The Magic's Trick

When you sit down to watch the Magic try to end the Cavaliers season tonight, they are going to look, to the non-NBA obsessed eye, like a lot of other basketball teams. But they aren't. Here's why.

What you have with the Magic is something of a unique hybrid that straddles a middle ground. On the far left side of the spectrum (yes, everything eventually goes back to politics here), you'd have a team like Phoenix -- fast shots, three pointers, run your opponent into the ground with superior conditioning and score easier points than them; the signature play here is a three in transition as a soul-crushing unequal trade for the opposition's hard-won deuce.

The downside of that approach is that the defense usually falls to pieces, because the coaching staff needs to spend all of their time getting the players to recognize good shots and forget their own numbers, despite the fact that compensation is based on numbers. Also, it's a team based on jumpers, and when they aren't falling -- particularly in half-court grind games, or late in a series when the legs aren't there anymore -- you lose. When this kind of team works, they are a joy to watch, and beloved by fans as if they were a champion, even though they almost never are.

On the far right side of the spectrum would be an old-school walk-it-up power team, like the Shaq and Kobe Lakers, the Billups-era Pistons, and on some level, the Spurs. Here, you stress the importance of every possession and try to make sure that you are always taking more shots than your opponent with superior rebounding and ball-handling; you also get to the line more. This kind of team is more consistent and less explosive, and the downside is that talent acquisition and evaluation is harder, because fewer elite-level players really want to play like this.

Even when it works, it's not very pleasing to the eye, and whether you like it or not, there's a level of artistry to pro hoop, especially among the best and most highly compensated, that has to be indulged. If you don't accommodate this to some extent, you get guys just executing the game plan, rather than being a fanatic about it, and in such differences, wars are won and lost. When this kind of team works, they seize games in the fourth like an anaconda, because the opponent is just unable to get points for 48 minutes against this kind of relentless pressure.

So here is the Magic, and to the naked eye, they look like the Shaq and Kobe Lakers, in that Dwight Howard resembles nothing more than a young and lithe Shaquille O'Neal. His hands aren't as good, but he's a better leaper and more committed on defense; he's also been better at the line, so that you aren't as afraid of using him late in games. It's not a perfect match, but it's 90 to 95% of the way there, and Howard's demeanor is also a good match for Shaq, in that he alternates between determined bulldozer to foul-prone flake.

But he has no Kobe. Hedo Turkoglu is a point forward with a good passing eye and fourth quarter confidence. Rashard Lewis is a matchup problem small forward who is very good from distance, but prone to giving you absolutely nothing if his jumper isn't falling. Neither has Kobe's all-around game, the ability to finish in a game and mood-altering way, or the curse/gift for scoring 1-on-5 if his teammates aren't bringing it.

In the backcourt, the similarities to the Shaq champions really falls apart. None of the Magic guards are the kind of oversized defensive stoppers that the Shaq teams employed. Instead, they are guys that can create their own shot off the dribble more than creating for others, and they all push the tempo. No one calls them tough, or defensive-minded, though they actually are, at least this year.

So are the Magic closer to the Suns-Kings axis? No... because those teams are, by necessity, defined by their point guards, who keep everyone involved and positive by meting out the opportunities to shine, like a conductor. The Magic have no one like that.

They also, and this is really where they aren't like any championship-level team I've seen, do not have a key player who you can neutralize as a tipping point to victory. When Howard is unavailable due to suspension or foul trouble, it makes for better ball movement on offense. When Turkoglu can't find the range, Lewis has a game that can compensate, and vice versa. Sporadic explosions from the guards -- today Rafer Alston, yesterday Courtney Lee, tomorrow Mickael Pietrus -- seem to come easily, because the opposition just has no one they can play off, and in pro hoop, unlike football or baseball, good offense always beats good defense.

When the Magic aren't committed, they look like a soft Euro team, just another in a long line of hoopsters that feel like a passing dome team in football -- i.e., a regular season mirage. But what they are really are, this year and this playoff, is a covert defensive hammer.

Cleveland came into this series as the lockdown masters of opposing three-pointers; after four games, that reputation lies in a smoking ruin. Cleveland has the best player on the floor and the planet, and honestly, I don't think I've ever seen a player better than LeBron James in the first four games of the series. He's a defensive monster, and breathtaking on offense. When he isn't scoring, he's generating some of the easiest looks you'll ever see in a playoff game. His teammates aren't hitting them, not because they are terrible basketball players, but because, despite the easy road in the first two series, their legs have been taken away by this Borg-like team from central Florida.

I've never seen anything like it before, and I don't think we're going to see it for very long, like, say, this year's Celtics. (That team was doomed as soon as they signed Marbury, Garnett injury or no Garnett injury, and now that he's in a career-ending way with that knee, they are a 50-win and timber mode, because Allen and Pierce can't stay this good. But I digress.)

The Magic will tune out Stan van Gundy soon enough. When Howard develops more of a post-up game (honestly, what he's got now is kind of embarrassing for a guy with this level of publicity; it's Ben Wallace-esque) and Jameer Nelson returns, the balance will be thrown out of whack. They also won't be able to keep all of the pieces over time, and the loss of someone like Pietrus could be as problematic for them as, say, the Celtics losing James Posey last year.

But for the time being, they are fascinating, dangerous, and could have the highest ceiling of any of the final four teams. For a club that looked vulnerable in the first round to a middling Sixers team, heart-free against the D-league deep Celtics, and the near-universal fast out against the Association's best regular season team with playoff rest and home court... well, it's all unprecedented stuff.

And no, I'm still not really believing it myself, because my faith in James is nearly absolute.

But with just one more win, they'll prove me, and the rest of the world outside of central Florida, definitively wrong.

At least for this year.

Celtics-Magic Game Five: The Magic Of Choking

Tonight in Boston, the Celtics had one of those nights where the defense wasn't very good, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo weren't good offensively, and they were giving meaningful minutes to Stephon Marbury because, well, they had to. The gym was dead, the crowd worried in that way that only a crowd watching Stephon Marbury can be.

And then the Magic went cold, with jaw-dropping misses on wide-open threes, the crowd got into it, and yes, you have seen this movie before.

With 2:30 left, Allen found Kendrick Perkins for a layup out of a scramble. The Magic looked utterly helpless on their next possesion, eventually settling for a Turkoglu turnover. Big Baby missed a wide open short one. Rafer Alston lost his mind for another turnover. Allen shook Turkoglu on a back pick for a catch and shoot three, and the 11-0 run gave the home team an 86-85 lead, their first since the first quarter. Good grief, why does anyone even watch the first 40 minutes of a Celtics game?

Out of the timeout, the Magic got a clean three look from Alston out of a scramble; he, of course, missed, and the Celtics got the team rebound. Rondo missed the rim from 30 feet for a shot clock violation, and the refs missed the call and decided to give the home team the ball anyway. Yeesh. TNT ran multiple replays that showed the ball not hitting the rim, but what the hell, it's the Celtics, give them the ball and the full 24 second clock. When do they ever get any other break? Though, to be honest, I'm not sure the Magic will ever score again, so it wasn't exactly a game-changing call.

After a scramble drill bad possession, Allen missed from mid range, but the Celtics got the board again, and the game got closer to over. With 8.5 seconds left, the Magic put Eddie House on the line, and he hit both. Pierce wrapped up Lewis to prevent a trying three, and after the Dallas Game Three Tragedy, it's not like he didn't do it with authority. Lewis hit both, Allen responded with two makes, and there's nothing better than the last 10 seconds of an NBA playoff game, is there?

The Magic then put the final touches on this gift by barely getting the inbounds pass in to Dwight Howard, of all people, with 5.9 left. He hit the first, intentionally missed the second, but Davis controlled the rebound and hit his free throws -- the Celtics went 21 for 21 from the line tonight -- and that was that. Your final was Celtics 92, Magic 88, and the home team takes the 3-2 lead.

Game Six in Orlando? Well, if the past is any precedent, they'll air mail this and go to a Game Seven, which they will, of course, win. But after the exceptional fold that the road team gave tonight, you do have to wonder if they're even going to bother playing Game Six. After all, you're just going to lose Game Seven on the road, so why bother?

Celtics-Magic Game Four: Next Stop, Game Seven

Tonight in Orlando, the Celtics evened their series with the Magic, and in all likelhood, won it. That might sound premature, given that the Magic have led for more of these games than the Celtics, and a last-second 1-point win in a game where you outshoot the opposition by 13 percent from the floor doesn't sound like something to draw a lot of conclusions from. But I've seen the Drama Celtics just enough to know that they aren't losing Game 7 at home, and there's no way the Magic are going to win the next two games. So, you do the math. (You also trust that the Cavs will avoid such drama, especially when they will have a week's worth of extra rest and home court.)

Tonight in the minutes that mattered, Courtney Lee made Eddie House disappear, Brian Scalabrine was helpless, Big Baby Davis continues to be the biggest flopper since Vlade Divac, and the Magic were somehow in the game despite Paul Pierce having the range, and shooting under 40% for their own damn selves. With 8:58 left, Pierce picked up his fifth in a ticky-tack play, and after a make, it was 83-80 and serious worry time for the visitors. But eventually the Magic went back to players like JJ Redick and Anthony Johnson, and that's not exactly a recipe for the Eastern Conference Championship.

With four minutes left, Lee made a nice hesitation jumperr to get things tight, but Rondo was able to draw Howard's fourth foul on an air call. After a single make, it was back to a three point game. Rondo nearly had the steal, but Lee recovered and drained another mid-range shot to cut it to one. Pierce got to the rim but got no call, and Lee missed the go-ahead -- the kind of shot you need to make -- but Davis decided to travel rather than try to shoot over Howard. With 150 seconds left, it was Celtics 91, Magic 90.

After the timeout, Howard missed the Magic's second chance to take the lead. An Allen miss from the corner gave the Magic the ball with two minutes left, and Boston had missed it's last seven shots. Lee's jumped was blocked, and for the third time, the home team didn't take the lead. Pierce missed on good defense from Mickael Pietrus, and Turkoglu's three-pointer clanged out, but not until Rondo failed to control it, giving the Magic possession.

After the timeout, the Magic actually tried some ball movement, and got Howard to the line. His struggles there are well documented, but after two makes, the Magic finally got the lead, with 50 seconds left, 92-91, for the home team's first lead in the second half. It only lasted for 17 seconds, as Davis made a huge bucket. Turkoglu's three pointer missed again, but Pietrus got the board (and was probably fouled), and the Magic called time with 16.7 to go.

Turkoglu has a reputation for fourth quarter greatness, but he's 0 for 5 in this one. Instead of going to Turk Iso, the Magic swing the ball to Lewis, who gets to the line against a Davis foul. Lewis is overpaid and has many holes in his game, but free throw shooting isn't one of them, and he makes both to give the home team the 94-93 lead with 11.3 seconds left.

The de riguer timeout -- doesn't Doc Rivers know that the only way to get Phil Jackson's reputation is to not call timeouts? -- gave us the opportunity to see Ray Allen's clutch bio, which to be fair, is extensive. Rondo feeds Pierce, who gets it to Davis, and Big Baby casually drains a line-drive jumper from 21 feet to win it. Yeesh. You can't blame the Magic too much for guarding Rondo, Pierce and Allen and losing to Davis from distance. But had they made any of those shots in the last three minutes, they might have had the margin for error to avoid a tied series on a last-second make. But then again, what should you expect from a team whose arena is named after Amway?

As for the men from Massachusetts, I'm clearly not a Celtics fan, but Lord, they do deliver the drama. We'll have three more games from them until it stops.

The Team That Can't Close Keeps Closing

Tonight in Orlando, the Magic took the series lead behind the two players that turned the Sixers series for them -- Hero Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis -- and the home team overcame the one-game suspension loss of Rafer Alston to thump the Celtics. Dwight Howard had 17 and 14 with 5 blocks in just 28 foul-plagued minutes, and the team actually increased the lead with him on the bench. They even got 11 points from Phantom of the Opera Courtney Lee, and held Ray Allen to 3 of 13, and Paul Pierce to 6 of 15. Your final was Magic 117, Celtics 96, and that's about how close it was.

Frankly, this series is starting to resemble Hawks-Heat, in that both teams can't seem to show up for the same game. And the final score could have been even worse if it weren't for another hot night from Eddie House, who went 6 of 7 from the floor and had 15 points in 19 minutes.

But if you really want to know what's going on here, it's simple -- the Celtics don't have the legs, and maybe at this point the heart, to play good defense every night. The Magic shot 60% from the floor tonight, and 50% from the arc. It also didn't help much that their bigs (Perkins, Davis, Scalabrine) combined for 14 fouls in 81 minutes.

There's also this: the Magic are said to have a big problem late in games, because they get scared to give the ball to Dwight Howard, for fear that he'll miss too many free throws. But this really doesn't work, because while Howard is a bad free throw shooter, he's not utterly helpless: he'll make 6 of 10, which is only a point or two worse for every ten shots than most of the other big men in the league. If you play Hack-A-Dwight, you're going to lose; that strategy really only works, if it works at all, if the shooter is sub-.500, especially late. If the Celtics want to win games here, they'll need to ramp up the defense and stop running up big deficits.

I still expect the Celtics to prevail in a long series; no matter how bad you look, one loss is one loss, and Allen and Pierce aren't likely to be MIA for two straight games. But at this point, the series has had 154 minutes, and the Magic might have been the better team on the floor for over 100 of them. If the Magic win Game 4, they will win this series.

A Few Questions for the Orlando Magic

Just what were you expecting to happen in the playoffs, and how many more times are you planning to fire Brian Hill? (For those keeping track at home, this makes two, though we can't imagine anyone really is keeping track of this.)

Let's see, our go-to guy (Dwight Howard) is an interior player with no real offensive game, we're highly dependent on people like Hedo Turkoglu, who was so tough in the playoffs that *Sacramento* let him go, and we're still holding out hope that Grant Hill will be healthy some day.

Shocking, utterly shocking, that the dominant playoff team of our era treated us like children in the playoffs.

Quick, fire the only coach in our history who has ever had success -- especially since we have no clear alternative to replace him with. That'll fix everything!