos), my washing machine malfunctions and floods the draining sink. Well, joy. The contractor who I'm paying for his retirement (in, to be fair, slow and very reasonable steps) comes by, drains it with his thoroughly professional Shop-Vac, and shows me what I thought was the filter wasn't the filter, and here's how you clean that. So be it.

We go to Knoebels. We have a mostly great time; the eldest starts to enjoy wooden coasters, the younger shows a fondness for driving, we're up there with friends and family and getting lots of exercise and thrill rides in. When, around 9pm last night, the floods come in. Knoebels is littered with signs that show you how high flood waters have come in past years, but being in a situation where instant 4" high rivers develop under cloudburst thunder and lightning certainly brought the vacation to a thrilling close. It took us a long time to somewhat safely navigate our way to the car, then get back to the hotel, and more time after that trying to get laundry and possessions dry enough to take home and clean properly.

Which is, well, what we try to do this evening. But remembering my handyman's instructions and not wanting to run afoul of the filter problem on the washing machine, I open it up... and yuck, water running all over my floor. I tighten it back up and close the plate, start a load of laundry and hit the bathroom. I'm there for longer than anticipated -- let's just say flooding continued in other areas, and leave it at that -- and when I come out of the stall?

Yup, you guessed it. Flooding from the filter not being absolutely perfectly tied down before I started the load, so a fresh flooding situation and three hour cleanup.

Now, I'm not a particularly religious man, or someone with a strong interest in The Iliad. So if any of you are, please let me know how to appease JHVH-1's Noah issues, or what I need to do to pay off Poseidon. Because I'm really getting tired of using my freaking Shop-Vac this much, and I've already got enough jobs beyond full-time unpaid basement drainage engineer...

Fantasy Football 2011: Undervalued Tight Ends, Defenses and Kickers

First things first -- the only part of this list you should really care about is the tight ends, and if you are giving this the same amount of time that you are running backs, wideouts and QBs, you are missing the boat. Go spend more time on the real part of the draft: this is the sucker play part of the draft, and you can safely pass until the final three rounds this year, then play the waiver wire and get good production. But that's not what the attention to detail crowd wants to hear, and shaving a few points here and there is a win, so...

Tight Ends

Undervalued

1) Zach Miller. Well, it's not as if he hasn't proven that he can get points with a frankly terrible QB at the controls. Miller benefits from no other real possession receiver in the offense, a team that's going to be throwing it a lot from being down, in a weak division. There's really nothing to dislike here, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he winds up as a top 3 performer when it's all said and done. Just don't count on a ton of touchdowns, because that would involve Tavaris Jackson throwing touchdowns. 1,000 yards and 4 TDs.

2) Vernon Davis. Two years removed from a 13-TD year, the best deep threat in the game at TE returns for another year of discount love because no one believes his QB is worth a damn. Despite the fact that, well, the last 1900 yards and 20 scores have been from the same terrible QB. He's 27, in the prime of his career, in a weak division and with a club that starts head cases at wideout. Grab him with both hands, start him every week, and watch him bring down his first 1,000-yard year with 10 scores.

3) Owen Daniels. The last time he was healthy, he was on pace for 1,000 yards and 10 scores in the high-powered Texans offense. This year, he's healthy again, the Texans have instability at RB with Arian Foster's hamstring issues, and the very slight deterioration that is Andre Johnson getting older. I like him for a big bounce back if he can stay healthy, and 800 yards and 6 scores even if he can't.

Overvalued

1) Dallas Clark. First, you get to buy into 35-year-old Peyton Manning and his health issues. Then, you've got to ignore his continuing health issues. Next, you get to skip over the fact that Jacob Tamme gave them 90% of what he does for a fraction of the money last year, and even if things to well for the Colts this year, they'll want to conserve the resource. Add it all up, and you get a guy that some people rank as the #2 TE in fantasy, delivering 700 yards and 5 scores in an injury and time-share riddled year. Stay far, far away.

2) Todd Heap. Proof that the NFC West does not heal all ills. Heap's a safe target for a QB that goes to the TE, but he's long past his expiration date, and the line is too shaky to send him out too often. I can't see him staying healthy, getting enough targets to matter, or being an every week start... and that's where he's getting drafted. Let someone else go after him; he'll be on the waiver wire before the end of the year with his 500 yards and 5 scores.

3) Jason Witten. In two out of the last three years, he was a red zone pariah... so why do we think last year's 9 scores are the new norm? He's also 29, in an offense with a good second TE and a pretty terrible offensive line. The slow erosion begins this year, with 700 yards and 4 scores, and some weeks that you'd rather have Martellus Bennett.

Defenses

Undervalued

1) Detroit. This might be the best defensive line in the game, and they get four games against Jay Cutler and Donovan McNabb. They've also got an offense that's going to put points on the board, giving the defense the chance to pin the ears back and rush the QB. There's a lot to like here, and you don't need to call them out before the FA portion of the program. Mix and match them, and enjoy them at home in a loud dome against weak QBs. This is an 8-8 team with a lot of good moments this year.

2) San Diego. The AFC West is looking even worse than usual, with the Raiders falling apart, the Chiefs hurt, and the Broncos going to conservatism. They won't be good in another year or two because AJ Smith has well and truly lost the fastball, but for now, the remnants of the team that never was will pay off handsomely.

3) New England. Don't look now, but the Empire spent on defense this last year, and might just get something out of Albert Haynesworth. The secondary got a lot better last year and won't stop improving, and the only thing that was wrong was that they didn't get to the passer. This year, that will change, and the offense will run more than usual to take time off the clock. It's no fun to root for them, but they'll make you money.

Overvalued

1) Pittsburgh. Surprisingly old, these guys are only special when Troy Polamalu is in the lineup, which he increasingly isn't. People will still pay as if they are the best unit in the business, and they might be... for the first two months. But in the fantasy playoffs, they'll let you down, especially if you paid too much for them. And you'll have to.

2) Baltimore. As always, they are the downmarket copy of the Steelers, all the way down to the brilliant safety that can't stay on the field. Ray Lewis is more bluster than player, and you can run on them now; if you give up yards to Cedric Benson, you are not an elite run defense. They'll score some points this year, especially against the Bengals, but they aren't worth their position.

3) New York Giants. I have no idea why anyone would be drafting this team right now. Turnstiles and street agents at corner in a division where 4 out of 6 division matchups will terrify, and not nearly enough pass rush to compensate, because there's not enough pass rush in the world to compensate for this secondary. They might do it with smoke and mirrors for four to six weeks, but then the roof will cave in. This team will be on your waiver wire by November.

Kickers

Undervalued

1) Ryan Longwell. Minnesota will move the ball more than last year, and Donovan McNabb has always been a little too cautious in the red zone for the benefit of anyone but his kicker. Besides, dome kickers are always a good idea in the playoffs.

2) Rob Bironas. The better Janikowski, since he gets the long shots and actually makes them. Now that the Titans have signed Chris Johnson, they'll move it enough for figgies.

3) Matt Bryant. Atlanta's going to score some points this year, folks; lots of them. They'll move the ball, they'll keep drives alive with more passing on early downs, and they will.. stall in the red zone, because Tony Gonzalez is fading, and so is the run game. Lots of chip shot field goals in a dome? I'm sold.

Overvalued

1) Sebastian Janikowski. Guys like the long field goal potential, but year after year he just doesn't get enough chances to matter. Pass.

2) Alex Henery. This just in: the Eagles aren't going to be a pinball machine this year. They'll actually be better on defense; the offense will be, thanks to the rebuilt line, a work in progress. And rookie kickers miss a fair amount. There are better options.

3) Adam Vinatieri. He's old, they don't give him deep shots, and the offense isn't what it used to be. Avoid the name; he's waiver bait.

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And with that, folks, I wish you a good draft and a happy Labor Day; it's time to take some time off from the double shift jobs and single shift blog. See you next week; stay safe out there.

Fantasy Football 2011: Under and Overvalued Running Backs

Undervalued

1) Ray Rice. Sure, he's burned you in the past, with Willis McGahee taking all of the goal line love, and late-season matchups with Pittsbrgh just providing no end of heartache. But if you've got a top pick in a serpentine draft this year, who else would you rather have? Rice's handcuff is the ancient Ricky Williams. His fullback is Vonta Leach, who oesn't touch the ball and might be the best in the business and clearing a whole. His offense is going to move the ball, and he's going to get you over 2,000 yards from scrimmage, since he's a key member of the passing game. He's reasonably durable, in the prime of his life, going to score 12 times this year, and his team's best player. Draft him in the top five, get the best numbers.

2) Peyton Hillis. Last year's out of nowhere stud back gets the healthy dollop of skepticism from too-smart players, with concerns about being able to handle the load, love for Montario Hardesty to poach numbers, and the sense that the Cleveland attack is going to grow another dimension any day now. I'm not seeing the hate. Hillis didn't really run down last year so much as he just ran into good defenses; that won't happen all year. He's a true dual threat that doesn't leave the field near the goal line, and there's damned few of them in the league, really. And if the Browns get a dimension or two this year, that just means more drives where he doesn't leave the field for a punt right away. Bank on him for 1,600 yards and 10 scores.

3) Cedric Benson. Don't get me wrong; he sucks out loud, on ice, in a closed room and in church. But 300+ carries is hard to find these days, because intelligent NFL teams don't do that, and when you are starting rooks all over the skill position places, the mule back is a reasonable way to take time off the clock and the game in sight. And with more and more teams moving away from heavy running back attacks, the Bengals actually become someting of a novelty. Cedric the Jailhouse Entertainer will deliver 80 yards a game a score every other, which rolls out to 1,500 and 8. Just don't watch him play.

4) Reggie Bush. Is he really going to tun into a guy that gets 15 carries, 5 catches and 100+ yards a game from scrimmage? No; the division is too hard for that, and expecting health at this point is asking a lot. But a vengeance year of bg games against weak opponents, with lots of run time while rookie Daneal Thomas figures out the playbook and pass protection? Oh yes. Take down 1,500 yards from scrimmage and 8 scores, and don't be afraid of Chad Henne killing him; even the worst QBs can complete a dump off.

5) Beanie Wells. Well, who else are the Cardinals going to give the ball to? The last back standing is going to take advantage of the Cardinals actually having a QB this year, and with Larry Fitzgerald on the outside, he'll never face eight in the box. So long as he doesn't put the ball on the ground (a lot), he's going to get enough touches to wind up with 1,200 yards and 8 scores, with clear starts and stops along the way.

Overvalued

1) Arian Foster. Everything came together for this out of nowhere back last year, and he delivered huge results for a Texans team that played to his strengths. Oh, wait, you mean this isn't the Steve Slaton brief for 2009, but an entirely new overvalued first round pick that's going to destroy your team? Foster was always going to stumble this year with a healthy Ben Tate starting to work out a timeshare, and TE Owen Daniels getting back to speed in the red zone. Now, throw in a reoccuring hamstring problem, the lifelong problem that is his handle (look back at his college career; he puts the ball on the ground a lot), and the ton of film that opponents have of the Texans running game. This way lies third round production in the first round -- 1,200 yards from scrimmage and 6 TDs.

2) Matt Forte. Take a look at Chester Taylor's numbers from last year: they were beyond putrid. Now take a look at the vengeful stylings of Marion Barber, who Bear Fan is going to go all soft boy over near the goal line. Finally, toss in a special teams that got neutered by the NFL, which means more long fields, more playing from behind, and more staying in to block to keep Jay Cutler alive. 1,300 yards and 7 scores, which is not what you drafted.

3) Knowshon Moreno. The current regime didn't pick him, doesn't see who he's anything approaching special, and won't be playing to win game after Halloween. So last year's disappointing 1,150 yards from scrimmage and 8 TDs isn't happening again; more like 900 and 5, and a lost job. It's not going to work out for him in this town.

4) Pierre Thomas. I'd get into this, but it's simple; he can't stay healthy and the Saints have real options now. You can do better.

5) LeSean McCoy. Love his talent, hate the fact the Eagles are going to spread ti around and limit his touches. Remember, Andy Reid spent a decade cuckolding your Brian Westbrook pick, too....