Thursday, December 8, 2016

FTT Off-Topic: I Have Bus Stop Questions

No More Sheltering Now
Bus stop, wet day
She's there, I say
Please share my umbrella

- There is no sharing an umbrella; there is just the option to make it 50% less effective by stretching a resource too far. In addition, you are empowering dependency and rewarding a lack of preparation. But from what's to come, this is just the tip of the iceberg.

Bus stops, bus goes
She stays, love grows
Under my umbrella

- "Grows"? This turned into porn with a quickness. At least they are using an umbrella for a modicum of decorum. Also, note that if the two of them were going to work in the morning, well, they've now blown off work to hump, and are probably doing it without protection, since who packs that sort of thing at the start of the day. Start the day with an STD from a rando. But let's go on.

All that summer we enjoyed it
Wind and rain and shine
That umbrella we employed it
By August she was mine

- You "enjoyed" it, regardless of weather condition? Tell me this isn't porn. Also, while "she was mine" could be taken as romantic conquest, but well, I believe that things are going to take a turn.

Every morning I would see her
Waiting at the stop
Sometimes she'd shop
And she would show me what she'd bought

- This all sounds innocent enough, until you consider the idea that the bus stop might not be in a commercial zone, and the implication is that the encounters are in the morning (since if it's later in the day and you didn't notice it was going to rain, that's even more evidence of a wastrel life). I can't shake the idea that what she bought... was not paid for in money. (Shudder.)

Other people stared
As if we were both quite insane
Someday my name and hers
Are going to be the same

- This, honestly, was the first domino in the line. You thought this was a meet-cute song, but the other commuters, rather than treating the encounter as if they were the extras in a delightful rom-com, know that something far more disturbing is going on. 

Also, those last two lines? 

WHICH NAME IS NOT SPECIFIED. 

WE ARE ALL FRED NOW.

That's the way the whole thing started
Silly but it's true
Thinking of our sweet romance
Beginning in a dew

- Insane bystanders that can't stop staring. The one name new world order. Porn under an umbrella, used regardless of weather conditions.

I do not want to do this dew.

Came the sun
The ice was melting
No more sheltering now

- Oh, there are no safe spaces in this song. No shelter at all.

Nice to think that that umbrella
Led me to a vow

- Note: vow does not need to mean matrimony. 

BLOOD, BLOOD, BLOODY DEW FOR MY LORD FRED.

Every morning…

- Oh, and it repeats, Groundhog Day style, in a purgatory where the bystanders are made to see what can not be unseen for all of eternity? My morning is made. 

Public transportation sucks.

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Week 14 NFL Picks: Real Football, Finally

Angel Time
Last week, the Packers beat the Texans in Green Bay, but that wasn't the most memorable thing that happened in that game. Rather, in glorious HD, we got our first action in snow for the year, and nothing's better than watching football games decided in a mix of elements that, well, no other major US sport goes to work in. It is even better when you, of course, are not in that mess.

That sort of thing is a great reminder that the season is now deep into its Meaningful Stage, with more and more teams starting to pull up on maximum effort, because at some point, human nature and the desire to be healthy for games next year takes over. There are a million little ways to ease up out there, from not trying on back-side blocks to ducks out of bounds, or with give up slides. Those business decisions lead to losses, especially in the hyper-close world of the NFL, where a handful of bounces can swing a game. This is the time of year when you have to read the body language of a team, rather than just its historic tendencies.

As always, the lines quoted here are current at the time of writing, but you should check on live NFL betting odds in case of movement like on the courtesy of William Hill online, especially with last minute injury news that can swing things by a point or more. As last week’s performance shows, we’re hitting our stride when the games matter.

And with that... on to the picks!

* * * * *

Oakland at KANSAS CITY (-3.5)

The Raiders looked like the AFC's best in last week's comeback at home against the Bills, with the conference's best offensive line, playmakers on the defensive line, and a growing sense of confidence that this is their year. The Chiefs, on the other hand, escaped Atlanta with a flukish win off a 2-point conversion interception return, and have injuries all over the field. So why am I taking the home team? Home field, vastly better coaching, and the sense that the Raiders just aren't as good as their won-loss record or momentum.

Chiefs 27, Raiders 20

PITTSBURGH (-1.5) at Buffalo

Going against some better instincts with this pick, as the Steelers haven't been good on the road, and Buffalo's world of trailer park crazy gives them a notable home field advantage. But that town isn't so far away as to not have sizable numbers of road tripping Yinzers in the crowd, and with the Bills' giving up hope on the road last week, I'm thinking a 30/70 kind of feel. It won't be pretty, but it will get done.

Steelers 23, Bills 20

DENVER (+1) at Tennessee

Continuing the run of Road Warrior Madness, it's the elite Denver defense doing what needs to be done against the AFC South's only club that you can feel remotely good about for the future. Too bad the offense isn't good enough to provide margin, and the future isn’t the present.

Broncos 22, Titans 20

WASHINGTON (even) at Philadelphia

Why anyone thinks the Eagles, who have been lifeless and devoid of defense against much worse attacks than what the Racial Slurs put out there, are due for a bounce back game, I will never know. The Slurs' also get after the QB in ways that will bedevil the Eagles' makeshift line, and they've got real WRs (like, um, that DeSean Jackson fellow) who might make rookie QB Carson Wentz looks less than overwhelmed right now. Then again, no franchise would be so dumb as to let Pro Bowl skill players walk with no return on investment. Or, at least, no franchise that you should ever root for.

Racial Slurs 34, Eagles 24

ARIZONA (+1) At Miami

Boy, did the Dolphins get exposed last week or what? Baltimore's complete trucking over the Marine Mammals made the entire enjoyable year go straight to jeopardy, and while the Cardinals aren't really in the playoff hunt, they'll fool themselves for another week after a winning trip to the land that global warming will ruin. It also doesn't hurt that they are one of the few road teams that can come to Miami late in the year and not suffer climate shock.

Cardinals 26, Dolphins 23

San Diego at CAROLINA (-1)

Can't go with all roadies, and while the Panthers looked terrible last week, they'll likely get back LB Luke Kuechly for this one, and that guy is their everything. I also suspect that the Charger pass rush won't be able to bring down QB Cam Newton often enough to stall the home team.

Panthers 27, Chargers 24

CINCINNATI (-6) at Cleveland

Maybe the Browns' best chance to avoid a winless year, what with coming off the bye, having home field, and the blood rival Bengals coming to town. The trouble is that Cincy won't sleep on this game, and the Browns just turn it over too much, especially after halftime, to keep the momentum going for 60 minutes. No team wants to be the 1 in 1 and 15.

Bengals 27, Browns 17

Chicago at DETROIT (-8)

The Bears have been frisky recently, with QB Matt Barkley providing just enough of a pulse that he's likely to keep cashing QB2 paychecks for a few more years. But on the road in a loud dome against the surprisingly potent Lions, the turnover bugaboo will re-emerge. Along with the fact that their defense is toothless.

Lions 31, Bears 20

Houston at INDIANAPOLIS (-6)

I hate having to lay this many points on a paper tiger team like the Colts, especially when they are on a short week of rest... but QB Brock Osweiler is just that much of a drag on the Texans, and their defense is too banged up to do major damage. The Colt offense will do enough to cover the number.

Colts 33, Texans 24

Minnesota at JACKSONVILLE (+3.5)

Maybe I'm overreacting to the Viking slide, or putting too much faith into Florida heat in December turning a road team into oxygen suckers. But even with long rest, the fact that you don't need to defend past 10 to 15 yards downfield against beyond conservative QB Sam Bradford and the Vikings’ banged-up OL just makes it too easy on the Jags to keep things punty. Look for the home team to make a few big plays, and those plays to be the difference.

Jaguars 19, Vikings 17

NY Jets at SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5)

Which team wants it less, or will exert less effort? Give me the home team with the extra day of rest, with QB Colin Kaepernick having a bounce back game, instead of the literally DOA Jets, who betrayed no effort at all in a MNF de-pantsing against the Colts. Even if the Jets were trying, this kind of road trip isn't easy, and it's not as if their fans are going to be inspired by this year to show up in foreign locales.

Niners 31, Jets 24

New Orleans at TAMPA BAY (-2.5)

While the Saints might be as good on talent and have more than a puncher's chance to win this game, they've never been very good in December road games, let alone against a surging Buc offense. The Bucs just keep winning games, and have an outside shot at the NFC West, one that seems to improve every week.

Bucs 27, Saints 24

Atlanta at LA RAMS (+6)

I'm under no illusion that the Rams are anything more than a frustrating also-ran, but at home, against a showing cracks Falcons unit, I think they cover the number. Besides, RB Todd Gurley has to break out with a big game, now that his fantasy owners are dead, buried, and bitter.

Falcons 24, Rams 20

SEATTLE (-3) at Green Bay

Third straight week has to be the charm for picking against the Pack, this time at home against the NFC's current #2 seed. The Seahawks keep alternating massive wins with road struggles, but I think they turn that tendency around here, especially with so many starting members of the Green Bay defense on the shelf. But I do have to note that I’m scared of this game, with Seahawks S Earl Thomas done for the year and talking about retirement.

Seahawks 31, Packers 27

DALLAS (-3) at NY Giants
 
The Cowboys are the best team in the NFC, and maybe the world. The sooner we all accept that, and the inevitable Cowboys Super Bowl win and multi-year dynasty with their rookie studs on offense cruising behind the best offensive line in football, the sooner we will all know that we are living in a world where all of our sins are coming due. It also doesn’t help that the Giants were well and truly exposed last week in Pittsburgh, with an offense that can’t run the ball, and a passing attack that revolves around a WR (Odell Beckham Jr.) that might be the easiest guy in the NFL to goad into idiocy.

Cowboys 26, Giants 20

BALTIMORE (+7) at New England

The Patriots have lost TE Rob Gronkowski, which makes the offense devoid of any margin for error. The men from Charm City are running the ball better, sustaining drives with WR Steve Smith doing work, and are just the kind of smashmouth outfit that tends to cover big numbers. Even in Foxborough.

Patriots 24, Ravens 20

Last week: 11-4

Year: 84-102-4

Career: 843-853-53

Sunday, December 4, 2016

Eagles - Bengals Diary

Just put it on the jerseys now
> With WR Jordan Matthews out, Nelson Agholor becomes the WR1 after being a healthy scratch, which makes no sense at all, but whatevs

> After winning the coin toss, Green takes the ball first, which makes no sense at all, but whatevs

> RB Wendell Smallwood goes left and nowhere for a loss of 2, then QB Carson Wentz is batted down on an attempt to TE Zach Ertz that would have gotten nothing

> 3rd and 12 is a 3 of 48 situations, and after a near pick on an attempt to WR Dorial Green-Beckham, that's 3 of 49 and a three and out

> P Donnie Jones gets off a bad kick, Orange starts at their own 47, and this is going sidewise with speed

> RB Jeremy Hill meanders for a yard, then QB Andy Dalton hits WR Brandon LaFell to move the sticks; too much of a cushion by CB/Scapegoat Leodis McKelvin

> DT Bennie Logan jumps to make this even easier, then Hill's got room to get 4

> 3rd and 1 to show that last week's inability to get off the field has carried over is a rollout strike to WR James Wright, who beats CB/Scapegoat Nolan Carroll for the big hit

> Hill for a yard to the 14, then Dalton evades pressure to throw it away against good coverage

> 3rd and keep it to a figgie is Dalton with time, uncalled DPI on LB Nigel Braham as FB Rex Burkhead goes down, and a blown should have been pick

> The idea that either of these teams has playoff hopes is comical at best

> K Mike Nugent, having a terrible year, will, of course, make one against my laundry; he connects from 32, and it's Orange 3, Green 0

> Touchback as Fox lets us know how badly the year has gone, then tricky formation on a give to Smallwood for 3; he gets it again as the left side does the job enough to get him 7 and a first

> Nice work by Smallwood to break a tackle for the first

> From the Green 35, blitz into a screen into a batted ball / near disaster; Wentz didn't disguise that play enough

> Batted ball, catch and near injury on a force to Agholor, and that's the third pass so far where Wentz is very lucky to avoid a pick

> After CB Adam Jones walks off, 3rd and 8 to actually keep the ball for once on a long distance is Wentz getting it with his legs

> Good plays are, of course, followed by bad, so G Isaac Seumolo false starts, then goes off

> Wentz to DG-B, who spins out of content to fall forward for 8

> 2nd and 7 from the Orange 49 is RB Darren Sproles from the pistol, no push from the line, loss of 2 and another not likely third down

> One of those plays that's either the figgie or punt is Wentz from the gun, blitz picked up, but the QB isn't tight enough to DG-B, who has it go through his tall hands because our WRs suck sour milk

> Jones punts, middling return to the Orange 19

> Hill loses 4 and looks sad, because he's on my fantasy team

> WR screen to Wright to get back the running loss, as LB Jordan Hicks closes well

> Quick tempo on third and 9, LaFell is ridiculously open in a bad zone, and that's 24 yards of simple

> Hill on a screen for 4, then hobbles off, because, once more, he's on my team

> Burkhead runs into his own man, leading to a 2 yard loss

> 3rd and 8 and can the expensive line ever get push is Dalton to WR Cody Core, who torches the bumbling Carroll all the way to the Green 5

> This is going to be a blowout, and this team looks DOA

> Hill to the 3 on tolerable dancing, then 3 wides, the defense not seeing obvious run, and the RB bursts in through the definition of uninspired defensive play

> Nugent connects the ever difficult PAT, and it's Orange 10, Green 0, and yeah, typical road "effort"

> Touchback, Smallwood for 2, Wentz pulls it down on open space and gets 6, and the resemblance to the Kansas City attack is striking

> 3rd and 2 is a power formation, toss to Smallwood, and the RB moves the sticks on pure quick

> Play action, plenty of time to throw, Wentz just misses his man high on a pass that looked like he was aiming it

> Sproles jukes for 2, and we've got that long third down that never works

> From the gun, long clock, time to throw and an actual catch against violence on a throw to DG-B; sticks move

> Quick out to Agholor for 5 yards, who didn't cry, drop it, commit a penalty or nothing on that play, so green shoots

> Two straight movement flags because T Allen Barbre isn't good, so, um, great

> 2nd and 15 is an actual snap and play, as Wentz takes Ertz for a middling 6 yards to make the third down conceivable

> 3rd and 8 from the Orange 48 is Wentz to TE Trey Burton, open on a slant, and that's competent line play and a good throw, so lovely

> From the Orange 33, Sproles for very little, then Wentz misses Barner on a covered cross, and the QB had men open deeper than that

> 3rd and don't turn it over or blow the figgie is a bad idea draw to Smallwood, and that looked all kinds of confused

> K Caleb Sturgis from 51 hits the upright, and the joy of being a fan of this laundry continues

> From their own 41, Hill for 3 on long spread, then loses a ton as DE Brandon Graham has this one diagnosed; not sure why Orange thinks a power back should be going sidewise so much

> 3rd and 11 is the line not getting there, Dalton finding WR Tyler Boyd, made worse by a late low hit by Graham, so just your garden variety 36 combined yards disaster play

> From the Green 24, Dalton tries LaFell, and CB Jaylen Mills is incompetent but lucky

> Screen to Hill gets 8, and he's better in the passing game than advertised

> 3rd and 2 is Hill failing on traffic; Orange quickly goes on 4th and 1, with Dalton not getting there on a sneak... but HC Marvin Lewis saves the day with a timeout

> So not only is my laundry losing today, it's losing on good coaching by a guy who is 0 for 7 in playoff games

> Nugent connects from 33, and so much for him having a bad year; my laundry came to town

> Barner takes a close knee as the STs have adjusted to the new normal of not making plays

> Green has 79 yards of offense and no points, but they've held the ball for longer than Orange, so yay

> Burton for 7, Smallwood for 5, actually looks OK

> Wentz has time in the pocket and is very lucky to avoid a pick, yet again; this one was telegraphed to Ertz

> Wentz misses DG-B as G Ron Brooks blows the stunt

> 3rd and 10 and shutout half beckoning is Wentz to Burton again, and he's outplaying Ertz by a lot

> Line is giving the QB way too much time for a scoreless half

> Quick tempo, then a bad ball to Smallwood, who has no one-hand skills

> Long clock, Smallwood for 3, then 3rd and 7 with yet another freaking false start penalty

> Green has the 3rd most flags in the NFL, so no, it's not just you noticing

> Wentz has DG-B wide open on an out with a clean pocket, but just plain misses him; terrible mistake and if you want to tell the story that the kid is regressing over the course of the year, I can't tell you otherwise

> Jones hits it deep, Orange will have bad field position to start

> Burkhead from an exotic formation for 15, because Not Hill is always the best Orange RB

> Orange to the 2-minute warning as the defense continues to suck not stop

> Burkhead gets 2 and out of bounds, setting up a possibly meaningful 3rd and 7; quick tempo, Dalton avoids pressure and converts, because this defense isn't going to make a single goddamned play today

> Dalton to Core for 8, no reason to start trying now, gentlemen

> Burkhead moves the sticks, Orange doesn't call time oddly, then Dalton finds LaFell for 8 as McKelvin barely holds on

> Lewis seems to want to have timeouts at the half

> Dalton incomplete, 31 seconds left, then Dalton to Boyd because every throw against McKelvin works

> From the Green 36, Dalton to TE Tyler Eifert, and the only reason why Orange won't score a touchdown on this drive is bad clock management

> False start on Eifert (drool?), then a simple toss to WR Alex Erickson to the Green 13, because why care now

> With 14 seconds left, Orange finally calls another timeout

> From the Green 13, Dalton to Eifert, and that's a touchdown against coverage by S Rodney McLeod that combined apathy with incompetence

> Nugent misses the PAT just to remind Orange fans that all is not well, as if it will matter to anyone

> Squib kick doesn't end the half, and rather than have his strong-armed rookie QB throw a Hail Mary, Pederson takes a knee, because being down 19 and kicking off to start the second means no extra effort

> Green can't even chase a kickoff properly

> Two meh plays for Orange, then a massive completion to Lafell, can't say I even reacted to it

> Textbook horse collar tackle by Bradham to give 15 extra yards because why not

> Orange feeding Hill now, because when you have a defense that is making no effort, a power back is really your best idea

> 3rd and 5 with one more chance to show pride is an easy score to Lafell, and honestly, feel free to fire people up and down the roster now

> After middling runback to Barner, Wentz rolls out and hits summer wonder WR Paul Turner, who goes for big sports radio call-in yards

> 4-yard jet sweep to Agholor, then the same play to Turner, who moves the sticks; in two plays, he leads the team with 51 receiving yards

> Wentz batted down again, then tipped and picked as he doesn't judge the pressure, and the chance of Green Shutout is still live

> Adding to the fun is a personal foul on Orange, who land on Wentz just to see if they can cause injury and make the year a total washout; this leads to post-whistle fisticuffs

> Hill for zero as Orange does the small favor of running it, then Dalton gets away with grounding on a confetti bucket formation

> 3rd and 10 and how will Orange convert is Dalton to Burkhead, who is stopped before the sticks, then hit in the head for the gift first down because CB Jaylen Watkins leads with the helmet because he's an utter idiot

> Toss to Hill, 2 yards, then 15 more on Bradham who can't make a legal tackle today; to be fair, that call sucked as much as this game

> 10th flag on Green and counting

> Dalton to Boyd, who beats Mills, who never actually looks at the ball when it's in the air; that goes for 29

> Hill for nothing, then again, and he's now got 19 carries for 26 yards; yeesh

> 3rd and 9 and how will Orange convert this time is Dalton to Boyd for 8; they choose to kick the figgie just to get Nugent more involved

> From 26, Nugent makes, and it's 29-0 with 19 minutes left; Orange has scored on every possession today

> Barner shows wheels but can't get past Nugent, setting Green up at the Orange 38 in their continued attempt to avoid a shutout

> Wentz with time, gives up and flips to Ertz for nothing

> Wentz rewards Ertz with an actual throw down the field, and that gets them 20

> From the Orange 18, give to Sproles for 5, then Wentz tries Ertz on a pointless curl, no DPI called either

> 3rd and 5 from the gun is a blitz prayer to Ertz, no chance, and yet again, the rookie QB shows no poise under pressure

> Going for it on 4th because shutouts are fun, Green burns a timeout, and I have no idea who the guy who is in Wentz's jersey is any more

> Going again after the timeout, Wentz to Ertz, wide open in the end zone on a floater, and wow, the TE has now scored twice this year

> Just a defensive breakdown, more than Green competence

> Sturgis connects, and it's 29-7 with 17:30 left

> Speaking as an Ertz owner, I'd like to thank Orange for making my fantasy team's day slightly less than pointless

> With the chance to show an actual spark, Burkhead runs through traffic for 6, so, nope, defense not going to care all day

> Dalton keeps for plenty as the defense combines apathy with incompetence

> Burkhead for 4, clock burning, direct snap tricksy to Hill for 2, and Orange gets what they deserve for confetti bucket plays by having a T go down on friendly fire; that ends the quarter

> 3rd and 4 and will the defense make a stop in this entire wretched game is Dalton to Burkhead for the first, but the RB fumbles at the end of the run, and it's Logan with a nice swipe and hustle play

> From the Green 41, Wentz to Sproles for 6, incomplete, then moves the sticks to DG-B

> Terrible overthrow pick as Wentz forces a deep ball to Ertz; Orange fumbles the ball back into possession, and yeah, if this was an ordinary year and QB situation, we might be seeing the back up by now

> Orange rehabs Burkhead because why not for 5, then a batted ball as the DL decides what the hell, not getting pressure anyway

> 3rd and 5 from the gun is Dalton with time and missing Boyd, who was wide open; make no mistake about this game; Orange hasn't really played well, either

> P Kevin Huber finally works today, with Sproles getting 7 yards on the return; 13 minutes left in this travesty

> Wentz in throw every down mode hits Ertz for 7 yards, then tempos to move the sticks with Sproles

> Wentz after pressure to DG-B for 3, and it's telling that no one goes deep on scramble drills

> Wentz to Ertz for 3, then to Turner to move the sticks against a blitz; that was professional

> From the Orange 35, batted ball, Wentz catches it and runs for 7 yards; at least he competes

> Run to Sproles for 2, ended with a helmet to the head, as if that gets called

> 3rd and 1 clock stoppage on Green timeout (odd), then dropped by DG-B on a collision inside, with both the WR and LB Vontaze Burfict down in the aftermath

> DG-B limps off, and on 4th and 1 from the gun, Wentz audibles to a slant to Agholor, who moves the sticks like a real live WR

> From the Orange 18, Sproles for 7 yards, then Wentz tries Burton on a terrible screen that doesn't work

> 3rd and 3 from the Orange 11 is Wentz with time, then running into the sack; Turner get wiped out on a non-call

> 4th and 5 from the Orange 13 is Wentz to Agholor, moves the sticks again; good throw

> From the 5, Sproles to the 2 as if running plats with the score the way it is could be defensible

> Sproles gets it in from the 2, and good for him, I guess

> Sturgis connects, and it's Orange 29, Green 14, more effort late than anticipated; 15 play drive in 6 minutes isn't exactly a quick strike offense, though

> With 6:53 left, Orange calls time to make sure they aren't prone to the super surprising onsides kick play

> Green tries it anyway, and it's scooped up without incident by LaFell

> Burkhead for 6 on a flip; bit odd they haven't gone back to Hill late after a fumble

> Orange tries another confetti bucket play on a throw to tackle Jake Fisher, who fumbles it on Bradham's pressure, and Green suddenly has the ball again at their own 44 with 6:14 left

> Fisher gets hurt as well, which means that Orange is going to lose this game even while winning

> Marvin Lewis is a super genius, honestly

> Wentz with time to Sproles for 8, need pace, then hits Burton for an out to move the sticks; had the ball not led him out, could have had more yards

> From the Orange 38, Wentz tipped again by Karlos Dunlap, then Wentz hits Sproles on a slow and in-bounds screen for 3 yards of gah

> 3rd and 7 from the Orange 35 is long clock, then Wentz to Turner against a blitz; ahead of the sticks

> 4th and 3 with 4 minutes left is last play time, and Wentz is picked off by Burfict to close things up

> Just an I have no idea throw from Wentz for Pick #3, and while the kid kept trying today, he's just been a turnover machine

> Hill from the Green 20 loses 5 just to make sure his day is a touchdown only mess for his fantasy owners; Green timeout

> Hill gets back the 5, forcing the final Eagle timeout

> Movement to force a long third, then Hill anyway for 5 more, because Lewis needs to force feed Nugent some more

> On the last play that could be said to continue drama (as if), Nugent connects from 38 on a bounce job, and it's Orange 32, Green 14

> Honestly, I have no idea why Nugent has a job, but he's got 14 points today, as if anyone is playing him in fantasy

> Smallwood stopped at his 12, then Wentz trying to avoid the 4-INT day starts with Ertz for 8

> Sproles for 6, with Orange giving up the meaningless yards

> Wentz to Turner for 14, out of bounds before the 2 minute drill

> Wentz to Turner for a yard, and that was a bad ball that the kid caught anyway; he's shown enough to keep playing

> Wentz to Burton for 12, stat paddery

> Wentz to Turner, finally can't catch one as it's on one had

> Wentz to Barner for two off blitz pressure, came through clean

> Wentz to Ertz, moves the sticks, makes his fantasy people happy

> Wentz to Ertz, simple out, stat paddery writ large

> Wentz tries Burton, overthrows into triple coverage, if that wasn't a throwaway, another inexplicable decision

> From the Orange 24, Wentz out of bounds near Turner, the QB is over 300 yards on 60 attempts

> Wentz throws it up for grabs on 4th down on a full blitz near Burton, and the stat paddery is over

> Bengals win for the first time since October, I can't see the Eagles winning again until 2017, and on the plus side, our rookie QB is still healthy; otherwise, I have nothing good to say about this laundry right now

Top 10 NFL Week 13 Ad Questions

Pig Me
10) If I wear Duluth pants, will I inspire people to throw pigs at me?

9) Given the physical condition of many of their workers, should the Post Office make their seasonal ads about hippos?

8) Is anyone else hearing "Hell" when an airline says "you can go wherever you like"?

7) Seeing how Macy's very business is a strong risk, should they be spending their ad dollars on convincing kids that Santa's real?

6) Honestly, doesn't Samuel L. Jackson have enough money by now, so that he might just say no to terrible credit cards?

5) If trucks starting sounds like Christmas to you, isn't that a sign of psychological problems?

4) Is it a bit of a tell that McDonald's spends most of the time in their ad about an all-day breakfast talking about anything but the food?

3) If I pay more for my home insurance, can I keep Flo from Progressive off my property?

2) Shouldn't a beer that's "brewed for people who go the extra mile" not worry about how many carbs is in it?

1) Will Hyundai strip and re-clothe women in the showroom, and if so, how does that help to increase sales?

Thursday, December 1, 2016

Week 13 NFL Picks: Let's Reward Effort

Snake Face
With five weeks left in the regular season, I need all kinds of hotness to break even, and it's pretty obvious that, like many other things, isn't likely to happen. Along with an Eagles season that doesn't make me think HC Doug Pederson is going to be a washout, that the country isn't about to embark on a period of historic disaster, and that other issues in my personal life that we're just not going to get into.

But, well, effort is its own reward, right? (Taps mic.) Right?

And with that... on to the picks!

* * * * *

DALLAS (-3) at Minnesota

The Cowboys are the best team in this or any other Universe, and the sooner we all accept that, and President Trump, and the knowledge that all human endeavors end in sweet, sweet death and utter indifference, the sooner we will all be happier. Also, the Viking offense isn't good enough to win this game, even at home.

Cowboys 24, Vikings 20

KANSAS CITY (+4) at Atlanta


The Chiefs are coming off a car crash of an overtime win against the Broncos, and have to go into a loud dome against a Falcon team that just handled the desperate Cards. Having said all of that, I think the Chiefs defense is just coming into its own, especially with Justin Houston coming off the edge. With Julio Jones getting more or less handled by the great Marcus Peters, the road team gets it done.

Chiefs 23, Falcons 20

DETROIT (+6) at New Orleans


Just too many points to give for what could be a last serve wins kind of game. Give me the Lions to make the late cover.

Saints 34, Lions 31

LA Rams at NEW ENGLAND (-13.5)


I'm not ready to imagine Jared Goff doing much of anything on the road against a Bill Belichick defense, especially when the Patriots are coming off an escape win in New York. It also doesn't help that the Ram defense got absolutely trucked last week.

Patriots 34, Rams 16

DENVER (-4) at Jacksonville


I know, road team with a shaky offense in Florida heat in December, seems like all kinds of trap game. But with the overtime loss on SNF at home, Denver has no more margin for error, and the Jags are the AFC's answer to homecoming week. Even on the road.

Broncos 23, Jaguars 13

HOUSTON (+6.5) at Green Bay


I'm not counting on the Pack suddenly figuring it all out and racing down the stretch to a playoff spot, just because they beat the shockingly unprepared Eagles on the road on MNF. Houston's coming off a bad loss at home, so I'm looking for a little bounce and a cover, if not more.

Packers 24, Texans 20

Philadelphia at CINCINNATI (+1)


Which team wants it less? I'll take the home team in this battle of profound disappointments, mostly because they've got an extra day of rest, and the Eagle defense suddenly looks like it's drank too many Magic Smoothies from the Nero Kelly Era. Oh, and the Bengal DBs might fall asleep covering these circus animals that call themselves WRs.

Bengals 27, Eagles 23

Miami at BALTIMORE (-3.5)


The Dolphins are the NFL's best bad team, having used a cupcake schedule to get to the playoff periphery. Baltimore's far from a juggernaut, but at home, in cold weather, with their way too into it fans in full howl, I think it starts to get away from them.

Ravens 23, Dolphins 17

SAN FRANCISCO (+1) at Chicago


Lots of folks have been having joy at the Niner season, as if it were all Colin Kaepernick's fault that the Niners are terrible. The truth is he's actually been pretty damned good over much of it, especially recently. It's not his fault that his coach is a manifestation of the innovator's curse, or that his team was put together by one of the worst GMs in the business. At least this week, Kaepernick gets to win a game and put up monster fantasy numbers, because Chicago is nearly as bad, and even more injured.

Niners 31, Bears 20

Buffalo at OAKLAND (-3)


The magic year for the Raiders continues, because the Bills defense isn't good enough to stop them on the road, especially if they are smart enough to be patient behind their near best in class offensive live. I'm still not sure that they are going to win this division, but the breaks have definitely been going their way.

Raiders 30, Bills 24

NY Giants at PITTSBURGH (-6)


A big number for an up and down Steeler team to cover, but the offense has been aces at home, and the Giants have been doing it with mirrors.

Steelers 34, Bills 24

Washington at ARIZONA (-2.5)


Arizona loses games when they can't protect the QB, but DC isn't all that special at rushing the QB, so the home team gets it done. Besides, this isn't exactly an easy road trip.

Cardinals 27, Racial Slurs 20

Tampa at SAN DIEGO (-3.5)


Bucs are definitely on an upswing after last week's smothering shocker of the Seahawks, but I'm not buying that game as sustainable. Chargers have been surprising in recent weeks, especially in line play. Probably one of the better games of the day.

Chargers 24, Bucs 20

Carolina at SEATTLE (-6.5)


Despite Carolina's disappointing year, a clear signature game, and fairly fascinating. Seattle's line play is scary enough to make what should have been a clear path deep into the NFC playoffs problematic, but the Panther defense, especially the secondary, isn't going to be up to the task. I'm not in love with the number, but going against Russell Wilson at home isn't fun.

Seahawks 31, Panthers 23

INDIANAPOLIS (-2) at NY Jets


NY actually played a very solid game last week against the Patriots, but getting up for a non-rival isn't the same thing, especially in front of bitter night fans in December. Colts still have something to play for, and QB Andrew Luck will have fresh legs from a week off due to concussion. At this point in the season, that's a major help.

Colts 27, Jets 20

Last week: 8-7

Year: 73-98-4

Career: 832-849-53